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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember: The only successful CON government by-election de
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember: The only successful CON government by-election defence since 1988 is still subject to an Electoral Commission investigation
Partly because far fewer of their MPs have died in office the Tories have not faced many by-elections since returning to power in 2010. They lost to UKIP in Clacton and Rochester but held on in June 2014 in Newark.
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http://order-order.com/2016/09/22/new-labour-friends-israel-poster-girl-opposed-creation-israel/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/calais-jungle-volunteers-sex-refugees-allegations-facebook-care4calais-a7312066.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_(Yorks)_by-election,_1989
The media environment in the US is brutal - Bernie would have been absolutely crucified from the moment he won the nomination, the GOP would have rallied around trump much quicker - and the electoral map would have looked quite different.
Trump less competitive in the rust belt, more competitive in the moderately wealthy blue states.
Surburban America's version of Worcester woman would go Trump vs. Bernie.
Right now, she's going Clinton vs. Trump.
I'm sure the SVP will get more votes, though. They have the same problem as the AfD, Front National, Sweden Democrats, and others - they are pretty good at getting 20-30%, but over 50% of the electorate hate them with a passion, so they never find allies. The exception is in Denmark, where the Danish People's Party went out of its way to be centrist on everything except immigration, and is now tolerated as a partner by the centre-right.
Trump's Ohio campaign chair: Obama caused racism in Ohio
Hollywood is much more of a Channel 4 type personality, so he might quite enjoy it, while Berry is quintessentially BBC.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/550716028293251073
How about £1 a percent, over/under on 17.5%?
£10k @ 1.59
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
(Of course, it's not news when the officer's account matches the bodycam. So, we don't get to see that most of the time they match.)
https://i.redd.it/lxhltw0snw5x.jpg
Mr Duncan said he believed the now foreign secretary, who is his boss, wanted to lose narrowly and become the "heir apparent" to David Cameron.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37439890
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/778956806429220864
As far as Witney is concerned, it's going to be a mountain for any party to displace the incumbent Conservatives. When Tony Blair stood down in Sedgefield, the resulting by-election saw the Labour vote drop by about a quarter with the LDs the main but by no means the sole beneficiaries.
A similar drop would take the Conservative vote back to 45% which is what Cameron won at his first election in 2001 so that seems reasonable.
Back then, a strong Labour were clear second in front of the LDs with the two parties hovering up about 48% between them leaving little for other candidates.
Given UKIP will be in the mix along with the Greens and others, it seems less likely a single candidate will be able to take the bulk of the 55% non-Conservative vote and achieve something akin to a Romsey in 2001 where the Conservative vote fell only slightly but the Labour vote collapsed to the LDs allowing Sandra Gidley to win the seat.
We'll know in just over four weeks but it's vital for the LDs or another party to establish themselves clearly and credibly as the main alternative to squeeze out the other parties.
Do you want to eat her doughnut ?
"China's Eton envy - why they love our posh boys
Our new elite is taking over the world, and we’re modelling them on you
Yuan Ren"
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/chinas-eton-envy-why-they-love-our-posh-boys/
"As a devout Remainer, I was disturbed by the EU referendum result. But one silver lining is seeing Priti Patel running the Department for International Development (Dfid). She is an uncompromising character who has not shied away from criticising Britain’s absurd aid giveaway, even once calling for closure of the ministry she now runs.
She was right then and is right now. Dfid struts around like an offshoot of the charity sector, rather than an arm of government, and should be folded back into the Foreign Office...
Ms Patel seems prepared to take them on. Sources say she is starting by trying to shift attitudes, admitting that too much aid is spent on the wrong things or does not reach the world’s poor and needy. I have seen this countless times on three different continents.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/21/with-a-brexiteer-in-charge-the-uks-ghastly-hypocritical-wasteful/
Boris, having established his credentials as the person who won the referendum for Leave, says, having now closely examined all the options, he has concluded that staying in the EU is the best option after all.
He'd only do this when May is in deep trouble up Brexit Creek with tumbling polling numbers for her and the party. It would destabilse her and be his route to the leadership if enough MPs and membership supported him.
In my dreams ...
Anyway, does anyone know why it should be thought that releasing that photo of HRC with La Moretz would be a good idea? I have seen three day old stiffs look better than Clinton does in that photo.
The periodic table of elements and the countries they were discovered in. https://t.co/hzwt6HNzTs
Mogg, Kendall, Lamb, Lucas, Brewer on Question Time.
Live police press conference from Charlotte
http://video.foxnews.com/v/2553193403001/#sp=watch-live
But I wanted to spare PB sensibilities, especially after Clinton's doughnut.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ytterby
https://www.quora.com/What-chemical-elements-have-been-discovered-in-Sweden
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/744654232469504001
Select case Victory
Case : Yorkshire: They are champions
Case : Middlesex: They are champions
Case : Somerset
If Middlesex and Yorkshire Draw They are Champions
Else : Middlesex are Champions
Endcase
(I'll get me coat...)
You hate us! You really hate us! https://t.co/2FZpsrc0Ar
Media ratings over time
Boris Johnson only campaigned to leave the EU to set himself up as the next Conservative leader, Sir Alan Duncan said the day before June's referendum.
Sir Alan said he believed the now foreign secretary, who is his current boss, wanted to lose narrowly and be the "heir apparent" to David Cameron.
And he questioned the motives of Mr Johnson in backing the campaign to exit the EU.
"I think there are a lot of Leave people who don't believe it, and I've always thought that Boris's wish was to lose by one so that he could be the heir apparent without having to have all the... you know, s - h - i - t of clearing up all the mess, that's always been my view of Boris."