Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Why? It gets rid of the detritus.
I've lived in a number of countries, and I've only encountered that sort of attitude in Britain.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Why? It gets rid of the detritus.
I've lived in a number of countries, and I've only encountered that sort of attitude in Britain.
Who knew, we're obsessed with class! (my comment was firmly tongue in cheek however)
Why don't you look it up? Lazy sod! First, the members of the Electoral College won't vote until 19 December, when the electors meet in their respective state capitals. You probably mean to ask what happens if the result of the election on 8 November is 269-269. The answer is that I imagine that for several weeks people will talk about the possibility of electors voting faithlessly: that is, otherwise than the voters in their state wanted them to.
If it's 269-269 on 19 December, or 268-265-3-2 or whatever, nothing officially happens until the votes cast by the electors get counted, which will be on 6 January at a joint session of Congress. At that time, there may be objections.
If nobody has a majority, then the House of Representatives goes into session the same day to choose the President from among the three who received the most EC votes. Each state has a single vote, and Washington DC has no vote. This is how two Presidents were elected in the 19th century. To be successful, a candidate must receive a majority, namely 26 votes out of 50. The House continues balloting until it elects someone.
A VP would be elected by the Senate, with each senator having a vote, but only the top two candidates on the ballot, not the top three. Again, a majority is needed, namely 51 votes out of 100.
The latest series of Veep went through almost every permutation possible in such circumstances.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Why? It gets rid of the detritus.
I've lived in a number of countries, and I've only encountered that sort of attitude in Britain.
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
@Dromedary - thank you very much for that response - I'll admit I think I knew roughly what should happen. But as you say, there would be such a hoo-hah if it was a tie.
Does anyone know if bookies will offer odds on a tie? If so, what should they be? 100-1?
And UKIP support is supposedly up since the GE despite them losing councillors through defection and by election losses , membership falling and real votes falling . You are correct it does not make sense .
One explanation is that the opinion polls are still optimised for the 'last battle' and haven't picked up the real change. Perhaps more likely is that 12% are still nominally UKIP but only 8% can be bothered to actually vote for them post Brexit.
For some context, do we have similar tallies of local by elections in the run up to the 2015 GE. How useful were they?
There were relatively few by elections in the run up to the 2015 GE because of the 6 month rule but generally they showed an improvement for the Conservatives from 2012-2014
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though?
32 by-elections, barely 40,000 votes, last fought at various times in the last three years, many with main parties standing that didn't last time or not standing where they did last time or both, many with other local factors...
No. Not much at all.
It shows a trend and is at least based on real votes. The most interesting part is UKIP down and losing seats, why are they not winning following their triumph in the referendum?
Post referendum and the resignation of Farage and Cameron, I am not at all surprised that UKIP are down. The only thing that could revive them is some sort of imagined Brexit Betrayal.
As well as the national LD figure, it is worth looking at geography. The LD focus teams are spending the next few years actively identifying target seats. With Labour doing a Lemming* and the shine due to rub off Mrs May there is a realistic prospect of LD gains.
*I know the story dates back to a faked 1958 Disney film.
And UKIP support is supposedly up since the GE despite them losing councillors through defection and by election losses , membership falling and real votes falling . You are correct it does not make sense .
One explanation is that the opinion polls are still optimised for the 'last battle' and haven't picked up the real change. Perhaps more likely is that 12% are still nominally UKIP but only 8% can be bothered to actually vote for them post Brexit.
UKIP have never been strong in local government, it doesn't fit their raison d'etre.
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But of course we have not reached mid-term yet . We are just approaching the end of the first quartile of this Parliament.
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But of course we have not reached mid-term yet . We are just approaching the end of the first quartile of this Parliament.
You are to knowledge of what midterm is as HYUFD is to knowledge of the Labour Party rulebook.
Well the local Tory MP who has just been on Ch4 news is going to look like a bit of a spanner when they cancel Hinckley point.
It's a dead cert?
Starting to look that way. The French do not really want to build it and the energy cost now looking a very bad deal in an era where we may have increases in the supply of energy.
I fear this may sound a little bit SeanT-ish, but I've just returned from a hectic couple of days work in Crewkerne. Stayed in the little hamlet of Hinton St George. Best meal of the year so far - pub called the Lord Poulett Arms. Best thing? The mackerel. Second best, the tawny port. Third? The fact they gave me matches for my Cuban without asking 'what for??'. Heartily recommend the place!
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But we are not in mid term , we are just under 25% of the way into a 5 year Parliament . Leaving aside the distortion caused by change in PM , we are in the period when normally those who after the election smiled and winked at a known Conservative they meet in the street , now cross the road and avert their eyes . Mid term starts next year when the same people cross the road and come up to you and smack you in the face .
@Dromedary - thank you very much for that response - I'll admit I think I knew roughly what should happen. But as you say, there would be such a hoo-hah if it was a tie.
Does anyone know if bookies will offer odds on a tie? If so, what should they be? 100-1?
Shadsy has a book open on EC votes with a tie on 269 at 50/1
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But we are not in mid term , we are just under 25% of the way into a 5 year Parliament . Leaving aside the distortion caused by change in PM , we are in the period when normally those who after the election smiled and winked at a known Conservative they meet in the street , now cross the road and avert their eyes . Mid term starts next year when the same people cross the road and come up to you and smack you in the face .
Conservatives are proud to be. They just don't have any truck with pollsters. Nothing shy about all the story voters I know...
And UKIP support is supposedly up since the GE despite them losing councillors through defection and by election losses , membership falling and real votes falling . You are correct it does not make sense .
One explanation is that the opinion polls are still optimised for the 'last battle' and haven't picked up the real change. Perhaps more likely is that 12% are still nominally UKIP but only 8% can be bothered to actually vote for them post Brexit.
How many people vote differently in local elections compared to general? I assume most voters only vote in the generals.
Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
@Dromedary - thank you very much for that response - I'll admit I think I knew roughly what should happen. But as you say, there would be such a hoo-hah if it was a tie.
Does anyone know if bookies will offer odds on a tie? If so, what should they be? 100-1?
Shadsy has a book open on EC votes with a tie on 269 at 50/1
Interesting, thanks. I don't think I'll be taking him up on that.
I think Trump could flip New Hampshire but it still isn't enough. Could be the closest election since 2000. Puts the 2020 GOP candidate in a strong position if they can appeal to the same WWC types and a few more Latinos than Trump.
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Do local council politics often feature 'crossing the floor' like that or was that unusual?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Lidl and Aldi would be filled with Leavers. Sainsburys and M and S shoppers probably Remainers, Tesco probably Leavers, Waitrose filled with wealthier shoppers who leaned Remain but older shoppers too who leaned Leave
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But we are not in mid term , we are just under 25% of the way into a 5 year Parliament . Leaving aside the distortion caused by change in PM , we are in the period when normally those who after the election smiled and winked at a known Conservative they meet in the street , now cross the road and avert their eyes . Mid term starts next year when the same people cross the road and come up to you and smack you in the face .
Since I can recall your pre-2015 forecasts of LD success I shall remain sceptical of your 'bet'. Any govt operating in the current economic climate should be being slaughtered in polls, local elections and by-elections. As it goes I would have no problem with a real LD revival in the absence of any other opposition - but even as a staunch 'remainer' their positioning on another referendum is not going to do it for them.
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But we are not in mid term , we are just under 25% of the way into a 5 year Parliament . Leaving aside the distortion caused by change in PM , we are in the period when normally those who after the election smiled and winked at a known Conservative they meet in the street , now cross the road and avert their eyes . Mid term starts next year when the same people cross the road and come up to you and smack you in the face .
Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
Summary of all 32 council by elections in July Con 10,305 25.5% down 3.0% on previous contests Lab 12,621 31.5% up 0.2% LDem 8,981 22.4% up 11.2% Green 2,571 6.4% down 1.3% UKIP 2,480 6.2% down 3.0% Plaid 1,043 2.6% up 1.2% Ind/Others 2,180 5.4% down 4.6% Seats won Con 10 Lab 8 LD 9 UKIP 1 Plaid 1 Others 3 No Scottish by elections in July
Do these figures mean that much though? Even in a month do you get any real kind of c/s?
I bet if the figures were showing the Conservatives doing very well and Labour doing very badly you would say they were very significant
Actually no - I would expect the government party to be losing lots of votes and seats mid-term - the oddity about recent years is how little anti-government swing we're seeing. I grew up in the 60's onwards.! Indeed the fact that the Tories have gained occasional seats and are ahead in the polls is far more significant than a few local by-elections.
But of course we have not reached mid-term yet . We are just approaching the end of the first quartile of this Parliament.
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Do local council politics often feature 'crossing the floor' like that or was that unusual?
Thanks for the clear answer by the way.
In that particular instance they were actually elected as an Indy rather than just crossed the floor, but I think its pretty common at county, district and unitary level when groups are fairly strong. I read of a Green leader leave his group to go Conservative in one area. Round my way the LDs have lost several crossing to indy and a couple to Con since 2013, and one of the latter occurred a month after the election!
Personally I think a lot of local politicians at such a level can be pretty loosely attached to a party, and local politics and personalities can lead to shifts quite rapidly.
(Cannot beat that French MEP who was elected under the FN and left 24 hours after the election, which enabled her to join the European group of Farage, who was not willing to ally with FN)
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Lidl and Aldi would be filled with Leavers. Sainsburys and M and S shoppers probably Remainers, Tesco probably Leavers, Waitrose filled with wealthier shoppers who leaned Remain but older shoppers too who leaned Leave
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
These half measure solutions really seem like they do more harm than good, and as such only make Corbyn stronger - it makes it seem clear they know they cannot beat him, but are too worried at damaging the brand to truly break away.
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Do local council politics often feature 'crossing the floor' like that or was that unusual?
Thanks for the clear answer by the way.
The Cornish locals in particular seem to be largely a random affair in terms of political parties - must be all that tin getting into the water supply.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Lidl and Aldi would be filled with Leavers. Sainsburys and M and S shoppers probably Remainers, Tesco probably Leavers, Waitrose filled with wealthier shoppers who leaned Remain but older shoppers too who leaned Leave
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB It's so reassuring as you are waiting in the checkout queue at Waitrose knowing that most of your fellow shoppers were REMAIN voters
Au contraire Mr Smithson, you are obviously not a natural Waitrose shopper. We're mostly unrepentant Leavers. We blame the EU for Lidl.
Lidl and Aldi would be filled with Leavers. Sainsburys and M and S shoppers probably Remainers, Tesco probably Leavers, Waitrose filled with wealthier shoppers who leaned Remain but older shoppers too who leaned Leave
Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
Tesco? You are dead to me.
Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.
P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
Compelling but there's plenty of scope for the kippers and the Tory right to get uppity when Theresa negotiates the wrong sort of Brexit. It's almost as inevitable as day following night.
Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
Tesco? You are dead to me.
Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.
P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
I jest my dear Llama, you are far too charming to be placed into my pit of Perpetual Ignorage, whence no one returns. I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
The Lib Dems have proven to be the only reliably pro-European party. Labour have always been ambivalent and Tory splits led to Cameron's strategic blunder with the referendum.
With more distance their role in the coalition also looks like a golden age in UK politics.
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
Compelling but there's plenty of scope for the kippers and the Tory right to get uppity when Theresa negotiates the wrong sort of Brexit. It's almost as inevitable as day following night.
The most likely disintegration of the kippers is if May negotiates the right kind of brexit isn't it? If she plays this right they will be even less relevant than the lib Dems come 2020
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Do local council politics often feature 'crossing the floor' like that or was that unusual?
Thanks for the clear answer by the way.
The Cornish locals in particular seem to be largely a random affair in terms of political parties - must be all that tin getting into the water supply.
Someone told me a couple of years ago the situation was so confused in Cornwall, with Con, Indy and LD being close to equal in seats, that the Conservative Group nominated an Indy for Chairman, but the Indy Group instead nominated a Tory.
I've no idea if that was the case, although random googling showed an amusing situation when they changed Leader a few years back. Looks like fun politics down there.
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
These half measure solutions really seem like they do more harm than good, and as such only make Corbyn stronger - it makes it seem clear they know they cannot beat him, but are too worried at damaging the brand to truly break away.
They know that with Corbyn in charge they lose their seat at the next election and if they lose the labour label they also lose that the next election. Given those 2 facts the only option left is to try and grab the labour label in such a way that Corbyn isn't the leader of those campaigning under the labour label.
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
Compelling but there's plenty of scope for the kippers and the Tory right to get uppity when Theresa negotiates the wrong sort of Brexit. It's almost as inevitable as day following night.
The most likely disintegration of the kippers is if May negotiates the right kind of brexit isn't it? If she plays this right they will be even less relevant than the lib Dems come 2020
It sadly depends on that little word 'right' - for the ultras it'll never be 'right'.
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
These half measure solutions really seem like they do more harm than good, and as such only make Corbyn stronger - it makes it seem clear they know they cannot beat him, but are too worried at damaging the brand to truly break away.
They know that with Corbyn in charge they lose their seat at the next election and if they lose the labour label they also lose that the next election. Given those 2 facts the only option left is to try and grab the labour label in such a way that Corbyn isn't the leader of those campaigning under the labour label.
If they have to seize the labour label by force from Corbyn and the hundreds of thousands of members who voted for him, it seems a little optimistic that they could rely on enough Labour voters, even assuming they are indeed not as taken up with Corbynism as the membership, to win them their seats against what is sure to be an alternate CorbynLabour candidate.
Frankly at this point the options seem like split for as long as Corbyn is leader, or stay quiet until the man loses and the membership might start to see reason, as his opponents see it. Yes, they might well lose their seats with both of those options too, but as an outsider it feels more honest.
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Do local council politics often feature 'crossing the floor' like that or was that unusual?
Thanks for the clear answer by the way.
The Cornish locals in particular seem to be largely a random affair in terms of political parties - must be all that tin getting into the water supply.
Someone told me a couple of years ago the situation was so confused in Cornwall, with Con, Indy and LD being close to equal in seats, that the Conservative Group nominated an Indy for Chairman, but the Indy Group instead nominated a Tory.
I've no idea if that was the case, although random googling showed an amusing situation when they changed Leader a few years back. Looks like fun politics down there.
LDems have pulled well clear of the other groups , council is now LD 43 Ind 34 Con 30 Lab 8 Meb K 4 UKIP 1 Green 1 Non aligned 1 and Vacant ( was UKIP seat ) 1 Lib Dems have an outside chance of taking outright control in next years all out elections
In that particular instance they were actually elected as an Indy rather than just crossed the floor, but I think its pretty common at county, district and unitary level when groups are fairly strong. I read of a Green leader leave his group to go Conservative in one area. Round my way the LDs have lost several crossing to indy and a couple to Con since 2013, and one of the latter occurred a month after the election!
Personally I think a lot of local politicians at such a level can be pretty loosely attached to a party, and local politics and personalities can lead to shifts quite rapidly.
(Cannot beat that French MEP who was elected under the FN and left 24 hours after the election, which enabled her to join the European group of Farage, who was not willing to ally with FN)
That's an interesting point about PR I suppose: what happens if someone elected purely because they were on a party list wants to swap to another party?
Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
Tesco? You are dead to me.
Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.
P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.
Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
about 1/3rd of the improvement is down to increased number of candidates
Is it usual that candidates are found for bye-elections when they weren't for the main event or is it a sign that the party are doing better?
No idea, but I'd guess it would be usual, as sometimes a candidate might not have been put up for a reason - in one of the LD gains the seat had been held by a LD for 20+ years who had gone Indy, so its probable there was no LD candidate at the main event as they didn't want to risk splitting the vote with little chance of beating the incumbent but a higher chance of potentially letting the Con in through the middle (a Con who, as it happens, stood for the LDs this time), when in a by-election without the long term incumbent a better chance of winning a former LD seat without as much risk.
Do local council politics often feature 'crossing the floor' like that or was that unusual?
Thanks for the clear answer by the way.
The Cornish locals in particular seem to be largely a random affair in terms of political parties - must be all that tin getting into the water supply.
Someone told me a couple of years ago the situation was so confused in Cornwall, with Con, Indy and LD being close to equal in seats, that the Conservative Group nominated an Indy for Chairman, but the Indy Group instead nominated a Tory.
I've no idea if that was the case, although random googling showed an amusing situation when they changed Leader a few years back. Looks like fun politics down there.
LDems have pulled well clear of the other groups , council is now LD 43 Ind 34 Con 30 Lab 8 Meb K 4 UKIP 1 Green 1 Non aligned 1 and Vacant ( was UKIP seat ) 1 Lib Dems have an outside chance of taking outright control in next years all out elections
Labour still riding high then? They used to be on 1 or even 0 down there - scope for the LDs to take a bunch off them at the next locals?
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
Compelling but there's plenty of scope for the kippers and the Tory right to get uppity when Theresa negotiates the wrong sort of Brexit. It's almost as inevitable as day following night.
The most likely disintegration of the kippers is if May negotiates the right kind of brexit isn't it? If she plays this right they will be even less relevant than the lib Dems come 2020
It sadly depends on that little word 'right' - for the ultras it'll never be 'right'.
Perhaps so.
As long as she plays a straight bat and doesn't try to leave without leaving I think most kipper flirters will be satisfied.
A Cameron style 'renegotiation' would keep the kipper flame burning, I reckon she knows that.
In that particular instance they were actually elected as an Indy rather than just crossed the floor, but I think its pretty common at county, district and unitary level when groups are fairly strong. I read of a Green leader leave his group to go Conservative in one area. Round my way the LDs have lost several crossing to indy and a couple to Con since 2013, and one of the latter occurred a month after the election!
Personally I think a lot of local politicians at such a level can be pretty loosely attached to a party, and local politics and personalities can lead to shifts quite rapidly.
(Cannot beat that French MEP who was elected under the FN and left 24 hours after the election, which enabled her to join the European group of Farage, who was not willing to ally with FN)
That's an interesting point about PR I suppose: what happens if someone elected purely because they were on a party list wants to swap to another party?
They can, I presume. All systems have downsides, that presumably is the big one there, the names on the list and order of the list are up to the parties, and if they make a bad judgement about the loyalty of someone and they defect that's their own fault I guess.
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
Compelling but there's plenty of scope for the kippers and the Tory right to get uppity when Theresa negotiates the wrong sort of Brexit. It's almost as inevitable as day following night.
The most likely disintegration of the kippers is if May negotiates the right kind of brexit isn't it? If she plays this right they will be even less relevant than the lib Dems come 2020
It sadly depends on that little word 'right' - for the ultras it'll never be 'right'.
Perhaps so.
As long as she plays a straight bat and doesn't try to leave without leaving I think most kipper flirters will be satisfied.
A Cameron style 'renegotiation' would keep the kipper flame burning, I reckon she knows that.
It's why I think those hoping for a relatively soft Brexit will be left wanting - May will not want to suffer 4 years of suffering thanks to a slim majority, and the UltraLeavers are more likely to serially rebel than the ULtraRemainers.
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
These half measure solutions really seem like they do more harm than good, and as such only make Corbyn stronger - it makes it seem clear they know they cannot beat him, but are too worried at damaging the brand to truly break away.
They know that with Corbyn in charge they lose their seat at the next election and if they lose the labour label they also lose that the next election. Given those 2 facts the only option left is to try and grab the labour label in such a way that Corbyn isn't the leader of those campaigning under the labour label.
If they have to seize the labour label by force from Corbyn and the hundreds of thousands of members who voted for him, it seems a little optimistic that they could rely on enough Labour voters, even assuming they are indeed not as taken up with Corbynism as the membership, to win them their seats against what is sure to be an alternate CorbynLabour candidate.
Frankly at this point the options seem like split for as long as Corbyn is leader, or stay quiet until the man loses and the membership might start to see reason, as his opponents see it. Yes, they might well lose their seats with both of those options too, but as an outsider it feels more honest.
We end up back at the total failure of each layer of labour being related to the one above it. Corbyn has support (of some form) from the members. In theory the plp has the support of the voters. While I would agree that the plp really does need to either keep quiet or walk away you can see why they think they need the name - not that it's theirs to grab it belongs to the members as a whole
Ukip achieved the whole point of their existence and could disband having changed the course of UK history
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
Compelling but there's plenty of scope for the kippers and the Tory right to get uppity when Theresa negotiates the wrong sort of Brexit. It's almost as inevitable as day following night.
The most likely disintegration of the kippers is if May negotiates the right kind of brexit isn't it? If she plays this right they will be even less relevant than the lib Dems come 2020
It sadly depends on that little word 'right' - for the ultras it'll never be 'right'.
Perhaps so.
As long as she plays a straight bat and doesn't try to leave without leaving I think most kipper flirters will be satisfied.
A Cameron style 'renegotiation' would keep the kipper flame burning, I reckon she knows that.
I think Trump could flip New Hampshire but it still isn't enough. Could be the closest election since 2000. Puts the 2020 GOP candidate in a strong position if they can appeal to the same WWC types and a few more Latinos than Trump.
If Trump loses this year Cruz will most likely be the 2020 candidate which should see a bigger Hillary win as he will turn off WWC voters and independents even if he does a little better than Trump with Latinos and evangelicals
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
These half measure solutions really seem like they do more harm than good, and as such only make Corbyn stronger - it makes it seem clear they know they cannot beat him, but are too worried at damaging the brand to truly break away.
They know that with Corbyn in charge they lose their seat at the next election and if they lose the labour label they also lose that the next election. Given those 2 facts the only option left is to try and grab the labour label in such a way that Corbyn isn't the leader of those campaigning under the labour label.
If they have to seize the labour label by force from Corbyn and the hundreds of thousands of members who voted for him, it seems a little optimistic that they could rely on enough Labour voters, even assuming they are indeed not as taken up with Corbynism as the membership, to win them their seats against what is sure to be an alternate CorbynLabour candidate.
Frankly at this point the options seem like split for as long as Corbyn is leader, or stay quiet until the man loses and the membership might start to see reason, as his opponents see it. Yes, they might well lose their seats with both of those options too, but as an outsider it feels more honest.
We end up back at the total failure of each layer of labour being related to the one above it. Corbyn has support (of some form) from the members. In theory the plp has the support of the voters. While I would agree that the plp really does need to either keep quiet or walk away you can see why they think they need the name - not that it's theirs to grab it belongs to the members as a whole
They have an emotional need for the name, and it helps with the practicalities, but it just seems so unrealistic. But listening to that speech from Kinnock to the PLP a couple of weeks ago, so angry at having to fight the same battle again, so emotional about not going anywhere from the party he's been in for 60 years, I can see why most, perhaps all, just cannot face up to the two starker choices that are more realistic.
"Senior Labour rebels are so convinced that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership contest that they are planning to elect their own leader and launch a legal challenge for the party's name. Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
These half measure solutions really seem like they do more harm than good, and as such only make Corbyn stronger - it makes it seem clear they know they cannot beat him, but are too worried at damaging the brand to truly break away.
They know that with Corbyn in charge they lose their seat at the next election and if they lose the labour label they also lose that the next election. Given those 2 facts the only option left is to try and grab the labour label in such a way that Corbyn isn't the leader of those campaigning under the labour label.
Bob Hope preparing for his gunfight in Paleface comes to mind. I couldn't find a clip.
Disappointed that there's no candle holder, but otherwise, a must have.
There are nicer versions which do have a candle holder.
You mean for the coming age of power cuts post Hinckley point?
Only if you enjoy lingering in cold baths!
I have to report that one is now in my Amazon basket.
I was impressed by the advert which stated,
"... holds all your books/ ipad/ phone/ ashtray/ wine glass/ soap/ razor/ towel/ bath ball ."
I will confess to reading in the bath many years ago, and Herself would sometime take a large vodka and tonic into her hour long sessions, but smoking or shaving in the bath, nah. And what the heck is a bath ball?
Aha, I see people are waking up to the threat. They have become a troll nation, trying to stir unrest in other countries to cover up their own rancid heart.
I think Trump could flip New Hampshire but it still isn't enough. Could be the closest election since 2000. Puts the 2020 GOP candidate in a strong position if they can appeal to the same WWC types and a few more Latinos than Trump.
If Trump loses this year Cruz will most likely be the 2020 candidate which should see a bigger Hillary win as he will turn off WWC voters and independents even if he does a little better than Trump with Latinos and evangelicals
If Trump loses this they will have to go back to the drawing board.
Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
I think Trump could flip New Hampshire but it still isn't enough. Could be the closest election since 2000. Puts the 2020 GOP candidate in a strong position if they can appeal to the same WWC types and a few more Latinos than Trump.
If Trump loses this year Cruz will most likely be the 2020 candidate which should see a bigger Hillary win as he will turn off WWC voters and independents even if he does a little better than Trump with Latinos and evangelicals
If Trump loses this they will have to go back to the drawing board.
Who? The establishment who could not even get a candidate in the top 2 this year?
No the base has control of the party for now and if Trump loses it will be because he was too socially liberal in their view and not conservative enough, hence they will go for Cruz in 2020. Only once they lose on both an anti immigration platform and a socially conservative platform will the GOP electorate be prepared to pick a more moderate candidate (perhaps George P Bush in 2024)
Disappointed that there's no candle holder, but otherwise, a must have.
There are nicer versions which do have a candle holder.
You mean for the coming age of power cuts post Hinckley point?
Only if you enjoy lingering in cold baths!
I have to report that one is now in my Amazon basket.
I was impressed by the advert which stated,
"... holds all your books/ ipad/ phone/ ashtray/ wine glass/ soap/ razor/ towel/ bath ball ."
I will confess to reading in the bath many years ago, and Herself would sometime take a large vodka and tonic into her hour long sessions, but smoking or shaving in the bath, nah. And what the heck is a bath ball?
I often live like a Roman. Luxuriating in the bath, reading, surfing the net or on the phone are great pleasures during a prolonged soak.
In a hot steamy climate, my favourite is an Indonesian style mandi wash. Cold water in a large ceramic jar, kept cool by evaporation through the walls of the jar, and a large ladle to pour it over oneself. It seems a bit odd at first, but very refreshing in the hot sticky heat of the tropics, particularly when living without A/C or electricity, but not so suited to our temperate climate.
We've now had around 36 hours without any barbaric incidents. Fingers crossed.
*Edit* Only one bank 'failed' the ECB stress test, though they're using a pretty gentle definition of 'stress'. Goodish news.
The usual whitewash
The ECB stress tests are actually pretty rigorous, what is lazy is the media division into 'pass and fail' - and in particular the use of 0% as the mark. Truth be told: any bank that falls below (say) 5% tier one in the stress scenario probably should raise capital. And, realistically, I think that is what will happen following these tests.
It's heartening that BMPS - who did least well in the tests - is offloading EUR10bn of bad debts and raising EUR5bn of new capital immediately after the tests.
I think Trump could flip New Hampshire but it still isn't enough. Could be the closest election since 2000. Puts the 2020 GOP candidate in a strong position if they can appeal to the same WWC types and a few more Latinos than Trump.
If Trump loses this year Cruz will most likely be the 2020 candidate which should see a bigger Hillary win as he will turn off WWC voters and independents even if he does a little better than Trump with Latinos and evangelicals
If Trump loses this they will have to go back to the drawing board.
Who? The establishment who could not even get a candidate in the top 2 this year?
No the base has control of the party for now and if Trump loses it will be because he was too socially liberal in their view and not conservative enough, hence they will go for Cruz in 2020. Only once they lose on both an anti immigration platform and a socially conservative platform will the GOP electorate be prepared to pick a more moderate candidate (perhaps George P Bush in 2024)
We've now had around 36 hours without any barbaric incidents. Fingers crossed.
*Edit* Only one bank 'failed' the ECB stress test, though they're using a pretty gentle definition of 'stress'. Goodish news.
The usual whitewash
The ECB stress tests are actually pretty rigorous, what is lazy is the media division into 'pass and fail' - and in particular the use of 0% as the mark. Truth be told: any bank that falls below (say) 5% tier one in the stress scenario probably should raise capital. And, realistically, I think that is what will happen following these tests.
It's heartening that BMPS - who did least well in the tests - is offloading EUR10bn of bad debts and raising EUR5bn of new capital immediately after the tests.
Comments
It's close, but I think Trump will edge it...
http://www.270towin.com/maps/zwNg8
Does anyone know if bookies will offer odds on a tie? If so, what should they be? 100-1?
DC too close to call ....
http://www.270towin.com/
As well as the national LD figure, it is worth looking at geography. The LD focus teams are spending the next few years actively identifying target seats. With Labour doing a Lemming* and the shine due to rub off Mrs May there is a realistic prospect of LD gains.
*I know the story dates back to a faked 1958 Disney film.
I am currently figuring Hillary on about 310+
Any output from your Supersized ARSE4 USA yet?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/benefits-name-could-be-dropped-from-new-scots-social-security-system-1-4189670
Thanks for the clear answer by the way.
F&M voted leave
Leading moderates have told The Telegraph they are looking at plans to set up their own “alternative Labour” in a “semi-split” of the party if Mr Corbyn remains in post."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/labour-rebels-plan-to-elect-own-leader-and-create-alternative-gr/
https://www.amazon.co.uk/TOP-MAX-Adjustable-Extendable-Bathroom-Storage/dp/B017R4VY1A/ref=sr_1_3?s=kitchen&ie=UTF8&qid=1469822417&sr=1-3&keywords=bath+tray
Or perhaps you meant "first quarter"...
Personally I think a lot of local politicians at such a level can be pretty loosely attached to a party, and local politics and personalities can lead to shifts quite rapidly.
(Cannot beat that French MEP who was elected under the FN and left 24 hours after the election, which enabled her to join the European group of Farage, who was not willing to ally with FN)
The Tories are in power and on course for a 100 seat majority
The SNP control Scotland and have 95% of MPs
But the big winners are the Lib Dems who are irrelevant in the commons and lost the argument in the ref?
P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
With more distance their role in the coalition also looks like a golden age in UK politics.
I've no idea if that was the case, although random googling showed an amusing situation when they changed Leader a few years back. Looks like fun politics down there.
https://juderobinson.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/cornwall-council-changes-leader/
I have to report that one is now in my Amazon basket.
*Edit* Only one bank 'failed' the ECB stress test, though they're using a pretty gentle definition of 'stress'. Goodish news.
Frankly at this point the options seem like split for as long as Corbyn is leader, or stay quiet until the man loses and the membership might start to see reason, as his opponents see it. Yes, they might well lose their seats with both of those options too, but as an outsider it feels more honest.
Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/759118333526564866
As long as she plays a straight bat and doesn't try to leave without leaving I think most kipper flirters will be satisfied.
A Cameron style 'renegotiation' would keep the kipper flame burning, I reckon she knows that.
"... holds all your books/ ipad/ phone/ ashtray/ wine glass/ soap/ razor/ towel/ bath ball ."
I will confess to reading in the bath many years ago, and Herself would sometime take a large vodka and tonic into her hour long sessions, but smoking or shaving in the bath, nah. And what the heck is a bath ball?
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/759126882273071104
Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
No the base has control of the party for now and if Trump loses it will be because he was too socially liberal in their view and not conservative enough, hence they will go for Cruz in 2020.
Only once they lose on both an anti immigration platform and a socially conservative platform will the GOP electorate be prepared to pick a more moderate candidate (perhaps George P Bush in 2024)
In a hot steamy climate, my favourite is an Indonesian style mandi wash. Cold water in a large ceramic jar, kept cool by evaporation through the walls of the jar, and a large ladle to pour it over oneself. It seems a bit odd at first, but very refreshing in the hot sticky heat of the tropics, particularly when living without A/C or electricity, but not so suited to our temperate climate.
It's heartening that BMPS - who did least well in the tests - is offloading EUR10bn of bad debts and raising EUR5bn of new capital immediately after the tests.