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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour, heading towards the cliff
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour, heading towards the cliff
‘Exceptional things don’t happen as often as commentators think’ is nearly always a good betting rule of thumb but there are two riders to that assertion. Firstly, ‘not as often’ doesn’t mean ‘never’, and secondly, when they do happen, they can cluster.
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"Three made direct attacks[1] on Corbyn’s incompetence or conduct, while another[2] publicly contemplated leaving the Party altogether if he’s re-elected" ... Are some links or footnotes missing here?
Therefore, reading the image clockwise from top left it encodes the binary 01101001.
This is ASCII for the letter 'i' which is in turn the Latin for FIRST!!!
MI5 and their political blogging agents sure are subtle sometimes...
They're planning to challenge him again in 2017 & possibly 2018.
Others will be tribally loyal, so they'll grumble on but not split. Corbyn can buy off some of the remainder by agreeing to protect them against deselection, or even make sure they get good new seats on the new boundaries. If he can keep the loss down to 1/6 of the parliamentary party, that's not really enough for a very viable SPDv2. I mean, it's not like many of the others are greatly loved and respected. How many of the rebels do we think could hold their seat (or win another one) without the Labour brand?
"you were only meant to blow the bloody doors off"
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/why-the-liberal-left-has-declared-war-on-tripadvisor/
This liberal loathing of the hoi polloi, of the ghastly unwashed masses, is the theme of our times — you could, if you were writing for the Guardian, use the word zeitgeist. It is there in Jean-Claude Juncker’s unashamed disparagement of all ‘populist’ political parties across Europe — i.e., parties which are very rapidly becoming popular with the masses because they oppose the sclerotic and failing neoliberal mindset of the European Union’s boss class. It is there among the Labour party activists, in their epic disregard for what Labour voters think about stuff like immigration and the welfare state. And of course it’s there in the plaintive bleating from the dispossessed Remain campaigners, the vitriol sprayed at those who voted Leave, who are denounced as thick and racist. Have the vote again and make sure these awful people are told they got it wrong last time. All along, these authoritarian liberals believed the world was with them. And Brexit, TripAdvisor, Syriza, Donald Trump, Pergida and so much more demonstrate that while they rule us, they do not have hegemony. The people disagree.
My guess is that a split will only occur should Corbyn manage to force through deselections. And I don't think that is likely to happen - at least on a major scale and on his terms - this side of a general election. Instead, sullen silence with the odd flare up is more likely, with the final denouement postponed until after May secures a one hundred plus Tory majority.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/theresa-may-cricket-loving-british-leader-with-impact-on-india/story-i1uFZx3iPQwbWASO15BgNO.html
"Outside of politics, May and her husband Philip John May are known to be keen cricket fans. They were introduced at an Oxford Conservative disco by former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 1976, which was May’s first year at university.
May’s cricket hero is Geoff Boycott, the dour Yorkshireman who was the scourge of bowlers around the world during his time – and that says something about her. She was also enamoured of the tall West Indian speedster Tony Gray. Her love of cooking and bold shoe designs is well known."
If you were going to build a party of the centre left from scratch, you would not build it as the Labour party is built. Its structure reflects a world that no longer exists. A split makes sense logically, until you look at the voting system. Then it only makes sense if, like the Corbynistas, you do not see Labour primarily as a Parliamentary party.
Major was/is keen on cricket too. After losing to Blair he said something like "that was that, he was off to the Oval!"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/23/to-deliver-the-brexit-we-voted-for-ukip-must-rise-again?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Stokes needs to knuckle down, none of this slashing at the ball or he will walk early against Amir or Shah
As a commentator. Boycott has one thing to say each day, but its correct but he bores us to death with saying it at every opportunity..
I think Blowers time is coming, he is making too many commentating mistakes
Corbyn doesn't want to be PM. He wants to lead a mass membership protest movement, and that might as well be The Labour Party.
In Spain, Podemos came form nowhere to get 20% of the vote; Ciudadanos did the same and got I5%. They both have healthy parliamentary representation. That is as it should be. The rise of both has caused huge headaches for the traditional parties of left and right, but that is good: it has forced them to think much harder about things and the voters' choice has widened. All that the rise of Momentum has done is guarantee Tory rule for the foreseeable future.
The majority of Labour MP's voted in favour of keeping a nuclear deterrent,claiming that it made nuclear war less likely because nobody would be mad enough to press the button first because it would result in MAD (Mutally Assurred Destruction)
Many of those same MP's have set the Party on a course to destroy itself by pushing the nuclear button of mass resignations, a no confidence vote and a leadership challenge. It is a war that neither side can win.
The moral of all this is that it is ok to argue that neither side will use the nuclear option, because of MAD. However that argument falls flat on it's face if one side is so determined to achieve their aims at any cost and the other side feels that ideologically they have right on their side.
This is make or break for the Labour party. The moderates either win or they have to form a new party while letting Corbyn contaminate the Labour brand as a minority party.
Good summary, Mr. Herdson. I largely agree. My only reservation would be the emotional break needed for a full split. That may limit the numbers who jump (or not, 172 voted they had no confidence in Corbyn).
If Corbyn's removal at the 2020 election were guaranteed then I think the PLP might be better to stick it out with the aim of reclaiming the party in 2020.
The question therefore becomes how much retaliation can the left get in before next year, and how realistic is it for the party as an official opposition to be barely effective for all that time? In other words whether the long game is a realistic proposition, with everything else in politics going forward meanwhile?
1. If it's going to happen, it has to have large numbers behind it, enough to become the Opposition in Parliament and confine Corbyn to the back benches.
2. It has to happen *before* the deselections get going, otherwise it looks like the sore losers picking up their ball and going home.
I'm still not sure if the MPs are willing in sufficient numbers to want to leave the Party, with the members, Unions, support structures, Labour brand etc that a lot of them have spent many years or even decades around. A couple of big donors or Unions on board, and a quiet word in the Speaker's ear about Short money (as we discussed here yesterday) might help things along a little, but for so many of them the Labour Party are all they've known and I'm not sure they want to walk away from it all.
However, I disagree with the premise that Corbyn does not want to secure power through Parliament. Unfortunately for him, the majority of his MP's have never given him the opportunity to do so, undermining him from day one. If they had bided their time for a few months and held off with their attacks and plotting and the polls had shown that Corbyn was leading the Party on a downward spiral, then it would have been much easier to replace him.
Why did those against him not give him a honeymoon period enjoyed by most new leaders? My theory is that it was not fear of Labour failure under Corbyn that frightemed them so much as fear of success. They could not face the possibility of Corbyn gaining popularity with the general voting public.
Just my opinion, I don't expect many to share my view.
Labour's only choice is to split. The cancer within the party can no longer be purged, it is taking the body over and finding no resistance. There must be a sane centre left choice for voters, UKIP don't provide that and neither will the Conservatives for all of Theresa's early rhetoric.
Suppose Corbyn wins this round but loses either the next or the next but one leadership contest. The PLP will be euphoric with victory over the Corbyn. But how will the membership feel?
And, in the meantime, could UKIP and the Lib Dems make advances?
"Getting political representation is important, but change comes through using direct action, campaigning, and trade unions", McDonnell continued ...
Corbyn too didn't rush to sign me up, "Get involved in campaigns, in a union, with peace movement, get involved with Occupy & UK Uncut", he said, before adding, finally, "and also be in a political party."
http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/jeremy-corbyn-john-mcdonnell-interview-election-2015-labour-party-674
I'm no longer a Labour voter but I'm not happy about Jezza's ascension. Like an ex-pat, I always think I'll return soon. Not with Wolfie Smith in charge. This is a disaster of their own making.
Corbyn's economic views have appeal, but his Internationalist views are anathema to the WWC. Labour used to recognise this and that's why Harold Wilson was so effective.
With Labour member's now being more to the middle-class, and dare I say Guardian-leaders, cabal, they can virtue-signal to their hearts content. They won't be so affected by Tory policies anyway.
Immigration does not need to be controlled, we can spend as much as we want if it's called something else, especially if nuclear weapons are junked, and causes across the world to warm the cockles of the hearts are more important than the Chavs' views.
You reap what you sow. A strong vibrant party with zero chance of being elected. Welcome to the world of the LDs or the Greens.
So sad.
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/luke-akehurst-nec-analysis-shows-momentum-thriving-in-unwinnable-seats/
"If Corbyn leads Labour into the 2020 election and an expected electoral drubbing, might he even then refuse to step down?"
Indeed. Unlike Hitler, who blamed the failings of the German public, Jezza will blame the Farmer Jones' and splitters in the party. Stabbed in the back by his so-called colleagues.
The same happened in the UK when the west coast main line from Euston was electrified by British Rail in the 1960s. Services on the alternative routes were decimated. The alternative route from London to Birmingham was singled, line speed downgraded, all intercity trains withdrawn and the Birmingbam Terminus at Snow Hill closed.
Just like those european classic routes - an almost exact parallel, you could still get from London to Birmingham that way but it meant at least two changes with poor connections taking hours, travelling on slow suburban seated DMUs, and you had to walk the last half mile. Marylebone at the southern end narrowly escaped closure in the 1980s.
That is how it stayed until privatisation (other than new DMUs and Snow Hill being reopened in the 1980s as New St couldn't cope with the local commuter traffic.
Enter privatisation. Chiltern Trains took over. Reinstated faster and very cheap through services to Birmingham. Result - huge success, entire line redoubled and 100mph trains twice an hour to Brum only about 20 minutes slower than Virgin and less than half of the price.
Similar happened on the long neglected midland mainline with services increased from two per hour, with irregular times and stopping patterns, to five clockface departures, soon to be six. Alas the services via Derby to Manchester withdrawn after the West Coast line was electrified have not returned as BR shut and lifted the route between Buxton and Matlock.
Then there was the sprinter revolution on secondary routes. This happened in BR days under Thatchers reforms (sectorization).
Suddenly it is behinning to look as if privatisation wasnt the ghastly mistake it was thought to be.
I'm a problem solver, which is why I'm a fairly good analyst. I see no way to resolve Labour's membership and Labour's voters. The current cohabitation must end with one side as a winner and the other as a loser, the solution must therefore be for the losing side to take up the mantle of the centre left (or hard left if Corbyn loses) outside of the Labour structure.
The middle way doesn't seem to exist here as there is no candidate who can carry the party and the members.
Everything that is happening around the world - including UKIP and Brexit at home - Trump, and all the new political movements - indeed also the young with their Snapnumpty and Gordon Brown websphere stuff - threatens this consensus.
Corbyn upsets all this for Labour whether he succeeds or fails.
She has played the corridor of uncertainty well so far....
The Labour movement is bigger than just one man.
You would have been saying the same if you had lived in 1931, nobody then could foresee. 1945.
Only PR for GE will destroy the Conservatives and Labour, and in my opinion it would be a good thing , but its not going to happen.
No wonder the current PM likes them both.
Followers who believe they can do no wrong , terrible leaders, and both rigid in their views and never change .
This is just to make Owen Smith look bad? Corbyn is not mad he's bad
@grvlx001: Corbyn will elaborate his plan to scrap tax relief scheme for drugs research by pharma companies - McDonnell #r4today
I take David's point that sometimes epochal moments do occur and it really seems time for it, but I just cannot see it. The party is too big and unwieldy, it's angry factions utterly committed, it's floor of support high and the task of going alone too daunting. As the Tories surprised at how well they kept a lid on things, labour will surprise us in how they keep together through all this, despite being even more divided.
While the prospect outside labour looks so bleak, there will be no big split, even if prospects within it look poor. They can play the long game - they will move on to hoping members realise their mistake if the Tories in big in 202'0, but if they split any loss will be blamed on them - rather than be so bold. Given Corbyn will only win if popular with members, why split on the basis you are unpopular and eont take many with you? They don't have it in them.
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/owen-smith-half-of-the-great-offices-of-state-must-be-filled-by-women/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt//
Corbyn is not entirely without appeal, I've said before if the Tories have a poor leader and the country is not doing great in 2020, he might even have had a shot. Not a great one, but a shot. But when even very poor leaders seem to have done better than him, I struggle to see the answer s being peope were afraid of how great he woukd be rather than that he is as bad as others think.
It will flow across into retail, hospitality and entertainment as well.