I have just seen the Labour debate in Scotland. Whatever else happens then Kezia Dugdale cannot continue as Labour leader. When her name was mentioned the audience LAUGHED ie a Labour audience laughs at the mention of their leader. Whatever trouble Corbyn is in Dugdale is n much deeper.
I have just seen the Labour debate in Scotland. Whatever else happens then Kezia Dugdale cannot continue as Labour leader. When her name was mentioned the audience LAUGHED ie a Labour audience laughs at the mention of their leader. Whatever trouble Corbyn is in Dugdale is n much deeper.
This is such a cliched statement I cannot believe I am making it, and I acknowledge Scotland is not my area of expertise, but what exactly are Labour for in Scotland anymore?
The SNP are dominant and likely will be some while yet, Independence or not, the Tories have been hit a bit by the Brexit vote but are still clearly a safe choice for people putting Unionism above all else and, I suppose, actual conservatives as well, the LDs are doing poorly but in percentage terms better than in England sometimes but in any case presumably are looking to hold what they have rather than have pretensions to regain a former status like Labour. They all have a pretty simple mission statement: Dominate, Unionism and Survival.
What about SLAB? Are they pro-Indy yet or not, I cannot recall. What's the goal?
On topic. Article 50 declared, boundary changes through then an election at the earliest possible date. 2018 - 4.2 on Betfair, same price for 2019.
The Conservatives would face several risks by waiting until the new boundaries are in play. Firstly, following heavy election defeats in May 2017 if Corbyn stays on, more Labour members would have come to accept the reality that Corbyn is an inevitable general election loser, enough to oust him in Autumn 2017. Second, the shine may have come off May with the passage of time. Third, under brand new boundaries, the incumbency effect that so helped the Conservatives in 2015 will have been diluted without allowing for some time for a sitting MP to court electors outside of their old constituency.
Granted, the first two of those may not come to pass. But May will need to take a view on whether they might in time for May 2017.
Labour can effectively delay an election this year until December 1st or 8th. Too late in the year I suspect!
Why do I get the feeling there's something big going to (figuratively) blow up in the face of either or both Clinton or Trump before the election?
They've both got way too many skeletons and are campaigning far too negatively, for something not to come out that makes one or other of them completely unfit for office in the eyes of the public.
Julian Assanage really seems to be gunning for Clinton.
Yes, and I think he's saving things up too - one revelation a week for October, with each more serious than the last?
I get the feeling there's something in the Foundation from when she was SoS that will look like a huge pile of personal cash in exchange for a policy, from someone foreign and powerful.
It's really difficult to read what's going on in the US right now, I've got a total of a tenner on Trump at about 5/1 from half way through the primaries, which I think represents value. But then again he could go down to a landslide, or could win a landslide if he gets the DNVs out. I haven't a bloody clue!!
There is already stuff in the public that looks at best shall we say ill advised and worst exactly that. One problem is the whole thing is very complex and not easy to sum up in a simple soundbite....which appears to be what is required.
Also, even Fox don't want Trump, so who is going run with anything...and as you say it isn't exactly hard to find dodgy things about Trumps past.
Vote Trump in and impeach him within 3 months. The obvious solution.
Would enough Senate Republicans vote to impeach him though?
If the sitting President is impeached and kicked out, what is the process to determine his replacement?
Simple - the Vice President becomes President, until at least the next election.
Or until he/ she has chosen a vice president and then is successfully impeached - we could go through several.
I have just seen the Labour debate in Scotland. Whatever else happens then Kezia Dugdale cannot continue as Labour leader. When her name was mentioned the audience LAUGHED ie a Labour audience laughs at the mention of their leader. Whatever trouble Corbyn is in Dugdale is n much deeper.
Isn't that just because she backs Smith?
That just confirms how crap and stupid she is
So Leader has been in power for less than a year and it's her fault that an existing trend continues?
Oh dear, oh dear oh dear. What a smartass you continue to prove yourself.
Why do I get the feeling there's something big going to (figuratively) blow up in the face of either or both Clinton or Trump before the election?
They've both got way too many skeletons and are campaigning far too negatively, for something not to come out that makes one or other of them completely unfit for office in the eyes of the public.
Julian Assanage really seems to be gunning for Clinton.
Yes, and I think he's saving things up too - one revelation a week for October, with each more serious than the last?
I get the feeling there's something in the Foundation from when she was SoS that will look like a huge pile of personal cash in exchange for a policy, from someone foreign and powerful.
It's really difficult to read what's going on in the US right now, I've got a total of a tenner on Trump at about 5/1 from half way through the primaries, which I think represents value. But then again he could go down to a landslide, or could win a landslide if he gets the DNVs out. I haven't a bloody clue!!
There is already stuff in the public that looks at best shall we say ill advised and worst exactly that. One problem is the whole thing is very complex and not easy to sum up in a simple soundbite....which appears to be what is required.
Also, even Fox don't want Trump, so who is going run with anything...and as you say it isn't exactly hard to find dodgy things about Trumps past.
Vote Trump in and impeach him within 3 months. The obvious solution.
Would enough Senate Republicans vote to impeach him though?
If the sitting President is impeached and kicked out, what is the process to determine his replacement?
Simple - the Vice President becomes President, until at least the next election.
Or until he/ she has chosen a vice president and then is successfully impeached - we could go through several.
Come on! It is not the Labour party we are talking about!
Presidential Impeachment is a long and slow process, not a swift way to depose a fool.
Small sample of 500 so MoE and Floridian Jewish voters tend to Dems above the national average. Trump doing a few points worse than Romney in the state as he is generally in Florida.
Small sample of 500 so MoE and Floridian Jewish voters tend to Dems above the national average. Trump doing a few points worse than Romney in the state as he is generally in Florida.
There is very scant evidence to support a Conservative lead of 11%. If anything all the recent ACTUAL polling date suggests they are falling back. But anyway no government is going to call for two votes of no confidence in itself and expect the media and public to keep a straight face.
Aside, of course, from all the actual polls. So, on one side, we've got YouGov, Mori, ICM, TNS all pointing to ~double-digit polling leads for the Tories. And "Best PM", confidence in Leader, economic credibility questions all compatible with, if anything, larger leads.
On the other, we have - sorry, you'll have to help me out. What was your "ACTUAL polling data"?
The main problem with the polls is their tendency to over state Labour vote share. Factor that in and 15 point leads will become the base line.
Not always true - particularly when Labour is doing badly as in 2010 and 1983. On both occasions the polls understated Labour - as they also did in February 1974.
Small sample of 500 so MoE and Floridian Jewish voters tend to Dems above the national average. Trump doing a few points worse than Romney in the state as he is generally in Florida.
Labour - 'surely they couldn’t cope with a snap general election?'
The PLP are not on speaking terms with their leader, the membership want to see most of the PLP deselected and Jeremy refuses to speak to most of the media.
Handle a snap election? Corbyn and his inner circle couldn’t even book and reserve seats on a trip to Newcastle.
They might just be saying this stuff to make sure their supporters don't get complacent and actually bother to vote. But, yes, they don't sound especially confident.
Why do I get the feeling there's something big going to (figuratively) blow up in the face of either or both Clinton or Trump before the election?
They've both got way too many skeletons and are campaigning far too negatively, for something not to come out that makes one or other of them completely unfit for office in the eyes of the public.
Julian Assanage really seems to be gunning for Clinton.
Yes, and I think he's saving things up too - one revelation a week for October, with each more serious than the last?
I get the feeling there's something in the Foundation from when she was SoS that will look like a huge pile of personal cash in exchange for a policy, from someone foreign and powerful.
It's really difficult to read what's going on in the US right now, I've got a total of a tenner on Trump at about 5/1 from half way through the primaries, which I think represents value. But then again he could go down to a landslide, or could win a landslide if he gets the DNVs out. I haven't a bloody clue!!
There is already stuff in the public that looks at best shall we say ill advised and worst exactly that. One problem is the whole thing is very complex and not easy to sum up in a simple soundbite....which appears to be what is required.
Also, even Fox don't want Trump, so who is going run with anything...and as you say it isn't exactly hard to find dodgy things about Trumps past.
Vote Trump in and impeach him within 3 months. The obvious solution.
Would enough Senate Republicans vote to impeach him though?
If the sitting President is impeached and kicked out, what is the process to determine his replacement?
Simple - the Vice President becomes President, until at least the next election.
Or until he/ she has chosen a vice president and then is successfully impeached - we could go through several.
Come on! It is not the Labour party we are talking about!
Presidential Impeachment is a long and slow process, not a swift way to depose a fool.
Labour have taken over a year and still not managed it.
Comments
The SNP are dominant and likely will be some while yet, Independence or not, the Tories have been hit a bit by the Brexit vote but are still clearly a safe choice for people putting Unionism above all else and, I suppose, actual conservatives as well, the LDs are doing poorly but in percentage terms better than in England sometimes but in any case presumably are looking to hold what they have rather than have pretensions to regain a former status like Labour. They all have a pretty simple mission statement: Dominate, Unionism and Survival.
What about SLAB? Are they pro-Indy yet or not, I cannot recall. What's the goal?
Quite the most remarkable political development of the week for me was comments of Mr N. Sarkozy.
What must the atmosphere in continental Europe be like if that is where he thinks the votes are.
Clinton 66 .. Trump 23
http://jewishinsider.com/9163/clinton-leads-trump-by-43-points-among-jewish-voters-in-florida/
OK .. Jewish voters only ..
In Gallup it was only a 30 point lead earlier in the year.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/191918/race-gender-biggest-differentiators-views-clinton-trump.aspx
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gary-johnson-isnt-fading/
Oh dear, oh dear oh dear. What a smartass you continue to prove yourself.
Presidential Impeachment is a long and slow process, not a swift way to depose a fool.
Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 6% Stein 2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mason_Dixon_FL_Aug_2016.pdf
We need a thread to discuss this... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37184118
The PLP are not on speaking terms with their leader, the membership want to see most of the PLP deselected and Jeremy refuses to speak to most of the media.
Handle a snap election? Corbyn and his inner circle couldn’t even book and reserve seats on a trip to Newcastle.
Oh, and good evening all.