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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a momentous day in British politics the latest PB/Pollin

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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    It seems after Brexit the only one receiving a punishment is Osborne! And well deserved.

    King over the water when this inevitably goes tits up.
    The only thing going tits up is the Left in British politics they are destroying themselves from the inside out.
    Now that the gaze of the wicked right wing press has been averted for 24 hours I'm sure that the Labour party under their beloved leader will be sparkling and refreshed ready to govern for the many not the few.

    Or not
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?

    Not 1997: Robin Cook had been shadow Foreign Secretary.
    Not 1924: Ramsay MacDonald had been Leader of the Opposition, shadow PM.
    Not 1919: Earl Curzon had been Viceroy of India.
    Not 1900: the Marquess of Lansdowne had been Viceroy of India too.

    The answer may be 150 years ago in 1866, when Lord Stanley, later the 15th Earl of Derby, was appointed Foreign Secretary under his father, the prime minister and 14th Earl of Derby. They both went to the same school as Boris Johnson.

    Has Boris given up his US citizenship yet?




    Boris is still a Yank. He'll do an absolutely fantastic job until he utterly fucks it up. He won't go out with a whimper. Just hope he doesn't go out with a war.
    As I understand it, serving in a policy-making role in a foreign government is still regarded by the State Department as incompatible with maintaining US citizenship. This has never been tested in the courts, and pretty much all of the State Department's previous determinations of incompatibility such as merely voting in a foreign election have long since been struck down. I expect they'll just ignore the issue, but this could complicate things.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,584
    saddened said:

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    It seems after Brexit the only one receiving a punishment is Osborne! And well deserved.

    King over the water when this inevitably goes tits up.
    The only thing going tits up is the Left in British politics they are destroying themselves from the inside out.
    Now that the gaze of the wicked right wing press has been averted for 24 hours I'm sure that the Labour party under their beloved leader will be sparkling and refreshed ready to govern for the many not the few.

    Or not
    Have they worked out who is eligible to vote in their leadership election yet?
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2016

    SeanT said:

    Well I predicted, and hoped for, BoJo as Foreign Sec. He's perfect for the task, and it means a Brexiteer gets one of the top jobs. Does anyone really believe Bojo will be WORSE than Hammond? The job of Foreign Secretary is to go round charming foreigners, no more, no less. Boris will do that well.

    David Davis as Brexit Minister? Hmm. Not sure.

    Otherwise a decent first stab by May.

    I think Boris is a shit or bust 50:50 selection
    I think he's a uniquely English jackass. Would foreigners be charmed by that? I don't know.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?

    Not 1997: Robin Cook had been shadow Foreign Secretary.
    Not 1924: Ramsay MacDonald had been Leader of the Opposition, shadow PM.
    Not 1919: Earl Curzon had been Viceroy of India.
    Not 1900: the Marquess of Lansdowne had been Viceroy of India too.

    The answer may be 150 years ago in 1866, when Lord Stanley, later the 15th Earl of Derby, was appointed Foreign Secretary under his father, the prime minister and 14th Earl of Derby. They both went to the same school as Boris Johnson.

    Has Boris given up his US citizenship yet?

    When was the last time we had a foreign national as our Foreign Secretary? Just wondering.....
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    PeterC said:

    Jobabob said:

    Off topic, second referendum policy smart move by Owen Smith. I personally don't agree with idea but could be catnip to a very Europhile membership (Lab members 90% Remain) and is a trap for Corbyn (a eurosceptic). Clever.

    Indeed, it's the one policy area where the PLP is closer than Corbyn to the membership!
    A second referendum post Article 50 is not a 'europhile' gesture, it is not a repeat choice between Leave and Remain. It could only be about accepting or rejecting a deal to leave, a proxy for a choice between hard and soft brexit'
    That is not what Owen Smith is calling for, he is calling for another In-Out once the negotiations have been done.

    Of course it avoids the fact that to negotiate the Brexit deal Article 50 will have to be triggered and we'd be leaving anyway.

    It is entirely a gesture to split off Corbyn's softer support.
    I think it's quite smart. He needs some issues other that not being Corbyn and there are plenty of members (possibly more among Eagle's supporters than Corbyn's) who will think it a line worth taking. It opens up the possibility of an electoral pact with the LibDems.......
    Edit: I see Eagle has now endorsed the proposal (which is for a new referendum OR an election to endorse or reject the deal).
    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    PeterC said:

    Jobabob said:

    Off topic, second referendum policy smart move by Owen Smith. I personally don't agree with idea but could be catnip to a very Europhile membership (Lab members 90% Remain) and is a trap for Corbyn (a eurosceptic). Clever.

    Indeed, it's the one policy area where the PLP is closer than Corbyn to the membership!
    A second referendum post Article 50 is not a 'europhile' gesture, it is not a repeat choice between Leave and Remain. It could only be about accepting or rejecting a deal to leave, a proxy for a choice between hard and soft brexit'
    That is not what Owen Smith is calling for, he is calling for another In-Out once the negotiations have been done.

    Of course it avoids the fact that to negotiate the Brexit deal Article 50 will have to be triggered and we'd be leaving anyway.

    It is entirely a gesture to split off Corbyn's softer support.
    I think it's quite smart. He needs some issues other that not being Corbyn and there are plenty of members (possibly more among Eagle's supporters than Corbyn's) who will think it a line worth taking. It opens up the possibility of an electoral pact with the LibDems. As for the realities, if Britain were to elect a Government seeking to reverse withdrawal, I suspect the EU would cooperate despite the wording of Article 50.

    Edit: I see Eagle has now endorsed the proposal (which is for a new referendum OR an election to endorse or reject the deal).
    What's smart about running for leadership of the Labour Party?
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    Jonathan said:

    In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.

    Snort
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs.

    Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @wdjstraw: Delighted to hear that a Remainer will be foreign secretary #BoJo

    I wonder what serial failure Will Straw will turn his hand to next.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    perdix said:

    OllyT said:

    Cameron's comment about Brexit causing WW3 doesn't seem quite so funny now Boris is at the FO.

    Cameron did not comment about WW3. You must be joking or ignorant. It was an overpaid TV presenter whose name ,God help us, is Faisal Islam.
    Sorry. Several papers were briefed with the WW3 line by Cameron's spokesperson/s ahead of the article. The WW3 comment was never denied or withdrawn. No apology was requested from the papers by the govt people handling REMAIN at that time.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,584
    Jonathan said:

    In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.

    Bit early to say that isn't it?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    The FO is a great example of regulatory capture. Europhiles to a man. Comrade Johnson should get the show trials and purges rolling forthwith.
    Surely the guillotine is suitably "communautaire", as a method of dispatch? ( joking)
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Sorry. Several papers were briefed with the WW3 line by Cameron's spokesperson/s ahead of the article. The WW3 comment was never denied or withdrawn. No apology was requested from the papers by the govt people handling REMAIN at that time.

    Indeed it would be an extraordinary coincidence that so many papers had similar headlines if they hadn't been briefed along those lines.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MP_SE said:

    Scott_P said:

    @wdjstraw: Delighted to hear that a Remainer will be foreign secretary #BoJo

    I wonder what serial failure Will Straw will turn his hand to next.
    No doubt, like a lot of the Labour SPAD class, he will try to start giving Labour lessons on how to be "electable" without a hint of self-awareness.
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    Jonathan said:

    In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.

    Bit early to say that isn't it?
    Not if it is wishful thinking
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079

    Someone really needs to set up a Gofundme to solicit donations for grief counselling at the Guardian since the country England and Wales voted to leave the EU.

    Add in the FT and the Economist. Both of whom are way to statist for publications that should be advocating liberal economics. Odd how they are so out of line with their readers. Must be the beauty of corporate subscriptions and no one cancels them.
    Your prime minister is talking about using Brexit to stop foreign takeovers and to prop up national champions in protected sectors. A bad legacy for Cameron to open the door to such statist meddling.
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    DaveDaveDaveDave Posts: 76

    DaveDave said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am willing to forgive May everything so far - including BloJo (sic) - if she sacks Morgan and replaces her with absolutely anyone who is sane, intelligent and will hammer the useless berks at DfES and OFSTED.

    That would make up for a lot, but I have a horrible feeling Morgan will survive even though she was appointed for gender tokenism reasons to start with.

    I am hearing that Greening is heading to a new beefed-up Education department (that will take back control of universities etc from the now defunct BIS)
    Yes! Yes! Please! I'll take it...
    Come on, Doctor, you are only saying that because Greening has shown herself to be an empty airhead who is easily house trained by her CS staff. So with her at Education, all reform aimed at improving education will be, effectively, abandoned inside six months and producer interests will again prevail.
    No, I'm saying that because Morgan is a thoroughly unpleasant woman who was pushing everything because she was told by the poisonous cretins around her that it would help her career.

    Greening will be useless. She will achieve nothing. And that means there will be no direction and no new initiatives. We can have a few years of peace and quiet to get on with teaching.

    I'd prefer someone good, who would sack every civil servant, abolish both the ministry and the quangos, and then vanish without trace leaving parents to make choices rather than failed hereditary technocrats like Chris Wormald. But amiable incompetence is a decent second best after Gove and Morgan.

    I've spent quite a bit of time with Justine Greening in the last year. She's modest, hard working, intelligent, well loved and a great listener. I think as Transport Sec she didn't do well, but I think she has grown so much since. I think she is great and much better than Amber Rudd. Of course, it is all about opinions, but Justine is really solid. I would back her time and again and would be a great Home Sec.
    Fair go, Mr. Dave, but you said nothing about her ability to lead. We know she is good at listening, we have heard her parrott the lines she has been fed. We know she is hardworking, she couldn't have learned all those lines unless she was. Can she actually lead?
    Certainly at local level, she is a great leader. I accept, in Govt, maybe different. However, I've been really impressed with her in the Int Dev role. She presented a message that was seen as much more positive than 'give the foreigners money for nothing.' What Has Rudd achieved? George told her, 'cut the green crap' and she did. But hey ho, politics is full of opinions.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    Yes that's what I've been thinking. Especially as he is in the twilight of his career and would have no qualms about resigning if he wasn't getting his flavour of brexit. Which says to me perhaps May is ready to give it to him.
    David's article on conhome is a good read if you haven't read it. http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

    It's more detailed than most of the others - at least he covers things that need to be discovered and discussed before triggering article 50...</blockquote

    I like what he says but he barely mentions the immigration side of the coin.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Jonathan said:

    In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.

    Even the weakest government from the current Tory benches will be far, far strong than anything that can be cobbled together by the official opposition.
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    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs. Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
    I was involved in Government relations in the period 1980 to 1990 and can tell you how our standing in the world leaped under Thatcher. We went from a basket case to being admired. Trade doors opened just because we were a British company. Thatcher had not spent one day as even a junior FO minister prior to being our PM. Have you no sense of pride in your country? We are a great country with a great future ahead of us.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited July 2016
    rpjs said:

    As I understand it, serving in a policy-making role in a foreign government is still regarded by the State Department as incompatible with maintaining US citizenship. This has never been tested in the courts, and pretty much all of the State Department's previous determinations of incompatibility such as merely voting in a foreign election have long since been struck down. I expect they'll just ignore the issue, but this could complicate things.

    The US did not strip Natalie Jaresko of her US citizenship when she became Ukraine's finance minister in 2014. She was not only a US citizen (which she still is), but she had previously worked for several years for the US State Department.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.

    Even the weakest government from the current Tory benches will be far, far strong than anything that can be cobbled together by the official opposition.
    Job got a bit easier
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited July 2016
    @alauraschneider: German TV news presenters can't help laughing as they announce #BorisJohnson as Britain's new Foreign Minister.

    So that's USA and Germany...

    Lucky we don't have any big diplomatic discussions coming up with either of them.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    glw said:

    Sorry. Several papers were briefed with the WW3 line by Cameron's spokesperson/s ahead of the article. The WW3 comment was never denied or withdrawn. No apology was requested from the papers by the govt people handling REMAIN at that time.

    Indeed it would be an extraordinary coincidence that so many papers had similar headlines if they hadn't been briefed along those lines.
    Exactly. But people who say otherwise clearly have no experience in how these matters work. They need to seek the insight from people such as Plato and a few minor players such as myself.
    :blush:
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Jonathan

    'In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.'

    Having a laugh ?
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    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Not if they want any access to our waters for their fishing boats.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    I remember on Brexit night finding this classic Tango ad very apt for the Brexiteer approach to our relationships with the EU (as you watch it think of it as our response to Cameron's "renegotiation"). Now with Boris, Davies and Fox doing the Brexiting on behalf of HMG... wow, this shit's got real. :D:D

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnuDHC-qh8
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    The FO is a great example of regulatory capture. Europhiles to a man. Comrade Johnson should get the show trials and purges rolling forthwith.
    There is something in that, which is another reason to worry about putting an inexperienced, don't-do-detail, lightweight as SoS. As I said last night the FCO really does need a big heavyweight with a vision, shared with the PM so he/she knows that they have support, to reset it (and sack a lot of the senior staff).

    I very much fear that Johnson is going to be a disaster. Then we have Davis's department treading on FCO toes and Fox's lot blundering about. Well, I very much fear the outcome will be suboptimal to say the least.
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    MP_SE said:

    Scott_P said:

    @wdjstraw: Delighted to hear that a Remainer will be foreign secretary #BoJo

    I wonder what serial failure Will Straw will turn his hand to next.
    He now retweets stuff from "holding Vote Leave to account". He just cannot accept defeat. He also has no Labour party to go back to. Next stop a charity role?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @alauraschneider: German TV news presenters can't help laughing as they announce #BorisJohnson as Britain's new Foreign Minister.

    So that's USA and Germany...

    Lucky we don't have any big diplomatic discussions coming up with either of them.

    The only joke is the EU project which the German media fanatically support.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    MP_SE said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alauraschneider: German TV news presenters can't help laughing as they announce #BorisJohnson as Britain's new Foreign Minister.

    So that's USA and Germany...

    Lucky we don't have any big diplomatic discussions coming up with either of them.

    The only joke is the EU project which the German media fanatically support.
    Yup. Britain is going to treat the EU with the contempt it deserves.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    john_zims said:

    @Jonathan

    'In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.'

    Having a laugh ?

    With Boris Johnson our top diplomat,of course I'm bloody laughing. Everyone is laughing.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I remember on Brexit night finding this classic Tango ad very apt for the Brexiteer approach to our relationships with the EU (as you watch it think of it as our response to Cameron's "renegotiation"). Now with Boris, Davies and Fox doing the Brexiting on behalf of HMG... wow, this shit's got real.

    There was an article before the vote that described the Brexiteer approach to foreign negotiations, which was turning up in Union Jack underpants shouting "OK, who wants some"

    I shall now be unable to disentangle that from an image of Boris
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs.

    Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
    The sentimental attachment people have to a customs union with delusions of political grandeur is baffling. The EU is just one supranational organisation of many. We would do far better to help strengthen the WTO's mission.

    We will have plenty of opportunities to cooperate with Europe. May is, above all, a pragmatist.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Not if they want any access to our waters for their fishing boats.
    Fishermen versus bankers. Ha, ha, ha. That is going to go one way. Anyway brits fish more EU than EU fish from Brit water. Sorry, the capital's services exports are effed.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @alauraschneider: German TV news presenters can't help laughing as they announce #BorisJohnson as Britain's new Foreign Minister.
    So that's USA and Germany...
    Lucky we don't have any big diplomatic discussions coming up with either of them.

    Scott_P How about enlightening us on what you do or did in your past work?
    You seem to pick the side that is pro REMAIN and pro Osborne/Cameron. is this based on....
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Jonathan said:

    john_zims said:

    @Jonathan

    'In every role this govt is weaker than its predecessor.'

    Having a laugh ?

    With Boris Johnson our top diplomat,of course I'm bloody laughing. Everyone is laughing.
    If Emily Thornberry ever got her hands on the job, we would all be crying.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs.

    Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
    The sentimental attachment people have to a customs union with delusions of political grandeur is baffling.
    It is odd...

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Not if they want any access to our waters for their fishing boats.
    Fishermen versus bankers. Ha, ha, ha. That is going to go one way. Anyway brits fish more EU than EU fish from Brit water. Sorry, the capital's services exports are effed.
    I assume you mean financial services passporting? Do you know how much that is worth to the UK? I'll let our city folk talk you through it.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Not if they want any access to our waters for their fishing boats.
    I'm hoping we'll be out of the CAP and CFP.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    @HurstLlama (sorry, having trouble quoting);

    Yes, Mr Llama, that would be my dream. Where every teacher is ultimately answerable to the parents. Morgan, indeed, tried to make them more remote, for which I have not forgiven her.

    I do not like Gove, but equally I dislike the education establishment (says somebody who was interviewed for SLT a month ago after three years in teaching...). I don't give a stuff what they think. Sod them all and let's do what's best for the children so they get the best education and we can rebuild this country from there.

    How does that sound to you as an ex-teacher, Mr Llama? I didn't only go into teaching because of the recession in HE. If I didn't really believe I could do something worthwhile there, I'd quit and do something much less onerous and stressful. A politician who keeps out of my way would be a huge improvement.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    I'm hoping Theresa will set up some sort of "cross party" Brexit committee tomorrow and get Gisela, Frank Field, etc. To be part of it.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Not if they want any access to our waters for their fishing boats.
    Fishermen versus bankers. Ha, ha, ha. That is going to go one way. Anyway brits fish more EU than EU fish from Brit water. Sorry, the capital's services exports are effed.
    I assume you mean financial services passporting? Do you know how much that is worth to the UK? I'll let our city folk talk you through it.
    It's worth a lot. The ultras who think half a dozen EU cities don't want a share of that business in the event of no free movement are deluded. The price for passporting will be free movement. That, at least, should be clear. At least it will be BREXITers who are presenting this choice to the people. Some justice in the world.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs.

    Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
    The sentimental attachment people have to a customs union with delusions of political grandeur is baffling. The EU is just one supranational organisation of many. We would do far better to help strengthen the WTO's mission.

    We will have plenty of opportunities to cooperate with Europe. May is, above all, a pragmatist.
    The EU is clearly not just like any other supranational organisation. It's a project to create a European federation and has no parallel with the likes of the WTO.

    If the EU were so interchangeable with other international organisations it wouldn't have created such deep and bitter political splits.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,848
    edited July 2016
    eek said:



    David's article on conhome is a good read if you haven't read it. http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

    It's more detailed than most of the others - at least he covers things that need to be discovered and discussed before triggering article 50...


    That doesn't give me a lot of confidence as a pointer for successful Brexit negotiations. David David seems to suffer a lot of wishful thinking while disparaging the interests of the other side. We're in a very constrained negotiation where the other side controls the process and largely the timing too, while being less affected by the outcome of the deal and the time it takes to get one. You want someone who can make the most of a relatively weak hand.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,341
    Some 'interesting' appointments by May. I can only assume that resurrecting Fox and Davis is some kind of decapitation strategy: aiming to deny the headbangers on the back-benches any faintly credible totems. Boris is the very personification of Leave, so if it all goes wrong and the government can't fix it, it will now be entirely his fault.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    The lead story on both Der Spiegel and Le Monde is about Boris as FS.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    FF43 said:

    eek said:



    David's article on conhome is a good read if you haven't read it. http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

    It's more detailed than most of the others - at least he covers things that need to be discovered and discussed before triggering article 50...


    That doesn't give me a lot of confidence as a pointer for successful Brexit negotiations. David David seems to suffer a lot of wishful thinking while disparaging the interests of the other side. We're in a very constrained negotiation where the other side controls the process and largely the timing too, while being less affected by the outcome of the deal and the time it takes to get one. You want someone who can make the most of a relatively weak hand.
    Realistically that is the Prime Minister, and the plan is that if Brexit goes well she will take the credit, while...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548

    The lead story on both Der Spiegel and Le Monde is about Boris as FS.

    Let me guess- with *that* photograph to illustrate it...?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs. Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
    I was involved in Government relations in the period 1980 to 1990 and can tell you how our standing in the world leaped under Thatcher. We went from a basket case to being admired. Trade doors opened just because we were a British company. Thatcher had not spent one day as even a junior FO minister prior to being our PM. Have you no sense of pride in your country? We are a great country with a great future ahead of us.
    You're saying that since you believe that Thatcher was a great PM despite lack of foreign affairs experience, it's positively desirable to appoint a Foreign Secretary without foreign affairs experience, and who was recently derided by the new PM for his lack of it?

    It's a view.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016
    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Is that such a great loss?

    "4) FX is London's largest market and is irrelevant to being in the EU or "Passported", It is London's Largest cash source and it can be traded anywhere in the world. It is traded in London for reasons of skill sets, language, history, infrastructure. The Infrastructure would take at least 10 years to replicate, theoretically it could be but why?

    5) Passporting wasn't perfect anyway. It didn't work which is why you saw announcements of banks moving some operations to Europe/Philippines/Bombay. You don't plan this on a whim."

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1154756/#Comment_1154756

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    ydoethur said:

    The lead story on both Der Spiegel and Le Monde is about Boris as FS.

    Let me guess- with *that* photograph to illustrate it...?
    Nope.. With the wave to the press coming out of Number 10.
  • Options
    Is there going to be a proper candidate for Labour leader? I have laid someone I have never heard of until this week for couple of grand because I read he had pulled out, which turned out to be a ramp.
    My betting book is going to be a bit of a mess if the reserve stalking horse becomes favourite.

  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    Back to the great Nick of old! There was some imposter masquerading as you these past few months.

    Anyway, that post is bang on.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548

    ydoethur said:

    The lead story on both Der Spiegel and Le Monde is about Boris as FS.

    Let me guess- with *that* photograph to illustrate it...?
    Nope.. With the wave to the press coming out of Number 10.
    Let us be grateful for small mercies!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    The lead story on both Der Spiegel and Le Monde is about Boris as FS.

    He'd look great in Lederhosen.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    Some 'interesting' appointments by May. I can only assume that resurrecting Fox and Davis is some kind of decapitation strategy: aiming to deny the headbangers on the back-benches any faintly credible totems. Boris is the very personification of Leave, so if it all goes wrong and the government can't fix it, it will now be entirely his fault.

    If it "all goes wrong and the government can't fix out" they'll all be out on the arses, LOL
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PA: This is how @angelaeagle reacted the moment she found out Boris Johnson was the new foreign secretary

    #reshuffle
    https://t.co/1MPy3BsdHB
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Not if they want any access to our waters for their fishing boats.
    Fishermen versus bankers. Ha, ha, ha. That is going to go one way. Anyway brits fish more EU than EU fish from Brit water. Sorry, the capital's services exports are effed.
    For better or worse, I suspect that a substantial majority of the UK electorate doesn't give two fucks about bankers, unless punishment is involved.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Is that such a great loss?

    "4) FX is London's largest market and is irrelevant to being in the EU or "Passported", It is London's Largest cash source and it can be traded anywhere in the world. It is traded in London for reasons of skill sets, language, history, infrastructure. The Infrastructure would take at least 10 years to replicate, theoretically it could be but why?

    5) Passporting wasn't perfect anyway. It didn't work which is why you saw announcements of banks moving some operations to Europe/Philippines/Bombay. You don't plan this on a whim."

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1154756/#Comment_1154756

    Well yeah, of course the UK doesn't need to export financial services cheaply to the EU. Why didn't I read that one comment by a visitor to PB.
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    Look at this prime example of a twerp that is actually paid to write for the Economist.

    Jeremy Cliffe ‏@JeremyCliffe 2h2 hours ago
    "David Davis to lead Brexit negotiations. Has Eurosceptic bona fides, but actual knowledge of EU or other European capitals? Not so much."

    Cliffe, just could not bother to check out that Davis was our Europe Minister for almost 3 YEARS!!!! in Major's Govt and handled Maastricht through the HoC. Yet Cliffe posts endlessly on how badly this Brexit is going.... day after day after day...

    What is it about the Economist these days that they pay people to write such inaccurate misleading tripe? All Cliffe had to do was look it up on wikipedia....
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457
    GIN1138 said:

    Some 'interesting' appointments by May. I can only assume that resurrecting Fox and Davis is some kind of decapitation strategy: aiming to deny the headbangers on the back-benches any faintly credible totems. Boris is the very personification of Leave, so if it all goes wrong and the government can't fix it, it will now be entirely his fault.

    If it "all goes wrong and the government can't fix out" they'll all be out on the arses, LOL
    Absolutely hope not as they would be filled by remainers - we must Brexit
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KeirSimmons: Boris role not looking as good across the pond as you might have expected... https://t.co/KHoHtF5cam
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    Sorry Nick, but two-thirds of current Labour seats voted Leave (as well as most of their target seats). There's simply no case that it's in Labour political interests to run on a pro-EU ticket.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Everyone in Europe knows Boris and he is widely regarded as a joke. He has insulted all major political figures in the US. It's not a very good appointment on the face of it. He'll have a lot of fences to mend.
    https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Some 'interesting' appointments by May. I can only assume that resurrecting Fox and Davis is some kind of decapitation strategy: aiming to deny the headbangers on the back-benches any faintly credible totems. Boris is the very personification of Leave, so if it all goes wrong and the government can't fix it, it will now be entirely his fault.

    Newsnight should be fun. I have been trying to grasp May's thinking - so far I have had no joy.

    After laughing, the first thing my wife (a normal, well balanced woman, ergo not interested in politics) said when she saw the headline was "water cannon". I'd forgotten all about that one!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    @KeirSimmons: Boris role not looking as good across the pond as you might have expected... https://t.co/KHoHtF5cam

    What is 'ameriblog'?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Danny565 said:


    Sorry Nick, but two-thirds of current Labour seats voted Leave (as well as most of their target seats). There's simply no case that it's in Labour political interests to run on a pro-EU ticket.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election

    Quite right. Not sure why Labour is trying to park its tanks on this particular Lib Dem turf !
    Shoo :p
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    stjohn said:



    Nick. Do you see any value amongst the contenders for the Labour leadership election or is that putting you on the spot?

    I think Corbyn has a fight on his hands after the NEC fix of the electorate. But the Betfair odds are strange - they put Smith and Corbyn roughly equal at just over evens, and Eagle out at 15. I'd think it a toss-up which of them becomes the stronger challenger - Eagle has certainly been much more prominent in recent years. Probably should be Corbyn evens, Smith and Eagle 2-1.

    But DYOR - I'm not involved in this at the moment (just off to the States for 3 weeks) and have no inside info.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Danny565 said:


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    Sorry Nick, but two-thirds of current Labour seats voted Leave (as well as most of their target seats). There's simply no case that it's in Labour political interests to run on a pro-EU ticket.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election
    The referendum was not under FPP... Read Nick's post again...
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    Danny565 said:


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    Sorry Nick, but two-thirds of current Labour seats voted Leave (as well as most of their target seats). There's simply no case that it's in Labour political interests to run on a pro-EU ticket.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election
    40, 45 per cent remain voters would be enough to win most seats if the anti vote is split between Ukip and Tories and the others stay becalmed.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Jonathan

    'With Boris Johnson our top diplomat,of course I'm bloody laughing. Everyone is laughing'.


    Mayor of London for 8 years & just led a successful referendum campaign unlike the three numpties that are competing to lead the Labour party who have achieved zilch.
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    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    Yes NickP evenly divided and you will lose the half that want to LEAVE dropping your support closer to 20% than 30%.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Is that such a great loss?

    "4) FX is London's largest market and is irrelevant to being in the EU or "Passported", It is London's Largest cash source and it can be traded anywhere in the world. It is traded in London for reasons of skill sets, language, history, infrastructure. The Infrastructure would take at least 10 years to replicate, theoretically it could be but why?

    5) Passporting wasn't perfect anyway. It didn't work which is why you saw announcements of banks moving some operations to Europe/Philippines/Bombay. You don't plan this on a whim."

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1154756/#Comment_1154756

    Well yeah, of course the UK doesn't need to export financial services cheaply to the EU. Why didn't I read that one comment by a visitor to PB.
    Is he wrong?

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    SeanT said:

    Boris will probably be the smartest, best educated and most erudite British Foreign Secretary in two generations. He's a great advert for optimistic Brexit Britain.

    Bright? Yes. Hugely flawed and hampered by a galactic ego.



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    DaveDaveDaveDave Posts: 76

    I remember on Brexit night finding this classic Tango ad very apt for the Brexiteer approach to our relationships with the EU (as you watch it think of it as our response to Cameron's "renegotiation"). Now with Boris, Davies and Fox doing the Brexiting on behalf of HMG... wow, this shit's got real. :D:D

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnuDHC-qh8

    I love that advert. It absolutely personifies the way I feel.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    john_zims said:

    @Jonathan

    'With Boris Johnson our top diplomat,of course I'm bloody laughing. Everyone is laughing'.


    Mayor of London for 8 years & just led a successful referendum campaign unlike the three numpties that are competing to lead the Labour party who have achieved zilch.

    "Successful" in the sense of winning the most votes. But international diplomacy isn't about winning votes. It is about outcomes, and the outcomes of Brexit so far are not such to increase the opinion of other people about British political capacity.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    This must be some kind of contrarian theory, right?
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Scott_P said:

    @PA: This is how @angelaeagle reacted the moment she found out Boris Johnson was the new foreign secretary

    #reshuffle
    https://t.co/1MPy3BsdHB

    Pissing off Labour AND foreigners - this is genius stuff.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    David Davis - Secretary of State for European Union Relations? - What kind of a title is that ?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,848
    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:



    David's article on conhome is a good read if you haven't read it. http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

    It's more detailed than most of the others - at least he covers things that need to be discovered and discussed before triggering article 50...


    That doesn't give me a lot of confidence as a pointer for successful Brexit negotiations. David David seems to suffer a lot of wishful thinking while disparaging the interests of the other side. We're in a very constrained negotiation where the other side controls the process and largely the timing too, while being less affected by the outcome of the deal and the time it takes to get one. You want someone who can make the most of a relatively weak hand.
    Realistically that is the Prime Minister, and the plan is that if Brexit goes well she will take the credit, while...
    The thing is, Brexit is not taking place in a vacuum. The idea that David Davis or another can screw up the negotiations and then we can carry on as if nothing had happened just doesn't fly. We need a reasonable deal, reasonably quickly simply to contain the damage.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2016
    EPG said:

    Danny565 said:


    That is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick with your working class voters NickP. But since the Labour party has abandoned its old core vote, so be it.

    First, the election at hand is among members, not voters in general. Working-class Labour members are generally pro-EU, like the TUC. Second, my recollection (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Labour-voting working class voters were evenly divided on Brexit.

    It's undoubtedly true that there are ex-Labour working-class voters who've defected to UKIP over immigraiton (less so over Brexit specifically). But Smith doesn't really need to address that problem right now.
    Sorry Nick, but two-thirds of current Labour seats voted Leave (as well as most of their target seats). There's simply no case that it's in Labour political interests to run on a pro-EU ticket.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election
    40, 45 per cent remain voters would be enough to win most seats if the anti vote is split between Ukip and Tories and the others stay becalmed.
    Firstly, you're making the assumption that all Remain voters would vote Labour, That seems incredibly dubious -- we know a huge plank of the Remain vote were wealthy middle-class ultra-Tories who hate immigration and "our laws being made by Brussels" as much as anyone, but who just feared the economic turmoil.

    Secondly, there are lots of current Labour seats in the North where the Remain vote was 35% or lower, anyway.

    A Labour Party which makes being pro-EU its main crusade is a recipe for complete wipeout outside of London.
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    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    When was the last time a Foreign Secretary was appointed who had no experience in government, in shadowing a government position, or in overseas affairs?..........

    and these Foreign Secys were so wonderful exactly when? Over recent decades the FO has gone down and down as it pushed its europhile line and is a shadow of its former position as a great department.
    That's not an argument for appointing someone with no experience either in government or in foreign affairs. Britain's role in the world can't be restored to what it was. I only hope Boris screws up and leaves sooner rather than later.
    I was involved in Government relations in the period 1980 to 1990 and can tell you how our standing in the world leaped under Thatcher. We went from a basket case to being admired. Trade doors opened just because we were a British company. Thatcher had not spent one day as even a junior FO minister prior to being our PM. Have you no sense of pride in your country? We are a great country with a great future ahead of us.
    You're saying that since you believe that Thatcher was a great PM despite lack of foreign affairs experience, it's positively desirable to appoint a Foreign Secretary without foreign affairs experience, and who was recently derided by the new PM for his lack of it?
    It's a view.
    No i am not. What I am saying is that it is not essential to have spent time in foreign matters. Now in Boris's case he actually has taken part in overseas trade and relations visits and is fluent in a couple of other languages etc.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    Look at this prime example of a twerp that is actually paid to write for the Economist.

    Jeremy Cliffe ‏@JeremyCliffe 2h2 hours ago
    "David Davis to lead Brexit negotiations. Has Eurosceptic bona fides, but actual knowledge of EU or other European capitals? Not so much."

    Cliffe, just could not bother to check out that Davis was our Europe Minister for almost 3 YEARS!!!! in Major's Govt and handled Maastricht through the HoC. Yet Cliffe posts endlessly on how badly this Brexit is going.... day after day after day...

    What is it about the Economist these days that they pay people to write such inaccurate misleading tripe? All Cliffe had to do was look it up on wikipedia....

    It's a pathetic magazine written by kids
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    SeanT said:

    Boris will probably be the smartest, best educated and most erudite British Foreign Secretary in two generations. He's a great advert for optimistic Brexit Britain.
    FFS the last EU Foreign Secretary was Cathy Ashton, whose main prior job was Parliamentary Under-Secretary in the Department for Constitutional Affairs, with responsibilities including "the National Archives and the Public Guardianship Office". Her education comprised a Sociology Degree from Bedford College.

    Well said.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    ydoethur said:

    @HurstLlama (sorry, having trouble quoting);

    Yes, Mr Llama, that would be my dream. Where every teacher is ultimately answerable to the parents. Morgan, indeed, tried to make them more remote, for which I have not forgiven her.

    I do not like Gove, but equally I dislike the education establishment (says somebody who was interviewed for SLT a month ago after three years in teaching...). I don't give a stuff what they think. Sod them all and let's do what's best for the children so they get the best education and we can rebuild this country from there.

    How does that sound to you as an ex-teacher, Mr Llama? I didn't only go into teaching because of the recession in HE. If I didn't really believe I could do something worthwhile there, I'd quit and do something much less onerous and stressful. A politician who keeps out of my way would be a huge improvement.

    We are just about soul-mates, Doctor, well at least when it comes to education. I, perhaps being older and coming in for my third career, just would not put up with the shit you do. I love my subject and really wanted to communicate and spread that love (and get my pupils through their exams) but all I got was process. Everyone around me was focussed on process and getting the maximum number of pupils through the lowest standard that HMG had deemed acceptable, not about trying to ensure every pupil reached their potential.

    Drove me up the wall, I quit and took myself off to training senior/strategic managers. It paid a lot more and there was no fecking ofsted idiot telling me I was doing it wrong
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    The only thing you fear more than Brexit being a failure is Brexit being a success.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited July 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @KeirSimmons: Boris role not looking as good across the pond as you might have expected... https://t.co/KHoHtF5cam

    What is 'ameriblog'?
    Extreme progressive blog, hardly middle America.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    Scott_P said:

    @KeirSimmons: Boris role not looking as good across the pond as you might have expected... https://t.co/KHoHtF5cam

    Has Theresa May just handed Trump a huge credibility boost? He can now repeat all of this as being the opinion of the British Foreign Secretary.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Cliffe, just could not bother to check out that Davis was our Europe Minister for almost 3 YEARS!!!! in Major's Govt and handled Maastricht through the HoC. Yet Cliffe posts endlessly on how badly this Brexit is going.... day after day after day...

    What is it about the Economist these days that they pay people to write such inaccurate misleading tripe? All Cliffe had to do was look it up on wikipedia....

    He should have a listen to the recent episode of The Reunion about that topic.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0783m5p
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    SeanT said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May has gone very brexit heavy in the 'outward facing' brexit related departments. The reasons for this could be:

    1) Scapegoating - she wants to ensure that any brexit FUBARs don't fall on her head.
    2) Compromise - she was never a europhile remainer anyway, so no ideological reason to be against brexit, so why choose that hill to die on? Give the Bastards their Brexit and she may be able to crack on with what she really cares about without too much pushback.
    3) Backsliding - A brexiteer can go for EU-lite in a way that a Remainer couldn't.

    Theory running on Twitter it gives her cover for a "Norway" deal in short order
    David Davis seems to favour 100% Brexit though?

    I'd be OK with Norway personally, but having David Davis in this role makes me think we're going go full Brexit?
    We at the very least need Norway with bells on. We're a way bigger market to the EU than they are. Someone needs to get rid of the 'mug' sign we have stuck to our national forehead.
    In his ConHome article he's hanging tough on free movement.

    "Once the European nations realise that we are not going to budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk, in their own interest."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html
    And it is unambiguously in the own interests of Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and even Dublin to exclude the UK from service sector passporting. Then the UK will be a happy little island alone.
    Is that such a great loss?

    "4) FX

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1154756/#Comment_1154756

    Well yeah, of course the UK doesn't need to export financial services cheaply to the EU. Why didn't I read that one comment by a visitor to PB.
    Here in Switzerland they're taking the view that German industry will be desperate to maintain free trade with the UK, come what may, and will persuade less eager nations to do a deal on Free Movement.

    The price won't be passporting, it will be continuing significant UK contributions to the EU. We won't get that £350m back for the NHS.
    It's a view, one which reflects its region of origin of course. Of course you can have free trade with an FTA outside the single market.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @PA: This is how @angelaeagle reacted the moment she found out Boris Johnson was the new foreign secretary

    #reshuffle
    https://t.co/1MPy3BsdHB

    Labour are a complete and utter irrelevance. A joke of a party who would be better suited to JCR politics.
This discussion has been closed.