Crawley is only 72% white British which is why my formula was giving a relatively good figure for Remain but maybe EMs in a place like Crawley are more Leave than I expected.
Twitter Stephen Daisley @JournoStephen 16m16 minutes ago Remain campaign tells @STVColin that in Liberton (average middle class area in Edinburgh), so far it's 75% Remain/25% Leave. #EURef
Edinburgh shd be a par of 73%.
Liberton is posh Edinburgh. Places like Wester Hailes will be 60%+ Leave.
Yes, surely that's the highest they're gonna get.
Places like Central and even though its SNP, North Leith (which is very young) will also be high Remain. But there's enough pockets to vote Leave to bring the total below the par figure.
I didn't exactly "crawl over broken glass" to vote LEAVE today, but expended about 5 hours and a Virgin West Coast return train fare between London and Coventry, and nearly got soaked exiting my local Tube station. Nearly
I wondered if you'd had to swim. D'you remember the ad for Milk Tray?
Remain's only hope now is that the middle-class Home County Tory voters have gone heavily Remain - to compensate for Labour voters going much more heavily Leave than expected.
Lets say it, Leave looks to be miles ahead of where it needs to be to win. This isn't even close at the moment.
Early days, early days
This is a very strange and unfamiliar feeling. Very little, but potentially hugely significant little groups of information - or not. It's almost like relying on soothsayers or witches, who might suddenly turn out to be shockingly right- or triumphantly making fools of all . I prefer election nights.
Mr. VW, worth noting the NE was a good area for UKIP in the General Election. If there's high turnout in London, that could counterbalance this.
Edited extra bit: Dr. Prasannan, I think you're confusing Sunderland/Newcastle. Former should be 54% Leave for parity. Roughly the reverse, I think, for Newcastle.
I just can't get over the Newcastle result. The residential areas within the city boundaries are affluent and full of students. I've seen nothing but remain literature within the city centre.
Remain's only hope now is that the middle-class Home County Tory voters have gone heavily Remain - to compensate for Labour voters going much more heavily Leave than expected.
I'm feeling like £700 is in my back pocket and I didn't put a single bet on till I backed Leave today. Plus a much higher chance of Indyref 2. Christmas in June.
The octo-lemur wish to remind the site they predicted 52% victory for Leave.
More importantly, kudos to Mr. Putney. His double digit (12/1, I think) tip on the margin being within 1% is looking promising.
Ahem, not just the octo-lemur. WHy is that not being reported as a disaster for Remain? They can still win it back in London but there is going to be some very heavy lifting there on this result.
Remain's only hope now is that the middle-class Home County Tory voters have gone heavily Remain - to compensate for Labour voters going much more heavily Leave than expected.
I just can't get over the Newcastle result. The residential areas within the city boundaries are affluent and full of students. I've seen nothing but remain literature within the city centre.
Even if TeamLeave loses - I'm very proud of my fellow Geordies right now.
Re: previous thread. The Channel Islands aren't part of the EU, but some of them that migrated at the full moon during the year of the mackerel are eligible to vote.
Given what we've seen so far as well as comments - I wonder if this is splitting more on Class lines than expected. If Remain win - it looks like they will need stronger than expected performance in the true blue home counties / tory shires. The first of which expected to declare is Hart by my spreadsheet. (Hanratty hs 50/50, Andy has 52/48 in favour of Remain)
Just a point of warning...Remember 2010 when early results showed Tories doing better than expected in places like the NE, but ended up doing worse elsewhere.
Comments
Apart from those counting the votes! (and MI5)
More importantly, kudos to Mr. Putney. His double digit (12/1, I think) tip on the margin being within 1% is looking promising.
Remain 65,404 Leave 63,598
r 65,404
l 63,598
Remain: 65,404 (50.7%)
Leave: 63,598 (49.3%)
Relatively good result for Leave. I was expecting 56% Remain.
JUST WOW at the Newcastle result. Will be amazing if Sunderland backs it up with something like 60-40
PANIC! PANIC!
Outside the 90% CI
!
LAB Leave vote solid
This is far from over!!
This is a good number for Leave. Not amazing. But good.
Edited extra bit: Dr. Prasannan, I think you're confusing Sunderland/Newcastle. Former should be 54% Leave for parity. Roughly the reverse, I think, for Newcastle.
Orkney supposed to be 58:42 remain.
right?
that splashing sound is Dave and Georges bowls evacuating
Hmmmmm...
I can handle the despair - it's the hope that i can't handle.
Remain: 7,189 (63.2%)
Leave: 4,193 (36.8%)