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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ConHome’s Paul Goodman says the Tories should unilaterally

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    @TOPPING

    Today the Onion has an excellent portrayal of the impartial, objective view that academia is taking of the GWB Presidency. It is genuinely funny: http://www.theonion.com/articles/history-licking-its-chops-to-judge-george-w-bush,31921/

    On the other hand it is incredibly hard to disagree with their assessment!

    I recall "Not the 9 o'clock news" having a skit where Reagan was enthusiastically repeating what was being said in his ear without thinking. It finished "Cup cakes and candy bars, isn't it incredible that a man this stupid could become President of the United States."

    Completely unfair on Reagan but for Bush, oh so appropriate.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Maybe the best solution is for the Tories to pull out of the coalition and let the LDs operate as a minority government.
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    edited April 2013
    Government response to Stafford

    Responding to the statement, shadow health secretary Andy Burnham said the NHS needed to learn from the "darkest hours of its past", but said the government's response "fell short" of what was needed.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/house-of-commons-21941152

    I cannot measure the loathing I have for Burnham and his labour "24 hours to save the NHS" party.
    It happened on your watch. You did nothing and yet you dare criticise others.

    You.....utter utter hypocritical bash>|€¥^ard

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    @DavidL

    all of which begs the question as to how "safe" UK-based Daily Mash, etc will be under our new enlightened press regime.

    I foresee a "Brass Eye" scenario before too long....
  • Maybe the best solution is for the Tories to pull out of the coalition and let the LDs operate as a minority government.

    I would approve such a thing, this is totally unrelated to me holding betting slips at 100/1 and 50/1 that Nick Clegg will be our next PM
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I do think that the chances of North Korea launching some form of military strike in any direction are being seriously underrated right now (the general tenor of the news reports is "they don't really mean it"). The regime seems highly unstable and shows no sign of going quietly.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Edin_Rokz said:

    DavidL said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Don't normally make personal remarks so I hope this one doesn't come across as snide or politically motivated: is it just my imagination or is Mr Cameron wearing very well for a Prime Minister? Normally the responsibilities of the post seem to age people very quickly.



    Er! I do hope that you are not accusing David Cameron of acting like a Prime Minister.

    Anne, I think you have to admit that you rather walked into that one!

    But yes, he does seem to wear his responsibilities lightly and bounce back well from the odd disaster.

    Anyone remember Silly Putty, a silicon based gloop that when shaped into a ball, could be thrown around only you were never quite sure where it would end up? However, when you hit the ball with a hammer, it would crack up.

  • antifrank said:

    I do think that the chances of North Korea launching some form of military strike in any direction are being seriously underrated right now (the general tenor of the news reports is "they don't really mean it"). The regime seems highly unstable and shows no sign of going quietly.

    What are your thoughts on this Paddy Power market?

    How many more North Korean nuclear tests in 2013?

    Must be confirmed that a nuclear bomb signature has been detected by USGS and must be reported in a national UK broadsheet daily print newspaper.

    None 4/9

    One 13/8

    Two 8/1

    Three or more 16/1

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/novelty-bets/north-korea-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1216881
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    @Edin_Rokz
    It is seriously tempting to see how far this shading, box within a box, will go isn't it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TheScreamingEagles Without having given the matter much thought, all options above None look good value to me. North Korea are in their "going off the rails" phase, and launching a nuclear test, or two, or three is a good way of emphasising their bad boy credentials. It's the equivalent of Justin Bieber getting tattoos.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Quinnipiac 2016 GOP nomination

    the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, and Bob McDonnell for whom would you vote?
    •Marco Rubio 19%
    •Paul Ryan 17%
    •Rand Paul 15%
    •Chris Christie 14%
    •Jeb Bush 10%
    •Bobby Jindal 3%
    •Scott Walker 2%
    •Bob McDonnell 1%
    •Don’t know 18%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    @TOPPING

    Agreed. I think Cameron and Gove had the right instinctive reaction to the Leveson embarrassment and will regret chickening out under luvvie pressure. Even if there was a risk that Labour and the Lib Dems were going to bring in something worse some things are worth standing up for.

    A sad day for what is supposed to be a mature democracy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    PPP 2016 GOP nomination

    •Marco Rubio 21% (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
    •Rand Paul 17% (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
    •Chris Christie 15% (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
    •Paul Ryan 12% (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
    •Jeb Bush 12% (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
    •Rick Santorum 5% [4%] (12%)
    •Bobby Jindal 4% (4%) {3%} (3%)
    •Rick Perry 2% (3%) {2%}
    •Susana Martinez 1% (1%) {2%}
  • antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Without having given the matter much thought, all options above None look good value to me. North Korea are in their "going off the rails" phase, and launching a nuclear test, or two, or three is a good way of emphasising their bad boy credentials. It's the equivalent of Justin Bieber getting tattoos.

    Can you refrain from mentioning the name of J*stin B*eber.

    Having been once forced to attend one of his concerts, the mere mention of his name, makes my ears bleed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    @TSE

    What kind of pop star lives in a dam?

    Justin Beaver!

    (I'll get me coat... two hours late!)
  • @TSE

    What kind of pop star lives in a dam?

    Justin Beaver!

    (I'll get me coat... two hours late!)

    In the future, don't bother removing your coat.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic, The Signal And The Noise by Nate Silver is a very good read. I'm probably the last person on here to read it, but in case I'm second last, I can firmly recommend it.

    It has some very wise words to say relevant to political betting, particularly about methods of prediction.
  • @HUYFD

    Thanks, Hyufd.

    There seems to be something faddish in the GOP make-up. We saw this repeatedly in the last cycle. Now the fad seems to be for Rand Paul.

    How long do you give it?
  • Scott_P said:

    Aintree cards look tasty! Bloody hard to pick from, mind.

    Pricewise Aintree Day 1 »2.00 L'Unique »4.15 Anquetta

    Thanks. Wasn't looking at either of those but PW probably means they will be trading lower tomorrow lunchtime.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,078
    DavidL said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Don't normally make personal remarks so I hope this one doesn't come across as snide or politically motivated: is it just my imagination or is Mr Cameron wearing very well for a Prime Minister? Normally the responsibilities of the post seem to age people very quickly.

    Er! I do hope that you are not accusing David Cameron of acting like a Prime Minister.

    Anne, I think you have to admit that you rather walked into that one!

    But yes, he does seem to wear his responsibilities lightly and bounce back well from the odd disaster.

    With my eyes open, DavidL, that's one reason why I was a bit hesitant about making the remark. I did wonder whether it's just not a long enough period yet - normally one gauges that at the end of a premiership - but (to my eyes at least) Mr Clegg's responsibilities have aged him visibly already.
  • The win-win situation for the LDs is for the coalition to end purely for internal Conservative party reasons.

    O/T Ayn Rand/Rand Paul/Paul Ryan - I get confused which is which!
  • Scott_P said:

    Aintree cards look tasty! Bloody hard to pick from, mind.

    Pricewise Aintree Day 1 »2.00 L'Unique »4.15 Anquetta

    Damn Pricewise!

    I had L'Unique marked out. It was 12/1 earlier. Had to scramble to get tens just now.

    Btw, I have backed Countrywide Flame in the Aintree Hurdle (3.05). I got on at fives but it is generally fours now. Even so, I reckon it's value. It is a very consistent horse, and it is hard to think it will be out of the frame. (The New One hasn't entirely convinced me yet.)
  • Aintree cards look tasty! Bloody hard to pick from, mind.

    3.05 Countrywide Flame ew.

    Don't say you weren't told.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    @Roger - the Liverpuddlian Tory on CH4 was being talked through by the interviewer! Typical rudeness by GuruNitFur wotsisname.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    edited April 2013
    Blackburn, with a game in hand, are only one point above the championship relegation places.

    Yet they are 9/2 with William Hill to get relegated.

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3171257/English-Championship---Relegation.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    @HYUFD

    One scenario is that Miliband will be PM but only for 18 months or so.
  • antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Without having given the matter much thought, all options above None look good value to me. North Korea are in their "going off the rails" phase, and launching a nuclear test, or two, or three is a good way of emphasising their bad boy credentials. It's the equivalent of Justin Bieber getting tattoos.

    On the subject of North Korea, what are the "Stop The War Coalition" doing about it, or are they in favour of North Korea starting one?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Peter the Punter - Until Iowa, but he will almost certainly be a presence thereafter nonetheless, the Paul brand now represents close to 1/4 of the GOP!
  • antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Without having given the matter much thought, all options above None look good value to me. North Korea are in their "going off the rails" phase, and launching a nuclear test, or two, or three is a good way of emphasising their bad boy credentials. It's the equivalent of Justin Bieber getting tattoos.

    On the subject of North Korea, what are the "Stop The War Coalition" doing about it, or are they in favour of North Korea starting one?

    Well CND are blaming Obama/America

    North Korea's nuclear test: a product of US policy

    http://www.cnduk.org/cnd-media/item/1580-north-koreas-nuclear-test-a-product-of-us-policy
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, have put on a little sum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    edited April 2013

    antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Without having given the matter much thought, all options above None look good value to me. North Korea are in their "going off the rails" phase, and launching a nuclear test, or two, or three is a good way of emphasising their bad boy credentials. It's the equivalent of Justin Bieber getting tattoos.

    On the subject of North Korea, what are the "Stop The War Coalition" doing about it, or are they in favour of North Korea starting one?

    And here's Stop the War's take

    The escalating tension over North Korea, which has led to nuclear tests by the regime, is a product of a long term increase in sanctions and other measures against the North Korea, and a recent surge of US and South Korean military activity in the area. Under Operation Foal Eagle, 40,000 US and South Korean troops have been deployed in the region in the last few weeks, backed up by US submarines, battleships and bombers.....

    ....We call on the US to stop stoking the tension, end its provocative military exercises, drop the sanctions and seek dialogue rather than confrontation in the region.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-UqvixBlA8mO7h9Odg53q_ApYWH0ec7p8MYk_nQLPCE/edit
  • Aintree cards look tasty! Bloody hard to pick from, mind.


    3.05 Countrywide Flame ew.

    Don't say you weren't told.
    I've not deserted Oscar Whisky.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TheScreamingEagles The bottom of the Championship table is incredibly tight. Derby, who are 10th, are not completely safe.

    Ipswich are at 9/1 on Betfair to be relegated, which given that they are only 3 points above the drop zone is generous, though it should be noted their defence is holding up well at present.

    Blackburn (and Ipswich) might make good trading bets. Ipswich are away to Derby then home to Hull, who are second, so they are quite likely to see their relegation odds shorten over the next two games. Blackburn are away to Sheffield Wednesday next, so if you think their form is continue to languish, they would make a good trading bet.
  • @Lucian

    "I've not deserted Oscar Whisky."

    I have. It ran a shocker at Cheltenham. There's been no explanation. Can't forgive him that.
  • Test
  • HYUFD said:

    Peter the Punter - Until Iowa, but he will almost certainly be a presence thereafter nonetheless, the Paul brand now represents close to 1/4 of the GOP!

    Yes, I am sure you are right, HUYFD.

    The funny thing is that Paul's brand of so-called libetarianism appeals in some respects to democrat types.

    Interesting phenomenon.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Bundestag opinion poll:

    Forsa:

    CDU/CSU: 40%
    SPD: 24%
    Greens: 15%
    Linke: 8%
    FDP: 5%
    Pirates: 3%
    Others: 5%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
  • antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles The bottom of the Championship table is incredibly tight. Derby, who are 10th, are not completely safe.

    Ipswich are at 9/1 on Betfair to be relegated, which given that they are only 3 points above the drop zone is generous, though it should be noted their defence is holding up well at present.

    Blackburn (and Ipswich) might make good trading bets. Ipswich are away to Derby then home to Hull, who are second, so they are quite likely to see their relegation odds shorten over the next two games. Blackburn are away to Sheffield Wednesday next, so if you think their form is continue to languish, they would make a good trading bet.

    Those are very good points and tips.

    Blackburn getting relegated last year was very profitable.

    It is conceivable Blackburn could have more managers than points before the end of the season.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Without having given the matter much thought, all options above None look good value to me. North Korea are in their "going off the rails" phase, and launching a nuclear test, or two, or three is a good way of emphasising their bad boy credentials. It's the equivalent of Justin Bieber getting tattoos.

    On the subject of North Korea, what are the "Stop The War Coalition" doing about it, or are they in favour of North Korea starting one?

    And here's Stop the War's take

    The escalating tension over North Korea, which has led to nuclear tests by the regime, is a product of a long term increase in sanctions and other measures against the North Korea, and a recent surge of US and South Korean military activity in the area. Under Operation Foal Eagle, 40,000 US and South Korean troops have been deployed in the region in the last few weeks, backed up by US submarines, battleships and bombers.....

    ....We call on the US to stop stoking the tension, end its provocative military exercises, drop the sanctions and seek dialogue rather than confrontation in the region.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-UqvixBlA8mO7h9Odg53q_ApYWH0ec7p8MYk_nQLPCE/edit
    Yes. North Korea threatening to nuke the USA is clearly America's fault.
  • Goodman's idea is all about the fantasy that if the Tories talk like UKIP for 6 months ( because they can't act like UKIP with no majority) they'll romp home. This ignores many things not least that since they've recently talked like UKIP UKIP have continued to climb.

    1. Why give the LD's 7 ,months to pretend the government was nothing to do with them.

    2. Why try and pass a painful budget with no majority ?

    3. Why establish your self as a poor coalition partner unless you are sure another coalition won't be needed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. Socrates, quite.

    I'm not sure North Korea can necessarily be considered a nation of peaceful restraint.
  • Cameron has upset the Lib Dems tonight.

    He's done a piece in the Telegraph saying events in Korea prove we need a replacement for Trident.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    DavidL said:

    @TOPPING

    Today the Onion has an excellent portrayal of the impartial, objective view that academia is taking of the GWB Presidency. It is genuinely funny: http://www.theonion.com/articles/history-licking-its-chops-to-judge-george-w-bush,31921/

    On the other hand it is incredibly hard to disagree with their assessment!

    I recall "Not the 9 o'clock news" having a skit where Reagan was enthusiastically repeating what was being said in his ear without thinking. It finished "Cup cakes and candy bars, isn't it incredible that a man this stupid could become President of the United States."

    Completely unfair on Reagan but for Bush, oh so appropriate.

    Reagan wasn't a great a president as some like to make out, but it is still hugely unfair to compare him in the same bracket as George W. Bush.
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Sky breaking


    The North Korean army says it has "ratified" a merciless attack against the United States, potentially involving a "cutting-edge" nuclear strike.

    "The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the North Korean military said in a statement on state news agency KCNA.

    War could break out "today or tomorrow," the statement said, quoting a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

    "The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.

    "The US had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation."

    Ooo errr.......
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Socrates, quite.

    I'm not sure North Korea can necessarily be considered a nation of peaceful restraint.

    I'm pretty sure if Stop the War had been about in the 1940s, they would blame the Soviet takeover of Eastern Europe on US aggression. (In fact, I bet some of their members were and did.)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited April 2013
    Mr. Curcuit,

    You cannot come on to this site and criticise the Lib Dems at least not in such a fashion. You will be barred from the site.
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Come to think of it how is N.Korea going to achieve a " merciless attack" on the USA with errr.... 3 1/2 nukes

    Mmmm....
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This is great for anyone betting on 2016:

    The question for someone considering whether or not to support Clinton in 2016 is, will a Clinton 2016 campaign pass the Mark Penn Test? The Mark Penn Test, which I just invented, determines whether or not a person should be trusted with the presidency, based solely on one criterion: Whether or not they pay Mark Penn to do anything for their campaign. Paying Mark Penn means you’ve failed the Mark Penn Test.

    http://www.salon.com/2013/04/03/hillary_2016_and_the_mark_penn_test/
  • Blimey

    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    Clear statement of intent from Dave on #Trident. 'Security of our nation is worth the price' - less than 1.5pc of annual benefits bill
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    moses said:

    Come to think of it how is N.Korea going to achieve a " merciless attack" on the USA with errr.... 3 1/2 nukes

    Mmmm....

    By having more than 3 1/2 nukes?

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    moses said:


    The North Korean army says it has "ratified" a merciless attack against the United States, potentially involving a "cutting-edge" nuclear strike.

    "The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the North Korean military said in a statement on state news agency KCNA.

    War could break out "today or tomorrow," the statement said, quoting a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

    "The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.

    "The US had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation."

    I don't claim to be a great expert in military strategy, but isn't the general consensus that it's not a bad idea to attempt to achieve both tactical and strategic surprise if you're planning to launch an unprovoked attack, especially on an adversary which is about four orders of magnitude more powerful than you are?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Miss Fitalass, I never know what Oborne's going to say next. I'm not sure if that makes him utterly impartial or slightly bonkers.

    Mr. Moses, I saw that just before logging on here. Glad I'm not in Seoul right now.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Cameron has upset the Lib Dems tonight.

    He's done a piece in the Telegraph saying events in Korea prove we need a replacement for Trident.

    And do what with it?
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    By having more than 3 1/2 nukes?

    Ok 4 1/2 nukes then
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    edited April 2013
    corporeal said:

    Cameron has upset the Lib Dems tonight.

    He's done a piece in the Telegraph saying events in Korea prove we need a replacement for Trident.

    And do what with it?
    Annoy the Lib Dems?

    (I'm a Tory who would rather see the money for a replacement for Trident spent on conventional forces and weapons)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    moses said:


    The North Korean army says it has "ratified" a merciless attack against the United States, potentially involving a "cutting-edge" nuclear strike.

    "The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the North Korean military said in a statement on state news agency KCNA.

    War could break out "today or tomorrow," the statement said, quoting a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

    "The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.

    "The US had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation."

    I don't claim to be a great expert in military strategy, but isn't the general consensus that it's not a bad idea to attempt to achieve both tactical and strategic surprise if you're planning to launch an unprovoked attack, especially on an adversary which is about four orders of magnitude more powerful than you are?

    Worked well for Japan - until about 6 months after Pearl Harbor...
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45


    I don't claim to be a great expert in military strategy, but isn't the general consensus that it's not a bad idea to attempt to achieve both tactical and strategic surprise if you're planning to launch an unprovoked attack, especially on an adversary which is about four orders of magnitude more powerful than you are?



    Guess they never taught that in kindergarten. Next announcement is going to be well the Chinese talked us out of it and the USA etc should consider themselves very lucky on this occasion.



  • Paywall

    George Osborne is coming under mounting pressure from the Tory Right to restrict child benefit to two children per family.

    Iain Duncan Smith, the Work and Pensions Secretary, floated the idea last October and rightwingers insisted last night that he was still behind the plan to limit payments. The move followed the disclosure that Michael Philpott had received more than £8,000 a year in child benefits for his 11 children.

    David Davis, a former Tory leadership challenger, said: “I don’t think it is a good idea to make policy on the back of one story. But there is a strong argument to restrict child benefit whether it is to two, three, or four children.”
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    fitalass said:
    Well, quite so. On any objective assessment, there's nothing to disagree with in that article in terms of the ambition and reach of the government, even if you don't actually support what it is trying to do.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    Cameron has upset the Lib Dems tonight.

    He's done a piece in the Telegraph saying events in Korea prove we need a replacement for Trident.

    And do what with it?
    Annoy the Lib Dems?

    (I'm a Tory who would rather see the money for a replacement for Trident spent on conventional forces and weapons)
    I'm fairly certain there are cheaper ways of doing that.
  • moses said:


    The North Korean army says it has "ratified" a merciless attack against the United States, potentially involving a "cutting-edge" nuclear strike.

    "The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the North Korean military said in a statement on state news agency KCNA.

    War could break out "today or tomorrow," the statement said, quoting a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

    "The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.

    "The US had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation."

    I don't claim to be a great expert in military strategy, but isn't the general consensus that it's not a bad idea to attempt to achieve both tactical and strategic surprise if you're planning to launch an unprovoked attack, especially on an adversary which is about four orders of magnitude more powerful than you are?

    Clearly the North Koreans are following the inept strategies and tactics of the pisspoor General, Hannibal.

    Lucky for us they aren't following the strategies and tactics of Gaius Julius Caesar, or we'd be buggered.
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Mr Morris I was in Seoul late last year like you say not the place to be just now.
    The problem has always been as I was told out there the N.Koreans will believe their own rhetoric in the end and then what? They are all quite calm about it but that seems to be what makes some nervous
  • corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Cameron has upset the Lib Dems tonight.

    He's done a piece in the Telegraph saying events in Korea prove we need a replacement for Trident.

    And do what with it?
    Annoy the Lib Dems?

    (I'm a Tory who would rather see the money for a replacement for Trident spent on conventional forces and weapons)
    I'm fairly certain there are cheaper ways of doing that.
    Put a tax on lentils and sandals?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    What replacement for Trident would that be, Mr. Eagles? The only party that is trying to find some credible replacement is the Lib Dems.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    If Kim Jong-Un followed the way of Caesar he'd have been killed some time ago by his own side.

    If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories.

    That does remind me, though, that I need to read some more history.

    Mr. Moses, I would guess they simply have to hope that mutually assured destruction dissuades the North from launching a serious assault.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    On Korea, perhaps the North Korean government is planning to show its population entirely fictitious TV pictures of how they've successfully zapped New York, Washington and Los Angeles. They could do this very cheaply by re-working bits of Independence Day
  • If Kim Jong-Un followed the way of Caesar he'd have been killed some time ago by his own side.

    If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories.

    That does remind me, though, that I need to read some more history.

    Mr. Moses, I would guess they simply have to hope that mutually assured destruction dissuades the North from launching a serious assault.

    Max Hastings' book on the Korean War is very good and highly recommended.
  • What replacement for Trident would that be, Mr. Eagles? The only party that is trying to find some credible replacement is the Lib Dems.

    I'd bring back Polaris.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    Evening all :)

    There have been plenty of people writing the obituary of the Coalition since Day One and, to be fair, it's less than 60% through its supposed life and still hanging in there.

    The denouement or endgame seems far from clear. I can't see the advantage in either Cameron or Clegg wanting to walk away before the 2015 GE campaign though the question remains whether either or both leader is able or willing to persuade their parties to consider the option of Coalition 2 post-2015.

    In the current climate, that seems a tall order. By the spring of 2015, things might look different though it's hard to see how at this time. The best hope the Coalition parties seem to have is the sheer lack of confidence in Labour - that in itself does not guarantee either victory or even the status quo.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. Eagles, I'll consider it, but it sounds shockingly modern.

    At the moment I'm revisiting the first volume of TA Dodge's four part account of Napoleon. Oh, and I'm also revisiting a biography of Septimius Severus that I got ages ago.
  • Hannibal will always be remembered for the ass whooping he received at the Battle of Zama.

    Caesar will always be remembered as the byword for Kings.

    Caesar conquered all.

    Germania, Gaul etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    I'll have to pick one up. Do you think it will be available for people who have existing Ladbrokes accounts ?

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    @moses I once asked a South Korean contact whether the North and the South would ever unite. Yes, he said, and the first thing to do would be to attack Japan. A lot of simmering resentment against Japan for its behaviour during colonisation of Korea.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'll have to pick one up. Do you think it will be available for people who have existing Ladbrokes accounts ?

    I suspect not
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories.

    Would that have involved making a tank out of bits of old cars while smoking a fat Cuban cigar?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    edited April 2013
    Mr Dancer, I can give you a brief and succinct summary on Napoleon, saving you having to read the book.

    Napoleon suffered from what is known as "The John Bercow Complex"

    Napoleon managed to unite most of Europe against him, proving everyone hates the frogs.

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Morris_Dancer

    "If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories."

    HA! An admission at last that Hannibal had the strategic genius of a mentally retarded gerbil. Winning dazzling victories but losing the war is not the sign of a great leader.

    " I need to read some more history"

    Correct, and you could start with how Hannibal ended up as some Levantine's bitch, before he topped himself, probably out of shame.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The Lib Dems are right about Trident.

    Increasing firepower is not the answer.

    Diplomacy must replace warmongering.

    Time for Clegg to be appointed our permanent representative in Pyongyang.
  • @Morris_Dancer

    "If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories."

    HA! An admission at last that Hannibal had the strategic genius of a mentally retarded gerbil. Winning dazzling victories but losing the war is not the sign of a great leader.

    " I need to read some more history"

    Correct, and you could start with how Hannibal ended up as some Levantine's bitch, before he topped himself, probably out of shame.

    Like Scipio, I lured Mr Dancer to his doom.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    I'm a little worried that Kim Jong-Un is not a great advert for the hereditary principle...
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    stodge said:

    The best hope the Coalition parties seem to have is the sheer lack of confidence in Labour

    What "sheer lack of confidence"are you referring to?

    And when you say "Coalition Parties", do you actually mean "The Tories"? Because the Lib Dems will be sure as heck hoping that their tactical voters are willing to see Labour in power.

  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Mr. Moses, I would guess they simply have to hope that mutually assured destruction dissuades the North from launching a serious assault.

    Indeed more likely it will be a stand down but part of the nervousness relates to the fact that they might not. I think the young lad is also short of a lot of common sense as well. If they go for it it would be conventional up to the point they have lost ( US air supremacy within 24 hours even if it took that long) then thy might just lob one at the south. They may see no reason not too at that point.

    Unpredictable leaders and hence rather worrying.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.

    That's somewhat akin to Gordon Brown's second most natural smile.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Mr Dancer, I can give you a brief and succinct summary on Napoleon, saving you having to read the book.

    Napoleon suffered from what is known as "The John Bercow Complex"

    Napoleon managed to unite most of Europe against, proving everyone hates the frogs.

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.

    Second? What's their greatest song?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    I'm a little worried that Kim Jong-Un is not a great advert for the hereditary principle...

    I wouldn't worry. The monarchists have Prince Charles to keep the flame alive.
  • Mr Dancer, I can give you a brief and succinct summary on Napoleon, saving you having to read the book.

    Napoleon suffered from what is known as "The John Bercow Complex"

    Napoleon managed to unite most of Europe against, proving everyone hates the frogs.

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.

    Second? What's their greatest song?
    Dancing Queen.

    Third is Mamma Mia
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Cameron has upset the Lib Dems tonight.

    He's done a piece in the Telegraph saying events in Korea prove we need a replacement for Trident.

    And do what with it?
    Annoy the Lib Dems?

    (I'm a Tory who would rather see the money for a replacement for Trident spent on conventional forces and weapons)
    I'm fairly certain there are cheaper ways of doing that.
    Put a tax on lentils and sandals?
    Well, the last time budgets tried to raise taxes on cider or pasties there was uproar.
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    perdix said:

    @moses I once asked a South Korean contact whether the North and the South would ever unite. Yes, he said, and the first thing to do would be to attack Japan. A lot of simmering resentment against Japan for its behaviour during colonisation of Korea.

    Ah yes quite .....they really do not like the Japanese.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr Dancer, I can give you a brief and succinct summary on Napoleon, saving you having to read the book.

    Napoleon suffered from what is known as "The John Bercow Complex"

    Napoleon managed to unite most of Europe against, proving everyone hates the frogs.

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.

    Second? What's their greatest song?
    Dancing Queen.

    Third is Mamma Mia
    That you can get those incessant nerve-grating melodies stuck in my head just by mentioning their titles shows how annoying a curse on music those Swedish airheads were.
  • Just as UKip members were excitedly slapping each other on their collective backs in excitement about their future electoral prospects, the EDL's Stephen Lennon, also known as Tommy Robinson, comes out and says that he supports them.


    http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/blog/article/2581/illegal-immigrant-backs-ukip
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Morris_Dancer

    "If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories."

    HA! An admission at last that Hannibal had the strategic genius of a mentally retarded gerbil. Winning dazzling victories but losing the war is not the sign of a great leader.

    " I need to read some more history"

    Correct, and you could start with how Hannibal ended up as some Levantine's bitch, before he topped himself, probably out of shame.

    Like Scipio, I lured Mr Dancer to his doom.
    *Sniggers*

    I saw his silly comment on All Fools Day about you and I, Mr. Eagles.

  • Socrates said:

    Mr Dancer, I can give you a brief and succinct summary on Napoleon, saving you having to read the book.

    Napoleon suffered from what is known as "The John Bercow Complex"

    Napoleon managed to unite most of Europe against, proving everyone hates the frogs.

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.

    Second? What's their greatest song?
    Dancing Queen.

    Third is Mamma Mia
    That you can get those incessant nerve-grating melodies stuck in my head just by mentioning their titles shows how annoying a curse on music those Swedish airheads were.
    You really do have appallingly bad taste in music.
  • @Morris_Dancer

    "If he'd copied Hannibal he would have launched a surprise attack into South Korea and won a series of dazzling victories."

    HA! An admission at last that Hannibal had the strategic genius of a mentally retarded gerbil. Winning dazzling victories but losing the war is not the sign of a great leader.

    " I need to read some more history"

    Correct, and you could start with how Hannibal ended up as some Levantine's bitch, before he topped himself, probably out of shame.

    Like Scipio, I lured Mr Dancer to his doom.
    *Sniggers*

    I saw his silly comment on All Fools Day about you and I, Mr. Eagles.

    That comment was emailed to me by another PBer.

    Like you, I assumed it was his attempt at All Fools Days humour
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    fitalass said:
    Next week in your Daily Telegraph Peter Oborne explains why David Cameron is a charlatam masquerading as a Tory and a man who has permanently debased British politics.

    The week after that his article will focus on why David Cameron is the finest PM the UK has ever had.

    Then it's back to the pub.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    moses said:

    Mr. Moses, I would guess they simply have to hope that mutually assured destruction dissuades the North from launching a serious assault.

    Indeed more likely it will be a stand down but part of the nervousness relates to the fact that they might not. I think the young lad is also short of a lot of common sense as well. If they go for it it would be conventional up to the point they have lost ( US air supremacy within 24 hours even if it took that long) then thy might just lob one at the south. They may see no reason not too at that point.

    Unpredictable leaders and hence rather worrying.

    With the number of artillery pieces they have facing towards Seoul, the north shouldn't need to nuke South Korea (excepting certain surprise scenarios). The nukes are there as a bargaining counter against, well, the rest of the world. And those bargaining chips have worked really well so far.

    The north could have 700,000 troops and 2,000 tanks within 100km of the DMZ - http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/

    One for Sunil: the Pyongyang Metro - http://www.pyongyang-metro.com/index.html
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Mr Dancer, I can give you a brief and succinct summary on Napoleon, saving you having to read the book.

    Napoleon suffered from what is known as "The John Bercow Complex"

    Napoleon managed to unite most of Europe against, proving everyone hates the frogs.

    His only redeeming feature, he inspired ABBA's second greatest ever song.

    Second? What's their greatest song?
    Dancing Queen.

    Third is Mamma Mia
    That you can get those incessant nerve-grating melodies stuck in my head just by mentioning their titles shows how annoying a curse on music those Swedish airheads were.
    You really do have appallingly bad taste in music.
    Neil McCormick described them well:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/neil-mccormick/3557871/Abba-no-thank-you-for-the-music.html
  • I guess the one good thing about a war in Korea is that we'll get a new series of MASH
This discussion has been closed.