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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nigel Farage: the Comeback, Comeback, Comeback Kid?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,684
edited August 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nigel Farage: the Comeback, Comeback, Comeback Kid?

When Farage quit the UKIP leadership many were speculating that this was not the last we would see him flying the UKIP flag and there’ve been hints that this is the case.
he
In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader if Brexit is not delivered as he would like.

Read the full story here


«13456

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,453
    edited August 2016
    The cult (sic) of Farage

    Interestingly

    UKIP MEP Jonathan Arnott says he is withdrawing from the race to be the party's next leader because the best he could hope for would be second place.

    Mr Arnott, who represents the North East of England, said there was "no prize for a silver medal".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37084410

    I hate to kick a man when he's down, but there is a prize for silver medal, it's the medal
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Second :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    The

    Hardly a first ;)
  • Options
    And is Farage growing a porn star 'tasche?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    What is it about right wing populists and Russia?
    "In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader"
  • Options

    What is it about right wing populists and Russia?
    "In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader"

    I think it is the repressed latent homosexuality that attracts them to Putin.

    I mean, when he rides bare chested on that horse, you can't help but swoon.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Nige probably does need to come back. Though with Woolfe's electoral law transgression and the rather obvious trick of getting himself ruled out on a technicality because he doesn't REALLY want the job then there looks to be no future beyond Nigel. And that is a massive problem for UKIP.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    That tie is a breach of the Geneva Convention.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    What is it about right wing populists and Russia?
    "In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader"

    I think it is the repressed latent homosexuality that attracts them to Putin.

    I mean, when he rides bare chested on that horse, you can't help but swoon.
    Ok, I'll have to take your word for it.
    By the way, it took me some minutes flicking through channels on an hotel TV before I realised that there was something oddly biased about the news channel with a discreet 'RT' in the corner.
  • Options
    MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    Being the leader of UKIP is very much like making love to a beautiful woman
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    MontyHall said:

    Being the leader of UKIP is very much like making love to a beautiful woman

    Have you thrown your hat into the ring yet :) ?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    "In an interview on Russia Today"

    Maybe the moustache is an attempt to go for a full 'Stalin'.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I am bored of Farage. Why can't he just retire and let someone else do crazy.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,069

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    The fourth return was when he came back to Earth in the first place.
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    I thought that tache was a photoshop job, but he's really grown one. That is superb!!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    Are you a new ball or second new ball person?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    MontyHall said:

    Being the leader of UKIP is very much like making love to a beautiful woman

    Possibly the most depressing sentence in the English language.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    tlg86 said:

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    Are you a new ball or second new ball person?
    It's always been "The new ball". The first has become the old ball!
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    I think Nigel’s tash looks rather smart and distinguished, in a Roderick Spode kinda of way…
  • Options

    I thought that tache was a photoshop job, but he's really grown one. That is superb!!

    I hope it gets a bit bushier. A sort of WW1 army officer's job would suit Farage quite well methinks.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Jonathan said:

    I am bored of Farage. Why can't he just retire and let someone else do crazy.

    Hasn't labour taken on that role en-masse?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    Are you a new ball or second new ball person?
    It's always been "The new ball". The first has become the old ball!
    But the old ball was the new ball at the start of the innings.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,069
    Patrick said:

    I thought that tache was a photoshop job, but he's really grown one. That is superb!!

    I hope it gets a bit bushier. A sort of WW1 army officer's job would suit Farage quite well methinks.
    He's clearly going for this look:

    image
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    Patrick said:

    I thought that tache was a photoshop job, but he's really grown one. That is superb!!

    I hope it gets a bit bushier. A sort of WW1 army officer's job would suit Farage quite well methinks.
    He's clearly going for this look:

    image
    I was hoping for more of a General Melchett!
    Mandelbum's tache is thin and wispy and a bit gay if you ask me.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited August 2016
    Martin Baxter: A Labour split helps no-one except the Tories

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/the-numbers-dont-lie-splitting-would-be-catastrophic-for-labour/

    "In almost all the scenarios, the combined Labour parties win fewer seats than they did at the last general election. Only if overall Labour support increases by 20 per cent do they even equal their 2015 performance. And in all cases, the Conservatives remain the largest party in parliament and are almost certainly in government."
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited August 2016
    Writing for the Huffington Post, Robert Kuttner believes that Republican officials have kept leaking the idea that DonaldTrump will quit, and that the most likely replacement is Paul Ryan. He may have a point: Ryan's "A Better Way" could be refashioned quite quickly into a presidential campaign platform.

    Unfortunately he doesn't discuss the other possible replacements, simply saying that "The also-rans in the Republican primaries are all too bloodied and blemished" and that "Ryan stayed above the fray". Is he Ryan's agent or what? Unlike John Kasich and Ted Cruz, Ryan has endorsed Trump. I don't think that rules him out, but still.

    If Trump is going to quit, then the later he does it the more likely it is that his replacement will be Mike Pence. Problems that a replacement will experience in "getting on to the ballots" have been exaggerated.

  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    Are you a new ball or second new ball person?
    It's always been "The new ball". The first has become the old ball!
    Yes, but you can get a third (or second) new ball.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter: A Labour split helps no-one except the Tories

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/the-numbers-dont-lie-splitting-would-be-catastrophic-for-labour/

    "In almost all the scenarios, the combined Labour parties win fewer seats than they did at the last general election. Only if overall Labour support increases by 20 per cent do they even equal their 2015 performance. And in all cases, the Conservatives remain the largest party in parliament and are almost certainly in government."

    I thought JackW's ARSE was Britain's leading site (heh) for the scientific prediction of election results. :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter: A Labour split helps no-one except the Tories

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/the-numbers-dont-lie-splitting-would-be-catastrophic-for-labour/

    "In almost all the scenarios, the combined Labour parties win fewer seats than they did at the last general election. Only if overall Labour support increases by 20 per cent do they even equal their 2015 performance. And in all cases, the Conservatives remain the largest party in parliament and are almost certainly in government."

    Whether the numbers on that are correct or not, it is why no large split will happen, and probably not even a small split. Ridiculous as it may be to pretend they are all of the same mind and direction, and far beyond any talk of broad churches, the one thing they all do seem committed on is Tories are the enemy still, and any split will be seen as helping the Tories.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    MTimT said:

    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.

    What's the transmission grid in the US like? Is it managed at the state or federal level?

    I find it slightly funny that in UK from the 1930s-1950s we moved from small-scale local power generation, with a power station in most towns, often in the centre - to massive power stations outside towns with a countrywide transmission grid.

    Yet we're now moving back to small-scale generation, often local in scope. How the grid will cope is another matter.

    (On a side-issue, Musk's SpaceX made another launch yesterday, and another successful landing, even though it was a high-orbit launch that made the landing much more difficult. I think that's five out of the last six launches with a successful landing).
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Just taken Shadsy's Evens on the Trump winning 21-30 states. DYOR, but I think it's a goody.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    MontyHall said:

    Being the leader of UKIP is very much like making love to a beautiful woman

    It's something most people can only watch rather than achieve in the flesh?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    Are you a new ball or second new ball person?
    It's always been "The new ball". The first has become the old ball!
    Exactly. But it's a third new ball at 160 overs.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Just taken Shadsy's Evens on the Trump winning 21-30 states. DYOR, but I think it's a goody.

    10-11 now. Nevertheless £22 on.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,437

    MontyHall said:

    Being the leader of UKIP is very much like making love to a beautiful woman

    It's something most people can only watch rather than achieve in the flesh?
    It's often over before it starts?
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Nige gets free time on Russia Today because anyone who opposes the EU is Putin's friend.
    Anyone who calls himself a patriot would not appear on the propaganda channel.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Just taken Shadsy's Evens on the Trump winning 21-30 states. DYOR, but I think it's a goody.

    10-11 now. Nevertheless £22 on.
    Yes, I'm on at this price too. Good bet even if the odds are a mite skinny.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Just taken Shadsy's Evens on the Trump winning 21-30 states. DYOR, but I think it's a goody.

    This is basically Trump holding Indiana through to gaining Nevada (Not Wisconsin). 4-5 now.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    And is Farage growing a porn star 'tasche?

    There was a pundit on the telly the other day with the best evvah porn name.

    Phil Kuntz
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    perdix said:

    Nige gets free time on Russia Today because anyone who opposes the EU is Putin's friend.
    Anyone who calls himself a patriot would not appear on the propaganda channel.

    Nigel Farage is not a patriot? Hm.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Pulpstar said:

    Just taken Shadsy's Evens on the Trump winning 21-30 states. DYOR, but I think it's a goody.

    10-11 now. Nevertheless £22 on.
    Yes, I'm on at this price too. Good bet even if the odds are a mite skinny.
    @Shadsy has realised his generousity methinks.

    Into 4-5 now. Will probably end up 4-7 or so.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Some words I hope to see added to the tabloid Brexicon..

    Brexaggeration
    Brexcrement
    Brexclusive
    Brexcitement
    Brexhaustion
    Brexhibition
    Brexhilarating
    Brexpansion
    Brexpense account
    Brexpiry date
    Brexecution
    Brexcellent
    Brexchange rate
    Brexpectations
    Brexpeditionary force
    Brexperience
    Brexpert
    Brextraordinay
    Brextremist
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Some words I hope to see added to the tabloid Brexicon..

    Brexaggeration
    Brexcrement
    Brexclusive
    Brexcitement
    Brexhaustion
    Brexhibition
    Brexhilarating
    Brexpansion
    Brexpense account
    Brexpiry date
    Brexecution
    Brexcellent
    Brexchange rate
    Brexpectations
    Brexpeditionary force
    Brexperience
    Brexpert
    Brextraordinay
    Brextremist

    Brexcruciating?
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited August 2016
    perdix said:

    Nige gets free time on Russia Today because anyone who opposes the EU is Putin's friend.
    Anyone who calls himself a patriot would not appear on the propaganda channel.

    What's the BBC?
    Irregular verb:
    * They "spread propaganda"
    * We "only ever tell the world the facts"
    I'm quite sure Nigel Farage "calls himself a patriot", as doubtless does Garry Kasparov when he appears on the BBC.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wouldn't a fourth spell as leader mean a third return to the post?

    Are you a new ball or second new ball person?
    It's always been "The new ball". The first has become the old ball!
    Exactly. But it's a third new ball at 160 overs.
    Now *that* one I could call the second *new* ball! :D
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337
    Dromedary said:

    Writing for the Huffington Post,

    Can you, or anyone else, give us a quick briefing on the ballot paper issue? There presumably is a moment afterwhich getting onto the ballots in key states is impossible. When is it?
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    MTimT said:

    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.

    What's the transmission grid in the US like? Is it managed at the state or federal level?

    I find it slightly funny that in UK from the 1930s-1950s we moved from small-scale local power generation, with a power station in most towns, often in the centre - to massive power stations outside towns with a countrywide transmission grid.

    Yet we're now moving back to small-scale generation, often local in scope. How the grid will cope is another matter.
    There are three major grids in the US (all privately owned and managed I believe): one each West and East of the Rockies and a third for Texas, because Texas.

    Most places the local grid is owned and run by the local incumbent utility, which are mostly private but sometimes publicly owned at the state or municipal level. Often there's a mixture. In New York State where I live, conEd is the privately owned utility in most of NYC and Westchester County, but the State's Long Island Power Authority covers the rest of Long Island after the old LI Power Co was compulsorily purchased in the 80s or 90s after some catastrophicly pisspoor management. We have a notionally competitive power market in NYS on the same model as the UK, but it's far less developed and almost everyone, including us, sticks with conEd or whoever their incumbent is.

    I understand there are federal mandates to maintain a strategic mix of generation capacity. Most of NY's electricity comes from several nuclear plants plus hydro-electric from the Niagara river and imported from Hydro Quebec, but there are small local fossil fuel generation stations all over the place, including in NYC itself so that there is some local fallback supply for essential usage in the event of a grid failure. Not that seems to work when there have been all-out grid failures in the past.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited August 2016
    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    Some words I hope to see added to the tabloid Brexicon..

    Brexaggeration
    Brexcrement
    Brexclusive
    Brexcitement
    Brexhaustion
    Brexhibition
    Brexhilarating
    Brexpansion
    Brexpense account
    Brexpiry date
    Brexecution
    Brexcellent
    Brexchange rate
    Brexpectations
    Brexpeditionary force
    Brexperience
    Brexpert
    Brextraordinay
    Brextremist

    Brextra time
  • Options

    MontyHall said:

    Being the leader of UKIP is very much like making love to a beautiful woman

    It's something most people can only watch rather than achieve in the flesh?
    It's often over before it starts?
    ...because you can't resist coming back for more...
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    rpjs said:

    MTimT said:

    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.

    What's the transmission grid in the US like? Is it managed at the state or federal level?

    I find it slightly funny that in UK from the 1930s-1950s we moved from small-scale local power generation, with a power station in most towns, often in the centre - to massive power stations outside towns with a countrywide transmission grid.

    Yet we're now moving back to small-scale generation, often local in scope. How the grid will cope is another matter.
    There are three major grids in the US (all privately owned and managed I believe): one each West and East of the Rockies and a third for Texas, because Texas.

    Most places the local grid is owned and run by the local incumbent utility, which are mostly private but sometimes publicly owned at the state or municipal level. Often there's a mixture. In New York State where I live, conEd is the privately owned utility in most of NYC and Westchester County, but the State's Long Island Power Authority covers the rest of Long Island after the old LI Power Co was compulsorily purchased in the 80s or 90s after some catastrophicly pisspoor management. We have a notionally competitive power market in NYS on the same model as the UK, but it's far less developed and almost everyone, including us, sticks with conEd or whoever their incumbent is.

    I understand there are federal mandates to maintain a strategic mix of generation capacity. Most of NY's electricity comes from several nuclear plants plus hydro-electric from the Niagara river and imported from Hydro Quebec, but there are small local fossil fuel generation stations all over the place, including in NYC itself so that there is some local fallback supply for essential usage in the event of a grid failure. Not that seems to work when there have been all-out grid failures in the past.
    Thanks. It sounds a bit of a mess then.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    RobD said:

    Some words I hope to see added to the tabloid Brexicon..

    Brexaggeration
    Brexcrement
    Brexclusive
    Brexcitement
    Brexhaustion
    Brexhibition
    Brexhilarating
    Brexpansion
    Brexpense account
    Brexpiry date
    Brexecution
    Brexcellent
    Brexchange rate
    Brexpectations
    Brexpeditionary force
    Brexperience
    Brexpert
    Brextraordinay
    Brextremist

    Brexcruciating?
    Rather excruciatingly almost all of those have already made it into papers tweets and blogs..
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Dromedary said:

    Writing for the Huffington Post,

    Can you, or anyone else, give us a quick briefing on the ballot paper issue? There presumably is a moment afterwhich getting onto the ballots in key states is impossible. When is it?
    It's complicated, varying by state:

    https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    MTimT said:

    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.

    What's the transmission grid in the US like? Is it managed at the state or federal level?

    I find it slightly funny that in UK from the 1930s-1950s we moved from small-scale local power generation, with a power station in most towns, often in the centre - to massive power stations outside towns with a countrywide transmission grid.

    Yet we're now moving back to small-scale generation, often local in scope. How the grid will cope is another matter.

    (On a side-issue, Musk's SpaceX made another launch yesterday, and another successful landing, even though it was a high-orbit launch that made the landing much more difficult. I think that's five out of the last six launches with a successful landing).
    Such a shame I have lots of work to do, as I know all about US electricity distribution and the ISO system!
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,993
    Farage’s ‘tash is going to get up there with AV as a souce of occasional comment.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,069

    Some words I hope to see added to the tabloid Brexicon..

    Scotch Brexit
    Scrambled Brexit
    Brexecrable
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,069

    Farage’s ‘tash is going to get up there with AV as a souce of occasional comment.

    Alternative Veet?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter: A Labour split helps no-one except the Tories

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/the-numbers-dont-lie-splitting-would-be-catastrophic-for-labour/

    "In almost all the scenarios, the combined Labour parties win fewer seats than they did at the last general election. Only if overall Labour support increases by 20 per cent do they even equal their 2015 performance. And in all cases, the Conservatives remain the largest party in parliament and are almost certainly in government."

    Whether the numbers on that are correct or not, it is why no large split will happen, and probably not even a small split. Ridiculous as it may be to pretend they are all of the same mind and direction, and far beyond any talk of broad churches, the one thing they all do seem committed on is Tories are the enemy still, and any split will be seen as helping the Tories.
    While I agree with Baxter's conclusions that a split produces a joint suicide, I don't quite undersdtand the methodology. When he considers a scenario where a hypothetical New Labour gets 60% of the Labour vote, he thinks that this leads to a roughly 2.5:1 advantage over Old Labour in seats (coupled with the Tories cleaning up). But if the new party consistently gets 60% of the Labour vote, how does he poject the old party getting any seats at all? Is he putting in assumptions about regional variation, or what?

    On your point, under FPTP it's always been true that nearly everyone puts up with things they don't like in the party they support because they think it's better or less bad than the alternative. There has never been any pretense that, say, Ken Clarke and Bill Cash are of a similar mind and direction, when they hardly agree about anything at all, except that they're Not Labour. The position for a centrist Labour MP who sticks with Corbyn will be identical.

    Incidentally, an oddity about the Lasbour MPs telling George Eaton (FPT) that turnout at local meetings is untypical because they're full of keen young Corbyn fans sits oddly with the previous complaint that the new members don't turn up for meetings and only the old stalwarts bother. It might be true, but it's second-hand speculation from biased sources. What I think is happening is that the Smith camp are trying to prevent a sense of inevitability which could depress their vote (the sources fo Don's article in the last thread may be relevant to that too).
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.

    What's the transmission grid in the US like? Is it managed at the state or federal level?

    I find it slightly funny that in UK from the 1930s-1950s we moved from small-scale local power generation, with a power station in most towns, often in the centre - to massive power stations outside towns with a countrywide transmission grid.

    Yet we're now moving back to small-scale generation, often local in scope. How the grid will cope is another matter.

    (On a side-issue, Musk's SpaceX made another launch yesterday, and another successful landing, even though it was a high-orbit launch that made the landing much more difficult. I think that's five out of the last six launches with a successful landing).
    Such a shame I have lots of work to do, as I know all about US electricity distribution and the ISO system!
    ISO system? I guess you don't mean the standards body ... ;)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigel Farage, the chewing gum stuck on the sole of British politics.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337

    Dromedary said:

    Writing for the Huffington Post,

    Can you, or anyone else, give us a quick briefing on the ballot paper issue? There presumably is a moment afterwhich getting onto the ballots in key states is impossible. When is it?
    It's complicated, varying by state:

    https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates
    Thanks! Looks as though it weould be almost impossible to get Trump off the ballot in half the states even if he quit imminently, but the flexibility mentioned might get a new candidate on to the ballot with lots of luck. Some states like Ohio and Florida already look very iffy. The 5-1 Betfair odds don't look appealing.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,993

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Martin Baxter: A Labour split helps no-one except the Tories

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/the-numbers-dont-lie-splitting-would-be-catastrophic-for-labour/

    "In almost all the scenarios, the combined Labour parties win fewer seats than they did at the last general election. Only if overall Labour support increases by 20 per cent do they even equal their 2015 performance. And in all cases, the Conservatives remain the largest party in parliament and are almost certainly in government."

    Whether the numbers on that are correct or not, it is why no large split will happen, and probably not even a small split. Ridiculous as it may be to pretend they are all of the same mind and direction, and far beyond any talk of broad churches, the one thing they all do seem committed on is Tories are the enemy still, and any split will be seen as helping the Tories.
    While I agree party consistently gets 60% of the Labour vote, how does he poject the old party getting any seats at all? Is he putting in assumptions about regional variation, or what?

    On your point, under FPTP it's always been true that nearly everyone puts up with things they don't like in the party they support because they think it's better or less bad than the alternative. There has never been any pretense that, say, Ken Clarke and Bill Cash are of a similar mind and direction, when they hardly agree about anything at all, except that they're Not Labour. The position for a centrist Labour MP who sticks with Corbyn will be identical.

    Incidentally, an oddity about the Lasbour MPs telling George Eaton (FPT) that turnout at local meetings is untypical because they're full of keen young Corbyn fans sits oddly with the previous complaint that the new members don't turn up for meetings and only the old stalwarts bother. It might be true, but it's second-hand speculation from biased sources. What I think is happening is that the Smith camp are trying to prevent a sense of inevitability which could depress their vote (the sources fo Don's article in the last thread may be relevant to that too).

    Not sure the MPs are saying the meetings are full og eager young Corbynites, just that Corbyn supporters are more likely to turn up. And, of course, going to a meeting to vote for JC is not the same as attending normal meetings, knocking on doors, manning stands etc.

    However, I agree that Don and the MPs are whistling in the wind. The NEC CLP vote is the best indicator there is and that points to a clear Corbyn win.

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Brexist.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2016
    ''The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning. ''

    I wonder if an organised boycott by clean nations is far away. Phelps & co were also very unhappy, apparently.
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    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.
    Team GB had 7 x 4th in the pool....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    Those words have been used too many times this week unfortunately. The IOC need to grow a pair and kick them all out for good.

    But young Sophie Hitchon just took the bronze at the death :)
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    chestnut said:

    Brexist.

    God that's good.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Thanks! Looks as though it weould be almost impossible to get Trump off the ballot in half the states even if he quit imminently, but the flexibility mentioned might get a new candidate on to the ballot with lots of luck. Some states like Ohio and Florida already look very iffy. The 5-1 Betfair odds don't look appealing.

    Yes, it's not a realistic option for the GOP.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    fpt @ taffy

    Presumably the latter [better battery storage] brings solar more into the energy mix. But there is still the issue of efficient transport of solar - the best sources are not particularly close to the bigger conurbations.

    In the US, Musk, through Solar City, is trying to really push the house-top solar market.

    What's the transmission grid in the US like? Is it managed at the state or federal level?

    I find it slightly funny that in UK from the 1930s-1950s we moved from small-scale local power generation, with a power station in most towns, often in the centre - to massive power stations outside towns with a countrywide transmission grid.

    Yet we're now moving back to small-scale generation, often local in scope. How the grid will cope is another matter.

    (On a side-issue, Musk's SpaceX made another launch yesterday, and another successful landing, even though it was a high-orbit launch that made the landing much more difficult. I think that's five out of the last six launches with a successful landing).
    Such a shame I have lots of work to do, as I know all about US electricity distribution and the ISO system!
    ISO system? I guess you don't mean the standards body ... ;)
    Always a headache deciding which ISO to use ;)

    Can't believe I missed a Spacex landing! Mind you there was alot going on in the world yesterday.
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    A village mayor in Corsica has banned full-body swimsuits known as "burkinis" after a beach brawl between families of North African descent and local youths.

    Witnesses say hatchets and harpoons were used in the Sisco beach brawl.
    The five injured on Saturday were later discharged from hospital, but tensions are simmering in the area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37082637
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    Those words have been used too many times this week unfortunately. The IOC need to grow a pair and kick them all out for good.

    But young Sophie Hitchon just took the bronze at the death :)
    Possibly the single most pleasing throw of these games!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337



    Not sure the MPs are saying the meetings are full og eager young Corbynites, just that Corbyn supporters are more likely to turn up. And, of course, going to a meeting to vote for JC is not the same as attending normal meetings, knocking on doors, manning stands etc.

    However, I agree that Don and the MPs are whistling in the wind. The NEC CLP vote is the best indicator there is and that points to a clear Corbyn win.

    Just to be contrary :), a cautionary note on that. The NEC vote was of all members, including the 100K who joined recently. Perhaps that affected the result, who knows?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    A village mayor in Corsica has banned full-body swimsuits known as "burkinis" after a beach brawl between families of North African descent and local youths.

    Witnesses say hatchets and harpoons were used in the Sisco beach brawl.
    The five injured on Saturday were later discharged from hospital, but tensions are simmering in the area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37082637

    A village mayor in Corsica has banned full-body swimsuits known as "burkinis" after a beach brawl between families of North African descent and local youths.

    Witnesses say hatchets and harpoons were used in the Sisco beach brawl.
    The five injured on Saturday were later discharged from hospital, but tensions are simmering in the area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37082637

    "We need to protect our liberal values"

    OK good how?

    "By controlling what people wear".
    *facepalm*.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.

    The answer is screamingly obvious - anyone with a drugs ban can compete. Their times will be recorded. But they are not eligible for the medals. You have two lists - the complete field, and the clean medals list. It would stop drugs cheats overnight if they could never get on a podium for the rest of their lives.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Princeton Election Consortium - Nowcast EV

    Clinton 340 .. Trump 198

    http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,069

    A village mayor in Corsica has banned full-body swimsuits known as "burkinis" after a beach brawl between families of North African descent and local youths.

    Witnesses say hatchets and harpoons were used in the Sisco beach brawl.
    The five injured on Saturday were later discharged from hospital, but tensions are simmering in the area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37082637

    The beach pictured doesn't look ideal for bikinis anyway.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Some words I hope to see added to the tabloid Brexicon..

    Brexaggeration
    Brexcrement
    Brexclusive
    Brexcitement
    Brexhaustion
    Brexhibition
    Brexhilarating
    Brexpansion
    Brexpense account
    Brexpiry date
    Brexecution
    Brexcellent
    Brexchange rate
    Brexpectations
    Brexpeditionary force
    Brexperience
    Brexpert
    Brextraordinay
    Brextremist

    Brextra time
    Remoaners
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    nunu said:

    A village mayor in Corsica has banned full-body swimsuits known as "burkinis" after a beach brawl between families of North African descent and local youths.

    Witnesses say hatchets and harpoons were used in the Sisco beach brawl.
    The five injured on Saturday were later discharged from hospital, but tensions are simmering in the area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37082637

    A village mayor in Corsica has banned full-body swimsuits known as "burkinis" after a beach brawl between families of North African descent and local youths.

    Witnesses say hatchets and harpoons were used in the Sisco beach brawl.
    The five injured on Saturday were later discharged from hospital, but tensions are simmering in the area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37082637

    "We need to protect our liberal values"

    OK good how?

    "By controlling what people wear".
    *facepalm*.
    Spectacularly stupid idea. Probably one of the best examples of displacement activity I've seen.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2016
    JackW said:

    Princeton Election Consortium - Nowcast EV

    Clinton 340 .. Trump 198

    http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/

    Worth pointing out that that is the mean of their probability distribution, not their estimate of the most likely single outcome (which is 341, with the second most likely at 347, reading off the histogram).
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    The British lad in the boxing has got a name to live up to....Muhammad Ali
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited August 2016

    JackW said:

    Princeton Election Consortium - Nowcast EV

    Clinton 340 .. Trump 198

    http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/

    Worth pointing out that that is the mean of their probability distribution, not their estimate of the most likely single outcome (which is 341, with the second most likely at 347, reading off the histogram).
    Interesting how different they look from the histograms on 538.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    The British lad in the boxing has got a name to live up to....Muhammad Ali

    I have to say, if that were my name I wouldn't take up boxing. Nor, were I named Bobby More, would I go anywhere near a competitive football field.

    Talk about a target on your back... everyone in the competition will want to be able to say that they beat Muhammad Ali!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    Pulpstar said:

    Always a headache deciding which ISO to use ;)

    Can't believe I missed a Spacex landing! Mind you there was alot going on in the world yesterday.

    I guess RCS wasn't referring to the International Socialist Organisation!

    SpaceX is doing quite amazing things - although I still reserve judgement until they've a few successful reflights under their belt. They're currently doing multiple full refirings of the landed stage that suffered the most stress during landing, before launching one or two previously-landed stages this year.

    That's the moment when they might change the space business for good.

    As an aside, I've been doing some further reading up on SpaceX. Even when throttled down as far as it can go, one Merlin engine produces more thrust than the weight of the landing stage. For this reason, they fire it only for a very short period immediately before landing to stop its momentum, and then let it drop the last distance (the landing legs have deformable sections to take the worst of the impact).

    Compare to Blue Origin, whose engines can be throttled even lower, allowing it to hover.

    I makes the landings even more amazing.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Princeton Election Consortium - Nowcast EV

    Clinton 340 .. Trump 198

    http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/

    Worth pointing out that that is the mean of their probability distribution, not their estimate of the most likely single outcome (which is 341, with the second most likely at 347, reading off the histogram).
    Interesting how different they look from the histograms on 538.
    Yes. The 538 ones look more sensible to me, but it's a bit early to take either of them too literally.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.

    The answer is screamingly obvious - anyone with a drugs ban can compete. Their times will be recorded. But they are not eligible for the medals. You have two lists - the complete field, and the clean medals list. It would stop drugs cheats overnight if they could never get on a podium for the rest of their lives.
    I'd let the cheats have their own competition - after the Paralympics when no-ones there to watch it and the media have all packed up. Why should they get any publicity.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited August 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.

    The answer is screamingly obvious - anyone with a drugs ban can compete. Their times will be recorded. But they are not eligible for the medals. You have two lists - the complete field, and the clean medals list. It would stop drugs cheats overnight if they could never get on a podium for the rest of their lives.
    I'd let the cheats have their own competition - after the Paralympics when no-ones there to watch it and the media have all packed up. Why should they get any publicity.
    "when no-ones there to watch it"....how would we know the difference from the proper Olympics in Rio?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    GB's nine different sports with medals currently leads all countries (USA 8, China 7, France 6). Plus sailing will make it 10 tomorrow.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''SpaceX is doing quite amazing things - although I still reserve judgement until they've a few successful reflights under their belt. ''

    If Bond gets the Sabre engine right, SpaceX could have spent a great deal of money for nothing.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    edited August 2016
    nunu said:


    "We need to protect our liberal values"

    OK good how?

    "By controlling what people wear".
    *facepalm*.


    Maajid Nawaz gets this issue right.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.

    The answer is screamingly obvious - anyone with a drugs ban can compete. Their times will be recorded. But they are not eligible for the medals. You have two lists - the complete field, and the clean medals list. It would stop drugs cheats overnight if they could never get on a podium for the rest of their lives.
    I'd let the cheats have their own competition - after the Paralympics when no-ones there to watch it and the media have all packed up. Why should they get any publicity.
    "when no-ones there to watch it"....how would we know the difference from the proper Olympics in Rio?
    The crowd did eventually show up last night to watch the 100m and the 400m world record. After 10 days of no-one being there.

    Probably only 20% full for the morning Athletics session now though. They really need to go and find some school kids from somewhere.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    taffys said:

    ''SpaceX is doing quite amazing things - although I still reserve judgement until they've a few successful reflights under their belt. ''

    If Bond gets the Sabre engine right, SpaceX could have spent a great deal of money for nothing.

    Do you know what's so revolutionary about the SpaceX engine?
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, another world record in the stadium, Poland's Anita Wlodarczyk throwing the hammer over 82 metres!

    British lass in fourth, behind a drugs cheat. That's got to rankle....
    The swimming coach was grumbling about the same thing this morning.

    The answer is screamingly obvious - anyone with a drugs ban can compete. Their times will be recorded. But they are not eligible for the medals. You have two lists - the complete field, and the clean medals list. It would stop drugs cheats overnight if they could never get on a podium for the rest of their lives.
    I'd let the cheats have their own competition - after the Paralympics when no-ones there to watch it and the media have all packed up. Why should they get any publicity.
    "when no-ones there to watch it"....how would we know the difference from the proper Olympics in Rio?
    The crowd did eventually show up last night to watch the 100m and the 400m world record. After 10 days of no-one being there.

    Probably only 20% full for the morning Athletics session now though. They really need to go and find some school kids from somewhere.
    After yesterdays idiot on the golf course, somebody tried to join in the long distance drowning in polluted water race this afternoon.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,310
    edited August 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:


    "We need to protect our liberal values"

    OK good how?

    "By controlling what people wear".
    *facepalm*.

    Maajid Nawaz gets this issue right.
    He gets most thing right, 'cepting his choice of political party to stand for, but in the scheme of things he gets a pass on that also.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    taffys said:

    ''SpaceX is doing quite amazing things - although I still reserve judgement until they've a few successful reflights under their belt. ''

    If Bond gets the Sabre engine right, SpaceX could have spent a great deal of money for nothing.

    Indeed, but SpaceX are much further down the road. I'd argue that SpaceX have a good chance of reducing launch costs to LEO by half from current costs from competitors, and perhaps down as low as 25% within the next five years.

    Sabre won't even be flight-tested for many years.

    But Sabre's worth doing, as it may be a game changer if it works. And even if it does not, the tech and knowledge developed may well be useful elsewhere.
This discussion has been closed.