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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy the good polling news for Clinton continues
” It’s not just that Donald Trump needs to pivot – it’s that he needs to pivot away from being what’s made him Donald Trump. That means traditional-candidate Trump, maybe even boring-candidate Trump, reading from notes or TelePrompTers, and staying away from interviews and Twitter for a while.
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Which is effectively set up free schools for the poor, select by "motivation / potential" (not current test scores) then make them do more tuition, shorter holidays & generally worked a lot harder, with failure for the student or parents not willing to fully partake leading to exclusion.
Not sure how this would interrelate with personal taxes given that a lot of US businesses are carried out through LLCs (which are tax transparent entities) and thus directly taxed on their owners.
This would make the US more tax competitive and make a UK corporation tax rate of 15% more likely.
Whilst this is terrible for the UK as a whole, I cannot help but laugh at Labour's pain, given how they were laughing at the Tories from 1997-2007... and taking us into illegal wars and fecking us economically..
30 yrs before Labour are in power again, if they are that lucky.....
Yes.
Best thing he can do ?
Resign and let someone else have a try.
I'm pro-grammar, on balance, partly because I went to one. But I can see both sides of the argument, I recognise I'm not disinterested and I'm open to persuasion.
What I can't understand is the vitriolic hatred of grammar school sin the Labour Party. 'Consign to the dustbin of history' is something we do to morally bankrupt regimes like the Soviet Union. It isn't really language to use about some quite successful schools you want to operate differently. They sound utterly deranged.
Just look at the data. There's a fuller version of the graph here, which shows about a dozen polls from October 1980 immediately before the Reagan-Carter debate.
Anyone with eyes can see that on average Reagan was several points ahead of Carter during that period.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_Is_Power_Program
It was an inspiration behind Gove's approach, but he only took bits and pieces rather than the whole approach, which would have got him even worse headlines.
"Every story has their white-bearded-hero, Gandalf, Dumbledore, we've got @jeremycorbyn" - Verity sums up #Corbyn. https://t.co/Rm7Cr9aSAJ
Trump is also now the party's official nominee and will not resign (not that any other Republican clinically sane would take the nomination now this year anyway, especially as half the Trump voters would refuse to vote for them)
I do wonder, though, if Trump and co had been reading another of my pieces: http://www.thstailwinds.com/chasing-their-tails/
Bush 1's gravitas also compensated for any lack of charisma.
http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/
You can look beyond 1980 too, in 1960 JFK trailed Nixon pre debate, in 2000 Bush trailed Gore, in both cases the debates were pivotal
As I mentioned much earlier, they would need to find seats where the LD were very close in winning last time.
For instance, the closest seat geographically Hilary Benn can run at as a LD (or Alliance) with hopes of victory is Bradford East, but it is 40% asian and the sitting Labour MP is asian.
If he wants to stand in Cambridge, the LD have already selected a candidate and university seats are very Corbyn friendly.
He may even try for a Tory-LD marginal like Eastbourne, they are many times the number of Tory-LD marginals than Labour-LD ones.
But as a LD or Alliance he has no hope of winning in his present seat of Leeds Central.
And before EU expansion what did we have...oh yeah special visa for eastern Europeans to be fruit pickers.
I have seen more accurate reporting in daily mail article on immigration than those ch4 claims.
"Ivanka Trump should replace her Dad as GOP nominee"
LDs don't want Hilary Benn as a candidate and Hilary Benn does not want to join the LDs.
LDs are not Labour lite. LDs believe in free trade and least state intervention. Labour are protectionist and in favour of state intervention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF9gSyku-fc
Of course when Bush 1 faced a more charismatic opponent than Dukakis, Bill Clinton in 1992, he lost
Will the LD accept those Labour MP's in the first place, much less accommodating them with the best seats ?
A candidate who lies so much is always going to be in trouble in debates and that's why he's been complaining about them. I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to reduce their number or even 'do a Fox' and refuse to attend.
There are much more powerful critiques that can be made. The anti-Brexit brigade should be going ham on the automotive sector and the City.
In debates you can win as long as you are the happy charming liar, and your lies have a grain of truth in them.
Trying to woo an electorate is like trying to woo a woman to bed, that's why Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were so successful.
Trump on the other hand would probably be kicked by a woman in the balls if he tried his approach (and that is what is going now in the polls).
You are treating the American people as stupid, imagine if you claimed the same for the UK.
Trump needs to prove that he is a rational smart human being with some basic charm (almost the opposite of now), his real enemy (aka the media) are populated by those people, he has to prove that he is better than them to win the girl (and the election).
Most immigrants (especially the illegal ones )have fewer or almost no rights and are payed meager wages, and the immigration trade in the middle east looks like the slave trade.
Also immigrants are employed for the same reasons slaves were, as cheap labour, and tend to be abused by their employers too.
He only has 90 days to reverse a 10 point lead for Hillary.
He can only do it by reversing his public image as soon as possible, not waiting for the debates which come only weeks before the election.
Don't forget, early voting starts a month before the election.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3730105/He-really-Superman-TeamGB-swimming-golden-boy-Adam-Peaty-shows-super-human-strength-doing-incredible-push-ups-ground.html
Elections are truly like a date, after all you are asking the country to marry you for 4-5 years.
I presume John has had to go for a cold shower after all that...erhhh...excitement.
On a separate issue, I was unaware that Nixon refused to debate with Humphrey in 1968.That did not prevent him being elected so there is a precedent available there should a candidate not wish to proceed with the debates.
£4300...£4300...£4300...
Vote Leave claiming that their polling suggested that went down like a bucket of cold sick. Was it Obama wot lost it?
Here's a little PB.com graffiti:
In November, one third of the Senate are up for election and also the entire House of Representatives. As the Republicans have, I believe, a majority in both houses, the Democrats see an opportunity to regain ground. I do hope Trump keeps shovelling.
Concerning Trump, I thought he'd start listening to his advisers by this point. Apparently he isn't, or his advisers are nuts, or I am wrong and he'll surfboard into office.
I'd be curious to know what some people have against Clinton, except that she's no American Tory type.
On repeat...
Hur hur hur!
Criticality the Republicans don't have a Bush or Nixon on the ticket.