Labour aren't in a position where they can afford to have another election where they go backwards. They already need a 10% swing to get a majority. Going into an election with Corbyn could write off the next election before the government's next term has even started.
Perfectly appropriate to have a leadership election- but if Corbyn wins it isn't appropriate to split the party. In electoral terms that will be much worse than just having a united (ish) party behind Corbyn. It will make it much harder to rebuild after.
Yes. If Corbyn wins the PLP will need to row in behind him. Humiliating, yes - but they would have played for high stakes and lost. Splitting is like falling into a black hole.
In which case the Tory posters at the next general election write themselves '172 Labour MPs didn't vote for Corbyn, so why should you?'
Mr. P, could be wrong, but does Murray live in the US or get paid in dollars for Wimbledon?
Miss Plato, don't recall that specific instance, but pleading https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg is as persuasive as Izzard's luvvie tosh on Question Time, wibbling about 'the humanity'.
Labour aren't in a position where they can afford to have another election where they go backwards. They already need a 10% swing to get a majority. Going into an election with Corbyn could write off the next election before the government's next term has even started.
Perfectly appropriate to have a leadership election- but if Corbyn wins it isn't appropriate to split the party. In electoral terms that will be much worse than just having a united (ish) party behind Corbyn. It will make it much harder to rebuild after.
Yes. If Corbyn wins the PLP will need to row in behind him. Humiliating, yes - but they would have played for high stakes and lost. Splitting is like falling into a black hole.
In which case the Tory posters at the next general election write themselves '172 Labour MPs didn't vote for Corbyn, why should you?'
I know - they ar e doomed anyway. The only way is for for Corbyn to be on the ballot and to lose in a fair fight.
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Assuming Corbyn gets on the ballot which looks like going to the courts for determination,I make the tissue 4/7 Corbyn.The legal advice inspires confidence he will get on the ballot,not to forget the 100,000s of extremely angry Labour activists shouting betrayal. I believe the Thatcher Moment is the most important Tory party icon which is why Ms May will win.Equally,in Labour,Iraq is the key moment.Candidates like Angela Eagle who supported the Iraq war are not going to win.
'Look, I am resigned to the coronation of Mrs Theresa May as our next Prime Minister. In a cynical way, I am quite pleased by it, as she is so Left-wing that she may well achieve my main aim in life – the final and utter destruction of the Useless, Fraudulent Tory Party.
But spare me the suggestion that she is the new Margaret Thatcher. I’m not actually a Thatcherite, and disapprove of a lot of what the Iron Lady did.
But I did meet Mrs Thatcher, and talk to her, and watch her in action. And Mrs May is no Margaret Thatcher. She is in fact the new John Major.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
I simply think the EEA and City Remainers are ignoring 2.8m other plus a load of cultural others.
I think May will win but Leadsom could get 40-45% of Tory members, especially if she has a good performance in the debates. Many of those 2.8m others and more will also move to UKIP if May wins
@EdConwaySky: Generous words from Murray to PM there, despite fact that his Wimbledon prize money has fallen $400k in dollar terms since the referendum
Poor bourgeois Brits their holidays in Tuscany will cost more.....meanwhile tweets like that from the London based media just shows why they didn't see Brexit coming.
'Come on, how hard was it to see that the danger was invented, that the war was illegal and that it was none of our business? I have no prophetic powers but I could see it.
And yet, diddled so blatantly that even an official report now confirms it, you still don’t learn. How many supposedly responsible voters are currently being fooled by today’s attempt to spin us into a stupid conflict with Russia, a country almost nobody in Whitehall knows anything about or understands?
At least as many as were misled by claims of a fictional massacre into supporting the Libya disaster. At least as many as were persuaded by a media chorus to admire Hilary Benn’s feeble, poorly argued speech urging us to bomb Syria.
Is there no idiocy you can’t be gulled into by a bit of atrocity propaganda or the endlessly recycled claim that the chosen target is the new Hitler, who must not be ‘appeased’?'
I always feel vaguely cheated when we don't get a five-setter. Well done Murray.
When I was in the Centre Court crowd on Monday, we had: Federer v. Johnson - straight sets Serena v. Kuznetsova - straight sets Murray v. Kyrgios - straight sets
@EdConwaySky: Generous words from Murray to PM there, despite fact that his Wimbledon prize money has fallen $400k in dollar terms since the referendum
Poor bourgeois Brits their holidays in Tuscany will cost more.....meanwhile tweets like that from the London based media just shows why they didn't see Brexit coming.
Do you know what "nunu" means in most North Indian languages ?
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
@EdConwaySky: Generous words from Murray to PM there, despite fact that his Wimbledon prize money has fallen $400k in dollar terms since the referendum
Poor bourgeois Brits their holidays in Tuscany will cost more.....meanwhile tweets like that from the London based media just shows why they didn't see Brexit coming.
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
I always feel vaguely cheated when we don't get a five-setter. Well done Murray.
When I was in the Centre Court crowd on Monday, we had: Federer v. Johnson - straight sets Serena v. Kuznetsova - straight sets Murray v. Kyrgios - straight sets
You still saw some top players, I saw the end of Murray v Tsonga which went to 5
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
@EdConwaySky: Generous words from Murray to PM there, despite fact that his Wimbledon prize money has fallen $400k in dollar terms since the referendum
Poor bourgeois Brits their holidays in Tuscany will cost more.....meanwhile tweets like that from the London based media just shows why they didn't see Brexit coming.
Do you know what "nunu" means in most North Indian languages ?
F1: still not heard the stewards' verdict on Rosberg and the radio communication. May be taking a long time because it'll set a precedent, but it's been over three hours since the race ended.
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Could being the key word. Anyone serious about believing the voice of ordinary voters should be heard must surely believe that a party with 25% of the vote should be strongly represented in Parliament. That Leave vote told us people think they are being ignored.
I agree - I don't like PR because it gives too much power to the parties, and breaks the constituency link.
Without being an expert, I've always thought that multi-member STV might be a good compromise.
Perhaps we need a thread on AV and the alternatives to discuss?
What do you think about turning the counties into multi-member consituencies, with those members elected proportionately? As above, the size of the components means that even getting a majority isn't completely out of the question.
I'm a fan of natural/recognised boundaries, so it would make sense, although each unit should be a broadly similar size (i.e. each MP should have a similar number of constituents).
It's key, though, that parties can't game the system through a list approach: voters should be able to select their representatives.
That's the charm of it - you assign the number of MPs to each county (or natural/recognised boundary, like "Birmingham") such that the number of MPs reflects the electorate in the county.
And I'd agree with giving the electorate power of choice like that - how about insisting on open list, where the voters effectively determine the party order on the list (so the party can't get away with putting someone unpopular at the top of the list if the electorate view them last)?
STV's explicit purpose is to elect a representative slate of people for a multi-member constituency where the choice of representatives sits with the electors, rather than any political party putting people on a list. Indeed it is superior to our current system since it offers non-floating supporters of a political party a choice between individuals within that party, allowing them to choose the type of Conservative or Labour politician they prefer, for example, rather than being stuck with whoever five people in a room have chosen as their candidate.
As I said... I'm not an expert.
But I still come up with the structure that delivers my objectives
I know you're a bit full of yourself - but when you've the status of Zerohedge - maybe I'll pay your posts the same attention.
The original source is from the German press. Zerohedge are a bit flakey . Unfortunately, while I can order beer in every major European language, that is as far as my linguistic skills go.
I don't claim Zerohedge are oracles, they're collectively more informed than a single PB person who's recently become a market analyst.
You, mean apart from the founder of Zero Hedge being banned from working in the securities industry, and the whole site having been sued for taking money from hedge funds to spread false stories about companies?
And they didn't get done for market abuse for that?
I know you're a bit full of yourself - but when you've the status of Zerohedge - maybe I'll pay your posts the same attention.
The original source is from the German press. Zerohedge are a bit flakey . Unfortunately, while I can order beer in every major European language, that is as far as my linguistic skills go.
I don't claim Zerohedge are oracles, they're collectively more informed than a single PB person who's recently become a market analyst.
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
That is why I do not believe the gumpf for one second the Blairite MPs view and most of the Tories that they voted on the information presented to them.
What information did those Labour MPs and 16 Tories, 53 Liberals and 11 others have ?
Robin Cook, of course, had access to intelligence reports when he was Foreign Secretary.
"Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term - namely a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target. "
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
We don't know until the split happens and who gets to keep the Labour name. But just as many Labour members think Corbyn is the second coming, so many others believe he is utterly destructive.
If the MPs leave to set up a new party on what grounds could they claim Labour's name should follow them?
What if they do not set up a party but simply make themselves the official opposition in the HoC. Corbyn and co. will then be just non-party backbenchers.
Doesn't work. Corbyn is the leader of the PLP. While they remain members of the PLP, the Speaker recognises the "leader of the opposition party with the most seats in the House of Commons" as the LOTO
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
Anecdata when used intelligently is a better guide lately than polling.
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
Anecdata when used intelligently is a better guide lately than polling.
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
How many of them have a vote? Same goes for the Mail comments section. While they may represent the same type of conservative, I'd argue the priorities of a member and non-member would be different.
We don't know until the split happens and who gets to keep the Labour name. But just as many Labour members think Corbyn is the second coming, so many others believe he is utterly destructive.
If the MPs leave to set up a new party on what grounds could they claim Labour's name should follow them?
What if they do not set up a party but simply make themselves the official opposition in the HoC. Corbyn and co. will then be just non-party backbenchers.
Doesn't work. Corbyn is the leader of the PLP. While they remain members of the PLP, the Speaker recognises the "leader of the opposition party with the most seats in the House of Commons" as the LOTO
Simply meaningless. The PLP can call a meeting and name a new leader of the PLP. It is not the Speaker's business what Labour's constitution says.
Let's say UKIP had 15 MPs but not Farage as an MP. Would Farage then have been Leader of the PUKIPP ?
Whoever, the majority of the PLP tells the Speaker is their Leader, the Speaker has to accept that.
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
Anecdata when used intelligently is a better guide lately than polling.
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
How many of them have a vote? Same goes for the Mail comments section. While they may represent the same type of conservative, I'd argue the priorities of a member and non-member would be different.
The members with actual votes can still be swept up by a groundswell shift in opinion. May could be the Jeb Bush of this contest.
Mr. 64, I don't have a strong view either way, as I think knowing the precise situation is essential to knowing whether a penalty is warranted.
It does reduce his lead over Hamilton to 1 point.
As i understand it the new rules are that the pit team are not allowed to give advice about technical problems over the radio unless it is a safety issue. Rosberg was actually asking his crew what he should do when he got stuck in 7th gear. They told him to shift thru it. He claimed afterwards that he was about to stop on the track if he couldnt correct it so it was a safety issue. I disagree, he could have coasted off the track at the next suitable point.
Please don't tell me u believe they are moving their factory from Poole as a sort of punishment because 58% voted Leave.
They are not shutting their factory in Poole anyway. They are saying not a single job will be lost there. All they are doing is saying that production for the planned European expansion will be in Europe rather than the UK. They will still maintain UK production in Poole.
In the long run, and given how many companies over the last few years have centralised production outside the UK and shut UK factories to do so, Brexit might well have saved those jobs in Poole.
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
Anecdata when used intelligently is a better guide lately than polling.
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
How many of them have a vote? Same goes for the Mail comments section. While they may represent the same type of conservative, I'd argue the priorities of a member and non-member would be different.
The members with actual votes can still be swept up by a groundswell shift in opinion. May could be the Jeb Bush of this contest.
Well, we'll see. If she is asking audiences to applaud, then maybe you have a point.
We don't know until the split happens and who gets to keep the Labour name. But just as many Labour members think Corbyn is the second coming, so many others believe he is utterly destructive.
If the MPs leave to set up a new party on what grounds could they claim Labour's name should follow them?
What if they do not set up a party but simply make themselves the official opposition in the HoC. Corbyn and co. will then be just non-party backbenchers.
Doesn't work. Corbyn is the leader of the PLP. While they remain members of the PLP, the Speaker recognises the "leader of the opposition party with the most seats in the House of Commons" as the LOTO
Simply meaningless. The PLP can call a meeting and name a new leader of the PLP. It is not the Speaker's business what Labour's constitution says.
Let's say UKIP had 15 MPs but not Farage as an MP. Would Farage then have been Leader of the PUKIPP ?
Whoever, the majority of the PLP tells the Speaker is their Leader, the Speaker has to accept that.
No, it can't
The Labour Party constitution is absolutely clear: the leader of the Party is, ex officio, the leader of the PLP.
They need to change the constitution to achieve what you want them to do.
(Your UKIP analogy doesn't work because the Leader of the Party *has* to be a member of the PLP)
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
It remains to be seen whether Andy Murray gets a knighthood but David Beckham has been working his sycophantic socks off for years, including backing Remain, to try and earn a few brownie points.
Miss JGP, I didn't stay up too late, but having points of comparison like that made PB miles better than the TV coverage.
I've only been through two GEs and the referendum with PB, but they've all been fantastic fun to be part of. I think it must be almost exactly a decade ago that I started lurking - I was introduced to the site by my beloved Jenny.
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
Anecdata when used intelligently is a better guide lately than polling.
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
How many of them have a vote? Same goes for the Mail comments section. While they may represent the same type of conservative, I'd argue the priorities of a member and non-member would be different.
The members with actual votes can still be swept up by a groundswell shift in opinion. May could be the Jeb Bush of this contest.
Well, we'll see. If she is asking audiences to applaud, then maybe you have a point.
I agree anecdata from meaningful canvassing is the best evidence of how things are going. I don't see us getting this from the leadership contest so you have to guess a little.I don't think the comments page of the Mail is a bad starting point actually.
Mr. M, I only lurked briefly before joining in 2007 (I started checking political sites/blogs when I was worried Brown would win a snap election and impose the dystopian idiocy of ID cards upon us).
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
That is why I do not believe the gumpf for one second the Blairite MPs view and most of the Tories that they voted on the information presented to them.
What information did those Labour MPs and 16 Tories, 53 Liberals and 11 others have ?
Robin Cook, of course, had access to intelligence reports when he was Foreign Secretary.
"Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term - namely a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target. "
Also on the BBC Politics show today was a section, presented by a young woman from the remain campaign, analysing where it all went wrong for them.
Apparently, believing that parroting "It's the economy stupid" would resonate was one of their major misjudgements
I think that is right, because for most swing voters there has been no recovery, and many Leave voters have nothing to lose.
And it's something that politicians could and should have done something about - and could have done so if they'd just grasped the nettle on housing:
That shouldn't be a line graph. Makes it very difficult to read
A histogram would be better.
It does show that before housing costs nearly everyone has increased household income, and even afterwards, the top 50% do. Only the bottom 10% do substantially worse, the rest are much of a muchness. Perhaps we are all in it togethet :-)
Suppose there is a big promotion due. One candidate has his heart in the main issue that will be faced. The other candidate is a more experienced and wily operator. It is not sometimes right to pick 'heart' over 'experience'---it is almost always right.
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
If you follow the Mail comments section which in my view are a pretty good guide to conservative (with a small c) opinion,Leadsom has this.
Using comments section as a guide of public opinion? Interesting
Anecdata when used intelligently is a better guide lately than polling.
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
How many of them have a vote? Same goes for the Mail comments section. While they may represent the same type of conservative, I'd argue the priorities of a member and non-member would be different.
The members with actual votes can still be swept up by a groundswell shift in opinion. May could be the Jeb Bush of this contest.
Well, we'll see. If she is asking audiences to applaud, then maybe you have a point.
I agree anecdata from meaningful canvassing is the best evidence of how things are going. I don't see us getting this from the leadership contest so you have to guess a little.I don't think the comments page of the Mail is a bad starting point actually.
If the comments page of the Mail matched the nation, Farage would have won the last general election by a landslide!
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
Agreed, and I have a sneaking suspicion it is more popular to boo Tories.
You can understand why.
No, I can't.
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Mr. M, I only lurked briefly before joining in 2007 (I started checking political sites/blogs when I was worried Brown would win a snap election and impose the dystopian idiocy of ID cards upon us).
You mean you weren't doing some late night searches for some illicit AV material?
Evening all, been away for a couple of days, nothing much happened I take it?
SPOTY betting - today's the day to lay Andy Murray, remembering it's an Olympics year. Was going to say the same about Lewis Hamilton but he's as long as 50/1 which looks like value.
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
It remains to be seen whether Andy Murray gets a knighthood but David Beckham has been working his sycophantic socks off for years, including backing Remain, to try and earn a few brownie points.
He got a freebie on centre court for the final so I doubt he will complain too much. You can normally tell a US president's approval rating by whether they are cheered or booed when they throw the first pitch at the Superbowl, compare George W Bush at the first game of the World Series in 2001 to 2008 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjGcCI9ByWw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfWCaAr8Dhc
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
Agreed, and I have a sneaking suspicion it is more popular to boo Tories.
You can understand why.
No, I can't.
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Contemptible.
I was replying to the comment it is more popular to boo Tories.
The reason is that only one third of voters (and one quarter of the electorate) voted Tory. They are a minority but in power. That is why people boo them, even at Wimbledon. They aren't liked.
'Look, I am resigned to the coronation of Mrs Theresa May as our next Prime Minister. In a cynical way, I am quite pleased by it, as she is so Left-wing that she may well achieve my main aim in life – the final and utter destruction of the Useless, Fraudulent Tory Party.
But spare me the suggestion that she is the new Margaret Thatcher. I’m not actually a Thatcherite, and disapprove of a lot of what the Iron Lady did.
But I did meet Mrs Thatcher, and talk to her, and watch her in action. And Mrs May is no Margaret Thatcher. She is in fact the new John Major.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Good lord, Theresa May is left wing? Hitchens needs to take a couple of deep breaths.
John Major gets a bad rap - he was running the tail end of an 18 year government with a large part of the party that no longer cared about staying in power. He lost to one of the best 'candidates' for PM we've had in a long time (I say candidate as on paper he was perfect regardless of the actual results!)
Hamilton’s 4th British GP win and Murray at Wimbledon today will make SPOTY betting fun.
SPOTY could be a nightmare to predict this year. But I would say that in an Olympic year, Hamilton will find it hard even if he does pip Rosberg to the F1 title.
If Murray gets two golds in Rio (very possible) then he will be favourite. Froome even with two golds is probably still going to lack popularity with the public. Wiggins getting another gold might just give him a shot at a second SPOTY as could Cavendish or even Laura Trott but Cavendish, Wiggins, Trott and Froome (depending on the Olympic results) will split the cyling vote as at least a couple of them will do well enough in Rio. Ennis or Farrah could well end up near the top if they perform in Rio, Alistair Brownlee might get close too if he wins another gold.
There's a lot of potential contenders this year, I think it could end up as a mugs market.
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
Agreed, and I have a sneaking suspicion it is more popular to boo Tories.
You can understand why.
No, I can't.
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Contemptible.
I was replying to the comment it is more popular to boo Tories.
The reason is that only one third of voters (and one quarter of the electorate) voted Tory. They are a minority but in power. That is why people boo them, even at Wimbledon. They aren't liked.
Edit: People don't doff their caps these days.
I doubt the crowd would be exactly cheering Corbyn either if he turned up
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
Agreed, and I have a sneaking suspicion it is more popular to boo Tories.
You can understand why.
No, I can't.
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Contemptible.
I was replying to the comment it is more popular to boo Tories.
The reason is that only one third of voters (and one quarter of the electorate) voted Tory. They are a minority but in power. That is why people boo them, even at Wimbledon. They aren't liked.
Edit: People don't doff their caps these days.
I doubt the crowd would be exactly cheering Corbyn either if he turned up
No, but I think it less likely that they would actually boo him.
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
Agreed, and I have a sneaking suspicion it is more popular to boo Tories.
You can understand why.
No, I can't.
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Contemptible.
I wouldn't do it myself, but a case can be made that it is a legitimate expression of opinion. The problem here is, what opinion? Is it for being a tory/ being a remainer/ having a referendum/ losing it/ resigning/ not having resigned yet/ just being David Cameron?
'Look, I am resigned to the coronation of Mrs Theresa May as our next Prime Minister. In a cynical way, I am quite pleased by it, as she is so Left-wing that she may well achieve my main aim in life – the final and utter destruction of the Useless, Fraudulent Tory Party.
But spare me the suggestion that she is the new Margaret Thatcher. I’m not actually a Thatcherite, and disapprove of a lot of what the Iron Lady did.
But I did meet Mrs Thatcher, and talk to her, and watch her in action. And Mrs May is no Margaret Thatcher. She is in fact the new John Major.' http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Good lord, Theresa May is left wing? Hitchens needs to take a couple of deep breaths.
John Major gets a bad rap - he was running the tail end of an 18 year government with a large part of the party that no longer cared about staying in power. He lost to one of the best 'candidates' for PM we've had in a long time (I say candidate as on paper he was perfect regardless of the actual results!)
Yes but Heffer and Hitchens see anyone vaguely sane as untrustworthy and weak
Hamilton’s 4th British GP win and Murray at Wimbledon today will make SPOTY betting fun.
SPOTY could be a nightmare to predict this year. But I would say that in an Olympic year, Hamilton will find it hard even if he does pip Rosberg to the F1 title.
If Murray gets two golds in Rio (very possible) then he will be favourite. Froome even with two golds is probably still going to lack popularity with the public. Wiggins getting another gold might just give him a shot at a second SPOTY as could Cavendish or even Laura Trott but Cavendish, Wiggins, Trott and Froome (depending on the Olympic results) will split the cyling vote as at least a couple of them will do well enough in Rio. Ennis or Farrah could well end up near the top if they perform in Rio, Alistair Brownlee might get close too if he wins another gold.
There's a lot of potential contenders this year, I think it could end up as a mugs market.
It was bloody rude of some of the crowd at Wimbledon to boo the PM. Why can't people just show some manners and separate sport from politics?
Agreed, and I have a sneaking suspicion it is more popular to boo Tories.
You can understand why.
No, I can't.
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Contemptible.
I was replying to the comment it is more popular to boo Tories.
The reason is that only one third of voters (and one quarter of the electorate) voted Tory. They are a minority but in power. That is why people boo them, even at Wimbledon. They aren't liked.
Edit: People don't doff their caps these days.
I doubt the crowd would be exactly cheering Corbyn either if he turned up
Comments
Avowed Kippers? Corbynistas? Solipsistic Tory-voting middle class tossers?
Well done Andy for acknowledging there is more to life than tennis.
Miss Plato, don't recall that specific instance, but pleading https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg is as persuasive as Izzard's luvvie tosh on Question Time, wibbling about 'the humanity'.
Want to have an =ism fight with me? Carry on.
"Ordinary" people haven't done very well.
'Oh, for goodness’ sake leave the pathetic Blair creature alone. He will never understand what he did and probably didn’t understand it at the time.
He isn’t very bright and now lives a lonely, meaningless life of empty speeches delivered to bored businessmen in return for money, which will have to be penance enough.
If you want to blame anyone for the Iraq disaster, look at yourselves. I opposed it at the time, and remember how few others did. I don’t really count the Leftist demonstrators, who oppose all wars, just or unjust.
I mean the great mass of patriotic Middle Britain, normal decent people, who were so willingly misled. I mean those scores of MPs of both parties who scuttled, bleating, through the war lobby and now claim, falsely, that they didn’t know the facts.'
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
I believe the Thatcher Moment is the most important Tory party icon which is why Ms May will win.Equally,in Labour,Iraq is the key moment.Candidates like Angela Eagle who supported the Iraq war are not going to win.
'Look, I am resigned to the coronation of Mrs Theresa May as our next Prime Minister. In a cynical way, I am quite pleased by it, as she is so Left-wing that she may well achieve my main aim in life – the final and utter destruction of the Useless, Fraudulent Tory Party.
But spare me the suggestion that she is the new Margaret Thatcher. I’m not actually a Thatcherite, and disapprove of a lot of what the Iron Lady did.
But I did meet Mrs Thatcher, and talk to her, and watch her in action. And Mrs May is no Margaret Thatcher. She is in fact the new John Major.'
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
'Come on, how hard was it to see that the danger was invented, that the war was illegal and that it was none of our business? I have no prophetic powers but I could see it.
And yet, diddled so blatantly that even an official report now confirms it, you still don’t learn. How many supposedly responsible voters are currently being fooled by today’s attempt to spin us into a stupid conflict with Russia, a country almost nobody in Whitehall knows anything about or understands?
At least as many as were misled by claims of a fictional massacre into supporting the Libya disaster. At least as many as were persuaded by a media chorus to admire Hilary Benn’s feeble, poorly argued speech urging us to bomb Syria.
Is there no idiocy you can’t be gulled into by a bit of atrocity propaganda or the endlessly recycled claim that the chosen target is the new Hitler, who must not be ‘appeased’?'
Well yes.
Federer v. Johnson - straight sets
Serena v. Kuznetsova - straight sets
Murray v. Kyrgios - straight sets
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/mar/19/uk.houseofcommons3
Why is that? Simply, 'heart' is always under-valued, and 'experience' is over-rated.
FWIW, I still think May will shade it. But then I'd thought we'd lose the referendum....
https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2015/11/28/the-corbyn-coup/
To be fair to Murray, he does not choose to live in Monaco.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3682683/BBC-commentator-John-Inverdale-trouble-Jungle-Book-jibe-Wimbledon-star-Nick-Kyrgios.html
Yes.
But I still come up with the structure that delivers my objectives
This is real median income in the US over the last 20-odd years. Basically, the average person in the US is about 10% worse off than 17 years ago!
What information did those Labour MPs and 16 Tories, 53 Liberals and 11 others have ?
Robin Cook, of course, had access to intelligence reports when he was Foreign Secretary.
"Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term - namely a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target. "
Prophetic words. A truly great speech.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2859431.stm
"Rejoice! The new Ghostbusters is good. Very good, in fact. It had to be."
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jul/10/ghostbusters-review-paul-feigs-female-reboot-melissa-mccarthy-kristen-wiig#comments
Mumsnet has been fairly positive about Leadsom too.
It does reduce his lead over Hamilton to 1 point.
Let's say UKIP had 15 MPs but not Farage as an MP. Would Farage then have been Leader of the PUKIPP ?
Whoever, the majority of the PLP tells the Speaker is their Leader, the Speaker has to accept that.
But i am british and biased.
In the long run, and given how many companies over the last few years have centralised production outside the UK and shut UK factories to do so, Brexit might well have saved those jobs in Poole.
If Murray is to be Knighted surely it would have to be in either Queen's Birthday or New Year's Honours List.
The Labour Party constitution is absolutely clear: the leader of the Party is, ex officio, the leader of the PLP.
They need to change the constitution to achieve what you want them to do.
(Your UKIP analogy doesn't work because the Leader of the Party *has* to be a member of the PLP)
It remains to be seen whether Andy Murray gets a knighthood but David Beckham has been working his sycophantic socks off for years, including backing Remain, to try and earn a few brownie points.
Being TOTY for life hasn't impressed Mrs JackW one bit !! ....
It does show that before housing costs nearly everyone has increased household income, and even afterwards, the top 50% do. Only the bottom 10% do substantially worse, the rest are much of a muchness. Perhaps we are all in it togethet :-)
It's rude to boo anyone.
I guess the only reason why you might think it's more understandable is because you approve of the mob mentality and the picking on a single individual.
Contemptible.
Oh...
SPOTY betting - today's the day to lay Andy Murray, remembering it's an Olympics year. Was going to say the same about Lewis Hamilton but he's as long as 50/1 which looks like value.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjGcCI9ByWw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfWCaAr8Dhc
The reason is that only one third of voters (and one quarter of the electorate) voted Tory. They are a minority but in power. That is why people boo them, even at Wimbledon. They aren't liked.
Edit: People don't doff their caps these days.
John Major gets a bad rap - he was running the tail end of an 18 year government with a large part of the party that no longer cared about staying in power. He lost to one of the best 'candidates' for PM we've had in a long time (I say candidate as on paper he was perfect regardless of the actual results!)
Mr. D, a man doesn't need illicit materials when he understands the true meaning of differential front end grip.
If Murray gets two golds in Rio (very possible) then he will be favourite. Froome even with two golds is probably still going to lack popularity with the public. Wiggins getting another gold might just give him a shot at a second SPOTY as could Cavendish or even Laura Trott but Cavendish, Wiggins, Trott and Froome (depending on the Olympic results) will split the cyling vote as at least a couple of them will do well enough in Rio. Ennis or Farrah could well end up near the top if they perform in Rio, Alistair Brownlee might get close too if he wins another gold.
There's a lot of potential contenders this year, I think it could end up as a mugs market.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Why did the Democrats pick Hilary over Bernie, all the polls show he easily beats Trump.
America wants change!
(Maybe).