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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs winning streak continues in the latest round of loc

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  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    John_M said:
    Any idea the pollster?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    How is Thomas at catching moles? My feline has only caught the one, preferring voles, mice and rabbits. I point her at the molehills in my lawn in vain and have resorted to planting wild garlic to drive the little blighters away.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    A small hurrah for the LibDems.
    I think we need to move away from bi-polar politics.
    That is all.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:
    Keyword is 'marginally'. I hope it is so, but like so many other things a lot will depend on how things play out with article 50.

    Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
    Would she go for it if it were marginal though? Another loss and that's it surely.

    Depends how they read the tea leaves - the EU exit will surely provide moments of opportunity where Indy tensions could rise and be seized, and last time they got to 45% when they were polling less than that previously, so do they think starting at marginally over or under 50% would lead to a win at the end of a grueling campaign, or do they think they might trip up and, as you say, probably settle the question for a long time if they lose.

    I think the temptation to try will be immense for them, and there will be moments when the polls seem to favour it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    Hillary beats Trump in every G20 country outside the US except Russia where Trump leads Hillary, Mexico gives her her biggest lead
    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/758968251355271168
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:
    Keyword is 'marginally'. I hope it is so, but like so many other things a lot will depend on how things play out with article 50.

    Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
    Would she go for it if it were marginal though? Another loss and that's it surely.

    Depends how they read the tea leaves - the EU exit will surely provide moments of opportunity where Indy tensions could rise and be seized, and last time they got to 45% when they were polling less than that previously, so do they think starting at marginally over or under 50% would lead to a win at the end of a grueling campaign, or do they think they might trip up and, as you say, probably settle the question for a long time if they lose.

    I think the temptation to try will be immense for them, and there will be moments when the polls seem to favour it.
    About 85% of Scotland's exports are to either England or the RoW. I'm the first to say that it isn't all about money, but it's a big hill to climb.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Parents are seeking legal advice in bid to get compensation for named person intrusion into their family lives after the UK’s highest court ruled the Scottish Government’s controversial scheme was unlawful.

    Anti-named persons campaigners claim people from areas of Scotland where the scheme is already up and running have contacted them and are considering legal action following the UK Supreme Court judgement.

    The No to Named Persons (NO2NP) campaign estimates the legal actions could amount to a multi-million sum after five senior judges ruled that the scheme risked breaching Article 8 of the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR).


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/parents-seek-compensation-over-named-person-legislation-1-4189422
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my forecast: it's pretty knife edge, but Hillary takes the Presidency: http://www.270towin.com/maps/OL3NJ

    Pretty much what I have although I think Florida, NH and Colorado could easily flip to Donald.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,118

    kle4 said:



    In that particular instance they were actually elected as an Indy rather than just crossed the floor, but I think its pretty common at county, district and unitary level when groups are fairly strong. I read of a Green leader leave his group to go Conservative in one area. Round my way the LDs have lost several crossing to indy and a couple to Con since 2013, and one of the latter occurred a month after the election!

    Personally I think a lot of local politicians at such a level can be pretty loosely attached to a party, and local politics and personalities can lead to shifts quite rapidly.

    (Cannot beat that French MEP who was elected under the FN and left 24 hours after the election, which enabled her to join the European group of Farage, who was not willing to ally with FN)

    That's an interesting point about PR I suppose: what happens if someone elected purely because they were on a party list wants to swap to another party?

    I don't see why that is any different from someone elected on a party ticket under any system, who wishes to change sides? Even in a list system, you are in theory voting for the individuals on the list, rather than the party, even though in practice most people choose the party (as they do under FPTP).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,777
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:

    We've now had around 36 hours without any barbaric incidents. Fingers crossed.

    *Edit* Only one bank 'failed' the ECB stress test, though they're using a pretty gentle definition of 'stress'. Goodish news.

    The usual whitewash
    The ECB stress tests are actually pretty rigorous, what is lazy is the media division into 'pass and fail' - and in particular the use of 0% as the mark. Truth be told: any bank that falls below (say) 5% tier one in the stress scenario probably should raise capital. And, realistically, I think that is what will happen following these tests.

    It's heartening that BMPS - who did least well in the tests - is offloading EUR10bn of bad debts and raising EUR5bn of new capital immediately after the tests.
    That's still just can kicking.
    BMPS isn't that big, and Italians don't owe that much money. (People talk about it as Italy's third largest lender, but in the UK, a balance sheet of 45 billion quid would make you about twelfth - and about 5% of the size of number one.)

    And all banking is - ultimately - just can kicking. The entire UK banking sector was technically bust for most of the 1980s, as loans to LatAm were not being paid.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:
    Keyword is 'marginally'. I hope it is so, but like so many other things a lot will depend on how things play out with article 50.

    Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
    Would she go for it if it were marginal though? Another loss and that's it surely.

    Depends how they read the tea leaves - the EU exit will surely provide moments of opportunity where Indy tensions could rise and be seized, and last time they got to 45% when they were polling less than that previously, so do they think starting at marginally over or under 50% would lead to a win at the end of a grueling campaign, or do they think they might trip up and, as you say, probably settle the question for a long time if they lose.

    I think the temptation to try will be immense for them, and there will be moments when the polls seem to favour it.
    About 85% of Scotland's exports are to either England or the RoW. I'm the first to say that it isn't all about money, but it's a big hill to climb.
    It's an extra 5% swing from last time, presuming the same turnout (which if Union supporters are less effusive following the EU business, may be so). I am admittedly very pessimistic on this issue, but it's not as big a shift that is needed as it seems - the economic case was made last time and Yes got 45%. Can an extra 5% decide either that case is wrong, or that going Indy is worth the price?
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:
    Keyword is 'marginally'. I hope it is so, but like so many other things a lot will depend on how things play out with article 50.

    Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
    Would she go for it if it were marginal though? Another loss and that's it surely.

    Depends how they read the tea leaves - the EU exit will surely provide moments of opportunity where Indy tensions could rise and be seized, and last time they got to 45% when they were polling less than that previously, so do they think starting at marginally over or under 50% would lead to a win at the end of a grueling campaign, or do they think they might trip up and, as you say, probably settle the question for a long time if they lose.

    I think the temptation to try will be immense for them, and there will be moments when the polls seem to favour it.
    If not now, when must be a consideration.

  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2016
    Our fiercest cat was "Bo Diddley", a middle sized ginger.
    He would "have" interlopers with deadly focus, but was absolutely soft with us, except if one tried to take a kill away from him.
    My local cycle shop had a similar ginger cat, but, so I was told, it attacked a car's wheel and came off second best.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    I generally don't go buying useless tat, but every so often there's something without which life is not complete:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/TOP-MAX-Adjustable-Extendable-Bathroom-Storage/dp/B017R4VY1A/ref=sr_1_3?s=kitchen&ie=UTF8&qid=1469822417&sr=1-3&keywords=bath+tray

    Disappointed that there's no candle holder, but otherwise, a must have.
    There are nicer versions which do have a candle holder.

    You mean for the coming age of power cuts post Hinckley point?
    Only if you enjoy lingering in cold baths!

    I have to report that one is now in my Amazon basket.
    I was impressed by the advert which stated,

    "... holds all your books/ ipad/ phone/ ashtray/ wine glass/ soap/ razor/ towel/ bath ball ."

    I will confess to reading in the bath many years ago, and Herself would sometime take a large vodka and tonic into her hour long sessions, but smoking or shaving in the bath, nah. And what the heck is a bath ball?
    I often live like a Roman. Luxuriating in the bath, reading, surfing the net or on the phone are great pleasures during a prolonged soak.

    In a hot steamy climate, my favourite is an Indonesian style mandi wash. Cold water in a large ceramic jar, kept cool by evaporation through the walls of the jar, and a large ladle to pour it over oneself. It seems a bit odd at first, but very refreshing in the hot sticky heat of the tropics, particularly when living without A/C or electricity, but not so suited to our temperate climate.
    Golly. I shall tell Herself about a mandi wash. Given the length of time she stays in the bath and the temperature of the room when she finally comes out she might find it interesting.

    We are currently having our main bathroom re-done. The new version will have a five foot tall independently controlled electric towel rail, as well as improvements to the heating and hot water systems. I fear once the work is finished she may spend even longer in there.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's my forecast: it's pretty knife edge, but Hillary takes the Presidency: http://www.270towin.com/maps/OL3NJ

    Pretty much what I have although I think Florida, NH and Colorado could easily flip to Donald.
    Trump presently leads in Florida by 0.3% with RCP, Clinton in NH by 3.7% and in Colorado by 8%. Nationally it is exactly tied 44.3% each.
    In order of 2012 Obama states likely to switch to Trump RCP has it 1 Nevada 2 Florida 3 Iowa 4 Ohio 5 NH 6 Pennsylvania 7 Michigan 8 Virginia 9 Wisconsin 10 Colorado

    Hillary also has small average leads in 2 2012 Romney states, NC and Arizona
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,123
    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:
    Keyword is 'marginally'. I hope it is so, but like so many other things a lot will depend on how things play out with article 50.

    Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
    Would she go for it if it were marginal though? Another loss and that's it surely.

    Depends how they read the tea leaves - the EU exit will surely provide moments of opportunity where Indy tensions could rise and be seized, and last time they got to 45% when they were polling less than that previously, so do they think starting at marginally over or under 50% would lead to a win at the end of a grueling campaign, or do they think they might trip up and, as you say, probably settle the question for a long time if they lose.

    I think the temptation to try will be immense for them, and there will be moments when the polls seem to favour it.
    About 85% of Scotland's exports are to either England or the RoW. I'm the first to say that it isn't all about money, but it's a big hill to climb.
    It's an extra 5% swing from last time, presuming the same turnout (which if Union supporters are less effusive following the EU business, may be so). I am admittedly very pessimistic on this issue, but it's not as big a shift that is needed as it seems - the economic case was made last time and Yes got 45%. Can an extra 5% decide either that case is wrong, or that going Indy is worth the price?
    Independence isn't sensible. But then, Brexit wasn't sensible but we still voted for it.

    Funnily enough, fatigue may save the Union. We have been arguing about the Constitution non-stop since 2012, a subject that isn't of compelling interest to most people, even if they think it should be important. At some point have to get on with your life.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    I generally don't go buying useless tat, but every so often there's something without which life is not complete:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/TOP-MAX-Adjustable-Extendable-Bathroom-Storage/dp/B017R4VY1A/ref=sr_1_3?s=kitchen&ie=UTF8&qid=1469822417&sr=1-3&keywords=bath+tray

    Disappointed that there's no candle holder, but otherwise, a must have.
    There are nicer versions which do have a candle holder.

    You mean for the coming age of power cuts post Hinckley point?
    Only if you enjoy lingering in cold baths!

    I have to report that one is now in my Amazon basket.
    I was
    I often live like a Roman. Luxuriating in the bath, reading, surfing the net or on the phone are great pleasures during a prolonged soak.

    In a hot steamy climate, my favourite is an Indonesian style mandi wash. Cold water in a large ceramic jar, kept cool by evaporation through the walls of the jar, and a large ladle to pour it over oneself. It seems a bit odd at first, but very refreshing in the hot sticky heat of the tropics, particularly when living without A/C or electricity, but not so suited to our temperate climate.
    Golly. I shall tell Herself about a mandi wash. Given the length of time she stays in the bath and the temperature of the room when she finally comes out she might find it interesting.

    We are currently having our main bathroom re-done. The new version will have a five foot tall independently controlled electric towel rail, as well as improvements to the heating and hot water systems. I fear once the work is finished she may spend even longer in there.
    For truly lingering baths I would recommend side taps as it is easier to hang your feet over the end when over heating. It would make the gadget more difficult to use though.

    While traditional cast Iron enamel baths have a certain style, the water does cool more quickly. Plastic baths can be annoyingly flexible though keeping the water warm for longer. The key is to get them fitted by someone who understands the issue and fits a proper metal cradle and fine tunes it.

    A lifetime of experience!

    A mandi is best suited to a hot climate with ambient temperature of 35 or so, and is very economical of water too, which is often an issue in rural areas in africa that are off grid.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,123
    John_M said:

    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?

    Russia is arguably the biggest terrorist right now in terms of innocents killed.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?

    Russia is arguably the biggest terrorist right now in terms of innocents killed.
    War is war. The Russians know that wars are won by the most ruthless.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:

    We've now had around 36 hours without any barbaric incidents. Fingers crossed.

    *Edit* Only one bank 'failed' the ECB stress test, though they're using a pretty gentle definition of 'stress'. Goodish news.

    The usual whitewash
    The ECB stress tests are actually pretty rigorous, what is lazy is the media division into 'pass and fail' - and in particular the use of 0% as the mark. Truth be told: any bank that falls below (say) 5% tier one in the stress scenario probably should raise capital. And, realistically, I think that is what will happen following these tests.

    It's heartening that BMPS - who did least well in the tests - is offloading EUR10bn of bad debts and raising EUR5bn of new capital immediately after the tests.
    That's still just can kicking.
    Islamic Finance!
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    How is Thomas at catching moles? My feline has only caught the one, preferring voles, mice and rabbits. I point her at the molehills in my lawn in vain and have resorted to planting wild garlic to drive the little blighters away.
    I think Thomas is very good at keeping moles out of the garden. At least we have not had any sign of moles since he arrived. The same can be said of voles, mice, rats, foxes and elves. The last being the most important.

    Seriously, just ask Morris_Dancer, gent of this parish. Elves are complete and utter bastards and once they get into a garden then fairly soon they will get into the house and then there is no hope of a quiet life. Fortunately elves are terrified of cats and cats hate elves. So having a well balanced and well fed moggie roaming the house and grounds keeps them away.

    In thirty odd years of marriage we have always had at least one cat about the place and we have never been troubled by elves or rats, mice, voles, moles, foxes. There is a squirrel that keeps raiding our bird feeders though - Thomas ignores it, I laugh at it, only Herself gets cross, maybe she should string up some garlic to drive it away.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    Two of our doggies just earned their keep killing a groundhog in the back field during our daily perambulations.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,065
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:
    Keyword is 'marginally'. I hope it is so, but like so many other things a lot will depend on how things play out with article 50.

    Besides, surely Nicola will only read The National?
    All the cool kids read PB. We're like the intelligent end of Twitter. Well, mostly.
    "We must be SAD! Literally SAD!"
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    HYUFD said:

    Hillary beats Trump in every G20 country outside the US except Russia where Trump leads Hillary, Mexico gives her her biggest lead
    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/758968251355271168

    I think it's funny and/or disturbing that Chinese citizens can be polled by YouGov on who they would vote for as President of the USA, but polling on who should be President of China is a rather different matter - even saying that there should be the right to be polled on the matter will get you in prison!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,065
    John_M said:
    "Named persons" scheme mooted by UK government to "supervise" all SNP politicians and activists!
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited July 2016


    I was impressed by the advert which stated,

    "... holds all your books/ ipad/ phone/ ashtray/ wine glass/ soap/ razor/ towel/ bath ball ."

    I will confess to reading in the bath many years ago, and Herself would sometime take a large vodka and tonic into her hour long sessions, but smoking or shaving in the bath, nah. And what the heck is a bath ball?

    I often live like a Roman. Luxuriating in the bath, reading, surfing the net or on the phone are great pleasures during a prolonged soak.

    In a hot steamy climate, my favourite is an Indonesian style mandi wash. Cold water in a large ceramic jar, kept cool by evaporation through the walls of the jar, and a large ladle to pour it over oneself. It seems a bit odd at first, but very refreshing in the hot sticky heat of the tropics, particularly when living without A/C or electricity, but not so suited to our temperate climate.
    What am I walking in on here.....?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary beats Trump in every G20 country outside the US except Russia where Trump leads Hillary, Mexico gives her her biggest lead
    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/758968251355271168

    I think it's funny and/or disturbing that Chinese citizens can be polled by YouGov on who they would vote for as President of the USA, but polling on who should be President of China is a rather different matter - even saying that there should be the right to be polled on the matter will get you in prison!
    Yes, of those G20 countries only China and Saudi Arabia (and arguably Russia and Turkey) do not have free and fair elections in the 21st century. It cannot be that long before the growing Chinese middle class starts to demand the same choice in electing its government it now has in choosing what goods to buy
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The Bowie tribute on BBC4 is an utter travesty - awful.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?

    Russia is arguably the biggest terrorist right now in terms of innocents killed.
    War is war. The Russians know that wars are won by the most ruthless.
    Hitler was pretty ruthless.
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    John_M said:
    "Named persons" scheme mooted by UK government to "supervise" all SNP politicians and activists!
    May to look after Nicola!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,517
    runnymede said:

    The Bowie tribute on BBC4 is an utter travesty - awful.

    I misread that as "Brown tribute". Time for bed I think.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,065
    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?

    Russia is arguably the biggest terrorist right now in terms of innocents killed.
    War is war. The Russians know that wars are won by the most ruthless.
    Hitler was pretty ruthless.
    But not as ruthless as the Allies - why we won...
  • Options
    *Betting Post*
    Marnie for CBB @ 5/1 on Betfair looks a bit of value.
    Geordie Shore bods have done quite well on other reality shows in the last couple of years. Charlotte, Vicky and Scotty T have all been winners.
    As PfP says DYOR.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited July 2016
    MTimT said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    Two of our doggies just earned their keep killing a groundhog in the back field during our daily perambulations.
    Good for them Mr.T, though I confess I have no idea what a groundhog is.

    However, on this site you, perhaps, need to be careful about admitting your dogs killed something. A bit too close to hunting with hounds, don't you know, and lots of people get very upset about that.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    edited July 2016
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    MTimT said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    Two of our doggies just earned their keep killing a groundhog in the back field during our daily perambulations.
    Good for them Mr.T, though I confess I have no idea what a groundhog is.

    However, on this site you, perhaps, need to be careful about admitting you dogs killed something. A bit too close to hunting with hounds, don't you know and lots of people get very upset about that.
    We've a free pass now. Lefties thought that Byron Burger were wrong to obey the law. Sauce for the goose etc. - hunt away.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May will find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    I imagine you believe in fairies as well, no?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,204
    Now the FBI are investigating a new hack of the Clinton campaign...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?

    Russia is arguably the biggest terrorist right now in terms of innocents killed.
    War is war. The Russians know that wars are won by the most ruthless.
    Hitler was pretty ruthless.
    Stalin even more so.

    Curtis LeMay and Patton too.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May will find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    I imagine you believe in fairies as well, no?
    No, that is the most likely option, already the EU has already offered the UK a suspension of free movement and a deal is set to be done with Switzerland on some free movement controls. If no deal is done we face a recession in the UK, perhaps even worse than that of 2008
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Looks like the Septics, brain surgeons all, have hit a Save the Children maternity hospital in Syria. What are they going to do for an encore, strangle a basket of kittens?

    I suppose it might have been the Ruskies, but even so. What the hell are they doing?

    Russia is arguably the biggest terrorist right now in terms of innocents killed.
    War is war. The Russians know that wars are won by the most ruthless.
    Hitler was pretty ruthless.
    Stalin even more so.

    Curtis LeMay and Patton too.
    Zhukov is my nomination. He could argue the toss with Stalin and was unsparing of Red Army troops.
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    The supremacy of parliament over the ECJ and the complete repatriation of border control will be inflammatory touchstone issues politically. They will not easily be fudged. You are right that leaving the single market would crank up the economic risk, but I do wonder if your overall outlook on hard Brexit is a little apocalyptic.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited July 2016

    MTimT said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    Two of our doggies just earned their keep killing a groundhog in the back field during our daily perambulations.
    Good for them Mr.T, though I confess I have no idea what a groundhog is.

    However, on this site you, perhaps, need to be careful about admitting your dogs killed something. A bit too close to hunting with hounds, don't you know, and lots of people get very upset about that.
    Groundhogs are dangerous animals if you have livestock or horses. They create large burrows which can collapse and break a horse or cow's leg, which means being put down. They also undermine building and gnaw holes in wooden sheds and barns. On top of that they are vicious like a badger, with large teeth that gnash as such high speed they sound like a deadly sewing machine at full tilt.

    But point taken.

    PS This is what they look like: https://dominicdavis.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/groundhog.png
  • Options
    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May will find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    I imagine you believe in fairies as well, no?
    HYUFD believes in Osborne predictions!
    Same thing as fairies.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,065
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
    The bullsh*t that was evident in such huge quantities before the referendum continues to flow, I'm afraid.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My current prediction for the US election would be for Trump to win all the Romney states plus Ohio and Pennsylvania, which would give him 26 states. Hillary wins the election.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,063
    MTimT said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    Two of our doggies just earned their keep killing a groundhog in the back field during our daily perambulations.
    I really do not know why you would want to boast about this in this pompous way. You must be very sad and a bit twisted
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,123
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Which is what makes this whole thing fascinating at one level. We've rejected all-in: all-out is too dumb and grim to contemplate; half-in and half-out will take years to sort out and probably won't work anyway. Where does that leave us?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    The supremacy of parliament over the ECJ and the complete repatriation of border control will be inflammatory touchstone issues politically. They will not easily be fudged. You are right that leaving the single market would crank up the economic risk, but I do wonder if your overall outlook on hard Brexit is a little apocalyptic.
    About 1/3 of the electorate wants full repatriation of border control and an end to free movement, 2/3 of the electorate want access to the single market even if we leave the EU. The City and the FTSE 100 are also in the latter. The 2/3 of the electorate will win the day and May will do some form of fudge over free movement, notice how she says she wants to 'control free movement' not 'end it'. If some of the 1/3 then move to UKIP in disgust then so be it!
  • Options
    runnymede said:

    The Bowie tribute on BBC4 is an utter travesty - awful.

    I have not heard any - please elaborate.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Which is what makes this whole thing fascinating at one level. We've rejected all-in: all-out is too dumb and grim to contemplate; half-in and half-out will take years to sort out and probably won't work anyway. Where does that leave us?
    Half-in, half-out inevitably, it will annoy Leavers and still not satisfy Remainers but it is the only option now
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    tyson said:

    MTimT said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Waitroser, Leaver and PROUD.
    :)

    Me too. Mind you there are somethings that one has to go to Tescos for. Their salmon flakes with honey for example, my cat loves them and they cannot be found in Waitrose.
    Tesco? You are dead to me.
    Fair enough, but you point me to an alternative supplier of my cat's current favourite food. Waitrose is good for his cold roast chicken and his prawns but it does not sell his beloved salmon flakes.

    P.S. I find Waitrose wine prices are, generally, outrageous but their own blend vodka at £12 a bottle is jolly good value, their in house whisky not so much.
    ... I appreciate that you must do the bidding of your feline master.
    Now just a minute, Mr. M. I want to make it quite clear that I do not have a feline master. I do not even keep a pet. Thomas, like The Brute before him and a whole line of moggies before him, is a working cat.

    Like Mrs Free, lady of this parish, I keep a cat with the firm expectation that he or, in the past, she will perform essential tasks in and around the house. There is no freeloading let alone becoming master. Of course a labourer is worthy of his hire and so I make sure I pay Thomas well and if that means going to Tesco once a week, well, dagnabbit, that is what I will do.
    Two of our doggies just earned their keep killing a groundhog in the back field during our daily perambulations.
    I really do not know why you would want to boast about this in this pompous way. You must be very sad and a bit twisted
    No, I live on a farm and have to take care of animals.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,123
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Which is what makes this whole thing fascinating at one level. We've rejected all-in: all-out is too dumb and grim to contemplate; half-in and half-out will take years to sort out and probably won't work anyway. Where does that leave us?
    Half-in, half-out inevitably, it will annoy Leavers and still not satisfy Remainers but it is the only option now
    Truthfully, I am not sure it is an option at a practical level.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free
    Which is what makes this whole thing fascinating at one level. We've rejected all-in: all-out is too dumb and grim to contemplate; half-in and half-out will take years to sort out and probably won't work anyway. Where does that leave us?
    Half-in, half-out inevitably, it will annoy Leavers and still not satisfy Remainers but it is the only option now
    Truthfully, I am not sure it is an option at a practical level.
    When the other option is mass redundancies and a collapsing currency and May looking at her approval ratings seeing the fastest dive since Tom Daley, it will have to be an option
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,065
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Yet more scaremongering!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If fre
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Yet more scaremongering!
    Not scaremongering, fact. The £ fell to its lowest level since 1985 against the US dollar in the weeks after Brexit
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511
    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:



    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)

    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,179
    I'm just rewatching some of the referendum night coverage on YouTube.

    Keith Vaz is having a bit of 5am meltdown... ;)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest RCP polling average has a tie between Trump and Clinton on 44.3% each:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,065
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If fre
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Yet more scaremongering!
    Not scaremongering, fact. The £ fell to its lowest level since 1985 against the US dollar in the weeks after Brexit
    And where is it now?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:



    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)

    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could tr

    If the UK stays more or less wit.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
    Yes and the present level of $1.32 to the £ is still significantly less than the $1.48 it was trading at just before the referendum let alone the $1.57 it was trading at a year ago. Leaving the single market will not take us back to the caves but obviously it is going to seriously hit growth and in all probability lead to a recession, companies will invest on the continent rather than the UK when they have no access to the single market and free movement when based here and the £ will clearly fall yet further
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited July 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    I'm just rewatching some of the referendum night coverage on YouTube.

    Keith Vaz is having a bit of 5am meltdown... ;)

    I did that earlier today. It's champion stuff. David Dimbleby's 'we're out' declaration was the high point.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    I'm just rewatching some of the referendum night coverage on YouTube.

    Keith Vaz is having a bit of 5am meltdown... ;)

    It was just for show. He couldn't be arsed enough to put a Remain poster up in his Humberstone rd constituency office.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If fre
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Yet more scaremongering!
    Not scaremongering, fact. The £ fell to its lowest level since 1985 against the US dollar in the weeks after Brexit
    And where is it now?
    Still well below where it was before
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:



    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)

    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could tr

    If the UK stays more or less wit.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
    Yes and the present level of $1.32 to the £ is still significantly less than the $1.48 it was trading at just before the referendum let alone the $1.57 it was trading at a year ago. Leaving the single market will not take us back to the caves but obviously it is going to seriously hit growth and in all probability lead to a recession, companies will invest on the continent rather than the UK when they have no access to the single market and free movement when based here and the £ will clearly fall yet further
    It's nonsense that there won't be any access to the Single market; it's just that access would't be quite a free as it is now.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:



    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)

    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could tr

    If the UK stays more or less wit.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
    Yes and the present level of $1.32 to the £ is still significantly less than the $1.48 it was trading at just before the refere
    It's nonsense that there won't be any access to the Single market; it's just that access would't be quite a free as it is now.
    Kippers and the likes of Cash, Redwood, Rees-Mogg and IDS are quite willing to sacrifice access to the Single Market as long as they get a complete end to free movement
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
    Not when it falls so low it leads to a significant rise in inflation and people have to cut back on their annual foreign holiday. Exit from the single market would also lead to significantly lower levels of investment in the UK, leading to fewer jobs being created and rising unemployment
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PeterC said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm just rewatching some of the referendum night coverage on YouTube.

    Keith Vaz is having a bit of 5am meltdown... ;)

    I did that earlier today. It's champion stuff. David Dimbleby's 'we're out' declaration was the high point.
    watching itv's coverage now, bbc was much better esp with pro Mike curtice.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
    He already has!
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    S

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
    Yes the downtrend in cable has been in force since mid-2014. Brexit merely saw the next leg down take shape.

    The hard Brexit catastrophe meme is just a piece of conventional wisdom. - sometimes right though often wrong. It is terra incognita - we just don't knpw.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,387

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If fre
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Yet more scaremongering!
    Not scaremongering, fact. The £ fell to its lowest level since 1985 against the US dollar in the weeks after Brexit
    And where is it now?
    Now sterling is only about 10 per cent devalued, a bit under the Wilson devaluation. If one had sold a flat in London and bought a Spanish property one might be 50k richer now.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    'twas ever thus for remainders
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    The state of the Balance of Payments is so dire that a weaker pound is exactly what we need!
    Not when it falls so low it leads to a significant rise in inflation and people have to cut back on their annual foreign holiday. Exit from the single market would also lead to significantly lower levels of investment in the UK, leading to fewer jobs being created and rising unemployment
    If people cut back on foreign holidays that is good news for the Balance Of Payments in that it reduces invisible imports and encourages people from abroad to holiday in the UK. Even a modest uptick in inflation helps to take us away from any threat of deflation whilst at the same time reducing real debt levels.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,387
    The price of "patriotism" is less stuff for your sterling if you work in a normal or low-paid domestic-oriented job. If you work in high-skilled manufacturing or services exports not aimed at the EU, you will probably do fine. A funny outcome given the prevailing (and partial) quasi-Marxian class-based narrative of why LEAVE was lovely and valiant and right, but there we go.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    John_M said:
    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)
    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could try for its own EFTA, single market deal. However nevermind an independent Scotland, the rUK would have enough problems of its own with the recession an exit from the single market would inevitably lead to, the markets would go into freefall! That is why May is not going to let it happen

    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
    The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    deadly quiet at remain party after Sunderland result now........
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:



    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)

    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could tr

    If the UK stays more or less wit.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
    Yes and the present level of $1.32 to the £ is still significantly less than the $1.48 it was trading at just before the referendum let alone the $1.57 it was trading at a year ago. Leaving the single market will not take us back to the caves but obviously it is going to seriously hit growth and in all probability lead to a recession, companies will invest on the continent rather than the UK when they have no access to the single market and free movement when based here and the £ will clearly fall yet further
    Whatever it will be it will be reciprocal - you fuck me, I'll fuck you
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,204
    HYUFD said:

    Kippers and the likes of Cash, Redwood, Rees-Mogg and IDS are quite willing to sacrifice access to the Single Market as long as they get a complete end to free movement

    Cash, Redwood and IDS were head-banging Eurosceptics long before anyone thought that free movement was a bad idea. They were purely motivated by restoring the sovereignty of parliament. I think they'd be fairly relaxed about an EEA approach, in contrast to the Kippers.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Final ratings scores for the RNC and DNC:

    RNC
    Day 1 — 23 million
    Day 2 — 23 million
    Day 3 — 19.8 million
    Day 4 — 34.9 million

    DNC
    Day 1 — 28.4 million
    Day 2 — 28 million
    Day 3 — 27 million
    Day 4 — 33.3 million

    The Democrats had a larger audience than Republicans but Trump beat Hillary anyway in their respective speeches.

    Also I warned everyone for a long time not to include Reuters in any polling average due to their serious methodology problems, I'm glad that someone else noticed it too:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/759104860147122183
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:



    Another blow for Continuity Remain (UK and Brussels arms)

    Indeed but if we go outside the single market and EFTA too that may change, which is why May will likely agree some free movement with controls for some access to the single market
    I'm not sure that is right. A hard Brexit which puts the UK out of the single market would separate an independent Scotland from its principal external trade market, rUK. It would be utter madness for Scotland to go independent for the express purpose of rejoining the EU. A few moments spent contemplating precisely what this would entail should convince most people of this.
    Scotland could tr

    If the UK stays more or less wit.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
    Yes and the present level of $1.32 to the £ is still significantly less than the $1.48 it was trading at just before the referendum let alone the $1.57 it was trading at a year ago. Leaving the single market will not take us back to the caves but obviously it is going to seriously hit growth and in all probability lead to a recession, companies will invest on the continent rather than the UK when they have no access to the single market and free movement when based here and the £ will clearly fall yet further
    Whatever it will be it will be reciprocal - you fuck me, I'll fuck you
    So dragging everyone down with us then!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    a paniked young lad in the background as the pound plunges...........
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:
    If the UK stays more or less within the single market then an independent Scotland would have full access to its rUK market. This leave-without-leaving option would be less provocative to the SNP and would make a second indyref otiose. But Scotland's priority must be to retain full access to the rUK, something which independence following hard Brexit would call into doubt. I agree that Mrs May will likely try to avoid an overt hard Brexit, but if her options run out there may be no choice.
    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If free movement and the single market are abandoned completely, the £ will plummet to a level which will make the Zimbabwean dollar start to look attractive, investment into the UK will dry up, the NHS will go into crisis with a massive staffing shortage etc. In the end that is why May will most likely allow some free movement with controls in return for some single market access
    Good Lord. Citation required. You can't just pluck facts from your fundament.
    The £ fell significantly after BREXIT did it not? It will fall further if we leave the single market. Most big companies want access to the single market do they not? Hence a country in the single market is more attractive than one that is not. The NHS relies heavily on nurses from mainland Europe does it not? Hence the NHS would face a staffing shortage crisis if free movement ended
    Withdrawal of free movement has no impact on those we want only those we don't want. Impact on NHS - zero
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Kippers and the likes of Cash, Redwood, Rees-Mogg and IDS are quite willing to sacrifice access to the Single Market as long as they get a complete end to free movement

    Cash, Redwood and IDS were head-banging Eurosceptics long before anyone thought that free movement was a bad idea. They were purely motivated by restoring the sovereignty of parliament. I think they'd be fairly relaxed about an EEA approach, in contrast to the Kippers.
    IDS has certainly said he wants an end to free movement and Cash was a strong Leadsom backer on that basis. The purest Kippers would be quite happy living in a basketcase economy as long as it had no connection to Europe
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    vikvik Posts: 157
    AndyJS said:

    Latest RCP polling average has a tie between Trump and Clinton on 44.3% each:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    Trump's still leading +1.2 in the 4-way matchup poll:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

    The Reuters/Ipsos poll is giving wildly different results: +5 to Hillary in a Trump v Clinton poll & a tie in a 4-way poll.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    nunu said:

    a paniked young lad in the background as the pound plunges...........

    Where are you watching it ?
    Is it a repeat or on youtube ?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Shadow Chancellor saying its a by election, protest vote.

    Idiot.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:





    If the UK stays more or less wit.

    On the contrary May may find she has no choice but to stay in the single market, the City would demand it, the economy will require it. If f
    Still spouting the scaremongering more than a month after the referendum result?!!
    Well the £ did fall to its lowest level in decades after Brexit before making a modest recovery, if the markets now see us leaving the single market too it would make the days following Brexit look like a walk in the park
    Fancy yourself a currency expert now, eh? Please.
    You do not need to be a currency expert to see it, even Joey Essex can see the way the markets reacted to Brexit and how far that would be magnified tenfold if we left the single market
    Would they? markets often react irrationally in the short term but will tend to find their own level. Leaving the single market won't mean an end to trade with EU states and though there might be a slight slowing effect, it's not going to crash the economy. Why would it?
    Yes and the present level of $1.32 to the £ is still significantly less than the $1.48 it was trading at just before the referendum let alone the $1.57 it was trading at a year ago. Leaving the single market will not take us back to the caves but obviously it is going to seriously hit growth and in all probability lead to a recession, companies will invest on the continent rather than the UK when they have no access to the single market and free movement when based here and the £ will clearly fall yet further
    Whatever it will be it will be reciprocal - you fuck me, I'll fuck you
    So dragging everyone down with us then!
    Their instigation
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