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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brexit, Corbyn should be worried
When Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary says ‘The Remain campaign is facing the “very real prospect” of defeat in the referendum in two weeks’ time as it fails to reach traditional Labour voters’ it is clear the Remain campaign has issues.
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Reading the Ashcroft focus group, it seems random members of the public have their heads screwed on more tightly than politicians would like! They end up with some sort of sensible view despite being presented with two diametrically opposed, extreme ones.
Whether the result is Brexit or Bremain, Mr Corbyn still has overwhelming support from party members. How are the MPs going to overcome that, is still the question.
There are several ways Labour MPs can overcome it:
1. Get Corbyn to 'voluntarily' step down.
2. Er, that's it.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/tory-mp-who-says-leaving-eu-would-protect-wages-is-advertising-job-for-less-than-minimum-wage/
@GraemeDemianyk: Corbyn steps up efforts to keep Britain in the EU. There's now a mug https://t.co/KIwvFWiZHA
Even then it might not work, given the extent of anger.
“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.”
The German conservative’s intervention seems to rule out the “reverse Maastricht” option floated privately by some British MPs and government sources, whereby pro-remain MPs in Westminster could use their parliamentary majority to retain access to the single market after a British exit from the EU.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says
Who knew?
Nearly half a million people applied to register to vote in the 48 hours the deadline was extended - and nearly 60% of them are under 35.
What was it that Corbyn said again....
Indeed. More to do with suppressing its exchange rate by sharing it with economies fundamentally unsuited to the notion.
One of the many insights we've been given into the Labour Party of late is the total dearth of both talent and gonads among the senior members of the PLP.
Or is that sort of behaviour ok?
Considering he has been for LEAVE for 40 years they're lucky he's not out there campaigning for LEAVE and bringing over all his Corbynista disciples...
That will have to take account of the real worries about both immigration and economics. It's how they are going to manage single market membership with the immigration issue.
My guess is that this is going to be a fairness issue, making sure that the people who feel disenfranchised in the UK see that the state treats them fairly in comparison to the amount that they feel that they pay in to the system in taxation.
The posh boys think they are soooooo clever with this little extension ruse but I suspect it will make far less difference than they think it will.
So far we have had.
Voting advice leaflets showing a big pen on the Remain box.
Votes sent out to EU nationals - who are probably pro Remain
Votes lost being sent to non-EU residents entitled to vote - who are probably pro Leave.
Cameron targeting reminders on registration on the under 35s - more likely to vote Remain?
Spot the pattern?
The existing government, possibly with a new leader, who May or may not be a Leaver, or even an face we expect, will be taking Britain forward if there is a BrExit, if they have failed to make sufficient plans for that then they are negligent and deserve any kicking they get at the next GE.
Any spending on such campaigns on, say, pb would be a scandalous waste of public money.
http://youtu.be/CgYP1d5nN2o
To depose of Corbyn because of the one thing he is actually in tune with the nation over, rather than his litany of problems would make the Labour Party a complete joke.
[a vote for Brexit] "is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain”. But, he adds, “don’t automatically read risk as a bad thing”.
“It simply means there’s more uncertainty – a greater variance of possible outcomes.
“Leaving the EU risks us being left on the sidelines. A shrinking power, spurned after a bitter divorce from our neighbours, who, wanting to discourage other leavers, offer us hideous trading conditions, while the rest of the world sees us as too small to bother with.
“Or we could in the long run become a nimble low-tax, low-regulation, tiger economy. Trading unfettered with all nations across the globe, able to create our own rules and speedily reacting as a niche player to a changing world (though whether that’s good or bad depends whether you’re a Brexiteer from the political left or right).
“The likely truth is of course somewhere between the two. But most independent analysis suggests Brexit will be detrimental to the economy, and on balance I think a wobble of economic uncertainty is more likely, at least in the short to medium term. Though again, it’s about chance, so it doesn’t mean it’s definite, and of course money isn’t the sole issue.”
Remain quoted the words in bold. It was absolutely unreasonable for someone who said that he wasn't going to campaign, he didn't want to change voters minds, just to provide them with information to help them reach their own decisions.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/financial-expert-martin-lewis-will-vote-to-remain-in-eu-but-urges-voters-to-make-their-own-minds-up-a7067201.html
As I have said before, its Leave's job to procure a divorce, not suggest the next girlfriend, or comment on that relationship that persists with the ex.
Boris wants to raise the spectre of a £2bn cut in VAT on heating. Gove talks about £1bn more on science. Both want £350m/week more on the NHS. They ant to cut immigration to tens of thousands.
Those are all policies, none of which is supposedly their remit to suggest.
The fact that a post-exit government might choose to do those things (but not all of them!) is not the way it is framed.
Targeting voter registration to your preferred demographic using public money would be a complete scandal.
It's not like the Conservative Party is squeaky clean on the matter of campaign funding at the moment.
It's the lean Cons who the scare stories are getting traction with, which in retrospect shouldn't surprise as they are the ones with more to lose.
Britain Elects @britainelects 15h15 hours ago
Surrey Docks (Southwark) result:
LDEM: 51.7% (+20.1)
LAB: 21.3% (-0.3)
CON: 12.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 7.4% (-4.3)
UKIP: 6.3% (-8.9)
IND: 0.3% (+0.3)
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/10/pictures-pro-brexit-shop-owned-elderly-brothers-windows-smashed-london/
More Remain panic
#Remain has lost the plot. Has it lost the referendum? https://t.co/AQdfxqYVyD via @CapX
If it gets attacked (to be fair not very likely in my part of the world) I will take great pleasure in sending Mr Dacre some appropriate sadface pictures.
20 year 0 1/8% indexed linked gilts going for a real yield of -0.974%.
http://www.dmo.gov.uk/documentview.aspx?docName=/gilts/press/090616index.pdf
Should this be seen as good news?
Look forward to Priti Patel's referendum on the death penalty.
No slur on you, I hasten to add, weejonnie, just a pet peeve of mine. Like managers talking about holistic approaches to things.
In all seriousness I hope they do recover quickly, or UKIP can breakthrough post a referendum - a strong third party (outside of the very very strong regional one) is a good thing I think.
Pension schemes should not have to buy these return free investments, it is part of what is creating the big deficits.
Tightest odds : 45/20 - Betfair 54/20