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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Smith should acknowledge that JC’s the likely winner and pr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Smith should acknowledge that JC’s the likely winner and press for the highest possible vote to “send a message to the party”
This morning there’s been another effort by the Smith campaign to claim that “private polling” suggests that the battle is close and that he could win.
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Edit: or not.
Also First...after DQs and posters with 3x normal levels of testosterone.
Edit: I've just seen the Corbyn/train story. Ye gods. Its like he's being scripted by Armano Iannucci.
Lots of Corbynistas on Twitter trumpting that Corbyn is going to give the Jimmy Reid Memorial Lecture? I take it no-one's told him that Jimmy Reid quit Labour and joined the SNP.
It is the AV of the railway system.
EDIT - D'OH!
But others are quite reasonable - pocket money even, suitable to show saving for a few weeks can buy something good.
The big buckets of assorted bricks are the best value though.
Except this, which is currently on my desk at work. This was worth every penny:
http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Doctor-Who-21304
Business = Spiv Class
Economy/standard = Steerage
He has managed to be portrayed as soft on terrorism by Jeremy Corbyn. That's like being called obnoxious by Simon Cowell.
'I won last year. I won this year - even though people attempted to rig the system against me. I am the leader and I will stay the leader to represent the overwhelming majority of Labour members who have voted for me TWICE'
http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-MINDSTORMS-EV3-31313
This one is also worth every penny, for the 38 year old 12 year old.
Should Virgin sue him and the filmmakers for defamation and damages?
I know the private polling looks ridiculous to us but most people don't know the difference. And we're talking about people who are thinking about supporting Corbyn but may change their minds. The set of non-hardliners who think Labour may be better off with Corbyn probably maps very closely to the set of people who don't understand opinion polls.
Would be perfect if it departed from Saint Pancras, Kings X and Euston are awful stations.
Yes and no. If you want your own cabin its expensive. If you share a couchette, its a bit pot luck. And the dining car is pretty small.
presumably Smith doesn't think that there's a conflict between the two - although of course that depends on whether his assertions are believed as to his polling. There does seem to be a lot more anti-Corbyn noise, quite a bit of it coming from people who claim to have voted for him before but how reliable are their comments and how representative are they even if they are all telling the truth?
I do get the impression that the tide has turned and that we've passed Peak Corbyn - but is that simply the impression that those opposed to him want to give and, given their better media skills, are giving irrespective of the truth?
FWIW, I predicted in the competition that Corbyn would win by nine point something per cent.
Then i think...nah, labour's too far gone.
http://tinyurl.com/hkkdhc8
This is news to me. I thought we weren't allowed to sit on seats with tickets sticking out the top of them, even if there's no-one sitting on them.
But I've had enough popcorn.
As an aside, Mrs J came out of the bedroom the other day. She's been reading the LRB, and an article made her say: "I never thought I'd say this, but can we have Ed Miliband back please? We need a sane Labour party."
Labour are really in trouble if Ed's reign is seen as some form of glory days.
I want Son wants the new X-Wing.
Removing reserved tickets
But Corbyn’s team appear to be sticking to the original story. Asked if is was true that the train wasn’t full, a spokesperson for Corbyn’s campaign told BuzzFeed News: “That’s a lie. It was full and he gave his seat up so a woman could sit down. Others were sat in the aisles too!”
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/virgin-say-corbyn-train-wasnt-full?utm_term=.jdeAEDXZO#.tnzg15R0N
Ironically, Corbyn's campaign is also about 'sending a message', though in his case, a message to different people about different things. It does make you wonder if there's anyone in the party that wants to *do* something rather than pretest about it.
Oh hang on you wouldnt be anywhere near scum class in case you caught something nasty!!!
https://twitter.com/Sean_Kemp/status/768074472175857668
I usually get the train up from Sussex to St. Pancras and wait in that nice French Bistro/cafe with a glass of something pleasant before walking over to Kings Cross in time to board the train. The staff in both places are great and especially appreciated when my eyes are really bad.
Yet Corbyn's faux-seat nonsense seems to be virtually umentioned.
How low can Labour and their supporters go? I think they're deeper than the Clock Face Shaft. Might they beat the Mponeng gold mine?
In a previous job we were planning on making a robot wars robot using the mindstorms controller as the brains.
Corbyn is not to be trusted, if you didn't already know that...
Besides, the longer he stays in position, the more Labour's rules and processes will be perverted to keep him, and the likes of him, in power. That process is already well under way.
You might have to sit on the floor though...as all the empty seats are taken.
Both perfectly adequate.
John_M said:
I have been dubbed an expert (by people who would know, I hasten to add) during two periods of my career. It's not a magical power. I was mostly conscious of the huge amount of things I didn't know rather than the things I did.
My abiding view is the global economy has passed beyond the humanly comprehensible event horizon. It's just too complex, with too many factors to model accurately. Hence, while I'm perfectly happy to use the models that are available (e.g. NIESR), I do so in the knowledge that as far as predicting 2030 economic out turns is concerned, I may as well be examining chicken entrails and rattling the bones.
I said:
This is undoubtedly true and there are many fields of economics which are increasingly detached from the day to day experience.
For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?
Does cutting interest rates really stimulate a modern economy with more savers than borrowers? Or does it encourage people to save even more? Or, in the case of our recent cut, make people assume that there are troubles ahead?
Why is it suddenly ok for our government to buy up a significant percentage of its debt with money created for this purpose? Why has this policy had so little effect? And how do we avoid the trap that Japan has now been in for more than 20 years?
What we are missing is not ever more sophisticated models (because as you say the quantity of data is simply unending) but a structure that allows us to identify a number of key indicators that give us a sensible direction of travel. We need a JM Keynes for our day, someone who can give us a new vocabulary that can help us make sense of where we are and, more importantly, where we are going.
Owen SmithVerified account
@OwenSmith_MP
My campaign remains on track. Proud to be genuinely standing up for ordinary people.
Feel free to check the original images for yourself.
https://www.virgintrains.co.uk/about/media-room/#/latest_media
@OwenSmith_MP
My campaign remains on track. Proud to be genuinely standing up for ordinary people.
He really sounds like a winner 'remains on track'?
I've very rarely had to stand on a surface (non-tube) railway service. Though I don't commute into London or any major connurbation by train, where the problem's at its worst.
I believe guards are allowed to let people into First Class if the train is overcrowded, and ISTR (nothing firmer than that, I'm afraid), that some operators allow full-fare paying First Class passengers to claim a partial refund in that particular case.
(Just for tyson......