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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No wonder Nigel Farage in unconceding – Big moves on Betfai

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  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,358

    Sterling down 6c in 10 mins.

    Sky just covering this drop in Sterling.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    A big result, but don't forget the also big 70 % remain figure mentioned for Wandsworth, as possibly representing the other end of the scale. If so, it would be extraordinary if the weather really did win it for the Leavers.

    God Blew And They Were Scattered.

    http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.383910.1315795175!/image/3763283114.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_640/3763283114.jpg
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    A big result, but don't forget the also big 70 % remain figure mentioned for Wandsworth, as possibly representing the other end of the scale. If so, it would be extraordinary if the weather really did win it for the Leavers.

    70% is only par for Remain in Wandsworth !
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 188
    The secrect people of the North East are speaking quite loudly now.
  • pound is plummeting. Genuinely worried how its gonna impact other markets tomorrow
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    IanB2 said:

    £ down six cents in half an hour, utterly unprecedented

    0.6 cents
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    I bet the pollsters from the city are getting some phone calls right about now....and I doubt they are congratulating them on a cracking job.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    rcs1000 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Looking 54:46 to LEAVE nationally

    (early days), but EVERYWHERE has been better for Leave, so far

    I think Scotland continues to look 60:40 for Remain

    But NE England definitely better for Leave than expected
    Yes but the turnout in Scotland is pish. 58% Remain in Scotland overall with a low turnout is not useful to Remain.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,446
    murali_s said:

    If Remain don't deliver in Labour areas, it's bye bye Corbyn.

    Why? Corbyn's getting what he wanted. It's all set up perfectly for him.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    RobD said:

    Anyone got on at 17?!

    14 Happy days.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Brace, brace, brace.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeL said:

    Astonishing.

    Only saver for Remain would be if Con areas above par for Remain.

    We don't have any Con area results yet.

    Though we do have straws in the wind from Crawley and Broxbourne, which apparently look good for Leave.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    DavidL said:

    6c off the £. Wow. That is major.

    Nothing to what you might see tomorrow
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Wow.. been out all evening. Sevenoaks to Sittingbourne and back, twice. 4 hours driving.

    Knackered and had promised myself I ould go to bed after a quick peek at the results so far. I'm actually trembling right now... could Leave possibly have done it? The high turnout was what made me think earlier today Leave might just sneak it- if you don't normally vote, it is quite possibly because you feel your vote won't make a difference. So, If you decide to vote this time, presumably the chances are that you are more likely tto vote Leave? Maybe.

    It's going to be a long night.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Median LEAVE gap analysis

    6.77% better than Hanretty (50/50 or 0% lead)
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    weejonnie said:

    Returning officer in Sunderland almost in tears.

    She looked like a very unhappy Remain voter.
    Was thinking the same. Sotham is a genius. The experts know nothing.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    SKY's swingometer 49.5% IN - OUT 50.5.

    Now there's a result, I’ll admit, I thought I’d not see at any point during the counting.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,291
    Leave still nearly 2/1. Suggests a lot of people think Sunderland an aberration.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,303
    Sunderland 61:39 Leave

    Wow!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dadge said:

    God the emotion in the Sunderland returning officer's voice - as if she was announcing that the National Front had just won the parliamentary seats.

    The presenters on all the channels are very nervous now too.

    Vine on BBC was trying to play it all down, it's all very amusing. Whether we win or lose - there are some cockle warming moments already
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,970
    OUT said:

    That Scottish result must worry remain.

    Which one? Both are more than 60:40 for Remain, and neither are the most Remain friendly areas of Scotland.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Has the Remain Campaign now officially usurped Andy Burnham's 2015 leadership bid as the worst election campaign in history?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
    I saw plenty of white vans and black cabs at the polling station near the Maypole in Chigwell at 6pm tonight.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,291
    weejonnie said:

    IanB2 said:

    £ down six cents in half an hour, utterly unprecedented

    0.6 cents
    No, it's six: 1.50 to 1.44
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,581
    Why were traders so complacent about assuming Remain had it in the bag?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Betfair prices now imply a 36% probability of a Leave win.

    Leave look as though they've won it. A bad night for the country, but a good night for my pocket!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Kezia Dugdale on Sky now LOL looking like a rabbit in the headlights!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Which is the first shire result we expect chaps?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    new thread!!!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Looking 54:46 to LEAVE nationally

    (early days), but EVERYWHERE has been better for Leave, so far

    I think Scotland continues to look 60:40 for Remain

    But NE England definitely better for Leave than expected
    I think the percentage in area is not as crucial as the turnout in each. If London does not hit 70%, then Remain is toast.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    London should still put Remain over; London's biiiiiig.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,161

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,706
    RodCrosby said:

    Looking 54:46 to LEAVE nationally

    Remind me again what my prediction since Autumn last year is?

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736
    edited June 2016
    weejonnie said:

    IanB2 said:

    £ down six cents in half an hour, utterly unprecedented

    0.6 cents
    6 cents.
    If this reflects estimates of around 85 per cent versus 55, the pound has about another ten cents to fall in case of LEAVE. UK losing 10 per cent of its purchasing power in an evening.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Betfair struggling to believe it - bouncing back to 1.45
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,693
    Leave first in ENGLAND approaching crossover on Betfair.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204

    DavidL said:

    6c off the £. Wow. That is major.

    Nothing to what you might see tomorrow
    Nah, forex will move overnight.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Trying to clutch at straws:

    Maybe the Remain favourability of the cities has been overstated because of students. Maybe it's just impossible to predict where each area fits on the spectrum.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    edited June 2016

    Leave still nearly 2/1. Suggests a lot of people think Sunderland an aberration.

    GE2010....early signs were that Tories were doing better than expected, ended up worse. Some places in the NE they got significant vote shares in places they never normally get anything.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    DanSmith said:

    A big result, but don't forget the also big 70 % remain figure mentioned for Wandsworth, as possibly representing the other end of the scale. If so, it would be extraordinary if the weather really did win it for the Leavers.

    70% is only par for Remain in Wandsworth !
    The weather wouldn't have affected Wandsworth. I was there today. Masses of youngsters sticking IN badges on people. It certainly felt very IN, but we will see...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    REMAIN still favourites

    All about the massive London REMAIN vote!!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204

    Betfair struggling to believe it - bouncing back to 1.45

    I've been feeling for weeks that BF might be wrong, and for days that it was new punters getting involved. Mates of mine who don't even bet on the national were getting involved posting awful odds remain betslips on fb.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,303
    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
    I saw plenty of white vans and black cabs at the polling station near the Maypole in Chigwell at 6pm tonight.
    Chigwell? You're next-door to my home patch :)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pound shooting up vs Euro
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    What is Betfair now?
  • Why were traders so complacent about assuming Remain had it in the bag?

    I dont know but I thought the odds were silly and dived in.

    How come no one is offering 6-1 leave anymore - innocent face?

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Fenster said:

    What is Betfair now?

    3.1 nerves settling
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Listening to what Nigel Farage said about the last-minute registrations, he sounded as though he was ~conceding victory to MI5. But he may have lost the (complicated) plot...and won the referendum.

    Why were traders so complacent about assuming Remain had it in the bag?

    Traders may be bigger herders than the pollsters are!
  • Why were traders so complacent about assuming Remain had it in the bag?

    They weren't, they pushed the price up to set up the fall - as I mentioned a couple of threads ago
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    EPG said:

    weejonnie said:

    IanB2 said:

    £ down six cents in half an hour, utterly unprecedented

    0.6 cents
    6 cents.
    If this reflects estimates of around 85 per cent versus 55, the pound has about another ten cents to fall in case of LEAVE. UK losing 10 per cent of its purchasing power in an evening.
    Must be using different charts - Google shows 1.44 XE shows 1.48875
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    When's the next major shock/ result?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Why do these things have to go on so late I should really be up marking exams in the morning
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    houndtang said:

    Why do these things have to go on so late I should really be up marking exams in the morning

    If leave win give everyone 10 bonus marks.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016

    corporeal said:

    Surely it should be "the total number of votes cast 'were' rather than 'was' "

    Nope, "number" is a singular noun.
    I agree with "the number of votes cast was", but your reasoning is a bit hypercorrect. I'm with Ernest Gowers: say "number were" when "number" denotes a composite plural subject, with the idea of plurality heavy in the air, e.g. "a large number of people are coming"; say "number was" when the idea of the singular subject "number" is heavy in the air, e.g. "the number of people coming is large".

    Latest news: a reporter on Radio 4, in some trading room somewhere, has described the traders as like teenagers who've had too much "caffeine".

    Betfair implied probability for Leave is now 38%.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    John_N4 said:

    Listening to what Nigel Farage said about the last-minute registrations, he sounded as though he was ~conceding victory to MI5. But he may have lost the (complicated) plot...and won the referendum.

    Why were traders so complacent about assuming Remain had it in the bag?

    Traders may be bigger herders than the pollsters are!
    Pissed presumably.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Where's up next?
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    North Works poss 70/30 Leave...hang on..maybe 80/20.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    A big majority for Leave is predicted in the Welsh valleys, including Ebbw Vale Blaenau Gwent.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    The pound has fallen sharply again in the past two minutes.

    Swindon: 55% Leave.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    No good news for remain to cling to
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    And I'm keen to cling to something
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Leave 53.1% with about 2.1% of votes counted.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Imagine US based investors getting this stuff.

    Kettering?? Where the f8ck is KettERING???
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Big leave win in Basildon apparently

    Clive not looking too chuffed
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Oxford councillor in scrap with bouncers outside the count.
This discussion has been closed.