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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vox Populi, Vox Dei, the polling that explains why Mrs May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vox Populi, Vox Dei, the polling that explains why Mrs May is backing grammar schools
Last month YouGov conducted some polling on grammar schools, some of polling explains why Mrs May has so publicly endorsed the expansion of grammar schools today, it would be appear people view them as good for social mobility. and they would like their children to go to grammar schools.
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Con 257, Lab 209, LD 105, Crossbench 179
When they make a real effort Con has out turnouted Lab by a few percentage points - eg Con 80%, Lab 72% was typical of some votes in the last year which Con regarded as important and of course Con won the two key votes on electoral registration and EU referendum votes at 16 - which were before the latest influx of Peers which give Con a net gain of 12 (Con 13, Lab 1).
Conclusion: Whilst Lab + LD may well be able to block grammar schools it's by no means a certainty - if Con push very hard and can get more Crossbench with them than against then it could well get very close.
And that's before May might appoint a few more Con Peers.
And she's going to struggle with it:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1080603941995608&id=128927410496604&_ft_=top_level_post_id.1080603941995608:tl_objid.1080603941995608&__tn__=,;
Everyone was saying there's no way the grammar school changes will get through the Lords, would anyone explain why this is the case? Just Labour and Lib Dems blocking it?
Tripped over this - could be interesting popcorn
https://www.propublica.org/article/monitoring-the-vote-with-electionland?utm_campaign=sprout&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1473425832
If the Lords block it (assuming it passes the Commons) then she gets to benefit from the populism now *and* put it in the manifesto.
A couple of new Tory Peers a week for a few months should help redress the balance, I'm sure there's a few here that would volunteer to wear Ermine for the cause.
Dear oh dear oh dear.....since we're misleadingly adding numbers....
You could have written.
The polling finds more than twice as many people are in favour of creating more grammar schools or just keeping the current ones (55%) than scrapping existing grammar schools (23%)
But you didn't.
Instead you pretended 38 and 40 are statistically different......
Bottom of the class!
That expensive education gone to waste.....
Surely a conviction for dishonesty would enhance one's chances of being employed in financial services?
Oh, and what happened to Osborne's her 'compulsory' voluntary Academies for all?
So the elite don't like the plebs getting better education.
Right, got it.
The evidence is not overwhelmingly against grammar schools. Even as a proponent of them I'd admit that it's mixed, but there are concrete steps which could be taken to improve the system*. This is unlike, say, the EU, where people blithely said we could 'Remain and reform' as if we hadn't been trying and failing at that for 43 years.
*additional selection at 13/14, tutor-proofing tests, selecting on performance at primary school as well as/instead of the 11+
As with prime London property, that Russian and Far Eastern money is swamping the indigenous punter, and putting public school fees out of reach of the average uk professional.
“Between 2010 and 2015 their fees rose four times faster than average earnings growth, while the percentage of their pupils who come from overseas has gone up by 33% since 2008. But I know that their commitment to giving something back to the wider community remains.” says Mrs May.
This has hit a lot of traditional tory support.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/uk-politics-14860411
Neil Carmichael, the Tory Chairman of the Select Committee, is a pretty reasonable chap and if he is joined in his reservations by others (Nicky Morgan has already joined the fray...will Gove follow...plus some of the ultra Cameroons-in-exile, Boles and La Soubry immediately spring to mind), then it may take more than the DUP to get legislation even through the Commons.
A couple of issues if she really is serious about a grammar schools revolution.
Firstly, parents collectively don't like them. If you promote the 20% by definition you demote the 80%. The days when people accepted second class provision as the natural order are long gone.
Secondly, studies including PISA show that successful education systems have standardised schools with homogeneous intakes. Introducing greater inequality will show up in poorer educational attainment figures. Poor rankings come back to bite governments as the SNP government in Scotland is discovering.
Thirdly it will be difficult to get through parliament as there is no consensus there for more grammar schools.
May talks mentions the various hoops schools going selective will have to go through. It may just be putting a toe into the water for now with a more modest and rigorous programme.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/eastern-empresses.html
If just 30% support it then that's not quite enough.
We need to ensure that the very brightest progress in their education at a speed which is concomitant with their learning abilities and inclinations. Glad to see that specialist schools in the UK (magnet schools in the US) have expanded considerably in the last 15 years. Are they any part of this debate?
And I don't buy the idea that enough Tory MPs will be sufficiently enraged over the new demands made on independent schools to threaten the reforms. Their Lordships, on the other hand, can block the proposals if they're really determined to do so, but they're already skating on thin ice over the noises they've been making about trying to frustrate or reverse the EU referendum result - and May can always steamroller her project through with the Parliament Act after a year.
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/09/britons-time-to-celebreate-today-is-our-brexit-ministers-big-bang-trade-deal-day/
Sense of humour is the best British characteristic, followed by good manners & tolerance: https://t.co/NDZfRiZSVf https://t.co/GobFwoN8s9
"Additionally Mrs May saying ‘private schools must do more to keep tax breaks’ might go down very badly with the 48% of Tory MPs who were privately educated. I fear Mrs May is fighting the wrong battles and forgetting the Tories enjoy a majority of only 12 in the House of Commons."
The problem with the likes of Morgan is they've met too many people like them.
There are benefits as well as costs in engaging with the outside world. I can understand that there are those who see social segregation as a benefit of attending a private school, but again, providing a refuge from the oiks ought not to be viewed as a charitable aim.
"intellectual self confidence"
You are Ed Miliband and I claim my €5.00
Depends whether May's message of demonstrating loyalty, or not, before being allowed back is still ringing in his ears, and if he's been chastened by his experiences of recent months.
Faustina, the first wife of Constantine the Great, Eudoxia, the wife of Arcadius, Helena, the wife of Constantine Porphyrigenitus, and Theophano. the mother of Basil II, were equally interesting.
Mr. Eagles/Mr. Slackbladder, conventions are best followed, though. One refers one to the current travails of the Labour Party.
My thanks for the correction.
The Lords is meant to be a revising chamber, not a reversing chamber. I think they forget that sometimes.
Thanks for those suggestions. I shall make a note, and may write a part 2 at some point (although a review of Twelve Caesars and a grumble about the new PS4 shall likely be first).
Is she mates with Diane Abbott?
My parents for instance...
Grammar schools were such a disaster for most of the shadow cabinet, ended up being trapped in an antisemitic cult https://t.co/XRkjVG0szO
Given that we are perforce becoming an knowledge and creative economy, it is long overdue that education followed suit. And that the institutions also developed a sense of purpose greater than themselves and profit.
General restriction on selection by ability or aptitude.
.(1) No admission arrangements for a maintained school may make provision for selection by ability unless—
(a) they make provision for a permitted form of such selection; or
(b) the school is a grammar school (as defined by section 104(7)).
.(2) The following are permitted forms of selection by ability—
.(a) any selection by ability authorised by section 100 (pre-existing arrangements);
.(b) any selection by ability authorised by section 101 (pupil banding); and
.(c) any selection by ability conducted in connection with the admission of pupils to the school for secondary education suitable to the requirements of pupils who are over compulsory school age.
.(3) No admission arrangements for a maintained school may make provision for selection by aptitude unless they make provision for a permitted form of such selection.
.(4) The following are permitted forms of selection by aptitude—
.(a) any selection by aptitude authorised by section 100 (pre-existing arrangements); and
.(b) any selection by aptitude authorised by section 102 (aptitude for particular subjects)."
So it may be possible to expand existing schools (as has already been outlined) or to have specialist streaming for individual subjects with expertise in a particular school (for which ability in that subject is used as a criteria) but a swathe of new schools requires new legislation and I don't see how that passes.
Presumably May thinks this fits well with her aspirational Britain vision of the Conservatives. Personally, I am not so sure.
You can see here that Irene was really attractive as a young woman. According to some accounts, she was chosen to be Empress by means of a beauty contest, like Esther. She bears more than a passing resemblance to Cersei.
The other helpful thing for May is there are good reasons to believe very little grammar expansion will ever happen and not for several years. But as it's a distraction strategy that doesn't matter.
If David Davis can come back, anything is possible.