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  • @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    Remainers still in denial mode I see. The latest today was news China was interested in a trade deal, having got fed up with the EU. The EU's Canada deal is now stalling, so no doubt they'll be next.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Would Corbyn even go after a GE loss? It means that any dissolution of parliament sought by a new PM should be easy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jobabob said:



    Yes this insane idea that the party has to rally around a ready made perfect candidate in order for the utterly useless Corbyn to stand down is an outright far left lie. If Obama was waiting in the wings, Corbyn would still stay, using exactly the same lines...

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/jeremy-corbyn-s-allies-believe-they-ll-win-again-because-their-opponents-haven-t

    Except, I didn't even vote for Corbyn in the first place - far from needing an Obama figure, I even settled for Andy Burnham over Corbyn last summer.

    But once again, it should be commonsense that, no matter how unsatisfactory the current arrangement is, you don't ditch it until you've got a better arrangement lined up. And I come back to the point that it's not at all obvious to me that the PLP moderates would be a better arrangement, when they just showed how spectacularly bad their political judgement was with the EU Referendum.

    Are you saying that there are 172 moderates in the PLP? And what do you think of the judgement of the 90% of Labour members who supported remain, as well as all the trade unions that did? You are sounding a bit formulaic. Your main contention seems to be that Corbyn is currently the best leader Labour could have, that no-one could do a better job. I don't buy that, but if I am wrong what does it tell us about Labour's long-term future?

    It is not even just the fact that the Labour MPs supported Remain -- it is that they supported the Remain campaign's arguments, and the likes of Alan Johnson, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle faithfully repeated those arguments on TV time and time again.

    They should have known that, with the utter rage there is among a lot of lower-income voters right now, a campaign based on wonkish facts and statistics, was never going to win out over an emotional appeal for change by any means necessary. But if the Labour MPs didn't spot that was the mood with their own voters, even though that should've been blatantly obvious to anyone who was even vaguely in touch with public opinion, makes me think they would produce similarly tone-deaf campaigns if they got control back of the party.

    They can only get control back if members let them. I am afraid I just don't buy the idea that nobody currently in the PLP could lead the Labour party better than Jeremy Corbyn. Clearly you do believe that. We are not going to agree.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    For another dave:



    i think we're beyond normal politics now. This is a new game. The people have just voted to impoverish the country, in the hope of something better, later

    Meanwhile, Labour is led by an elderly man in a vest who mainly worries about Palestine and well-sourced coffee, and who actively supports the IRA, and who cheers anyone who kills British soldiers.

    The idea that voters will worry about the funding mechanism for the NHS, when faced with this choice, is poignant.

    Labour is saying to the British people: we give up. We are no longer serious. We do not wish to Oppose. We want to protest.

    UKIP need to elect some more councillors, and see who floats to the top. They don't have an obvious alternative to Farage. Nuttall is probably the best at the moment, but he's a step down.

    Suzanne Evans is their best TV performer by some distance, but she's never won an election as a UKIP candidate.

    Labour Leave had a very good speaker. Young fat chap. Videos were posted on here.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If the coup is over, when will the deselections begin?

    Presumably having pulled back from officially launching a coup - they got as far as putting Corbyn on notice that a coup might occur - the reward for subservience will there not to be mass deselections.

    If I were Corbyn I'd be feeling pretty smug right now.
    ce of work if he has any feelings of smugness at the moment.
    He doesn't think he's leading them intowould be proud of.

    Now, I think he's not up for the job and Labour will do very badly under him, and the country suffers as a result. But from a personal perspective defeating opponents must feel good.
    He hasn't defeated his opponents. He has scurried into a tiny loophole in the rules and exploited it, despite his staying being unconstitutional
    Moour even have such a person? Perhaps, but you can count them on the fingers of half-a-hand...
    If Tom Watson had had the balls, I think he'd have beaten Corbyn in a head-to-head.
    Speakingbyn.
    Plato's cats are more electable than Corbyn.
    The campaign.

    So 90% of Labour members and the majority of trade union members were wrong about Remain. And theyorking class Leave voters.
    An O

    Agreed.

    Farage the Stockbroker has gone.

    If they install a credible working class or lower middle class leader, with brains, they could do to Labour in England and Wales what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland.
    They need a woman. A complete break from the Farage look...

    Suzanne Evans is essentially a right wing Tory. Are there any other UKIP women with a shot at the leadership?

    Diane James?

    Yep, that's the one. A right wing, southern Tory. No chance in Labour heartlands.
    Northerners are not bigoted towards people from other backgrounds you know. A mild right of centre normal woman would be preferred to the Marxists running Labour. It just needs time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Pulpstar said:

    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

    How is it taking this long? I know Australia has a large land area, but this is ridiculous
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    The PLP actually need to show some bloody spine though. And not be afraid to potentially sacrifice their careers. If they're afraid, they'll go anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655

    Pulpstar said:

    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

    How is it taking this long? I know Australia has a large land area, but this is ridiculous
    Postal votes still to be counted - most Aus elections they make no odds, but this time they are absolubtely crucial. A majority or not most likely comes down to about a hundred votes in "Hindmarsh".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Pulpstar said:

    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

    Why is it taking so long??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    Some talk of the PLP heading to courst over their own rules, but I can't see any court wanting to go near them with a 500 foot barge pole.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

    How is it taking this long? I know Australia has a large land area, but this is ridiculous
    Postal votes still to be counted - most Aus elections they make no odds, but this time they are absolubtely crucial. A majority or not most likely comes down to about a hundred votes in "Hindmarsh".
    But they aren't any different from ballots cast on the day? I wonder why the first 50% was so much faster than the second 50%.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Some talk of the PLP heading to courst over their own rules, but I can't see any court wanting to go near them with a 500 foot barge pole.

    Mr Kinnock getting out his Labour Party rule book during a Marr interview was a hoot. Keep it up! :)

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

    Why is it taking so long??
    It isn't. It's just normal for Australia...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    HYUFD said:


    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns

    I'm really not sure getting into EFTA/EEA is going to be the cakewalk some think. I can still see us being in limbo, art 50 not yet triggered by the 2020 GE..
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I think May is going to lose with the members, whether she's up against Gove or Leadsom.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:


    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns

    I'm really not sure getting into EFTA/EEA is going to be the cakewalk some think. I can still see us being in limbo, art 50 not yet triggered by the 2020 GE..
    If that happens, record low turnout in 2020.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    Some talk of the PLP heading to court over their own rules, but I can't see any court wanting to go near them with a 500 foot barge pole.

    To do what exactly? The courts may well get involved at the suit of an aggrieved party.

    But someone has to do something first, to generate a grievance...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    The world's most painfully slow count continues.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

    Labor are ahead in the two-party preferred count by 21,021 votes:

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:


    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns

    I'm really not sure getting into EFTA/EEA is going to be the cakewalk some think. I can still see us being in limbo, art 50 not yet triggered by the 2020 GE..
    No, Article 50 will be triggered by the first few months of next year and we will go into EFTA/EEA as the City will demand, at the end of the day the most powerful voice in our economy will overrule the working class Leave voters for whom immigration was all. They comprise about 25-30% of the population, enough to give UKIP a sizeable base and to form over half the Leave vote but not enough to dictate the future direction of the economy and the nation, in the end the establishment will shaft them
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I think May is going to lose with the members, whether she's up against Gove or Leadsom.
    And that would be a good result for the Conservatives!

    Their problem seems to be the bulk of the MPs are snobs who aren't interested in representing their constituencies. They just want to represent rich Londoners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood of most of the public than Leadsom, a reluctant Remainer would be preferred as PM to a staunch Leaver
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Brom said:

    Woolfe better candidate, measured and thoughtful, Mosside background, mixed race. Nuttall wouldn't be too bad.

    Yes. Subject to 2months events, that's where my vote is going.

    All the earnest opinionating re Evans or Carswell from the media (& those who would never vote for waycist ukip) is meaningless for the leadership result. Both of them chose to go their own way rather than work with the team in the Ref and so lost any following they may have had.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jobabob said:

    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If the coup is over, when will the deselections begin?

    Presumably having pulled back from officially launching a coup - they got as far as putting Corbyn on notice that a coup might occur - the reward for subservience will there not to be mass deselections.

    If I were Corbyn I'd be feeling pretty smug right now.
    Why would Corbyn feel smug? He's a terrible leader driving the main left wing party in the country into the ditch. He's a nasty piece of work if he has any feelings of smugness at the moment.
    Hewould be proud of.

    Now, I think he's not up for the job and Labour will do very badly under him, and the country suffers as a result. But from a personal perspective defeating opponents must feel good.
    He hasn't defeated his opponents. He has scurried into a tiny loophole in the rules and exploited it, despite his staying being unconstitutional
    More nonsense. I correctly construed the Labour rules, ad nauseam, over a year ago, even before Corbyn was elected.

    Any hypothetical challenge was doomed, not least because Jezza would automatically be on the ballot...

    Labour's only chance would be to find a candidate meeting the following criteria.

    a) charismatic, at least as mch as JC [the initials say it all]
    b) non "careerist"
    c) non-Blairite
    d) not tainted by Iraq
    e) non-metropolitan

    None of the currently-mentioned names come remotely close to meeting all of the above. Does Labour even have such a person? Perhaps, but you can count them on the fingers of half-a-hand...
    snip

    If Corbyn stood down there could be a proper contest with candidates from all wings of the party. Corbyn is the roadblock. I just cannot understand why anyone who wants to see meaningful left wing policies enacted in this country would want him to continue in charge. Is he really the best the left can offer? I am afraid I don't buy that.

    Yes this insane idea that the party has to rally around a ready made perfect candidate in order for the utterly useless Corbyn to stand down is an outright far left lie. If Obama was waiting in the wings, Corbyn would still stay, using exactly the same lines...

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/jeremy-corbyn-s-allies-believe-they-ll-win-again-because-their-opponents-haven-t
    The article says: "In September 2006, it took just 17 Labour MPs to force Tony Blair to announce a date for his resignation."

    I thought Blair resigned in June 2005...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood of most of the public than Leadsom, a reluctant Remainer would be preferred as PM to a staunch Leaver
    That's crazy. 75% of Conservative constituencies voted Leave. But hey, let the members decide.

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    shiney2 said:

    Brom said:

    Woolfe better candidate, measured and thoughtful, Mosside background, mixed race. Nuttall wouldn't be too bad.

    Yes. Subject to 2months events, that's where my vote is going.

    All the earnest opinionating re Evans or Carswell from the media (& those who would never vote for waycist ukip) is meaningless for the leadership result. Both of them chose to go their own way rather than work with the team in the Ref and so lost any following they may have had.
    I don't see the attraction of Woolfe. When I've seen him he just seemed fake.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:



    The article says: "In September 2006, it took just 17 Labour MPs to force Tony Blair to announce a date for his resignation."

    I thought Blair resigned in June 2005...

    27 June 2007, so a lame duck for about 8 months!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood of most of the public than Leadsom, a reluctant Remainer would be preferred as PM to a staunch Leaver
    That's crazy. 75% of Conservative constituencies voted Leave. But hey, let the members decide.

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
    42% of Tory voters voted Remain, more than the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    This is the first time the Tory party electorate have been asked directly to elect a PM - which I think might well focus minds rather more than some might be expecting.

    We can't use the election of IDS as a guide for what will happen this time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I think May is going to lose with the members, whether she's up against Gove or Leadsom.
    And that would be a good result for the Conservatives!

    Their problem seems to be the bulk of the MPs are snobs who aren't interested in representing their constituencies. They just want to represent rich Londoners.
    Members' polls show May winning comfortably
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I think May is going to lose with the members, whether she's up against Gove or Leadsom.
    The only way that might conceivably happen is for the third placed candidate to endorse the second placed one (assuming May finishes top of the pile in the MPs election) and maybe form a joint ticket. Given the way Gove's lackeys including the snivelling Nick Boles have sought to undermine Leadsom I can't see that happening now.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I think May is going to lose with the members, whether she's up against Gove or Leadsom.
    And that would be a good result for the Conservatives!

    Their problem seems to be the bulk of the MPs are snobs who aren't interested in representing their constituencies. They just want to represent rich Londoners.
    Members' polls show May winning comfortably
    A poll. One. I don't think that's how its going to go.

    And judging from their behaviour, Conservative MPs don't think she will either.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:



    The article says: "In September 2006, it took just 17 Labour MPs to force Tony Blair to announce a date for his resignation."

    I thought Blair resigned in June 2005...

    27 June 2007, so a lame duck for about 8 months!
    I must have had too many beers tonight.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood of most of the public than Leadsom, a reluctant Remainer would be preferred as PM to a staunch Leaver
    That's crazy. 75% of Conservative constituencies voted Leave. But hey, let the members decide.

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
    43% of Tory voters voted Remain, more than the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave
    75% of Conservative constituencies, 7/10 Labour constituencies. Remain votes piled up in London and Scotland.

    Look at the medium article above.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the Tory leadership and becomes PM and takes us fully back into the EEA with free movement even if she also technically takes us out of the EU I would expect the Tories too to potentially lose seats to UKIP in Kent and Essex alongside those Labour may lose in some working class northern and midlands towns
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have the chance to connect with millions of voters that could carry them to huge majorities. Vote Leadsom!
    I think May is going to lose with the members, whether she's up against Gove or Leadsom.
    And that would be a good result for the Conservatives!

    Their problem seems to be the bulk of the MPs are snobs who aren't interested in representing their constituencies. They just want to represent rich Londoners.
    Members' polls show May winning comfortably
    A poll. One. I don't think that's how its going to go.

    And judging from their behaviour, Conservative MPs don't think she will either.
    Not just Yougov, ICM and Survation too. May will come top of the MPs ballot tomorrow again with a very large lead
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    shiney2 said:

    Brom said:

    Woolfe better candidate, measured and thoughtful, Mosside background, mixed race. Nuttall wouldn't be too bad.

    Yes. Subject to 2months events, that's where my vote is going.

    All the earnest opinionating re Evans or Carswell from the media (& those who would never vote for waycist ukip) is meaningless for the leadership result. Both of them chose to go their own way rather than work with the team in the Ref and so lost any following they may have had.
    I don't see the attraction of Woolfe. When I've seen him he just seemed fake.
    Woolfe handled the immigration brief well whenever I saw him on TV. He can appear on TV and fit in. This is, imho, his primary advantage over Nuttall.

    To seriously dent Lab UKIP needs to stay with current policies/attitudes (Farage got this dead right) but be more polished/less vulnerable on TV.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:


    Not just Yougov, ICM and Survation too. May will come top of the MPs ballot tomorrow again with a very large lead

    MPs result is meaningless.

    I was looking at the Survation poll earlier. Con councillors, I'm assuming they're a touch more Remain than members.

    The undecided voters were 2:1 Leave. I think Leadsom can win them over just by not falling on her face. She just needs one or two strong hustings/debate performances. May is a weak candidate.

    p.10
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Final-Con-Cllrs-Tables-1c0d6h2.pdf
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Brom said:

    Woolfe better candidate, measured and thoughtful, Mosside background, mixed race. Nuttall wouldn't be too bad.

    Yes. Subject to 2months events, that's where my vote is going.

    All the earnest opinionating re Evans or Carswell from the media (& those who would never vote for waycist ukip) is meaningless for the leadership result. Both of them chose to go their own way rather than work with the team in the Ref and so lost any following they may have had.
    I don't see the attraction of Woolfe. When I've seen him he just seemed fake.
    Woolfe handled the immigration brief well whenever I saw him on TV. He can appear on TV and fit in. This is, imho, his primary advantage over Nuttall.

    To seriously dent Lab UKIP needs to stay with current policies/attitudes (Farage got this dead right) but be more polished/less vulnerable on TV.
    I disagree. They need a touch more passion rather than polish. Jane Collins (Rotherham candidate) has something going.

    I really like Suzanne Evans, but she's not won an election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    edited July 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood of most of the public than Leadsom, a reluctant Remainer would be preferred as PM to a staunch Leaver
    That's cr
    43% of Tory voters voted Remain, more than the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave
    75% of Conservative constituencies, 7/10 Labour constituencies. Remain votes piled up in London and Scotland.

    Look at the medium article above.

    Well given the country as a whole voted Leave that is hardly surprising but the average margin in most constituencies in England and Wales was about 55% to 45% Leave or a little less much as it was when you exclude Scotland and NI from the UK figures. Nonetheless plenty of Tory areas voted Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Epsom to Guildford to Bromley to Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster to Putney and even John Redwood's Wokingham. Tory marginal seats in the likes of Reading and Brighton voted Remain too

    However the 96% of UKIP voters who voted Leave distort the figures, especially when you consider they got 13% of the vote at the last election. If you excluded UKIP voters, the UK probably would narrowly have voted Remain and far fewer constituencies would have backed Leave. It was UKIP which provided the base of the Leave victory
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood of most of the public than Leadsom, a reluctant Remainer would be preferred as PM to a staunch Leaver
    That's crazy. 75% of Conservative constituencies voted Leave. But hey, let the members decide.

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
    43% of Tory voters voted Remain, more than the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave
    75% of Conservative constituencies, 7/10 Labour constituencies. Remain votes piled up in London and Scotland.

    Look at the medium article above.

    Well given the country as a whole voted Leave that is hardly surprising but the average margin in most constituencies in England and Wales was about 55% to 45% Leave or a little less much as it was when you exclude Scotland and NI from the UK figures. Nonetheless plenty of Tory areas voted Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Epsom to Guildford to Bromley to Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster to Putney and even John Redwood's Wokingham. Tory marginal seats in the likes of Reading and Brighton voted Remain too
    Reading is low blow. I volunteered for Leave in Reading. :(
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Past my bedtime. Night all.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Brom said:

    Woolfe better candidate, measured and thoughtful, Mosside background, mixed race. Nuttall wouldn't be too bad.

    Yes. Subject to 2months events, that's where my vote is going.

    All the earnest opinionating re Evans or Carswell from the media (& those who would never vote for waycist ukip) is meaningless for the leadership result. Both of them chose to go their own way rather than work with the team in the Ref and so lost any following they may have had.
    I don't see the attraction of Woolfe. When I've seen him he just seemed fake.
    Woolfe handled the immigration brief well whenever I saw him on TV. He can appear on TV and fit in. This is, imho, his primary advantage over Nuttall.

    To seriously dent Lab UKIP needs to stay with current policies/attitudes (Farage got this dead right) but be more polished/less vulnerable on TV.
    I disagree. They need a touch more passion rather than polish. Jane Collins (Rotherham candidate) has something going.

    I really like Suzanne Evans, but she's not won an election.
    Yes, Jane C is a personality and I campaigned for her. Leader? Much less sure.

    When I first saw evans put up on TV, I was v impressed. After a while it dawned that she was too easily dominated in TV discussions with multiple participants. Not strong enough imo. Also she has no following in ukip any more..
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If the coup is over, when will the deselections begin?

    If I were Corbyn I'd be feeling pretty smug right now.
    Why would Corbyn feel smug? He's a terrible leader driving the main left wing party in the country into the ditch. He's a nasty piece of work if he has any feelings of smugness at the moment.
    Hewould be proud of.

    As I've said all along, "Corbyn is not doing well" is not the same as "there is someone else who would do better than Corbyn".

    The PLP can throw all the toddler tantrums they like, but the membership is only going to vote for a change when an alternative candidate is presented, with an alternative platform, with convincing reasons for why that candidate/platform would perform better in a general election than Corbyn. Pushing forward lightweights like Angela Eagle, with platforms which sound suspiciously like the inept "Remain" campaign, do not come close to meeting any of those tests.

    If Corbyn stood down there could be a proper contest with candidates from all wings of the party. Corbyn is the roadblock. I just cannot understand why anyone who wants to see meaningful left wing policies enacted in this country would want him to continue in charge. Is he really the best the left can offer? I am afraid I don't buy that.

    But that is where this all started! The best that Labour could offer all stood, as well as Corbyn, and Corbyn slaughtered the lot of them. Where are these persuasive charismatic candidates who didn't stand last time, and where is their distinctive platform?

    OK, I guess Labour could gamble and jump down to the next generation with someone like Creasey or Lewis. But they still need a platform, and (as in much of Europe) no-one has really got to grips with what is the role of the centre-left in the 21st century.
    the role of the centre left in the 21st century seems to be virtue signalling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    @SeanT

    Nah. UKIP are in disarray too, a mess of infighting and backstabbing along with incoherence over the future. The Leave win is a phyrric victory for them. Look at the fiasco with Hamilton and HQ over Wales, or the bizarre distance between Farage and Carswell or Evans.

    Most likely Leave will soon be an orphan, unwanted and unloved by anyone, as we shrink our place in the world along with our economy.

    Leave voters will mostly go back to their usual parties at election times, or back to non-participation.

    But you miss my point.

    I cannot see what it profits you, as a voter, to vote Labour in 2020

    With Corbyn as leader they are basically saying Vote for Us, We Never Win, but We Make You Feel Good

    UKIP (if they get their leadership and manifesto sorted) can say Vote For Us, We Got You Out of Europe, now WE can deliver on immigration, crime, police, security, those horrible burqas in Morrisons

    This will be appealing to a lot of people.

    The great, existential threat to Labour was always the rise of a populist rightwing party. Now it is happening.

    If, as I now fully expect, May wins the
    May would be such a lost opportunity.

    They have to choose a Leave candidate. They have
    I believe May is now more in tune with the mood or
    That's crazy. 75% of Conservative constituencies voted Leave. But hey, let the members decide.

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
    43% of Tory voters voted Remain, more than the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave
    75% of Cons

    Look at the medium article above.

    Well given the country as a whole voted Leave that is hardly surprising but the average margin in most constituencies in England and Wales was about 55% to 45% Leave or a little less much as it was when you exclude Scotland and NI from the UK figures. Nonetheless plenty of Tory areas voted Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Epsom to Guildford to Bromley to Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster to Putney and even John Redwood's Wokingham. Tory marginal seats in the likes of Reading and Brighton voted Remain too
    Reading is low blow. I volunteered for Leave in Reading. :(
    I am sure you if it was not for your efforts Remain may have won by even more in Reading, goodnight
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Today, PEC boosts Trump's prospects to his highest yet...

    Clinton 317 Trump 221

    Fewer than 50 EVs from victory, and already out-performing in many swing-states...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/anti-donald-trump-forces-see-convention-coup-as-within-reach-1467839099

    Anti-Donald Trump Forces See Convention Coup as Within Reach
    Backing of 28 Rules Committee members would allow a full vote on unbinding delegates
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ""Michael Gove's senior allies are urging MPs backing Theresa May to vote tactically to block Andrea Leadsom because they are "seriously frightened" about the prospect of her becoming prime minister.

    Nick Boles, the Justice Secretary's campaign manager, has sent a text to MPs telling them that it would be in the "national interest" for them to stop Mrs Leadsom getting to the final run-off because she may win the vote of party members.

    The message prompted anger among MPs because it appears to attack the Conservative grassroots for potentially backing Mrs Leadsom. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/michael-gove-ally-urges-theresa-may-supporters-to-back-him-and-k/
This discussion has been closed.