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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    John_M said:

    Dadge said:

    Pro EU labour are going to have fun selling their message in places like Sunderland.

    Very true and in places such as Wales. Labour have forgotten who their voters are.
    I think Labour have to write the EU off as an issue, and go with the Brexit flow.
    Then they lose their membership, London and some of the larger cities. Their electoral base is now like chalk and cheese. One despises the other. Quite how they've arrived at this position, Lord only knows. Time for the posh word of the day: Labour are in zugzwang.
    But it's not a very salient issue for most Labour voters.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fox
    BREAKING: Parents of Two Benghazi Victims File Lawsuit Against Hillary Clinton: https://t.co/3o99gbj4t7
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    PlatoSaid said:

    PARIS (AP) — A judge has handed a 16-year-old French girl preliminary terrorism charges for allegedly supporting the Islamic State group and trying to perpetrate an attack, prosecutors said Monday.

    The girl was using a social media app to spread calls by IS to commit violent acts, the Paris prosecutor's office said.

    The judge charged the teenager with taking part in a "criminal terrorist association" and "inciting to commit terrorist acts through an online communication medium." She has been placed in custody.

    The investigators said the girl was "extremely radicalized" and was the administrator of a chat group dedicated to IS propaganda on the Telegram app, which has been used by suspected jihadis to communicate, deputy prosecutor Laure Vermeersch said.

    Good for the French authorities. You have to tackle it without fear or favour. If they can break into the previously no-go areas and start eliminating things - then they might stand a chance of nipping a few attacks in the bud.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,138
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:


    As I said Gallup had Carter ahead before the debates and most of the polls showed he got a bigger convention bounce than Reagan, the debates helped Reagan on his way to a 9% victory margin, Trump only needs to win by 1%

    No, what you said was "Reagan trailed Carter after the conventions in 1980 but won the election in the debates." That was what I was correcting.

    Nothing to correct. Gallup had Carter with a bigger bounce than Reagan post convention, leading Reagan before the debates, Reagan leading after the debates. All pollsters had Reagan winning the debates
    Obviously, the claim you made that needed correction was "Reagan trailed Carter after the conventions in 1980". As the polling data clearly show, Reagan was ahead of Carter continuously after the conventions:
    http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/

    You don't dispute that Reagan was ahead of Carter, do you?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Cookie said:



    We'd thought of that, actually (or Exeter) - and also of staying overnight in Somerset or some such(didn't investigate Airbnb - that might have been an option). But timings were unhelpful and aeroplane travel would minimise the absolutely massive amount of stuff we need to take. We'd also thought of me and the big two driving down and picking up wife and baby at south-western airport - but again, timings were such that by the time we reconvened the A30 would be full. So, we'll set off from Manchester at 5. Breakfast at South Gloucester Services, where we will buy some pies for tea (always go to South Gloucester or Tebay services if you have the option, and buy pies). I am totally convinced it will be a fun family adventure.

    Having said that, my mother-in-law, who is joining us, is flying to Newquay and getting a taxi, and is, to my mind, rather unseemly in her glee about her choice of transport.

    Take your point about the amount of stuff one has to take with three girls and one of them barely a toddler. To get round that I might have send wife and kids down on the aeroplane with mum in law (who sounds very sensible) while I, manfully, set off the day before on a solo drive. Maybe even got the stuff couriered down to the destination, or any other of a dozen schemes that would let me out of sitting in a car for hours and hours with four women, at least three of whom are gong to be bored silly.

    Anyway, I hope you and your family enjoy your adventure (because, as Mr, T. says, that is the best way to treat such a journey) and you all have a cracking holiday.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited August 2016
    Gloucester services where Waitrose meets the teletubbies...
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @sunil

    "I did Salisbury to Westbury by rail for the first time today"

    Westbury, there is a name that still has the power to send shivers down my spine, and a lot of other once young men. Went there just once and, like most, I failed.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GIN1138 said:

    Have been watching Laura's Brexit documentary on IPlayer.

    Very good. Anna Soubry still looks utterly broken! :smiley:

    Yes Laura K is very good.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    PlatoSaid said:

    Fox
    BREAKING: Parents of Two Benghazi Victims File Lawsuit Against Hillary Clinton: https://t.co/3o99gbj4t7

    Backed by Freedom Watch which seems to be a serial litigant
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Klayman
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited August 2016
    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Messrs Meeks and Smithson, above the line, were reassuring us REMAIN was waltzing it, until about a week before the vote. Indeed they wrote endless threaders LAUGHING at the LEAVE campaign.

    The pompous advice given to the Leave campaign wasn't a high point... All the while Remain were systematically destroying their own case.
    The terrific complacency from REMAIN certainly contributed to their downfall. Yes, I'm looking at you, Richard "it'll be 70/30" Nabavi.

    I don't believe they gamed the possibility that immigration would dominate, that Boris and Gove would join LEAVE, and so on.
    It was a victory of the incompetent over the dire. At times, the Leave campaign was awful. But, the Remain campaign managed to be worse.

    The Remain campaign was poor, but I don't know what else they could have done. The product they were selling was undesirable. Roger will tell you that there's only so much turd polishing decent advertising can do and the EU is an absolutely massive, stinking turd.
    It was obvious in hindsight that having Cameron leading the Remain campaign was a very stupid thing to do.
    In retrospect Alan Johnson would have been better (although he led the official campaign he did not lead the unofficial campaign), working class background, Labour but Blairite enough not to turn off Tories. However I doubt it would have changed the result
    It's remarkable how often the nonentity Johnson is talked up on here
    :+1:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:


    As I said Gallup had Carter ahead before the debates and most of the polls showed he got a bigger convention bounce than Reagan, the debates helped Reagan on his way to a 9% victory margin, Trump only needs to win by 1%

    No, what you said was "Reagan trailed Carter after the conventions in 1980 but won the election in the debates." That was what I was correcting.

    Nothing to correct. Gallup had Carter with a bigger bounce than Reagan post convention, leading Reagan before the debates, Reagan leading after the debates. All pollsters had Reagan winning the debates
    Obviously, the claim you made that needed correction was "Reagan trailed Carter after the conventions in 1980". As the polling data clearly show, Reagan was ahead of Carter continuously after the conventions:
    http://themonkeycage.org/2012/08/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/

    You don't dispute that Reagan was ahead of Carter, do you?
    The polling data actually do not clearly show that, as I said Gallup had Carter ahead of Reagan after the conventions
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