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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rio’s over and so to Tokyo and beyond
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rio’s over and so to Tokyo and beyond
So, farewell then Rio – or perhaps, goodbye. It’s not been a vintage Games. Some problems, such as the Zika virus, couldn’t have been anticipated or prevented but others – the three-quarter empty stadia, the unsporting crowds, the polluted water, dangerous cycle courses and the impending shambles of the Paralympics – most certainly could.
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Presume only non posh sports allowed in Tokyo
Seem to remember Tokyo as well-organised. Of course there was little colour TV, and Tokyo is 8 hours ahead of us so there wasn’t a lot to watch live. Also think I recall a school acquaintance of mine winning a silver in the sailing.
There was a lot else happening in my life in 1964!
Budapest and Rome too. Budapest would be fun, but very hot midsummer.
I agree with David Herdson about Budapest, though it is worth noting that Hungary has overachieved in the Olympics for its size in the last two Olympics (it was 12th in this year's medal table, ahead of the hosts, and 9th in 2012). Quite apart from the smallness of the country, Hungary does not have a particularly good track record of delivering large infrastructure projects. This is a risk that I can't imagine the IOC wishing to run.
To be honest, I find it hard to see past Paris. It would need to blot its copybook badly not to get it, I would have thought.
Each one does not have to be a bigger and more expensive show that breaks the bank somewhere. It is like extending your house for a party, then wondering what to do with the extra rooms afterwards.
My grandfather ran in the 1932 Los Angeles Olympics in the 100m, 200m and 4x100m. All the European teams went across the Atlantic on the Olympic Ship [with Stanley Baldwin as it happens, who was attending the Ottowa Conference] and then via the Olympic Train to Los Angeles.
Sadly he got crocked falling down a staircase onboard ship so didn't perform at his best. It didn't help that Lord Burghley dropped the baton in the 4x100 so nothing new there. We have a wonderful competitor's medallion at home - just not one of Bronze, Silver or Gold.
LA 1932 is noteworthy in quite a few respects: The first Olympiad with an athletes village [men only - the women stayed at a hotel downtown], the first with photo-finish equipment. And an Olympic Art competition, where each country submitted artworks as part of a medal competition. And a purpose built stadium. Of course, many fewer people competed at that time and it was strictly amateurs only - he had to ask for time off work.
But perhaps the biggest legacy was that the Xth Olympiad in 1932 marked the start of the end of the depression and the start of the economic recovery in the States following the 1920's Stock Crash. History might show that the 2012 Olympics in London marked the end of our recession and, who knows, the successes this time around, negate any remaining negativity about our role in a post Brexit world. The historical precedents are all there.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
http://library.la84.org/6oic/OfficialReports/1932/1932s.pdf
It's a great read.
Answering my own question, given Rio just got the Games, possibly not.
But really, given the amount that they tape-delay anyway, the IOC and Tokyo OCOG should tell them to bugger off.
This might be considered a very optimistic view
Berlin?
It should also be pointed out that although Eastern Europe has not hosted a games as such, Moscow did host the 1980 games
I was going to raise the terrorism/inexplicable lone wolf mental illness point, but I see everyone beat me to it.
Moneybags Tory MSP accused of exploiting parliamentary position to further his business interests
ALEXANDER Burnett lodged five questions in Holyrood raising concerns about the planning process from a rival business for a housing development in his constituency.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/moneybags-tory-msp-accused-exploiting-8679718
If they regard America as one continent I would expect 2024 to go to Paris, if not its a coin toss between Paris and LA... Personally I reckon its Paris in 24, LA in 28 then somewhere in Asia in 32....
Yes, he does suffer from verbal diarrhoea, but dissing an overpaid "celebrity" isn't the worst crime in the world.
Rather that than the Richard Osman treacle you get on Pointless. He's a good comedian, but the sickening sycophancy to anyone vaguely in the celebrity category is nauseating.
Even unknown Z-list celebrities are wonderful and marvellous, and each time one crops up in conversation, he begins to drool.
He takes the piss occasionally out of the contestants, but it seems that the merest hint of fame sends his critical faculties into meltdown.
Bit catch-22 on Paris. If they give it to the French, it's not hard to see multiple attacks happening. If they don't give it to the French, it may well be seen as terrorism scaring the IOC off.
Ditto the USA wont be getting it again.
Clinton 42 .. Trump 46
http://gravismarketing.com/news/current-south-carolina-polling/
Pennsylvania - CEPEX/CBS8
Clinton 36.5 .. Trump 41.9
http://www.projectexecution.consulting/cepexpoll/
Note - First poll by this Canadian company ..
Mr. Root, also, 9/11 was a decade and a half ago. It'd be over two decades in the past by the next (bid for) Olympics. French terrorism was last week (Strasbourg stabbing, not that the media reported it much). There have been multiple major attacks over the last couple of years, unlike the US.
Clinton 44 .. Trump 43
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-north-carolina-polling-2/
The man is the Tory Corbyn, a sleeper agent for the other side.
I hope the European and African members of the IOC can work together and get behind Paris. It is a world city worthy of the Olympics. Security concerns? Then make it the greatest gathering of Special Forces the world has ever seen.
I wonder if Japan is the same? Apparently they have a problem with getting women into the workplace.
Interesting subject, but better value elsewhere.
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, has become the most senior party figure to float the idea of an early election as she cited concerns about rebellious backbenchers.
She said the “usual suspects” on the backbenches could “cause problems” for Mrs May and added there was a clear “temptation” to call an election sooner than 2020.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/21/ruth-davidson-says-early-general-election-is-tempting-and-warns/
The anniversary and infrastructure are a pull. It's culturally strong too.
The USA seems to have had the Olympics quite enough to me. Los Angeles 1984 and Atlanta 1996. Plus Winter games in SLC in 2002.
Lots of FIFA people are nervous about setting foot in the USA
Budapest is still under developed, probably not worth the risk. Rome would be fantastic, if there was any chance the Italians could actually pay for it. LA hosted already in my lifetime, don't see much enthusiasm for going back to the same city twice.
That leaves Paris, which would put on a great show, and the 'century' sentimentality will help with the judges. Big question mark on security though, as others have mentioned. It will be the mother of all targets, how many people will want to turn up hours early to go through half a dozen police checkpoints on their way to watch?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-national-polls-show-the-race-tightening-but-state-polls-dont/
Theresa May undoing more George Osborne policies and abandoning regional mayors. https://t.co/QNPin9i3XO https://t.co/gnA2sI3gvm
A Greater Manchester mayor, but not one for Yorkshire [excepting the odd southern bit that thinks it's in the Midlands...] could lead to people feeling one side of the Pennines is getting more devolution than the other (the continual cancellation of the tram system in Leeds has not endeared central government to the locals. In fact, I think it's the case that the money spent on preparing bids and plans for funding that was meant to come would have actually been enough to build a tram system).
Anyway, I am off for a bit.
Fair to say that the last two weeks haven't been too productive in this household, with the track and field finishing at 6am local time (GMT+4). Tokyo will at least be on mainly during the hours of daylight! LA would run five hours later than Rio, so would be early mornings rather than late nights.
2019 might also be right in the middle of Corbyn's deselection purge of the moderates, having her opponents' shambles in the news running up to an election might help Mrs May with her decision.
If not then perhaps the IOC might like to look outside the box for a European choice - Lisbon, Copenhagen or wait for it .... Dublin ..
Cost of course ?!?!
Or to cheer Remainers .... Brussels ..
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14694454.BBC_criticised_as_new_Great_British_Bake_Off_series_contains_no_Scots/
Lets see -
Scotland has one twelfth of the UK's population.
There are twelve contestants
Last year two came from Scotland.
So, all things being equal, roughly how many should Scotland have this year.....?
So what does she know about rebellious backbenchers ?
And the backbenchers who could cause May problems include Soubry, Perry, Morgan and other Osborne arselickers.
Like every other criteria that points to either Paris or LA with Paris correctly the very strong favourite.
Dennis Skinner on Labour's 1992 defeat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ogt6njXU9Cg
quite prophetic on what Labour's problems would be re the EU and losing touch with working class voters.
Skinner really didn't like the LibDems - "Dr Death, Shirley Poppins, Woy of the Wadicles, Paddy Backdown".
They sent 416 athletes.
I'm just annoyed at this continual plotting and jockeying for position the likes of Ruth Davidson engage in.
If May wants to call a general election she will do so but that will be her decision and not influenced by Davidson's opinions.
It's the cost of building all this for a month's use that puts off many potential bidders. Is there anywhere, other than London and Beijing, which could host an Olympics without major development required in the city?
I stick with what I said in the intro. There will be all sorts of considerations beyond sporting and technical ones - but I think these will still tend towards the comfort of delegates, sentiment and prestige rather than more corrupt factors.
I agree that security is an issue but France can rightly point out that it's just staged the Euro 2016 championships without too much trouble. Whether the security forces were overly distracted by the football to miss the preparations for the Nice truce attack is an open question but that happened the week after Euro2016 ended and low-tech lone-wolf attacks are in any case the hardest to prevent in advance (though in that case, it might have been stopped indirectly had the perpetrator been arrested on other grounds).
China put in a huge effort for Beijing but not so much this time or the last. I suspect that they will want to do much better in Tokyo given local rivalries.
For the UK the number of fourths is encouraging but further progress is going to require a generation of Adam Peaty's because we are pretty close to topped out in our strengths. Oh and a replacement for Mo.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1646498/iain-duncan-smith-says-the-referendum-was-not-a-suggestion-we-have-to-leave-eu-now-and-respect-brexit/
Europe has had:
Barcelona 1992
Athens 2004
London 2012
The USA is surely due it before the EU is again?
The very tough treatment of their athletes really made an impression.
Re the World Cup, precisely. The problem is money but so is the solution. Were the English, French, Italian, German and Spanish Associations to withdraw and ban any player who played in it from being registered with an affiliated club, the financial losses would cripple FIFA. Working round the employment law might be tricky but there ought to be some possible solution along those lines.
1. How committed is the City of Los Angeles to the bid? Really, really wanting it matters.
2. The IOC has a tendency to give the games to countries which 'keep trying'. The UK (between Manchester and London) bid on a lot of Olympics before they got London 2012. That works in Paris' favour.
But I'm more with you than against; I'd reckon LA should be the narrow favourite. 45:40:12;3 would be my probabilities. (And maybe the 3 for Budapest is generous...)
Shows very few swing-state polls in recent days - the last ones showing Trump ahead in BOTH Carolinas.
Weightlifting 15
Wrestling 18
Shooting 15
Judo 14
Rhythmic Gym 18 (phwoar!)
Fencing 10
I count two competitions, all around women individual; and all around women team.
We got two bronze in the shooting, whilst not as great as some other nations it was on the map !
Weightlifiting and wrestling are a couple of seams we could tap.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Brilliant clip from Dennis Skinner in 1992 - a reminder of when Labour had personalities as well as leaders. Watched it after listening to the robotic and incompetent Kezzia Dugdale on the Scottish radio.
It may be that Scots Labour would be better served by keeping Corbyn and ditching this tragically sub standard politician who has never even won a constituency seat.
EDIT I wish there was a Strong Man event in the Olympics - a version of MPent for epic feats of strength. It'd make brilliant TV for those who don't watch the World's Strongest Man competition.