politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be a case of Corbynus interruptus in the Labour leadership contest
One of my underlying assumptions about any attempt to defenestrate Corbyn was that Corbyn would automatically be on the ballot in the subesquent contest, but judging by events this morning, that assumption might well be wrong.
Angela Eagle was actually closer to Corbyn that even Watson or Jarvis in that members' poll, she may be the best candidate to face him as she has low expectations which means the better she does the worse for Corbyn as if he cannot convincingly beat her who can he beat? If Corbyn is kept off the ballot paper given she had the courage to challenge him in the first place and seems the most acceptable alternative to the present members (she also beat McDonnell in the same members' poll) I see no reason why she should not be made leader
Only in the Labour Party would the question of whether should someone who does not have the support of 51 MPs be allowed to stand for Leader be considered worth an answer.
I hope he is on the ballot and that he loses. It would save the Labour Party and would be what he deserves.
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
Yesterday you were talking about the legal precedent set by Kinnock....
Yep - having thought about it further (and looking at the make up of the NEC) I think that won't work. However, if I am wrong and the NEC does go against JC that precedent will be very powerful in court.
Would the courts even hear this case? And who the hell leads the party while the case is heard? Watson, he's one of the key plotters.
The courts would need good reason to hear the case. Corbyn would have to show the NEC had not followed the rules or that it had been discriminatory. Those are high hurdles.
I know it's all going to hell in a handcart, but it's a great time to be alive. We have a real chance both main parties could be screwed- and by their own hand. Bloody marvellous. Mind you, I hope someone remembers that they are supposed to have a stab at running the country at some point.
Looks like the Tories have got to give the leadership to Andrea because Theresa cant be trusted.
Pity.
Only if you ignore this
Mr Grieve told the BBC that 'as a parliamentarian and a democrat, I have to accept the verdict of the referendum' and that a Tory Government was under an obligation to 'try to give effect' to it
I know it's all going to hell in a handcart, but it's a great time to be alive. We have a real chance both main parties could be screwed- and by their own hand. Bloody marvellous. Mind you, I hope someone remembers that they are supposed to have a stab at running the country at some point.
Belgium managed for over a year with a Government.
Would the courts even hear this case? And who the hell leads the party while the case is heard? Watson, he's one of the key plotters.
The courts would need good reason to hear the case. Corbyn would have to show the NEC had not followed the rules or that it had been discriminatory. Those are high hurdles.
The test for regulatory intervention by the courts is not high but you are right that the decision of the NEC would be given considerable weight, especially when the rules seem designed to give them a discretion to go beyond the rules if necessary.
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
Looks like the Tories have got to give the leadership to Andrea because Theresa cant be trusted.
Pity.
Only if you ignore this
Mr Grieve told the BBC that 'as a parliamentarian and a democrat, I have to accept the verdict of the referendum' and that a Tory Government was under an obligation to 'try to give effect' to it
And the fact that it's from someone who is not Theresa May.
Looks like the Tories have got to give the leadership to Andrea because Theresa cant be trusted.
Pity.
Only if you ignore this
Mr Grieve told the BBC that 'as a parliamentarian and a democrat, I have to accept the verdict of the referendum' and that a Tory Government was under an obligation to 'try to give effect' to it
And the fact that it's from someone who is not Theresa May.
B. Nomination i. In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each nomination must be supported by 15 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void. ii. Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void.
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
It would be quite ridiculous if he wasn't on the ballot and would make the whole ballot an undignified waste of time. I'd certainly boycott it and so would most members - as Tony Blair, hardly a keen Corbynite, observed, it would be a breach of natural justice. We'd simply make sure to elect more sensible NEC members in the imminent NEC election, and ask them to get the necessary changes at Conference to rerun the election with a choice of those who actually want to stand.
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
I find it amazing that a movement (the wider labour movement) which so beloves committees, rulebooks, etc, has managed to not spell out categorically in its rules for the Party Leadership whether or not the incumbent has to have nominations from MPs or not.
A ridiculous party that should be put out of its misery.
B. Nomination i. In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each nomination must be supported by 15 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void. ii. Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void.
Not clear if leader needs nominations from that. Thus, JC gets the benefit of the doubt.
Would the courts even hear this case? And who the hell leads the party while the case is heard? Watson, he's one of the key plotters.
The courts would need good reason to hear the case. Corbyn would have to show the NEC had not followed the rules or that it had been discriminatory. Those are high hurdles.
He would need to show that to win, not to have the case heard.
And he has an overwhelmingly strong case. The courts would be going out on a limb to side with plotters within one of the great political parties.
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
It would be quite ridiculous if he wasn't on the ballot and would make the whole ballot an undignified waste of time. I'd certainly boycott it and so would most members - as Tony Blair, hardly a keen Corbynite, observed, it would be a breach of natural justice. We'd simply make sure to elect more sensible NEC members in the imminent NEC election, and ask them to get the necessary changes at Conference to rerun the election with a choice of those who actually want to stand.
Why? Tory MPs elected Michael Howard without consulting members and IDS won 60% of the members' vote in 2001.
Would the courts even hear this case? And who the hell leads the party while the case is heard? Watson, he's one of the key plotters.
The courts would need good reason to hear the case. Corbyn would have to show the NEC had not followed the rules or that it had been discriminatory. Those are high hurdles.
Is there also a clause that authorizes the NEC to interpret the rules where ambiguity exists? If so, that makes Corbyn's challenge a great deal harder. If not, then I think he'd have a reasonable case.
On the discriminatory point, surely a contest only exists once a challenge is in? But there must also be a deadline on when challenges must be in by in order to be voted on at conference? If so, then a challenger has as long as he or she wants to put his or her nominations together whereas a leader would only have the time from the submission of the challenge until the deadline, which might be a matter of minutes if the challenger so chose. Such a situation would clearly be discriminatory unless the leader didn't need the nominations in the first place.
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
Only in the Labour Party would the question of whether should someone who does not have the support of 51 MPs be allowed to stand for Leader be considered worth an answer.
I hope he is on the ballot and that he loses. It would save the Labour Party and would be what he deserves.
Make it 85 and you could include the Tories and Leadsom.
The Labour rule book looks cut and shut to me. There is no vacancy - the CHALLENGERS need the noms.
Good afternoon all.
That was my reading. However, the idea that the incumbent does not require nominations is implied, rather than being made explicit. Bring on the lawyers.
B. Nomination i. In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each nomination must be supported by 15 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void. ii. Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void.
Thanks for posting this- I've been looking for this online. My reading of that would be then that the 'nominations' refer to potential challengers and not to the current leader.
Also is there confirmation that Corbyn resigning and then standing to fill the vacancy (to benefit from a lower 15% threshold) is not acceptable?
If the plotters are successful in keeping Corbyn off the ballot- it would suggest that his conciliatory strategy on de-selections was a big mistake.
B. Nomination i. In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each nomination must be supported by 15 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void. ii. Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void.
On face of it it seems Doughty Chambers (see Faisal Islam's twitter feed) are right and Corbyn is on. They say the alternative argument is "weak".
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
Yesterday you were talking about the legal precedent set by Kinnock....
It is certainly a precedent but not a legally established one .
Do we know whether Kinnock put together the nominations because he needed them as a matter of process or because politically it strengthened his case as he had the overwhelming backing of all three sections? There is a culture in Labour whereby any number of internal party groups or individuals 'nominate' one candidate or another in leadership elections even though these public statements have no official role in the process.
Looks like the Tories have got to give the leadership to Andrea because Theresa cant be trusted.
Pity.
Only if you ignore this
Mr Grieve told the BBC that 'as a parliamentarian and a democrat, I have to accept the verdict of the referendum' and that a Tory Government was under an obligation to 'try to give effect' to it
And the fact that it's from someone who is not Theresa May.
Grieve was good on Any Questions and got quite a lot of applause, although Tim Farron got more. Gisela Stuart was on the back foot mostly.
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
It would be quite ridiculous if he wasn't on the ballot and would make the whole ballot an undignified waste of time. I'd certainly boycott it and so would most members - as Tony Blair, hardly a keen Corbynite, observed, it would be a breach of natural justice. We'd simply make sure to elect more sensible NEC members in the imminent NEC election, and ask them to get the necessary changes at Conference to rerun the election with a choice of those who actually want to stand.
Not sure about that. Members in Islington North and other Corbyn hotspots might boycott, but there'd still be plenty of voters.
B. Nomination i. In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each nomination must be supported by 15 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void. ii. Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void.
Unambiguous to me. Only the challengers need MP nominations. The leader gets on the ballot automatically, assuming that they want to stand of course.
The Labour rule book looks cut and shut to me. There is no vacancy - the CHALLENGERS need the noms.
I've just been told that the logic is that the vote of no confidence in Corbyn creates a vacancy.
Interesting logic.
Only if the vote of no confidence has standing, which it doesn't.
The Labour constitution says that the Leader of the Party is, ex officio, the Leader of the PLP.
The PLP can't create a vacancy in the position of the leader of the PLP - it's not an elected post. And they can't, on their own, create a vacancy in the position of the leader of the Party
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, that requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
Looks like Labour party will split de jure into two factions, which will quickly become separate parties. Which one keeps the Labour name is anyones guess.
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, taht requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
But "in this case" directly follows the sentence:
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference."
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, that requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
No, it doesn't. It says potential challengers need to seek nominations...and that nominations must be 20%.
But don't bother replying. You spend hours spinning yourself about abstract points of law and invariably get them wrong, so I'm not going to waste my time
The Labour rule book looks cut and shut to me. There is no vacancy - the CHALLENGERS need the noms.
Good afternoon all.
That was my reading. However, the idea that the incumbent does not require nominations is implied, rather than being made explicit. Bring on the lawyers.
Yep - that is the problem. There's nothing explicit. It's up to the NEC to interpret. If they went against JC he'd have to show the process used to come to that decision was wrong. But I think it's very unlikely the NEC will go against him precisely because the wording is not clear.
The Labour rule book looks cut and shut to me. There is no vacancy - the CHALLENGERS need the noms.
I've just been told that the logic is that the vote of no confidence in Corbyn creates a vacancy.
Interesting logic.
Only if the vote of no confidence has standing, which it doesn't.
The Labour constitution says that the Leader of the Party is, ex officio, the Leader of the PLP.
The PLP can't create a vacancy in the position of the leader of the PLP - it's not an elected post. And they can't, on their own, create a vacancy in the position of the leader of the Party
It would also mean that as I write this now there is no leader of the PLP!
When you say the "Commonwealth" , do you mean the "white" Commonwealth [ otherwise, known as the "Old" Commonwealth ] or the entire Commonwealth.
The Commonwealth is composed of mainly Republics. Take out your rose tinted spectacles.
They still all have represenative democracy, the common law and the rule of law. They nearly all speak English either as a first languagem an official language or a defacto official language. Basically politically they all play Rugby Union wheras the EU dosent even keep to the rules of Rugby league.
It is not a centralised organisation like the EU and no one will be forced into anything.
The fact is that I could, without any prior knowledge of the place, land in India or even Zimbabwe, comminicate with anyone educated, have the ability to competently find myself housing and work (in terms of being capable of doing the application, understsnding how contractual issues work - not employment laws for immigrants). I would be in an environment where the basic framework of life is the same - yes even in Zimbabwe. And in time off I could join a cricket club :-)
That is not the case anywhere in the EU except RoI, Malta and Cyprus.
I am looking forward to India play Pakistan at rugby followed by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The winners could take on Malaysia.........
What crap are you talking ? Just say you meant only the "white bit" of the Commonwealth and we will all understand what you really wanted to say.
No I dont mean just the white commonwealth although in practice free movement would be thus limited to avoid the same problem we have with Eastern Europe at the moment, until such time as other members are as wealthy so unbalanced movement would not occur.
No reason why we cant have free trade and free movement for all who can demonstate a certain level of wealth so as to be able to support themselves with India S.A. etc
The commonwealth isnt a one size fits all organisation like the EU.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I think it depends on the settlement that May gets on free movement, if there are enough small changes to bring immigration down to below 200k I think UKIP will be looking at a somilar performance to what they have now. If she gets nothing and immigration stays at above 300k then I agree that they should be looking at a minimum of 20%.
Indeed but I think she is most likely to get minor concessions at best
The existing EFTA renewable emergency brake and restrictions on migrant benefits/NHS entitlement will do fine for now
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, that requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
Let's suppose that there are challengers, but none of them achieve 20%. The incumbent also fails to achieve 20%. That would mean that nobody could be the leader if it was necessary for the incumbent to get the 20%.
That would be nonsense since the incumbent would clearly remain in post. Corbyn doesn't need nominations. The only way to keep him off the ballot is with a deal.
I know it's all going to hell in a handcart, but it's a great time to be alive. We have a real chance both main parties could be screwed- and by their own hand. Bloody marvellous. Mind you, I hope someone remembers that they are supposed to have a stab at running the country at some point.
Belgium managed for over a year with a Government.
I recall reading that their economy actually prospered, comparatively, during that time
Robert assures me that Italy only suffers economically when it has a strong government.
However, the idea that we're without a government is overblown. The Civil Service will be servicing away; it's a flywheel that will do fine without ministers floundering about, at least for a little while.
From a tactical perspective... If it is the case that the plotters try and fail to exclude Corbyn from the ballot... that surely makes their life much harder when it comes to the leadership election?
Their case to the voters is then... we tried very hard to prevent you from having your say on Corbyn... but having failed- please listen to us?
Using Reductio ad absurdum, would it be OK for Corbyn to be on the ballot if every single PLP member was opposed to him? If not a single one supported him? This seems preposterous to me. Surely he needs a minimum level of PLP support to lead the party otherwise the PLP become irrelevant. Maybe that's what's happened and it already is.
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
It would be quite ridiculous if he wasn't on the ballot and would make the whole ballot an undignified waste of time. I'd certainly boycott it and so would most members - as Tony Blair, hardly a keen Corbynite, observed, it would be a breach of natural justice. We'd simply make sure to elect more sensible NEC members in the imminent NEC election, and ask them to get the necessary changes at Conference to rerun the election with a choice of those who actually want to stand.
Not sure about that. Members in Islington North and other Corbyn hotspots might boycott, but there'd still be plenty of voters.
Most members boycott the election. Hmm. So only non-Corbynites would be voting then? So Eagle (or someone else) will be leader until a conference can be organized to enable another election.
Using Reductio ad absurdum, would it be OK for Corbyn to be on the ballot if every single PLP member was opposed to him? If not a single one supported him? This seems preposterous to me. Surely he needs a minimum level of PLP support to lead the party otherwise the PLP become irrelevant. Maybe that's what's happened and it already is.
He needed a minimum level of PLP support to get on last year's ballot. Which he got. Now he is the incumbent different rules apply.
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, taht requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
But "in this case" directly follows the sentence:
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference."
Yes and if they then get those nominations it does not explicitly say the incumbent is not required to get those nominations too
@iainmartin1: A pro-Brexit Tory MP tells me that Leadsom's backers see the chance to "re-run the IDS leadership which was cruelly curtailed"... Well...
Using Reductio ad absurdum, would it be OK for Corbyn to be on the ballot if every single PLP member was opposed to him? If not a single one supported him? This seems preposterous to me. Surely he needs a minimum level of PLP support to lead the party otherwise the PLP become irrelevant. Maybe that's what's happened and it already is.
It seems to be crystal clear from the rules, the existing leader can be challenged by someone if the get 20% of PLP support. Other wise he is leader till he resigns. A blind man can see that, Corbyn will not resign and will whip the stalking donkey put up against him. Hopefully we will then see a long list of these no-users being hung by their own petards.
From a tactical perspective... If it is the case that the plotters try and fail to exclude Corbyn from the ballot... that surely makes their life much harder when it comes to the leadership election?
Their case to the voters is then... we tried very hard to prevent you from having your say on Corbyn... but having failed- please listen to us?
The voters have listened to Corbyn, they give him one of the worst opposition leader ratings in postwar history and in May gave him one of the worst local election performances of any opposition leader in history, Labour won just 31% and actually lost seats. Even Foot and Hague had some big local election wins
Using Reductio ad absurdum, would it be OK for Corbyn to be on the ballot if every single PLP member was opposed to him? If not a single one supported him? This seems preposterous to me. Surely he needs a minimum level of PLP support to lead the party otherwise the PLP become irrelevant. Maybe that's what's happened and it already is.
He needed a minimum level of PLP support to get on last year's ballot. Which he got. Now he is the incumbent different rules apply.
Those different rules being that he needs no support at all. Crazy.
I know it's all going to hell in a handcart, but it's a great time to be alive. We have a real chance both main parties could be screwed- and by their own hand. Bloody marvellous. Mind you, I hope someone remembers that they are supposed to have a stab at running the country at some point.
Belgium goes long periods without government and they seem to get on fine.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I think it depends on the settlement that May gets on free movement, if there are enough small changes to bring immigration down to below 200k I think UKIP will be looking at a somilar performance to what they have now. If she gets nothing and immigration stays at above 300k then I agree that they should be looking at a minimum of 20%.
Indeed but I think she is most likely to get minor concessions at best
The existing EFTA renewable emergency brake and restrictions on migrant benefits/NHS entitlement will do fine for now
Not for those who voted Leave to end immigration it won't and they will form the base for UKIP's messsage of opposition
The Labour rule book looks cut and shut to me. There is no vacancy - the CHALLENGERS need the noms.
I've just been told that the logic is that the vote of no confidence in Corbyn creates a vacancy.
Interesting logic.
The vote is advisory, the only way Corbyn gets excluded if this goes to the courts is if the judge is of a weak and feeble mind.
That's your book talking isn't it ?
If Eagle runs unopposed it will cost me a few quid but we're a long way from that yet.
I'm on holiday from July 27th until August 9th in countries where betting is illegal, I suspect this is going to be an expensive holiday in so many ways.
The NEC will keep Corbyn on the ballot. The rules are unclear and given that he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
It would be quite ridiculous if he wasn't on the ballot and would make the whole ballot an undignified waste of time. I'd certainly boycott it and so would most members - as Tony Blair, hardly a keen Corbynite, observed, it would be a breach of natural justice. We'd simply make sure to elect more sensible NEC members in the imminent NEC election, and ask them to get the necessary changes at Conference to rerun the election with a choice of those who actually want to stand.
Oooh.
*googles recipes for extra spicy popcorn*
Nick has gone from being an ultra loyal pro Iraq War Blairite to an ultra loyal pro Corbyn hardcore leftist all in the space of a decade!
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, taht requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
But "in this case" directly follows the sentence:
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference."
Yes and if they then get those nominations it does not explicitly say the incumbent is not required to get those nominations too
Give up you obviously cannot read very well or are just being obtuse. It explicitly states that to challenge teh incumbent you need 20% of the PLP's support, ie "NO vacancy.
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
That's pretty clear that it's only potential challengers that need to seek nominations
'In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. ' It does not say in this case any 'challengers' nomination must be supported by... So it depends which way you want to interpret it, taht requirement for nominations could equally be interpreted to apply to the incumbent too if a challenger meets the nomination threshold
But "in this case" directly follows the sentence:
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference."
Yes and if they then get those nominations it does not explicitly say the incumbent is not required to get those nominations too
Having spoken to my friend who is a judge, Corbyn would certainly win if it came to court . The crux is that the rules give two scenarios vacancy or no vacancy .In only the 2nd scenario are the words potential challengers used and by definition challenger(s) do not include the incumbent .
I know it's all going to hell in a handcart, but it's a great time to be alive. We have a real chance both main parties could be screwed- and by their own hand. Bloody marvellous. Mind you, I hope someone remembers that they are supposed to have a stab at running the country at some point.
Belgium goes long periods without government and they seem to get fine.
In the UK, the Civil Service gets its marching orders based on the outcome of the spending rounds - we essentially operate on a series of Five Year Plans, which is positively Soviet.
Government, like business, isn't really a complete adhocracy (though plans & priorities can and do change between spending rounds). If I were to be unkind, ministers are just there to occasionally keep the plates spinning.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I think it depends on the settlement that May gets on free movement, if there are enough small changes to bring immigration down to below 200k I think UKIP will be looking at a somilar performance to what they have now. If she gets nothing and immigration stays at above 300k then I agree that they should be looking at a minimum of 20%.
Indeed but I think she is most likely to get minor concessions at best
The existing EFTA renewable emergency brake and restrictions on migrant benefits/NHS entitlement will do fine for now
Not for those who voted Leave to end immigration it won't and they will form the base for UKIP's messsage of opposition
Let them oppose. Even if they are half of Brexiters they are only 25% of the electorate.
If, as I suspect, the EFTA rules are enough then the issue will fade away. If not then we can re-evaluate in a few years
I’m sure Corbyn knows the rule book backwards, I’m yet to be convinced that the NEC will interoperate them in a way that blocks a party leader’s right to be included automatically on the leadership ballot. – However, stranger things have happened in the past when Labour lays down with lawyers, demonstrating manifesto promises were mere guff was perhaps the highlight of Blair’s time in office.
I know it's all going to hell in a handcart, but it's a great time to be alive. We have a real chance both main parties could be screwed- and by their own hand. Bloody marvellous. Mind you, I hope someone remembers that they are supposed to have a stab at running the country at some point.
Belgium managed for over a year with a Government.
Comments
I hope he is on the ballot and that he loses. It would save the Labour Party and would be what he deserves.
If only Cameron read this book he would have seen this coming.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3682742/May-s-aide-hints-second-referendum-Former-Attorney-General-says-People-change-mind-not-writ-stone.html
Looks like the Tories have got to give the leadership to Andrea because Theresa cant be trusted.
Pity.
Mr Grieve told the BBC that 'as a parliamentarian and a democrat, I have to accept the verdict of the referendum' and that a Tory Government was under an obligation to 'try to give effect' to it
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the combined Commons members of the PLP and members of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void."
You can read all the rules here:
http://www.leftfutures.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Rule-Book-2016.pdf
Nomination
i.
In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy
leader, each nomination must be supported
by 15 per cent of the combined Commons
members of the PLP and members of the
EPLP. Nominations not attaining this
threshold shall be null and void.
ii.
Where there is no vacancy, nominations may
be sought by potential challengers each year
prior to the annual session of Party
conference. In this case any nomination must
be supported by 20 per cent of the combined
Commons members of the PLP and members
of the EPLP. Nominations not attaining this
threshold shall be null and void.
A ridiculous party that should be put out of its misery.
And he has an overwhelmingly strong case. The courts would be going out on a limb to side with plotters within one of the great political parties.
On the discriminatory point, surely a contest only exists once a challenge is in? But there must also be a deadline on when challenges must be in by in order to be voted on at conference? If so, then a challenger has as long as he or she wants to put his or her nominations together whereas a leader would only have the time from the submission of the challenge until the deadline, which might be a matter of minutes if the challenger so chose. Such a situation would clearly be discriminatory unless the leader didn't need the nominations in the first place.
Interesting logic.
A new NEC is being elected right now by members.
Those who say the leader cannot be on the ballot will lose their seats IMO
That was my reading. However, the idea that the incumbent does not require nominations is implied, rather than being made explicit. Bring on the lawyers.
My reading of that would be then that the 'nominations' refer to potential challengers and not to the current leader.
Also is there confirmation that Corbyn resigning and then standing to fill the vacancy (to benefit from a lower 15% threshold) is not acceptable?
If the plotters are successful in keeping Corbyn off the ballot- it would suggest that his conciliatory strategy on de-selections was a big mistake.
The Labour constitution says that the Leader of the Party is, ex officio, the Leader of the PLP.
The PLP can't create a vacancy in the position of the leader of the PLP - it's not an elected post. And they can't, on their own, create a vacancy in the position of the leader of the Party
"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of Party conference."
But don't bother replying. You spend hours spinning yourself about abstract points of law and invariably get them wrong, so I'm not going to waste my time
What crap are you talking ? Just say you meant only the "white bit" of the Commonwealth and we will all understand what you really wanted to say.
India rugby team:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_national_rugby_union_team.
No I dont mean just the white commonwealth although in practice free movement would be thus limited to avoid the same problem we have with Eastern Europe at the moment, until such time as other members are as wealthy so unbalanced movement would not occur.
No reason why we cant have free trade and free movement for all who can demonstate a certain level of wealth so as to be able to support themselves with India S.A. etc
The commonwealth isnt a one size fits all organisation like the EU.
"There shall be a leader and deputy leader of the Party who shall, ex-officio, be leader and deputy leader of the PLP." (p. 4)
Being leader gives the person the leadership of PLP by virtue of being leader (ex-officio).
I can't see anything about confidence.
That would be nonsense since the incumbent would clearly remain in post. Corbyn doesn't need nominations. The only way to keep him off the ballot is with a deal.
However, the idea that we're without a government is overblown. The Civil Service will be servicing away; it's a flywheel that will do fine without ministers floundering about, at least for a little while.
Their case to the voters is then... we tried very hard to prevent you from having your say on Corbyn... but having failed- please listen to us?
https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen
@iainmartin1: A pro-Brexit Tory MP tells me that Leadsom's backers see the chance to "re-run the IDS leadership which was cruelly curtailed"... Well...
Government, like business, isn't really a complete adhocracy (though plans & priorities can and do change between spending rounds). If I were to be unkind, ministers are just there to occasionally keep the plates spinning.
If, as I suspect, the EFTA rules are enough then the issue will fade away. If not then we can re-evaluate in a few years
I’m sure Corbyn knows the rule book backwards, I’m yet to be convinced that the NEC will interoperate them in a way that blocks a party leader’s right to be included automatically on the leadership ballot. – However, stranger things have happened in the past when Labour lays down with lawyers, demonstrating manifesto promises were mere guff was perhaps the highlight of Blair’s time in office.
It's a new one on me. A Lisbon expert about?