Winchester: two Remain posters, one Leave poster. A couple of Quakers campaigning on the high street claiming William Penn wanted a European Parliament. Not much business. Saw a couple of rather introverted BSE campaigners in their 40s in a side-street not doing much at all, other than being glued to their iPhones. They then went to the pub, ordered a drink, and then resumed reading their iPhones. Otherwise, nothing on the referendum going on noticeably at all.
I was there with my folks. Aged 70/75. They, their friends, and everyone they know in their social circle is voting Leave. They live in rural North-West Hampshire.
Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.
Casino - I think what you're saying is that there has been little or no movement at all in your experience over the past 2-3 days and that has been my impression too. The betting markets have moved marginally towards REMAIN but have been steady these last 24 hours. It has been suggested on this thread that LEAVE's level of support since the atrocity 3 days ago has dropped from around 50% to 40% or less. Quite frankly that is simply absurd drivel by any standard as the next series of polls will demonstrate.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened firecountry as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
It is not a good thing if this changes any votes.
Not at all.
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Yes, I think that's true.
Less charitably, people vote for stupid reasons all the time, all of us at one time or another, and that's democracy for you.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
"A bit longer"?? As in "another 40 years before we get a second vote"?
If REMAIN wins, following this scare, the chances of our getting a new vote any time soon are surely close to zero. Or less.
I used to believe there would possibly be a swift revote. Now I think the powers-that-be would do ANYTHING to avoid it.
The only way there'll be a second vote in the near future is with a leave vote. My guess is that we will be asked to 'reconsider' in the light of a further negotiation, or be given a choice between alternative choices for Brexit and remaining, on the grounds that the first vote wasn't specific enough.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably where we were at pre-campaign. The reason it has been a passionate debate is because it really means something, this one, and I genuinely fear for the good of my country as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
I am afraid, sir, that you & your colleagues are misinterpreting the shot across the bows. If it has any relevance, it is a harbinger of what the future would be like under Remain.
If we vote Leave, there is a chance of dealing with this sort of ... infection?
If we vote Remain, it will be swept under the carpet and ignored. Perhaps a better analogy might be the way the fire at King's Cross started - out of sight, until too late.
So, let me get this right...if we vote leave, then that'll sort out the English hooligan problem, the EDL, the BNP, Farage's populism, bigotry, racist targeting of immigrants, the hateful Murdoch and Dacre press... a vote leave will sort all that out. I'm convinced......
I offered "a chance of dealing with" vs "swept under the carpet".
Of course you're not convinced, you've made up your mind. I'm not trying to convince you. Enjoy your vote.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably where we were at pre-campaign. The reason it has been a passionate debate is because it really means something, this one, and I genuinely fear for the good of my country as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
I am afraid, sir, that you & your colleagues are misinterpreting the shot across the bows. If it has any relevance, it is a harbinger of what the future would be like under Remain.
If we vote Leave, there is a chance of dealing with this sort of ... infection?
If we vote Remain, it will be swept under the carpet and ignored. Perhaps a better analogy might be the way the fire at King's Cross started - out of sight, until too late.
So, let me get this right...if we vote leave, then that'll sort out the English hooligan problem, the EDL, the BNP, Farage's populism, bigotry, racist targeting of immigrants, the hateful Murdoch and Dacre press... a vote leave will sort all that out. I'm convinced......
To be honest, the hornets nest that has been kicked is going to cause a lot of people to be stung whether Leave or Remain. I would prefer not to have the kicker in charge afterwards.
Like you I am on Leave for betting purposes, but will be very happy to lose the bet. It would restore my faith in the great British public.
Snap - voting remain but betting position is on leave - that's where all the value is on a 50/50 call.
What impact do we think recent events will have on turnout? 3 days with minimal campaigning, rallies and canvassing cancelled. Just saw the headlines on BBC news - Jo Cox's family's statement, the trial, Tim Peake and England beating Australia at Rugby. Not sure I heard the referendum mentioned?
NONE if the election is now, tomorrow or next week the result will be the same. All the bollocks that can be spouted has been spouted.
Only a mass terrorism incident, a blackswan or Cameron found and caught on camera shagging a shetland pony could change anything.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably where we were at pre-campaign. The reason it has been a passionate debate is because it really means something, this one, and I genuinely fear for the good of my country as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
It is not a good thing if this changes any votes.
Not at all.
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Yes, I think that's true.
Less charitably, people vote for stupid reasons all the time, all of us at one time or another, and that's democracy for you.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
We won't Leave on 24th June. I suspect a lot of Leavers may well have changed their minds by the start of next year. I wouldn't rule out our invocation of Article 50 being revoked.
"Britain decided to cleave as closely as possible to the US so as never to be humiliated again."
That's like thinking that by clenching your ****, you'll only get ******ed halfway.
Britain was humiliated in Suez because
a) the venture was okayed by a loony Old Etonian government (the British role in India, Greece, Egypt and Palestine was by then OVER - and before anyone responds, yes I do know that there were divisions over Suez at Eton), and
b) the US was keen on doing the humiliating.
And what's this about "Franco-British"? Sixty years on, is it still too early to admit that there was "collusion" by the two European powers that attacked Egypt with the third power which was also at war with Egypt, Israel?
People in 50 years' time will look back and realise that next week's referendum was the wrong one. There should be a referendum on NATO membership and the "special relationship" with the US. That issue could have been solved properly - meaning don't subordinate Britain to the US. But we the people were never asked.
The ruling caste issue could have been solved too - abolish the private schools and the college systems at Oxford and Cambridge. That would have been part of the same package as sorting out the BBC, judiciary, civil service and indeed the City of London and the monarchy. The hell with "royal commissions". Get in there and impose social democratic reform. Unfortunately, well look at the backgrounds of Gaitskell and Crossman.
Then the issue of British relations with the rest of our continent, AND the issue of braying posh "donkeys" sending British troops to attack countries in southern Asia in wars that as well as being utterly criminal are also totally unwinnable (Iraq and Afghanistan were lost, okay?) would practically solve themselves.
If Iraq hadn't been attacked, there wouldn't be five million new Arab refugees.
It's too late now.
Britain is run like shit. There is no solution. And while the chattering classes debate whether or not to follow the Swiss (money-laundering) or Norwegian (whatever you do, don't invest oil money internally) model, few strategic thinkers at RUSI or Chatham House envisage that a nuclear war between NATO and Russia will be avoided.
Roger Scruton Quotes @Scruton_Quotes "A political culture in denial about a serious social problem will condemn those who seek to discuss it, and try its best to silence them"
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened firecountry as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
It is not a good thing if this changes any votes.
Not at all.
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Yes, I think that's true.
Less charitably, people vote for stupid reasons all the time, all of us at one time or another, and that's democracy for you.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
"A bit longer"?? As in "another 40 years before we get a second vote"?
If REMAIN wins, following this scare, the chances of our getting a new vote any time soon are surely close to zero. Or less.
I used to believe there would possibly be a swift revote. Now I think the powers-that-be would do ANYTHING to avoid it.
The only way there'll be a second vote in the near future is with a leave vote. My guess is that we will be asked to 'reconsider' in the light of a further negotiation, or be given a choice between alternative choices for Brexit and remaining, on the grounds that the first vote wasn't specific enough.
I think there's every chance we may change our own minds.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably where we were at pre-campaign. The reason it has been a passionate debate is because it really means something, this one, and I genuinely fear for the good of my country as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will.
It is not a good thing if this changes any votes.
Not at all.
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Yes, I think that's true.
Less charitably, people vote for stupid reasons all the time, all of us at one time or another, and that's democracy for you.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
What makes you say so? That is quite the opposite of the EU's track record.
Calling a further referendum is a perogative of our parliament, not Brussels. If there is an electoral demand for a second vote (say after another Treaty) then it will happen.
Roger Scruton Quotes @Scruton_Quotes "A political culture in denial about a serious social problem will condemn those who seek to discuss it, and try its best to silence them"
Two more #EUref polls tonight: a YouGov for the Sunday Times, and a... YouGov for Good Morning Britain. 14 retweets 6 likes Britain Elects @britainelects 14m14 minutes ago
Oh, and a Survation phone poll for the Mail on Sunday.
You could also ask: "If Leave wins now,the question I have is where the immigration issue then goes." It's not clear.
And that would be a bigger question, given many of the prominent Leavers want free movement.
And they will be held to account at a General Election for whatever they agree. Isn't democracy great? Who could oppose that?
Genuine question to Remainers and indeed some Leavers on the site who want free movement.Do you actually care if this country's population grows to 80 million or more in your lifetime ? I just cannot understand why anyone would want that but it seems to me you aren't worried about it.
Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.
This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
I have a feeling that the main effect of this weeks dreadful events will be to depress turnout.
Dont knows will just decide I dont know, whatever will be will be and stay at home
You could be right, certainly interest in the referendum generally seems to have lessened over these past 3 days, but that is probably because the principal political figures have withdrawn from the fray.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably ng - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
It is not a good thing if this changes any votes.
Not at all.
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
We won't Leave on 24th June. I suspect a lot of Leavers may well have changed their minds by the start of next year. I wouldn't rule out our invocation of Article 50 being revoked.
Once it's invoked it can't be revoked. I am pretty sure that's that, when we push the button.
What I don't rule out is a classic EU fudge, and a sudden amazing offer of a better deal. They really are petrified the euro will fall apart if we pull the plug. With good reason.
I see a tremendous battle of wills between Merkel and Hollande (which will last for about a nanosecond). The French will be delighted to see (in their view) Britain cutting its diplomatic bollocks off. It's all down to how much Frau Merkel loves us.
Roger Scruton Quotes @Scruton_Quotes "A political culture in denial about a serious social problem will condemn those who seek to discuss it, and try its best to silence them"
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Yes, I think that's true.
Less charitably, people vote for stupid reasons all the time, all of us at one time or another, and that's democracy for you.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
What makes you say so? That is quite the opposite of the EU's track record.
Calling a further referendum is a perogative of our parliament, not Brussels. If there is an electoral demand for a second vote (say after another Treaty) then it will happen.
So which party do you see offering another referendum if this one is won by Remain?
All the parties are in favour of remaining. Two of them were against offering a referendum on the principle of Just-In-Case. Now they know there's a strong anti-EU feeling in the country, are they going to risk it again?
What is much more likely is that the extremists on one wing or the other will latch onto what the mainstream parties ignore, and eventually will grow to such proportions that their repugnant agendas get swept into power on the back of a single issue.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably ng - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
It is not a good thing if this changes any votes.
Not at all.
People decide how they vote with a mixture of rational and irrational motives. That's democracy.
NickP has remarked in the past how many voters, even a majority, make their decision because of the general feel of a party. I think that is true here too.
Most of the time a floating voter knows they can change their mind next time. What sets this referendum aside is that there is no next time.
There could be a second chance with Remain (indeed quite likely like a second indy ref) but will not happen if we Leave.
Undecideds should vote Remain if they want a bit longer to think it over.
We won't Leave on 24th June. I suspect a lot of Leavers may well have changed their minds by the start of next year. I wouldn't rule out our invocation of Article 50 being revoked.
Once it's invoked it can't be revoked. I am pretty sure that's that, when we push the button.
What I don't rule out is a classic EU fudge, and a sudden amazing offer of a better deal. They really are petrified the euro will fall apart if we pull the plug. With good reason.
I see a tremendous battle of wills between Merkel and Hollande (which will last for about a nanosecond). The French will be delighted to see (in their view) Britain cutting its diplomatic bollocks off. It's all down to how much Frau Merkel loves us.
Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.
This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.
I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
Bear in mind the under 45s will likely go Remain once the undecideds have voted, maybe the under 55s too plus the middle class will be strongly Remain, nothing is nailed on at all
Winchester: two Remain posters, one Leave poster. A couple of Quakers campaigning on the high street claiming William Penn wanted a European Parliament. Not much business. Saw a couple of rather introverted BSE campaigners in their 40s in a side-street not doing much at all, other than being glued to their iPhones. They then went to the pub, ordered a drink, and then resumed reading their iPhones. Otherwise, nothing on the referendum going on noticeably at all.
I was there with my folks. Aged 70/75. They, their friends, and everyone they know in their social circle is voting Leave. They live in rural North-West Hampshire.
Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.
Casino - I think what you're saying is that there has been little or no movement at all in your experience over the past 2-3 days and that has been my impression too. The betting markets have moved marginally towards REMAIN but have been steady these last 24 hours. It has been suggested on this thread that LEAVE's level of support since the atrocity 3 days ago has dropped from around 50% to 40% or less. Quite frankly that is simply absurd drivel by any standard as the next series of polls will demonstrate.
I'd say the only change is that Remainers have woken up, and are engaged. That may drive up their turnout. There must be a two-three fold increase in activity compared to a week ago.
People in 50 years' time will look back and realise that next week's referendum was the wrong one. There should be a referendum on NATO membership and the "special relationship" with the US. That issue could have been solved properly - meaning don't subordinate Britain to the US. But we the people were never asked.
A referendum on NATO would give a result which would leave the Remain side salivating.
If that is chart is close to accurate on proportions, you are quite right.
How on earth are Opinium showing a it neck and neck when only 18-34 year olds are in favour, there new methodology looks a bit dodgy now, no way will Remain win with only 18-34 year old they just will not vote anywhere near enogh
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
Except that... The Sun has never backed a losing national vote in 30 years. And they've gone for LEAVE
Sorry to freak you out further.
But is this true about 2015? IIRC Cameron and Miliband were both hovering around 2 on next PM.
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
I'm likely wrong as you say. But I'll offer you this to think about.
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
Except that... The Sun has never backed a losing national vote in 30 years. And they've gone for LEAVE
If that is chart is close to accurate on proportions, you are quite right.
How on earth are Opinium showing a it neck and neck when only 18-34 year olds are in favour, there new methodology looks a bit dodgy now, no way will Remain win with only 18-34 year old they just will not vote anywhere near enogh
Those figures are a lot closer in the older age groups than they used to be as I recall.
People in 50 years' time will look back and realise that next week's referendum was the wrong one. There should be a referendum on NATO membership and the "special relationship" with the US. That issue could have been solved properly - meaning don't subordinate Britain to the US. But we the people were never asked.
A referendum on NATO would give a result which would leave the Remain side salivating.
It would be amusing to see some of the same same Brexiters who've been fear-mongering about Turkish EU membership trying to convince us why we should be prepared to go to war with Russia to defend them.
It depends on the area who keeps quiet. I've been in both Surrey and West Yorkshire over the last month. Whilst I feel comfortable speaking about wanting to remain in Surrey I've been scared enough by the atmosphere up here to keep it zipped. I'm barely a few miles away from the site of the murder and random people snarling about immigrants and benefits and getting control back was prevalent, maybe a bit calmer now though.
Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.
This is why you get so few City types willing to declare for Leave openly. I have deactivated my account until after the referendum because I just get endless Remain propaganda from a few of my colleagues. I've begun to think that the people who are keeping quiet are going to vote for Leave and there are more people just keeping their heads down and keeping quiet despite management pressure to vote Remain.
Thanks. One of my friends was so aggressive, hysterical and rude - failing to engage with any of my points, just ranting at me - that I'm now not sure what to do.
I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
Do what I did, just deactivate and sit back. Better to spend the time campaigning with people that can be won over. You'd be surprised as to how many City employees can be won over with the facts:
1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.
2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.
3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.
4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably where we were at pre-campaign. The reason it has been a passionate debate is because it really means something, this one, and I genuinely fear for the good of my country as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
Public sector workers reluctant to say Leave ?
I'm amazed they ever admitted to it to start with.
The public sector is a hotbed of europhilia.
It isin't but is definetly taboo to say Leave, in public sector as in many other professional dominated workplaces.
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
Except that... The Sun has never backed a losing national vote in 30 years. And they've gone for LEAVE
Sorry to freak you out further.
If leave win, I stand to win several thousand- I've cashed in all my current political bets and put them full square on Brexit, plus my foreign assets will grow significantly.
OK- so the tens of millions of punters cash backing remain versus Murdoch's narcissism combined with Southam Observers obsessive repeating of I was right all along....I know which side I'm on.
As a thriller writer, if I presented Mair to my editor as a plot device, she'd laugh in my face and tell me stop being so cliched, far fetched and unbelievable. She'd also say the plot twist was far too neat and convenient
I'll be cliched....but the truth is stranger than fiction. My wife still cannot believe my family history which just seems utterly preposterous.
Are you venturing into Tuscany on your Italian odyssey?
No, just Calabria. Which is scruffy, ugly, gangstery and poor, yet studded with occasional sublime gems. Like the hotel I'm in. I've stayed in a few nice hotels, in my time, as I may have mentioned, but the Praia Art Resort is up there with the best of them. World class.
The food is indescribably good. We have our own private slice of Ionian Sea. Here I am right now, writing this comment
It's the light that is breathtaking in Italy. Roger told me that about the light he remembered over the Ponte Vecchio in Florence, reminiscing about the past.
I have had the most spectacular lunch today overlooking Florence and the Apennines.. Italy is just too beautiful. Italians live for food. They dream about food. And their food is based on simplicity and local ingredients. It is not fussy. I shared an 8 Euro bottle of house white today...I feel I have to stas on your Primrose Hill Residence)...it was just fine. I wouldn't have noticed the difference with my usual choice.
I had one of the very best dishes of my entire life last night, here in the hotel. The chef is a genius.
It was ostensibly simple, taglialini with fat prawns and lots of Sila black truffle. But everything had been done with meticulous care and first class ingredients, right down to the type and age of French butter they used for the pasta (the chef explained it to me).
Brilliant. Also bloody expensive (especially for Calabria). But I wasn't paying. Forza Italia!!
Seafood pasta...divine. I'm a veggie, but I eat seafood. I had a scampi linguine in a unremarkable restaurant outside Piombino 4 years ago. I still dream about it, undoubtedly the most exquisite culinary experience of my life.
How much was your plate of pasta?
If you eat seafood, you are not a vegetarian!
I count prawns, scampi and mussels and wotnot as floating mushrooms. I would eat insects too.
But they are animals.
Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
You need to look at the class splits and then remember which class generally turns out to vote.
I'd like to point out, Zac Goldsmith led the over 65s by 30% and still lost.
He lost in LONDON
also is TSE saying the ABC1's turned out to vote for Labour instead of Tory so much that they out did the huge lead amongst the old? I don't think so even in London the rich lean tory, Labour won because it's London. Look at the shares of the vote for the mayoral contest and they were almost the same as the GE.
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
Except that... The Sun has never backed a losing national vote in 30 years. And they've gone for LEAVE
You need to look at the class splits and then remember which class generally turns out to vote.
I'd like to point out, Zac Goldsmith led the over 65s by 30% and still lost.
He lost in LONDON
also is TSE saying the ABC1's turned out to vote for Labour instead of Tory so much that they out did the huge lead amongst the old? I don't think so even in London the rich lean tory, Labour won because it's London. Look at the shares of the vote for the mayoral contest and they were almost the same as the GE.
Yes the richest Londoners voted for Zac, Khan won because he won back some of the working class and lower middle class voters who voted for Boris
Winchester: two Remain posters, one Leave poster. A couple of Quakers campaigning on the high street claiming William Penn wanted a European Parliament. Not much business. Saw a couple of rather introverted BSE campaigners in their 40s in a side-street not doing much at all, other than being glued to their iPhones. They then went to the pub, ordered a drink, and then resumed reading their iPhones. Otherwise, nothing on the referendum going on noticeably at all.
I was there with my folks. Aged 70/75. They, their friends, and everyone they know in their social circle is voting Leave. They live in rural North-West Hampshire.
Facebook: absolutely filled to brim with friends gunning full-on for Remain. No sign of exploitation the murder at all. But two or three usually rational, and level-headed people, becoming highly emotional about Remain. All work in London in professional services/finance.
If that's right, it's pretty much nailed on for Leave. If.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
I posted last night...hope is a killer, I carry the scars from 1992. The betting markets tell you what is going to happen...never, never have the betting markets unanimously called the flow of direction wrong in any election, ever. The polls have in 1992 and 2015- but the betting markets haven't. Both called those elections for the Tories.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
Except that... The Sun has never backed a losing national vote in 30 years. And they've gone for LEAVE
If that is chart is close to accurate on proportions, you are quite right.
Indyref in reverse - the Over 65s led the way to No.
Remain need the youngest age bracket and they don't turn up/are at Glasto/registered in the wrong place/forgot to postal etc etc.
In Scotland it was the middle class who most backed No and the working class Yes, that is reversed in EU ref too
It was pensioners that wrecked it though, it was expected the rich would vote NO , but it was the fear campaign that scared the greedy pensioners into thinking they would lose a fiver a week and made them selfishly vote for their own pockets rather than the future.
The referendum was over the moment this lunatic opened fire. As already said, the first vote on the EU in 40 years and it's been completely hijacked by a disturbed loner. It's really, really sad. I never thought Leave had a chance until the past fortnight, but the polls tonight will show the closing of the gap has been reversed and I expect a 60/40 split on polling day, maybe even 65/35, which is probably where we were at pre-campaign. The reason it has been a passionate debate is because it really means something, this one, and I genuinely fear for the good of my country as we move further and further into a ruinous relationship with the EU disaster. For a moment the door to sovereignty and a renewed confidence in Britain as a global-facing - rather than just EU-facing - power stood ajar, and then it slammed shut thanks to this inexplicable act by a man who needed help.
The murder won't move even one dozen votes.
To my surprise I think it will. At work earlier a couple of previously certain Leavers had changed their mind to undecided, precisely because of the attack. It sobered them up, having been in their cups over the issues to a more clear-headed assessment of what the future would be like under Leave.
The murder of one person by another was a shot across the bow. The conversation is much less saloon bar, much more kitchen table. It has changed the tone rather than arguments.
Public sector workers reluctant to say Leave ?
I'm amazed they ever admitted to it to start with.
The public sector is a hotbed of europhilia.
It isin't but is definetly taboo to say Leave, in public sector as in many other professional dominated workplaces.
I've had a fair bit to do with the public sector over the last year. Admittedly at the more salt of the earth end. I wouldn't describe them as europhiles at all.
Roger Scruton Quotes @Scruton_Quotes "A political culture in denial about a serious social problem will condemn those who seek to discuss it, and try its best to silence them"
Don't take Scruton seriously. He got caught once offering to write paid-for articles for cigarette manufacturers, saying philosophy of freedom, blah blah.
It isin't but is definetly taboo to say Leave, in public sector as in many other professional dominated workplaces.
I've had a fair bit to do with the public sector over the last year. Admittedly at the more salt of the earth end. I wouldn't describe them as europhiles at all.
This is secondhand, but nonetheless I heard from a Leavenik activist that a couple from Bexley came in to the Vote Leave information centre where he was working and when he encouraged them to take some window posters, the lady said that Bexley Council had told them they were only allowed to display a Leave poster if they displayed a Remain one too.
This story could be complete rubbish. It strikes me as probably true, though. I have experienced some quite amazing attitudes from those who work for local councils.
It isin't but is definetly taboo to say Leave, in public sector as in many other professional dominated workplaces.
I've had a fair bit to do with the public sector over the last year. Admittedly at the more salt of the earth end. I wouldn't describe them as europhiles at all.
This is secondhand, but nonetheless I heard from a Leavenik activist that a couple from Bexley came in to the Vote Leave information centre where he was working and when he encouraged them to take some window posters, the lady said that Bexley Council had told them they were only allowed to display a Leave poster if they displayed a Remain one too.
This story could be complete rubbish. It strikes me as probably true, though. I have experienced some quite amazing attitudes from those who work for local councils.
Depends if they work in a politically restricted post if such an attitude is reasonable.
This is secondhand, but nonetheless I heard from a Leavenik activist that a couple from Bexley came in to the Vote Leave information centre where he was working and when he encouraged them to take some window posters, the lady said that Bexley Council had told them they were only allowed to display a Leave poster if they displayed a Remain one too.
This story could be complete rubbish. It strikes me as probably true, though. I have experienced some quite amazing attitudes from those who work for local councils.
Bexley has 44 Conservative councillors, 18 Labour and 3 UKIP - I checked their website. I very much doubt if this tale is accurate. Besides, even if it was 100% trendy Green-Labour all it would take is for one hardarse to call the press and all hell would break loose.
Comments
It has been suggested on this thread that LEAVE's level of support since the atrocity 3 days ago has dropped from around 50% to 40% or less. Quite frankly that is simply absurd drivel by any standard as the next series of polls will demonstrate.
Of course you're not convinced, you've made up your mind. I'm not trying to convince you. Enjoy your vote.
I'd like to point out, Zac Goldsmith led the over 65s by 30% and still lost.
if the election is now, tomorrow or next week the result will be the same. All the bollocks that can be spouted has been spouted.
Only a mass terrorism incident, a blackswan or Cameron found and caught on camera shagging a shetland pony could change anything.
And i think the last one is ths most likely.
That's like thinking that by clenching your ****, you'll only get ******ed halfway.
Britain was humiliated in Suez because
a) the venture was okayed by a loony Old Etonian government (the British role in India, Greece, Egypt and Palestine was by then OVER - and before anyone responds, yes I do know that there were divisions over Suez at Eton), and
b) the US was keen on doing the humiliating.
And what's this about "Franco-British"? Sixty years on, is it still too early to admit that there was "collusion" by the two European powers that attacked Egypt with the third power which was also at war with Egypt, Israel?
People in 50 years' time will look back and realise that next week's referendum was the wrong one. There should be a referendum on NATO membership and the "special relationship" with the US. That issue could have been solved properly - meaning don't subordinate Britain to the US. But we the people were never asked.
The ruling caste issue could have been solved too - abolish the private schools and the college systems at Oxford and Cambridge. That would have been part of the same package as sorting out the BBC, judiciary, civil service and indeed the City of London and the monarchy. The hell with "royal commissions". Get in there and impose social democratic reform. Unfortunately, well look at the backgrounds of Gaitskell and Crossman.
Then the issue of British relations with the rest of our continent, AND the issue of braying posh "donkeys" sending British troops to attack countries in southern Asia in wars that as well as being utterly criminal are also totally unwinnable (Iraq and Afghanistan were lost, okay?) would practically solve themselves.
If Iraq hadn't been attacked, there wouldn't be five million new Arab refugees.
It's too late now.
Britain is run like shit. There is no solution. And while the chattering classes debate whether or not to follow the Swiss (money-laundering) or Norwegian (whatever you do, don't invest oil money internally) model, few strategic thinkers at RUSI or Chatham House envisage that a nuclear war between NATO and Russia will be avoided.
The postal vote was at 27% across all groups, but most prominent among pensioners and DE's, where it ran at close to a third.
Roger Scruton Quotes @Scruton_Quotes
"A political culture in denial about a serious social problem will condemn those who seek to discuss it, and try its best to silence them"
Remain need the youngest age bracket and they don't turn up/are at Glasto/registered in the wrong place/forgot to postal etc etc.
Two more #EUref polls tonight: a YouGov for the Sunday Times, and a... YouGov for Good Morning Britain.
14 retweets 6 likes
Britain Elects @britainelects 14m14 minutes ago
Oh, and a Survation phone poll for the Mail on Sunday.
Dont knows will just decide I dont know, whatever will be will be and stay at home
SouthamObserver - I think there's every chance we may change our own minds.
I agree, but I would apply that to both possible outcomes unfortunately.
*Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you*
All the parties are in favour of remaining. Two of them were against offering a referendum on the principle of Just-In-Case. Now they know there's a strong anti-EU feeling in the country, are they going to risk it again?
What is much more likely is that the extremists on one wing or the other will latch onto what the mainstream parties ignore, and eventually will grow to such proportions that their repugnant agendas get swept into power on the back of a single issue.
Depends whose buttons you want to press.
For AlistairMeeks, type vapid bilge (or "vapid bilge") repeatedly.
For trolling TSE, question his authenticity as a Yorkshireman.
For trolling Morris_Dancer, use the phrase "dey took err jerrbs" in relation to the LEAVE campaign.
Hope that helps you get a trollface!
I think i'll ignore him. Not sure there's any good to come from engagement.
The betting markets are still calling it for remain next week. Betfair by 2-1 with almost 40 million staked. At this moment in time, unless there is crossover, it is unthinkable that leave will win.
But, all virtually my friends are AB graduates.
But is this true about 2015? IIRC Cameron and Miliband were both hovering around 2 on next PM.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/744235684999860224
1. If we lose passporting rights the trade doesn't disappear, our market just becomes deregulated and the BoE will stand behind EUR trading.
2. The ECB, Bundesbank and BdF are still going to be hostile to "Casino banking" while the BoE will take the same friendly approach.
3. Leaving will allow insurance companies to cast their nets towards LatAm and Asian markets, many of which are currently off limits.
4. The City will innovate. When the Fed tried to claim jurisdiction over global USD trading the City innovated and we still have huge USD trading. The idea that the ECB can regulate the City out of existence or destroy our EUR markets if we leave are a EU fantasy that they know are not close to reality.
OK- so the tens of millions of punters cash backing remain versus Murdoch's narcissism combined with Southam Observers obsessive repeating of I was right all along....I know which side I'm on.
Ergo, you are NOT a vegetarian, and that makes ME the only vegetarian in the PB village!
This story could be complete rubbish. It strikes me as probably true, though. I have experienced some quite amazing attitudes from those who work for local councils.