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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ConHome’s Paul Goodman says the Tories should unilaterally end the coalition in Sept 2014
The @paulgoodmanch call for the Tories to end coalition in Sept 2014. goo.gl/1X8bz twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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TSE (a Tory) makes a fair comment that could be right or wrong
tim (not a Tory) immediately chooses to equate Tory backbenchers with the mentally ill
What conclusions can we draw from this?
I guess it could have been anywhere. Knew it was bad for those without support but it appears to be truly awful. 9 year olds injected with heroin and then abused....this is scandalous.
Every government and council is guilty for doing little or nothing to end these issues.
I rather think TSE has got it right: it's the 2015 Budget which is key. If the economy is doing well, both parties will want to grab the credit. If it's not, they'll both be hoping something will turn up. Either way, rocking the boat over six months early would be a gamble too far.
That's optimistic. A GE campaign usually takes up those six months up so I think a little more preparation time will be required on both sides.
The cold hard truth is that unless something changes radically then neither the lib dems or the tories will have any appetite to go to the electorate early so the govt. will stay in whatever ramshackle form even if either party hits eject. Be it minority, confidence and supply or plain old zombie autopilot.
That's why it's a good idea to read a different newspaper each day, or several everyday, time permitting, including those you tend to disagree with.
I guess in 2013 that would mean following people on twitter who don't share your opinion. It's why I can't understand people using a widget that ignores certain posters on here, it can surely only lead to narrow mindedness?
I'm freezing!
But that still doesn't make it an appropriate thing to say. Any more than some of the more unpleasant comments about Brown were appropriate.
I tend to look more at the process of the papers but that still requires you look at them all. Weeell, sort of. Twitter excels at instant bite sized info and shone during the US election night as everyone struggled to catch up. Not least the BBC who were godawful that night. But you can tell from the tone of certain sources what is happening too. So yes again. How right you are.
If I was comfortable only hearing views I agreed with I wouldn't be here at all now would I? ;^)
It is possible in September 2014, Scotland may well vote to leave the Union, which could cause huge problems for Labour as potentially 40 Labour MPs are removed.
I can't see that being the ideal time to the end the coalition.
Do right-wing Tories want to see this happen? For the Tories to pull out unilaterally would be a bit of a hostage to fortune; They'd own any instability, either political or in the markets. And the LibDems would be able to turn instability on wherever they liked it. But if they can persuade the LibDems to leave of their own accord they could blame instability on the Hung Parliament, and tell voters they needed to give them a majority to fix it.
The obvious way to get the LibDems to leave would be to promote Clegg to the EU Commission. Is that a price the Tory right would be willing to pay in exchange for their minority government?
It may be my suspicious mind, but isn't there something funny in the way Mandela's latest illness is being reported? He has not been seen in public for weeks. His hospital is a government secret: who are also giving encouraging but enigmatic accounts of his progress almost daily.
I wonder...................?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22015026
The end of the coalition was always the thing Clegg and Cammie were least comfortable going into depth about, for obvious reasons. It throws up huge problems for both sides and should give the voters something to think about too. The manner of it's ending could be even more important than it's formation.
Little Ed won't have it all his own way either since a GE campaign is not something he has experienced before as leader. The training wheels will be well and truly off and as Brown found out that is a test that can lead to many unforced errors.
That it is surprising a 94 year old has a few health conditions, particularly a 94 year old who experienced 27 years of hard labour, or that to stop his hospital becoming a shrine/being swamped with well wishers, the government have decided to keep his location a secret
The above details the current LA housing stock. It shows that there are currently just about as many bedsits and one bedroom flats as there are three bedroom properties and there are more two bedroom properties than anything else. Each local authority and RSL have their own mutual exchange register and the national homeswappers scheme has more than 290,000 properties for swap, the vast majority of which are people in overcrowded accommodation wanting to move to larger accommodation..
So can we put to rest the nonsense displayed on here and in the media that there are not properties available for people in under crowded accommodation to move to. All they have to do is swap! (or take advantage of the tenants incentive scheme where they are paid to move.)
What do you wonder?
That it is surprising a 94 year old has a few health conditions, particularly a 94 year old who experienced 27 years of hard labour, or that to stop his hospital becoming a shrine/being swamped with well wishers, the government have decided to keep his location a secret
What you say may be the absolute truth of the matter. However the news of his illness has all the hallmarks of the old soviet agitprop.
Would need some sort of "confidence and supply" only deal.
On competition policy, or farming policy, or almost any other area a Commissioner could have influence over, there would be very little distance between what Clegg would want and what any non-bonkers Tory they might pick would want. He would be an ally, not an opponent.
Obviously I don't expect Tory backbenchers to see things that way, which is why I'm wondering how much they want their year of minority government.
Please don't withdraw the key memes that contribute so vitally to the hustle and bustle of PB.
Next you'll be saying that the Tories' problem with women is "small but consistent" which would remove a key policy plank from some commenting on here.
There;s no reason the final months of a minority Tory government should be a "shambles" as OGH predicts. Most governments don't do much in their final six months anyway - The final stages of the 74-79 administration was an exceptional period thanks to the Unions taking complete and total leave of their sense's. Its very unlikely we'd see a repeat in early 2015.
It will bascially be a "winding down" period but crucially it will give both parties the chance to set out their seperate identities and make changes to their leaderships should they wish.
Careful - tim will be whining that you are obsessed with Mandela for pointing out a careful media management strategy regarding a camera unfriendly pensioner.
That is hardly a surprise considering his stature and they will be hard pressed to keep order in places as it could spark unrest and discord as well as national mourning. While it is not unreasonable to keep Mandelas location from becoming a shrine and magnet for the world media they have to be careful not to give the impression that the SA public are being kept in the dark as that would spark rumour and baseless speculation that could prove even more disruptive.
On the other hand if the news is bad, why do Paul Goodman and others think the tories will ditch the Lib Dems? They need someone to dilute the blame.
The real worry should be what will the tories do if the Lib Dems ditch them first and try and heap all the economic blame onto the tories?
Bev.
As recent months have shown, the LibDems start to recover some of their support when they turn into awkward sods. Ending the coalition before the election is the logical conclusion. It's less obvious that it's in the Tory interest.
Obama the antichrist? Global warming a myth? Lizard people controlling the world?
New conspiracy theory research reveals the bizarre beliefs prevalent in the United States
Public Policy Polling research finds 37 per cent of Americans think global warming is a hoax, while 11 per cent of the population believe the US government allowed September 11 to happen
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/obama-the-antichrist-global-warming-a-myth-lizard-people-controlling-the-world-new-conspiracy-theory-research-reveals-the-bizarre-beliefs-prevalent-in-the-united-states-8558384.html
Where are you malcolmg?
What does appear to be getting forgotten is that the coalition has been at each others throat quite a few times now. The only thing really keeping them together is fear of going to the electorate early since that would be a disaster for both parties right now. The tories killed lords reform and the lib dems killled boundary changes. Slice the blame up how you like but that is how it is perceived for both sides. The mutual respect has long since eroded between Clegg and Cammie and though they put up a good front it is highly unlikely they truly trust each other totally any more. They do however know the consequences of coalition collapse and that will likely keep them going just long enough to dream up some sort of decoupling.
Whether that goes smoothly remains to be seen. I somehow doubt it. Scores will be settled as both parties prepare to fight each other in all those lib dem tory seats. If there is a leadership challenge or election in the lib dems too then that's just going to add fuel to the flames.
You can be certain that the lib dems and the tories will think things would have gone far smoother and better if only they had gotten their own way more. Nor will either side be shy in saying so in the GE campaign.
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/semicontrolled_demolition.png
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22014293
"Clegg is a very capable political actor"
You could have fooled me. Or, come to mention it, the electorate.
It will also be breaking a promise and, although common these days, it will be one of the more notable ones of recent political times and in recent enough memory come GE time. Plus, people like it when everyone gets on. They like to see eg. Cameron and Milliband chatting at the Cenotaph, people like harmony and dislike discord and here the Tories will be creating discord.
Policy/economy-wise, none of us know what the state of the nation six months before the 2015 budget will be so it’s difficult to say whether it will be a good budget either to be associated with, distanced from or want to be jointly culpable for.
If everything is going swimmingly and on the up there will be enough of a perception that the coalition has succeeded and to fix something that isn’t broken will attract opprobrium. If it’s all going t**s-up then making a break might mean the Tories take all the blame themselves.
Not going to happen.
As has been said there will be little to no big changes or policy in the run up nor will the budget likely be very different. There just isn't the fiscal room anyway for big changes. It's going to be damage control and safety first on active policy as election day looms while both parties rearrange themselves to 'surprise' the voters that they were tories and lib dems all along.
The kind of shenanigans the electorate will not easily forgive or forget I think.
That said, this government has made such a hash of absolutely everything. Getting rid of the coalition early accelerates the day Britain confronts its actual problems, rather than appease an hysterical rightwing paranoia.
Remember the Cleggasm?
Women wanted to be with him, and men wanted to be him.
That's why Clegg was elected leader. (albeit by a whisker) He was always the most accomplished of the Blair speaking style leaders. He's still far better at the natural speaking act than either Cammie or little Ed and his tragedy is it doesn't matter one bit.
It didn't matter at the GE because the Clegg debating bounce melted away at the ballot box, and it doesn't matter now because the voters made up their minds long ago on Clegg after the first months of coalition.
He was and still is great at speaking in an informal fluent manner but the voter doesn't care.
What he wasn't great at is tactics and strategy since there he has made some calls which will likely haunt the lib dems for quite some time to come.
TSEPB @TSEofPB
This BBC Class Calculator thing just seems too simplistic.
pic.twitter.com/obRnbgkuz3
http://twitter.yfrog.com/2i0ec7j
Though it's worded slightly differently online:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/4508014/The-Sun-says-Building-for-the-future.html
Can anyone confirm whether the original version pictured above is genuine?
However I've also always expected that the coalition would break up shortly after Christmas 2014, in time for independent campaigning during early 2015.
Hope he doesn't win an appeal. Could turn out very nasty. And expensive.
Apparently one is the first edition. It was changed for the later edition.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=JgY3NDoshHo
A MUGGER told police he had "a daft moment" when he snatched an elderly woman's handbag containing her pension money.
Shaun Bate struck as the 77-year-old walked home from the post office and shops in Hartlepool, Teesside Crown Court heard.
He was yesterday jailed for 16 months by a judge who told him: "I would be failing in my duty if I did not send you away."
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/crime/10321180.Mugger_jailed_for_snatching_elderly_woman_s_handbag/
or
Police in Bradford have vowed they will not tolerate violent robberies after a gang of muggers were locked up for a total of more than 20 years.
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/local/localbrad/10115542.Violent_gang_of_muggers_jailed_for_20_years_for_vicious_street_attack_in_Bradford/
or
Masked mugger jailed over knifepoint robbery attempt in Burnley
http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/burnleypendlerossendale/10313529.Masked_mugger_jailed_over_knifepoint_robbery_attempt_in_Burnley/
Surely it is no different in principle from this famous depiction of broken society - which helped lead to sensible reforms?
http://www.britishmuseum.org/explore/highlights/highlight_image.aspx?image=ps318789.jpg&retpage=21828
Issue 2 - Global Warming will only be sorted by Government action.
"Labour blogger Rob Marchant has been reported to the police for making apparent “death threats” after joking on Twitter. Marchant was chatting on Twitter with some other Labour Tweeters about the possible return of controversial directly elected mayor of Tower Hamlets, Lutfur Rahman, who quit the party and ran as an independent candidate.
The tweets were picked up by Rahman’s team, who have been at war with some Labour activists, and reported to the police.
The Labour Tweeters were worried that Rahman might win again in 2016 or even seek readmission to the Labour party. One tweet joked “makes mental note to keep revolver well cleaned and oiled” while another went ”I will load the revolver and we can all take turns”.
As Marchant explains on his blog the tweets were meant to be jokes about self harm rather than assassination:
"In the spirit of the conversation, I joked that if that readmission were to happen, we would all have to shoot ourselves. This, as you can imagine, is going to turn into one of those “imagine my surprise when” pieces.
Read more: http://wallblog.co.uk/2013/04/03/tweets-get-labour-blogger-reported-for-death-threat/#ixzz2PPTZrBYU
Follow us: @thewalluk on Twitter
Bravo Ben. Given that Labour did 1 for 13 years and made things worse and rEd did nothing much about 2 apart from cry at Copenhagen - what do you think will be different this time ?
Wow.
What about his second term? Eradicate world poverty, sort out the Israel/Palestine issue, bring democracy to North Korea, and eradicate corruption in Africa?
Within 4 years the UK will be a Utopia of sunlit uplands, of children dancing in meadows, butterflies flapping in the endless British summer, some fluffy bunnies hopping to and fro, and above all joyous citizens beaming ear to ear!
http://order-order.com/2013/04/03/after-merkozy-whatever-happened-to-hollibande/
"As is plain for all to see, Hollande’s “different way forward” is dragging his country to its knees. Even Ed knows this, notice how he doesn’t seem to talk about his old pal François so much any more. France should serve as a warning to us all of what would happen under Monsieur Millibande…"
Young robbers using minimal force against their victims need not be given custodial sentences under new guidelines published today by the Sentencing Guidelines Council (SGC)...
...minimal force, which is defined as “causing bruising/pain and discomfort”....
http://www.solicitorsjournal.com/node/2974
The woman in this mugging, for all her trauma, only sustained bruising.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100210285/why-bbc-lefties-hate-being-middle-class/
Hogarth went after everyone and didn't leave out those at the top.
As a satirist he would be more likely to do an amusing grotesque of Dacre right now.
Not that he would be tasked overmuch by portraying him that way. Dacre's journos do it behind his back quite frequently after all. Hogarth does run to far more mastery of his craft than merely drawing a comedy cock it has to be said.
The companion for Gin Lane is of course Beer Street where everyone is portrayed happy, healthy and jolly, binging away on good old fashioned british beer. Not his best work to choose to justify incompetent ignorant editorial bias like Dacre's then, is it?
http://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/cruikshank-the-worship-of-bacchus-n00795
Incidentally, according to the BBC's 7 class system I am not middle class. The calculator is clearly fundamentally flawed.
Got a copy of the Sun from the WHSmiths in Manchester Pic train station.
Yup it is true
http://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/319459975728603136/photo/1
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100210263/outrage-over-the-daily-mails-mick-philpott-headline-but-the-papers-critics-can-be-just-as-hysterical-themselves/
If the left's analysis of welfare is correct they should be spoilt for choice. But they can't seem to find anybody.
From the words "as ever" it was clear that Hodges was bound to be as offensively, stupidly wrong as ever.
Albeit 'hard-working person needs benefits to help them' is a less interesting media story than 'state subisdised massacre of children'
It was socialising with my cleaner and listening to classical music wot did it.
Pork should note that professing a knowledge of William Hogarth doesn't affect your rating. You might as well just pass through the roundabout.
Its astonishing light on the detail of how the cuts are really affecting the lives of people. All names are changed. Yet look at the detail of the Philpott story. Everything in minute detail.
Okaaaay.
Sounds reasonable enough.
Gracious, is that the time? I fear I may not see the conclusion to this PB tory epic.
Sadly I'll just have to imagine the wonderful and curious comments to come.
This obsession of the hand-wringing, liberal left to exhume every example of a loser to portray the government as cruel and uncaring is infuriating and intellectually dishonest (this is also a fair definition of politics in action).
Rant over.
"so you are another one who thinks all benefit claimants are child killers"
Seriously, WTF is that all about?? Just about the strawiest of straw men arguments in history. What an idiotic comment.
Is there an 'ignore' button anywhere on this blog?
"This video, which was posted on YouTube, shows performers taking part in a large-scale flashmob recreation of Rembrandt's famous painting "The Night Watch".
The stunt was organised to coincide with the return of the painting, considered one of the Dutch artist's greatest works, to Amsterdam's Rijksmuseum.
The museum will reopen on April 13 after a decade-long renovation project.
"The Night Watch," which was completed in 1642, is one of the most famous paintings in the world.
It's a stream of Romneyshambles jargon and in jokes about the CoTE channeling Prince Joffrey that can be understood by single person - Porky paper hater himself.
Surely in your attempts at comedy you would have been more fruitful saying that the elite would never take part in something as gauche as a BBC online test. They would hire servants for that kind of menial IT work.