'An MP who merely stops supporting attempts to undermine Corbyn is likely to have a reasonably easy run to reselection, and a fair chance at selection in new seats where a large part comes from an existing seat. The left feels they’re winning, and are in general not in vengeful mood.'
That would be Momentum's gentler kind of politics.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
There is a very real possibility of Corbyn destroying the Labour Party entirely. If he remains tin-eared to the concerns of the northern working class (and why shouldn't he as he is to everything else?) then Labour may be destroyed there as it has in Scotland. Wales is up for grabs too based on the Brexit result.
Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else.
Considering all of the above, if there was a possibility of joining a centre-left, modern party I would do it in a heart-beat. The LibDems are a poisoned and decimated brand after naively cooperating with the Tories so they won't do, but if there was a genuine moderate left-wing alternative I would resign my membership and join it immediately.
There is no party for my moderate, sensible left-wing politics currently. I believe in a welfare safety-net worth its name, and that it is shameful that we have homelessness in one of the richest countries in the world. I want a cooperative attitude to Europe. I would also like far greater regulation of Corporate pay with a German model of Union representation on company boards. The Conservative Party doesn't care about poverty. It claims to, but actions speak far louder than words.
This country is crying out for an alternative to permanent right-wing politics. I only hope some of the Parliamentary Labour Party have the guts to try for it.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Eventually, that sensible party will emerge, but it won't be led by Corbyn.
The Rorschach test revealing the few here who really are Trump supporters, not just reporting stuff. I'd given them the benefit of the doubt but wow, they are really here.
Maybe they are just Putin stooges, people are saying that. I don't know.....
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Considering all of the above, if there was a possibility of joining a centre-left, modern party I would do it in a heart-beat. The LibDems are a poisoned and decimated brand after naively cooperating with the Tories so they won't do, but if there was a genuine moderate left-wing alternative I would resign my membership and join it immediately.
There is no party for my moderate, sensible left-wing politics currently. I believe in a welfare safety-net worth its name, and that it is shameful that we have homelessness in one of the richest countries in the world. I want a cooperative attitude to Europe. I would also like far greater regulation of Corporate pay with a German model of Union representation on company boards. The Conservative Party doesn't care about poverty. It claims to, but actions speak far louder than words.
This country is crying out for an alternative to permanent right-wing politics. I only hope some of the Parliamentary Labour Party have the guts to try for it.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Yes! Completely and utterly. Particularly this:
"Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else."
Unfortunately, too many are lost in the echo chamber of social media where they are just talking to one another, rather than swing voters. Should they encounter a swing voter, who expresses any doubts about Corbyn's suitability as a potential PM, they seem to be telling them to 'vote Tory' as a tactic.
NPXMP would do well to look far more closely at what has happened to Labour here in Scotland. They have no divine right to exist as one of the two main parties, and if voters decide they're out of touch, extinction or irrelevance is a real possibility.
I've been suggesting to Labour activists that boasting of knowing zero Tories is not a cause for celebration, but shame. It's going down as well as you might expect.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
There is a very real possibility of Corbyn destroying the Labour Party entirely. If he remains tin-eared to the concerns of the northern working class (and why shouldn't he as he is to everything else?) then Labour may be destroyed there as it has in Scotland. Wales is up for grabs too based on the Brexit result.
Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else.
Considering all of the above, if there was a possibility of joining a centre-left, modern party I would do it in a heart-beat. The LibDems are a poisoned and decimated brand after naively cooperating with the Tories so they won't do, but if there was a genuine moderate left-wing alternative I would resign my membership and join it immediately.
There is no party for my moderate, sensible left-wing politics currently. I believe in a welfare safety-net worth its name, and that it is shameful that we have homelessness in one of the richest countries in the world. I want a cooperative attitude to Europe. I would also like far greater regulation of Corporate pay with a German model of Union representation on company boards. The Conservative Party doesn't care about poverty. It claims to, but actions speak far louder than words.
This country is crying out for an alternative to permanent right-wing politics. I only hope some of the Parliamentary Labour Party have the guts to try for it.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
There is a very real possibility of Corbyn destroying the Labour Party entirely. If he remains tin-eared to the concerns of the northern working class (and why shouldn't he as he is to everything else?) then Labour may be destroyed there as it has in Scotland. Wales is up for grabs too based on the Brexit result.
Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else.
Considering all of the above, if there was a possibility of joining a centre-left, modern party I would do it in a heart-beat. The LibDems are a poisoned and decimated brand after naively cooperating with the Tories so they won't do, but if there was a genuine moderate left-wing alternative I would resign my membership and join it immediately.
There is no party for my moderate, sensible left-wing politics currently. I believe in a welfare safety-net worth its name, and that it is shameful that we have homelessness in one of the richest countries in the world. I want a cooperative attitude to Europe. I would also like far greater regulation of Corporate pay with a German model of Union representation on company boards. The Conservative Party doesn't care about poverty. It claims to, but actions speak far louder than words.
This country is crying out for an alternative to permanent right-wing politics. I only hope some of the Parliamentary Labour Party have the guts to try for it.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Hillary presently has a national poll lead of 7.5% according to RCP, so one of those Pennsylvania polls is actually slightly below her national poll lead. If the race nationally starts to tighten again, especially after the debates, then Pennsylvania comes into play again too
Including third parties Quinnipiac has Florida tied Trump 43% Clinton 43% Johnosn 7% Stein 3%, Ohio has a 2% Clinton lead Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 8% Stein 3%, Pennsylvania a 9% Clinton lead Clinton 48% Trump 39% Johnson 7% Stein 3%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead
I think it's over now. This was the one place he hadn't yet gone and it will dominate the news for weeks now. There is a small minority of unbalanced, angry people in the US but nowhere near enough to elect one of their own.
he didn't make it clear whether he wanted liberal high court judges or Clinton shot, I suppose that was his attempt at wriggle room.
The problem is that he didn't go there, the statement quoted was of such generic substance that the title is misleading:
" "If she gets to pick her judges," Trump said, "nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is." "
Over here Trump would have successfully sued TPM for libel.
"Second amendment solutions" is a well worn euphemism.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
True. The Trump Collapse is of different magnitudes in different states.
From almost nothing in Nevada, to catastrophic in Pennsylvania.
But why in Pennsylvania, Georgia, N.H, Virginia and Missouri and not in Nevada, Arizona, Florida, N.C and Ohio ?
My guess is educated women and african americans, two groups that he has gone sharply down. With african americans he gets just 1% consistently from poll to poll.
He has to correct it but from a distance first, if he tries it in person he might get lynched.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Hillary presently has a national poll lead of 7.5% according to RCP, so one of those Pennsylvania polls is actually slightly below her national poll lead. If the race nationally starts to tighten again, especially after the debates, then Pennsylvania comes into play again too
Including third parties Quinnipiac has Florida tied Trump 43% Clinton 43% Johnosn 7% Stein 3%, Ohio has a 2% Clinton lead Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 8% Stein 3%, Pennsylvania a 9% Clinton lead Clinton 48% Trump 39% Johnson 7% Stein 3%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead
You can't just pick one poll and compare it o her national average. That's like picking one slice from a hand picked cherry.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
I think it's over now. This was the one place he hadn't yet gone and it will dominate the news for weeks now. There is a small minority of unbalanced, angry people in the US but nowhere near enough to elect one of their own.
He didn't make it clear whether he wanted liberal high court judges or Clinton shot, I suppose that was his attempt at wriggle room.
He did not suggest that, he just suggested they used the 2nd amendment to defend their rights if necessary and most of his supporters are gun owners
I think he suggested to them that they should vote for him.
But it's just a generic quote, it works as a Rorschach test.
An equivocal quote of its type is dangerous nevertheless as those who see bad things in the inkblots can also carry out those things.
A friend on facebook just posted about Corbyn (big supporter that he is) and it included the winning comment; "the obvious support Corbyn has from the public"
I just don't have the heart to post any polls, or election results to him. Poor lad.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But who will this leader be? Corbyn didn't only win because of Harman's maladroit welfare policy, or the visceral need of certain people on Labour's left to feel moral superiority. He was helped by the fact that two of the candidates were genuinely bad - Burnham and Kendall - and the one who might have been of some use was so complacent she scarcely bothered to campaign.
If Cooper survives deselection and boundary changes she may have a chance. But otherwise - Stella Creasy? Sunk without trace. Chuka Umanna? Nah, forget it, empty suit. Mary Creagh? Will almost certainly lose Wakefield and even if she held on makes Kendall look like May. Any given Corbynite, including the entire current shadow cabinet? After 2020 they will be as popular as scabies and about as useful.
It seems to me entirely possible that somebody not even in Parliament yet will replace Corbyn, because everyone who is in Parliament will be tainted by this disaster. Ed Balls might still be worth a punt at 100/1 or more, but another possibility to keep an eye on could be Richard Corbitt if he was parachuted into a safe seat somewhere.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
With IDS, it was the quiet man turning up the volume. No biggie; the Tories survived.
With Corbyn, it's the crazy man turning up the voltage. Labour will be electrocuted.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead, tieing the EC at 269 states each and a GOP House would then most probably award him the presidency
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But who will this leader be? Corbyn didn't only win because of Harman's maladroit welfare policy, or the visceral need of certain people on Labour's left to feel moral superiority. He was helped by the fact that two of the candidates were genuinely bad - Burnham and Kendall - and the one who might have been of some use was so complacent she scarcely bothered to campaign.
If Cooper survives deselection and boundary changes she may have a chance. But otherwise - Stella Creasy? Sunk without trace. Chuka Umanna? Nah, forget it, empty suit. Mary Creagh? Will almost certainly lose Wakefield and even if she held on makes Kendall look like May. Any given Corbynite, including the entire current shadow cabinet? After 2020 they will be as popular as scabies and about as useful.
It seems to me entirely possible that somebody not even in Parliament yet will replace Corbyn, because everyone who is in Parliament will be tainted by this disaster. Ed Balls might still be worth a punt at 100/1 or more, but another possibility to keep an eye on could be Richard Corbitt if he was parachuted into a safe seat somewhere.
Lisa Nandy, I suspect. She's on the left, but sees Labour as a coalition.
'An MP who merely stops supporting attempts to undermine Corbyn is likely to have a reasonably easy run to reselection, and a fair chance at selection in new seats where a large part comes from an existing seat. The left feels they’re winning, and are in general not in vengeful mood.'
That would be Momentum's gentler kind of politics.
They'll go back to bricking Tory MP offices (like they did with McVey) instead of Labour MP's.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Hillary presently has a national poll lead of 7.5% according to RCP, so one of those Pennsylvania polls is actually slightly below her national poll lead. If the race nationally starts to tighten again, especially after the debates, then Pennsylvania comes into play again too
Including third parties Quinnipiac has Florida tied Trump 43% Clinton 43% Johnosn 7% Stein 3%, Ohio has a 2% Clinton lead Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 8% Stein 3%, Pennsylvania a 9% Clinton lead Clinton 48% Trump 39% Johnson 7% Stein 3%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead
You can't just pick one poll and compare it o her national average. That's like picking one slice from a hand picked cherry.
You can to an extent, for Trump to win he needs to win all the Romney states and Florida and Ohio as a given and then add Pennsylvania or NH, Iowa and Nevada. If the race tightens nationally those will be the key states to watch
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
If the leader had behaved like Corbyn, I think Conservative members would be whistling and cheering them on, the way so many did with a certain Geoffrey Howe and his famous conflict of loyalty. It should be noted that even in her last years as PM when she was a shadow of her former self, Thatcher would still never have behaved so inconsiderately, deceitfully or rudely to any MP, never mind senior spokesman, as Corbyn has repeatedly to all his former shadow cabinet colleagues.
I think it's over now. This was the one place he hadn't yet gone and it will dominate the news for weeks now. There is a small minority of unbalanced, angry people in the US but nowhere near enough to elect one of their own.
He didn't make it clear whether he wanted liberal high court judges or Clinton shot, I suppose that was his attempt at wriggle room.
He did not suggest that, he just suggested they used the 2nd amendment to defend their rights if necessary and most of his supporters are gun owners
I think he suggested to them that they should vote for him.
But it's just a generic quote, it works as a Rorschach test.
An equivocal quote of its type is dangerous nevertheless as those who see bad things in the inkblots can also carry out those things.
The writer of Catcher in the Rye was not responsible for the death of John Lennon.
That's why generic quotes may work as a Rorschach test, for the subjects natural biases or mental stability.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But who will this leader be? Corbyn didn't only win because of Harman's maladroit welfare policy, or the visceral need of certain people on Labour's left to feel moral superiority. He was helped by the fact that two of the candidates were genuinely bad - Burnham and Kendall - and the one who might have been of some use was so complacent she scarcely bothered to campaign.
If Cooper survives deselection and boundary changes she may have a chance. But otherwise - Stella Creasy? Sunk without trace. Chuka Umanna? Nah, forget it, empty suit. Mary Creagh? Will almost certainly lose Wakefield and even if she held on makes Kendall look like May. Any given Corbynite, including the entire current shadow cabinet? After 2020 they will be as popular as scabies and about as useful.
It seems to me entirely possible that somebody not even in Parliament yet will replace Corbyn, because everyone who is in Parliament will be tainted by this disaster. Ed Balls might still be worth a punt at 100/1 or more, but another possibility to keep an eye on could be Richard Corbitt if he was parachuted into a safe seat somewhere.
Either Corbyn loses in 2020 and is replaced by someone electable (certainly not Balls) maybe Umunna, or Corbyn is re-elected and Labour splits.There is now no real alternative for the party
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
t.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Yes! Completely and utterly. Particularly this:
"Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else."
Unfortunately, too many are lost in the echo chamber of social media where they are just talking to one another, rather than swing voters. Should they encounter a swing voter, who expresses any doubts about Corbyn's suitability as a potential PM, they seem to be telling them to 'vote Tory' as a tactic.
NPXMP would do well to look far more closely at what has happened to Labour here in Scotland. They have no divine right to exist as one of the two main parties, and if voters decide they're out of touch, extinction or irrelevance is a real possibility.
I've been suggesting to Labour activists that boasting of knowing zero Tories is not a cause for celebration, but shame. It's going down as well as you might expect.
A very good friend of mine is a massive Corbynite (she's also quite a well known novelist)
The other day we had a drink (and I paid for her drink, as I normally do) and she got quite emotional and said "Tories are awful, just awful people, you're the only Tory voter I know" and to be honest i found it very hard not to punch her in her stupid face, as she drank the drink I'd paid for, and simultaneously told me how awful I was, and, by extension, how virtuous she was. I cut her some slack because I genuinely like her and hope this is a passing phase but.....
UGH
The ENTITLEMENT and the NARCISSISM
That is Labour now.
I liked @Monty's post. There is room for a moderate centre-left party in British politics.
However, a Labour government isn't a matter of wearing your best ruby slippers and clicking your heels three times.
I find it astonishing when I talk to apparently intelligent people who refuse to countenance attempting to persuade a 2015 Tory voter to switch sides. It's as if voting Tory is some incurable disease that renders one permanently beyond the pale.
For me, at present Twitter isn't so much social media as an anthropological experience. I am communing with a tribe who possess extremely strange customs and stranger beliefs. They do not want to convert Nuneaton Tories, yet are convinced that GE20 is in the bag.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
Michael Heseltine did the same to Thatcher, Thatcher did it to Heath, Redwood to Major, Maude and Crispin Blunt did it to IDS, just the Tories generally know how to assassinate effectively unlike Labour
This race is a lot closer than the national polls suggest, basically tied in Ohio and Florida also very close in Nevada.
Depends which national polls, Reuters and LAT have it close but it does suggest Trump has a good chance of winning Florida and Ohio but Hillary's stranglehold over Pennsylvania + Virginia + Colorado + 1 of Iowa, NH and Nevada should keep win her the election but it will be close
Trump has to find out why is he down so much in Pennsylvania and Georgia, what group is behind most of the movement there.
My guess is college educated women in Philadelphia and african americans in Atlanta.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
What;s this assertion based upon? My perception (very limited conversations with WWC god fearing gun owners) is that he's slowly losing the sane ones among them. This only question that remains in my mind is if they don't vote Trump then what will they do? Voting is an important ritual (as is church attendance). I'm just not sure abstention is an option. If Trump is to shore up this vote (and what a terrible pass things have come to for him if this is the strategy) then he needs to start respecting the conventions of the constitution no matter ho w much he despises the nominated opposition. Appearing as a revolutionary is starting to look reckless.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
There is a very real possibility of Corbyn destroying the Labour Party entirely. If he remains tin-eared to the concerns of the northern working class (and why shouldn't he as he is to everything else?) then Labour may be destroyed there as it has in Scotland. Wales is up for grabs too based on the Brexit result.
Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else.
Considering all of the above, if there was a possibility of joining a centre-left, modern party I would do it in a heart-beat. The LibDems are a poisoned and decimated brand after naively cooperating with the Tories so they won't do, but if there was a genuine moderate left-wing alternative I would resign my membership and join it immediately.
There is no party for my moderate, sensible left-wing politics currently. I believe in a welfare safety-net worth its name, and that it is shameful that we have homelessness in one of the richest countries in the world. I want a cooperative attitude to Europe. I would also like far greater regulation of Corporate pay with a German model of Union representation on company boards. The Conservative Party doesn't care about poverty. It claims to, but actions speak far louder than words.
This country is crying out for an alternative to permanent right-wing politics. I only hope some of the Parliamentary Labour Party have the guts to try for it.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
And the disconnect between this perfectly sensible view, and the one that NPXMPX2 holds is the heart of the issue.
NPXMPX2 thinks that the most important challenge facing the Labour Party is to define what it should believe in, that belief being a far left view of how he thinks the country could, theoretically, be run.
That this differs so much from the desire of millions of Lab voters who desperately want a centre left party to oppose the Cons, is a crying shame, not to say betrayal.
This race is a lot closer than the national polls suggest, basically tied in Ohio and Florida also very close in Nevada.
USA 2016 is the unelectable versus the unspeakable. Every time Trump does something utterly horrific I can imagine American voters sighing and thinking, OK, that;s that, I'll have to vote for... WAIT, HILLARY CLINTON??
*gag reflex*
And so they reluctantly edge back to Trump. Until he offends them again.
I reckon if Trump shut the F up and acted normal and sane and talked about the economy boringly and sensibly for the next six months, he'd probably win. But he is incapable of this.
Maybe but the problem is if Trump becomes Romney 2 he loses much of his appeal to his core support
His policies don't need to become Romney 2. He just has to stop taking the bait and stop answering provocateurs.
He still has several months to calm down a little
90 days till election day.
Or 8 weeks till early voting starts.
ie several months, not to mention the debates to come
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
For very technical, but impossible to change, reasons selection/deselection rules can't be reviewed until 2018 at the earliest. Even then it can only happen if the NEC agrees. Despite gains yesterday, the Corbyn cult still does not have an NEC majority. So, the likelihood of mass deselections before 2020 is very low. The Labour brand does run the risk of being heavily tarnished, but UKIP seems determined not to take advantage.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
A friend on facebook just posted about Corbyn (big supporter that he is) and it included the winning comment; "the obvious support Corbyn has from the public"
I just don't have the heart to post any polls, or election results to him. Poor lad.
Precisely. These people are utterly naive and/or deluded. Those of us who actually pay attention to politics outside of our own parties know this.
But in Labour the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
I'm surprised that so many in Labour can't see it.
They will eventually. Whether it will be too late to save the party is an open question. Whether the poor of this county deserve better from a competent opposition is an obvious one.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Sure, it sounds silly, but apparently it's keeping enough on board, between the core who think Corbyn will win and those who think he won't but are unwilling to go anywhere else. It means they will have a platform for recovery, and recoveries can be swift if they get lucky.
This race is a lot closer than the national polls suggest, basically tied in Ohio and Florida also very close in Nevada.
Depends which national polls, Reuters and LAT have it close but it does suggest Trump has a good chance of winning Florida and Ohio but Hillary's stranglehold over Pennsylvania + Virginia + Colorado + 1 of Iowa, NH and Nevada should keep win her the election but it will be close
Trump has to find out why is he down so much in Pennsylvania and Georgia, what group is behind most of the movement there.
My guess is college educated women in Philadelphia and african americans in Atlanta.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
True, but Trump would have to morph into Boris Johnson.
From an angry clown to a happy clown, as the media would put it.
The white working class turned out for Trump in their droves in the primaries, as they did for Boris in the Mayoral election, by no means impossible they could not do so again in the general election as they did for Boris in the referendum
A friend on facebook just posted about Corbyn (big supporter that he is) and it included the winning comment; "the obvious support Corbyn has from the public"
I just don't have the heart to post any polls, or election results to him. Poor lad.
My Corbynite novelist friend thinks the polls are simultaneously "lying" AND "irrelevant". When confronted with Labour's dire political reality - FPTP, Scotland, boundary changes, Brexit, the UKIP threat, the necessity of winning swing voters - she impatiently says "Well it shouldn't be like that, Corbyn has integrity and talks about Jung"
That's a verbatim quote. She goes to Corbyn's rallies.
The weird thing is she is sincerely intelligent. But when it comes to politics she's a fucking idiot. That's Corbyn's Clan. The Fucking Idiots of the Haute Bourgeoisie.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
No it is not, turnout in the referendum was 72%, the highest for any national election since 1992
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
But in Labour the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
I'm surprised that so many in Labour can't see it.
I think the problem is they don't want to see it. Because that would mean either that everyone in the world is wrong and so they can never achieve their dream of an egalitarian society (word chosen carefully) or that they are wrong and therefore bad people, which they know is impossible because they are the good ones.
To slightly misquote Matthew Henry, there are none so blind as those who will not see.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
It could also be more than 50%, especially if it is centered around the EU debate. No one knows at this point.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
Michael Heseltine did the same to Thatcher, Thatcher did it to Heath, Redwood to Major, Maude and Crispin Blunt did it to IDS, just the Tories generally know how to assassinate effectively unlike Labour
Heath had lost 2 elections, Heseltine did it 5 years before Thatcher left, Redwood 2 years before Major was gone, ect.
Only Thatcher succeeded to become leader, and that's because she had a very smart campaign manager.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
No it is not, turnout in the referendum was 72%, the highest for any national election since 1992
I think it's over now. This was the one place he hadn't yet gone and it will dominate the news for weeks now. There is a small minority of unbalanced, angry people in the US but nowhere near enough to elect one of their own.
He didn't make it clear whether he wanted liberal high court judges or Clinton shot, I suppose that was his attempt at wriggle room.
He did not suggest that, he just suggested they used the 2nd amendment to defend their rights if necessary and most of his supporters are gun owners
I think he suggested to them that they should vote for him.
But it's just a generic quote, it works as a Rorschach test.
An equivocal quote of its type is dangerous nevertheless as those who see bad things in the inkblots can also carry out those things.
The writer of Catcher in the Rye was not responsible for the death of John Lennon.
That's why generic quotes may work as a Rorschach test, for the subjects natural biases or mental stability.
Well that book was written in 1951 so if Salinger bore a grudge against Lennon it must have been virtually from birth. Either Trump is too dumb to realise that such statements can have consequences or bad enough to recognise it. Either position is not good for a potential POTUS. If his campaign managers are having to explain the speech then no matter what something is not right.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
For very technical, but impossible to change, reasons selection/deselection rules can't be reviewed until 2018 at the earliest. Even then it can only happen if the NEC agrees. Despite gains yesterday, the Corbyn cult still does not have an NEC majority. So, the likelihood of mass deselections before 2020 is very low. The Labour brand does run the risk of being heavily tarnished, but UKIP seems determined not to take advantage.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
But the threat is there, the threat of your members shoving you out at some point even if you are popular with your local electorate. What person is going to dedicate years to getting a seat if they don't know if they will hold onto it even after a GE win? Wait, it will be bum licking Corbynites, people who will be excessively loyal to the members and the top of the party but will have little support outside of that. Reminds me of the Communist party during the cold war, you had to be totally loyal to the fearless leader at all times even when they were dead wrong.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
It could also be more than 50%, especially if it is centered around the EU debate. No one knows at this point.
Trump should win Georgia in the end, Pennsylvania leans Hillary but could yet be won if it tightens up nationally but it requires a huge white working class rustbelt turnout to counteract Philadelphia. Hmm now where have we seen that happen before?
PA doesn't so much "lean" Clinton as falls horizontal.
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Hillary presently has a national poll lead of 7.5% according to RCP, so one of those Pennsylvania polls is actually slightly below her national poll lead. If the race nationally starts to tighten again, especially after the debates, then Pennsylvania comes into play again too
Including third parties Quinnipiac has Florida tied Trump 43% Clinton 43% Johnosn 7% Stein 3%, Ohio has a 2% Clinton lead Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 8% Stein 3%, Pennsylvania a 9% Clinton lead Clinton 48% Trump 39% Johnson 7% Stein 3%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead
You can't just pick one poll and compare it o her national average. That's like picking one slice from a hand picked cherry.
You can to an extent, for Trump to win he needs to win all the Romney states and Florida and Ohio as a given and then add Pennsylvania or NH, Iowa and Nevada. If the race tightens nationally those will be the key states to watch
But you are comparing a state low with the national centre point. You need to compare the state low with the national low or the state centre point with the national centre point.
A friend on facebook just posted about Corbyn (big supporter that he is) and it included the winning comment; "the obvious support Corbyn has from the public"
I just don't have the heart to post any polls, or election results to him. Poor lad.
My Corbynite novelist friend thinks the polls are simultaneously "lying" AND "irrelevant". When confronted with Labour's dire political reality - FPTP, Scotland, boundary changes, Brexit, the UKIP threat, the necessity of winning swing voters - she impatiently says "Well it shouldn't be like that, Corbyn has integrity and talks about Jung"
That's a verbatim quote. She goes to Corbyn's rallies.
The weird thing is she is sincerely intelligent. But when it comes to politics she's a fucking idiot. That's Corbyn's Clan. The Fucking Idiots of the Haute Bourgeoisie.
My latest interlocutor:
"It's a sound point that we have to win votes. They don't have to be Tory votes. Tories didn't win swing seats by ALL the votes."
A friend on facebook just posted about Corbyn (big supporter that he is) and it included the winning comment; "the obvious support Corbyn has from the public"
I just don't have the heart to post any polls, or election results to him. Poor lad.
Precisely. These people are utterly naive and/or deluded. Those of us who actually pay attention to politics outside of our own parties know this.
But in Labour the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
I'm surprised that so many in Labour can't see it.
They will eventually. Whether it will be too late to save the party is an open question. Whether the poor of this county deserve better from a competent opposition is an obvious one.
I have a small group of friends that are nominally Tory, the rest are Labour or the left and a chunk of them are Corbynites. They didn't even vaguely understand the 2015 GE result, I tried to make a few points but got the text version of blank stares and so just gave up and went back to posting about TV and what I had drunk at the weekend. The internet connects people with similar interests, which is awesome. But it is also a drawback sometimes as it moves people into closed circles where they only meet like minded people.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
It could also be more than 50%, especially if it is centered around the EU debate. No one knows at this point.
If May agrees some single market access it will be at least 65-70%, Corbynistas will vote Labour in droves, the middle classes will vote Tory in droves to keep him out, some angry Leavers will vote UKIP in droves to get the Brexit they really wanted.
The lowest turnout we have ever had in a general election was in 2001 at 59% when Labour was at its most Blairite and all powerful and the Tories seen as hopeless and too rightwing ie the exact reverse of now
Here are the Marist numbers, better for Trump than I would have expected given their methodology problems:
Iowa: Clinton 41 - Trump 37 (previously a tie) Ohio: Clinton 43 - Trump 38 (previous Hillary lead 3%) Pennsylvania: Clinton 48 - Trump 37 (previous Hillary lead 8%)
That adds Iowa to the list of states that have not recorded a Trump collapse.
A little like the 1870s, when the Carlist pretender (grandson of Charles X) and the Orleanist pretender (grandson of Louis-Philippe) rowed over who should be restored to the throne vacated by Napoleon III. In the end, the Orleanists made way as Henri (the Carlist pretender) had no children and therefore they would inherit anyway when he died, but he then refused to accept the throne because they wouldn't let him have the fleur de lis as his flag. And by the time he finally snuffed it, the Republicans had consolidated their hold and the monarchy was never restored.
French monarchical politics. Don't you just love the displacement activity?
The French Third Republic was no better, that said. It spent all its time chasing Jesuits and Jews while its educational system imploded, the economy stagnated and the army disintegrated.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will dor. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
For very technical, but impossible to change, reasons selection/deselection rules can't be reviewed until 2018 at the earliest. Even then it can only happen if the NEC agrees. Despite gains yesterday, the Corbyn cult still does not have an NEC majority. So, the likelihood of mass deselections before 2020 is very low. The Labour brand does run the risk of being heavily tarnished, but UKIP seems determined not to take advantage.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
Overly complacent. Cf Labour in Scotland, 2005-2015.
Two things:
1. A key aspect of the SNP surge was its left turn under Alex Salmond. Can UKIP match that? With its leadership and membership almost exclusively to the right of Theresa May that looks tricky. Immigration, post-Brexit, will only go so far. 2. The SNP also worked very hard locally. Again, there's little sign of that happening with UKIP.
What Scotland teaches is that the Labour vote could easily collapse, but only if UKIP does some very serious soul searching and ups its game massively. That may happen - and if it does all bets are off - but right now the odds are against it happening before the next GE when, I suspect, Labour will lose 40-50 seats almost exclusively to the Tories.
Hmm. I wonder if this might be a very dismaying Olympics for Team GB, not just a tad disappointing (which it was bound to be after London 2012).
Hubris, etc.
Given the nadirs that have been faced at previous Olympics, it would take a lot for it to be dismaying rather than merely disappointing. A bit like how very little can make someone who grew up following England cricket in the 90s truly dismayed at how the team does now.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
Michael Heseltine did the same to Thatcher, Thatcher did it to Heath, Redwood to Major, Maude and Crispin Blunt did it to IDS, just the Tories generally know how to assassinate effectively unlike Labour
Heath had lost 2 elections, Heseltine did it 5 years before Thatcher left, Redwood 2 years before Major was gone, ect.
Only Thatcher succeeded to become leader, and that's because she had a very smart campaign manager.
Yet Heseltine assassinated Thatcher as did Maude and Blunt IDS even if none of them wore the crown
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
Michael Heseltine did the same to Thatcher, Thatcher did it to Heath, Redwood to Major, Maude and Crispin Blunt did it to IDS, just the Tories generally know how to assassinate effectively unlike Labour
Heath had lost 2 elections, Heseltine did it 5 years before Thatcher left, Redwood 2 years before Major was gone, ect.
Only Thatcher succeeded to become leader, and that's because she had a very smart campaign manager.
Yet Heseltine assassinated Thatcher as did Maude and Blunt IDS even if none of them wore the crown
Considering all of the above, if there was a possibility of joining a centre-left, modern party I would do it in a heart-beat. The LibDems are a poisoned and decimated brand after naively cooperating with the Tories so they won't do, but if there was a genuine moderate left-wing alternative I would resign my membership and join it immediately.
I pretty well share your views and like you am a long standing party member.
The only bit of your (much longer) post that I might take issue with is your comment re the Lib Dems above. Yes there is still poison in their band but it will diminish further with time. For all the vitriol directed at them at the past by those on the left (myself included) there is a case that the whirlwind they reaped in 2015 was enough to teach the necessary lesson. The big obstacle to a reconciliation with the moderate left is now the presence of the still-despised NIck Clegg in their ranks. If I were Farron and seeking to facilitate cooperation between the Lib Dems and a Labour parliamentary breakaway, I would be holding urgent talks with Clegg to offer him a carrot to make an early announcement that he is standing down at the next election.
A little like the 1870s, when the Carlist pretender (grandson of Charles X) and the Orleanist pretender (grandson of Louis-Philippe) rowed over who should be restored to the throne vacated by Napoleon III. In the end, the Orleanists made way as Henri (the Carlist pretender) had no children and therefore they would inherit anyway when he died, but he then refused to accept the throne because they wouldn't let him have the fleur de lis as his flag. And by the time he finally snuffed it, the Republicans had consolidated their hold and the monarchy was never restored.
French monarchical politics. Don't you just love the displacement activity?
The French Third Republic was no better, that said. It spent all its time chasing Jesuits and Jews while its educational system imploded, the economy stagnated and the army disintegrated.
I think it was even dafter than that. The parliamentarians were happy for Henri to have the fleur de lis as his personal flag but refused to adopt it as the flag of France. Henri took umbrage at that, refused to recognise the tricolor and the rest is history, as were the Bourbons.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
No it is not, turnout in the referendum was 72%, the highest for any national election since 1992
The GE turnout will be a lot lower than that.
The 1983 election turnout was 72.7% when Labour were last led by a leader almost as leftwing as Corbyn and the Tories had a female PM
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the farEven after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
For very technical, but impossible to change, reasons selection/deselection rules can't be reviewed until 2018 at the earliest. Even then it can only happen if the NEC agrees. Despite gains yesterday, the Corbyn cult still does not have an NEC majority. So, the likelihood of mass deselections before 2020 is very low. The Labour brand does run the risk of being heavily tarnished, but UKIP seems determined not to take advantage.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
But the threat is there, the threat of your members shoving you out at some point even if you are popular with your local electorate. What person is going to dedicate years to getting a seat if they don't know if they will hold onto it even after a GE win? Wait, it will be bum licking Corbynites, people who will be excessively loyal to the members and the top of the party but will have little support outside of that. Reminds me of the Communist party during the cold war, you had to be totally loyal to the fearless leader at all times even when they were dead wrong.
I think they're betting that after 2020 the threat won't be there. A lot of wide-eyed Corbynite members are not going to survive the massive wake-up call they'll get come the next GE. They'll leave in order to play more Pokemon Go.
The weird thing is she is sincerely intelligent. But when it comes to politics she's a fucking idiot. That's Corbyn's Clan. The Fucking Idiots of the Haute Bourgeoisie.
That reminds me of the line in Casablanca about blundering Americans.
These fucking idiots who understand so little about politics are currently running rings around their opponents in the party. And those opponents, as well as being totally clueless about deposing Corbyn, seem equally ignorant of the rudimentary rule about divided parties being unpopular.
Nick Palmer says it's not so much that the MPs disagree with Corbyn, as that they think he can't win (a general election, that is). Yet only a few months ago Corbyn's approval ratings were higher than Cameron's. It's all too easy for this kind of prophecy to become self-fulfilling.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
Why would turnout drop by that much? It was 66% last time, even assuming a huge increase in stay at home votes from former Labour voters, that would be a hell of a drop.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
No it is not, turnout in the referendum was 72%, the highest for any national election since 1992
The GE turnout will be a lot lower than that.
The 1983 election turnout was 72.7% when Labour were last led by a leader almost as leftwing as Corbyn and the Tories had a female PM
On that polling and Quinnipiac Trump could get to 269 with Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and NH even without Pennsylvania
This is the interesting point:
"When the 2016 presidential race is expanded to four candidates - including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein - Clinton and Trump are tied at 35 percent each in Iowa, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 6 percent. (Last month in the state, Clinton and Trump were tied in the four-way horserace at 37 percent.)
In Ohio, Clinton gets the support of 39 percent of registered voters, Trump gets 35 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 4 percent. (It was Clinton 38 percent, Trump 35 percent last month.)
And in Pennsylvania, it's Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. (The numbers are nearly identical to what they were before the conventions last month.) "
But N.H. is on the list of states that have recorded the Trump collapse, including Georgia. He has to retain all the Romney states first, in order for him to have a chance.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
Why would turnout drop by that much? It was 66% last time, even assuming a huge increase in stay at home votes from former Labour voters, that would be a hell of a drop.
When the result is assured, people won't bother to vote...
On that polling and Quinnipiac Trump could get to 269 with Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and NH even without Pennsylvania
This is the interesting point:
"When the 2016 presidential race is expanded to four candidates - including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein - Clinton and Trump are tied at 35 percent each in Iowa, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 6 percent. (Last month in the state, Clinton and Trump were tied in the four-way horserace at 37 percent.)
In Ohio, Clinton gets the support of 39 percent of registered voters, Trump gets 35 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 4 percent. (It was Clinton 38 percent, Trump 35 percent last month.)
And in Pennsylvania, it's Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. (The numbers are nearly identical to what they were before the conventions last month.) "
But N.H. is on the list of states that have recorded the Trump collapse, including Georgia. He has to retain all the Romney states first, in order for him to have a chance.
Well obviously he has to retain the Romney states and probably win the debates. The last WMUR NH poll had Clinton ahead by just 2%
The weird thing is she is sincerely intelligent. But when it comes to politics she's a fucking idiot. That's Corbyn's Clan. The Fucking Idiots of the Haute Bourgeoisie.
That reminds me of the line in Casablanca about blundering Americans.
These fucking idiots who understand so little about politics are currently running rings around their opponents in the party. And those opponents, as well as being totally clueless about deposing Corbyn, seem equally ignorant of the rudimentary rule about divided parties being unpopular.
Nick Palmer says it's not so much that the MPs disagree with Corbyn, as that they think he can't win (a general election, that is). Yet only a few months ago Corbyn's approval ratings were higher than Cameron's. It's all too easy for this kind of prophecy to become self-fulfilling.
Don't understand this comment
I think it is saying:
a) Corbyn's lot are easily beating the others, so if the former are idiots, the latter are bigger idiots (and by extension, if the bigger idiots say one thing, they may be wrong)
b) Corbyn's ratings were high months ago, so perhaps he could have won, but by their actions in saying he cannot win a GE, and dividing the party, the MPs are making it so he cannot.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
Why would turnout drop by that much? It was 66% last time, even assuming a huge increase in stay at home votes from former Labour voters, that would be a hell of a drop.
When the result is assured, people won't bother to vote...
Not when the risk of not voting is letting Corbyn in, turnout was over 70% in 1983 and Corbyn's supporters will vote for him come hell or high water
A little like the 1870s, when the Carlist pretender (grandson of Charles X) and the Orleanist pretender (grandson of Louis-Philippe) rowed over who should be restored to the throne vacated by Napoleon III. In the end, the Orleanists made way as Henri (the Carlist pretender) had no children and therefore they would inherit anyway when he died, but he then refused to accept the throne because they wouldn't let him have the fleur de lis as his flag. And by the time he finally snuffed it, the Republicans had consolidated their hold and the monarchy was never restored.
French monarchical politics. Don't you just love the displacement activity?
The French Third Republic was no better, that said. It spent all its time chasing Jesuits and Jews while its educational system imploded, the economy stagnated and the army disintegrated.
I think it was even dafter than that. The parliamentarians were happy for Henri to have the fleur de lis as his personal flag but refused to adopt it as the flag of France. Henri took umbrage at that, refused to recognise the tricolor and the rest is history, as were the Bourbons.
Yes, by 'his' I meant 'the flag of France'. In fact, both the Assembly and the Pretender at one point thought the other had agreed to their demands because the negotiations were so opaque. Thiers suggested the compromise and was damaged by the debacle.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
That brand is on 28% even now. They could suffer hugely, but in the absence of a challenger, they will survive, and a new chance will come. This isn't Japan, no way the Tories can rule forever.
The rallying cry for Labour;
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
Turnout at the next GE could be less than 50%. A truly shocking figure. Politics is broken in the UK.
Why would turnout drop by that much? It was 66% last time, even assuming a huge increase in stay at home votes from former Labour voters, that would be a hell of a drop.
When the result is assured, people won't bother to vote...
Still got 59% turnout in 2001 with an assured result. Say it is even worse this time, it's still difficult to see it dropping below 50%. Particularly as the trend has been up (albeit with results less seemingly assured).
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
Oh come on, there is nothing decent about Angela Eagle or Hilary Benn.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
Michael Heseltine did the same to Thatcher, Thatcher did it to Heath, Redwood to Major, Maude and Crispin Blunt did it to IDS, just the Tories generally know how to assassinate effectively unlike Labour
Heath had lost 2 elections, Heseltine did it 5 years before Thatcher left, Redwood 2 years before Major was gone, ect.
Only Thatcher succeeded to become leader, and that's because she had a very smart campaign manager.
Yet Heseltine assassinated Thatcher as did Maude and Blunt IDS even if none of them wore the crown
Howe did it, not Heseltine.
Howe encouraged Heseltine but it was Heseltine who wielded the knife
Hmm. I wonder if this might be a very dismaying Olympics for Team GB, not just a tad disappointing (which it was bound to be after London 2012).
Hubris, etc.
Given the nadirs that have been faced at previous Olympics, it would take a lot for it to be dismaying rather than merely disappointing. A bit like how very little can make someone who grew up following England cricket in the 90s truly dismayed at how the team does now.
We over-achieved in London.
Primarily thanks to your unswerving confidence that we'd do well. It was impossible not to be moved by your bulldog spirit and boundless confidence in the abilities of team GB.
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he has no chance of being removed before 2020 at the earliest. If there is an early election he and the far-left will claim the Kinnock precedent and say that he hasn't had a fair crack of the whip yet so should continue. He will demand to do so and his personality cult of Momentum will ensure it. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
For very technical, but impossible to change, reasons selection/deselection rules can't be reviewed until 2018 at the earliest. Even then it can only happen if the NEC agrees. Despite gains yesterday, the Corbyn cult still does not have an NEC majority. So, the likelihood of mass deselections before 2020 is very low. The Labour brand does run the risk of being heavily tarnished, but UKIP seems determined not to take advantage.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
It's not a case of deselections. It's a case of reselections forced by 2018 boundary changes that completely change the structure of UK parliamentary seats, in which one Labour MP will be competing with another former Labour MP as well as a Corbynite to gain the nomination, with Momentum pressing strongly for the latter and the same mass membership as now getting to decide.
Even if they don't jump before then, a lot of Labour MPs hostile to Corbyn will from 2018 learn that they will not be a candidate for Labour in 2020. At which point, they might just start to look with renewed interest at the option of.............
Hmm. I wonder if this might be a very dismaying Olympics for Team GB, not just a tad disappointing (which it was bound to be after London 2012).
Hubris, etc.
Given the nadirs that have been faced at previous Olympics, it would take a lot for it to be dismaying rather than merely disappointing. A bit like how very little can make someone who grew up following England cricket in the 90s truly dismayed at how the team does now.
I think we will end up with single digit golds, which will be way short of what was expected. But meh. We over-achieved in London.
I think people are forgetting how "disappointing" the first few days in London were. And the swimming was an absolute disaster.
...When confronted with Labour's dire political reality...she impatiently says "Well it shouldn't be like that, Corbyn has integrity and talks about Jung"...
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
t.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Yes! Completely and utterly. Particularly this:
"Corbyn represents a very narrow urban middle-class lefty world view that does well in London, Manchester, Brighton and Twitter. Nowhere else."
Unfortunately, too many are lost in the echo chamber of social media where they are just talking to one another, rather than swing voters. Should they encounter a swing voter, who expresses any doubts about Corbyn's suitability as a potential PM, they seem to be telling them to 'vote Tory' as a tactic.
NPXMP would do well to look far more closely at what has happened to Labour here in Scotland. They have no divine right to exist as one of the two main parties, and if voters decide they're out of touch, extinction or irrelevance is a real possibility.
I've been suggesting to Labour activists that boasting of knowing zero Tories is not a cause for celebration, but shame. It's going down as well as you might expect.
A very good friend of mine is a massive Corbynite (she's also quite a well known novelist)
The other day we had a drink (and I paid for her drink, as I normally do) and she got quite emotional and said "Tories are awful, just awful people, you're the only Tory voter I know" and to be honest i found it very hard not to punch her in her stupid face, as she drank the drink I'd paid for, and simultaneously told me how awful I was, and, by extension, how virtuous she was. I cut her some slack because I genuinely like her and hope this is a passing phase but.....
Well, the MPs may or may not have the courage to split, and I suspect not considering the current voting system and how it penalises small parties, but I've been a loyal member and activist for over 20 years and I believe Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Luckily for the country he has almost zero chance of becoming PM.
Unluckily for the Labour Party he. Even after 2020 that may well happen.
.
I doubt they will and the UK will suffer over the next 10-30 years because there is now no opposition.
Under FPTP, there's no way a split can work. It's as simple as that. What will do for Corbyn in the end is that he is genuinely crap. He is incapable of leading. He just cannot do it. Labour will be battered in 2020 and a lot of wide-eyed Corbynites will be genuinely shocked. They'll go away to look for something else to latch onto. Then the hard work that should have started in 2010 will begin, probably under a female leader. At last.
But by then Labour's brand could be ruined forever. And most of the decent MPs deselected.
Labour could die, here and now. This is different to the Tories under IDS.
For very technical, but impossible to change, reasons selection/deselection rules can't be reviewed until 2018 at the earliest. Even then it can only happen if the NEC agrees. Despite gains yesterday, the Corbyn cult still does not have an NEC majority. So, the likelihood of mass deselections before 2020 is very low. The Labour brand does run the risk of being heavily tarnished, but UKIP seems determined not to take advantage.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
It's not a case of deselections. It's a case of reselections forced by 2018 boundary changes that completely change the structure of UK parliamentary seats, in which one Labour MP will be competing with another former Labour MP as well as a Corbynite to gain the nomination, with Momentum pressing strongly for the latter and the same mass membership as now getting to decide.
Even if they don't jump before then, a lot of Labour MPs hostile to Corbyn will from 2018 learn that they will not be a candidate for Labour in 2020. At which point, they might just start to look with renewed interest at the option of.............
Rosie Winterton is setting rules for the boundary change selections. It looks like only MPs will contest.
However, if there are mass deselections the Corbyn cult will create a new party that will fight against them and probably cost them a lot of seats. It's perfectly possible they could be that stupid.
This stuff about the Parliamentary party being sympathetic with Corbyn's 'policies' is rubbish isn't it? They're just pretending to agree with him because they are trying to draw his support by focussing purely on his incompetence.
Comments
That would be Momentum's gentler kind of politics.
Maybe they are just Putin stooges, people are saying that. I don't know.....
538 has Clinton on 81.2 on Polls+ and the last five polls are Clinton +10 +14 +12 +7 +14
Including third parties Quinnipiac has Florida tied Trump 43% Clinton 43% Johnosn 7% Stein 3%, Ohio has a 2% Clinton lead Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 8% Stein 3%, Pennsylvania a 9% Clinton lead Clinton 48% Trump 39% Johnson 7% Stein 3%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/30/labours-parliamentary-pain-is-not-just-bad-for-labour-but-for-the-country-as-a-whole/
The Trump Collapse is of different magnitudes in different states.
From almost nothing in Nevada, to catastrophic in Pennsylvania.
But why in Pennsylvania, Georgia, N.H, Virginia and Missouri and not in Nevada, Arizona, Florida, N.C and Ohio ?
My guess is educated women and african americans, two groups that he has gone sharply down.
With african americans he gets just 1% consistently from poll to poll.
He has to correct it but from a distance first, if he tries it in person he might get lynched.
If any Tory Minister had equivalent behaviour against his own leader, what would you have done ?
"the obvious support Corbyn has from the public"
I just don't have the heart to post any polls, or election results to him. Poor lad.
If Cooper survives deselection and boundary changes she may have a chance. But otherwise - Stella Creasy? Sunk without trace. Chuka Umanna? Nah, forget it, empty suit. Mary Creagh? Will almost certainly lose Wakefield and even if she held on makes Kendall look like May. Any given Corbynite, including the entire current shadow cabinet? After 2020 they will be as popular as scabies and about as useful.
It seems to me entirely possible that somebody not even in Parliament yet will replace Corbyn, because everyone who is in Parliament will be tainted by this disaster. Ed Balls might still be worth a punt at 100/1 or more, but another possibility to keep an eye on could be Richard Corbitt if he was parachuted into a safe seat somewhere.
With IDS, it was the quiet man turning up the volume. No biggie; the Tories survived.
With Corbyn, it's the crazy man turning up the voltage. Labour will be electrocuted.
Of course if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he adds NH, Iowa and Nevada to Florida and Ohio instead, tieing the EC at 269 states each and a GOP House would then most probably award him the presidency
That's why generic quotes may work as a Rorschach test, for the subjects natural biases or mental stability.
However, a Labour government isn't a matter of wearing your best ruby slippers and clicking your heels three times.
I find it astonishing when I talk to apparently intelligent people who refuse to countenance attempting to persuade a 2015 Tory voter to switch sides. It's as if voting Tory is some incurable disease that renders one permanently beyond the pale.
For me, at present Twitter isn't so much social media as an anthropological experience. I am communing with a tribe who possess extremely strange customs and stranger beliefs. They do not want to convert Nuneaton Tories, yet are convinced that GE20 is in the bag.
"We will win at some point, the Tories will just get bored and implode. To the barricades!"
NPXMPX2 thinks that the most important challenge facing the Labour Party is to define what it should believe in, that belief being a far left view of how he thinks the country could, theoretically, be run.
That this differs so much from the desire of millions of Lab voters who desperately want a centre left party to oppose the Cons, is a crying shame, not to say betrayal.
That said, if mass deselections did occur, deselected MPs would still be MPs until the next election, so Corbynistas will basically create a new party to oppose them.
Those of us who actually pay attention to politics outside of our own parties know this.
But in Labour the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
I'm surprised that so many in Labour can't see it.
They will eventually. Whether it will be too late to save the party is an open question.
Whether the poor of this county deserve better from a competent opposition is an obvious one.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/09/pretender-to-frances-non-existent-throne-embroiled-in-succession/
Corbyn's most vocal supporters are people who have never voted Labour before
To slightly misquote Matthew Henry, there are none so blind as those who will not see.
Only Thatcher succeeded to become leader, and that's because she had a very smart campaign manager.
Wait, it will be bum licking Corbynites, people who will be excessively loyal to the members and the top of the party but will have little support outside of that. Reminds me of the Communist party during the cold war, you had to be totally loyal to the fearless leader at all times even when they were dead wrong.
IA - Clinton 41 .. Trump 37
OH - Clinton 43 .. Trump 38
PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 37
https://twitter.com/maristpoll?lang=en-gb
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541?cid=sm_tw
"It's a sound point that we have to win votes. They don't have to be Tory votes. Tories didn't win swing seats by ALL the votes."
The internet connects people with similar interests, which is awesome. But it is also a drawback sometimes as it moves people into closed circles where they only meet like minded people.
The lowest turnout we have ever had in a general election was in 2001 at 59% when Labour was at its most Blairite and all powerful and the Tories seen as hopeless and too rightwing ie the exact reverse of now
Iowa: Clinton 41 - Trump 37 (previously a tie)
Ohio: Clinton 43 - Trump 38 (previous Hillary lead 3%)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48 - Trump 37 (previous Hillary lead 8%)
That adds Iowa to the list of states that have not recorded a Trump collapse.
French monarchical politics. Don't you just love the displacement activity?
The French Third Republic was no better, that said. It spent all its time chasing Jesuits and Jews while its educational system imploded, the economy stagnated and the army disintegrated.
1. A key aspect of the SNP surge was its left turn under Alex Salmond. Can UKIP match that? With its leadership and membership almost exclusively to the right of Theresa May that looks tricky. Immigration, post-Brexit, will only go so far.
2. The SNP also worked very hard locally. Again, there's little sign of that happening with UKIP.
What Scotland teaches is that the Labour vote could easily collapse, but only if UKIP does some very serious soul searching and ups its game massively. That may happen - and if it does all bets are off - but right now the odds are against it happening before the next GE when, I suspect, Labour will lose 40-50 seats almost exclusively to the Tories.
The only bit of your (much longer) post that I might take issue with is your comment re the Lib Dems above. Yes there is still poison in their band but it will diminish further with time. For all the vitriol directed at them at the past by those on the left (myself included) there is a case that the whirlwind they reaped in 2015 was enough to teach the necessary lesson. The big obstacle to a reconciliation with the moderate left is now the presence of the still-despised NIck Clegg in their ranks. If I were Farron and seeking to facilitate cooperation between the Lib Dems and a Labour parliamentary breakaway, I would be holding urgent talks with Clegg to offer him a carrot to make an early announcement that he is standing down at the next election.
These fucking idiots who understand so little about politics are currently running rings around their opponents in the party. And those opponents, as well as being totally clueless about deposing Corbyn, seem equally ignorant of the rudimentary rule about divided parties being unpopular.
Nick Palmer says it's not so much that the MPs disagree with Corbyn, as that they think he can't win (a general election, that is). Yet only a few months ago Corbyn's approval ratings were higher than Cameron's. It's all too easy for this kind of prophecy to become self-fulfilling.
"When the 2016 presidential race is expanded to four candidates - including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein - Clinton and Trump are tied at 35 percent each in Iowa, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 6 percent. (Last month in the state, Clinton and Trump were tied in the four-way horserace at 37 percent.)
In Ohio, Clinton gets the support of 39 percent of registered voters, Trump gets 35 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 4 percent. (It was Clinton 38 percent, Trump 35 percent last month.)
And in Pennsylvania, it's Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. (The numbers are nearly identical to what they were before the conventions last month.) "
But N.H. is on the list of states that have recorded the Trump collapse, including Georgia.
He has to retain all the Romney states first, in order for him to have a chance.
"That polling" has Trump losing in Ohio and Iowa!
a) Corbyn's lot are easily beating the others, so if the former are idiots, the latter are bigger idiots (and by extension, if the bigger idiots say one thing, they may be wrong)
b) Corbyn's ratings were high months ago, so perhaps he could have won, but by their actions in saying he cannot win a GE, and dividing the party, the MPs are making it so he cannot.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/09/jeremy-corbyn-allies-plan-to-approve-mandatory-reselection-by-en/
http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll
That was WBUR not WMUR, but you get the drift.
The list of states so far that Trump has recorded drops of 10 points or more:
N.H.
Virginia
Georgia
Pennsylvania
Missouri
The states where Trump has recorded drops of 5 points or less:
Iowa
Ohio
N.Carolina
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Brought a tear to the eye.
Even if they don't jump before then, a lot of Labour MPs hostile to Corbyn will from 2018 learn that they will not be a candidate for Labour in 2020. At which point, they might just start to look with renewed interest at the option of.............
Otto: Apes don't read philosophy.
Wanda: Yes they do, Otto. They just don't understand it.
However, if there are mass deselections the Corbyn cult will create a new party that will fight against them and probably cost them a lot of seats. It's perfectly possible they could be that stupid.
today aged 64 at Royal Preston Hospital in Lancashire