Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.
The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
Sounds like his family might step in and call this off.
They would be right to. He is essentially a placeholder for the far left now. Clearly they have run the numbers and know they won't get anyone on the ballot if Corbyn concedes.
That's a good point about running the numbers. If they thought they could get him on the ballot surely they'd switch to McD or Lewis at this point.
Zero sunspots on the sun for 6 days now, La Nina rapidly reducing global temperatures leading into the grand solar minimum from 2024 to 2034. And a few governments around the world are starting to prepare for the resultant food shortages without informing the public in advance:
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
Probably already mentioned but choosing a left-winger like Angela Eagle as the alternative to Corbyn is a bit of a double-edged option because on the one hand it makes her more likely to defeat Corbyn with the membership but less likely to be able to win a general election compared to a more centrist candidate. Labour have no choice but to put party survival first and electability second at the moment.
Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.
The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
Sounds like his family might step in and call this off.
They would be right to. He is essentially a placeholder for the far left now. Clearly they have run the numbers and know they won't get anyone on the ballot if Corbyn concedes.
That's a good point about running the numbers. If they thought they could get him on the ballot surely they'd switch to McD or Lewis at this point.
That's right. Which is why grinding him down may in fact be the best strategy despite what Dan Hodges says.
I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.
Also remember that PM Boris would have to deliver the bullshit leave manifesto, PM Theresa could appoint Boris to fail at it.
The Leave campaign was told not to bother with facts but go for the emotions. It won but very irresponsible in not telling the electorate what some of the options for Brexit would be. Total lack of thought for after-Brexit. So let Bojo put Humpty together again by appointment by PM Theresa.
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I'm on anyone but May. 6 years in her job and as the one opportunity to achieve their manifesto immigration commitment arises she suddenly keeps a low profile. She sat on the fence so much she's still picking the splinters out of her arse. 6 years of failure - not being forced to resign is too low a bar.
So in a few weeks we could potentially have a female PM and a female opposition leader. I hope May doesn't win though - really wish Gove was running, he would have been my preference.
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
From what I understand, that is the deal some of Corbyn's backers are floating to some on-the-fence members of the PLP: Corbyn will stand down if in exchange they nominate a Corbynite for the leadership contest.
By all accounts, Corbyn himself wants to quit, but feels a responsibility not to hand the party back over to the faction who stopped winning elections for Labour in 2005.
Crispin Blunt on Newsnight saying he is backing Boris in the leadership election. Blunt also argues that it would be OK for us NOT to end up with access to the single market.
Whether he's right or not, the vast majority of commentators I've heard opine that access to the single market is crucial to our economy. The market seems to take this view also. Uncertainty over this issue and its outcome seems to be paramount to our economic fortunes in the short and medium term.
So in a few weeks we could potentially have a female PM and a female opposition leader. I hope May doesn't win though - really wish Gove was running, he would have been my preference.
I'd go for Andrea Leadsom right now as the best option available. I hate to think of some of the illiberal measures trampling on civil liberties that a PM May would introduce.
Zero sunspots on the sun for 6 days now, La Nina rapidly reducing global temperatures leading into the grand solar minimum from 2024 to 2034. And a few governments around the world are starting to prepare for the resultant food shortages without informing the public in advance:
Since the result of the EU referendum,it really has hit Anna soubry hard,she's angry or ready to burst into tears in the TV appearances I have seen.
Condescending to the WWC, basically saying they're the great unwashed who have 'voted to get rid of migrants without ever having met one'. She seems to veer from extolling this view and feigning understanding of 'poor people's' plight.
I honestly thought Watson repeatedly talking of McDonnell and Corbyn as being almost one entity when he said he personally wasn't going to challenge Corbyn, might have been his way of sending an olive branch to Corbynistas - "Look, we cannot accept Corbyn, but McDonnell is the same, and we could live with him. Maybe"
Since the result of the EU referendum,it really has hit Anna soubry hard,she's angry or ready to burst into tears in the TV appearances I have seen.
Condescending to the WWC, basically saying they're the great unwashed who have 'voted to get rid of migrants without ever having met one'. She seems to veer from extolling this view and feigning understanding of 'poor people's' plight.
As someone who voted to leave, I am somewhat dismayed to see the narrative on PB.COM over the last few days. There is, understandably, a great deal of emotion from both sides but we voted to leave the EU and, as far as I know there were 3 reasons:
1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine. 2) Immigration: We voted against uncontrolled immigration, there was nothing racist in my vote whatsoever, and we can either implement a points based (Australian) system or we adjust our benefits system so that we are seen as a more desirable place for those people that want to come here to better themselves and contribute to our economy and less of a charity hand out country. 3) Economy: We would like to continue to trade with the rest of the world (including the EU) but appreciate that we would not enjoy (!) the fruits of the EU membership. So, what is the worst, the absolute worst case, of being outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.
It all comes down to that last question and the answer to that, for me, is what will decide whether I will have buyers remorse (as a Leave voter) or not. For instance, what is the impact of "Passporting" and is it a realistic issue or is it a risk (i.e. theoretical threats to our Financial Services which may or may not come to pass depending on the outcome of negotiations and current infrastructure of the City vs European locations). Finally, what is the impact of Common External Tariffs should we not strike an EEA/EFTA agreement: a. UK accepts CET rates of EU and imposes the same on imports from EU i. Britain exports to the EU based on Common External Tariffs ii. Imports to the EU from other countries coming via UK would continue to attract CET rates but UK doesn’t levy further rates and passes goods and CET on to EU iii. Imports to UK from other countries would no longer attract CET and would therefore be cheaper to UK consumers iv. Exports from UK to EU would now attract CET. How much would this increase export costs.
For me, it is the answer to these last few points regarding CET that should determine our negotiation stance (I may of course be totally wrong). If we went in to a negotiation with the EU stating that we would accept CET rates, how badly would that impact our economy. Personally I have no idea but I am sure someone on this site can inform us.
As this is a betting site, we would be far better educated if we asked, and answered, these questions as opposed to frothing off. I only ever trade in FX and I have clear views (as you will see from my post last Thursday on this site) on where those markets are going.
The risk in the approach [the plotters] have taken is that they trash his democratic mandate and forfeit the moral high ground for grubby realpolitik.
The price of doing so will be to unleash the furies of the left, who will feed on this betrayal for a generation. Egged on by their allies in the unions, they will now push for the mandatory reselection of MPs.
It bears saying that the left, no slouches with in comes to intra-party plotting, have taken repeated setbacks down the years with more grace.
When Tony Benn lost the 1981 deputy leadership contest Denis Healy by half a percentage point, the defeat was accepted. Benn, whatever his faults, would never, under any circumstances, abandon the party.
It was, of course, the moderate Labour MPs – 28 of them – who defected to the SDP, flouncing off because of the left’s growing influence.
As ever in Labour politics, we have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Except that a week is indeed a long time in politics. Time enough, it seems, to kill a political party.
As someone who voted to leave, I am somewhat dismayed to see the narrative on PB.COM over the last few days. There is, understandably, a great deal of emotion from both sides but we voted to leave the EU and, as far as I know there were 3 reasons:
1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine. 2) Immigration: We voted against uncontrolled immigration, there was nothing racist in my vote whatsoever, and we can either implement a points based (Australian) system or we adjust our benefits system so that we are seen as a more desirable place for those people that want to come here to better themselves and contribute to our economy and less of a charity hand out country. 3) Economy: We would like to continue to trade with the rest of the world (including the EU) but appreciate that we would not enjoy (!) the fruits of the EU membership. So, what is the worst, the absolute worst case, of being outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.
Those are the big three reasons, perhaps, but there was always going to be an argument which ones would be the most significant. Which ones are people happier to bend on, if they have to? Blanket statements like 'we voted against uncontrolled immigration' mean little, because while many people did (I suspect most of those who voted Leave), other leavers did not, and it cannot be certain a majority did. Indeed, if the government has a deal which doesn't really deal with the issue and don't get punished for it electorally, apparently we didn't vote against uncontrolled immigration, at least not as the price for not getting something else we want more.
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
They want rid of both. They may accept Lewis.
As I deduced yesterday.
They know Corbyn is unbeatable by any candidate from within the miserable ranks of the PLP.
Their only chance was to bluff/bully him into resigning.
It all comes down to that last question and the answer to that, for me, is what will decide whether I will have buyers remorse (as a Leave voter) or not. For instance, what is the impact of "Passporting" and is it a realistic issue or is it a risk (i.e. theoretical threats to our Financial Services which may or may not come to pass depending on the outcome of negotiations and current infrastructure of the City vs European locations). Finally, what is the impact of Common External Tariffs should we not strike an EEA/EFTA agreement: a. UK accepts CET rates of EU and imposes the same on imports from EU i. Britain exports to the EU based on Common External Tariffs ii. Imports to the EU from other countries coming via UK would continue to attract CET rates but UK doesn’t levy further rates and passes goods and CET on to EU iii. Imports to UK from other countries would no longer attract CET and would therefore be cheaper to UK consumers iv. Exports from UK to EU would now attract CET. How much would this increase export costs.
For me, it is the answer to these last few points regarding CET that should determine our negotiation stance (I may of course be totally wrong). If we went in to a negotiation with the EU stating that we would accept CET rates, how badly would that impact our economy. Personally I have no idea but I am sure someone on this site can inform us.
As this is a betting site, we would be far better educated if we asked, and answered, these questions as opposed to frothing off. I only ever trade in FX and I have clear views (as you will see from my post last Thursday on this site) on where those markets are going.
This negotiation won't just be economics though. The politics of keeping all the stakeholders happy (scotland, n.ireland, london) push towards minimal change to current arrangements.
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
They want rid of both. They may accept Lewis.
As I deduced yesterday.
They know Corbyn is unbeatable by any candidate from within the miserable ranks of the PLP.
Their only chance was to bluff/bully him into resigning.
They've failed.
If Corbyn really does stick it out, it will be a little terrifying for many Labour MPs (I still see hope he won't because I feel he is damaging his own cause not just theirs), because while they knew he didn't play by the same rules as them, they did think he was still playing the same game as them, but if he stays then he was not. They were playing poker and he was playing russian roulette. And it may be their turn.
Personally my overgrown garden just reflects that my council started charging for green waste collection separate to council tax, and at a higher cost than the increase in council tax that happened, and I refuse to pay the former so don't cut anything. I feel like Jeremy is probably cost conscious, at least in terms of personal finances, so let things grow, Mr Corbyn.
"This negotiation won't just be economics though. The politics of keeping all the stakeholders happy (scotland, n.ireland, london) push towards minimal change to current arrangements. "
Mr Dave, I am pretty sure that all the arguments for what deal would be good or bad will be around economics. All the stakeholders (as you quite rightly mention: Scotland, N. Ireland, London) will be arguing on economic grounds, however they dress the argument up.
A 1985 interview with 100 year old blind woman Millie Daniel, a Cornish bal maiden, talking about her life breaking stones from the age of 10. My grandmother was a bal maiden. Anne Maud Jory, worked in the St Agnes mines 100 years ago, she was also about 10. My grandmother!
Jesus. We are so lucky. And we are a tough people. We, the British, will endure.
Personally my overgrown garden just reflects that my council started charging for green waste collection separate to council tax, and at a higher cost than the increase in council tax that happened, and I refuse to pay the former so don't cut anything. I feel like Jeremy is probably cost conscious, at least in terms of personal finances, so let things grow, Mr Corbyn.
You should really go for the "it's a haven for nature" line.
Can someone please remind me what YouGov were saying about the result of the referendum last week? How about the GE last year?
Why should anyone pay the slightest attention to a company that is consistently wrong?
They are bad at predicting elections that cover the whole of the electorate (i.e. including the vast majority of people who have no interest in politics and would never dream of putting themselves forward for an opinion poll). However, YouGov have a good record of gauging feeling of very politically-interested groups - and membership of political parties are obviously very politically-interested.
They got the Labour leadership result spot on last year.
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
They want rid of both. They may accept Lewis.
As I deduced yesterday.
They know Corbyn is unbeatable by any candidate from within the miserable ranks of the PLP.
Their only chance was to bluff/bully him into resigning.
They've failed.
If Corbyn really does stick it out, it will be a little terrifying for many Labour MPs (I still see hope he won't because I feel he is damaging his own cause not just theirs), because while they knew he didn't play by the same rules as them, they did think he was still playing the same game as them, but if he stays then he was not. They were playing poker and he was playing russian roulette. And it may be their turn.
Their last throw of the dice is Batley, which is why some voices are urging the Eagle to abort on the launchpad tomorrow...
Who have they got in mind? Balls? Miliband, D., Brown? Blair?
Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
What do we think chances are that Corbyn's team could cut a deal that Corbyn will stand down if they are promised enough nominations for a candidate like McDonnell or Lewis to stand in leadership election?
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
They want rid of both. They may accept Lewis.
As I deduced yesterday.
They know Corbyn is unbeatable by any candidate from within the miserable ranks of the PLP.
Their only chance was to bluff/bully him into resigning.
They've failed.
If Corbyn really does stick it out, it will be a little terrifying for many Labour MPs (I still see hope he won't because I feel he is damaging his own cause not just theirs), because while they knew he didn't play by the same rules as them, they did think he was still playing the same game as them, but if he stays then he was not. They were playing poker and he was playing russian roulette. And it may be their turn.
Their last throw of the dice is Batley, which is why some voices are urging the Eagle to abort on the launchpad tomorrow...
Who have they got in mind? Balls? Miliband, Brown? Blair?
LOL
Are you laughing because you want the destruction of Labour? Or you want the utmost anarchy in British politics?
This is not a belligerent question. Genuinely curious. I'd be quite happy with the first outcome, and amused, if alarmed, by the second.
I want change, of the system, and of the creatures who inhabit it.
"Save Corbyn" seems to be the best vehicle for achieving that at the moment.
1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine.
No, this won't be meaningfully different. What will happen is that the UK will sign up to another bunch of international agreements which restrict what laws it's allowed to pass. The UK will of course be free to later leave those agreements and pass the laws that they won't let it. But exactly the same is true of the EU: The UK has sovereignty and is able to leave it, as we're seeing.
'Two messages were clear: One, Corbyn is the hard left’s only hope, and if he stands down it will never have another chance to run the party. Two, a second leadership campaign for Corbyn relies on a surge of people joining the party, putting the campaigning work in, and voting.
Momentum head James Schneider’s plea to the crowd was to join Labour and get campaigning. In a passionate speech, he cried: “If we don't do it, there is no one else who is going to do it.”
There was a similar fatalism to shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s message to the crowd, who warned that if the anti-Corbyn MPs win, “never again will we see a progressive socialist as leader of the Labour party”.
McDonnell means that if Corbyn stood down, there would be little chance that another contender from his wing of the party would make the ballot. And Schneider was clear: this audience’s demographic is the one he relies on to return another Corbyn victory and work for a Corbyn-led party.
Both points explain why Corbyn is staying in his job. The ideological slice of Labour that he represents is his political identity. What would be the point of him, as an avowed man of principle, if he was willing to walk away from the last hope he and his allies have of defining the Labour party by his principles? And if he has very few supporters outside of the new membership/young activist circles who turn up to such rallies, as Schneider suggests in his speech, then he has a lot more to lose and betray by standing down than staying put.' http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/rallying-crowd-london-students-jeremy-corbyn-showed-us-why-he-can-t-resign
We should not be at all surprised if Trump won, therefore. Trump's chance is already far better than Brexit's four months ago...
The campaign proper has not begun, and Trump seems to be becoming more focused and polished.
Clinton appears to have a 5% national lead, but Trump may be a little closer in the swing state polling (3%).
Odds of a shy-Trump factor this year? Don't bet against it...
The main problem for Trump is cash: he hasn't got any. If he can win over at least a few more of the donors who backed Romney he might be able to put up a fight.
Speaking of US sites, I follow electoral-vote.com - you have to read past the Democrat bias, but there's loads of useful data and info every day.
'Two messages were clear: One, Corbyn is the hard left’s only hope, and if he stands down it will never have another chance to run the party. Two, a second leadership campaign for Corbyn relies on a surge of people joining the party, putting the campaigning work in, and voting.
Momentum head James Schneider’s plea to the crowd was to join Labour and get campaigning. In a passionate speech, he cried: “If we don't do it, there is no one else who is going to do it.”
There was a similar fatalism to shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s message to the crowd, who warned that if the anti-Corbyn MPs win, “never again will we see a progressive socialist as leader of the Labour party”.
McDonnell means that if Corbyn stood down, there would be little chance that another contender from his wing of the party would make the ballot. And Schneider was clear: this audience’s demographic is the one he relies on to return another Corbyn victory and work for a Corbyn-led party.
Both points explain why Corbyn is staying in his job. The ideological slice of Labour that he represents is his political identity. What would be the point of him, as an avowed man of principle, if he was willing to walk away from the last hope he and his allies have of defining the Labour party by his principles? And if he has very few supporters outside of the new membership/young activist circles who turn up to such rallies, as Schneider suggests in his speech, then he has a lot more to lose and betray by standing down than staying put.' http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/rallying-crowd-london-students-jeremy-corbyn-showed-us-why-he-can-t-resign
Kevin McGuire says all the entryists are anti-Corbynites. Its true, he tells us.
Meanwhile, in other news, 48 hours before the 'coup'...
Corbyn rejects Herzog invitation to visit Israel
'British Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn wrote his Israeli counterpart, Isaac Herzog, on Thursday, turning down his invitation to come to Israel.
On April 30, Herzog wrote Corbyn a letter inviting him to Jerusalem, to visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust Museum and “better understand the scourge of anti-Semitism..." ... Corbyn thanked Herzog for his letter and the invitation but said “my existing commitments make it impossible for me to take up your offer in the immediate future.”' http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Corbyn-rejects-Herzog-invitation-to-visit-Israel-457566
We did this yesterday, the idea is that Britain would have "a trade deal" without free movement, but not one that would allow British-based financial institutions access to EU consumers. The UK financial services industry then gets shared out between Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.
The calculation is that a British government is going to have a really hard time turning this down in favour of a deal that allows unlimited EU immigration to protect (as the populists will put it) the London banksters.
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
Ruth Davidson won't be able to continue the Tory recovery in Scotland now, will she?
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
Ruth Davidson won't be able to continue the Tory recovery in Scotland now, will she?
We did this yesterday, the idea is that Britain would have "a trade deal" without free movement, but not one that would allow British-based financial institutions access to EU consumers. The UK financial services industry then gets shared out between Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.
The calculation is that a British government is going to have a really hard time turning this down in favour of a deal that allows unlimited EU immigration to protect (as the populists will put it) the London banksters.
There was a very interesting tweeter exchange between the Andrew Neil and James Mates the European Editor of ITV.
Tweeter Andrew Neil@afneil Guardian says EU will give us nothing. Mail says EU ready to give us a lot. Can I suggest almost everything said now largely irrelevant?
James Mates @jamesmatesitv 4h @afneil No. It's clearly not. There's a clear and united message by 27 being sent to anyone who'll listen. Some prefer wish fulfilment
Andrew Neil @afneil 4h4 hours ago Andrew Neil Retweeted James Mates ( and replied) Public statements are one thing. Behind scenes there are huge divisions re how to handle UK.
Andrew Neil @afneil 5h5 hours ago Just given lecture in Prague on consequences of Brexit for the EU> Much under-covered issue by myopic media?
I have also struck over the last few days by the UK TV news media's focus on the fall out of the Brexit vote for the UK, as if it is equally large impact on the EU was almost irrelevant when it is clearly not going to be the case. We have spent years talking about the fall out for the EU/Eurozone if Greece was to leave, surely the UK leaving will have an even larger impact?
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
Junckers has zero self-awareness or self-critique. He blames the result on Cameron for calling the referendum (rather than reflecting on what underlying factors might have caused the malaise with the EU in the first place) and his response to Brexit is more Europe faster for the rEU. Talk about total lack of sensitivity or political feel.
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
Ruth Davidson won't be able to continue the Tory recovery in Scotland now, will she?
Well that is very much the hope of the SNP, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Libdems and the Greens as they carry on regardless at the messages they keep being sent by the voters in the Indy Ref, Holyrood elections, and now the EU Referendum.
Can people blaming Juncker for Brexit tell us what they think he could have done that would have stopped it?
If that is aimed at me, I was not blaming him for Brexit, but remarking at his total lack of ability to look beyond superficialities to the causes of discontent with the EU across the continent. Turning a deaf ear to the electorates and ploughing on regardless with faster and more integration is hardly helpful. Blaming Brexit on an elected national leader for holding a democratic referendum on a subject which is clearly close to the heart of a very large portion of the population (as shown by the turnout - and again weren't all the polling companies telling us that the EU was not a big issue with the electorate wrong yet again) beggars belief, particularly when one of the strongest and longest standing critiques of the EU has been its democratic deficit.
Can Juncker on his own solve the problems of Europe? No, of course not. Can he, in his position, exacerbate them? Most certainly. And in my view he does. Is he the wrong man for the job (even for rEU)? I believe he is. But that is still a far cry from blaming him for Brexit.
PS I should add, however, that when all the architects of Europe and the leaders of the bureaucracy implementing it all share Juncker's attitudes, then collectively, yes, they are a large part of the cause for Brexit.
Can people blaming Juncker for Brexit tell us what they think he could have done that would have stopped it?
From the moment he took over as President of the Commission he should have gone on a PR offensive in the UK. Said that he wanted to listen, not only to the concerns of the British government, but of the British people too. Explained how much value he placed on Britain's membership of the EU. Worked to articulate how the interaction of Britain's domestic policies with the single market contributes to some of the perceived problems. Made an effort to sell the deal, not as 'the most the UK could get' but as a win-win for the UK and the EU.
Can people blaming Juncker for Brexit tell us what they think he could have done that would have stopped it?
From the moment he took over as President of the Commission he should have gone on a PR offensive in the UK. Said that he wanted to listen, not only to the concerns of the British government, but of the British people too. Explained how much value he placed on Britain's membership of the EU. Worked to articulate how the interaction of Britain's domestic policies with the single market contributes to some of the perceived problems. Made an effort to sell the deal, not as 'the most the UK could get' but as a win-win for the UK and the EU.
Right, because British people would totally have listened to him, and his words would have been reported honestly and helpfully by the British press.
Can people blaming Juncker for Brexit tell us what they think he could have done that would have stopped it?
From the moment he took over as President of the Commission he should have gone on a PR offensive in the UK. Said that he wanted to listen, not only to the concerns of the British government, but of the British people too. Explained how much value he placed on Britain's membership of the EU. Worked to articulate how the interaction of Britain's domestic policies with the single market contributes to some of the perceived problems. Made an effort to sell the deal, not as 'the most the UK could get' but as a win-win for the UK and the EU.
Right, because British people would totally have listened to him, and his words would have been reported honestly and helpfully by the British press.
If he'd been up to it he could have found a way to get the message through, even in spite of the press.
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Bloomberg right now is running a very negative report on Brexit. The thrust is that 'if the UK follows though' on the decision then other European hubs will benefit from more start-up capital and that the uncertainty is damaging to anyone wanting to invest.
The mood music in America about the future of the UK is not good (unless you're on the Tea Party/Trump wing).
It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
I am not yet fully in the Teresa May camp, but I will definitely be voting May along with fitaloon and two of our lads if the Parliamentary party leave us with a straight choice between her and Boris on the Conservative members Leadership ballot. I still want to see if Jeremy Hunt will run, and a lot more EU policy detail from Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid too.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
Ruth Davidson won't be able to continue the Tory recovery in Scotland now, will she?
Well that is very much the hope of the SNP, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Libdems and the Greens as they carry on regardless at the messages they keep being sent by the voters in the Indy Ref, Holyrood elections, and now the EU Referendum.
Ruth's position has been utterly destroyed, she is now holed below the waterline.
Her entire existence is based on "no to a second referendum" and complete opposition to Independence. But in Holyrood, her party couldn't be persuaded to vote against it - they abstained on the vote and gave Nicola a blank cheque on Indyref 2
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Segoline Royal is a little bit more than "a French woman in the government".
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
I have a question for all you Tories on here: will Theresa May deliver on Brexit?
I don't right now care about anything else. I want someone who will do the deed. She worries me given her siding with Cameron for remain, although admittedly she then went on radio silence.
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Segoline Royal is a little bit more than "a French woman in the government".
You mean the first woman in French politics to be the Presidential candidate of a major party? Or the woman who is the ex-lover of someone else ... Or the woman who is one of the most senior members of the government? It does get confusing...
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
Morning. Good to hear about the Yougov, and that the members polled would go for May. She's clearly the best candidate to unite the party and see it through the turbulent times ahead - and my £100 at 10/1 has no bearing on that opinion.
This is funny. The Daily Mail's PMQs sketch comments section has been infiltrated by Momentum, berating everyone for daring to criticise the Great Leader.
I have a question for all you Tories on here: will Theresa May deliver on Brexit?
I don't right now care about anything else. I want someone who will do the deed. She worries me given her siding with Cameron for remain, although admittedly she then went on radio silence.
Yes.
Now, what do you mean by BREXIT?
If you mean "end immigration from the EU" I suspect the answer is "no" - none of them will.
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.
The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.
Let's hope so.
It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites
Comments
(There surely must be at least one Leave MP in the final two)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/fema-contractor-unrest-after-395-food-price-spike-coming-soon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJVROcKFnBQ
Sensible being the Conservative & Unionist Party of course.
I guess it depends whether it is Corbyn himself they want rid of or the platform under which he runs.
Good night.
Tomorrow, we go again!
By all accounts, Corbyn himself wants to quit, but feels a responsibility not to hand the party back over to the faction who stopped winning elections for Labour in 2005.
Whether he's right or not, the vast majority of commentators I've heard opine that access to the single market is crucial to our economy. The market seems to take this view also. Uncertainty over this issue and its outcome seems to be paramount to our economic fortunes in the short and medium term.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YO9F6BDffx4
(I was about to say "if I a man can survive an inverted pyramid of piffle...", but of course his career didn't survive - it needed resurrection.)
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/746240313417670656
People have given the political class one major kick up the arse, if they choose to ignore it'll be revolution next. They're on notice!
Could be a clincher for me!
we voted to leave the EU and, as far as I know there were 3 reasons:
1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine.
2) Immigration: We voted against uncontrolled immigration, there was nothing racist in my vote whatsoever, and we can either implement a points based (Australian) system or we adjust our benefits system so that we are seen as a more desirable place for those people that want to come here to better themselves and contribute to our economy and less of a charity hand out country.
3) Economy: We would like to continue to trade with the rest of the world (including the EU) but appreciate that we would not enjoy (!) the fruits of the EU membership. So, what is the worst, the absolute worst case, of being outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.
It all comes down to that last question and the answer to that, for me, is what will decide whether I will have buyers remorse (as a Leave voter) or not. For instance, what is the impact of "Passporting" and is it a realistic issue or is it a risk (i.e. theoretical threats to our Financial Services which may or may not come to pass depending on the outcome of negotiations and current infrastructure of the City vs European locations).
Finally, what is the impact of Common External Tariffs should we not strike an EEA/EFTA agreement:
a. UK accepts CET rates of EU and imposes the same on imports from EU
i. Britain exports to the EU based on Common External Tariffs
ii. Imports to the EU from other countries coming via UK would continue to attract CET rates but UK doesn’t levy further rates and passes goods and CET on to EU
iii. Imports to UK from other countries would no longer attract CET and would therefore be cheaper to UK consumers
iv. Exports from UK to EU would now attract CET. How much would this increase export costs.
For me, it is the answer to these last few points regarding CET that should determine our negotiation stance (I may of course be totally wrong). If we went in to a negotiation with the EU stating that we would accept CET rates, how badly would that impact our economy. Personally I have no idea but I am sure someone on this site can inform us.
As this is a betting site, we would be far better educated if we asked, and answered, these questions as opposed to frothing off. I only ever trade in FX and I have clear views (as you will see from my post last Thursday on this site) on where those markets are going.
The risk in the approach [the plotters] have taken is that they trash his democratic mandate and forfeit the moral high ground for grubby realpolitik.
The price of doing so will be to unleash the furies of the left, who will feed on this betrayal for a generation. Egged on by their allies in the unions, they will now push for the mandatory reselection of MPs.
It bears saying that the left, no slouches with in comes to intra-party plotting, have taken repeated setbacks down the years with more grace.
When Tony Benn lost the 1981 deputy leadership contest Denis Healy by half a percentage point, the defeat was accepted. Benn, whatever his faults, would never, under any circumstances, abandon the party.
It was, of course, the moderate Labour MPs – 28 of them – who defected to the SDP, flouncing off because of the left’s growing influence.
As ever in Labour politics, we have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Except that a week is indeed a long time in politics. Time enough, it seems, to kill a political party.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/06/29/plotters-beware-you-are-leaving-corbyn-with-the-moral-high-ground/
Lay the early favourite?
Good night all.
They know Corbyn is unbeatable by any candidate from within the miserable ranks of the PLP.
Their only chance was to bluff/bully him into resigning.
They've failed.
Deal with it...
I backed her quite heavily @ 2/1, guessing a 60%/40% split in her favour among members vs Boris. Nice to see my assessment validated by Yougov.
If someone else gains traction (Fox?) I'll review my assessment of her chances, but I don't currently see the logic for why she's above evens.
Can Corbyn survives this?
Personally my overgrown garden just reflects that my council started charging for green waste collection separate to council tax, and at a higher cost than the increase in council tax that happened, and I refuse to pay the former so don't cut anything. I feel like Jeremy is probably cost conscious, at least in terms of personal finances, so let things grow, Mr Corbyn.
Mr Dave, I am pretty sure that all the arguments for what deal would be good or bad will be around economics. All the stakeholders (as you quite rightly mention: Scotland, N. Ireland, London) will be arguing on economic grounds, however they dress the argument up.
Why should anyone pay the slightest attention to a company that is consistently wrong?
They got the Labour leadership result spot on last year.
Who have they got in mind? Balls? Miliband, D., Brown? Blair?
LOL
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right/
He could call it the Garden Party.
If he comes out and backs Corbyn that is.
"Save Corbyn" seems to be the best vehicle for achieving that at the moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/29/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-nate-silver-poll-prediction
PEC says 70%.
We should not be at all surprised if Trump won, therefore. Trump's chance is already far better than Brexit's four months ago...
The campaign proper has not begun, and Trump seems to be becoming more focused and polished.
Clinton appears to have a 5% national lead, but Trump may be a little closer in the swing state polling (3%).
Odds of a shy-Trump factor this year? Don't bet against it...
538 seems to get everything wrong.
Did you catch the EU parliament session yesterday? They almost said they would be reforming it for a "safe and secure society"... almost..
Momentum head James Schneider’s plea to the crowd was to join Labour and get campaigning. In a passionate speech, he cried: “If we don't do it, there is no one else who is going to do it.”
There was a similar fatalism to shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s message to the crowd, who warned that if the anti-Corbyn MPs win, “never again will we see a progressive socialist as leader of the Labour party”.
McDonnell means that if Corbyn stood down, there would be little chance that another contender from his wing of the party would make the ballot. And Schneider was clear: this audience’s demographic is the one he relies on to return another Corbyn victory and work for a Corbyn-led party.
Both points explain why Corbyn is staying in his job. The ideological slice of Labour that he represents is his political identity. What would be the point of him, as an avowed man of principle, if he was willing to walk away from the last hope he and his allies have of defining the Labour party by his principles? And if he has very few supporters outside of the new membership/young activist circles who turn up to such rallies, as Schneider suggests in his speech, then he has a lot more to lose and betray by standing down than staying put.'
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/rallying-crowd-london-students-jeremy-corbyn-showed-us-why-he-can-t-resign
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3666971/Europe-starts-crack-migrants-French-say-Britain-trade-deal-control-border.html
Speaking of US sites, I follow electoral-vote.com - you have to read past the Democrat bias, but there's loads of useful data and info every day.
Corbyn rejects Herzog invitation to visit Israel
'British Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn wrote his Israeli counterpart, Isaac Herzog, on Thursday, turning down his invitation to come to Israel.
On April 30, Herzog wrote Corbyn a letter inviting him to Jerusalem, to visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust Museum and “better understand the scourge of anti-Semitism..."
...
Corbyn thanked Herzog for his letter and the invitation but said “my existing commitments make it impossible for me to take up your offer in the immediate future.”'
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Corbyn-rejects-Herzog-invitation-to-visit-Israel-457566
The calculation is that a British government is going to have a really hard time turning this down in favour of a deal that allows unlimited EU immigration to protect (as the populists will put it) the London banksters.
One other question in the aftermath of the EU Referendum result, why is Jean-Claude Juncker still in his job, let alone going to be anywhere the near the renegotiations?! I think that his badly timed interventions in the days leading up to the vote were incredible unhelpful to the Remain campaign, and therefore incredible damaging to the stability of the whole EU project in the longer term. Juncker maybe a long time politician, but he is not a very successful diplomat! If any other countries now head to the EU Referendum exit door, surely he really must consider his position as the man who saw the whole EU project derail under his watch?
Tweeter
Andrew Neil@afneil
Guardian says EU will give us nothing. Mail says EU ready to give us a lot. Can I suggest almost everything said now largely irrelevant?
James Mates @jamesmatesitv 4h
@afneil No. It's clearly not. There's a clear and united message by 27 being sent to anyone who'll listen. Some prefer wish fulfilment
Andrew Neil @afneil 4h4 hours ago
Andrew Neil Retweeted James Mates ( and replied)
Public statements are one thing. Behind scenes there are huge divisions re how to handle UK.
Andrew Neil @afneil 5h5 hours ago
Just given lecture in Prague on consequences of Brexit for the EU> Much under-covered issue by myopic media?
I have also struck over the last few days by the UK TV news media's focus on the fall out of the Brexit vote for the UK, as if it is equally large impact on the EU was almost irrelevant when it is clearly not going to be the case. We have spent years talking about the fall out for the EU/Eurozone if Greece was to leave, surely the UK leaving will have an even larger impact?
Can Juncker on his own solve the problems of Europe? No, of course not. Can he, in his position, exacerbate them? Most certainly. And in my view he does. Is he the wrong man for the job (even for rEU)? I believe he is. But that is still a far cry from blaming him for Brexit.
PS I should add, however, that when all the architects of Europe and the leaders of the bureaucracy implementing it all share Juncker's attitudes, then collectively, yes, they are a large part of the cause for Brexit.
Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?
"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."
Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?
"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.
The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?
The mood music in America about the future of the UK is not good (unless you're on the Tea Party/Trump wing).
Her entire existence is based on "no to a second referendum" and complete opposition to Independence. But in Holyrood, her party couldn't be persuaded to vote against it - they abstained on the vote and gave Nicola a blank cheque on Indyref 2
I don't right now care about anything else. I want someone who will do the deed. She worries me given her siding with Cameron for remain, although admittedly she then went on radio silence.
She's clearly the best candidate to unite the party and see it through the turbulent times ahead - and my £100 at 10/1 has no bearing on that opinion.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3666937/His-arrival-greeted-silence-cold-chill-Tio-Pepe-QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-lonely-Corbyn-PMQs.html
Now, what do you mean by BREXIT?
If you mean "end immigration from the EU" I suspect the answer is "no" - none of them will.