"According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave."
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
What is astounding is that you actually find people who believe there will be forced deportations. Even those who are strongly Remain are not that idiotic that they believe that will happen.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
I think you will find that such peoplr rather enjoy saying such outrageous right wing things becsuae it is so frowned upon by society. I recall a conversation involving air raids over Scotpand if Brown didnt resign the day after GE 2010. If there is someone progressive that they can scandalise then that just encourages them.
Most of them dont for a minute actually support being quite so extreme - they will vote Brexit though.
As I said the people in my office are old, middle class, steady, normal people. They do not follow politics, keep their opinions to themselves, just normal British people. Clearly migration has had a massive impact on their thoughts and they truely believe that Brexit will resolve these issues. they are so enthused, they will definitely vote.
What is astounding is that you actually find people who believe there will be forced deportations. Even those who are strongly Remain are not that idiotic that they believe that will happen.
For 50 years the media (especially the BBC) has portrayed all political views to the right of centre or unacceptable social attitudes as belonging to or emanating from the Daily Mail reading middle classes. It must be crushing their souls to realize that the powerhouse of Brexit is working class.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
Eastleigh has one of the most eurosceptic groups of voters. Central town wards have the working class that used to have jobs at Fords, Pirelli and the Railway works. All gone.
The last ORB PHONE poll definitely had Remain +12 (52-40)
Certain to vote it had Remain +1.
The last FOUR ORB polls were all PHONE.
The last ORB online poll was 27-29 April and had Leave +2.
So I guess we should be a bit cautious - we need an ORB phone and other phone polls.
Indeed, the Evening Standard this week had almost 60% of London voters backing Remain, it is going to the wire and Leave can clearly win but this looks like a rogue to me
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 5m5 minutes ago That ORB poll is bonkers. If Leave is 12% ahead in London I'll streak naked round Boris Johnson's living room.
Probably is, but was he saying it's bonkers when Remain were c.20% ahead?
The remain camp were relying on ethnic minorities winning it for Remain. In my experience in London they cannot rely on them. Still think Leave are ahead in London but not by much but the direction of travel is important. Also important not to read anything into subsamples.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
Eastleigh has one of the most eurosceptic groups of voters. Central town wards have the working class that used to have jobs at Fords, Pirelli and the Railway works. All gone.
You are aware that Eastleigh Council is the strongest Lib Dem Council in the Country, it will always be Lib Dem.
"According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave."
Yes, the early reports of over 70% Labour support for Remain were always a bit iffy, I think at least 40% of Labour supporters will support Leave, probably more. The idea that Labour are now exclusively a party for trendy types who live in Islington is going to be dispelled in two weeks, whatever the final result.
Is there something afoot in the referendum? I've just been on Oddschecker and Leave has shortened right across the board, blue with every single bookmaker!
My Greek friend is very keen for a Brexit btw - he thinks it could be the domino that topples the whole EU...
There's a somewhat optimistic scenario where Brexit causes some real soul searching in Paris/Berlin and lets them set a new agenda for the EZ - which could benefit everyone.
Is there something afoot in the referendum? I've just been on Oddschecker and Leave has shortened right across the board, blue with every single bookmaker!
I've not come across any overseas investors (in my case mostly Americans) who would do anything but invest less in the UK if we leave the EU. This is not a trivial matter.
"I don't think it is a big problem for me whether the UK is in the EU or not. It is a problem between the UK and Europe. The UK is relatively independent in the EU at present. It does not use the euro."
Could this be like the rogue poll in indyref which led to the vow? Imminent concessions from the EU??
Possible. Time is running out. 11 days to agree something and then announce the day before. A deal that has to be done without brit civil servants working on it.
"What is astounding is that you actually find people who believe there will be forced deportations. Even those who are strongly Remain are not that idiotic that they believe that will happen"
Well all I have to do is come to work.
I suspect they are just rather enjoying teasing you by saying very authoritarian rigbt wing things is very naughty and enormous fun if you can scandalise someone naive or progressive.
Solving traffic congestion by banning women from driving or making benefit recipients work for tbeir benefits by cutting vegetation on road verges with nail scissors and so forth.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
Do you really believe immigration will reduce substantialy after Brexit? Genuine question, as you seem strong on plausible facts and numbers.
For my part I can envisage two post-Brexit EU settlements. The first is a minimal trade deal with no freedom of movement. Non-EU immigration status as it is with a reduction in EU immigration of a third, leading to an overall reduction of 15%. Finger in the air probability of this scenario I put at 25%. The second is EEA with freedom of movement and no change in immigration policy; finger in air probability 75%. Barring reductions in immigration due to post-Brexit recession and higher unemployment
"According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave."
I've been SAYING it would a damn sight closer to 50:50 for 2015 Labour voters than 75:25, haven't I? Eh? Haven't I?
With the same negotiating acumen he showed during the "renegotiation", Cameron has to rely on Labour voters being nice to him. But they have got a free hit on the Toffs' chins. If it goes tits up after Brexit, the Tories get kicked out. Whether or not it does go tits up, then it was a free kick to the Euocrats' goolies. What's not to love?
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
Eastleigh has one of the most eurosceptic groups of voters. Central town wards have the working class that used to have jobs at Fords, Pirelli and the Railway works. All gone.
You are aware that Eastleigh Council is the strongest Lib Dem Council in the Country, it will always be Lib Dem.
Due to using councillors that just work on getting re-elected and most not employed elsewhere except in political work. The eurosceptic numbers refer to a postal vote on the EU conducted a few years ago.
If Leave win London by 10 points then it won't be a landslide, it'll be as one-sided as a drive-by with a Death Star.
I have a feeling that at some point you may have just done a sneaky drive-by with a Death Star?
I expect that Herr Juncker will telepath with the Vogons about a hyperspace-bypass through England. Of course Fuhrer Juncker knows nothing about Vogon poetry (let alone efficiency)....
Been out most of the day but was that story true about Angela Eagle storming off?
I'll say one thing, although politics is pretty grim at the moment, new reputations are being forged (i.e. Andrea Leadsom) and others who were expected to "shine" are not stepping up to the plate.
Does anyone think that the next conservative leadership contest could be between Andrea Leadsom, Amber Rudd and Theresa May?
If Leave win and immigration is not reduced what will happen to the Politicians who have based their whole campaign on bringing down immigration through a Leave vote. Are we absolutely sure that immigration will be massively reduced through Brexit. The "Leavers" in my office are basing their reasoning for voting leave on not only immigration being reduced but on the mass forced deportation of non british people. The term "we have got to get them out" is used all the time. I do not know how wide this belief if but if a Brexit just involves tinkering round the edges and not something dramatic as hundreds of thousands of non-british citizens leaving the UK then some of the people in my office are going to be massively disappointed. If this view is replicated throughout the UK it could get interesting.
One of the biggest contrasts between Remain and Leave voters in the Yougov was in immigration. 90% of Leavers were sure that Leave would cut it drastically, while 60% of Remainers thought that it would make little difference, including me. The figures are from memory but ring true.
The failure of the Conservatives to control non-EU immigration, 2015 was 277 000 gross, 188 000 net, a much bigger issue.
There is a reasonable prospect of many EU migrants moving back, as they are middle income countries in the main, and with functioning economies and civil peace (excluding Greece), and indeed Brits may well well migrate there. Spain Italy Portugal and Greece in particular but not exclusively. Non -EU migrants generally come from much lower income countries and are much more likely to settle permenantly and never return, while bringing over family members as soon as they can. These are places that few if any Brits would migrate to - Pakistan, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria etc.
There are many other reasons to be concerned about non-EU migration particularly from communities that do not integrate over generations. The fact that the government has had near zero impact on it suggests to me that it is not easily fixed.
How much "Non-EU" immigration is constrained by various European legislation around human rights, right to family life, inability to deport overstayers and even criminals
Deportations?
Why does no one think of that as a way of clearing out the migrants?
Perhaps you work with currystar.
(Edit - Actually I think it was Paul_Bedfordshire that has workmates discussing deportation, sorry currystar)
Comments
Got a book coming my way. Can I have it sent by Fox.com (c.o. William O'Reilly)?
"According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave."
Or not. Mwahaha.
If Leave win London by 10 points then it won't be a landslide, it'll be as one-sided as a drive-by with a Death Star.
What is astounding is that you actually find people who believe there will be forced deportations. Even those who are strongly Remain are not that idiotic that they believe that will happen.
Well all I have to do is come to work.
Certain to vote it had Remain +1.
The last FOUR ORB polls were all PHONE.
The last ORB online poll was 27-29 April and had Leave +2.
So I guess we should be a bit cautious - we need an ORB phone and other phone polls.
George Eaton has been prophecying everything as the doom of Corbyn since the day he was elected. It's made him look rather silly to be honest.
Leave over 47.5% @ 6/4
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.123333417
http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum?time=14#i
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31838296
Solving traffic congestion by banning women from driving or making benefit recipients work for tbeir benefits by cutting vegetation on road verges with nail scissors and so forth.
The non online equivalent of trolling.
For my part I can envisage two post-Brexit EU settlements. The first is a minimal trade deal with no freedom of movement. Non-EU immigration status as it is with a reduction in EU immigration of a third, leading to an overall reduction of 15%. Finger in the air probability of this scenario I put at 25%. The second is EEA with freedom of movement and no change in immigration policy; finger in air probability 75%. Barring reductions in immigration due to post-Brexit recession and higher unemployment
With the same negotiating acumen he showed during the "renegotiation", Cameron has to rely on Labour voters being nice to him. But they have got a free hit on the Toffs' chins. If it goes tits up after Brexit, the Tories get kicked out. Whether or not it does go tits up, then it was a free kick to the Euocrats' goolies. What's not to love?
I'll say one thing, although politics is pretty grim at the moment, new reputations are being forged (i.e. Andrea Leadsom) and others who were expected to "shine" are not stepping up to the plate.
Does anyone think that the next conservative leadership contest could be between Andrea Leadsom, Amber Rudd and Theresa May?
Why does no one think of that as a way of clearing out the migrants?
Perhaps you work with currystar.
(Edit - Actually I think it was Paul_Bedfordshire that has workmates discussing deportation, sorry currystar)