There's a real mismatch between our institutions and treaties and the complexities of the present day. We have too many areas that have become simply articles of faith. The second amendment (1791). The four freedoms (1957). The NHS (1945). Nato (1949).
All set down in a simpler world. None are fit for purpose now.
Once you have bought into the essential lie that the electorate is both ignorant and gullible, you are home free. You never have to introspect, never have to learn. The other side lied, therefore you lost. If only the sheeple would open their eyes! If only the MPs had been even more full-throated in their support. If only the Tory press hadn't vilified St Jezz. And so on and so forth.
I'd assert that we've lost our ability to deal with, or even comprehend, fanaticism in all its guises. How do you argue with or persuade people who are not only irrational, but proud of it?
Spot on!
For decades politicians have relied for their votes on the fact that a significant percentage of the elctorate is both ignorant and gullible.
They can also be highly irrational. I remember having a discussion with a member of my family who took very little interest in politics because she said it didn't affect her. However she was having to pay the bedroom tax so she felt politically motivated to vote in 2015. "So, I presume you are voting for Labour" I said. "Oh no she replied, the bedroom tax has been around for 2-3 yearsand Labour haven't done a thing about it. I am going to vote Green."
I pointed out that in a tight race between Labour and Consevative in her constituency that votng Green might well have the effect in winning the seat for the Conservatives, in which case the bedroom tax would be more likely to stay. She didn't listen.
However, twelve months or so on and she is a converted disciple of St Jez and even scraped up £25 in order to vote for him earlier this week. If she is an example of the gullible and ignorant voters that make up a significant section of the electorate, then Jez COULD do well in 2020.
The theory of masive boom for UK tourist industry is a little flawed. Firstly holidaying in UK is incredibly expensive & the weather always unpredictable.
They had Simon Calder (travel bod) on the radio a couple of weeks talking about this & he said even when we got basically parity of pound / euro a few years ago there wasn't a significant change in holiday trends.
Surely its the USD exchange rate that will drive UK tourism?
Both USA citizens to the UK, and UK citizens staying home rather than going to Florida.
Calder said that again when £/$ was bad, Brits didn't really change their holiday plans. As for foreigners coming to UK, I can see that, as usually it is very very expensive for them.
Mr. Gin, it was his own damned fault. A proper renegotiation would've gotten an easy Remain win.
Mr. Bedfordshire, imagine working hard, becoming an MI5 spy, looking forward to protecting the nation from terrorism and enemy spies, only to discover you've been lumbered being mean to Labour backbenchers to discredit Jeremy Corbyn.
I suspect the vast majority of MI5 operatives are people who carry on with their normal work who are paid a retainer to pass on intelligence.
I'm sure I came across one on a usenet group once. On the surface he was a right wing nutjob but was very erudite for such a character.
He also regularly got his ISP account suspended for libellous comments and then mysteriously unsuspended by the next day.
If (when?) Corbyn wins then the rebel Labour MPs should rally behind Corbyn and commit to his strategy.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
The theory of masive boom for UK tourist industry is a little flawed. Firstly holidaying in UK is incredibly expensive & the weather always unpredictable.
They had Simon Calder (travel bod) on the radio a couple of weeks talking about this & he said even when we got basically parity of pound / euro a few years ago there wasn't a significant change in holiday trends.
Surely its the USD exchange rate that will drive UK tourism?
Both USA citizens to the UK, and UK citizens staying home rather than going to Florida.
Calder said that again when £/$ was bad, Brits didn't really change their holiday plans. As for foreigners coming to UK, I can see that, as usually it is very very expensive for them.
with a consequent £5bn reduction in the UK's tourism deficit.
From those figures, We don't know if that is their main holiday vs city breaks...my guess is city breaks would be hardest hit when you can't all if a sudden get a £1 flight & a bed for £50.
I love the way they keep going on about immigration. For me it was never about immigration. I used to like the free movement, I like Europe, I like the people of Europe, I like trading with Europe.
I cannot stand Junker and his band of undemocratic followers, I don't like the European Parliament and there constant interference in this country. It's the political dimension many of us did not like and the constant " ever closer union".
Meanwhile yet more dead lie on the streets of Europe and they still harp on and on and on about free fucking movement. In today's age you cannot have free movement because you need to try and prevent those that wish to kill you. Merkel is mainly to blame for this as is the EU. Yet again we will see EU leaders exit from bullet proof cars from behind layers of security and pay their respects. They then go back into the security cordon telling us we have to live with it and free movement is not negotiable. We notice today that the French are now using security at Dover for those entering into their country but have been in the past quite ambivalent to those leaving in the opposite direction. Tells you all you need to know.
When we first voted it was an EEC and constantly over 40 years we were ignored and told what we thought was happening wasn't only to find out it actually was.
Owen Smith is basically a zero. Jezza is currently Numero Uno in the Labour Party.
Therefore, reading the image clockwise from top left it encodes the binary 01101001.
This is ASCII for the letter 'i' which is in turn the Latin for FIRST!!!
MI5 and their political blogging agents sure are subtle sometimes...
That is quite superb.
I see now their little code has been unmasked, MI5 have changed the header picture from a Smith/Corbyn mosaic to a slightly less terrifying head-to-head!
Sky coverage of German news conf - lone nutter, no ISIS material found in his flat.
Wasn't that the same claim about nice? Then we found out he had a spare 100k & 5 other people are now in custody.
They're saying he'd been looking at spree killings - no evidence of political interest. Given all the crap the authorities have churned out, whatever the truth - a great many won't believe it.
If (when?) Corbyn wins then the rebel Labour MPs should rally behind Corbyn and commit to his strategy.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
:-)
Was not Corbyn a big wheel in "Stop the War", never mind a big wheel previously in "support the IRA MP murderers"?
Insofar as they did not sabotage Blair, that is likely due to incompetence or incapacity rather than lack of trying.
One of the more amusing things about Corbyn is his apparently ingenuous rampant hypocrisy.
If (when?) Corbyn wins then the rebel Labour MPs should rally behind Corbyn and commit to his strategy.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
The problem is that there are a significant number of Labour MP's who would prefer to lose with Owen smith or someone else in charge, than win with Corbyn in charge. A lot of these have political views that are closer to a Tory government than they would be to a Corbyn led government
If (when?) Corbyn wins then the rebel Labour MPs should rally behind Corbyn and commit to his strategy.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
The problem is that the MPs have, for the most part, said their problem is not his strategy per se but that he is incompetent. Him winning among the members again is an endorsement of both his strategy and him personally, but it doesn't erase that they publicly said he was not up to the job.
I think they will knuckle under and go quiet, but given the nature of their rebellion against Corbyn, it will seem so much less sincere than if they had said they thought his platform was wrong, but the members have confirmed it so they will go for it.
I love the way they keep going on about immigration. For me it was never about immigration. I used to like the free movement, I like Europe, I like the people of Europe, I like trading with Europe.
I cannot stand Junker and his band of undemocratic followers, I don't like the European Parliament and there constant interference in this country. It's the political dimension many of us did not like and the constant " ever closer union".
Meanwhile yet more dead lie on the streets of Europe and they still harp on and on and on about free fucking movement. In today's age you cannot have free movement because you need to try and prevent those that wish to kill you. Merkel is mainly to blame for this as is the EU. Yet again we will see EU leaders exit from bullet proof cars from behind layers of security and pay their respects. They then go back into the security cordon telling us we have to live with it and free movement is not negotiable. We notice today that the French are now using security at Dover for those entering into their country but have been in the past quite ambivalent to those leaving in the opposite direction. Tells you all you need to know.
When we first voted it was an EEC and constantly over 40 years we were ignored and told what we thought was happening wasn't only to find out it actually was.
They sowed what they now reap.
While it wasn't for you, it most certainly was for most people who voted Leave. I find it increasingly puzzling as to why the EU is so adamant about it. I can totally understand Schengen - I've known plenty of people who've commuted from one of the Benelux countries into a neighbour as just one example.
If you look at the June '16 Eurostat numbers, there are 18.5m EU citizens living in other member states. That's 3.6%. There are 1.2 million Brits in that number. That's 1.8% of our population. Seems like relatively small numbers of people to die in a ditch for.
I can't help being struck by the ironic parallels between the current war going on inside Labour and the Trident vote last week.
The majority of Labour MP's voted in favour of keeping a nuclear deterrent,claiming that it made nuclear war less likely because nobody would be mad enough to press the button first because it would result in MAD (Mutally Assurred Destruction)
Many of those same MP's have set the Party on a course to destroy itself by pushing the nuclear button of mass resignations, a no confidence vote and a leadership challenge. It is a war that neither side can win.
The moral of all this is that it is ok to argue that neither side will use the nuclear option, because of MAD. However that argument falls flat on it's face if one side is so determined to achieve their aims at any cost and the other side feels that ideologically they have right on their side.
That misunderstands either the nuclear deterrent or Labour's current position. The deterrent works because countries have a second-strike capability: the capacity to withstand an all-out assault (militarily) and deliver a response. In other words, no matter what an enemy might do, they'd still be annihilated.
Labour is almost in the opposite position, with both sides having *no* second strike capacity - which is a profoundly destabilising situation, encouraging both to launch before the other side does.
Isn't Corbyn's refusal to stand down when faced with a no confidence vote of 172 of his own MP's a second strike capacity of a sort? After all, it's his refusal to budge which has led to this leadership election and what many regard as inevitable armageddon for the Labour Party
I'd take the VoNC as a conventional strike rather than a nuclear one; it's politics as normal, if a fairly extreme version. Going nuclear is the attempt to drive out opponents from the party entirely.
Or from the anti-Corbyn PoV declaring independence is a nuclear option - almost unprecedented levels of destruction and irreversible. Given the electoral system, near-fatal to both sides, so you'd have to be a bit mad to launch it... And that only makes sense once you'd need to be very mad to stay and fight by conventional means.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
The theory of masive boom for UK tourist industry is a little flawed. Firstly holidaying in UK is incredibly expensive & the weather always unpredictable.
They had Simon Calder (travel bod) on the radio a couple of weeks talking about this & he said even when we got basically parity of pound / euro a few years ago there wasn't a significant change in holiday trends.
Although substantially different situations, the sensitivity point reminds me of Rotherham. As you say, in a live scenario information like that is crucial.
Sky coverage of German news conf - lone nutter, no ISIS material found in his flat.
Wasn't that the same claim about nice? Then we found out he had a spare 100k & 5 other people are now in custody.
They're saying he'd been looking at spree killings - no evidence of political interest. Given all the crap the authorities have churned out, whatever the truth - a great many won't believe it.
The fact we even have any doubt in the authorities, because of previous lies, is a bad sign. As yokel says the authorities need to be honest & upfront, not the "two men"...that 2 days later becomes "two men of middle eastern appearance"...
I think some folk are being a bit unfair. Given it's less than 24hrs since the attack when the police say " We don't know X yet " is it possible they are just telling the truth ? And in a world where every word will be ( mis) translated from German then turned into prepared political narratives within minutes wouldn't you take an hour or two extra to double/triple check stuff before publishing. In our current world provincial police forces have to make diplomatically sensitive and globally scrutinised statements within hours of attacks. With far less experience and resources than national Foriegn Ministries.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Actual Borrowing 2010/11 £137bn 2011/12 £116bn 2012/13 £123bn 2013/14 £104bn 2014/15 £92bn 2015/16 £75bn 2016/17 £26bn ytd Total £673bn
So an overall over-borrowing of £202bn.
Does anyone know what the country has got for that £202bn ? Apart from a current account deficit at record levels ?
A good chunk of our borrowing has gone to servicing existing debt. Currently ~ £45 billion p.a. (or 3% of GDP) rising to ~£68 billion by 2018. It's just like borrowing on a credit card, or an old-style repayment mortgage. A lot of your money goes on interest, not repayment of the principal.
During the coalition years, we spent £213 billon to service debt. So far this parliament we've spent £57 billion. Debt servicing is the fourth largest line item in our national budget.
The current account deficit is nothing to do with government borrowing.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Sky coverage of German news conf - lone nutter, no ISIS material found in his flat.
Wasn't that the same claim about nice? Then we found out he had a spare 100k & 5 other people are now in custody.
They're saying he'd been looking at spree killings - no evidence of political interest. Given all the crap the authorities have churned out, whatever the truth - a great many won't believe it.
The fact we even have any doubt in the authorities, because of previous lies, is a bad sign. As yokel says the authorities need to be honest & upfront, not the "two men"...that 2 days later becomes "two men of middle eastern appearance"...
TBH, my faith is gone. When the German police were saying they were hunting for two or three other shooters and not saying what they looked like?
I get the hysteria angle blah blah - but they went on to arrest three ME appearance men in another location. I gather they've been released now. All the bungling incompetence of the Belgian police who kept arresting the wrong Man With Beard didn't help either.
I've simply no belief that they know what they're doing/are talking to each other/will tell us the truth. It smacks of cover-up and Inspector Clouseau.
If (when?) Corbyn wins then the rebel Labour MPs should rally behind Corbyn and commit to his strategy.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
When Blair was in charge, Labour was winning landslide victories at a time when people still remembered 1983 with less than nostalgic enthusiasm.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Not if you stick to absolute facts it doesn't.
Any absolute fact at this stage, while a fact, will only ever be part of the whole picture.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
Mr. Submarine, that's possible, but I think people are unwilling to give the police/media/politicians in Germany the benefit of the doubt based on their behaviour earlier in the year. And I think that's legitimate.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Not if you stick to absolute facts it doesn't.
Any absolute fact at this stage, while a fact, will only ever be part of the whole picture.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
In fluid situation you start of by working with what you got. It's not about their motivation at that time, its about what they are doing or could do.
The Guardian have found a neighbour. He says the shooter was " lazy " and sometimes saw him dump in bins bundles of free newspapers he was paid to deliver. Well I think we all know what *that* means.
Actual Borrowing 2010/11 £137bn 2011/12 £116bn 2012/13 £123bn 2013/14 £104bn 2014/15 £92bn 2015/16 £75bn 2016/17 £26bn ytd Total £673bn
So an overall over-borrowing of £202bn.
Does anyone know what the country has got for that £202bn ? Apart from a current account deficit at record levels ?
A good chunk of our borrowing has gone to servicing existing debt. Currently ~ £45 billion p.a. (or 3% of GDP) rising to ~£68 billion by 2018. It's just like borrowing on a credit card, or an old-style repayment mortgage. A lot of your money goes on interest, not repayment of the principal.
During the coalition years, we spent £213 billon to service debt. So far this parliament we've spent £57 billion. Debt servicing is the fourth largest line item in our national budget.
The current account deficit is nothing to do with government borrowing.
If the government pumps borrowed money into the economy then some of it will be spent on imported consumer tat and foreign holidays - thus increasing the current account deficit.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Not if you stick to absolute facts it doesn't.
Any absolute fact at this stage, while a fact, will only ever be part of the whole picture.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
In fluid situation you start of by working with what you got. It's not about their motivation at that time, its about what they are doing or could do.
I absolutely agree. Are we talking about tactical response to the incident or announcements to the media, however.
TMS — apparently 4 day Test Matches are on the way from 2019.
Stupid. If people aren't on board for 5 day matches, why would 4 day get those same people on board?
One thing killing Test cricket is the over rate and another is the state of the pitches. The sense of drama a good Test can provide is top-notch though, trumping anything T20 can serve up.
With poor over rates on batting-dominated pitches I can see plenty of what are currently tense, tight Tests instead just meandering boringly towards inevitable draws.
If that ends up having to be spiced up by County Championship style "generous" (even, negotiated) declarations and joke "declaration bowling" then Test cricket will be utterly demeaned.
I can see four day Tests working actually - Afghanistan, Ireland, Netherlands etc play four-day First Class "mini-tests" under ICC auspices and these matches are often competitive and can produce close or at least interesting results. Bur they aren't being played on pitches you can regularly bat two days on. Hopefully removing the fifth day will remove the temptation of Test grounds to have flat pitches to ensure revenue over five days. And hopefully the ICC will finally get serious about over rates. In that case, it might just work. But I still don't think that it'd be as good as five day matches with more result-oriented pitches and a properly enforced over rate! Four days could work if they make it work, but five days could work better if they made it too, and they haven't shown willingness or competence to do that.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Not if you stick to absolute facts it doesn't.
Any absolute fact at this stage, while a fact, will only ever be part of the whole picture.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
In fluid situation you start of by working with what you got. It's not about their motivation at that time, its about what they are doing or could do.
I absolutely agree. Are we talking about tactical response to the incident or announcements to the media, however.
Media is critical to disseminating correct information.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
Have to say woakes is a hugely improved player. Never thought he was good enough for test cricket with his samey nicely paced bowling & average batting. But now bowling quicker & more variation & showing real determination when batting.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
There were two big problems with the £4300 - if you took it on face value, calculating 15yrs into the future and being accurate to within £100 looked silly.
It was intended to scare voters into thinking Brexit meant a LOSS of income - not less growth in income by 2030 - and I'd argue most voters thought it meant £4300 now.
Either assessment shows how daft it was - it's either meaningless futureology or absurdly unbelievable unless you're on a substantial income. If you're on the minimum wage or close to it - it'd be 30% of your pay before tax.
I think some folk are being a bit unfair. Given it's less than 24hrs since the attack when the police say " We don't know X yet " is it possible they are just telling the truth ? And in a world where every word will be ( mis) translated from German then turned into prepared political narratives within minutes wouldn't you take an hour or two extra to double/triple check stuff before publishing. In our current world provincial police forces have to make diplomatically sensitive and globally scrutinised statements within hours of attacks. With far less experience and resources than national Foriegn Ministries.
Is it possible they are telling the truth?
Anything is possible, but on recent form the odds are against it. And there's no reason at all to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Actual Borrowing 2010/11 £137bn 2011/12 £116bn 2012/13 £123bn 2013/14 £104bn 2014/15 £92bn 2015/16 £75bn 2016/17 £26bn ytd Total £673bn
So an overall over-borrowing of £202bn.
Does anyone know what the country has got for that £202bn ? Apart from a current account deficit at record levels ?
A good chunk of our borrowing has gone to servicing existing debt. Currently ~ £45 billion p.a. (or 3% of GDP) rising to ~£68 billion by 2018. It's just like borrowing on a credit card, or an old-style repayment mortgage. A lot of your money goes on interest, not repayment of the principal.
During the coalition years, we spent £213 billon to service debt. So far this parliament we've spent £57 billion. Debt servicing is the fourth largest line item in our national budget.
The current account deficit is nothing to do with government borrowing.
If the government pumps borrowed money into the economy then some of it will be spent on imported consumer tat and foreign holidays - thus increasing the current account deficit.
That's a pretty tenuous link, but I'll concede the point.
If (when?) Corbyn wins then the rebel Labour MPs should rally behind Corbyn and commit to his strategy.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
From the testimonies of ex-Shadow Cabinet members, Corbyn and his inner circle are giving as good as they get when they come to sabotaging each other.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
You might know what an Iranian looks like. I might know what an Iranian looks like ( well not really ) but how many people know what an Iranian looks like ? And of those how many still know when they are panicked griped in a mass shooting ? And even if we exclude all of that why do we assume the other potential shooters were also Iranian ? Or looked like Iranians. What ever Iranians look like. And even if we exclude all that how were the public to action the information ? Ring the police and say " I've seen an Iranian at the Bus Station " ?
So yes if they knew he was Iranian and didn't say he's Iranian that's a choice to not mention factual information. However #1 So what ? #2 To cut to the chase did they want to run the risk of random Brown people being lynched. #3 Did they not think loads of public reports of sightings of Brown people might be distracting while they were dealing with a mass casualty attack ?
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
The theory of masive boom for UK tourist industry is a little flawed. Firstly holidaying in UK is incredibly expensive & the weather always unpredictable.
They had Simon Calder (travel bod) on the radio a couple of weeks talking about this & he said even when we got basically parity of pound / euro a few years ago there wasn't a significant change in holiday trends.
Surely its the USD exchange rate that will drive UK tourism?
Both USA citizens to the UK, and UK citizens staying home rather than going to Florida.
Calder said that again when £/$ was bad, Brits didn't really change their holiday plans. As for foreigners coming to UK, I can see that, as usually it is very very expensive for them.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
Really ? Or are they, like many others, being wise after the event ?
I've read that Cameron was expecting to win by 10% on the actual day.
I think some folk are being a bit unfair. Given it's less than 24hrs since the attack when the police say " We don't know X yet " is it possible they are just telling the truth ? And in a world where every word will be ( mis) translated from German then turned into prepared political narratives within minutes wouldn't you take an hour or two extra to double/triple check stuff before publishing. In our current world provincial police forces have to make diplomatically sensitive and globally scrutinised statements within hours of attacks. With far less experience and resources than national Foriegn Ministries.
They were quick to state they didn't think it was Islamic, not quick to state it wasn't neo-nazi, despite knowing he was Iranian....
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
Really ? Or are they, like many others, being wise after the event ?
I've read that Cameron was expecting to win by 10% on the actual day.
The intensity of his action during the campaign, when if he thought he'd win easily he could have sat back and taken fewer risks irritating his party, do not seem like the actions of a man who thought he would win comfortably.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Not if you stick to absolute facts it doesn't.
Any absolute fact at this stage, while a fact, will only ever be part of the whole picture.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
In fluid situation you start of by working with what you got. It's not about their motivation at that time, its about what they are doing or could do.
I absolutely agree. Are we talking about tactical response to the incident or announcements to the media, however.
Media is critical to disseminating correct information.
It is not essential for the media to disseminate correct information when the situation remains fluid.
I think today's press conference was the right time and place for that dissemination. And I think they handled it well with no adverse consequences from any earlier lack of clarity.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
It was a fabrication on multiple levels. An elaborately rigged model to produce 'big' negatives on trade, FDI and GDP and then further statistical manipulations to produce the final figure to be revealed in 3 foot letters, or whatever it was.
The damage this report has done to the Treasury's already shaky reputation is enormous. Many of my REMAIN supporting colleagues were privately appalled by it.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
Really ? Or are they, like many others, being wise after the event ?
I've read that Cameron was expecting to win by 10% on the actual day.
I think some folk are being a bit unfair. Given it's less than 24hrs since the attack when the police say " We don't know X yet " is it possible they are just telling the truth ? And in a world where every word will be ( mis) translated from German then turned into prepared political narratives within minutes wouldn't you take an hour or two extra to double/triple check stuff before publishing. In our current world provincial police forces have to make diplomatically sensitive and globally scrutinised statements within hours of attacks. With far less experience and resources than national Foriegn Ministries.
They were quick to state they didn't think it was Islamic, not quick to state it wasn't neo-nazi, despite knowing he was Iranian....
Sky pushing the neo nazi right wing extremist angle yesterday was very irresponsible, especially as they said they had analyzed the videos to confirm that same individual in the various clips. So they could see who the guy was & thought year definitely looks like a neo nazi to us....
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
Really ? Or are they, like many others, being wise after the event ?
I've read that Cameron was expecting to win by 10% on the actual day.
It was reported that Cameron's private pollster predicted 10% and also said it could be as high as 20%.
Actual Borrowing 2010/11 £137bn 2011/12 £116bn 2012/13 £123bn 2013/14 £104bn 2014/15 £92bn 2015/16 £75bn 2016/17 £26bn ytd Total £673bn
So an overall over-borrowing of £202bn.
Does anyone know what the country has got for that £202bn ? Apart from a current account deficit at record levels ?
A good chunk of our borrowing has gone to servicing existing debt. Currently ~ £45 billion p.a. (or 3% of GDP) rising to ~£68 billion by 2018. It's just like borrowing on a credit card, or an old-style repayment mortgage. A lot of your money goes on interest, not repayment of the principal.
During the coalition years, we spent £213 billon to service debt. So far this parliament we've spent £57 billion. Debt servicing is the fourth largest line item in our national budget.
The current account deficit is nothing to do with government borrowing.
If the government pumps borrowed money into the economy then some of it will be spent on imported consumer tat and foreign holidays - thus increasing the current account deficit.
That's a pretty tenuous link, but I'll concede the point.
I'll refine it to the government pumping borrowed money into higher house prices, increased pensions and tax cuts leads to higher spending on imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.
Now if the government had pumped borrowed money into infrastructure investment then it would likely have had a smaller effect on the current account balance.
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
It was a fabrication on multiple levels. An elaborately rigged model to produce 'big' negatives on trade, FDI and GDP and then further statistical manipulations to produce the final figure to be revealed in 3 foot letters, or whatever it was.
The damage this report has done to the Treasury's already shaky reputation is enormous. Many of my REMAIN supporting colleagues were privately appalled by it.
Even the IFS report took it to task for being economical with the actualité.
However, the biggest issue in presentation was in using absolute terms to imply a shrinking economy. UK trend growth pre-crash was 2.5%. Even if we accepted the Treasury figures, we would be debating whether we'd prefer to have a 2030 economy that was 31.8% larger or 37% larger.
More reasonably, using the various NIESR models, it's a choice between 33.8% (WTO), 34.9% (CETA-like) or 35.2% (EEA) growth by 2030.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
The numbers weren't sound it was an outright lie. Family income is a fraction of GDP, as GDP also includes business investment and government expenditure etc but they divided total GDP forecast (already a stretch buy credible) and divided it by number of families to get a figure per family.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
I remember GO on R4 at 8.10 explaining it very clearly. What the press did with it, however..
If Corbyn does win again the PLP might decide to elect its own leader who would then become Leader of the Opposition. In order to give themselve legitimacy such MPs could decide to resign their seats en masse and so force circa 150 by elections. I suspect that almost all would be re-elected , and,thereafter, would attract much Union support and funding.
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
It was a fabrication on multiple levels. An elaborately rigged model to produce 'big' negatives on trade, FDI and GDP and then further statistical manipulations to produce the final figure to be revealed in 3 foot letters, or whatever it was.
The damage this report has done to the Treasury's already shaky reputation is enormous. Many of my REMAIN supporting colleagues were privately appalled by it.
Even the IFS report took it to task for being economical with the actualité.
However, the biggest issue in presentation was in using absolute terms to imply a shrinking economy. UK trend growth pre-crash was 2.5%. Even if we accepted the Treasury figures, we would be debating whether we'd prefer to have a 2030 economy that was 31.8% larger or 37% larger.
Sure. But there is no way you should ever have accepted the initial figures. As I said, it was a fabrication on multiple levels.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
I remember GO on R4 at 8.10 explaining it very clearly. What the press did with it, however..
Oh come on. What did they think they would happen after this?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
So the Top Tories who were fronting the Remain campaign didn`t believe that the incredible lies peddled to the public by the Top Tories fronting the Leave campaign would actually work?
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
I remember GO on R4 at 8.10 explaining it very clearly. What the press did with it, however..
He explained it was a cost to families. That was a lie. Pure and simple.
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
The damage this report has done to the Treasury's already shaky reputation is enormous. Many of my REMAIN supporting colleagues were privately appalled by it.
Even the IFS report took it to task for being economical with the actualité.
However, the biggest issue in presentation was in using absolute terms to imply a shrinking economy. UK trend growth pre-crash was 2.5%. Even if we accepted the Treasury figures, we would be debating whether we'd prefer to have a 2030 economy that was 31.8% larger or 37% larger.
Sure. But there is no way you should ever have accepted the initial figures. As I said, it was a fabrication on multiple levels.
While we're kicking the shit out if, it also included double counting .
For balance, let's remember that the £350 million per week figure was complete and utter bollocks.
If Corbyn does win again the PLP might decide to elect its own leader who would then become Leader of the Opposition. In order to give themselve legitimacy such MPs could decide to resign their seats en masse and so force circa 150 by elections. I suspect that almost all would be re-elected , and,thereafter, would attract much Union support and funding.
Not possible within Labour, which would almost certainly expel them if they tried that sort of trick anyway.
As long as they are *Labour* MPs, then the leader of the Labour party, if in the Commons, is the LotO, irrespective of whether he has any practical control over them.
I see bbc report keen to tell us the was German, no name known & only at the very very end say iranian descent. Except the name is widely known, telegraph has it front & centre.
Must admit, that sort of thing did cross my mind the other day, given what happened with the media earlier in the year.
Clarity takes away fear.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As we all know it is precisely during fluid situations that sometimes an info dump can be premature.
Not if you stick to absolute facts it doesn't.
Any absolute fact at this stage, while a fact, will only ever be part of the whole picture.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
In fluid situation you start of by working with what you got. It's not about their motivation at that time, its about what they are doing or could do.
I absolutely agree. Are we talking about tactical response to the incident or announcements to the media, however.
Media is critical to disseminating correct information.
It is not essential for the media to disseminate correct information when the situation remains fluid.
I think today's press conference was the right time and place for that dissemination. And I think they handled it well with no adverse consequences from any earlier lack of clarity.
This has all the hallmarks of a typical school-type shooting. Given the age profile of the victims it would have helped nobody to tell the public that it was young people who were being targeted. I think they did right thing to warn everyone.
My bullshit meter just broke. The German authorities are saying Mr German-Iranian is clearly linked to Breivik.
What desperate tosh. A white supremacist with a lengthy manifesto who deliberately tried to wipe out the next generation of Lefties at a camp is the same as a first generation spree killer who shot people in McDonalds.
Seriously, if it hadn't happened on the same calendar day - this comparison wouldn't even get a mention.
If Corbyn does win again the PLP might decide to elect its own leader who would then become Leader of the Opposition. In order to give themselve legitimacy such MPs could decide to resign their seats en masse and so force circa 150 by elections. I suspect that almost all would be re-elected , and,thereafter, would attract much Union support and funding.
They need to resign the Labour whip for Corbyn not to be LOTO. If they resign the whip then there will be a(nother) Labour candidate at the by-election. Bercow won't entertain their nonsense of what you propose I think. They can't hold the Labour whip and Bercow be the LOTO.
They could all resign the whip and form a new party, then Corbyn wouldn't be LOTO.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
I remember GO on R4 at 8.10 explaining it very clearly. What the press did with it, however..
Oh come on. What did they think they would happen after this?
My bullshit meter just broke. The German authorities are saying Mr German-Iranian is clearly linked to Breivik.
What desperate tosh. A white supremacist with a lengthy manifesto who deliberately tried to wipe out the next generation of Lefties at a camp is the same as a first generation spree killer who shot people in McDonalds.
Seriously, if it hadn't happened on the same calendar day - this comparison wouldn't even get a mention.
During a briefing on how to destroy IS, no less. Guess terrorism isn't that important after all.
I saw a lot of Twitter WTFery when Obama broke off during his Munich briefing to make some joke about Trump.
Seriously, it sends all the wrong messages.
The say when the American got his head lopped off & saint Obama did a brief statement & then seen joking on the links minutes later said a lot to me. If that was me, I would have wanted to go to meet the family asap in private to reassure them, offer services of the state etc.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
I remember GO on R4 at 8.10 explaining it very clearly. What the press did with it, however..
He explained it was a cost to families. That was a lie. Pure and simple.
If my day is boring enough I will try to listen to it again.
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
Really ? Or are they, like many others, being wise after the event ?
I've read that Cameron was expecting to win by 10% on the actual day.
It was reported that Cameron's private pollster predicted 10% and also said it could be as high as 20%.
If Lab MPs were to resign the whip then by-elections would be interesting in their seats.
I'd expect Barrow to be a Con gain with Woodcock/Labour splitting the vote. Tristram Hunt would lose his seat to whoever is in a red rosette. Frank Field I'd have down to hold.
My bullshit meter just broke. The German authorities are saying Mr German-Iranian is clearly linked to Breivik.
What desperate tosh. A white supremacist with a lengthy manifesto who deliberately tried to wipe out the next generation of Lefties at a camp is the same as a first generation spree killer who shot people in McDonalds.
Seriously, if it hadn't happened on the same calendar day - this comparison wouldn't even get a mention.
Iranians are caucasian. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss this
' One Downing Street source told Newsnight: "Fundamentally a question was put to the British public - would you be willing to be a little bit poorer to get control of immigration? We staked our chips on everyone going, 'Well, I don't want to be poorer.' They staked their chips on everyone going, 'I want to control immigration,' and they won." '
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
The official Cons Party Remain campaign knew some time out they were going to lose. On immigration.
They didn't believe it because it was a grotesque and blatant fabrication.
What was?
£4300
It was a (NIESR?) forecast. It was handled incredibly badly by Remain, perhaps partly fatally so. But the numbers were sound (inasmuch as any economic forecast is).
No, it was a fabrication, because it implied that GDP divided by the number of households actually means something to the average household.
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
I remember GO on R4 at 8.10 explaining it very clearly. What the press did with it, however..
He explained it was a cost to families. That was a lie. Pure and simple.
Comments
All set down in a simpler world. None are fit for purpose now.
For decades politicians have relied for their votes on the fact that a significant percentage of the elctorate is both ignorant and gullible.
They can also be highly irrational. I remember having a discussion with a member of my family who took very little interest in politics because she said it didn't affect her. However she was having to pay the bedroom tax so she felt politically motivated to vote in 2015. "So, I presume you are voting for Labour" I said. "Oh no she replied, the bedroom tax has been around for 2-3 yearsand Labour haven't done a thing about it. I am going to vote Green."
I pointed out that in a tight race between Labour and Consevative in her constituency that votng Green might well have the effect in winning the seat for the Conservatives, in which case the bedroom tax would be more likely to stay. She didn't listen.
However, twelve months or so on and she is a converted disciple of St Jez and even scraped up £25 in order to vote for him earlier this week. If she is an example of the gullible and ignorant voters that make up a significant section of the electorate, then Jez COULD do well in 2020.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/timeseries/gmax/ott
with a consequent £5bn reduction in the UK's tourism deficit.
I'm sure I came across one on a usenet group once. On the surface he was a right wing nutjob but was very erudite for such a character.
He also regularly got his ISP account suspended for libellous comments and then mysteriously unsuspended by the next day.
Corbyn's style and policy approach is one which is one that can only work long term and may well not work even than. However, we will never know if the MPs continue to sabotage it in its first year.
Left wing Labour people did not openly sabotage Balir when he was in charge. Blairites should not try to sabotage Corbynistas now they are the majority.
I cannot stand Junker and his band of undemocratic followers, I don't like the European Parliament and there constant interference in this country. It's the political dimension many of us did not like and the constant " ever closer union".
Meanwhile yet more dead lie on the streets of Europe and they still harp on and on and on about free fucking movement. In today's age you cannot have free movement because you need to try and prevent those that wish to kill you. Merkel is mainly to blame for this as is the EU. Yet again we will see EU leaders exit from bullet proof cars from behind layers of security and pay their respects. They then go back into the security cordon telling us we have to live with it and free movement is not negotiable. We notice today that the French are now using security at Dover for those entering into their country but have been in the past quite ambivalent to those leaving in the opposite direction. Tells you all you need to know.
When we first voted it was an EEC and constantly over 40 years we were ignored and told what we thought was happening wasn't only to find out it actually was.
They sowed what they now reap.
Predicted Borrowing
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
2015/16 £20bn
2016/17 surplus
Total £471bn
Actual Borrowing
2010/11 £137bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £123bn
2013/14 £104bn
2014/15 £92bn
2015/16 £75bn
2016/17 £26bn ytd
Total £673bn
So an overall over-borrowing of £202bn.
Does anyone know what the country has got for that £202bn ? Apart from a current account deficit at record levels ?
Was not Corbyn a big wheel in "Stop the War", never mind a big wheel previously in "support the IRA MP murderers"?
Insofar as they did not sabotage Blair, that is likely due to incompetence or incapacity rather than lack of trying.
One of the more amusing things about Corbyn is his apparently ingenuous rampant hypocrisy.
I think they will knuckle under and go quiet, but given the nature of their rebellion against Corbyn, it will seem so much less sincere than if they had said they thought his platform was wrong, but the members have confirmed it so they will go for it.
If you look at the June '16 Eurostat numbers, there are 18.5m EU citizens living in other member states. That's 3.6%. There are 1.2 million Brits in that number. That's 1.8% of our population. Seems like relatively small numbers of people to die in a ditch for.
The leak on the guys ethnicity was an example of contrary briefing going on. Just state it, its a fact. They knew hours before, hours. Given at one stage they were thinking that they were after a number of people it would make sense to state that.
Young David, the gunman seemed to have great interest in mass killing incidents. His victims were nearly all young, the incident was at a McDonalds.
Those are facts, just state them.
Factually at this point there is no decisive sense yet that this a directed assault by an IS or Al; Qaeda or even inspired and encouraged. That may well come when computers and phones are taken apart but hiding the guy's ethnicity whilst a fluid security situation goes on is idiotic.
Sensitivity above practicality. People were being killed, get with it.
As to the Allah Akhbar, well it has become a bit like Geronimo these days, sadly, hasn't it.
Ofc I have no inside track. Not 100% sure any other poster on here has either.
Although substantially different situations, the sensitivity point reminds me of Rotherham. As you say, in a live scenario information like that is crucial.
During the coalition years, we spent £213 billon to service debt. So far this parliament we've spent £57 billion. Debt servicing is the fourth largest line item in our national budget.
The current account deficit is nothing to do with government borrowing.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/hungary-pre-qualifying.html
I get the hysteria angle blah blah - but they went on to arrest three ME appearance men in another location. I gather they've been released now. All the bungling incompetence of the Belgian police who kept arresting the wrong Man With Beard didn't help either.
I've simply no belief that they know what they're doing/are talking to each other/will tell us the truth. It smacks of cover-up and Inspector Clouseau.
An Iranian Shia. Who embraced Sunni ideals. Who joined the Ku Klux Klan.
Immigration has been making the working class poorer during the last decade but the likes of Stuart Rose considered that to be a good thing.
' Lord Cooper also told Newsnight that the pro-EU side was forced into "humanely" phasing out a claim by George Osborne that a British exit from the EU would cost the average household £4,300 because voters did not believe it. '
What was it that May said of Osborne ? Over-promised and under-delivered ?
With poor over rates on batting-dominated pitches I can see plenty of what are currently tense, tight Tests instead just meandering boringly towards inevitable draws.
If that ends up having to be spiced up by County Championship style "generous" (even, negotiated) declarations and joke "declaration bowling" then Test cricket will be utterly demeaned.
I can see four day Tests working actually - Afghanistan, Ireland, Netherlands etc play four-day First Class "mini-tests" under ICC auspices and these matches are often competitive and can produce close or at least interesting results. Bur they aren't being played on pitches you can regularly bat two days on. Hopefully removing the fifth day will remove the temptation of Test grounds to have flat pitches to ensure revenue over five days. And hopefully the ICC will finally get serious about over rates. In that case, it might just work. But I still don't think that it'd be as good as five day matches with more result-oriented pitches and a properly enforced over rate! Four days could work if they make it work, but five days could work better if they made it too, and they haven't shown willingness or competence to do that.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/07/british-left-social-justice-electability-160722135244841.html
It was intended to scare voters into thinking Brexit meant a LOSS of income - not less growth in income by 2030 - and I'd argue most voters thought it meant £4300 now.
Either assessment shows how daft it was - it's either meaningless futureology or absurdly unbelievable unless you're on a substantial income. If you're on the minimum wage or close to it - it'd be 30% of your pay before tax.
Anything is possible, but on recent form the odds are against it. And there's no reason at all to give them the benefit of the doubt.
From the testimonies of ex-Shadow Cabinet members, Corbyn and his inner circle are giving as good as they get when they come to sabotaging each other.
Game
Situation in any game format.
So yes if they knew he was Iranian and didn't say he's Iranian that's a choice to not mention factual information. However #1 So what ? #2 To cut to the chase did they want to run the risk of random Brown people being lynched. #3 Did they not think loads of public reports of sightings of Brown people might be distracting while they were dealing with a mass casualty attack ?
And because they pretended that the figure was £4.3k less than now, not £4.3k less than it otherwise would have been whist still being much more than now.
It was an inverted pyramid of piffle, and quite properly dismissed by the electorate.
But you can always find some 'expert' willing to bullsh*t on this or similar topics.
I've read that Cameron was expecting to win by 10% on the actual day.
I think today's press conference was the right time and place for that dissemination. And I think they handled it well with no adverse consequences from any earlier lack of clarity.
The damage this report has done to the Treasury's already shaky reputation is enormous. Many of my REMAIN supporting colleagues were privately appalled by it.
Now if the government had pumped borrowed money into infrastructure investment then it would likely have had a smaller effect on the current account balance.
However, the biggest issue in presentation was in using absolute terms to imply a shrinking economy. UK trend growth pre-crash was 2.5%. Even if we accepted the Treasury figures, we would be debating whether we'd prefer to have a 2030 economy that was 31.8% larger or 37% larger.
More reasonably, using the various NIESR models, it's a choice between 33.8% (WTO), 34.9% (CETA-like) or 35.2% (EEA) growth by 2030.
This actually happened in a State Department press briefing https://t.co/G7aFjB0hOe
That was an outright lie. Completely dishonest.
A case of my enemy's enemy is my enemy.
For balance, let's remember that the £350 million per week figure was complete and utter bollocks.
As long as they are *Labour* MPs, then the leader of the Labour party, if in the Commons, is the LotO, irrespective of whether he has any practical control over them.
What desperate tosh. A white supremacist with a lengthy manifesto who deliberately tried to wipe out the next generation of Lefties at a camp is the same as a first generation spree killer who shot people in McDonalds.
Seriously, if it hadn't happened on the same calendar day - this comparison wouldn't even get a mention.
Seriously, it sends all the wrong messages.
They can't hold the Labour whip and Bercow be the LOTO.
They could all resign the whip and form a new party, then Corbyn wouldn't be LOTO.
I'd expect Barrow to be a Con gain with Woodcock/Labour splitting the vote.
Tristram Hunt would lose his seat to whoever is in a red rosette.
Frank Field I'd have down to hold.