Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s future – the wait goes on

24

Comments

  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    The public may not care what the PLP thinks, but the public don't tend to have confidence in leaders who cannot command the confidence of their parliamentary parties. See Ed Miliband (who MPs never wanted) Gordon Brown (his MPs tried to stage a coup against him), IDS (his MPs successfully got him to resign) and so on.

    Of all the many complaints I heard from people I heard about Brown and Miliband, I can't say "their MPs don't like them" was ever one of the more frequent ones.

    If anything, the comparison of Miliband and Cameron in the lead-up to 2015 shows just how little MPs' "loyalty to the leader" matters to the public -- Tory MPs had been MUCH more (vocally) critical of Cameron in the run-up to the election, than Lab MPs had been of Miliband, but the public didn't care.
    Obviously, your average person will not say 'I don't like them because their MPs don't.' But it's a sign. If you cannot command the confidence of your MPs, then you are unlikely to command the confidence of the public.

    I don't recall Tory MPs being more critical of Cameron than Labour ones were of Miliband, I have to say. I never thought of the Tories as a party who had no faith whatsoever in Cameron. Whereas for years Labour MPs had had huge doubts about Ed Miliband.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Possibly one of the biggest myths it's that it's only New Labourites who oppose Corbyn. I know Labour voters from all walks of life who want Corbyn gone and fear for Labour's future if he stays. None of them liked New Labour or Tony Blair.

    And which Labour politician do they say would be better?
    Any of them at thus stage. You can't go into a GE, let alone form a govt with your entire parliamentary party having no confidence in you. It would be a bloodbath.
    The public couldn't care less about what the parliamentary party thinks -- after all, two thirds of Labour seats just roundly ignored Labour MPs' recommendation on the EU.

    Corbyn's very big problems are his complete lack of charisma, implausibility as a PM, and various principles which the public don't agree with -- but the charisma vacuum of Angela Eagle following the doomed Remain campaign strategy would be even worse on all counts, with a huge party split from infuriated grassroots members thrown in additionally.
    Corbyn doesn't entirely lack charisma. He's way more charismatic than Cooper, Burnham, Miliband - that's why the members love him. The problem is that the charisma only works on a few hundred thousand people, not the millions Labour need.
    Indeed Corbyn is weirdly charismatic albeit in a Marmite kind of way.
    Yup. For instance I thought his speech at the Durham Miners Gala (jeez, we really are in the 70s) was frankly rather good. Authentic, passionate, fiery, with a hint of wit. Why can't the Blairite drones do this stuff?

    Of course everything Corbyn said was nonsense on analysis, but I I can see why earnest but disillusioned youngsters (and oldsters) find it relatively compelling.
    You'll know for sure you're back in the 70s when Jeux Sans Frontieres is back - or would it be It's a Knockout post Brexit?

    - or the Bay City Rollers are back and all the girls scream for Woody...
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    By obsessively opposing Blair, Corbyn has come to resemble him.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    G-live: - Hang on, maybe this won’t take quite as long as we anticipated.

    — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) July 12, 2016

    NEC member: "Still debating legal advice. Vote in next half hour maybe."

    Then again, four crates of sandwiches have now into Labout HQ in the last half an hour apparently. (crates?)
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    SeanT said:

    Corbyn doesn't entirely lack charisma. He's way more charismatic than Cooper, Burnham, Miliband - that's why the members love him. The problem is that the charisma only works on a few hundred thousand people, not the millions Labour need.

    Nonsense Corbyn has millions of supporters. Admittedly most of them live in Cuba and Venezuela so they aren't much use for winning UK elections.

  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    G-live: - Hang on, maybe this won’t take quite as long as we anticipated.

    — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) July 12, 2016

    NEC member: "Still debating legal advice. Vote in next half hour maybe."

    Then again, four crates of sandwiches have now into Labout HQ in the last half an hour apparently. (crates?)

    Either way they vote on this issue, they would then have to debate the rules for the leadership contest.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    edited July 2016
    Mr. T, bloody hell. I was just about to leave. How long from the vote to us actually learning the result? I know there's only 32 or so of them, but the way they've been going it could be a while.

    Incidentally, I can neither confirm nor deny reports that the Corbynistas and Blairite pigdogs are in a bidding war for use of the space cannon. I have asked the octo-lemur what will happen, but they were too busy laughing to reply.

    Edited extra bit: incidentally, worth noting the octo-lemur got the referendum result spot on.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Not too sure which happens first ....

    1. Michael Gove's finishes his launch speech
    2. Manned flight to Mars
    3. Tonights Labour NEC meeting concludes
    4. Spurs win the Premiership title
    5. Theresa May completes her third term
    6. Nick Palmer critical of the Labour party
    7. President Putin comes out of the closet
    8. Andrea Leadsom becomes Pope .... again
    9. Robert Smithson joins the Liberal Democrats
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Eek, it's MPs and MEPs, though. He might get something like 25-30 MPs. Could the MEPs get him over the line?

    Mr. Jonathan, worse than the end of the Coalition? Yes. Worse than when he took over from Brown? No.

    AAA Brown handed over a golden legacy compared to this crock of shit.
    That's not true. Brown destroyed the party from within to cement his position. That's why you have no leaders or anyone even close to being one. Make no mistake, Brown is largely to blame.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Mr. T, bloody hell. I was just about to leave. How long from the vote to us actually learning the result? I know there's only 32 or so of them, but the way they've been going it could be a while.

    Half the NEC appears to be live texting various journos so we will find out soon enough.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I've got it: the NEC is simply waiting for Jez to die of old age.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    MontyHall said:

    MontyHall said:

    Possibly one of the biggest myths it's that it's only New Labourites who oppose Corbyn. I know Labour voters from all walks of life who want Corbyn gone and fear for Labour's future if he stays. None of them liked New Labour or Tony Blair.

    Why not let him stand for re election and defeat him then, rather than desperately try to keep him off the ballot?
    Probably because the members will re-elect Corbyn and kill the Labour party off in the process.
    That's democracy for you, it's a free market not a closed shop
    Has anyone stopped to think though... if the members are out of step with public opinion, then their claim to Corbyn as PM is a revolutionary one.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Possibly one of the biggest myths it's that it's only New Labourites who oppose Corbyn. I know Labour voters from all walks of life who want Corbyn gone and fear for Labour's future if he stays. None of them liked New Labour or Tony Blair.

    And which Labour politician do they say would be better?
    Any of them at thus stage. You can't go into a GE, let alone form a govt with your entire parliamentary party having no confidence in you. It would be a bloodbath.
    The public couldn't care less about what the parliamentary party thinks -- after all, two thirds of Labour seats just roundly ignored Labour MPs' recommendation on the EU.

    Corbyn's very big problems are his complete lack of charisma, implausibility as a PM, and various principles which the public don't agree with -- but the charisma vacuum of Angela Eagle following the doomed Remain campaign strategy would be even worse on all counts, with a huge party split from infuriated grassroots members thrown in additionally.
    Corbyn doesn't entirely lack charisma. He's way more charismatic than Cooper, Burnham, Miliband - that's why the members love him. The problem is that the charisma only works on a few hundred thousand people, not the millions Labour need.
    Indeed Corbyn is weirdly charismatic albeit in a Marmite kind of way.
    Yup. For instance I thought his speech at the Durham Miners Gala (jeez, we really are in the 70s) was frankly rather good. Authentic, passionate, fiery, with a hint of wit. Why can't the Blairite drones do this stuff?

    Of course everything Corbyn said was nonsense on analysis, but I I can see why earnest but disillusioned youngsters (and oldsters) find it relatively compelling.
    Are there really any miners left in Durham, or were they instead lookalikes bused in?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    If you cannot command the confidence of your MPs, then you are unlikely to command the confidence of the public.

    By the same logic, if a party leader can't even command the confidence of party members, and can't win a fair party election where their main rival is on the ballot paper, they are also very unlikely to command the confidence of the public, no?
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    SeanT said:

    This summer of politics is like the 2005 Ashes. You knew after that series that cricket could never be that exciting again. Simply impossible. Drama sustained to the final hours...

    We are living through history here. Enjoy.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    G-live: - Hang on, maybe this won’t take quite as long as we anticipated.

    — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) July 12, 2016

    NEC member: "Still debating legal advice. Vote in next half hour maybe."

    Then again, four crates of sandwiches have now into Labout HQ in the last half an hour apparently. (crates?)

    Maybe they mean kraits....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_krait
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I wouldn't put it past the NEC to still vote Jezza on the ballot. Politics these days is full of plot twists.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
  • Options
    MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226

    Background information from Private Eye on how Angela Eagle was selected as Labour Candidate for Wallasey. I am sure @The_Apocalypse would approve.

    https://twitter.com/Kipperwacker/status/752925691616854016

    I actually care about having a functioning opposition, believe it or not. That's what I would 'approve' of.
    As long as pesky voters do not get in the way. Maybe you are looking at a form of "guided democracy".
    Utterly depressing to see so many people more in favour of Iron Curtain style politics than open democracy. It goes to show how completely uninterested in the will of the people both major parties are
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Possibly one of the biggest myths it's that it's only New Labourites who oppose Corbyn. I know Labour voters from all walks of life who want Corbyn gone and fear for Labour's future if he stays. None of them liked New Labour or Tony Blair.

    And which Labour politician do they say would be better?
    Any of them at thus stage. You can't go into a GE, let alone form a govt with your entire parliamentary party having no confidence in you. It would be a bloodbath.
    The public couldn't care less about what the parliamentary party thinks -- after all, two thirds of Labour seats just roundly ignored Labour MPs' recommendation on the EU.

    Corbyn's very big problems are his complete lack of charisma, implausibility as a PM, and various principles which the public don't agree with -- but the charisma vacuum of Angela Eagle following the doomed Remain campaign strategy would be even worse on all counts, with a huge party split from infuriated grassroots members thrown in additionally.
    Corbyn doesn't entirely lack charisma. He's way more charismatic than Cooper, Burnham, Miliband - that's why the members love him. The problem is that the charisma only works on a few hundred thousand people, not the millions Labour need.
    Indeed Corbyn is weirdly charismatic albeit in a Marmite kind of way.
    Yup. For instance I thought his speech at the Durham Miners Gala (jeez, we really are in the 70s) was frankly rather good. Authentic, passionate, fiery, with a hint of wit. Why can't the Blairite drones do this stuff?

    Of course everything Corbyn said was nonsense on analysis, but I I can see why earnest but disillusioned youngsters (and oldsters) find it relatively compelling.
    Are there really any miners left in Durham, or were they instead lookalikes bused in?
    Nope. It's now just a heritage show offshoot of Beamish..
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Freggles said:

    Polruan said:

    Welcome to the night of the blunt knives (episode 94)

    Seriously, how do any of this rabble think they can be credible leaders of opposition to an entire government when they can't even oppose their own party effectively? It's embarrassing.

    Please explain what Tom Watson should have done differently

    Unilaterally changing Labour rules isn't an option (quiet at the back, BJO!)
    I think it's about to happen but that's by the by. The PLP should have waited until it could have lined up between a sufficiently charismatic candidate with a distinctive and compelling centre-left policy agenda and put a single challenger to the membership. If what we are hearing about Corbyn's loss of support is true, they'd take it about 60-40.

    If no candidate with a shred of vision and more appeal than Ed can be found then he should leave well alone.

    For what it's worth I think Smith may just about fit the bill, and will probably vote for him.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    JackW said:

    Not too sure which happens first ....

    1. Michael Gove's finishes his launch speech
    2. Manned flight to Mars
    3. Tonights Labour NEC meeting concludes
    4. Spurs win the Premiership title
    5. Theresa May completes her third term
    6. Nick Palmer critical of the Labour party
    7. President Putin comes out of the closet
    8. Andrea Leadsom becomes Pope .... again
    9. Robert Smithson joins the Liberal Democrats

    10. Falconer recognises his position is untenable.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094

    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.

    After this length of time it would be hilariously ironic.. It's gone on so long though that I do think its a perfectly orchestrated Watson stitch up..
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    The one good thing that Labour get out of their NEC palaver is that there is very little coverage of a Labour MP being tried for assault.

    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/st-helens-mp-marie-rimmer-11604119

    Although BBC Scotland are covering the story in their own, imitable style.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-36777655
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Michael Crick: each of 32 people round the table insist on contributing on every item of discussion, not once but twice.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2016
    Danny565 said:

    If you cannot command the confidence of your MPs, then you are unlikely to command the confidence of the public.

    By the same logic, if a party leader can't even command the confidence of party members, and can't win a fair party election where their main rival is on the ballot paper, they are also very unlikely to command the confidence of the public, no?
    No, because MPs actually care about winning GEs. As representatives of their constituents they have to care about the GBP's views. By contrast, party members are totally different demographic. They care more about ideological purity than winning GEs. Labour members hate Tony Blair, who won three GEs, but love Neil Kinnock, who won zero GEs for example.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,915

    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.

    Well I think a narrow loss is now most likely.

    This is only round 1, mind.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,915
    Mark Steel ‏@mrmarksteel Jul 11
    I expect Angela Eagle could marginally win a General Election, as long as she's allowed to keep the other parties off the ballot paper.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Polruan said:



    For what it's worth I think Smith may just about fit the bill, and will probably vote for him.

    Is Owen Smith really leadership material? I'm genuinely asking, I've barely ever seen/heard anything from him.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mark Steel ‏@mrmarksteel Jul 11
    I expect Angela Eagle could marginally win a General Election, as long as she's allowed to keep the other parties off the ballot paper.

    LOL!
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    If Corbyn makes the ballot and Eagle and Smith stand, Corbyn wins. Smith would need to see off Eagle to win.

    If Corbyn does not make the ballot, anyone might as well have a go. And there are much more electable figures than Smith.

    So why is he little better than 2/1?
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I refer the hon gentleman to my comment at 7.14pm
    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    SeanT said:

    This summer of politics is like the 2005 Ashes. You knew after that series that cricket could never be that exciting again. Simply impossible. Drama sustained to the final hours...

    I was in England then - we were going to church one sunday evening, and stopped in the car park to listen to the cricket. Other church goers gathered around, and eventually the rector came out to join us. After the game we all wandered inside and did our god bothering bit.

    Best Ashes series I remember.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Polruan said:

    Freggles said:

    Polruan said:

    Welcome to the night of the blunt knives (episode 94)

    Seriously, how do any of this rabble think they can be credible leaders of opposition to an entire government when they can't even oppose their own party effectively? It's embarrassing.

    Please explain what Tom Watson should have done differently

    Unilaterally changing Labour rules isn't an option (quiet at the back, BJO!)
    I think it's about to happen but that's by the by. The PLP should have waited until it could have lined up between a sufficiently charismatic candidate with a distinctive and compelling centre-left policy agenda and put a single challenger to the membership. If what we are hearing about Corbyn's loss of support is true, they'd take it about 60-40.

    If no candidate with a shred of vision and more appeal than Ed can be found then he should leave well alone.

    For what it's worth I think Smith may just about fit the bill, and will probably vote for him.
    They had to move now, I mean its possible that they aren't able to win over the NEC as things stand, but in a few months it would be next to impossible. This was their last chance to do something.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486

    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.

    Well I think a narrow loss is now most likely.

    This is only round 1, mind.
    So this is Heraclea not Asculum ;)
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    eek said:

    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.

    After this length of time it would be hilariously ironic.. It's gone on so long though that I do think its a perfectly orchestrated Watson stitch up..

    I just cannot see it, unfortunately. Labour will always find a way to make itself look even more ridiculous.

  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094

    Mark Steel ‏@mrmarksteel Jul 11
    I expect Angela Eagle could marginally win a General Election, as long as she's allowed to keep the other parties off the ballot paper.

    Don't you mean discard incorrectly filled in ballot slips.....
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:

    ToryJim said:

    So tomorrow is Cameron's last PMQs he and his team must be having a blast prepping for it as the PLP/NEC is serving up so much cracking material.

    Cameron should shut up and go quietly. Without doubt he has left the country and our political discourse in particular in a worse state than he found it.
    Seriously? I mean seriously? Are you for real?

    Cameron should get up there tomorrow and simply rip Labour a new one.

    Unfortunately it will be to little to late as the NEC whichever way they go look like doing that themselves without any help.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Lowlander said:

    The one good thing that Labour get out of their NEC palaver is that there is very little coverage of a Labour MP being tried for assault.

    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/st-helens-mp-marie-rimmer-11604119

    Although BBC Scotland are covering the story in their own, imitable style.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-36777655

    Amazing she was not suspended until the court case finishes.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Anyone who opines anything "clearly" has an agenda.

    The rule is, good case, 60% chance of winning. Great case, 65%, watertight 70%. Never believe anyone who says over that.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Tim_B said:

    stjohn said:

    Martha GillVerified account
    @Martha_Gill
    4 crates of sandwiches just went into lab hq #LabourNEC

    Only the beer needed now and we really are back in the late 1970s.

    Not quite ..... there won't be any smoke-filled rooms.
    .... or comrades.
    I can almost hear Vic Feather talking about "this great movement of ours" and his "members aspirations." Aspirations was a popular union word in the 70s.
    Not too many aspirations of course as they would end up voting Tory :wink:
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    If Corbyn wins today, do the PLP then go to court?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Look on the bright side - at least she's not called thrush, or house martin, or yellow throated warbler. Actually Angela Yellow Throated Warbler would be a wonderfully Pythonesque name: it's spelled 'vole strangler' but pronounced 'luxury yacht'.

    note to self: I must find something to occupy my mind.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    Only if they break it in two places. :smile:
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    You really are old labour.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Anyone who opines anything "clearly" has an agenda.

    The rule is, good case, 60% chance of winning. Great case, 65%, watertight 70%. Never believe anyone who says over that.
    This "Look at me, I'm a specialist" shit is just so embarrassing to real lawyers.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Moses_ said:

    Tim_B said:

    stjohn said:

    Martha GillVerified account
    @Martha_Gill
    4 crates of sandwiches just went into lab hq #LabourNEC

    Only the beer needed now and we really are back in the late 1970s.

    Not quite ..... there won't be any smoke-filled rooms.
    .... or comrades.
    I can almost hear Vic Feather talking about "this great movement of ours" and his "members aspirations." Aspirations was a popular union word in the 70s.
    Not too many aspirations of course as they would end up voting Tory :wink:
    The meaning of the word 'aspirations' has changed over time. It now refers to the moisture left on a plastic chair when you stand up on a hot day. :-)
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    ToryJim said:

    So tomorrow is Cameron's last PMQs he and his team must be having a blast prepping for it as the PLP/NEC is serving up so much cracking material.

    Cameron should shut up and go quietly. Without doubt he has left the country and our political discourse in particular in a worse state than he found it.
    I don't know about that, Tories united, out of the EU, Labour hopelessly split and stuck between the 70s and 80s. What's not to like? :smiley:
    Pound crashed. AAA a distant memory. Nation divided. Democracy screwed. Top Gear rubbish.
    You do remember that the UK lost its AAA rating in 2013, right? The nation was already divided, we just didn't talk about it - too busy patting ourselves on the back about how fabulous the economy was, and look, my house is 10% more valuable than last year.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Danny565 said:

    Polruan said:



    For what it's worth I think Smith may just about fit the bill, and will probably vote for him.

    Is Owen Smith really leadership material? I'm genuinely asking, I've barely ever seen/heard anything from him.
    I've only met him in a professional context (a tax avoidance discussion when he was shadow treasury) and he impressed me - we spoke for a while afterwards and he gave the impression of having read his briefing, thought about the subject, and being willing to listen before making evidence-based policy. I think I've encountered a good proportion of treasury/shadow treasury politicians in that kind of context over the last decade and most have seemed either out of their depth of ideologically fixated on certain approaches regardless of evidence. So that seemed good.

    Of course it might just be cos we agreed on some stuff...
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    The referendum is done. The Tories voted for someone on the Remain side, and she will be Prime Minister. You are implicitly supporting or equating Corbyn vis-a-vis Benn despite Corbyn's being more vocally on the Remain side than May!
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,826
    I don't see how Labour can get out of this pickle other than by reforming behind the wishes of the PLP.

    The members, the unions, the £3 members - all have to be abandoned, but perhaps only temporarily.

    The PLP need to just get together and work out what they want. Then re-engage with the rest of the party. Such a break is totally possible, and potentially fruitful. Breaking one side against another will be a disaster. (Disclaimer: I'm wildly unlikely to ever vote Labour)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Channel 4 News — voters in Stoke-on-Trent p***ed off with not having a Brexit PM.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. B, not necessarily, your bird wibbling amused me.

    I just want them to get on with it.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick: each of 32 people round the table insist on contributing on every item of discussion, not once but twice.

    Makes perfect sense. No conclusion to the meeting, no implosion of the Labour Party. Just swap the beer (has it arrived yet?) for hydrocyanic acid.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 53s53 seconds ago
    NEC vote shortly
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Someone wants to bet £4 @ 599/1 that John McDonnell will be the next Home Secretary. WHYYYY
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2016

    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.

    Well I think a narrow loss is now most likely.

    This is only round 1, mind.
    Trying to line up the next moves...

    NEC elections shift the balance to overturn the unfavourable decision?
    Constituency action - nominate him or else?
    Court Action?
    Corbyn resigns, creating a "vacancy", thereby lowering the threshold to one he might pass?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094
    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    None of the Labour party have a clue what their traditional voters think including both their MPs and the membership.... The disconnect is too great. Remember for many people they don't vote for the Labour party but for the non-tory party that can win....

    That's why the SNP got a clean sweep throughout Scotland and why someone (probably UKIP) will take over the North, Midlands and Wales.. Labour has to decide if they want to keep that vote or the metropolitan trendy left wing vote. It can't cater for both as post referendum the old WWC now has another option...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,222
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick: each of 32 people round the table insist on contributing on every item of discussion, not once but twice.

    They have 3 crates of sandwiches to keep them going apparently
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. T, Umunna is a slicker Ed Miliband. He's metropolitan through and through, and I'm not sure that's what Labour needs now, with UKIP surely knocking on Labour's northern doors.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    Is it time for the UN to step in and for Ban Ki Moon to mediate a peace deal between Corbyn and the PLP and oversee the transition?
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    saddened said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    You really are old labour.
    She was emoting while claiming Jeremy would not return her calls. Barbara Castle would have barged into his office and had it out with him, not blubbed to a passing TV reporter. Pathetic!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    Benn is dreadful. A boring technocrat. He was wretchedly poor during the referendum.

    Chuka Umunna was very good in the EUref, by contrast. And he's got that charisma. And his ethnicity makes him interesting (it shouldn't but it does).

    If Labour are just gonna force a leader on their members (like the Tories) they should go for Chuka, if he can be persuaded to overcome his *fears*
    The London rumour mill suggests that his run may be a few years off.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News — voters in Stoke-on-Trent p***ed off with not having a Brexit PM.

    The voters are watching Mrs May very closely.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    ToryJim said:

    Is it time for the UN to step in and for Ban Ki Moon to mediate a peace deal between Corbyn and the PLP and oversee the transition?

    Are you laying odds? :lol:
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News — voters in Stoke-on-Trent p***ed off with not having a Brexit PM.

    Which is why May would be crazy to risk a GE.

    Forget Labour - the risk would be a massive UKIP surge - taking mainly Lab but also some Con seats - and potentially enough to deny a Con majority.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. Jim, reckon that'll go about as well as the ruling against China today.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,222
    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    Fewer Labour voters voted Leave than Tory voters voted Remain, it was the near universal support of UKIP voters for Leave which was pivotal to the Brexit result
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    Benn is dreadful. A boring technocrat. He was wretchedly poor during the referendum.

    Chuka Umunna was very good in the EUref, by contrast. And he's got that charisma. And his ethnicity makes him interesting (it shouldn't but it does).

    If Labour are just gonna force a leader on their members (like the Tories) they should go for Chuka, if he can be persuaded to overcome his *fears*
    That doesn't seem very likely, just a year after he last chickened out.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,551
    eek said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Possibly one of the biggest myths it's that it's only New Labourites who oppose Corbyn. I know Labour voters from all walks of life who want Corbyn gone and fear for Labour's future if he stays. None of them liked New Labour or Tony Blair.

    And which Labour politician do they say would be better?
    Any of them at thus stage. You can't go into a GE, let alone form a govt with your entire parliamentary party having no confidence in you. It would be a bloodbath.
    The public couldn't care less about what the parliamentary party thinks -- after all, two thirds of Labour seats just roundly ignored Labour MPs' recommendation on the EU.

    Corbyn's very big problems are his complete lack of charisma, implausibility as a PM, and various principles which the public don't agree with -- but the charisma vacuum of Angela Eagle following the doomed Remain campaign strategy would be even worse on all counts, with a huge party split from infuriated grassroots members thrown in additionally.
    Corbyn doesn't entirely lack charisma. He's way more charismatic than Cooper, Burnham, Miliband - that's why the members love him. The problem is that the charisma only works on a few hundred thousand people, not the millions Labour need.
    Indeed Corbyn is weirdly charismatic albeit in a Marmite kind of way.
    Yup. For instance I thought his speech at the Durham Miners Gala (jeez, we really are in the 70s) was frankly rather good. Authentic, passionate, fiery, with a hint of wit. Why can't the Blairite drones do this stuff?

    Of course everything Corbyn said was nonsense on analysis, but I I can see why earnest but disillusioned youngsters (and oldsters) find it relatively compelling.
    Are there really any miners left in Durham, or were they instead lookalikes bused in?
    Nope. It's now just a heritage show offshoot of Beamish..
    I went to the miners' gala a few years ago. I was particularly taken by one of the Yorkshire collieries banners, which had a socialist-realist depiction of a miner, a massive snake, and the slogan 'only the strong will survive'. Rather presumptuous of me to suggest, perhaps, but I couldn't help thinking this a very idiosyncratic version of socialism.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Tim_B said:

    SeanT said:

    This summer of politics is like the 2005 Ashes. You knew after that series that cricket could never be that exciting again. Simply impossible. Drama sustained to the final hours...

    I was in England then - we were going to church one sunday evening, and stopped in the car park to listen to the cricket. Other church goers gathered around, and eventually the rector came out to join us. After the game we all wandered inside and did our god bothering bit.

    Best Ashes series I remember.
    Am rather surprised by the idea of you going to church! Was it to sight-see, or family obligation?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Is it time for the UN to step in and for Ban Ki Moon to mediate a peace deal between Corbyn and the PLP and oversee the transition?

    Are you laying odds? :lol:
    No what we need in an INQUIRY. God it seems like ages since someone called for one of those...
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited July 2016

    Mr. T, Umunna is a slicker Ed Miliband. He's metropolitan through and through, and I'm not sure that's what Labour needs now, with UKIP surely knocking on Labour's northern doors.

    I cannot fathom how anyone can think Chuka has a drop of charisma, he is the very definition of an out-of-touch bland metropolitan nobody.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Florida - JMC Analytics

    Clinton 42 .. Trump 47

    Note - large underpoll of Hispanics with a 13 point Trump lead in that demographic !!

    http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Florida-Executive-Summary.pdf
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    eek said:

    I would be hugely surprised if the NEC does decide that Corbyn has to get the nominations in order to take part in the leadership. It would be an extremely unLabour thing to do. I expect him to win the NEC vote relatively easily.

    After this length of time it would be hilariously ironic.. It's gone on so long though that I do think its a perfectly orchestrated Watson stitch up..

    I just cannot see it, unfortunately. Labour will always find a way to make itself look even more ridiculous.

    The labour movement as a whole seems to have an arms length relationship with rules. At a TUC conference in the 70s (it was a good decade) Jack Jones' TGWU was suspended for some reason. At a subsequent conference vote to reinstate it, the motion was carried by a narrow margin. It subsequently emerged that the TGWU vote was what swung it.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    Fewer Labour voters voted Leave than Tory voters voted Remain, it was the near universal support of UKIP voters for Leave which was pivotal to the Brexit result
    17,410,000 UKIP voters? I voted Labour at the GE!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. Rabbit, it was a happier, more stable time.

    Like when Bryan Adams was number one for four months, we could rely on Ed Miliband to promise us free owls, to call for full, independent, judge-led public inquiries, and to remind us that these strikes are wrong when negotiations are still ongoing*.

    *And the Government has acted in a reckless and provocative manner.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News — voters in Stoke-on-Trent p***ed off with not having a Brexit PM.

    Which is why May would be crazy to risk a GE.

    Forget Labour - the risk would be a massive UKIP surge - taking mainly Lab but also some Con seats - and potentially enough to deny a Con majority.
    That's probably where this will all end up in 2020 anyway...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    SeanT said:

    Mark3 said:

    "Cameron is reported to have told other EU states in his first post-referendum meeting with them that change is needed to Freedom of Movement."

    Does anyone believe that rubbish? That is such a typical example of British news reporting about a British prime minister going to a foreign place called the EU and telling those foreigners what's what.

    Think about it for a moment. A British prime minister - and an outgoing one at that - telling the EU, which Britain is supposed to be leaving, that it's going to have to get rid of one of the main planks of its single market. And what did they all say? "Yes, David, we hadn't thought of that, but you're absolutely right. You old Etonians had so much experience in India and Africa and it really shows. We're so indebted to you." Then it is reported that they burst into an enthusiastic rendition of "For he's a jolly good fellow".

    Except that lots of Europeans now want Free Movement to be qualified, in some form.

    It's not like they've never done it before. They restricted free movement on Poland etc, on accession.

    Which just goes to show how shit Cameron's negotiation was, and how dumb the EU is, as an institution. Brexit was so easily avoided if he'd been better and they'd been smarter.
    In Pakistan at the moment delivering a couple of workshops. One of my colleagues is Belgian. He is of the view that Brexit was good, as we were always the ones preventing the rEU progressing faster on social and political integration. He is in the good riddance camp, although hoping the best for the UK outside the EU.

    It is that mentality that confirms to me that Brexit was the right thing to do and that, despite some local short-term difficulties, the UK will do fine in the long-run and it is the EU that has a potentially tumultuous future.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Mr. T, Umunna is a slicker Ed Miliband. He's metropolitan through and through, and I'm not sure that's what Labour needs now, with UKIP surely knocking on Labour's northern doors.

    I cannot fathom how anyone can think Chuka has a drop of charisma, he is the very defination of an out-of-touch bland metropolitan nobody.
    That is an insult to Mr Pooter. :neutral:
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    Fewer Labour voters voted Leave than Tory voters voted Remain, it was the near universal support of UKIP voters for Leave which was pivotal to the Brexit result
    Gisela Stuart is probably the only one with senority and ability to get a post Brexit show back on the road. The chance of her being nominated must be zero though.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    Fewer Labour voters voted Leave than Tory voters voted Remain, it was the near universal support of UKIP voters for Leave which was pivotal to the Brexit result
    17,410,000 UKIP voters? I voted Labour at the GE!
    You and I both, @Sunil_Prasannan . Both Labour and Leave.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    This summer of politics is like the 2005 Ashes. You knew after that series that cricket could never be that exciting again. Simply impossible. Drama sustained to the final hours...

    We are living through history here. Enjoy.

    If you are reading this in 3016 as part of your degree in the origins of interplanetary political relations...

    Hello !!!

    *waves*
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    SeanT said:

    This summer of politics is like the 2005 Ashes. You knew after that series that cricket could never be that exciting again. Simply impossible. Drama sustained to the final hours...

    I was in England then - we were going to church one sunday evening, and stopped in the car park to listen to the cricket. Other church goers gathered around, and eventually the rector came out to join us. After the game we all wandered inside and did our god bothering bit.

    Best Ashes series I remember.
    Am rather surprised by the idea of you going to church! Was it to sight-see, or family obligation?
    Now, now, smarty pants. I am baptised and confirmed in the Church of England, as is my daughter. Why are you surprised?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    SeanT said:

    Mark3 said:

    "Cameron is reported to have told other EU states in his first post-referendum meeting with them that change is needed to Freedom of Movement."

    Does anyone believe that rubbish? That is such a typical example of British news reporting about a British prime minister going to a foreign place called the EU and telling those foreigners what's what.

    Think about it for a moment. A British prime minister - and an outgoing one at that - telling the EU, which Britain is supposed to be leaving, that it's going to have to get rid of one of the main planks of its single market. And what did they all say? "Yes, David, we hadn't thought of that, but you're absolutely right. You old Etonians had so much experience in India and Africa and it really shows. We're so indebted to you." Then it is reported that they burst into an enthusiastic rendition of "For he's a jolly good fellow".

    Except that lots of Europeans now want Free Movement to be qualified, in some form.

    It's not like they've never done it before. They restricted free movement on Poland etc, on accession.

    Which just goes to show how shit Cameron's negotiation was, and how dumb the EU is, as an institution. Brexit was so easily avoided if he'd been better and they'd been smarter.
    670k net migration from the EU into Germany in 2015. If the UK is now being seen as hostile can you imagine how it will be for them in the future.

    Free movement is going to be reformed, we just need to keep our head down. Theresa seems to be good at that.
  • Options
    If Corbyn's off the ballot paper, maybe that's the time to back Labour to win Most Seats at the next GE .... on offer at 4.0 (3/1) with Laddies and Bet365. Does anyone really think that with a half credible leader, the probability of Labour landing this bet is as low as 25%?
    DYOR.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    Benn is dreadful. A boring technocrat. He was wretchedly poor during the referendum.

    Chuka Umunna was very good in the EUref, by contrast. And he's got that charisma. And his ethnicity makes him interesting (it shouldn't but it does).

    If Labour are just gonna force a leader on their members (like the Tories) they should go for Chuka, if he can be persuaded to overcome his *fears*
    That doesn't seem very likely, just a year after he last chickened out.
    Agreed, but "not very likely" has not been a good guide to actual events, this summer.
    LOL dear god and how.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Is it time for the UN to step in and for Ban Ki Moon to mediate a peace deal between Corbyn and the PLP and oversee the transition?

    Are you laying odds? :lol:
    No what we need in an INQUIRY. God it seems like ages since someone called for one of those...
    A fully independent judge led one?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    Fewer Labour voters voted Leave than Tory voters voted Remain, it was the near universal support of UKIP voters for Leave which was pivotal to the Brexit result
    Gisela Stuart is probably the only one with senority and ability to get a post Brexit show back on the road. The chance of her being nominated must be zero though.
    If Theresa is smart, she'll set up a "cross party" Brexit committee/dept which will include Gisela, Frank Field, etc. As part of our negotiating team.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,915

    If Corbyn's off the ballot paper, maybe that's the time to back Labour to win Most Seats at the next GE .... on offer at 4.0 (3/1) with Laddies and Bet365. Does anyone really think that with a half credible leader, the probability of Labour landing this bet is as low as 25%?
    DYOR.

    Which half credible leader were you thinking of
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Sky News must be relieved there has not been an Oscar Pistorius case in the last few days.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    If Corbyn's off the ballot paper, maybe that's the time to back Labour to win Most Seats at the next GE .... on offer at 4.0 (3/1) with Laddies and Bet365. Does anyone really think that with a half credible leader, the probability of Labour landing this bet is as low as 25%?
    DYOR.

    I think "with a half credible leader" is key here...
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Danny565 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer available at 36 on BF exchange and Stephen Kinnock at 50 on the sportsbook.

    Would Labour risk a proper leadership contest? Surely better just to get Eagle in position before conference.
    Is Eagle really the best option they've got?
    A weepy, whiny woman? I do not think so.
    Indeed, if I were Labour I'd be twisting Hilary Benn's arm so far up his back right now.
    I actually wrote on PB a few months ago that I would probably vote for Benn in a leadership contest, but not after the EU Referendum. I come back to the big point: if "moderates" like Benn had a better sense of public opinion than Corbyn does, then he would have foreseen how badly the Remain campaign would go down with the country.
    52% and many pollsters called it wrong, but sure, Hilary Benn should have called it ....!
This discussion has been closed.