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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nomin

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    rkrkrk said:

    Question for Tory Remainers... do you know wish Ed Miliband had won last year?

    I wish more Lib Dems had clung on so we would have had either a continuation of the coalition or a minority government.
    Seconded. The coalition was largely a success - this Tory majority government is rapidly looking like a disaster...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Can people blaming Juncker for Brexit tell us what they think he could have done that would have stopped it?

    Not being filmed evidently drunk slapping other leaders would have been a good start....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574
    Sandpit said:

    This is funny. The Daily Mail's PMQs sketch comments section has been infiltrated by Momentum, berating everyone for daring to criticise the Great Leader.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3666937/His-arrival-greeted-silence-cold-chill-Tio-Pepe-QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-lonely-Corbyn-PMQs.html

    Quentin does have a point about Theresa May:

    "Gawd, what joylessness awaits us if she becomes Tory leader. She makes Gordon Brown look like Ken Dodd."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
    Let's hope so.
    It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites
    I wouldn't like to put them all in the same category, but I believe Champagne Populism is the new Champagne Socialism. Too many privileged people claiming to speak for the common man when they really just want to score points against members of their own class.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited June 2016

    I have a question for all you Tories on here: will Theresa May deliver on Brexit?

    I don't right now care about anything else. I want someone who will do the deed. She worries me given her siding with Cameron for remain, although admittedly she then went on radio silence.

    She did a very good job of keeping her head down during the campaign, her views are more Eurosceptic than her position to back Remain might suggest, it was done out of loyalty to the PM.

    She stands a better chance that anyone else of uniting the Party and the govt behind the exit plan - she's been more frustrated in the Home Office than almost anyone with the EU, being unable to deport criminals and control immigration.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,504
    rkrkrk said:

    Question for Tory Remainers... do you know wish Ed Miliband had won last year?

    At least then we would know where that bloody great piece of stone had gone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Question for Tory Remainers... do you know wish Ed Miliband had won last year?

    At least then we would know where that bloody great piece of stone had gone.
    Perhaps the SDP-II could call themselves the Stoner Party.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,532

    Can people blaming Juncker for Brexit tell us what they think he could have done that would have stopped it?

    Not being filmed evidently drunk slapping other leaders would have been a good start....
    Do you think that's why Britain voted Leave?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,504

    First rule of any Tory Party leader contest:

    Lay the early favourite?

    If they had any good dirt on Boris they'd have used it during the referendum campaign.
    I thought that Cameron has intervened personally to stop them doing this? And taken some stick for it afterwards.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,866
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Question for Tory Remainers... do you know wish Ed Miliband had won last year?

    At least then we would know where that bloody great piece of stone had gone.
    Isn't it generally thought that Cameron would have preferred Coalition Mk2 and he could then have ditched the referendum and blamed the LibDems?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    Sandpit said:

    I have a question for all you Tories on here: will Theresa May deliver on Brexit?

    I don't right now care about anything else. I want someone who will do the deed. She worries me given her siding with Cameron for remain, although admittedly she then went on radio silence.

    She did a very good job of keeping her head down during the campaign, her views are more Eurosceptic than her position to back Remain might suggest, it was done out of loyalty to the PM.

    She stands a better chance that anyone else of uniting the Party and the govt behind the exit plan - she's been more frustrated in the Home Office than almost anyone with the EU, being unable to deport criminals and control immigration.

    There is no exit plan. There are a selection of bad choices.

    The Leavers badly misunderstood the UK's bargaining position and completely oversold it to voters.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.

    Yep, the metropolitan elite - in charge in Parliament, in the judiciary, in the City, in the media and in business - will never get over it.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451

    Bloomberg right now is running a very negative report on Brexit. The thrust is that 'if the UK follows though' on the decision then other European hubs will benefit from more start-up capital and that the uncertainty is damaging to anyone wanting to invest.

    The mood music in America about the future of the UK is not good (unless you're on the Tea Party/Trump wing).

    We have self-harmed. Economically, reputationally and, it seems, socially the Brexit vote will prove to be disastrous. We will be poorer, less well regarded internationally and more divided at home. What larks.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    IanB2 said:

    First rule of any Tory Party leader contest:

    Lay the early favourite?

    If they had any good dirt on Boris they'd have used it during the referendum campaign.
    I thought that Cameron has intervened personally to stop them doing this? And taken some stick for it afterwards.
    There's enough about Boris already out in the open, although that's that's not to say MI5 don't have a large file on him - they undoubtedly do.

    He may be able to laugh off an affair or two as a blustery MP, but doing it outside Downing St is very different. I'm assuming that a newspaper or two that prefer someone else as PM will make sure we read all about Boris the weekend the ballots to members go out.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,866

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.

    Yep, the metropolitan elite - in charge in Parliament, in the judiciary, in the City, in the media and in business - will never get over it.

    Metropolitan elite - does that include people who went Eton and joined the Bullingdon Club at Oxford like Boris?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."

    Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
    Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
    How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?

    Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
    He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
    What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?

    I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
    But would you trust the PLP to hold up their side of the bargain once he quits?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
    Let's hope so.
    It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites
    I wouldn't like to put them all in the same category, but I believe Champagne Populism is the new Champagne Socialism. Too many privileged people claiming to speak for the common man when they really just want to score points against members of their own class.
    "Champagne Populism" is a very apt term. "Gold club Populism" would be a good alternative.

    Our unfortunate proletariat are so degraded that they have to be represented by ex-public school city spivs. They are shortly going to find out how shafted they can be. When people think "it couldn't get any worse" it almost always does!

    Will May deliver Brexit? Yes, in a technical sense; but the form under consideration will do very little to sooth the anger of the kippers, resembling the EU in all but name.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,866

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
    Let's hope so.
    It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites
    I wouldn't like to put them all in the same category, but I believe Champagne Populism is the new Champagne Socialism. Too many privileged people claiming to speak for the common man when they really just want to score points against members of their own class.
    "Champagne Populism" is a very apt term. "Gold club Populism" would be a good alternative.

    Our unfortunate proletariat are so degraded that they have to be represented by ex-public school city spivs. They are shortly going to find out how shafted they can be. When people think "it couldn't get any worse" it almost always does!

    Will May deliver Brexit? Yes, in a technical sense; but the form under consideration will do very little to sooth the anger of the kippers, resembling the EU in all but name.
    ... and giving us less while costing us more.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    The PLP don't get it if they think that choosing a dyke as leader will endear them to older socially conservative WWC voters in the North of England and Midlands, whose views led to the Leave result last week. She also has very limited appeal to the Labour selectorate, who placed her 4th in the last deputy leadership contest. She is the wrong candidate to challenge JC.

    If the Labour party aren't careful, UKIP could win swathes of seats in former Labour heartlands, like the SNP have done in the West of Scotland, at the next GE. I would personally prefer Farage as LOTO, to hold the new Con government's feet to the fire and deliver on the key arguments for Brexit, namely sovereignty and effective control and restriction of immigration. He made an excellent speech in the EU "parliament" the other day.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.

    Yep, the metropolitan elite - in charge in Parliament, in the judiciary, in the City, in the media and in business - will never get over it.

    Metropolitan elite - does that include people who went Eton and joined the Bullingdon Club at Oxford like Boris?
    Dave and George :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    weren't all the polling companies telling us that the EU was not a big issue with the electorate wrong yet again

    To be fair to the polling companies, I think it was OGH that misinterpreted the data and pushed that line.

    There were a lot of comments each time that he was ignoring the fact that people think about outcomes (e.g. immigration, wage pressure) rather than abstracts (e.g. the EU) so you couldn't say that only 5% of people put the abstract EU as the top issue meant that no one cared about it
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bloomberg right now is running a very negative report on Brexit. The thrust is that 'if the UK follows though' on the decision then other European hubs will benefit from more start-up capital and that the uncertainty is damaging to anyone wanting to invest.

    The mood music in America about the future of the UK is not good (unless you're on the Tea Party/Trump wing).

    We have self-harmed. Economically, reputationally and, it seems, socially the Brexit vote will prove to be disastrous. We will be poorer, less well regarded internationally and more divided at home. What larks.

    Chin up, old boy.

    We'll be fine.

    We always are.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    fitalass said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May

    I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.

    One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
    Ruth Davidson won't be able to continue the Tory recovery in Scotland now, will she?
    If she's the only defender of the Union she will.
    You need to listen to Dugdale's speech. A career ender for Ruth.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    Charles said:

    Bloomberg right now is running a very negative report on Brexit. The thrust is that 'if the UK follows though' on the decision then other European hubs will benefit from more start-up capital and that the uncertainty is damaging to anyone wanting to invest.

    The mood music in America about the future of the UK is not good (unless you're on the Tea Party/Trump wing).

    We have self-harmed. Economically, reputationally and, it seems, socially the Brexit vote will prove to be disastrous. We will be poorer, less well regarded internationally and more divided at home. What larks.

    Chin up, old boy.

    We'll be fine.

    We always are.

    Of course. The establishment always wins. :-)

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
    Let's hope so.
    It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites
    I wouldn't like to put them all in the same category, but I believe Champagne Populism is the new Champagne Socialism. Too many privileged people claiming to speak for the common man when they really just want to score points against members of their own class.
    72% of Common men just spoke on behalf of the common man, and everyone is trying as hard as they can to brush it under the carpet and not give them what they asked for.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Bloomberg right now is running a very negative report on Brexit. The thrust is that 'if the UK follows though' on the decision then other European hubs will benefit from more start-up capital and that the uncertainty is damaging to anyone wanting to invest.

    The mood music in America about the future of the UK is not good (unless you're on the Tea Party/Trump wing).

    We have self-harmed. Economically, reputationally and, it seems, socially the Brexit vote will prove to be disastrous. We will be poorer, less well regarded internationally and more divided at home. What larks.

    Not going to be hard to tell the difference between you and a ray of sunshine today is it ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Indigo said:

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    A perfect illustration of the problem -

    Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

    "Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

    Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

    "We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

    The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

    Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
    The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
    Let's hope so.
    It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites
    I wouldn't like to put them all in the same category, but I believe Champagne Populism is the new Champagne Socialism. Too many privileged people claiming to speak for the common man when they really just want to score points against members of their own class.
    72% of Common men just spoke on behalf of the common man, and everyone is trying as hard as they can to brush it under the carpet and not give them what they asked for.
    Untrue. Very few people seem to e suggesting we don't Leave, and leaving was the only thing we definitively asked for. What form of leave we'd like is pure conjecture, and so anything goes as long as it fits under the broad leave banner
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    kle4 said:

    Indigo said:



    72% of Common men just spoke on behalf of the common man, and everyone is trying as hard as they can to brush it under the carpet and not give them what they asked for.

    Untrue. Very few people seem to e suggesting we don't Leave, and leaving was the only thing we definitively asked for. What form of leave we'd like is pure conjecture, and so anything goes as long as it fits under the broad leave banner
    There is YouGov polling on this. Should there be a second referendum Yes 31%, No 58%. Should there be one when the terms have been decided Yes 33%, No 51%.

    A bit more than "very few" want a second referendum, but certainly there's a substantial majority in favour of accepting the decision. I think most people accept the view that you can't in the name of democracy just keep holding referenda until the "right" result is obtained.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8jgy2vu2ft/ChannelFiveResults_160628_EUReferendum_W.pdf
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