politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And to bring us all down to earth tonight’s Local By-electi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And to bring us all down to earth tonight’s Local By-elections
Mostyn (Lab defence) on Conwy
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 11)
Result of ward at last election (2012):
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*edit* thanks for adding in the referendum data Harry, that's very interesting.
Because I know which line i'd want to be taking if I wanted negotiations with the EU to be conducted in a spirit of mutual beneficial co-operation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt//
We don't want to be part of the club. Fair enough. It's a very different thing to say you want the club disbanded if the other members are happy enough within it.
Great call.
I don't subscribe to the theory but it's a logical argument.
Are there civil service rules for this?
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/2016/07/07/86802266/
Ivanka!!!???!!
If I have it right, you can get 66/1 on PaddyPower
I think it's either Fallin, or Shelley Moore Capito.
Basically, if we behave like Dan Hannan, I think we do very well. If we behave like Nigel Farage, then we do not.
"Mrs May’s most senior supporters are worried that this has now become her greatest single liability"
"BNP policy"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/07/theresa-may-must-not-be-pm-until-she-rejects-the-policy-of-the-b/
Safe pair of hands?
No hiding place for the next 60days..
It's also pollutes any exit negotiations with ill-will.
If the GOP gets united, Trump's chances and numbers will go way way up.
As I remember it was May and not Leadsom that made the UK's EU citizens a bargaining chip.
We have a long and proud democratic tradition (this isn't a paean to British exceptionalism, don't worry). That isn't the case in a surprisingly large number of European countries. The EU has mostly helped the PIGS, though in Italy and Greece's case it hasn't been able to stop them self-harming. It's certainly benefited the A8/A2.
In my lifetime Portugal, Spain and Greece have all been under dictatorships or juntas. People tend to forget that.
More interesting is Trump's use of Twitter. He has used it very successfully. As a medium for name-calling insults against rivals - in which he specialises - it has been highly effective. If a tweet misses its target, or embarrasses him in some way, never mind - he just cracks on. The medium doesn't encourage long attention spans. And he's only 5% behind in the polls. Shouldn't he be further behind, given that there's not exactly mass dissatisfaction with Barack Obama?
I got wittily xkcd'ed the last time I mentioned it, but no Democratic US president has taken over from another Democrat in an election since before the civil war.
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
I understand the concerns expressed on the previous thread that a monstering by the metropolitan elite may drive Tory voters into the arms of Ms Leadsom. Tactically that may be right. And the protective instinct is a wonderful thing but really this is a bit pathetic. If she can't survive such a monstering by some newspapers or her opponent, how the hell do you think she will survive the monstering she is going to get from 27 other EU states mightily pissed off at having another problem to deal with?
They will run rings round her. Those other states will do what is necessary to protect their interests and the interests of the EU. They owe us no favours. The job of the PM is to try and get us into a position where their interests and ours coincide or are close enough that we can do a deal that, give or take, suits us both. That is going to take skill and courage and determination and focus and a lot of hard pounding. Not answering questions is not an option. If you think sneering by the BBC is bad, imagine the sort of sneering there will be from other EU states when the UK presents as its PM the office intern.
Deciding not to be in the EU is a grown up decision, whether one agrees with it or not. What we need now is to have a grown up to deal with it.
Leave made the status of citizens an issue, that May now has to clean up.
lol, Fraser Nelson deluded as always.
That looks like very low vote numbres in the Conwy election last time. But still better than Eden and the unopposed.
Have a by-election coming up in my neck of the woods next week - I forewarn there will be several paragraphs of local detail no one will possibly care about coming.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/apr/16/lawrence-odonnell/president-vice-president-same-state-allowed/
If only there was a word for that...
On the GOP VP stakes, Rod's pick, Martha McSally is 100 to back with Betfair for small stakes and appears to have stalled.
Electoral College electors can't vote for both a president and VP from their own state - but NY is unlikely to return Republican electors so this doesn't matter.
I see Twitter more like a modern telegraph service.
Obviously Trump's approach is the correct one, if you are out for votes and attention through controversy.
A European strategy is needed more than ever now. Brexit is merely the very first stage in such a process.
This is realpolitik not SJW gesture politics.
Nah not really. We'll soon be signing trade deals with giant blocs exasperated by Europe's socialism and protectionism.
An anything but bl88dy Europe is the strategy we need.
And we won;t be on the hook for the astronomical bills the whole rotten project racks up as it attempts to save its zombie banks and companies.
By Iain Martin
http://reaction.life/david-cameron-avoided/
The UK can blackmail Poland and Romania with their nationals living in the UK, Spain and Italy with the status of the UK expats living in their countries.
The UK has the upper hand on this, since expats are mostly retirees spending their pensions in crisis stricken countries who desperately need cash, those countries can't really afford giving the boot to them.
If they try to shaft us, we have to be prepared to leave unconditionally and revert to WTO rules, then resume negotiations from that position. Given the trade imbalance, they will want to come to the table soon enough.
They care about jobs and an economy more than a little bit of land that we've owned for centuries.
*this is blatantly a set up by May supporters no one who is serious says things like " war on pc".
That was an amazing scoop. Twitter and smart phones, what a combination!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796
We have been told repeatedly that our immigrants are an economic necessity, both in the private sector and public services such as the NHS. We will not get the best from those people, nor will we win any friends by talking in these terms.
May's holding statement is adequate, but I do think it a tactical mistake to adopt this line in the first place.
One of the first rules of negotiation is not to underestimate your opposite numbers. Everyone knows that the UK has more EU citizens resident here than there are British citizens in the EU. It's a tacit threat in and of itself. Talking about it in public is a colossal faux pas.
If people are honest with themselves (an increasingly forlorn hope), had (say) Leave.EU talked about potential deportations during the referendum campaign, people would have been all over it as racism of the worst kind.
I appreciate that we will not agree on this topic, so I'll leave it there.