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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No wonder Nigel Farage in unconceding – Big moves on Betfai

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,303

    Mr. VW, worth noting the NE was a good area for UKIP in the General Election. If there's high turnout in London, that could counterbalance this.

    Edited extra bit: Dr. Prasannan, I think you're confusing Sunderland/Newcastle. Former should be 54% Leave for parity. Roughly the reverse, I think, for Newcastle.

    Mr Dancer, I was just a bit worried that's all!
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Newcastle more or less as expected

    Leave have won this. Just as expected.

    Remain need huge wins in London, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Home Counties.
    Do you have a link to your spreadsheet?
    and the weather in London and the South East might b***** that up for the Remain side.
  • EICIPM
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it update!

    Leave might win now!

    Or maybe not!!

    Great to see you back, 'Ave It!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    BBC woman reporting from Sunderland looks close to tears. Expecting a great LEAVE result then!

    It's taken the wind out of a lot of BBC and Sky sails. Sky were unbearable earlier - they were virtually claiming Remain victory before a single result.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263

    I just can't get over the Newcastle result. The residential areas within the city boundaries are affluent and full of students. I've seen nothing but remain literature within the city centre.

    Students have all gone home.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Orkney slightly worse for Remain than Hanretty
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    Come on you Tories in your shires. Think about your stocks and your house prices.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Any updates on Swindon?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    £ down
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Disraeli said:

    Newcastle! NO! NO! NO! I can't handle this!
    I can handle the despair - it's the hope that i can't handle.

    My feelings exactly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,641
    tyson said:

    Come on you Tories in your shires. Think about your stocks and your house prices.

    That's the problem - your mob don't give a shit about them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813
    edited June 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Crawley over 60% Leave

    Oh, come on, Mr Hyfud, what use is that post, give us a link at least!
    There is no link at present, it was a TV report
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
  • That remain party place has the potential to be the worst party ever.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    I wonder how much of the expert predictions etc are hindered by student movement, most GEs are in May when students will be in there university constituencies. In late June they'll be back in their home ones.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Sky have moved Kay Burley from the Remain party to the Leave party.

    I suggest that is quite important. Audibly more noise at the Leave party.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Dimblebore rattled. Snapping at Curtis.
  • wife just got home
    shes just asked why is Dimbleby getting cross :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    Danny565 said:

    Is it just me, or are these BBC reporters at the counts getting progressively more grim-faced as the night goes on.

    Are you saying the world renowned impartiality isn't being upheld? Perhaps it is the thought of no champers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,641

    I just can't get over the Newcastle result. The residential areas within the city boundaries are affluent and full of students. I've seen nothing but remain literature within the city centre.

    Students have all gone home.
    Absolutely.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Stephen Bush ‏@stephenkb 3m3 minutes ago
    So, it's Brexit, then.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Pong getting £10 richer by the minute.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    50.7% - 49.3% in Newcastle.

    Wow.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    I just can't get over the Newcastle result. The residential areas within the city boundaries are affluent and full of students. I've seen nothing but remain literature within the city centre.

    Students have all gone home.
    That concerns me about the Newcastle result, lets see. GBPUSD looking uneasy in the 1.4830's - primed for another drop............
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Newcastle more or less as expected

    Leave have won this. Just as expected.

    Remain need huge wins in London, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Home Counties.
    Do you have a link to your spreadsheet?
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
  • I just can't get over the Newcastle result. The residential areas within the city boundaries are affluent and full of students. I've seen nothing but remain literature within the city centre.

    Students have all gone home.
    Its Jesmond and Gosforth vs Kenton, Byker, Benwell. Trad Labour voters are speaking.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,581
    Maybe Leave were right to say experts don't know what they're talking about [on election programmes...].
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,303
    "Leaving Me Now" - Level 42:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcCW31tfojk
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Need more data!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Surprised Curtice can't work out 20% of 45
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    SPIN all suspended again. binary index was 82 (to sell Remain) when I first looked, 74.25 before most recent suspension
  • tyson said:

    Come on you Tories in your shires. Think about your stocks and your house prices.

    Sadly I think you will find that they probably have
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813
    edited June 2016
    DavidL said:

    Leave have won or Curtice is miles out.

    Curtice is miles out, UKIP won 14% in Newcastle Central at the general election 13% nationally, his model saying it would be a Remain landslide is farcical, it should be a truly marginal area!!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    AndyJS said:

    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Newcastle more or less as expected

    Leave have won this. Just as expected.

    Remain need huge wins in London, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Home Counties.
    Do you have a link to your spreadsheet?
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
    Thanks
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    Turnout, turnout. Come on you lovely Leavers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,415
    RodCrosby said:

    Orkney slightly worse for Remain than Hanretty

    Quite a bit worse than Curtice but it a tiddler compared with Newcastle.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Starfall said:

    Remember there will be 110% turn out in parts of London... ;-)

    Oh God. The establishment rigging the UK to remain in the EU because of Muslim election fraud would be every swivel eyed conspiracy theory rolled into one.
    Using pencils to do so!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,291
    Unsurprising. The Forex markets have been nutty - this was always a close race and they were taking the result as read.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    corporeal said:

    I wonder how much of the expert predictions etc are hindered by student movement, most GEs are in May when students will be in there university constituencies. In late June they'll be back in their home ones.

    I said this earlier. I was on a uni campus today & the polling station there was obviously a ghost town & I thought at the time I wonder if Cameron has made a mistake here. 2 weeks earlier and this place would be rammed.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Leave have won or Curtice is miles out.

    Curtice is miles out, UKIP won 14% in Newcastle Central at the general election 13% nationally, his model saying it would be a Remain landslide is farcical, it should be a truly marginal area!!
    It's not all about Ukip.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    OUT said:

    Pong getting £10 richer by the minute.

    The minute's silence won him a tenner!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,477

    That remain party place has the potential to be the worst party ever.

    The worst party ever has to be the BBC boat party of the damned in 2010
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Who is next to declare.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    I still have a feeling that the Swindon and Oxfordshires of this country will seal it for remain. It's the hope that kills you...
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Starfall said:

    I am with Richard Nabavi. We can not read too much into two very working class areas at one end of the country.

    They should only get half a vote each.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Leave have won or Curtice is miles out.

    Curtice is miles out, UKIP won 14% in Newcastle Central at the general election 13% nationally, his model saying it would be a Remain landslide is farcical, it should be a truly marginal area!!
    I salute your indefatigability sir
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,581
    Mr. L, indeed. We might be waiting for Birmingham (ETA 4am) and Leeds (ETA 5am), but if turnout's higher they may be later. Over 700,000 in the former, and half a million in the latter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    corporeal said:

    Starfall said:

    Remember there will be 110% turn out in parts of London... ;-)

    Oh God. The establishment rigging the UK to remain in the EU because of Muslim election fraud would be every swivel eyed conspiracy theory rolled into one.
    Using pencils to do so!
    For those that didn't realise...It's a joke folks...we have been doing it all day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,970
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Leave have won or Curtice is miles out.

    Curtice is miles out, UKIP won 14% in Newcastle Central at the general election 13% nationally, his model saying it would be a Remain landslide is farcical, it should be a truly marginal area!!
    Yes, but more Labour than Con for the rest of the vote. Remain should have been on 55. So, they've missed, but not by a mile.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    We just crashed the world economy!!!! Get in and fuck globalisation. :-D
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,713

    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
    We're used to being under water. Won't stop us voting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,930
    I think we can already say the phone polls have had a spanking.... 10% lead to Remain my arse!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,587
    Well the £ is now dropping fast and it looks like we are in for a contest, at the very least...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    OUT said:

    Pong getting £10 richer by the minute.

    The minute's silence won him a tenner!
    I'll donate that minute to Oxfam.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chameleon said:

    I still have a feeling that the Swindon and Oxfordshires of this country will seal it for remain. It's the hope that kills you...

    Swindon? Swindon is white van man country isn't it, a bit different from Oxfordshire.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,780

    Surprised Curtice can't work out 20% of 45

    Poor all round.

    He had already told Dimbleby 20% - which was the figure that mattered - and Dimbleby hadn't digested that.

    And Dimbleby said how many postal votes - so answer not 9m anyway - Curtice may have been mentally trying to work out number of postal votes which would be about 7.5m.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Who is next to declare.

    Sunderland probably.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
    All my family in Essex made it and all voted out.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    That remain party place has the potential to be the worst party ever.

    The worst party ever has to be the BBC boat party of the damned in 2010
    That was just 6yrs ago - it was horrific. It was so 80s.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Hard choice, stick with Leave and win £700 or hedge and win £150 whatever the result is Decisions, decisions.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    Chameleon said:

    I still have a feeling that the Swindon and Oxfordshires of this country will seal it for remain. It's the hope that kills you...

    Come on the shires....If you vote In, I promise I'll vote Tory for two elections....

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,970
    My SpreadEx account is looking very healthy :)
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918

    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
    We're used to being under water. Won't stop us voting.
    Glad to hear it Essex!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,303

    I think we can already say the phone polls have had a spanking.... 10% lead to Remain my arse!!

    GE2015 all over again??
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    Who is next to declare.

    Sunderland probably.
    Come on Sunderland. Uneasy calm right now on the markets.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    I still have a feeling that the Swindon and Oxfordshires of this country will seal it for remain. It's the hope that kills you...

    Come on the shires....If you vote In, I promise I'll vote Tory for two elections....

    Parish council elections don't count ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    Chameleon said:

    I still have a feeling that the Swindon and Oxfordshires of this country will seal it for remain. It's the hope that kills you...

    The British in general are very conservative with a small c...it's why I believe miliband got smashed in middle.england. They might not like Tories / Cameron, left wing ed + SNP sound a bit risky.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,446
    Farage's speech shows why UKIP is a misnomer. He cares more about destroying the EU than about the UK.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,415

    surbiton said:

    London weather and floods may turn out to be crucial

    Problem for Leave is Essex got hit bad.
    We're used to being under water. Won't stop us voting.
    And leavers walk on it anyway.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Just wait for the Sunderland result. If it is 60-40 as rumours have it, Betfair is going to go mad.

    *chuckles evilly*
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Lowlander said:

    Hard choice, stick with Leave and win £700 or hedge and win £150 whatever the result is Decisions, decisions.

    I've cancelled my long-standing hedge at 2.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Lowlander said:

    Sky have moved Kay Burley from the Remain party to the Leave party.

    I suggest that is quite important. Audibly more noise at the Leave party.

    she said at start of programme she will be moving from one to the other all night
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    What does that Clacks result mean Lowlander?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    I still have a feeling that the Swindon and Oxfordshires of this country will seal it for remain. It's the hope that kills you...

    Come on the shires....If you vote In, I promise I'll vote Tory for two elections....

    Well, Broxbourne (true blue Tory area) is apparently a Leave win, according to Kuenssberg....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    58/42 in scotland region there
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Just wait for the Sunderland result. If it is 60-40 as rumours have it, Betfair is going to go mad.

    *chuckles evilly*

    I'm VERY wary of rumours. I want to see results.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,641
    Clackmannanshire 58:42
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813
    edited June 2016
    Clackmannshire Remain 58% Leave 42%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mortimer said:

    What does that Clacks result mean Lowlander?

    Clackmannanshire was pretty close to the nationwide average in Indyref.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Laura, you tease. Broxtowe!
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739

    Surprised Curtice can't work out 20% of 45

    It was an unfair question because we don't know the postal vote turnout. For example, 75% turnout x 20% x 45m.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,970
    Mortimer said:

    What does that Clacks result mean Lowlander?

    Scotland is supposed to be 60:40 for Remain overall, so far I'd reckon (given Glasgow and Edinburgh still to come), I'd reckon it's looking like it'll be pretty close to that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,265
    Clackmannanshire not exactly knocking it out the park for Remain either (58:42)
  • Just wait for the Sunderland result. If it is 60-40 as rumours have it, Betfair is going to go mad.

    *chuckles evilly*

    Already priced in it seems.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tlg86 said:

    Clackmannanshire 58:42

    better for Leave...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,303
    Clackmannan 58/42 REMAIN
  • Come on sunderland I want to go to bed
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Where was Clackmananshire leave on the spreadsheet for 50/50. 42.2% by my reckoning. If Scotland only 58:42 that would be good for leave if Clackmananshire representative of Scotland.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    Just wait for the Sunderland result. If it is 60-40 as rumours have it, Betfair is going to go mad.

    *chuckles evilly*

    So will sterling.

    I desperately want Remain to win now. Yet I feel a frisson of excitement that it may not!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,930
    Sunderland:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    tlg86 said:

    Clackmannanshire 58:42

    Wonder what was Par there
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,204
    It would be nice to see a Tory voting area lean Leavish.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    Sunderland incoming!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Leave have won or Curtice is miles out.

    Curtice is miles out, UKIP won 14% in Newcastle Central at the general election 13% nationally, his model saying it would be a Remain landslide is farcical, it should be a truly marginal area!!
    Yes, but more Labour than Con for the rest of the vote. Remain should have been on 55. So, they've missed, but not by a mile.

    So what, Wandsworth has a Tory MP in Putney but UKIP got only 5% there in the general election so it will comfortably vote Remain
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    What does that Clacks result mean Lowlander?

    Scotland is supposed to be 60:40 for Remain overall, so far I'd reckon (given Glasgow and Edinburgh still to come), I'd reckon it's looking like it'll be pretty close to that.
    But on a low turnout...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    BLOODY HELL!!!!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Leave by 30k in Sunderland.
This discussion has been closed.