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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Smith should acknowledge that JC’s the likely winner and pr

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  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @flashboy: Train A leaves London at 1100 travelling at 80mph. Train B leaves Newcastle at 1130 travelling at 70mph. When does the MSM report the TRUTH
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    jonny83 said:

    Jeremy Corbyn - The Ryan Lochte of British politics.

    I have to say it's hilarious and it couldn't happen to a better person. Serves him right for going on about privatizing the railways all the time. If he didn't it wouldn't be such a big issue.
    I meant moaning about privatization and wanting to re-nationalize them. Serves me right typing when tired.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    Mortimer said:

    Virgin Manchester to Euston, first class, is the best train journey in the country.

    It is the AV of the railway system.

    Best train journey is probably the Caledonian Sleeper, and waking up in the Highlands.
    I've done that as far as Edinburgh. My problem was that I only got to sleep around Carlisle....
    My level of excitement approaching a sleeper train exceeds that of a six year old boy on Christmas Eve.

    I sleep ok with the rhythm. They provide decent pillows and duvets now and you just need to make sure the cabin is properly dimmed. Waking up to the views and breakfast in bed is awesome.

    To sleep, my wife and I will also be aided by knocking back a few whiskeys in the restaurant car.
    How tall are you? They're not really made for the taller gentleman.
    6'
    I've always wanted to do the sleeper - the nearest I've got was a sleeping compartment on an old sleeper carriage at a preserved railway. Darned uncomfortable and not long enough for my 6'2" frame.

    It's always put me off using the sleeper services. If you're comfortable at 6', perhaps I should persuade Mrs J to drop the little 'un off with my parents and make a pilgrimage to Fort Bill.
    Do the Sleeper, do the Sleeper, do the Sleeper..

    Best thing ever. Check out website of the man in seat 61 for more.
    Great website - has anyone done the 'anywhere in the UK to Ireland for almost no money' journey?

    I'm tempted by this - especially as the PBFA Dublin Book Fair is approaching: http://www.pbfa.org/book-fairs/dublin-/4949
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I meant moaning about privatization and wanting to re-nationalize them. Serves me right typing when tired. ''

    Of course, part of the railway (the tracks and signals) is renationalised already. Often its that bit that causes the problem.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    I don't understans the Russian government some times. I get they are mad their athletes are banned from the paralympics and say it is illegal, unfair and a conspiracy. But the bbc Quote them as saying even if their sports organisations were guilty it would violate the rights of the athletes to ban them as a result.

    What? How exactly would Russia be punished if you cannot punish it's athletes. The whole point is it wasn't a few bad apples but the apple grower who was the problem. The good apples may be put out, but we need to section off the Orchard for now.
  • Options
    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Mortimer said:

    Virgin Manchester to Euston, first class, is the best train journey in the country.

    It is the AV of the railway system.

    Best train journey is probably the Caledonian Sleeper, and waking up in the Highlands.
    I've done that as far as Edinburgh. My problem was that I only got to sleep around Carlisle....
    My level of excitement approaching a sleeper train exceeds that of a six year old boy on Christmas Eve.

    I sleep ok with the rhythm. They provide decent pillows and duvets now and you just need to make sure the cabin is properly dimmed. Waking up to the views and breakfast in bed is awesome.

    To sleep, my wife and I will also be aided by knocking back a few whiskeys in the restaurant car.
    How tall are you? They're not really made for the taller gentleman.
    6'
    I've always wanted to do the sleeper - the nearest I've got was a sleeping compartment on an old sleeper carriage at a preserved railway. Darned uncomfortable and not long enough for my 6'2" frame.

    It's always put me off using the sleeper services. If you're comfortable at 6', perhaps I should persuade Mrs J to drop the little 'un off with my parents and make a pilgrimage to Fort Bill.
    Do the Sleeper, do the Sleeper, do the Sleeper..

    Best thing ever. Check out website of the man in seat 61 for more.
    Have you tried the VS Orient Express? Rather archaic, but the beds are surprisingly comfortable.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Meanwhile in safe space land, the way to tackle a fictional pay gap is to force fathers to have paternity leave:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37164297

    That article might be the most stupid I've ever seen from the media.

    It's more stupid than when Richard Bilton [BBC reporter] asked a Greek fireman "Is it dangerous?" [referring to a forest fire].
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Spider
    can see why Corbynistas are all screaming fake about #traingate https://t.co/RkL9eecKlk
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    nunu said:

    That is gonna cause twitter to go into meltdown. If Virgin have been even a little remiss in their evidence gathering, the Corbynistas will be out demonstrating.
    They'll want to boycott Virgin trains, but Branson was lobbying for a second Ref, so they won't know what to do. Their little heads will explode.
    Europhile Branson is clearly hoping for a Smith victory to get that second crack at a referendum.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2016
    I wonder if traingate will turn into Jezza's equivalent of Miliband's bacon sandwich. In of itself it isn't really very important, but it was the attempted spin and the resulting ludicrous images that did for him.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :smiley:

    Darren McCaffrey
    BRACE. BRACE. Told statement from Team Corbyn coming shortly. #traingate
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Meanwhile in safe space land, the way to tackle a fictional pay gap is to force fathers to have paternity leave:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37164297

    That article might be the most stupid I've ever seen from the media.

    It's more stupid than when Richard Bilton [BBC reporter] asked a Greek fireman "Is it dangerous?" [referring to a forest fire].

    BBC give their opinion and say "arguably the best way".
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    @rcs1000

    On your education point I don't know if you caught the reflections program on R4 at 9 this morning with Lord Baker. It was surprisingly interesting but the most interesting point was right at the end when he developed the idea that millions of middle management type jobs currently held by those with arts degrees are going to disappear very rapidly over the next few years with increased automation and smart systems.

    oh dear, what a shame, how sad, don't bang the door on the way out with your P45s as you head to the jobcentre facing the prospect of earning a living at last....
  • Options

    Surely the real point is why was he sitting on the floor not standing up? Who does that?

    Indeed - Elton John is about the same age and he's Still Standing.

    Sorry, I'll get my own coat...
    I've been told he only stands when the train is in junction.
    The train wasn't furnished with enough seats?
    Elton also wrote a song about "Passengers" :)
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Blimey, Janan's cut to the chase here:
    https://twitter.com/JananGanesh/status/768116250836807680
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    If that mine ever produces significant amounts of fertiliser in the middle of a national park I'll eat Vince Cables hat.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    rcs1000 said:

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back.

    If every country in the first wave of industrialisation took the same view we would all end up being in the position of our former colonies vis-a-vis China.

    Protecting manufacturing and aiming for a balanced economy is not just an economic but a strategic issue.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Darren McCaffrey
    BRACE. BRACE. Told statement from Team Corbyn coming shortly. #traingate

    This is the one time you don't issue a press release, there's nothing you can that will improve this situation. Just ignore it and it will go away after a few days.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think free trade was indeed a good thing (at least for us) when we had exactly the sort of monopoly that you are talking about. The problem is we went from there to here taking along an extremely simplistic concept of comparative advantage on the way. The default assumption of our political class is still informed by this, hence American politicians pushing so hard for unpopular policies like NAFTA and TTIP. I just question whether these default assumptions are indeed good.

    To take your Port Talbot example retaining a steel industry in this country retains a skill base here, it reduces imports, it makes materials more readily available should local producers want a particular product and can be said to support our manufacturing base generally. Is this worth a bit of money?

    The answer is I think unclear for the reasons you state and the knock on effects are somewhat unpredictable but the answers mainstream economics offer us are naïve and uninformative.

    Re Port Talbot. Does it meaningfully reduce imports? You still need to buy coal from abroad and iron ore. In any case, I suspect mini-mills in the UK, attached to cheap CCGTs, are still going to outcompete PT in the medium term.

    But I think the important bit is that there are high labour cost countries that have minimal unemployment, and which have vibrant manufacturing bases.

    They didn't achieve this through protectionism. When you implement protectionism, what you get is industrialists bribing government ministers in return for tariffs for their particular industry. That does not end well.
    Or you get industrialists bribing commissioners to introduce regulatory directives that put you at an advantage vs your smaller competitiors who being smaller are hit much harder by the cost of compliance.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    That is just cruel... spill (in private ofc) please!
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Blimey, Janan's cut to the chase here:
    https://twitter.com/JananGanesh/status/768116250836807680

    Well it did need saying.

    Of course he is part of the conspiracy against JC
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mortimer said:

    Virgin Manchester to Euston, first class, is the best train journey in the country.

    It is the AV of the railway system.

    Best train journey is probably the Caledonian Sleeper, and waking up in the Highlands.
    I've done that as far as Edinburgh. My problem was that I only got to sleep around Carlisle....
    My level of excitement approaching a sleeper train exceeds that of a six year old boy on Christmas Eve.

    I sleep ok with the rhythm. They provide decent pillows and duvets now and you just need to make sure the cabin is properly dimmed. Waking up to the views and breakfast in bed is awesome.

    To sleep, my wife and I will also be aided by knocking back a few whiskeys in the restaurant car.
    How tall are you? They're not really made for the taller gentleman.
    6'
    I've always wanted to do the sleeper - the nearest I've got was a sleeping compartment on an old sleeper carriage at a preserved railway. Darned uncomfortable and not long enough for my 6'2" frame.

    It's always put me off using the sleeper services. If you're comfortable at 6', perhaps I should persuade Mrs J to drop the little 'un off with my parents and make a pilgrimage to Fort Bill.
    Do the Sleeper, do the Sleeper, do the Sleeper..

    Best thing ever. Check out website of the man in seat 61 for more.
    I did the sleeper to Glasgow, once. It was alright but I never felt the need to do it again. That was around about 1990 and the facilities and accommodation were very shabby and run down.

    However, I trying to persuade Herself that once the cat goes through the last great cat flap we should take the train down to Lisbon and that involves a sleeper for the last leg. I am quite excited by the idea.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Jeremy Corbyn - The Ryan Lochte of British politics.

    Lyin' Corbyn!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Meanwhile in safe space land, the way to tackle a fictional pay gap is to force fathers to have paternity leave:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37164297

    That article might be the most stupid I've ever seen from the media.

    It's more stupid than when Richard Bilton [BBC reporter] asked a Greek fireman "Is it dangerous?" [referring to a forest fire].

    None of those suggestions seems to be obviously sensible.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    MP_SE, are you an MP in the SE? :p
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    nunu said:

    Jeremy Corbyn - The Ryan Lochte of British politics.

    Lyin' Corbyn!
    The pious man is here to stay
    And he's burning down the commune
  • Options
    Is this press release going to be carved into a massive block of stone?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    A friend of mine has quite a sizeable personal position in that!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Darren McCaffrey
    BRACE. BRACE. Told statement from Team Corbyn coming shortly. #traingate

    LOL! Jeremy and Seumas don't understand silly season do they? The only thing they can do now by making a statement, is to keep this in the news for a few more days. Just ignore it and it goes away soon enough.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think free trade was indeed a good thing (at least for us) when we had exactly the sort of monopoly that you are talking about. The problem is we went from there to here taking along an extremely simplistic concept of comparative advantage on the way. The default assumption of our political class is still informed by this, hence American politicians pushing so hard for unpopular policies like NAFTA and TTIP. I just question whether these default assumptions are indeed good.

    To take your Port Talbot example retaining a steel industry in this country retains a skill base here, it reduces imports, it makes materials more readily available should local producers want a particular product and can be said to support our manufacturing base generally. Is this worth a bit of money?

    The answer is I think unclear for the reasons you state and the knock on effects are somewhat unpredictable but the answers mainstream economics offer us are naïve and uninformative.

    Re Port Talbot. Does it meaningfully reduce imports? You still need to buy coal from abroad and iron ore. In any case, I suspect mini-mills in the UK, attached to cheap CCGTs, are still going to outcompete PT in the medium term.

    But I think the important bit is that there are high labour cost countries that have minimal unemployment, and which have vibrant manufacturing bases.

    They didn't achieve this through protectionism. When you implement protectionism, what you get is industrialists bribing government ministers in return for tariffs for their particular industry. That does not end well.
    Or you get industrialists bribing commissioners to introduce regulatory directives that put you at an advantage vs your smaller competitiors who being smaller are hit much harder by the cost of compliance.
    Could you give me an example?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Darren McCaffrey
    BRACE. BRACE. Told statement from Team Corbyn coming shortly. #traingate

    LOL! Jeremy and Seumas don't understand silly season do they? The only thing they can do now by making a statement, is to keep this in the news for a few more days. Just ignore it and it goes away soon enough.
    No, this is a pivotal moment in the class struggle. You don't realise it but Corbyn has lured the arch capitalist villain Richard Branson into his trap. The opportunity shouldn't be wasted. :)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    If that mine ever produces significant amounts of fertiliser in the middle of a national park I'll eat Vince Cables hat.
    Isn't the existing mine at Boulby in the NP?

    I spent a night camping out near there a few years ago, on top of the highest cliffs on the East Coast.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sophie Ridge
    Team Corbyn respond to #traingate ... https://t.co/xWl24zuPsI
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2016
    Looks like Corbyn thought the same as me as regards reserved seats, that you can't sit in them even if there's no-one there at the time. But that's wrong apparently.
  • Options
    I had planned to publish an article tomorrow afternoon headlined 'Don't underestimate Jeremy Corbyn'

    Now I'm tempted to do a piece headlined 'Jeremy Corbyn, the man who couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory'
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sophie Ridge
    Team Corbyn respond to #traingate ... https://t.co/xWl24zuPsI

    From the comments including journos below, it seems this piles of lies statement might need a hurried rewrite...this really is like Ryan Lochte...we have the CCTV of you coming back to the village showing you will all the belonging you said were nicked...erhhh well I was still robbed of them bro...

    https://twitter.com/guyadams/status/768113913498050560
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004
    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    If that mine ever produces significant amounts of fertiliser in the middle of a national park I'll eat Vince Cables hat.
    The stock market disagrees with you: Sirius Minerals has a billion pound market capitalisation.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So was Corbyn sitting or lying on the train?

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    If that mine ever produces significant amounts of fertiliser in the middle of a national park I'll eat Vince Cables hat.
    The stock market disagrees with you: Sirius Minerals has a billion pound market capitalisation.
    Nearly half as valuable as Powa Technologies then...
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    Can't think of a public sector employee who is a household name.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    Can't think of a public sector employee who is a household name.
    Unless you count BBC or Channel 4.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think free trade was indeed a good thing (at least for us) when we had exactly the sort of monopoly that you are talking about. The problem is we went from there to here taking along an extremely simplistic concept of comparative advantage on the way. The default assumption of our political class is still informed by this, hence American politicians pushing so hard for unpopular policies like NAFTA and TTIP. I just question whether these default assumptions are indeed good.

    To take your Port Talbot example retaining a steel industry in this country retains a skill base here, it reduces imports, it makes materials more readily available should local producers want a particular product and can be said to support our manufacturing base generally. Is this worth a bit of money?

    The answer is I think unclear for the reasons you state and the knock on effects are somewhat unpredictable but the answers mainstream economics offer us are naïve and uninformative.

    Re Port Talbot. Does it meaningfully reduce imports? You still need to buy coal from abroad and iron ore. In any case, I suspect mini-mills in the UK, attached to cheap CCGTs, are still going to outcompete PT in the medium term.

    But I think the important bit is that there are high labour cost countries that have minimal unemployment, and which have vibrant manufacturing bases.

    They didn't achieve this through protectionism. When you implement protectionism, what you get is industrialists bribing government ministers in return for tariffs for their particular industry. That does not end well.
    Or you get industrialists bribing commissioners to introduce regulatory directives that put you at an advantage vs your smaller competitiors who being smaller are hit much harder by the cost of compliance.
    Could you give me an example?
    Switch the word "bribing" for "lobbying" and the EU will provide you with more examples than you can shake a stick at.

    Of course the difference between bribery and lobbying is sometimes hard to distinguish, as Cameron once famously noted (then, as usual, failed to do anything about).
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2016
    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    Can't think of a public sector employee who is a household name.
    Are roles like the Governor of the Bank of England considered a public sector employee / civil service post?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    If that mine ever produces significant amounts of fertiliser in the middle of a national park I'll eat Vince Cables hat.
    The stock market disagrees with you: Sirius Minerals has a billion pound market capitalisation.
    Nearly half as valuable as Powa Technologies then...
    I've never met Mr Wagner. And I'm sorry, it was a billion dollar market cap, not pounds.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    Can't think of a public sector employee who is a household name.
    Are roles like the Governor of the Bank of England considered a public sector employee / civil service post?
    Or BBC presenters...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    Sandpit said:
    That's a beautifully atmospheric picture. Anybody know any details?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Jessop, no, but I've seen several captions for it. Seems popular on Twitter.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The elephant in the room.

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/08/23/fbi-investigates-possible-beheading-attempt-virginia-suspect-may-islamic-state-recruit/

    Yes it IS Breitbart but the Guardian ran a very complimentary article about the organisation
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,708
    SeanT said:

    latest traingate press release from Labour

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/768117352458096640

    The weird thing is that this is also, clearly, a lie - as the CCTV footage shows. It's like they haven't even watched the vids. Bizarre.

    The CCTV also has the geographical coordinates of where the train was when the footage of Corbyn walking past the empty seats was taken.....

    51 deg 35' 35.0 N and 0 deg 06' 59.0W is just by the Alexandra Palace - well before Peterborough - so this 'seats became available after Peterborough' is just, well, horsefeathers....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2016

    SeanT said:

    latest traingate press release from Labour

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/768117352458096640

    The weird thing is that this is also, clearly, a lie - as the CCTV footage shows. It's like they haven't even watched the vids. Bizarre.

    The CCTV also has the geographical coordinates of where the train was when the footage of Corbyn walking past the empty seats was taken.....

    51 deg 35' 35.0 N and 0 deg 06' 59.0W is just by the Alexandra Palace - well before Peterborough - so this 'seats became available after Peterborough' is just, well, horsefeathers....
    But that data could have been faked ;-)

    If Virgin really want to bury him, they just have to tweet out an infographic showing this.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,465


    Re Port Talbot. Does it meaningfully reduce imports? You still need to buy coal from abroad and iron ore. In any case, I suspect mini-mills in the UK, attached to cheap CCGTs, are still going to outcompete PT in the medium term.

    But I think the important bit is that there are high labour cost countries that have minimal unemployment, and which have vibrant manufacturing bases.

    They didn't achieve this through protectionism. When you implement protectionism, what you get is industrialists bribing government ministers in return for tariffs for their particular industry. That does not end well.

    ____

    In Germany's case, that's exactly how they achieved it. Germany was industrialised by limiting British industrial imports. The rest of your point, I grant.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?

    I addressed this point in The Discontented, because I think it's very important.

    We - in the West - were rich because we had a monopoly on manufacturing. There was this magic we could do, that those in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, could not. They competed to send us commodities. We sent back manufactured goods in return.

    That monopoly is now gone.

    It will never come back. We need imports: we are not self sufficient in food or fuel. Not are we self sufficient in the fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphates or potassium) to grow food, should we so wish.

    Assume for a second there were no ill effects from protecting our domestic industries. We would still get poorer in this world, because as China and India grow, they will take a greater and greater share of the world's oil, natural gas, and the like. In this best case scenario, we'll get poorer because the cost of importing raw materials would rise.

    But this too rosy. Attempting to protect - say - Port Talbot may make us more self sufficient in steel. (Although, of course, we still need to import the coal and the iron ore to make the steel.) But it would be at the expense of making British car makers pay more for their steel. Does that work?

    Switzerland has some of the most expensive labour in the world. Yet it runs a visible goods trade surplus. Germany's labour is also now more expensive than ours, and it too runs a surplus.

    These countries have set up their educational systems to produce people with the right skills. We have not. (The great irony is that we spend our lives worrying about grammar schools, when we already offer pretty good education to the top 10% of students today. It's the bottom 50% we utterly fail.) I hope that Mrs May and her team will not be so distracted by Brexit they fail to make the changes to our education and benefits system that our country so desperately needs.
    Sirius Minerals are doing some interesting things in Yorkshire.
    If that mine ever produces significant amounts of fertiliser in the middle of a national park I'll eat Vince Cables hat.
    The stock market disagrees with you: Sirius Minerals has a billion pound market capitalisation.
    There have been bubbles before, but good luck to them.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Sandpit said:
    That's a beautifully atmospheric picture. Anybody know any details?

    Reverse image search at google gives:

    Irritating Gentleman - Berthold Woltze

  • Options
    @WelshGasDoc: Remember when a single still image of awkwardly eating a bacon sandwich was seen as a Public Relations mess?

    Happy days.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,465

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A worthy attempt to shut the EU braggarts up, but even I would have said comonwealth - and not included RoI and 13 US states.

    Still, it wound up all the usual suspects splendidly.



    https://twitter.com/HeatherWheeler/status/767756321219379201

    An American Facebook friend of mine was incredibly upset by the post. I told him to calm down.
    Clearly he feels bad that the 13 States no longer enjoy benevolent government from London.
    Even today, any American history of the revolutionary war can't resist painting the Redcoats as behaving in a way that'd have shamed the Waffen SS.

    A watched a couple of episodes of TurN on Prime, and laughed.

    It makes Cowboys and Indians look objective.
    Apparently, the British army of the 18th century employed foppish, sadistic, homosexuals as its officers who enjoyed raping manly Scots, Irish, and US patriots.
    Cold blooded murder, burning women and children alive, premeditated rape and punishment shootings.
    You have to remember, there was no television in those days.

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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited August 2016

    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    That is just cruel... spill (in private ofc) please!
    I think it will leak eventually as a ton of people know now and it is relatively easy to verify a lot of the details. How they got caught is the best bit.
    RobD said:

    MP_SE said:

    Ooooo. I have heard the most interesting piece of gossip. Well known former MP caught in bed with married senior public sector employee who is a household name.

    MP_SE, are you an MP in the SE? :p
    Although I live in the SE I am not an MP. The MP letters are meaningful to me though.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited August 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like Corbyn thought the same as me as regards reserved seats, that you can't sit in them even if there's no-one there at the time. But that's wrong apparently.

    If you ate past the station someone was supposed to be in the seat it's fair game.

    Even if he thought he couldn't sit in those he tried making a political point when he was mistaken, at best that is silly and shows him as just another politician.

    I'm sure this will mean nothing beyond amusing the Politically obsessed, though I thought the same of the Ed Stone, but it's still a needless story self created.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,708

    SeanT said:

    latest traingate press release from Labour

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/768117352458096640

    The weird thing is that this is also, clearly, a lie - as the CCTV footage shows. It's like they haven't even watched the vids. Bizarre.

    The CCTV also has the geographical coordinates of where the train was when the footage of Corbyn walking past the empty seats was taken.....

    51 deg 35' 35.0 N and 0 deg 06' 59.0W is just by the Alexandra Palace - well before Peterborough - so this 'seats became available after Peterborough' is just, well, horsefeathers....
    But that data could have been faked ;-)

    If Virgin really want to bury him, they just have to tweet out an infographic showing this.
    I'm sure the footage of 'a family being upgraded to First Class' (from empty, unreserved seats) will be along soon......
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Harry Cole
    Harriet Harman on #traingate "It is slightly baffling.... I'm really baffled, I don't know what's going on."
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    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    SeanT said:

    latest traingate press release from Labour

    htts://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/768117352458096640

    The weird thing is that this is also, clearly, a lie - as the CCTV footage shows. It's like they haven't even watched the vids. Bizarre.

    This is a man who can be smeared by quoting him exactly, lest we forget.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035

    Sandpit said:
    That's a beautifully atmospheric picture. Anybody know any details?

    Reverse image search at google gives:

    Irritating Gentleman - Berthold Woltze
    Thanks!

    I've never used Google's image search.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Ha. Branson is good at this PR game! 20% discount for Labour Conference delegates travelling from London to Liverpool.
    http://order-order.com/2016/08/23/virgin-trains-discount-for-labour-party-conference/
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Back to trains: How is that the railways in Europe are so much cheaper than those here?

    This afternoon I picked my son up from Gatwick; he flew back from Rome after spending a month inter-railing around Europe. Though he had an inter-rail ticket some of those who from time to time were travelling with didn't and, if they were American, not have the skills of the internet to sort out the best deals and routes.

    For example, it is he tells me, perfectly possible, without pre-booking, to do the four-hour journey from Munich to Prague for 36 Euros. The trick it would seem is to buy a ticket from Munich to the first stop over the border and get off, then buy a ticket from there to Prague.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Sandpit said:
    That's a beautifully atmospheric picture. Anybody know any details?
    The damsel in distress is Laura Trott and a rotter is attempting to seduce her with Lochte’s old sponsorship deals. – Possibly?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579

    Back to trains: How is that the railways in Europe are so much cheaper than those here?

    This afternoon I picked my son up from Gatwick; he flew back from Rome after spending a month inter-railing around Europe. Though he had an inter-rail ticket some of those who from time to time were travelling with didn't and, if they were American, not have the skills of the internet to sort out the best deals and routes.

    For example, it is he tells me, perfectly possible, without pre-booking, to do the four-hour journey from Munich to Prague for 36 Euros. The trick it would seem is to buy a ticket from Munich to the first stop over the border and get off, then buy a ticket from there to Prague.

    On the whole tickets in Europe aren't as market based as here, but newspaper's making comparisons cherry-pick.
This discussion has been closed.