By including a couple of small towns from East Cheshire, the new proposals create one safe seat in the south east of Greater Manchester – Bramhall and Poynton – which takes the most Conservative two wards from Cheadle (Bramhall North and South), some Conservative-leaning wards from Hazel Grove, and the conservative-ish town of Poynton from the Macclesfield constituency. It also includes some more Labour-inclined areas in the north (Offerton), but this should be easily outvoted; I’d expect the main opposition here to be the Lib Dems. The knock-on effect of this is to create two exciting Con/Lab marginals: Marple and Hyde, and Stockport South and Cheadle. I would expect the latter to be slightly more inclined to the Conservatives than the former, but both seats could be winnable by both parties. The Lib Dems still retain a presence here too and could be in with a shout in both seats – especially Stockport South and Cheadle – in the event of a Lib Dem renaissance.
Altrincham and Tatton Park will be just as Conservative as Altrincham and Sale West, possibly more so. The one red blip is the inclusion of the horrible small town of Partington in the north from Stretford and Urmston [whose character is exemplified by the following conversation between a policeman and a serial offender he had recently apprehended, again: Offender: “Am I the only c*nt in Partington?” Policeman: “No sir. There are lots of c*nts in Partington. You just happen to be the one that we’ve picked up”]. But Partington will make little dent into the Conservative score here. There are proposals for thousands of new houses in the north of the constituency at Carrington, which may make a slight change to the character of the seat in the long term, but this is probably one for the next review.
Stretford and Urmston: this seat loses Partington, and gains Sale West from Altrincham and Sale West, and as a result becomes a target for the Conservatives.
Littleborough and Saddleworth: This is a recreation of a seat that was abolished two reviews ago, and combines some of the most conservative parts of the Oldham and Rochdale constituencies. It was conservative in the 80s, and may be a target for the blues again, although Greater Manchester as a whole has become less favourable for the Conservatives since then and it will take a push to win Littleborough and Saddleworth.
Bolton West – this now includes a stretch of inner Bolton, and as a result probably tips back into the red column – still a winnable target for the Conservatives though.
Bolton North East – this now includes a section of inner south Bolton, and becomes that bit harder for the Conservatives, but remains an interesting marginal in a good Conservative year.
Bury – this is the successor seat to Bury North: it includes Radcliffe East ward (home if I remember rightly of Stuart Penketh, once of this parish) and probably remains just in the Conservative column.
All other seats should be fairly safely Labour barring an absolutely apocalyptic night for the reds.
One other thing worthy of note – I was slightly surprised to see the four-and-a-half Manchester constituencies almost unchanged. Manchester has grown hugely in the past fifteen years – but maybe in population rather than registered electors. Still, with the developments currently in the pipeline, we could see the population of Manchester Central double in the next ten years – the character of the seat could well be quite different by 2025.
The initial boundary proposals are a mixture of sensible , dubious and outright ludicrous many of which will not survive the review process . Hampstead and Golders Green manages to not include Golders Green . Holborn and St Pancras manages to not include Holborn Peckham and Lewisham West manages to not include Peckham Camberwell and Vauxhall Bridge manages not to include the Bridge or indeed Vauxhall at all The review in Kent starts off well in East Kent and there makes a lot of sense but as it spreads out into the rest of the High Weald and East Sussex they seem to have given up and thrown any old left over bits together .
No rise in inflation, everything lower than expected.
Producer inflation continuing its rising trend up from 0.3 to 0.8%. Surprisingly modest given the fall in the currency in July but no doubt a lot had been bought forward.
The inflation picture remains as benign as I can recall it in my adult life. The fact we still have some is clearly good too.
Inflation will be mitigated by a squeeze on earnings, I think. Unless you are a lucky pensioner on a triple lock. The consensus is that Brexit will cost 2% of GDP in the 18 months to the end of 2017 but as we were in an economic up cycle that would be growth that didn't happen rather than absolute decline. As we can never be sure about what would have happened, but can only see what did happen - no material change - it won't impact much.
Yes, I think that is the most likely scenario, longer term wage deflation. It's how they dealt with weak currency in Germany as well from 2010 onwards.
Well, we will see. I can see there being considerable resistance to wage deflation and the Living Wage will run counter to it. I also think, in so far as these matters are in government control at all, that May will want to avoid that because it will run entirely counter to her focus on the strugglers.
I can see the Living Wage being a casualty of Brexit. It's an outsourcing of welfare from government to companies, but it is one that is necessarily funded by future increases in business profitability. As the latter is likely to be substantially hit by Brexit, I can see the planned increases in the Living Wage not happening and as low wage earners will already have lost their Working Tax credits they will lose out overall.
I would say that there is absolutely no chance of that. It is possible, indeed probable, that the current rate of increase will slow after the increases already announced but to go back on them now would give even a Labour under Corbyn a sniff.
I know the western media can only keep up with three war-torn countries at a time tops, but the people threatened by wars and tyrannies continue to exist even when we're not looking at them.
I know the western media can only keep up with three war-torn countries at a time tops, but the people threatened by wars and tyrannies continue to exist even when we're not looking at them.
You'll be telling us a falling tree in a forest makes a noise even when there is no one there next.
I know the western media can only keep up with three war-torn countries at a time tops, but the people threatened by wars and tyrannies continue to exist even when we're not looking at them.
70k from Albania...etc etc etc. Also if you think the Germans really have a handle on processing 1.5 million people accurately you are kidding yourself.
I know the western media can only keep up with three war-torn countries at a time tops, but the people threatened by wars and tyrannies continue to exist even when we're not looking at them.
The initial boundary proposals are a mixture of sensible , dubious and outright ludicrous many of which will not survive the review process . Hampstead and Golders Green manages to not include Golders Green . Holborn and St Pancras manages to not include Holborn Peckham and Lewisham West manages to not include Peckham Camberwell and Vauxhall Bridge manages not to include the Bridge or indeed Vauxhall at all The review in Kent starts off well in East Kent and there makes a lot of sense but as it spreads out into the rest of the High Weald and East Sussex they seem to have given up and thrown any old left over bits together .
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border. They are people who are seeking to enter Germany because it provides them with a better life not just than that in their home country but that in the numerous countries they have passed on their way and because Germany has said that it will let a load of people in, regardless of whether or not they fall within the scope of the relevant laws governing asylum.
And having said this, they have - seemingly - ignored the obvious terrorist and other risks associated with letting in a large number of people at short notice without any effective way of vetting them to make sure they are who they say they are and do not have evil intent, have no real effective steps for deporting any they do not want and then have the cheek to expect other countries, who were not consulted about the German decision, to take their "fair" share.
The issues associated with migration, asylum, integration, terrorism etc are deserving of serious and careful thought and far too complicated to be made subject to emotional spasms and "we can do it"-style mission statements. We're not talking about building a house in a weekend. We're talking about changes to societies, to people's lives which will affect all of us for years and years and years.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border.
That's not what the relevant international treaties say. They say they're still refugees, but Germany isn't obliged to take them.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
I've not had chance to go through the proposals in detail but the proposals for W Yorks look quite reasonable, with the possible exception of the south-east end, where the proposals not only cross into S Yorks (which is not of itself a huge issue - Hemsworth and Barnsley share many similarities for example), but also result in some odd shaped proposals, particularly the Normanton, Castleford and Outwood constituency, which looks like the leftovers after the rest's been sorted out. I guess somewhere has to be.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border. They are people who are seeking to enter Germany because it provides them with a better life not just than that in their home country but that in the numerous countries they have passed on their way and because Germany has said that it will let a load of people in, regardless of whether or not they fall within the scope of the relevant laws governing asylum.
And having said this, they have - seemingly - ignored the obvious terrorist and other risks associated with letting in a large number of people at short notice without any effective way of vetting them to make sure they are who they say they are and do not have evil intent, have no real effective steps for deporting any they do not want and then have the cheek to expect other countries, who were not consulted about the German decision, to take their "fair" share.
The issues associated with migration, asylum, integration, terrorism etc are deserving of serious and careful thought and far too complicated to be made subject to emotional spasms and "we can do it"-style mission statements. We're not talking about building a house in a weekend. We're talking about changes to societies, to people's lives which will affect all of us for years and years and years.
On the plus side, that's a lot of people who are now happily building new lives for themselves and their children in Germany instead of rotting in refugee camps or dying in a war zone.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border.
That's not what the relevant international treaties say. They say they're still refugees, but Germany isn't obliged to take them.
But the first EU Member state they enter is obliged to process their application. See Article 13 of the Dublin Accord
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
How many votes do you feel she really will have a majority of 12, inasmuch as the DUP, UUP and Mr Hannan will vote against her?
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
How many votes do you feel she really will have a majority of 12, inasmuch as the DUP, UUP and Mr Hannan will vote against her?
By Hannan do you mean Carswell?
It'll be rare for her majority to disappear to nothing but it wouldn't take all that much, even if the Unionists are on side.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
How many votes do you feel she really will have a majority of 12, inasmuch as the DUP, UUP and Mr Hannan will vote against her?
On the plus side, that's a lot of people who are now happily building new lives for themselves and their children in Germany instead of rotting in refugee camps or dying in a war zone.
As would the rest of Syria and a dozen or so other countries. It's certainly an interesting position to suggest in effect that they should all move to Germany as well, not sure the German's would agree, or indeed that you would were the choice to involve the same people moving en masse into your own town. As a number of (Labour) politicians have demonstrated recently with comments about spaces in their own home, talk is cheap when its at no personal cost.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
How many votes do you feel she really will have a majority of 12, inasmuch as the DUP, UUP and Mr Hannan will vote against her?
By Hannan do you mean Carswell?
It'll be rare for her majority to disappear to nothing but it wouldn't take all that much, even if the Unionists are on side.
Yes Carswell ofc, sorry, still catching up all the Hannan4Witney comments from earlier
No rise in inflation, everything lower than expected.
Producer inflation continuing its rising trend up from 0.3 to 0.8%. Surprisingly modest given the fall in the currency in July but no doubt a lot had been bought forward.
The inflation picture remains as benign as I can recall it in my adult life. The fact we still have some is clearly good too.
Inflation will be mitigated by a squeeze on earnings, I think. Unless you are a lucky pensioner on a triple lock. The consensus is that Brexit will cost 2% of GDP in the 18 months to the end of 2017 but as we were in an economic up cycle that would be growth that didn't happen rather than absolute decline. As we can never be sure about what would have happened, but can only see what did happen - no material change - it won't impact much.
Yes, I think that is the most likely scenario, longer term wage deflation. It's how they dealt with weak currency in Germany as well from 2010 onwards.
Well, we will see. I can see there being considerable resistance to wage deflation and the Living Wage will run counter to it. I also think, in so far as these matters are in government control at all, that May will want to avoid that because it will run entirely counter to her focus on the strugglers.
That's why I think the government will finally take action on boardroom and executive pay. They need to take action now or it will be impossible to sell 1% wage rises to the worker class. I'd say 5-6% pay cuts for management classes and 1% pay rises for worker classes ought to be enough to hold up margins without passing on cost increases to consumers. It will also help close the inequality gap that this country has been storing up.
Globalisation reduces inequality between countries and increases it within them.
For mature Western democracies, this is a problem.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border.
That's not what the relevant international treaties say. They say they're still refugees, but Germany isn't obliged to take them.
Whatever the intent and official wording of Merkel's policy the message that has gone out, and been received, that if you are a refugee and make it to Germany's borders you will be offered sanctuary.
That being the case it is unsurprising that there are millions of people (generally young men) who have taken her up on her offer, and claim to be refugees upon arrival.
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
The trouble is, there will never be a good time to negotiate. Amongst 27 countries with varying electoral cycles, and with the inevitable crises/financial issues/wars that crop up from time to time, there will always be some difficulty. So we'll just have to soldier on with the Brexit process. At least if we invoke Article 50 in early 2017, that fits the UK electoral cycle well - which I think ought to be our primary consideration on the timing.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
How many votes do you feel she really will have a majority of 12, inasmuch as the DUP, UUP and Mr Hannan will vote against her?
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
The same can be said for South Korea, Japan, Australia, NZ, Chile and god knows how many other countries. This confusion of access and membership is I think quite deliberate.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
I would find that just incredible. Did she really go to a G20 without speaking to Cameron about the current state of play there? No wonder she had such an uncomfortable time. Foolish and not a little disrespectful.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
How many votes do you feel she really will have a majority of 12, inasmuch as the DUP, UUP and Mr Hannan will vote against her?
Doesn't 12 also require Sinn Fein to vote?
I think it does. Telling Conservatives how to count seems to be Mr Meeks latest venture after his unsuccessful attempt to tell them who they needed to be their leader
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
There aren't many people who know what it is like to run a country and then not to anymore, it seems a natural thing to chat occasionally.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
The same can be said for South Korea, Japan, Australia, NZ, Chile and god knows how many other countries. This confusion of access and membership is I think quite deliberate.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
You think the European Parliament will vote to approve our departure on those terms?
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
The trouble is, there will never be a good time to negotiate. Amongst 27 countries with varying electoral cycles, and with the inevitable crises/financial issues/wars that crop up from time to time, there will always be some difficulty. So we'll just have to soldier on with the Brexit process. At least if we invoke Article 50 in early 2017, that fits the UK electoral cycle well - which I think ought to be our primary consideration on the timing.
That timescale also fits well with the EU Parliament cycle, so we would exit in early 2019 just before their elections. Worrying too much about other member states' elections would mean it never happens, there will always be one somewhere.
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
The trouble is, there will never be a good time to negotiate. Amongst 27 countries with varying electoral cycles, and with the inevitable crises/financial issues/wars that crop up from time to time, there will always be some difficulty. So we'll just have to soldier on with the Brexit process. At least if we invoke Article 50 in early 2017, that fits the UK electoral cycle well - which I think ought to be our primary consideration on the timing.
It was one of the better reasons for leaving frankly. The EU suffers from institutional paralysis every bit as much as grandiosity.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border.
That's not what the relevant international treaties say. They say they're still refugees, but Germany isn't obliged to take them.
Someone may claim to be a refugee but this does not automatically make them one under international law. You are only a refugee if you fall within the criteria which have been laid out. If you are then there are various obligations on you and on the country to which you have escaped.
The word "refugee" is now being used to mean anyone who has left their home country and wants to go somewhere nicer. Perfectly understandable but a desire for a better life does not make one a refugee.
It is IMO neither possible nor desirable for Europe to provide a home to every single refugee or migrant who wants to come here.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
There are three problems - which to a large extent overlap:
(1) The Cameroons felt they were misled into believing May was the continuity Cameroon candidate, and were shocked to discover she's her own women (even though they themselves were complicit in their own self-delusion - all the signs of May's independence were there) (2) May hasn't been shy of making it abundantly clear what she thought about people or policies that failed to impress her from the very first day she took office (3) She thinks she has a special broad mandate that derives from the Brexit vote, and the divisions it revealed, coincidentally combining with her own preceding beliefs, whereas the Cameroons think she has the GE2015 manifesto plus a technical Brexit to deliver, and no more
I therefore expect her to run into difficulty, but it might not be, at first, from the Conservative Right.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
She does seem to have been keen to let it be known that she not only is her own woman, but disliked much of what was going on under Cameron. All very well the former, and the latter may have been played up to seem tough and a break from the past, but she has seemed a bit blunt at times (like, but much worse, with Corbyn, flaws to others will be presented as strengths by supporters though)
On the plus side, that's a lot of people who are now happily building new lives for themselves and their children in Germany instead of rotting in refugee camps or dying in a war zone.
As would the rest of Syria and a dozen or so other countries. It's certainly an interesting position to suggest in effect that they should all move to Germany as well, not sure the German's would agree, or indeed that you would were the choice to involve the same people moving en masse into your own town. As a number of (Labour) politicians have demonstrated recently with comments about spaces in their own home, talk is cheap when its at no personal cost.
I didn't suggest anything. I just pointed out the other side of the equation.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
The same can be said for South Korea, Japan, Australia, NZ, Chile and god knows how many other countries. This confusion of access and membership is I think quite deliberate.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
You think the European Parliament will vote to approve our departure on those terms?
They don't need to. After two years it is the default outcome.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
I would find that just incredible. Did she really go to a G20 without speaking to Cameron about the current state of play there? No wonder she had such an uncomfortable time. Foolish and not a little disrespectful.
No rise in inflation, everything lower than expected.
Producer inflation continuing its rising trend up from 0.3 to 0.8%. Surprisingly modest given the fall in the currency in July but no doubt a lot had been bought forward.
The inflation picture remains as benign as I can recall it in my adult life. The fact we still have some is clearly good too.
Inflation will be mitigated by a squeeze on earnings, I think. Unless you are a lucky pensioner on a triple lock. The consensus is that Brexit will cost 2% of GDP in the 18 months to the end of 2017 but as we were in an economic up cycle that would be growth that didn't happen rather than absolute decline. As we can never be sure about what would have happened, but can only see what did happen - no material change - it won't impact much.
Yes, I think that is the most likely scenario, longer term wage deflation. It's how they dealt with weak currency in Germany as well from 2010 onwards.
Well, we will see. I can see there being considerable resistance to wage deflation and the Living Wage will run counter to it. I also think, in so far as these matters are in government control at all, that May will want to avoid that because it will run entirely counter to her focus on the strugglers.
That's why I think the government will finally take action on boardroom and executive pay. They need to take action now or it will be impossible to sell 1% wage rises to the worker class. I'd say 5-6% pay cuts for management classes and 1% pay rises for worker classes ought to be enough to hold up margins without passing on cost increases to consumers. It will also help close the inequality gap that this country has been storing up.
Globalisation reduces inequality between countries and increases it within them.
For mature Western democracies, this is a problem.
True, but anti-Globalisation means less money and therefore more poverty. Money matters because it funds poverty alleviation. It is what I regret most about Brexit. It means we lose the opportunity that we largely failed to take to spread the wealth around.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
I would find that just incredible. Did she really go to a G20 without speaking to Cameron about the current state of play there? No wonder she had such an uncomfortable time. Foolish and not a little disrespectful.
That is very surprising, especially given that the handover happened much quicker than enticipated - it would have been only last week, after the summit, if Leadsom had not withdrawn from the race.
One assumes that the outgoing PM was extensively debriefed by May's office in the days after he resigned, and they then briefed the new PM - but it does seem rather odd that they hadn't spoken over the summer.
Sadiq Khan launches plan to help London’s black cabs tackle Uber
In an effort to bolster the black cab industry, the mayor of London plans to give them access to 20 bus lanes and to quadruple the number of officials enforcing private hire car regulations. TfL will spend £65m on helping black cabs switch from diesel cars to more eco-friendly models.
Meanwhile, private hire drivers will have to pass a stricter driving test, an English-language test and always have commercial insurance that covers passengers in an accident, even if the driver works part-time.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
Yes, without Mutti, and with god knows who in France things could be jolly tricky......
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
I would find that just incredible. Did she really go to a G20 without speaking to Cameron about the current state of play there? No wonder she had such an uncomfortable time. Foolish and not a little disrespectful.
That is very surprising, especially given that the handover happened much quicker than enticipated - it would have been only last week, after the summit, if Leadsom had not withdrawn from the race.
One assumes that the outgoing PM was extensively debriefed by May's office in the days after he resigned, and they then briefed the new PM - but it does seem rather odd that they hadn't spoken over the summer.
It would be interesting to know if that was May not wanting to talk to Cameron, or Cameron being too busy playing Fruit Ninja to be bother to talk to May.
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
The trouble is, there will never be a good time to negotiate. Amongst 27 countries with varying electoral cycles, and with the inevitable crises/financial issues/wars that crop up from time to time, there will always be some difficulty. So we'll just have to soldier on with the Brexit process. At least if we invoke Article 50 in early 2017, that fits the UK electoral cycle well - which I think ought to be our primary consideration on the timing.
It was one of the better reasons for leaving frankly. The EU suffers from institutional paralysis every bit as much as grandiosity.
We need to get it done.
If you subscribe to my view, which was that the EU's response to Bloomberg was the last chance it had to demonstrate it could meaninfully reform to respond to the concerns of its members, and blew it through its arrogance, intransigence and internal paralysis, then our departure was a question of when, not if.
Had the vote been 51-49% to Remain we would have left in the 2020s when the case to Leave, both politically and economically, would have been even more clear cut and the warnings of the Leave campaign vindicated.
No rise in inflation, everything lower than expected.
Producer inflation continuing its rising trend up from 0.3 to 0.8%. Surprisingly modest given the fall in the currency in July but no doubt a lot had been bought forward.
The inflation picture remains as benign as I can recall it in my adult life. The fact we still have some is clearly good too.
Inflation will be mitigated by a squeeze on earnings, I think. Unless you are a lucky pensioner on a triple lock. The consensus is that Brexit will cost 2% of GDP in the 18 months to the end of 2017 but as we were in an economic up cycle that would be growth that didn't happen rather than absolute decline. As we can never be sure about what would have happened, but can only see what did happen - no material change - it won't impact much.
Yes, I think that is the most likely scenario, longer term wage deflation. It's how they dealt with weak currency in Germany as well from 2010 onwards.
Well, we will see. I can see there being considerable resistance to wage deflation and the Living Wage will run counter to it. I also think, in so far as these matters are in government control at all, that May will want to avoid that because it will run entirely counter to her focus on the strugglers.
That's why I think the government will finally take action on boardroom and executive pay. They need to take action now or it will be impossible to sell 1% wage rises to the worker class. I'd say 5-6% pay cuts for management classes and 1% pay rises for worker classes ought to be enough to hold up margins without passing on cost increases to consumers. It will also help close the inequality gap that this country has been storing up.
"Less than half of American voters believe Hillary Clinton’s explanation of the illness that led to her apparently fainting on Sunday, a poll by YouGov for The Times shows — a trust deficit that highlights the vulnerability of her presidential campaign."
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
The same can be said for South Korea, Japan, Australia, NZ, Chile and god knows how many other countries. This confusion of access and membership is I think quite deliberate.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
You think the European Parliament will vote to approve our departure on those terms?
If the European Parliament don't like it what are they going to do? Invade?
"Less than half of American voters believe Hillary Clinton’s explanation of the illness that led to her apparently fainting on Sunday, a poll by YouGov for The Times shows — a trust deficit that highlights the vulnerability of her presidential campaign."
Seriously bad news for her POTUS prospects.
Remember she didn't faint...she said so herself...I have no idea why she has such a large trust deficit.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
The same can be said for South Korea, Japan, Australia, NZ, Chile and god knows how many other countries. This confusion of access and membership is I think quite deliberate.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
You think the European Parliament will vote to approve our departure on those terms?
Verhofstadt is in any case wrong: the 4 freedoms have not always been inseparable. Capital was not for instance free to move pre the removal of exchange controls in Britain in 1979 even though we had been subject to the Treaty of Rome since 1973.
He makes the same mistake as many others do - of thinking that people are the same as inanimate unsentient objects such as goods, services and capital. People are different and the effects of unlimited free movement with no controls - even though the Treaty does allow for some controls - are very different. It is only a foolishly stubborn person who does not appreciate that the principle of free movement needs to take account of these fundamental differences and the consequences.
@Philip_Thompson The Conservative majority is 12. One can do all kinds of calculations of practical majorities based on Sinn Fein not voting, the DUP being supportive and Frank Field deciding to have a complete aberration one morning, but the Conservative majority is 12.
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
Anecdote alert: I was having dinner yesterday with an American colleague. She made the point that the email issue would have killed any other lawyer working in an industry like ours. Anyone who treated emails and confidentiality in the way Hilary has would be very lucky indeed not to face disciplinary action/dismissal etc. She is simply not trusted. (Another US lawyer colleague hates Hilary for precisely this reason.)
I'm trying to imagine explaining to the Senior Partner why I had a separate server from that of the firm, with all my client communications on it. And that he wasn't able to access...
One thing we have not recommended, however, is any role for the Commission in regulating the ‘truth’ or the content of what campaigners say. At every electoral event, there is fierce questioning about the accuracy of campaign arguments, and this poll was no different. It is right that campaigners and the media should scrutinise each other’s contentions and that information is widely available for voters to do the same. But we do not believe that a role as a “truth Commission” would be appropriate for us given the breadth of our other functions.
Anecdote alert: I was having dinner yesterday with an American colleague. She made the point that the email issue would have killed any other lawyer working in an industry like ours. Anyone who treated emails and confidentiality in the way Hilary has would be very lucky indeed not to face disciplinary action/dismissal etc. She is simply not trusted. (Another US lawyer colleague hates Hilary for precisely this reason.)
I'm trying to imagine explaining to the Senior Partner why I had a separate server from that of the firm, with all my client communications on it. And that he wasn't able to access...
Your blackberry doesn't work with the company ones?
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
I can't access the fantasy football page, can you tell me where I am in the league standings and where you are?
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
I can't access the fantasy football page, can you tell me where I am in the league standings and where you are?
I'm in the peloton coasting and waiting to sweep past the foolish early breakaway rider later in the race as he tires dramatically when it matters.
Capoue as captain???? Truly you are in good early season form.
One thing we have not recommended, however, is any role for the Commission in regulating the ‘truth’ or the content of what campaigners say. At every electoral event, there is fierce questioning about the accuracy of campaign arguments, and this poll was no different. It is right that campaigners and the media should scrutinise each other’s contentions and that information is widely available for voters to do the same. But we do not believe that a role as a “truth Commission” would be appropriate for us given the breadth of our other functions.
Very good call. Journists and opponents are there to do 'fact checking', what role would an official fact checker have, except to be bombarded with partisan complaints throughout the campaign period?
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
I can't access the fantasy football page, can you tell me where I am in the league standings and where you are?
I'm in the peloton coasting and waiting to sweep past the foolish early breakaway rider later in the race as he tires dramatically when it matters.
Capoue as captain???? Truly you are in good early season form.
That was an accident. I replaced Aguero with Capoue and it automatically made him captain as Sergio is my usual skipper.
@GuyVerhofstadt #Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
If he wants for former, he might have to consider his position on the later
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
The same can be said for South Korea, Japan, Australia, NZ, Chile and god knows how many other countries. This confusion of access and membership is I think quite deliberate.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
You think the European Parliament will vote to approve our departure on those terms?
Verhofstadt is in any case wrong: the 4 freedoms have not always been inseparable. Capital was not for instance free to move pre the removal of exchange controls in Britain in 1979 even though we had been subject to the Treaty of Rome since 1973.
He makes the same mistake as many others do - of thinking that people are the same as inanimate unsentient objects such as goods, services and capital. People are different and the effects of unlimited free movement with no controls - even though the Treaty does allow for some controls - are very different. It is only a foolishly stubborn person who does not appreciate that the principle of free movement needs to take account of these fundamental differences and the consequences.
But it makes perfect sense to a federalist who wishes to build a single superstate.
Anecdote alert: I was having dinner yesterday with an American colleague. She made the point that the email issue would have killed any other lawyer working in an industry like ours. Anyone who treated emails and confidentiality in the way Hilary has would be very lucky indeed not to face disciplinary action/dismissal etc. She is simply not trusted. (Another US lawyer colleague hates Hilary for precisely this reason.)
I'm trying to imagine explaining to the Senior Partner why I had a separate server from that of the firm, with all my client communications on it. And that he wasn't able to access...
Your blackberry doesn't work with the company ones?
Given the millions that were spent on getting Obama's ''blackberry'' working for secret stuff, it is not surprising that SoS Hillary wasn't also offered one by the Spooks?
One thing we have not recommended, however, is any role for the Commission in regulating the ‘truth’ or the content of what campaigners say. At every electoral event, there is fierce questioning about the accuracy of campaign arguments, and this poll was no different. It is right that campaigners and the media should scrutinise each other’s contentions and that information is widely available for voters to do the same. But we do not believe that a role as a “truth Commission” would be appropriate for us given the breadth of our other functions.
Found the bit on those 'skewed' postal voting instructions in Swale & Bristol, but nothing on prevention.
Bristol City Council went down the path of blaming junior staff for the 'mistake'. .
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
I can't access the fantasy football page, can you tell me where I am in the league standings and where you are?
I'm in the peloton coasting and waiting to sweep past the foolish early breakaway rider later in the race as he tires dramatically when it matters.
Capoue as captain???? Truly you are in good early season form.
That was an accident. I replaced Aguero with Capoue and it automatically made him captain as Sergio is my usual skipper.
BREAKING: Three Syrian men arrested in Germany on suspicion of being sent by so-called Islamic State to carry out attacks
Well, ISIS did warn us that was what they were doing...
Will Mrs Merkel now admit that letting anyone who wanted to come into Germany was a bad idea?
I know I'm wasting my time pointing this out but letting in anyone who wants to come into Germany is not in fact the policy.
Not policy, just the fact of the matter. They have let in huge numbers of people that aren't Syrian / from countries that aren't war torn.
EU (including German) asylum seekers are overwhelmingly from war-torn countries. The top three by some margin are Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
And to get to Germany they will have passed through numerous safe countries. So - as the relevant international treaties and Conventions make clear - they are not refugees when they reach the German border.
That's not what the relevant international treaties say. They say they're still refugees, but Germany isn't obliged to take them.
Someone may claim to be a refugee but this does not automatically make them one under international law. You are only a refugee if you fall within the criteria which have been laid out. If you are then there are various obligations on you and on the country to which you have escaped.
The word "refugee" is now being used to mean anyone who has left their home country and wants to go somewhere nicer. Perfectly understandable but a desire for a better life does not make one a refugee.
It is IMO neither possible nor desirable for Europe to provide a home to every single refugee or migrant who wants to come here.
What you were claiming upthread was that people who had already got to a safe country weren't refugees. This is false. The fact that it is false doesn't imply the alternative definition you just suggested.
I don't know who you think is advocating providing a home for every single refugee or migrant who wants to come (wherever). Where I came in was that someone was claiming that was Merkel's policy, which it isn't.
However, what Merkel is doing is taking in more refugees than she would be technically obliged to under the treaties. Specifically, she could tell people who had got to Turkey or Hungary to go back to those countries. But if the numbet of refugees Germany is taking in is supposed to be unsustainable, that goes 10x or 100x for the poorer countries she's supposed to be sending them back to.
Anecdote alert: I was having dinner yesterday with an American colleague. She made the point that the email issue would have killed any other lawyer working in an industry like ours. Anyone who treated emails and confidentiality in the way Hilary has would be very lucky indeed not to face disciplinary action/dismissal etc. She is simply not trusted. (Another US lawyer colleague hates Hilary for precisely this reason.)
I'm trying to imagine explaining to the Senior Partner why I had a separate server from that of the firm, with all my client communications on it. And that he wasn't able to access...
But that others could because it was not adequately secure.
Theresa May should, when she reflects on it, be feeling rueful that she has lost David Cameron from Parliament. Handled carefully, he might well have proved a vital source of support in tricky votes - useful when you've got a majority of 12.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
I would find that just incredible. Did she really go to a G20 without speaking to Cameron about the current state of play there? No wonder she had such an uncomfortable time. Foolish and not a little disrespectful.
TM was always going to be cold shouldered by some at the G20. She had just pissed on their parade, well actually that's unfair. The majority of the voters in the UK who bothered to turn out had just pissed on their parade and when the music stopped TM was in the chair. Cameron may have been able to offer some background information into the personalities involved but I doubt that would have made any significant difference and FCO should have known everything Cameron knew anyway.
Looking at some of the other comments about Cameron being helpful in keeping MPs on side. I can only say they must come from people who have never actually led. A leader is a leader and cannot tolerate cabals within their team led by someone else with whom they must negotiate. I think it possible that Cameron realised that he was in danger of being set up as a leader of such a cabal and therefore, honorably, removed himself from the scene.
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
Agree.
David Cameron had the chance to demonstrate that the after-life of a prime minister does not have to be rancorous and can be politically relevant.
Unfortunately, confronted with a difficult slog, once again, David Cameron seems to have taken the easy way out.....
Not only will David Cameron’s political career be defined by his failure in the EU referendum, the nature of his exit is an antithesis to the notion of public service which is meant to be the raison d’être of politics.
@Philip_Thompson The Conservative majority is 12. One can do all kinds of calculations of practical majorities based on Sinn Fein not voting, the DUP being supportive and Frank Field deciding to have a complete aberration one morning, but the Conservative majority is 12.
No it is not as Sinn Fein are not eligible to vote. Even if Sinn Fein oppose a policy they can no more vote against than you or I. So it's 16.
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
I can imagine the topic of conversation being what an ungrateful bunch the public are in not realising their genius.
Surely it's more likely to be tips on how an ex-Prime Minister can earn the odd mill.
Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn has called for Hungary to be suspended or even expelled from the European Union because of its "massive violation" of EU fundamental values.
What you were claiming upthread was that people who had already got to a safe country weren't refugees. This is false. The fact that it is false doesn't imply the alternative definition you just suggested.
I don't know who you think is advocating providing a home for every single refugee or migrant who wants to come (wherever). Where I came in was that someone was claiming that was Merkel's policy, which it isn't.
However, what Merkel is doing is taking in more refugees than she would be technically obliged to under the treaties. Specifically, she could tell people who had got to Turkey or Hungary to go back to those countries. But if the numbet of refugees Germany is taking in is supposed to be unsustainable, that goes 10x or 100x for the poorer countries she's supposed to be sending them back to.
Japan could always volunteer to take a few hundred thousand.
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
I can't access the fantasy football page, can you tell me where I am in the league standings and where you are?
I'm in the peloton coasting and waiting to sweep past the foolish early breakaway rider later in the race as he tires dramatically when it matters.
Capoue as captain???? Truly you are in good early season form.
That was an accident. I replaced Aguero with Capoue and it automatically made him captain as Sergio is my usual skipper.
Cameron was a lucky leader too - once...
He'll be PM once again. If Brexit turns into a clusterfuck, we're going to need a government of national unity. Dave is the most egregiously qualified person for the role.
"I’ll put up full notional results later on today, but looking at England and Wales as a whole, it looks as if the Conservatives would lose 10 seats, Labour would lose 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats would lose 4 and the Greens would lose one (by my calculations the new Brighton North would be a close three-way marginal, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Labour). That means at the last general election the Conservatives would have won a majority of 40, rather than the majority of 12 they actually got."
@Philip_Thompson will no doubt take up with him his use of "majority of 12".
joncraigSKY @joncraig A well informed source in Brighton tells me David Cameron & wife Samantha have been dining with Tony & Cherie Blair recently. Interesting!
Not for the first time I find myself agreeing with a Labour Uncut piece. The one on Cameron is sort of how I feel.
I can't access the fantasy football page, can you tell me where I am in the league standings and where you are?
I'm in the peloton coasting and waiting to sweep past the foolish early breakaway rider later in the race as he tires dramatically when it matters.
Capoue as captain???? Truly you are in good early season form.
That was an accident. I replaced Aguero with Capoue and it automatically made him captain as Sergio is my usual skipper.
Cameron was a lucky leader too - once...
He'll be PM once again. If Brexit turns into a clusterfuck, we're going to need a government of national unity. Dave is the most egregiously qualified person for the role.
One thing we have not recommended, however, is any role for the Commission in regulating the ‘truth’ or the content of what campaigners say. At every electoral event, there is fierce questioning about the accuracy of campaign arguments, and this poll was no different. It is right that campaigners and the media should scrutinise each other’s contentions and that information is widely available for voters to do the same. But we do not believe that a role as a “truth Commission” would be appropriate for us given the breadth of our other functions.
Found the bit on those 'skewed' postal voting instructions in Swale & Bristol, but nothing on prevention.
Bristol City Council went down the path of blaming junior staff for the 'mistake'. .
So much for 'the poor thickos didn't know what they were voting on:
People also said that they had enough information to participate in the referendum, with 85% saying that it was very or fairly easy to access information about how to cast their vote, with a similar proportion (82%) saying the same in relation to what the referendum was for. The majority felt that they had enough information to make an informed decision on how to vote in it (62% agreed, compared with 28% who disagreed).
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/sep/13/the-lefts-jewish-problem-corbyn-israel-and-antisemitism-dave-rich-review
By including a couple of small towns from East Cheshire, the new proposals create one safe seat in the south east of Greater Manchester – Bramhall and Poynton – which takes the most Conservative two wards from Cheadle (Bramhall North and South), some Conservative-leaning wards from Hazel Grove, and the conservative-ish town of Poynton from the Macclesfield constituency. It also includes some more Labour-inclined areas in the north (Offerton), but this should be easily outvoted; I’d expect the main opposition here to be the Lib Dems. The knock-on effect of this is to create two exciting Con/Lab marginals: Marple and Hyde, and Stockport South and Cheadle. I would expect the latter to be slightly more inclined to the Conservatives than the former, but both seats could be winnable by both parties. The Lib Dems still retain a presence here too and could be in with a shout in both seats – especially Stockport South and Cheadle – in the event of a Lib Dem renaissance.
Altrincham and Tatton Park will be just as Conservative as Altrincham and Sale West, possibly more so. The one red blip is the inclusion of the horrible small town of Partington in the north from Stretford and Urmston [whose character is exemplified by the following conversation between a policeman and a serial offender he had recently apprehended, again: Offender: “Am I the only c*nt in Partington?” Policeman: “No sir. There are lots of c*nts in Partington. You just happen to be the one that we’ve picked up”]. But Partington will make little dent into the Conservative score here. There are proposals for thousands of new houses in the north of the constituency at Carrington, which may make a slight change to the character of the seat in the long term, but this is probably one for the next review.
Stretford and Urmston: this seat loses Partington, and gains Sale West from Altrincham and Sale West, and as a result becomes a target for the Conservatives.
Littleborough and Saddleworth: This is a recreation of a seat that was abolished two reviews ago, and combines some of the most conservative parts of the Oldham and Rochdale constituencies. It was conservative in the 80s, and may be a target for the blues again, although Greater Manchester as a whole has become less favourable for the Conservatives since then and it will take a push to win Littleborough and Saddleworth.
Bolton West – this now includes a stretch of inner Bolton, and as a result probably tips back into the red column – still a winnable target for the Conservatives though.
Bolton North East – this now includes a section of inner south Bolton, and becomes that bit harder for the Conservatives, but remains an interesting marginal in a good Conservative year.
Bury – this is the successor seat to Bury North: it includes Radcliffe East ward (home if I remember rightly of Stuart Penketh, once of this parish) and probably remains just in the Conservative column.
All other seats should be fairly safely Labour barring an absolutely apocalyptic night for the reds.
One other thing worthy of note – I was slightly surprised to see the four-and-a-half Manchester constituencies almost unchanged. Manchester has grown hugely in the past fifteen years – but maybe in population rather than registered electors. Still, with the developments currently in the pipeline, we could see the population of Manchester Central double in the next ten years – the character of the seat could well be quite different by 2025.
Hampstead and Golders Green manages to not include Golders Green .
Holborn and St Pancras manages to not include Holborn
Peckham and Lewisham West manages to not include Peckham
Camberwell and Vauxhall Bridge manages not to include the Bridge or indeed Vauxhall at all
The review in Kent starts off well in East Kent and there makes a lot of sense but as it spreads out into the rest of the High Weald and East Sussex they seem to have given up and thrown any old left over bits together .
#Brexit should be delivered before 2019, when EU politics enters into new cycle & the @Europarl_EN starts new mandate.
Guy Verhofstadt @GuyVerhofstadt
If UK wants access to #SingleMarket, it must also accept the free movement of citizens. Our four freedoms are inseparable.
And having said this, they have - seemingly - ignored the obvious terrorist and other risks associated with letting in a large number of people at short notice without any effective way of vetting them to make sure they are who they say they are and do not have evil intent, have no real effective steps for deporting any they do not want and then have the cheek to expect other countries, who were not consulted about the German decision, to take their "fair" share.
The issues associated with migration, asylum, integration, terrorism etc are deserving of serious and careful thought and far too complicated to be made subject to emotional spasms and "we can do it"-style mission statements. We're not talking about building a house in a weekend. We're talking about changes to societies, to people's lives which will affect all of us for years and years and years.
Doesn't the US have access to the single market ? Don't recall it being part of freedom of movement.
But he's gone now and the remaining metropolitan Tories in Parliament are likely to be rather less biddable. If it is true that she hadn't spoken to him since taking over his job, that's distinctly careless.
She has apparently put back her decision as to whether to run again. I fear this is going to be yet another complication in negotiating Brexit. The only person on the other side of the table who (usually) had the power to say yes or no may well go awol. A new German leader will take some time to develop such influence.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32013R0604&from=EN
It'll be rare for her majority to disappear to nothing but it wouldn't take all that much, even if the Unionists are on side.
Quite extraordinary via @elliotttimes https://t.co/mVrQB6iUd8 https://t.co/HplPhdVZ9f
For mature Western democracies, this is a problem.
That being the case it is unsurprising that there are millions of people (generally young men) who have taken her up on her offer, and claim to be refugees upon arrival.
I become more and more convinced that the UK's best bet is just tell them to get stuffed and drop back to WTO rules, remove ourselves from all EU institutions and then start negotiating for real once we are out.
Lucky boy
We need to get it done.
The word "refugee" is now being used to mean anyone who has left their home country and wants to go somewhere nicer. Perfectly understandable but a desire for a better life does not make one a refugee.
It is IMO neither possible nor desirable for Europe to provide a home to every single refugee or migrant who wants to come here.
(1) The Cameroons felt they were misled into believing May was the continuity Cameroon candidate, and were shocked to discover she's her own women (even though they themselves were complicit in their own self-delusion - all the signs of May's independence were there)
(2) May hasn't been shy of making it abundantly clear what she thought about people or policies that failed to impress her from the very first day she took office
(3) She thinks she has a special broad mandate that derives from the Brexit vote, and the divisions it revealed, coincidentally combining with her own preceding beliefs, whereas the Cameroons think she has the GE2015 manifesto plus a technical Brexit to deliver, and no more
I therefore expect her to run into difficulty, but it might not be, at first, from the Conservative Right.
I advised the Conservatives to select Theresa May. See here:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/04/the-con-leadership-line-up-is-worryingly-thin/
http://www.bce2018.org.uk/
One assumes that the outgoing PM was extensively debriefed by May's office in the days after he resigned, and they then briefed the new PM - but it does seem rather odd that they hadn't spoken over the summer.
In an effort to bolster the black cab industry, the mayor of London plans to give them access to 20 bus lanes and to quadruple the number of officials enforcing private hire car regulations. TfL will spend £65m on helping black cabs switch from diesel cars to more eco-friendly models.
Meanwhile, private hire drivers will have to pass a stricter driving test, an English-language test and always have commercial insurance that covers passengers in an accident, even if the driver works part-time.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3cfe4e16-7963-11e6-97ae-647294649b28.html?siteedition=uk
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/215279/2016-EU-referendum-report.pdf
only 133 pages.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/leaked-emails-raise-more-questions-for-corbyn-team-over-eu-c
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/13/theresa-may-grammar-schools-brexit-chaos
"Working Government Majority: 16"
Anyone who counts Sinn Fein in their calculations is facetious.
Had the vote been 51-49% to Remain we would have left in the 2020s when the case to Leave, both politically and economically, would have been even more clear cut and the warnings of the Leave campaign vindicated.
"Less than half of American voters believe Hillary Clinton’s explanation of the illness that led to her apparently fainting on Sunday, a poll by YouGov for The Times shows — a trust deficit that highlights the vulnerability of her presidential campaign."
Seriously bad news for her POTUS prospects.
http://election-data.co.uk/boundary-commission-proposals
He makes the same mistake as many others do - of thinking that people are the same as inanimate unsentient objects such as goods, services and capital. People are different and the effects of unlimited free movement with no controls - even though the Treaty does allow for some controls - are very different. It is only a foolishly stubborn person who does not appreciate that the principle of free movement needs to take account of these fundamental differences and the consequences.
One thing we have not recommended, however, is any role for the Commission in regulating the ‘truth’ or the content of what campaigners say. At every electoral event, there is fierce questioning about the accuracy of campaign arguments, and this poll was no different. It is right that campaigners and the media should scrutinise each other’s contentions and that information is widely available for voters to do the same. But we do not believe that a role as a “truth Commission” would be appropriate for us given the breadth of our other functions.
Capoue as captain???? Truly you are in good early season form.
The horror. THE HORROR.
I'm moving to North Yorkshire.
Bristol City Council went down the path of blaming junior staff for the 'mistake'. .
I don't know who you think is advocating providing a home for every single refugee or migrant who wants to come (wherever). Where I came in was that someone was claiming that was Merkel's policy, which it isn't.
However, what Merkel is doing is taking in more refugees than she would be technically obliged to under the treaties. Specifically, she could tell people who had got to Turkey or Hungary to go back to those countries. But if the numbet of refugees Germany is taking in is supposed to be unsustainable, that goes 10x or 100x for the poorer countries she's supposed to be sending them back to.
I fear it would be a short meeting.
Looking at some of the other comments about Cameron being helpful in keeping MPs on side. I can only say they must come from people who have never actually led. A leader is a leader and cannot tolerate cabals within their team led by someone else with whom they must negotiate. I think it possible that Cameron realised that he was in danger of being set up as a leader of such a cabal and therefore, honorably, removed himself from the scene.
David Cameron had the chance to demonstrate that the after-life of a prime minister does not have to be rancorous and can be politically relevant.
Unfortunately, confronted with a difficult slog, once again, David Cameron seems to have taken the easy way out.....
Not only will David Cameron’s political career be defined by his failure in the EU referendum, the nature of his exit is an antithesis to the notion of public service which is meant to be the raison d’être of politics.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/09/13/david-cameron-flunks-his-final-test/
I'm spending most of November in Paris thanks to everyone who voted Leave and especially those who want hard Brexit.
You bunch of Mark Recklesses
I might do a thread on it.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9759
His conclusion:
"I’ll put up full notional results later on today, but looking at England and Wales as a whole, it looks as if the Conservatives would lose 10 seats, Labour would lose 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats would lose 4 and the Greens would lose one (by my calculations the new Brighton North would be a close three-way marginal, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Labour). That means at the last general election the Conservatives would have won a majority of 40, rather than the majority of 12 they actually got."
@Philip_Thompson will no doubt take up with him his use of "majority of 12".
People also said that they had enough information to participate in the referendum, with 85% saying that it was very or fairly easy to access information about how to cast their vote, with a similar proportion (82%) saying the same in relation to what the referendum was for. The majority felt that they had enough information to make an informed decision on how to vote in it (62% agreed, compared with 28% who disagreed).