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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nomin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close
Let us lust remind ourselves how the CON leadership election works. There will be a series of secret ballot of MPs until they get down to a final two – then the choice will be made by party members in a postal ballot.
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She made a very interesting point that I've not seen made elsewhere. With Brexit, the free trade faction of the EU won't have the 35% blocking threshold that it has with us as a member.
Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.
The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/working-eu-uk-free-movement-permit-easy-entry-migrants-jobs-automatic-rights-?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
And PBers generally (less a betting tip, but perhaps an indicator of mood)
On the labour side, interesting times, if corbyn survives and purges the labour party (Creepy Tom watson was looking decidely sheepish now the plot has failed-ish) then no one can accuse him of lacking leadership or guts. All he needs is a young protege in the wings and slightly moderated policies (bear in mind that the world is becoming more and more unequal and therefore heading to the left) and i would not right off his chances in 2020 (and i think it will be then as any earlier will look like cynical opportunism and be punished)
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/our-next-tory-leader-survey-finds-may-leading-johnson-by-just-ten-votes-in-well-over-a-thousand.html
His career might be over if he doesn't win it, do you think? Or hyperbole?
We need to start seeing more MP declarations though. I think the last I heard was May could count on around 70-80 and Boris 100. May needs a few more converts to be guaranteed a spot in the final ballot. Polls like this will help though.
I've said this a lot, and my fellow leavers don't like it, but in a scenario where the PM had backed leave, there is absolutely no chance that Boris would be on any side other than remain.
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom
http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/gove-chief-negotiator-boris-leadsom-summit-priti-rumours/
Someone who can calm the markets. Someone with experience. Someone who knows where the bodies are buried.
Yes, step forward, George Osborne...
McDonnell compares the Parliamentary Labour Party to “a lynch mob without a rope”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-resignation-news-latest-john-mcdonnell-compares-parliamentary-labour-party-to-lynch-a7110076.html
Remarkably, 87 broke for Theresa May. Of the two that chose Johnson, the second said they'd change their mind when I told them who the other person backing Boris was.
Has he become that toxic already to those in the sticks?
So the poll of party members is no surprise based on my straw poll.... except to say that I wonder whether it's actually OVERstating Boris's support.
I was also told by a Parliamentarian that a bombshell revelation with 'news from Scotland' is due, which might explain the change in tone amongst some of the broadsheets, who now seem much more open minded to the TM4PM message. :Cryptic:
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
It can be a real downer for the country, as we are seeing now, when there is a leadership vacuum while the Tories are governing the country, so a simple "membership vote in opposition, MP vote in power" would make sense. It was eminently foreseeable that sitting PMs are quite likely to be toppled during some sort of crisis, and a lame duck or temporary PM can then be very damaging. (Since such crises might involve lack of confidence in the PM from backbenchers, it would make particular sense in this scenario to ensure that the new leader has majority support from MPs, not just "scraped into the final two" levels of support.)
I appreciate that there are some other scenarios e.g. "orderly handing over of the reins of power" where a membership vote might make sense even while in government, so perhaps a more sophisticated rule change might be in order, but I am surprised I haven't seen serious discontent at the current rules. (Must be some furious Tories watching Sturgeon strutting about and thinking "she owns the stage until September - can't my party get a move on?")
Ken Clarke MP
Jim Dowd MP
Anna Soubry MP
David Lammy MP
Tam Dalyell
Richard Dawkins
Michael Heseltine
David Aaronovitch
'but it is hard to look beyond May at the still generous 8/1 in the same market.'
http://nationbuilder.com
There's talk of weighting the votes into an electoral college of both MPs and members.
They want to avoid the IDS situation where he was elected with only the support of 1/3 of Tory MPs and 2/3 thinking he was useful as a chocolate fireguard
I'd like to see Osborne out pronto. That last budget was a political disaster. He is meant to be a political chancellor.
Step forward, IDS...
twitter.com/lewisiwu/status/746076633644281856
£350 quid a week for the NHS, job done...
"Boris is too divisive"
"We need a serious political to deal with the EU talks"
Were the reasons given.
Labour WPM (until extinction) = 0
PS Was only joking with the 'heartless swine' remark. I hope I haven't offended you!
Not probable at all, but I think public pronouncements or acceptance that out is out mean little right now - so soon after only fools could declare that their approach, but there are people who would revive it as a possibility if things unravel much more significantly prior to article 50.
(Seriously - the more I see of him, the higher my regard... though he's not PM material in the current age, he should have a more prominent role somehow..)
"Andrea Leadsom, billed by anyone who’d met her as a rising star in the party, was repeatedly left out of reshuffles because she had the temerity to question Osborne’s handling of the Libor scandal in 2012. She was eventually made economic secretary to the Treasury — Tories suggested this was a case of Osborne keeping his enemies closer — and is now minister of state for the rather lesser Department of Energy and Climate Change."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/08/inside-george-osbornes-empire-how-the-chancellor-rules-westminster/
JRM would make an excellent Brexit negotiator. EXCELLENT.
Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
Brexit (thanks to Corbers) is their meteorite.
Yes, I think she nailed what many Conservative members and the general public think about Boris and why he backed Leave...
Or did you mean "not the man you want to drive you home at the end of the evening", which has touches of "something of the night about him" but rather more ominous for a man with a complex history of relationships.
What a sad man hanging around in parliament.
...or will be asking the Electoral Commission to re-register itself as The Silly Party...