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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From Labour’s conference problems Mrs May might infer Labou

In the past 24 hours, Labour’s annual conference has been thrown into doubt, as Labour were snubbed by G4S, the firm Labour had been boycotting until recently. Labourlist writes
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Also at this point her own MPs are probably a bigger risk to May than Labour, so she should probably take the time making sure the next round of selections and/or retirements work out to her advantage.
Teachers of which sex?
Worked fine, except our sadistic Chemistry teacher who insisted on fingers being stretched backwards for maximum pain.
2018 - 4.2 on Betfair, same price for 2019.
They seem to be on pretty good terms with most organisations likely to cause trouble.
The provisional boundaries will be released next month before the conferences (assuming they happen), so MPs and party members will have an idea of the lie of the land.
The bigger problem with an early election, as always, is 'how?' No Confidencing yourself looks daft and the public often don't like that kind of stunt. It might also backfire with the risk that Corbyn might be invited to form a government and go into the election as PM. On the other hand, finding the 434 MPs needed to vote through an early election will be almost impossible.
Any markets on the Conference not happening as scheduled?
Would be a casus belli for reforming the House of Lords.
Also at this point her own MPs are probably a bigger risk to May than Labour, so she should probably take the time making sure the next round of selections and/or retirements work out to her advantage.
That is far more easily said than done in the Conservative Party. As you say, the MPs are May's biggest threat: why raise their ire by striking at their powerbase - their seat? It would take several years for her to rid herself of her awkward squad; they could remove her in a week. And many of that same awkward squad are well-respected in their own constituencies so cannot easily be removed that way.
May's best option is to win a big enough majority that she doesn't really have to listen to them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvfXvW2wsuQ
http://combatsdroitshomme.blog.lemonde.fr/files/2016/08/CE-26-août-2016-LDH-CCIF-402742-burkini-villeneuve-loubet.pdf
I never thought I'd say this but huzzah for the French (judiciary)
To be honest, when talking about schooldays, I've not encountered anyone who can't tell stories about dodgy teachers. I remember one who took a real shine to a very pretty boy in my Latin class, and used to read him Latin homosexual love poetry.
Bit cut and run if she goes for it now, not to mention no invocation of Article 50.
Better to wait for the boundaries.
Good to see the burkhini ban appears to be axed. Shame that Khan's ban on bikini ads remains in place.
I only recall one girl getting hit with a ruler across the back of her hand. The boys' school regularly had tales of ruler backsides/sticking bog roll down their pants if they thought it was likely. Throwing a board rubber was another - those chalk marks never came out of a blazer.
Firstly, following heavy election defeats in May 2017 if Corbyn stays on, more Labour members would have come to accept the reality that Corbyn is an inevitable general election loser, enough to oust him in Autumn 2017.
Second, the shine may have come off May with the passage of time.
Third, under brand new boundaries, the incumbency effect that so helped the Conservatives in 2015 will have been diluted without allowing for some time for a sitting MP to court electors outside of their old constituency.
Granted, the first two of those may not come to pass. But May will need to take a view on whether they might in time for May 2017.
Every police force has since 1829 a scale of charges for renting out police officers for private functions and a set of rules to go with it. Given Home Office consent, the Merseyside force could rent out its officers to do the perimeter security work and call in officers from surrounding forces to cover other duties (or do it the other way round). The other forces would charge Merseyside and they would charge the Labour Party.
There are two problems I can see with such a plan. Firstly, no chief constable in his/her right mind would accept the risks of the operation given the time he/she has to plan for it. Secondly, it would bankrupt the Labour Party.
Election YearConference SeasonThere is clearly still a mindset that says it's fair game for governments to call an election when they fancy it. It's not. It's not fair to the other parties and it's not fair to the public. The FTPA wasn't a perfectly-designed piece of legislation but whether by accident or design, it's left the system better than it was before.
If there is genuinely a need for an election then the government should put down the requisite notice in the Commons, as provided for by the Act.
Are you seeking to outlaw caps too ?
Have to say, the teacher was known as one of the 'nice' teachers, but was always a little too unctuous a la Ricky Gervais.
The risk of civil disorder claims nix the whole idea IMO.
Unless ShowSec is somehow appeased, I don't see how Labour get around this. Corbyn isn't going to cross a picket line.
If the violence meted out in 2004 had been repeated on any leftist march, labour would have been screaming for a public enquiry.
Because they were countrysiders, it was open season.
And, none of this stuff happened long ago. I have a friend whose sister got fired from her prestigious public girls' school, a few years ago, after she complained to the Head about the behaviour of one of the maths teachers towards the girls. He was obsessed with measuring their breasts, and was infatuated with one girl who he described as a "little whore" in front of the class.
Open to all.
However, look what Labour have offered me in my adult years: Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Blair ('97/'01 vintage was fine), Brown, Milliband, Corbyn. Good God.
The wilds of Wyoming are about as far from Wall St as you can get
On topic, are the Tories certain of getting the boundaries through? There's no other party on board as far as I know. And why should there be, when the proposals are all about making life easier for the Tories (and Labour actually - fewer seats under FPTP just makes it harder for anyone else to get a look in.) So it's presumably relying on the Tory majority. How many MPs facing their seats being chopped up might vote against? And what if the Lords voted it down - would there be enough time to invoke the Parliament Act before the 2020 General Election?
This is most entertaining in a grim way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COt65HZCJaA
My thinking was:
1. Invoking A50 prevents Labour or the LDs running on a manifesto of overturning the public referendum vote, allowing campaigning only on the type of Brexit rather than the concept itself.
2. Waiting for the boundaries gifts the Tories potentially 20 seats.
3. By starting to plan now for a 2018 election, the Tory whips can get MPs in seats, identify retirees for a kick to the red benches or a big gong, accommodate redundant MEPs, identify notionally marginal seats etc etc. Meanwhile Labour will be in chaos trying to deselect existing MPs and stand 'approved' candidates on the redrawn boundaries, all in a matter of weeks.
4. If Corbyn wins this leadership vote, the takeover of the Labour Party by the hard left is pretty much complete. There's no chance they'll find a moderate to take over before 2018, and little chance of it happening before 2020. The likes of Dan Jarvis will be top of the list for deselection.
P.S. I refer to my earlier post which noted that on the polling Labour is still on the same level that it was at the GE. Mr. RottenBorough, gent and I think lefty of this parish, posted that he thinks Labour are really on 22%.
I remember listening to a fascinating programme on Radio 4 featuring a young man who began an affair with is teacher when he was 15, and married her after leaving school. Social services and police knew very well what was going on, but he lied repeatedly to them to protect her.
He claimed he was stressed.
Overheard from a woman trying to impress a fellow holiday maker at the poolside:
"I would be a Waitrose shopper, if we had a Waitrose."
From what I gather, Red Bull and Force India look good, Ferrari look lacklustre. Hamilton might try for one fewer pit stop than others.
Bit hotter than it will be on race day, though, so that may change things.
Mr. Betting, molestation by women or against boys/men tends to get played down or ignored. A third of Rotherham victims were boys, and a majority of those staff in the Commons receiving unwanted advances (to put it mildly) from MPs were male.
Mr. Llama, alas, been busy with writing works of fiction and have not had time for updating the manifesto to face the important challenges of today.
To my own children, it will probably seem as anachronistic and medieval as the stocks, or dunking.
Ferrari are a mess, they've also taken all the downforce off their car and are really struggling with the twisty bits, Force India are looking like good outside bets for a podium, they may start 4th and 5th, in front of the Ferraris but behind Rosberg and the Red Bulls.
Agree entirely, and I'll be checking the odds on Force India top 6, unless qualifying goes wonky.
Teenagers are so pumped full of hormones they don't even think.
Later on you look back and think.. Hang on?
Ooh Sir
Suit you Sir
It's already changing society drastically.
He might make use of the otherwise crap medium tyre to pass the back half of the grid on a one-stop, or might start with the soft and save a set of super softs for the last 10 laps.
Should be a great race, lots of strategy options, but I think we all agree not to bet on his qualy lap tomorrow!
Even with speed advantage, the likes of Williams, Force India and Ferrari might be tricky to pass.