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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Owen Smith team says it has private LAB leadership poll with Corbyn below 50%
This is the sort of development that drives me crazy. If Smith really does have private poll with those figures then publish it. This would show that Corbyn is vulnerable.
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Edit: I see the comedy that is Labour's self-destruction is continuing apace.
Edit: Fourth like Arsenal.
Tissue_Price said:
Important polling findings here:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9om1hl3w4s/InternalResults_160809_SharkChild.pdf
What type of shark? Greenland Shark generally potters around at 0.3 metres per second. The Shortfin Mako can chase prey at bursts of over 26 metres per second.
It's important which shark the interviewed were considering, because the 50m freestyle world record is 0.4648 metres per second, some 54.9% faster than a Greenland shark, for any of the interviewees who bothered to use Google....
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/748038353027796994
35% - Don't know if I get a vote because I'm a £3er, but if I do, I am voting Corbyn
16% - Owen
JonesSmithI doubt it will be anything like a 3:1 advantage but I could well see something like 48-28 with 24% DK.
I'm thinking about 20% atm.
But the party is under continued metaphysical threat from the rise of Jezbollah, and the purge after he wins again will be terminal for party unity.
Smith will not win the election to lead the Labour Party. But don't be surprised to find him Leader of the Opposition by Christmas
To 16% ?
The GMB - only union to ballot all its members on who it should support in the Labour leadership - has voted for Owen Smith, the PA reports.
[edited update] GMB has 631K members. Full results of internal union ballot revealed later this afternoon.
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMensch
Labour in 2015 only selected women MPs on AWS. Anytime a man was up for selection, the women candidates lost. Think on that.
F1: Haryanto, who has exceeded expectations, is replaced by Esteban Ocon. Not unsurprising, it must be said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37033654
Or: Smith - 99%, Corbyn - 1%
Seriously, can we afford any cut, even back to 17.5%?
It was always clear that this election was going to feature a huge dose of macho crap on the Republican side, and as Germaine Greer says, never underestimate that stuff.
If Trump survives the next few days, he's going to appear in the debates and do well in them, I reckon.
Have you read Robert Cialdini's book Influence? It's required reading in the field. It's up there with Ogilvy on Advertising.
Yes there will be a split. But as I said it won't be the creation of SDP2 or a new party - it will be the partitioning of the Labour Party and the "splitters" own most of the MPs, MEPs, CLPs, Officials/buildings and now a decent chunk of the union movement. We aren't leaving this party.
The issue is that, while it's getting talked about a lot, cutting VAT is a pretty stupid priority. It fails the two main tests
1) tax cuts deliver less growth than infrastructure spending, because people are more likely to squirrel them away so the velocity of the money is lower, and
2) insofar as cutting VAT increases anything, it helps consumers rather than producers, so more of our stimulus benefits Germany, China, and so on, and less of it benefits Britain.
Last year Team Burnham published a private poll (obviously fake) showing him winning the leadership.
So fake, non-existing favourable polls leaked by campaigns do often happen, and are an indicator of desperation.
Here's my contribution...
Take a look at the medical report that Trump publishes on his website.
Dated 4 Dec 2015, it is signed by Harold Bornstein, who claims to have been Trump's personal physician since 1980. Headed "To Whom My Concern" (sic), it states
"Mr Trump has had a recent complete medical examination that showed only positive results. Actually, his blood pressure, 110/65, and laboratory test results were astonishingly excellent. (...) If elected, Mr Trump, I can state unequivocally, will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency." (emphasis added)
For the following reasons, those words do not sound to me as though they were written by a medic, even if a medic has signed his name to them.
a) Results of medical examinations are usually called "positive" if something problematic is found. If a medic writing a report wishes to say that nothing untoward was found and that a person's health is in good shape, they would be more likely to use the word "favourable".
b) "Astonishingly excellent" does not seem like medical language at all.
c) No medic today can seriously state that anybody would be the "healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency".
But a man comes to mind who frequently uses hyperbolic and superlative language to describe Donald Trump: Donald Trump himself.
I noted the sentence beginning "Actually, his blood pressure". Using a comma after the word "Actually" in that context is an example of a poor writing style. But exactly this ugly usage has appeared many times in Donald Trump's tweets.
You can verify that by running this search.
Examples include
"Actually, she has done poorly with such men!" (2 May 2016)
"Actually, I doubt it!" (26 Jan 2016)
"actually, you always knew!" (27 Jun 2015)
"Actually, if I run, I'll win." (28 Jan 2015)
"so boring now that actually, I’m glad I didn’t (...)" (13 Oct 2014)
"Actually, they will take over Iraq and all of their oil." (14 Jun 2014)
"Actually, I don't think so." (16 May 2014)
"Actually, I'm easily #1!" (4 Mar 2014)
"Actually, I like you!" (19 Feb 2014)
"Actually, she has got no talent at all-ZERO!" (13 Jul 2013)
"Actually, I agree with that" (29 Jun 2013)
Clinton 84.7 .. Trump 15.3 - Polls Only
Clinton 74.9 .. Trump 25.1 - Polls Plus
Clinton 86.3 .. Trump 13.7 - Nowcast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
If that is correct, then how can the CLPs be in the 'moderate' camp when the vast majority of the members aren't? Surely the members can just vote out the old guard and do as they want?
David Robinson,
Jasper Johnson's write-up in the Guardian.
Writing your own medical report and getting a medic to sign it...hmm...
I don't think it gives us much insight into how the Labour members will vote.
@rosschawkins: Union chief Tim Roache: GMB members cannot afford for Labour to be talking to itself in a bubble for the next five years
So all this "we'll deselect MPs" nonsense. No you won't. Because you won't turn up to meetings and if we thought you would we have as many sane members who turn out rarely who we could muster for a vote if required.
Given the very low turnout in their poll and the fact that they cannot actually vote as a bloc, then it really doesn't give us any idea as to how those GMB members who can actually vote will cast their ballots.
If this and his 'private polling' is the best Smith can manage, things are bad in his camp.
Sorry just catching up. Re:Tradesmen's earnings versus the graduate premium, unless one is academically very gifted (i.e. about 10% f the young people university would seem a very bad deal compared to taking up a skilled trade).
I have just had the final bill from the chap who ripped out the old and put in a new bathroom - £4,220 for two week's work, that is labour only, materials plus, tiles, fittings etc were in addition. How many people, graduates or otherwise, earn £2,000 a week? The bloke concerned is a graduate and used to work installing and maintaining flight simulators for CAe, he switched to a job that earns him more and allows him to spend more time at home with wife and family. He doesn't advertise, but is now booked solid until mid-January 2017.
The fellow I found, after months of searching, to repoint one corner of the house (five days work at £300 a day) has now pulled out, better money on offer elsewhere. The qualified plumber we had in to re-jig the hot water system prior to the new bathroom, £400 a day. Electricians cost about the same is you can get one (fellow at the pub runs a spark's business, and is run off his feet, cannot recruit enough qualified people and, get this, can't find youngsters to take on as apprentices).
Graduate premium, my bottom. Ok, a sparks is a sparks, a plumber a plumber and there is no career ladder to climb. But at 2 grand a week who would worry.
If you can get 10% then 15% is 10% + half 10% = 5% and 17.5% was just half of the 5% added on
Easy to work out & add up.
Which is what the actually did in that sentence.
* Joke, I haven't backed him, because ToF going to bugger even the most drugged up superhuman, let alone Froome.
Why didn't they go with Wiggins? he's the defending champ.
Clinton 48.5 .. Trump 45
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/10/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-stabilizes-standing-for-a-second-consecutive-day/8001470837116/?spt=hs&or=tn_us
Since I moved back to the west country 15 years ago I reckon I pay on average about half for tradesmen that I used to in the home counties (roughly adjusting for inflation). Usually better work as well.
I wasn't meaning to argue correctness. That Trump's usage is ugly is my opinion. That it's dismissive and haughty is more objective, because to put a comma after "actually" in such contexts makes the reader linger on it, and thereby emphasises it, and why?
"When an introductory adverbial element seems to modify the entire sentence and not just the verb or some single element in the rest of the sentence, put a comma after it." - http://grammar.ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/commas_intro.htm
Corbyn won 58% of affiliated supporters last time. GMB members have backed Smith by 60-40.
A judge stunned a courtroom by using the C-word as she jailed a racist thug.
Vile John Hennigan, 50, was being sentenced by Judge Patricia Lynch QC when he told her she was "a bit of a c***"
But, taking no prisoners, the judge immediately retorted: "You are a bit of a c*** yourself. Being offensive to me doesn't help."
Hennigan shouted back: "Go f*** yourself."
"You too," replied the judge.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/judge-tells-man-youre-bit-8600651#ICID=sharebar_twitter