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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So now the LAB leadership is a two horse race
.@angelaeagle ends #LabourLeadership bid, leaving @OwenSmith_MP to challenge @jeremycorbynhttps://t.co/OyPrKkM5pZ pic.twitter.com/ZIcJuvSq5u
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New party?
No doubt, though, that Owen Smith is better placed to beat Corbyn. He has a tiny chance, but it does exist. If by some miracle it happens, Angela Eagle will earn the undying gratitude of millions of Labour voters.
But doesn't Angela Eagle understand how AV works, both she and Owen Smith could have both stood.
It's not FPTP
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125575779
https://twitter.com/iankatz1000/status/755154966545850369
But then, this is the Labour party. Patricide is not their specialist subject.
The NEC/Corbyn 51 nominations one and the Article 50 one.
My cup well and truly runneth over, it's like Bush v Gore all over again.
Also helps the poor, hard up legal profession, what's not to love?
The Labour Party. 2016
We need that AV thread TSE!
1. Corbyn gets 51 nominations, presumably so does Owen Smith, so we're back to where we are now;
2. Corbyn doesn't get 51 nominations, Owen Smith is the unity candidate: no member ballot, oops, BETRAYAL.
3. Corbyn doesn't get 51 nominations, someone else enters the race, and it's Smith vs A.N.Other (or conceivably more than one other).
- it avoids that Spatacus moment - "I'm the unity candidate"; "no, I'm the unity candidate"...
- you and I understand AV, but a not insignificant number of voters fail to cast a second preference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
Oh wait ...
Who is your Twtter Avatar? (not Kim Walsh, I mean the Twitter avatar). I know I've seen him somewhere but can't remember the programme.
And this is the party which, its insufferable sense of moral superiority intact, has the gall to lecture the rest of us on equality.
It stinks.
Better for Corbyn to stay, be roundly defeated and from the ashes maybe decent Labour party members like you can create a left of centre party which actually acts on the liberal principles it claims to believe in and which the rest of us could even consider voting for.
I spent those couple of days laying her heavily, if anyone was stupid enough to bet her at 2.0 then of course I'll take the other side of that.
Paid off.
Btw my earlier reply to you top of PT
- Margaret Thatcher on BBC Television, 5 March, 1973
https://twitter.com/corbynjokes/status/755362915298009088
But the keys are, firstly, whether he actually shows any kind of ability to win a General Election himself. As much as the PLP delusionally think it is self-evident that they know how to win elections, that is far from obvious to us, given their recent record in elections and referendums. Is Smith good in the media? Would he seen as a vaguely plausible PM? Does he have any kind of understanding of what Joe Public thinks, rather than just parroting the opinions of the London intelligentsia like most of the Labour "moderates" do? Time will tell, but the early signs are not that promising - considering that after less than a week, he's already made a couple of gaffes in media interviews, and he's made one of his headline pledges that Labour should stay in favour of the EU, even after TWO THIRDS of Labour constituencies just voted to Leave.
The second thing is whether members actually trust any policy pledges that Smith makes. No matter how much his policy platform is to the liking of Labour members, there's going to be suspicion about whether he'll actually follow through. I don't think it's going to be ignored that the PLP (all of whom will be supporting Smith) have been utterly full of contempt for the Labour membership, saying how members were all just crazy Trots, how their opinions didn't matter and MPs should just ignore them, etc. No matter how exasperated members are with Corbyn's incompetence, they are NOT going to want to hand the keys back to the PLP unless they're reassured that it won't be a return to the dark days of abstaining on the Welfare Bill and generally enabling Tory austerity.
I'd say Corbyn still a pretty strong favourite, but odds not quite as short as they were.
There are too many huge egos in the Labour party for there not to be more throwing their hat in the ring.
Oh you mean the last time when the so called clever ones were spending all of their energy trying to position themselves for second preferences?
Owin' Even-more-than-last-time.
Have they even vaguely thought this through? 170 other MPs are looking at their feet, slowly shaking their heads....
I am not sanguine about his chances.
Always raises a laugh
Angela Eagle spent longer talking about standing for leader than actually doing it.
@iainjwatson: Owen Smith says if he wins Angela Eagle will be 'at his right hand'
Your first post belies your posting name - it's entirely reasonable.
Can't see it stated anywhere on here.
I agree that Corbyn is well ahead with members and is very likely to win. But that's basically because most Labour members have no serious interest in Labour ever winning elections again.
Why are the betting markets not giving Corbyn 90+ % yet ?
That's a lot of money being bet on Micheal Foster.
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I can't help feeling that, assuming he survives, which seems likely, this is all doing Corbyn some good in the country at large....
I go to Italy for a fortnight and when I come back I find that a Gail's Artisan Bakery (for heaven's sake) has now opened in West Hampstead. The place is going to the dogs. I'd impose a Stupidity Tax on anyone daft enough to pay the sort of prices they charge.
Not because they are sexist, but because the political culture at the top of the Labour party makes them think it is a good thing to put their gender at the heart of their campaign.
If you present your vagina as your most compelling political quality people are always going to think you a bit pathetic.
Am astonished by how you can effectively man a phonebank from your computer with such little screening/training. Has this been the direction that party phonebank campaigns have started to take too?
Doesn't mean he is not better than Corbyn though. ABC, it is that simple.
Mysoginist, backstabber, red Tory baby killer.
The fact is that the only way to beat Corbyn is to have a unity candidate who does not have Iraq hanging over their shoulders. And if Labour is to survive as a parliamentary party Corbyn has to be beaten.
(R)evolutionary spirit. Jezza, in all of his forms; Jezza for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Jezza, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
Coming back to London from Italy was always rather grim (although not with today's weather), even when I lived in West Hampstead.
Baby don't hurt me
Don't hurt me
No more!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEXWRTEbj1I
For you, anyone to the right of the Revolutionary Socialist League is a "Blairite".
@jimwaterson: ..and in central lobby, as Owen Smith does TV interviews, a backbench Tory called David Cameron briefly pauses to find out what's happening.
Of course, the government has already dropped its entire fiscal and economic policy and will be spending a shedload of money than had been planned. We're all Corbynites now ;-)
Forget the porridge, cue Angela's Catchphrase:
"Well, that was a fucking disaster..."
You can tease Labour about women leaders, or you can argue identity politics don't matter but you can't do both.