Kippers and the likes of Cash, Redwood, Rees-Mogg and IDS are quite willing to sacrifice access to the Single Market as long as they get a complete end to free movement
Cash, Redwood and IDS were head-banging Eurosceptics long before anyone thought that free movement was a bad idea. They were purely motivated by restoring the sovereignty of parliament. I think they'd be fairly relaxed about an EEA approach, in contrast to the Kippers.
IDS has certainly said he wants an end to free movement and Cash was a strong Leadsom backer on that basis. The purest Kippers would be quite happy living in a basketcase economy as long as it had no connection to Europe
They say that at the moment because it's the best political defence against manoeuvring for 'Brexit in name only'.
Your final sentence is true, except for the claim that this would make them happy - they will never be happy.
The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
This is precicely the main economic case for Brexit.
Without a devaluation or imposing tarrifs, the british economy would collapse from the giant size of the twin deficits (budget and current account), in a classic balance of payments crisis.
With Brexit, the devaluation and potecial tarrifs might arrest the development of the upcoming crisis before it's too late.
It's like stopping the housing bubble in 2005 instead of allowing it to pop in 2008.
ndeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
Out of curiosity where are mainland Europe's nurses from ?
Whatever it will be it will be reciprocal - you fuck me, I'll fuck you
So dragging everyone down with us then!
Their instigation
Yes but as well as both sides suffering from a trade war the UK would suffer worse because of the loss of investment and the City would also lose from the lost free movement
Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
.
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
You seem to be unable to distinguish access from membership. Everyone has access to the single market. Not everyone is a member. There are, of course, three single markets. Goods, services (incomplete) and the nascent digital version.
Many countries trade perfectly well without either membership or even an FTA. The EU has formal FTAs with just 2 out of 10 of its largest trade partners. The City would very much like to keep financial passporting of course.
In terms of value, we exported £134 billion to the EU in 2015. Its an important part of our economy, but it comprises less than half of our export trade and that ratio is falling. Three quarters of UK companies do no international trade at all.
In terms of labour movement, this can be addressed through a visa scheme, of which we have many versions. There is no particular advantage in freedom of movement to address sectorial skills shortages.
Your post is, frankly, over-hysterical hyperbole. Zimbabwean dollar my arse.
Kippers and the likes of Cash, Redwood, Rees-Mogg and IDS are quite willing to sacrifice access to the Single Market as long as they get a complete end to free movement
Cash, Redwood and IDS were head-banging Eurosceptics long before anyone thought that free movement was a bad idea. They were purely motivated by restoring the sovereignty of parliament. I think they'd be fairly relaxed about an EEA approach, in contrast to the Kippers.
IDS has certainly said he wants an end to free movement and Cash was a strong Leadsom backer on that basis. The purest Kippers would be quite happy living in a basketcase economy as long as it had no connection to Europe
They say that at the moment because it's the best political defence against manoeuvring for 'Brexit in name only'.
Your final sentence is true, except for the claim that this would make them happy - they will never be happy.
They will never be happy, exactly so I don't see why they should be able to take the economy crashing down to match their mood!
I said when the first poll came out showing YES at around 55%, that using our experience from the last 3 referendums, in a few months time it will turn back to a NO.
Well it turned back into a NO after a single month.
At the peak of the kneejerk reaction YES could only muster 55%, that was a clear warning sign.
The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
You seem to be unable to distinguish access from membership. Everyone has access to the single market. Not everyone is a member. There are, of course, three single markets. Goods, services (incomplete) and the nascent digital version.
Many countries trade perfectly well without either membership or even an FTA. The EU has formal FTAs with just 2 out of 10 of its largest trade partners. The City would very much like to keep financial passporting of course.
In terms of value, we exported £134 billion to the EU in 2015. Its an important part of our economy, but it comprises less than half of our export trade and that ratio is falling. Three quarters of UK companies do no international trade at all.
In terms of labour movement, this can be addressed through a visa scheme, of which we have many versions. There is no particular advantage in freedom of movement to address sectorial skills shortages.
Your post is, frankly, over-hysterical hyperbole. Zimbabwean dollar my arse.
They will definitely maintain free movement for nurses (edit: and spouses!) unless they are loopy - basically the thesis of cutting immigration was always a lie, a deception to encourage people to vote out EU labour and environmental law and DG Competition, under the guise of voting out foreigners. Probably even fruit pickers will get to stay as the horticulture industry would appeal to its low margins, the death of the great British jam, etc.
Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
This is precicely the main economic case for Brexit.
Without a devaluation or imposing tarrifs, the british economy would collapse from the giant size of the twin deficits (budget and current account), in a classic balance of payments crisis.
With Brexit, the devaluation and potecial tarrifs might arrest the development of the upcoming crisis before it's too late.
It's like stopping the housing bubble in 2005 instead of allowing it to pop in 2008.
Except if we are out of the single market that temporary correction will end up leading to rapidly rising unemployment, a currency in freefall, an NHS in crisis and rising inflation
Lower sterling, better balance of payments, all nice ways to say that people in normal and low-paid jobs need to have a lower standard of living, taking a cut that doesn't apply to those in internationally-traded well-paid sectors, and hope that "we're all in this together".
The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
This is precicely the main economic case for Brexit.
Without a devaluation or imposing tarrifs, the british economy would collapse from the giant size of the twin deficits (budget and current account), in a classic balance of payments crisis.
With Brexit, the devaluation and potecial tarrifs might arrest the development of the upcoming crisis before it's too late.
It's like stopping the housing bubble in 2005 instead of allowing it to pop in 2008.
Except if we are out of the single market that temporary correction will end up leading to rapidly rising unemployment, a currency in freefall, an NHS in crisis and rising inflation
Better to level the economy now than later, when the problem becomes even more serious.
I remember the housing bubble was ready to pop in 2005, but the BOE did everything possible to keep it going, it was also an election year.
So when the bubble finally popped 3 years later, it was much larger and the crash was of historic proportions.
with expenditure overseas up 8% on the previous year and income from overseas 7% down.
Fortunately there already seems to be a beneficial effect of last month's vote on the tourism balance. There have been several reports of increased bookings in London and here is one relating to Wales:
' Wales' tourism industry is expected to reap the benefits of the vote to leave the European Union.
The weakening of the pound has increased the cost of going abroad, with many British people opting for a "staycation", companies have said.
But the favourable exchange rate has led to a surge in overseas visitors looking to holiday in the UK.
Some tourism providers in Wales have already seen a jump in bookings after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. '
Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
.
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell sign
You seem to be unable to distinguish access from membership. Everyone has access to the single market. Not everyone is a member. There are, of course, three single markets. Goods, services (incomplete) and the nascent digital version.
Many countries trade perfectly well without either membership or even an FTA. The EU has formal FTAs with just 2 out of 10 of its largest trade partners. The City would very much like to keep financial passporting of course.
In terms of value, we exported £134 billion to the EU in 2015. Its an important part of our economy, but it comprises less than half of our export trade and that ratio is falling. Three quarters of UK companies do no international trade at all.
In terms of labour movement, this can be addressed through a visa scheme, of which we have many versions. There is no particular advantage in freedom of movement to address sectorial skills shortages.
Your post is, frankly, over-hysterical hyperbole. Zimbabwean dollar my arse.
The EU comprises about 45-50% of our trade, that is more than all our trade with the BRIC economies combined. Outside the EU we will do more trade with the block as a percentage of our economy than almost any other of its trading partners and of course we would need a FTA at the very minimum given how much trade depends on it. The largest companies all trade extensively with the EU. If we start having visas that will create a huge backlog in processing for the City, companies and the NHS with damaging knock-on effects for the economy as a whole. The City would probably lose financial passporting outside the single market too.
ndeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
Out of curiosity where are mainland Europe's nurses from ?
I said when the first poll came out showing YES at around 55%, that using our experience from the last 3 referendums, in a few months time it will turn back to a NO.
Well it turned back into a NO after a single month.
At the peak of the kneejerk reaction YES could only muster 55%, that was a clear warning sign.
Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but t
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a paid professional writer but regardless a lower value of sterling would also increase imported supply costs for foreign investors into the UK which combined with Britain's lack of membership of the single market would certainly not make Britain a better place for foreign investment
with expenditure overseas up 8% on the previous year and income from overseas 7% down.
Fortunately there already seems to be a beneficial effect of last month's vote on the tourism balance. There have been several reports of increased bookings in London and here is one relating to Wales:
' Wales' tourism industry is expected to reap the benefits of the vote to leave the European Union.
The weakening of the pound has increased the cost of going abroad, with many British people opting for a "staycation", companies have said.
But the favourable exchange rate has led to a surge in overseas visitors looking to holiday in the UK.
Some tourism providers in Wales have already seen a jump in bookings after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. '
He is doing 2 rallies per day for a few days now, that's a Corbyn pace of campaigning.
It's incredible but Trump has done 20 General Election rallies, to Hillary's 10. But Hillary has done 17000 TV ads, to Trump's 0. On the other side Trump has done dozens of pressers this year, to Hillary's 0.
It's no secret that Trump loves the crowds and the attention, while Hillary avoids them.
The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
This is precicely the main economic case for Brexit.
Without a devaluation or imposing tarrifs, the british economy would collapse from the giant size of the twin deficits (budget and current account), in a classic balance of payments crisis.
With Brexit, the devaluation and potecial tarrifs might arrest the development of the upcoming crisis before it's too late.
It's like stopping the housing bubble in 2005 instead of allowing it to pop in 2008.
Except if we are out of the single market that temporary correction will end up leading to rapidly rising unemployment, a currency in freefall, an NHS in crisis and rising inflation
Better to level the economy now than later, when the problem becomes even more serious.
I remember the housing bubble was ready to pop in 2005, but the BOE did everything possible to keep it going, it was also an election year.
So when the bubble finally popped 3 years later, it was much larger and the crash was of historic proportions.
By level the economy I assume you mean literally? This is nothing like the housing bubble seeing an earlier cooling off, this would be the UK effectively putting a 'closed sign' out to many foreign investors looking to access the European market
with expenditure overseas up 8% on the previous year and income from overseas 7% down.
Fortunately there already seems to be a beneficial effect of last month's vote on the tourism balance. There have been several reports of increased bookings in London and here is one relating to Wales:
' Wales' tourism industry is expected to reap the benefits of the vote to leave the European Union.
The weakening of the pound has increased the cost of going abroad, with many British people opting for a "staycation", companies have said.
But the favourable exchange rate has led to a surge in overseas visitors looking to holiday in the UK.
Some tourism providers in Wales have already seen a jump in bookings after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. '
with expenditure overseas up 8% on the previous year and income from overseas 7% down.
Fortunately there already seems to be a beneficial effect of last month's vote on the tourism balance. There have been several reports of increased bookings in London and here is one relating to Wales:
' Wales' tourism industry is expected to reap the benefits of the vote to leave the European Union.
The weakening of the pound has increased the cost of going abroad, with many British people opting for a "staycation", companies have said.
But the favourable exchange rate has led to a surge in overseas visitors looking to holiday in the UK.
Some tourism providers in Wales have already seen a jump in bookings after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. '
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
Out of curiosity where are mainland Europe's nurses from ?
Many from Eastern Europe too
Eastern Europe is part of mainland Europe.
Now if mainland Europe can train a surplus of nurses why can't Britain train a sufficiency of them ?
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell si
Out of curiosity where are mainland Europe's nurses from ?
Many from Eastern Europe too
Eastern Europe is part of mainland Europe.
Now if mainland Europe can train a surplus of nurses why can't Britain train a sufficiency of them ?
Eastern Europeans do many lower paid jobs, particularly in the likes of social care because obviously a low wage in Britain is often an above average wage back home
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but t
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a paid professional writer but regardless a lower value of sterling would also increase imported supply costs for foreign investors into the UK which combined with Britain's lack of membership of the single market would certainly not make Britain a better place for foreign investment
Any increase in supply costs would be much less then the gain in selling prices. And that's in manufactured goods which require significant imported parts.
In agricultural and food processing products there are minimal effects regarding imported supply costs. Likewise in service sector exports.
Its also worth noting that Britain already manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries, which are also an increasing proportion of both the world economy and of British exports.
with expenditure overseas up 8% on the previous year and income from overseas 7% down.
Fortunately there already seems to be a beneficial effect of last month's vote on the tourism balance. There have been several reports of increased bookings in London and here is one relating to Wales:
' Wales' tourism industry is expected to reap the benefits of the vote to leave the European Union.
The weakening of the pound has increased the cost of going abroad, with many British people opting for a "staycation", companies have said.
But the favourable exchange rate has led to a surge in overseas visitors looking to holiday in the UK.
Some tourism providers in Wales have already seen a jump in bookings after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. '
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
The £ fell si
Out of curiosity where are mainland Europe's nurses from ?
Many from Eastern Europe too
Eastern Europe is part of mainland Europe.
Now if mainland Europe can train a surplus of nurses why can't Britain train a sufficiency of them ?
Eastern Europeans do many lower paid jobs, particularly in the likes of social care because obviously a low wage in Britain is often an above average wage back home
So why is the UK government subsidising low paid immigrants with borrowed money which is then transferred back to Eastern Europe a good idea ?
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less w
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but t
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a
Any increase in supply costs would be much less then the gain in selling prices. And that's in manufactured goods which require significant imported parts.
In agricultural and food processing products there are minimal effects regarding imported supply costs. Likewise in service sector exports.
Its also worth noting that Britain already manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries, which are also an increasing proportion of both the world economy and of British exports.
That depends entirely on how many supplied parts the business uses and the fact the UK was not a member of the single market with certain tariff free access would negate any potential gain in selling prices. Obviously too any business which needs a freely mobile supply of labour would be put of by lack of free movement into the UK. The EU is still the UK's largest export market regardless of any increase in trade elsewhere and takes more of Britain's trade than all the BRIC nations combined
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less w
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but t
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a
Any increase in supply costs would be much less then the gain in selling prices. And that's in manufactured goods which require significant imported parts.
In agricultural and food processing products there are minimal effects regarding imported supply costs. Likewise in service sector exports.
Its also worth noting that Britain already manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries, which are also an increasing proportion of both the world economy and of British exports.
That depends entirely on how many supplied parts the business uses and the fact the UK was not a member of the single market with certain tariff free access would negate any potential gain in selling prices. Obviously too any business which needs a freely mobile supply of labour would be put of by lack of free movement into the UK. The EU is still the UK's largest export market regardless of any increase in trade elsewhere and takes more of Britain's trade than all the BRIC nations combined
So basically everything is probably impossible except that without a BREXIT vote Britain could have continued to consume £100bn more wealth that it created every year for ever.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen
If the UK stays more or less w
On the contrary May may find she has no choice but t
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a
Any increase in supply costs would be much less then the gain in selling prices. And that's in manufactured goods which require significant impots.
That depends ent
So basically everything is probably impossible except that without a BREXIT vote Britain could have continued to consume £100bn more wealth that it created every year for ever.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
Goodnight.
The EU had nothing to do with the UK's consumption ratio to its production, that needs more manufacturing and increased productivity overall, including the services sector, if anything Brexit will hit that further if fewer factories get opened and some factories close down. Investors seeking to open factories in Europe and build a base in the European market will want access to the single market and will not choose the UK if that is not available.
Reuters) - A computer network used by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign was hacked as part of a broad cyber attack on Democratic political organizations, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The latest attack, which was disclosed to Reuters on Friday, follows two other hacks on the Democratic National Committee, or DNC, and the party’s fundraising committee for candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives...
Over the last three weeks, I have travelled from New York to San Francisco, meeting around a couple of dozen of my American friends, some of whom are liberal, others conservative and others indifferent. None of them support Trump, or regard him with anything other than contempt or even horror. And yet he is level in the polls with HRC nationally. Extraordinary. I think the clue is that they're all college- or higher degree-educated urban or suburban professionals?
Reuters) - A computer network used by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign was hacked as part of a broad cyber attack on Democratic political organizations, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The latest attack, which was disclosed to Reuters on Friday, follows two other hacks on the Democratic National Committee, or DNC, and the party’s fundraising committee for candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives...
Over the last three weeks, I have travelled from New York to San Francisco, meeting around a couple of dozen of my American friends, some of whom are liberal, others conservative and others indifferent. None of them support Trump, or regard him with anything other than contempt or even horror. And yet he is level in the polls with HRC nationally. Extraordinary. I think the clue is that they're all college- or higher degree-educated urban or suburban professionals?
During the referendum it was interesting how you'd have some people who had not met anyone who was voting to leave and others who had not met anyone who was voting to remain. Of course, they may well have done but not realised it.
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a
Any increase in supply costs would be much less then the gain in selling prices. And that's in manufactured goods which require significant impots.
That depends ent
So basically everything is probably impossible except that without a BREXIT vote Britain could have continued to consume £100bn more wealth that it created every year for ever.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
Goodnight.
The EU had nothing to do with the UK's consumption ratio to its production, that needs more manufacturing and increased productivity overall, including the services sector, if anything Brexit will hit that further if fewer factories get opened and some factories close down. Investors seeking to open factories in Europe and build a base in the European market will want access to the single market and will not choose the UK if that is not available.
FFS are you really going to continue the "all the car factories will close down and there will be no foreign investment" propaganda ?
We heard it in 1992 and it was wrong and we heard it in 1999 and it was wrong and we heard it before June 23 and its already being shown to be wrong.
As to trade I said Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU counties and that is correct.
Trade includes goods AND SERVICES:
' The balance of trade in services with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.4 billion between Quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 and Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016, to £16.3 billion. '
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though?
32 by-elections, barely 40,000 votes, last fought at various times in the last three years, many with main parties standing that didn't last time or not standing where they did last time or both, many with other local factors...
No. Not much at all.
Also with very low turnouts - even more so at this time of year.
Carshalton was a real contest.. Lib Dem central office threw the kitchen sink at it. They won but it was one helluva fight
Can I point out that you need to have the SeanT rhetorical style when producing this sort of hyperbole.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Unlike SeanT I am not a
Any increase in supply costs would be much less then the gain in selling prices. And that's in manufactured goods which require significant impots.
That depends ent
So basically everything is probably impossible except that without a BREXIT vote Britain could have continued to consume £100bn more wealth that it created every year for ever.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
Goodnight.
The EU had nothing to do with the UK's consumption ratio to its production, that needs more manufac
FFS are you really going to continue the "all the car factories will close down and there will be no foreign investment" propaganda ?
We heard it in 1992 and it was wrong and we heard it in 1999 and it was wrong and we heard it before June 23 and its already being shown to be wrong.
As to trade I said Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU counties and that is correct.
Trade includes goods AND SERVICES:
' The balance of trade in services with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.4 billion between Quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 and Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016, to £16.3 billion. '
Of course not every car factory will close down but some will do, with the inevitable loss of employment that will bring. The UK may have a balance of services surplus with non-EU countries but that will be hit of free movement of workers ends which will impact on the pool of labour available in financial services not to mention the overall balance of trade will get even worse as we lack of membership of the single market reduces the number of factories based in the UK producing goods for export
So basically everything is probably impossible except that without a BREXIT vote Britain could have continued to consume £100bn more wealth that it created every year for ever.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
Goodnight.
The EU had nothing to do with the UK's consumption ratio to its production, that needs more manufac
FFS are you really going to continue the "all the car factories will close down and there will be no foreign investment" propaganda ?
We heard it in 1992 and it was wrong and we heard it in 1999 and it was wrong and we heard it before June 23 and its already being shown to be wrong.
As to trade I said Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU counties and that is correct.
Trade includes goods AND SERVICES:
' The balance of trade in services with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.4 billion between Quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 and Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016, to £16.3 billion. '
Of course not every car factory will close down but some will do, with the inevitable loss of employment that will bring. The UK may have a balance of services surplus with non-EU countries but that will be hit of free movement of workers ends which will impact on the pool of labour available in financial services not to mention the overall balance of trade will get even worse as we lack of membership of the single market reduces the number of factories based in the UK producing goods for export
So you continue to spout the propaganda despite having been shown to be wrong.
Are you really trying to claim that the UK's trade in services surplus is dependent upon unlimited immigration of potato pickers and car washers ?
Perhaps you could tell us which car factories will shut down and when that will happen ?
Or maybe you could explain why the UK has such an enormous trade deficit with the EU if membership of the single market and uncontrolled immigration is so beneficial to British exports whereas without those Britain has a balance of trade surplus with non-EU countries.
So basically everything is probably impossible except that without a BREXIT vote Britain could have continued to consume £100bn more wealth that it created every year for ever.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
Goodnight.
The EU had nothing to do with the UK's consumption ratio to its production, that needs more manufac
FFS are you really going to continue the "all the car factories will close down and there will be no foreign investment" propaganda ?
We heard it in 199
Of course not every car fa
So you continue to spout the propaganda despite having been shown to be wrong.
Are you really trying to claim that the UK's trade in services surplus is dependent upon unlimited immigration of potato pickers and car washers ?
Perhaps you could tell us which car factories will shut down and when that will happen ?
Or maybe you could explain why the UK has such an enormous trade deficit with the EU if membership of the single market and uncontrolled immigration is so beneficial to British exports whereas without those Britain has a balance of trade surplus with non-EU countries.
Not shown to be wrong, the UK also had a surplus in services with the EU. The UK's trade in services is certainly dependent on financial services and the banking passport free movement provides to the City of London, lose that and some of the firms in the City will start to look at Frankfurt and Paris to be their European base.
We have already seen Tata steel looking at closing a factory in South Wales, if we are out of the single market Japanese firms like Nissan may well look at moving their operations to the continent.
The UK only has a trade deficit in goods with the EU as it does with non-EU nations, it has a services surplus with the EU as it does with non-EU nations, if we are outside the EU the City will be hit as will that services surplus and the trade deficit in goods will get even worse as factories close down too
Comments
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2014/september/tradoc_152806.pdf
Whatever it will be it will be reciprocal - you fuck me, I'll fuck you
So dragging everyone down with us then!
Their instigation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMZTE5Ruahc
Your final sentence is true, except for the claim that this would make them happy - they will never be happy.
Without a devaluation or imposing tarrifs, the british economy would collapse from the giant size of the twin deficits (budget and current account), in a classic balance of payments crisis.
With Brexit, the devaluation and potecial tarrifs might arrest the development of the upcoming crisis before it's too late.
It's like stopping the housing bubble in 2005 instead of allowing it to pop in 2008.
'Poll shows increased support for independence after Brexit'
http://tinyurl.com/zqqfd3e
Their instigation
Yes but as well as both sides suffering from a trade war the UK would suffer worse because of the loss of investment and the City would also lose from the lost free movement
Many countries trade perfectly well without either membership or even an FTA. The EU has formal FTAs with just 2 out of 10 of its largest trade partners. The City would very much like to keep financial passporting of course.
In terms of value, we exported £134 billion to the EU in 2015. Its an important part of our economy, but it comprises less than half of our export trade and that ratio is falling. Three quarters of UK companies do no international trade at all.
In terms of labour movement, this can be addressed through a visa scheme, of which we have many versions. There is no particular advantage in freedom of movement to address sectorial skills shortages.
Your post is, frankly, over-hysterical hyperbole. Zimbabwean dollar my arse.
I said when the first poll came out showing YES at around 55%, that using our experience from the last 3 referendums, in a few months time it will turn back to a NO.
Well it turned back into a NO after a single month.
At the peak of the kneejerk reaction YES could only muster 55%, that was a clear warning sign.
And BTW a lower value of sterling would make Britain a better place for foreign investment as it would make production in Britain cheaper compared with the rest of the world.
Luckybag1707 and the PB Brexitory bruderschaft: 'It's slipping away'.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/759152897602916352
I remember the housing bubble was ready to pop in 2005, but the BOE did everything possible to keep it going, it was also an election year.
So when the bubble finally popped 3 years later, it was much larger and the crash was of historic proportions.
The May tourism data was again dreadful:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/may2016
with expenditure overseas up 8% on the previous year and income from overseas 7% down.
Fortunately there already seems to be a beneficial effect of last month's vote on the tourism balance. There have been several reports of increased bookings in London and here is one relating to Wales:
' Wales' tourism industry is expected to reap the benefits of the vote to leave the European Union.
The weakening of the pound has increased the cost of going abroad, with many British people opting for a "staycation", companies have said.
But the favourable exchange rate has led to a surge in overseas visitors looking to holiday in the UK.
Some tourism providers in Wales have already seen a jump in bookings after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-36886717
Shirley not!!!!
It's incredible but Trump has done 20 General Election rallies, to Hillary's 10.
But Hillary has done 17000 TV ads, to Trump's 0.
On the other side Trump has done dozens of pressers this year, to Hillary's 0.
It's no secret that Trump loves the crowds and the attention, while Hillary avoids them.
Goodnight.
Now if mainland Europe can train a surplus of nurses why can't Britain train a sufficiency of them ?
In agricultural and food processing products there are minimal effects regarding imported supply costs. Likewise in service sector exports.
Its also worth noting that Britain already manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries, which are also an increasing proportion of both the world economy and of British exports.
So I'll ask again:
Are you saying that without BREXIT we could consume £100bn more wealth than we create every year for ever ?
BTW Tata announced the Port Talbot closure over two months before the referendum.
It must be a miracle that Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU countries without a free mobile supply of labour and without tariff free access and with the risks of a floating exchange rate.
Goodnight.
You are also wrong about a trade surplus with non-EU countries, based on April 2016 figures the UK had a £2.6 billion deficit in its balance of trade in goods with non-EU nations
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/apr2016
Trump live. Doing the snake poem again.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1092HK?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
Reuters) - A computer network used by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign was hacked as part of a broad cyber attack on Democratic political organizations, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The latest attack, which was disclosed to Reuters on Friday, follows two other hacks on the Democratic National Committee, or DNC, and the party’s fundraising committee for candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives...
Over the last three weeks, I have travelled from New York to San Francisco, meeting around a couple of dozen of my American friends, some of whom are liberal, others conservative and others indifferent. None of them support Trump, or regard him with anything other than contempt or even horror. And yet he is level in the polls with HRC nationally. Extraordinary. I think the clue is that they're all college- or higher degree-educated urban or suburban professionals?
Clue to answer for last post: you were in New York and San Francisco, what did you expect?
We heard it in 1992 and it was wrong and we heard it in 1999 and it was wrong and we heard it before June 23 and its already being shown to be wrong.
As to trade I said Britain manages a trade surplus with non-EU counties and that is correct.
Trade includes goods AND SERVICES:
' The balance of trade in services with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.4 billion between Quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 and Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016, to £16.3 billion. '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/may2016
During the same quarter the UK had a trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries of £10.8bn:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/may2016#trade-in-goods-analysis-by-area
so an overall trade surplus of £5.5bn.
Are you really trying to claim that the UK's trade in services surplus is dependent upon unlimited immigration of potato pickers and car washers ?
Perhaps you could tell us which car factories will shut down and when that will happen ?
Or maybe you could explain why the UK has such an enormous trade deficit with the EU if membership of the single market and uncontrolled immigration is so beneficial to British exports whereas without those Britain has a balance of trade surplus with non-EU countries.
We have already seen Tata steel looking at closing a factory in South Wales, if we are out of the single market Japanese firms like Nissan may well look at moving their operations to the continent.
The UK only has a trade deficit in goods with the EU as it does with non-EU nations, it has a services surplus with the EU as it does with non-EU nations, if we are outside the EU the City will be hit as will that services surplus and the trade deficit in goods will get even worse as factories close down too