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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » August Local By-Election Summary and Important Notice
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » August Local By-Election Summary and Important Notice
The Lochs (Non Party Independent defence) on Fife
Result: Labour 1,318 (47% +1%), Scottish National Party 1,079 (39% +20%), Conservative 270 (10% +7%), Communist 86 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 45 (2%, no candidate in 2012)
Labour GAIN from Non Party Independent on the fourth count with a lead of 239 (8%) on a swing of 9.5% from Lab to SNP
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Did anyone watch the Lisa Duffy interview on C4?
I know I'm not in the UKIP demographic, but...
Fckn hell.
1. Strike while the blood hasn't dried on the Lab leadership contest and we might win some really unexpected seats where Momentum stand IndyLab Corbynite candidates against Blairite incumbants and vice versa. Potential for split votes and shock Tory gains amidst all the bad blood on the left.
2. Create an even bigger problem for Lab following the boundary review. Fewer successor seat incumbancies for them to fight over, and ideally some messy contests as per the above still fresh in the memory.
3. Get in before the LibDem comeback materialises. This will probably happen before 2020, and it will be far less affected by the boundary review because those Southern rural seats tend to be fairly large, with growing electorates. So return all those Tories who won in 2015, ideally with an incumbancy bounce and increased majority, while the LD numbers are still in the doldrums.
4. Give some of the old guard one more full term so that they can stand down when it matters - e.g. in the following election once the new boundaries take effect and there are fewer seats to fight for, making things easier for the new intake next time around.
Paid a cheque in at the bank today and was surprised to find I didn't need to enter my pin-code with my card. Isn't that a bit of a security risk?
The problem with doing any calculations on the Electoral Commissions first provisional boundaries is that in many cases on past performance bear little relationship to the final proposals after at least 1 and probably 2 sets of public consultation .
A 5 way contest with FPTP and no precedent can be quite unpredictable.
Unfortunately I can't help too much unless you'd like details of elections in Jumeira, Al Wasl and Umm Sequeim
Reminds me a bit of the main point of the Jurassic Park novel. The computer programme was designed to alert people if the number of dinosaurs was less than expected, but didn't tell people if the number was more than expected because no-one thought that would be important.
I think with a giro form one can still credit another's account anyway, can't one?
Will no one think about the children + the mortgage...
Just waiting for the inevitable squealing from those lawyers
Also this makes my dream of a holographic May appearing before the Council to execute Article 50 is one step closer...
Incidentally, when did Blair lose his one strong ability to gauge the views of the British people. He seems so way off now...
One of the reasons my parents left HSBC after banking with them for nearly 40 years was they refused to take an above normal cash deposit (around 3k) because my Mother didn't have a receipt for where the cash from, because a fortnight earlier my Dad had deposited £300 in cash for selling his phone to CEX.
Where the real money laundering/proceeds of low level crime is happening these days is via the prepaid top up debit cards.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3757386/Slave-girls-aged-six-workers-racked-ill-health-ruthless-exploitation-countless-deaths-barbaric-reality-life-Poldark-s-tin-mines.html
I remember someone once explaining carousel VAT fraud to me. My first thought was: if you can come up with that, can't you come up with a legitimate business concern?
She'd faint if I told her the stake....
Family viewing allegedly. God, it was bad.
i) My mother isn't aware of the existence of spread betting
or
ii) The level of my potential exposures in spread betting
That being said, Rogue One looks AWESOME
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frdj1zb9sMY
Billions is about a supposedly amoral Hedge Fund Manager Bobby Axelrod, and in his office he has a book by Robert Smithson
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/769276404278198294
Her reply:
'But what about all the times you lost? The trouble with you gamblers is that you always remember when you win and forget all the occasions when you lose'.
Since then I haven't bothered raising the topic...
Been six years since I last visited Leeds, when I arrived via the East Coast Line via Doncaster.
My only whinge is that Luke didn't say a thing upon seeing Rey for the first time.
I am Cornish, and I grew up surrounded by the faded memories of Cornish industry: uncles who knew all about metallurgy, great aunts who could talk knowledgeably of ‘the deads’ or spoil from a Cornish mine.
For an industry which only closed in the Seventies — when the last Cornish mines yielded to competition from Malaysia and Australia — the tale of Cornish mining goes back all the way to the Bronze Age. '
Sean's 'proper research' didn't extend as far as:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Cornwall_and_Devon#Later_modern_period
' The collapse of the world tin cartel in 1986 was the end for Cornish and Devonian tin mining. The most recent mine in Devon to produce tin ore was Hemerdon Mine near Plympton in the 1980s. The last Cornish tin mine in production at South Crofty closed in 1998. Work enabled the re-opening of the Hemerdon tungsten and tin mine in south-west Devon as Drakelands Mine in 2015. '
And a very early BBC website article on the 1998 closure of the last Cornish tin mine:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/53614.stm
He is right though about it being health destroying work.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/769293280945246208
Very distinct from the actual structure of what that leaving means.
For me we need that trigger asap...before the paddy pantsdown of this world get a head of steam up for another referendum. If the economy turns down, which i have to say seems increasingly unlikely.