Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?
I used to think non-voting would be Labour's biggest contribution to Leave winning. But the leadership's determination to allow this to be fought as a Tory battle has probably driven a lot of Labour voters directly into the Leave column.
This all chimes with my anecdotage. All my older relatives, entirely Old Labour WWC, are firm Leave. As for the younger ones, if you live on an estate, above a shop or in a rented flat up North and work in Tesco or on a ZHC for some factory or warehouse for the likes of Ashley or Amazon, why wouldn't you vote Leave, just to stick it to the Man, if no other reason?
I predicted a Leave win in the PB competition. I was just joking. But I am really starting to think that Leave will win. When we wake up bleary-eyed on the 24th and if Leave have won I am reminded of Arthur C. Clarke: (paraphrasing from memory) "he didn't know what to do next but was sure he would think of something".
Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?
Q: If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed? A: Yes.
In fag packet terms. Q: Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory? A: They probably need a ratio close to 3:1 split between LEAVE and REMAIN in the Labour voters on a 50% turnout for their REMAIN. If the Lab turnout for REMAIN is in the 60 percents then a 2:1 split might be enough.
In the case of Greece the roots lie in a culture of corruption that grew up out of centuries of getting round the discrimination due to being second class citizens in the Ottoman Empire.
The EU means that having got into a pickle they are unable to get out of it.
The EU (and Euro) means that having got into a pickle they have no choice but to get out of it instead of repeating the same cycle.
the theory is indeed that a good dose of mass unemployment and falling wages will force them to mend their ways. That's not a very humane doctrine.
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning.
Watch the video. It's quite explicit.
Fewer foreign sick people in your hospital.
Isn't that a legitimate concern though, that public services are having a hard time coping with increased demand due to both population growth and immigration?
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
This is what is doing for Remain.
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $42,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.
New Zealand has a GDP per capita of $37, 000 so lower than the UK and we have a higher average net worth than the U.S. because of house prices
Perhaps New Zealand should be compared to Scotland.
Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election
The problem we have now is that if the surgeon cuts a leg off by mistake we are not able to get a different surgeon tomorrow or ever and have to sit there watching him incompetently cutting more and more legs off innocent people while being applauded by influential experts for his skills.
The US is the probably the country which has more sovereignty than any other, and yet they too have experienced the same sense of powerlessness to change the direction of travel to the point that we now have the Trump phenomenon. Could it be that EU membership is not actually the root cause of this disaffection with democracy?
I agree.
Pretty much every country in the world is coming to terms with the plusses and minuses of globalisation. The changes present differently in different places, but have the same roots. People information and goods all move much more easily over the surface of the world.
I've lived through four recessions. Decimalisation. EEC accession. The three-day week. The oil shock. The collapse of Communism. The Dot Com boom and bust. Life will go on as it always has. There are no guarantees either way, exit or remain.
Do you regret not having a couple of world wars on your list? There's a fine line between sang-froid and complacency.
If you take the "historic" view of Labour voters as workshy benefit junkies, and ally that with a Brexit campaign promising them £350m a week, you can see how they might be persuaded to Vote leave...
Who thinks of Labour voters in those terms?
Did you type that with a straight face? :-D
On here they are either vile metropolitans, entitled public sector workers, immigrants, the workshy or the indolent. Collectively known as the client state.
Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?
I used to think non-voting would be Labour's biggest contribution to Leave winning. But the leadership's determination to allow this to be fought as a Tory battle has probably driven a lot of Labour voters directly into the Leave column.
This all chimes with my anecdotage. All my older relatives, entirely Old Labour WWC, are firm Leave. As for the younger ones, if you live on an estate, above a shop or in a rented flat up North and work in Tesco or on a ZHC for some factory or warehouse for the likes of Ashley or Amazon, why wouldn't you vote Leave, just to stick it to the Man, if no other reason?
I predicted a Leave win in the PB competition. I was just joking. But I am really starting to think that Leave will win. When we wake up bleary-eyed on the 24th and if Leave have won I am reminded of Arthur C. Clarke: (paraphrasing from memory) "he didn't know what to do next but was sure he would think of something".
I would expect a white working class Labour voter to be almost as likely to vote Leave as a working class Tory voter and probably more so than a middle-class Tory voter. Middle-class Labour voters will overwhelmingly back Remain
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning.
Watch the video. It's quite explicit.
Fewer foreign sick people in your hospital.
Isn't that a legitimate concern though, that public services are having a hard time coping with increased demand due to both population growth and immigration?
Actually, it's spending cuts all Leave Tories enthusiastically supported.
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning.
Watch the video. It's quite explicit.
Fewer foreign sick people in your hospital.
Isn't that a legitimate concern though, that public services are having a hard time coping with increased demand due to both population growth and immigration?
Actually, it's spending cuts all Leave Tories enthusiastically supported.
@JPonpolitics: Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6.
Oooh. The lefties are gonna win it for LEAVE?
Every single indicator I've seen tells me that working class Labourites are going LEAVE en masse. From personal observation to blogs to tv reports to radio vox pops to cab drivers to simple common sense - if you are a working class lefty, why vote for Dave Cameron's EU??
Hmm....
Two wards that had by-elections last night, tell a story. Gipsy Hill, historically Conservative, saw Labour and the Greens win 85%. It will vote Remain by at least 4 to 1.
Laindon Park, Basildon, is historically Labour. Con and UKIP won 61% last night. It will vote at least 4 to 1 for Leave.
Labour is losing working class votes in places like Basildon, but the Left is gaining middle class votes in places like Streatham.
Re Gypsy Hill, it has a big housing estate (Central Hill) nearby (maybe in the ward, not sure) which Lambeth have said they're going to demolish and build x2 as many units in the same space. Happening all over Lambeth. Not surprisingly various lefty groups (supported by Corbyn's brother) have helped organised resistance campaigns. I'd be surprised if this didn't affect the vote.
You reckon? Maybe I'm a bit paranoid, but anytime the BBC talk to people who want to leave they are working class. Okay, the piece tonight was about Labour's struggles to get their message across, but not once have I seen them talk to someone who would be an ABC2 voter.
Just to clarify - what I mean is I think the BBC are trying to say to people - you don't want to vote Leave and be like these people, do you?
@PaulBrandITV: Just been sent this by a tech company - their German customer won't do a deal until they know UK is staying in EU. https://t.co/5osgqgokte
No, I have not assumed we cease trading after Brexit. I would, however, like to know what other countries similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision have managed to flourish outside a large trading bloc like the USA or the EU. So far, South Korea is the only example I've been given. And once given, Leave seem to be denying it is a model to follow.
Your at it again. You asked a specific question and you got an answer to that question. Nobody said anything about denying or proposing anything.
Having got an answer to your question that, perhaps, you didn't like or expect, you tried to twist what I and other said and failed. You now are still trying to twist what I said and what to ask another question with even more conditions.
Sorry. but I for one, refuse to play. You have access to google. Do your own research.
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning.
Watch the video. It's quite explicit.
Fewer foreign sick people in your hospital.
Isn't that a legitimate concern though, that public services are having a hard time coping with increased demand due to both population growth and immigration?
Actually, it's spending cuts all Leave Tories enthusiastically supported.
Wait, wasn't Health protected?
Ask those who work on the frontline. I'm sure they'll tell you the practical effects of the government policy Tory Leavers all voted for.
Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?
I used to think non-voting would be Labour's biggest contribution to Leave winning. But the leadership's determination to allow this to be fought as a Tory battle has probably driven a lot of Labour voters directly into the Leave column.
This all chimes with my anecdotage. All my older relatives, entirely Old Labour WWC, are firm Leave. As for the younger ones, if you live on an estate, above a shop or in a rented flat up North and work in Tesco or on a ZHC for some factory or warehouse for the likes of Ashley or Amazon, why wouldn't you vote Leave, just to stick it to the Man, if no other reason?
I predicted a Leave win in the PB competition. I was just joking. But I am really starting to think that Leave will win. When we wake up bleary-eyed on the 24th and if Leave have won I am reminded of Arthur C. Clarke: (paraphrasing from memory) "he didn't know what to do next but was sure he would think of something".
I would expect a white working class Labour voter to be almost as likely to vote Leave as a working class Tory voter and probably more so than a middle-class Tory voter. Middle-class Labour voters will overwhelmingly back Remain
Sadly, all my working class Conservative relatives are now deceased.
If you take the "historic" view of Labour voters as workshy benefit junkies, and ally that with a Brexit campaign promising them £350m a week, you can see how they might be persuaded to Vote leave...
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning.
Watch the video. It's quite explicit.
Fewer foreign sick people in your hospital.
Isn't that a legitimate concern though, that public services are having a hard time coping with increased demand due to both population growth and immigration?
Actually, it's spending cuts all Leave Tories enthusiastically supported.
Wait, wasn't Health protected?
Not as a percentage of GDP. Down to 6.2% next year, despite an ageing population and obesity crisis.
Immigrants do put a degree of strain on maternity units, and do use casualty for relatively minor complaints. The real expense and bed occupation is by older Brits. That is where the bed crisis and collapse of social care keeps making the queues longer.
Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
If LEAVE gets a majority of Labour voters is REMAIN doomed?
I used to think non-voting would be Labour's biggest contribution to Leave winning. But the leadership's determination to allow this to be fought as a Tory battle has probably driven a lot of Labour voters directly into the Leave column.
This all chimes with my anecdotage. All my older relatives, entirely Old Labour WWC, are firm Leave. As for the younger ones, if you live on an estate, above a shop or in a rented flat up North and work in Tesco or on a ZHC for some factory or warehouse for the likes of Ashley or Amazon, why wouldn't you vote Leave, just to stick it to the Man, if no other reason?
I predicted a Leave win in the PB competition. I was just joking. But I am really starting to think that Leave will win. When we wake up bleary-eyed on the 24th and if Leave have won I am reminded of Arthur C. Clarke: (paraphrasing from memory) "he didn't know what to do next but was sure he would think of something".
I would expect a white working class Labour voter to be almost as likely to vote Leave as a working class Tory voter and probably more so than a middle-class Tory voter. Middle-class Labour voters will overwhelmingly back Remain
Sadly, all my working class Conservative relatives are now deceased.
Still a few Conservative Clubs about though in working class areas
I've lived through four recessions. Decimalisation. EEC accession. The three-day week. The oil shock. The collapse of Communism. The Dot Com boom and bust. Life will go on as it always has. There are no guarantees either way, exit or remain.
Do you regret not having a couple of world wars on your list? There's a fine line between sang-froid and complacency.
In my view it's neither. I do remember being scared during the Yom Kippur war (it's not mentioned much, but the USSR were ready to put their troops on the ground to fight the Israelis and the US went to DEFCON 3).
I think it's just an acceptance that the future is uncertain, and that despite all the turbulence of 'events, dear boy, events', we still get up every day, pull up our socks and carry on, no matter what is happening in the world.
We've spent a fair amount of time arguing economics and getting bogged down in detail. World GDP is around 400% higher than it was in 1973. Combined with the advances in medicine and technology we're living like royalty compared to our immediate ancestors. We've every reason to be optimistic - as long as we're prepared to take a longer view.
If Leave win and immigration is not reduced what will happen to the Politicians who have based their whole campaign on bringing down immigration through a Leave vote. Are we absolutely sure that immigration will be massively reduced through Brexit. The "Leavers" in my office are basing their reasoning for voting leave on not only immigration being reduced but on the mass forced deportation of non british people. The term "we have got to get them out" is used all the time. I do not know how wide this belief if but if a Brexit just involves tinkering round the edges and not something dramatic as hundreds of thousands of non-british citizens leaving the UK then some of the people in my office are going to be massively disappointed. If this view is replicated throughout the UK it could get interesting.
Actually it's "stealing" their jobs and places to live which is probably more concerning.
Watch the video. It's quite explicit.
Fewer foreign sick people in your hospital.
Isn't that a legitimate concern though, that public services are having a hard time coping with increased demand due to both population growth and immigration?
Actually, it's spending cuts all Leave Tories enthusiastically supported.
Wait, wasn't Health protected?
Not as a percentage of GDP. Down to 6.2% next year, despite an ageing population and obesity crisis.
Immigrants do put a degree of strain on maternity units, and do use casualty for relatively minor complaints. The real expense and bed occupation is by older Brits. That is where the bed crisis and collapse of social care keeps making the queues longer.
A fair point about it not rising with GDP (I suspect per capita it is worse?)
Yes. I should have added aging population, as well as population growth!
Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election
The problem we have now is that if the surgeon cuts a leg off by mistake we are not able to get a different surgeon tomorrow or ever and have to sit there watching him incompetently cutting more and more legs off innocent people while being applauded by influential experts for his skills.
The US is the probably the country which has more sovereignty than any other, and yet they too have experienced the same sense of powerlessness to change the direction of travel to the point that we now have the Trump phenomenon. Could it be that EU membership is not actually the root cause of this disaffection with democracy?
I agree.
Pretty much every country in the world is coming to terms with the plusses and minuses of globalisation. The changes present differently in different places, but have the same roots. People information and goods all move much more easily over the surface of the world.
Yep, they do. And huge corporations hoard cash, as do immensely wealthy individuals, and do all they can to avoid paying tax. Migration is another consequence. Brexit will not solve any of these problems, only governments working together will do that. I guess one hope of our decision to leave the EU will be that political leaders see this, but unfortunately they continue to be focused almost solely on short-term domestic agendas. To paraphrase Casino Royale, we have anologue government for a digital age.
You reckon? Maybe I'm a bit paranoid, but anytime the BBC talk to people who want to leave they are working class. Okay, the piece tonight was about Labour's struggles to get their message across, but not once have I seen them talk to someone who would be an ABC2 voter.
Just to clarify - what I mean is I think the BBC are trying to say to people - you don't want to vote Leave and be like these people, do you?
Indeed and there are more middle-class voters than working-class voters at least to allow Remain to scrape home
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
This is what is doing for Remain.
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $42,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.
New Zealand has a GDP per capita of $37, 000 so lower than the UK and we have a higher average net worth than the U.S. because of house prices
Houses here are desperately overvalued for what you get.
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
This is what is doing for Remain.
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.
They ying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $42,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.
New Zealand has a GDP per capita of $37, 000 so lower than the UK and we have a higher average net worth than the U.S. because of house prices
Perhaps New Zealand should be compared to Scotland.
Hurstlama. So you have no answer. The question is crucial. In the 1960s after the loss of empire we found that a market of 60 million was too small to support a country with the aspirations and standards that we had. The EC was the solution. I fail to see what has changed. If there are examples of countries similar to the UK who have not found it necessary to submerge their economies into large trading blocs, then I think we should be told. Perhaps we are uniquely blessed but in the absence of any convincing evidence that the solution we embraced in the 1960s is no longer needed, I'll not be gambling my grandchildren's futures. Anyhow, if I don't receive a sensible answer I've got better things to do.
Hurstlama. So you have no answer. The question is crucial. In the 1960s after the loss of empire we found that a market of 60 million was too small to support a country with the aspirations and standards that we had. The EC was the solution. I fail to see what has changed. If there are examples of countries similar to the UK who have not found it necessary to submerge their economies into large trading blocs, then I think we should be told. Perhaps we are uniquely blessed but in the absence of any convincing evidence that the solution we embraced in the 1960s is no longer needed, I'll not be gambling my grandchildren's futures. Anyhow, if I don't receive a sensible answer I've got better things to do.
Again with this 60million assertion. Are you proposing we cease all foreign trade?
On the subject of South Korea - I am wholehearted in my admiration for them; it's far from a perfect society, but any reservations about the imperfections of their society ought to be tempered by considering where they were 70 years ago. In two generations, they have, near enough, transformed themselves from Mozambique to Germany while living in the shadow of a psychopathic neighbour. In that context, I can forgive them a punishing work ethic and they odd otrher rough edge.
I watched an interesting piece of depression / suicide in South Korea and it is surprisingly a lot of old people who kill themselves. The hypothesis was that society has moved so fast, while the idea of respect must not be lost is still there.
Those failing / falling behind n the eyes of others, be it now getting good grades at school or being old and feeling a burden on others, loses that respect and thus they feel the need to kill themselves.
Bizarrely, a South Korean friend said to me that those killing themselves get little respect. Very harsh.
The ultimate damned if you do...
Yes that is what I thought.
But lots of South Korean culture is fascinating and although some has been lost with the rapid progress / Westernization, from what I understand a lot of it is still there and very strong.
There is the classic story of Korean Airlines having a terrible safety record, despite pilots being well trained and modern aircraft. And it was found it came down to the practice of not directly arguing with your elders / seniors, rather raising issues in a round about manner...such that there were examples where planes flew in a mountain with the co-pilot talking about rainy weather and low cloud being difficult to fly in, when what he meant was SHIIITTTT MOUNTAIN....MOOOOOUNTAINNNN...LOOOK MOUUNNNTAINNNN..
And in another case, a plane was running dangerously low on fuel and they kept making small talk with the tower at an airport. What they meant was NEED TO LAND...NEED TO LAND....when they were talking about how long they had been flying that day and be glad to get on the ground...and the tower just thought they were being annoyingly friendly.
They had to retrain the whole workforce to leave Korean society norms at home.
A lot of Eastern cultures find this REALLY difficult to adapt to, and still do. It's why the European airlines generally have the best safety records - with one massive, Paris-based exception.
SeanT said: "I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years."
A 5% fall is roughly equivalent to half our exports to the EU. Since first two years probably see no deal sorted - possibly not until year 3, then there should be no real change outside of the continuing problems of the EU and Eurozone in particular.
What needs modelling is what happens if the EU bumps along with a growth rate of barely 0.5% pa for the next 5 years. Unshackling us from that is where we need to go and in years 3+ we start to get benefits of lower food etc prices for substituted products and higher wage rates, potentially lower housing costs etc etc.
If Leave win and immigration is not reduced what will happen to the Politicians who have based their whole campaign on bringing down immigration through a Leave vote. Are we absolutely sure that immigration will be massively reduced through Brexit. The "Leavers" in my office are basing their reasoning for voting leave on not only immigration being reduced but on the mass forced deportation of non british people. The term "we have got to get them out" is used all the time. I do not know how wide this belief if but if a Brexit just involves tinkering round the edges and not something dramatic as hundreds of thousands of non-british citizens leaving the UK then some of the people in my office are going to be massively disappointed. If this view is replicated throughout the UK it could get interesting.
Where do you work? The offices of Der Sturmer???
No just a simple electrical contractors, its what people think, what I have written does not do justice to what people are saying. Our 61 year old financial controller is very sweet gentle lady. You wouldn't believe what she said. I have backed leave now because I think people who are normally very reserved in their views are very enthused for what they think will happen on Brexit.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
In favour of freedom of speech and all that, but really, do today's kids have no idea how to behave in public any more? Whoever's going to want to give her a job after that outburst to the PM?
Possibly also because only one half of our society has done well and the other half has seen wage stagnation, houses beyond their means and the wholesale change of their communities.
This is what is doing for Remain.
Spot on. And it is what will destroy the Leavers who takeover after Brexit too and people find out it was not the EU that caused their problems. And that as a result their problems have not only not gone away but have got worse.
If it does so be it. The British People will have regained the power to elect people who can pass laws to actually do something about it.
They can do something about it now. Plenty, in fact. But thank-you for your honesty: impoverishing many ordinary people is a price worth paying for Brexit. That is cleary the Leave establishment view. They will, of course, be entirely unaffected.
I don't think anyone is going to be impoverished. Even the Government 'shock' figures are extremely mild, and NIESR shows continued growth next year of 1.7%
As previously discussed, I very much hope you're right. I can't see it myself, but will be delighted to be proved wrong.
I think the LEAVERS are underestimating the economic shock of BREXIT. I reckon it could knock 5 points off the economy in the first five years. But in the long term I feel people are underestimating the benefits that will accrue to a UK liberated from European sluggishness.
Forget growth and unemployment, think prosperity.
There is no obvious reason to me, why an independent UK, with its mediocre GDP per capita of $42,000, yet all its advantages of language, location, education, could not equal the GDP per capita you find in other large English speaking countries:
Canada: $52,000
USA: $53,000
Australia: $67,000
That is a prize worth having, for my daughter. That's why I will vote LEAVE - along with those questions of freedom and democracy.
New Zealand has a GDP per capita of $37, 000 so lower than the UK and we have a higher average net worth than the U.S. because of house prices
Houses here are desperately overvalued for what you get.
Certainly if you are renting but if you are on the property ladder a useful nest egg
No, I have not assumed we cease trading after Brexit. I would, however, like to know what other countries similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision have managed to flourish outside a large trading bloc like the USA or the EU. So far, South Korea is the only example I've been given. And once given, Leave seem to be denying it is a model to follow.
In your lost of criteria you forgot to add "and have a Prime Minister called Dave". After all you were being so impossibly prescriptive in your description of the country you ought to have added that in for completeness.
So. We want a country which is similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision and has a Prime Minister called Dave.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
I've been campaigning for Leave for months and never heard anyone argue or expect forced repatriations as you describe.
No, I have not assumed we cease trading after Brexit. I would, however, like to know what other countries similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision have managed to flourish outside a large trading bloc like the USA or the EU. So far, South Korea is the only example I've been given. And once given, Leave seem to be denying it is a model to follow.
In your lost of criteria you forgot to add "and have a Prime Minister called Dave". After all you were being so impossibly prescriptive in your description of the country you ought to have added that in for completeness.
So. We want a country which is similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision and has a Prime Minister called Dave.
Barack Obama also hit the campaign in the solar plexus.
The Remain campaign.
When Sgt major Izzard rraised Obama wanting us to stay last night there was audible mocking laughter. Poor Luuvie confused face. I have to say I was shocked myself the fact the audience we so clear that didn't think that was a credible reason.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
In favour of freedom of speech and all that, but really, do today's kids have no idea how to behave in public any more? Whoever's going to want to give her a job after that outburst to the PM?
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
I've been campaigning for Leave for months and never heard anyone argue or expect forced repatriations as you describe.
Well there are 16 people in my office and 8 of them think this will happen, some also think this will include non-eu citizens.
The economic argument is completly wasted on them.
They think the country is too crowded, there are too many foreigners here and they need to go and Brexit will enable that. If this doesn't happen they will be very disappointed.
These are hardworking, educated, sensible people. Leave will win this easily
In favour of freedom of speech and all that, but really, do today's kids have no idea how to behave in public any more? Whoever's going to want to give her a job after that outburst to the PM?
Q: Whoever's going to want to give her a job after that outburst to the PM? A: Our public sector.
@PaulBrandITV: Just been sent this by a tech company - their German customer won't do a deal until they know UK is staying in EU. https://t.co/5osgqgokte
Maybe the UK tech company will find a better, more trustworthy customer then?
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
No, I have not assumed we cease trading after Brexit. I would, however, like to know what other countries similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision have managed to flourish outside a large trading bloc like the USA or the EU. So far, South Korea is the only example I've been given. And once given, Leave seem to be denying it is a model to follow.
In your lost of criteria you forgot to add "and have a Prime Minister called Dave". After all you were being so impossibly prescriptive in your description of the country you ought to have added that in for completeness.
So. We want a country which is similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision and has a Prime Minister called Dave.
If Leave win and immigration is not reduced what will happen to the Politicians who have based their whole campaign on bringing down immigration through a Leave vote. Are we absolutely sure that immigration will be massively reduced through Brexit. The "Leavers" in my office are basing their reasoning for voting leave on not only immigration being reduced but on the mass forced deportation of non british people. The term "we have got to get them out" is used all the time. I do not know how wide this belief if but if a Brexit just involves tinkering round the edges and not something dramatic as hundreds of thousands of non-british citizens leaving the UK then some of the people in my office are going to be massively disappointed. If this view is replicated throughout the UK it could get interesting.
One of the biggest contrasts between Remain and Leave voters in the Yougov was in immigration. 90% of Leavers were sure that Leave would cut it drastically, while 60% of Remainers thought that it would make little difference, including me. The figures are from memory but ring true.
The failure of the Conservatives to control non-EU immigration, 2015 was 277 000 gross, 188 000 net, a much bigger issue.
There is a reasonable prospect of many EU migrants moving back, as they are middle income countries in the main, and with functioning economies and civil peace (excluding Greece), and indeed Brits may well well migrate there. Spain Italy Portugal and Greece in particular but not exclusively. Non -EU migrants generally come from much lower income countries and are much more likely to settle permenantly and never return, while bringing over family members as soon as they can. These are places that few if any Brits would migrate to - Pakistan, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria etc.
There are many other reasons to be concerned about non-EU migration particularly from communities that do not integrate over generations. The fact that the government has had near zero impact on it suggests to me that it is not easily fixed.
I backed Leave today at 3.75 to trade off. I still expect Remain to win decisively - chiefly because their electorate of the middle classes are influential and reliable voters.
Are there any examples of anyone winning a national poll 12 days out when as long as 3.5 in a two-horse race? I can't think of any.
The BBC 6 News showed Burnham alone, ignored on the doorstep in a Labour area. then interviewed about six working class people who were all for Out. Then interviewed John Mann. Then said Labour not worried but "scared".
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Whether forced deportation is what people are expecting I not sure (marched to the airport or dockyard), but they are expecting large swathes of Non-britsh citizens to have to leave.
If Leave win there must be a new GE very shortly afterwards, (within months). There can be no trusting the present REMAIN supporting government to conduct EXIT negotiations with the EU grandees, in a manner that the majority of UK society would wish.
It may just be that the Tory outright victory last year, the destruction of the Lib Dems, the election of Corbyn as Labour leader, the defection of Tory moderates and big beasts to Leave, and the maximum fear led campaign have created a perfect storm for Remain.
Many many weeks ago on here the point was repeatedly made that Dave was not the ideal chap to persuade Labour voters to go with REMAIN. But REMAIN are blind to the Mrs Duffy's of this land.
Yes, they'll lose an election. Then someone else comes in and has a go. I believe that's been the case for the past umpteen years. It might even be Corbyn, the worker's friend. Rejoice!
If a surgeon cuts a leg off (the economy) by mistake, it is of no comfort to say "well, we can get a different surgeon tomorrow"
Any damage to the economy caused by the lies of Brexiteers will not be solved by an election
The problem we have now is that if the surgeon cuts a leg off by mistake we are not able to get a different surgeon tomorrow or ever and have to sit there watching him incompetently cutting more and more legs off innocent people while being applauded by influential experts for his skills.
The US is the probably the country which has more sovereignty than any other, and yet they too have experienced the same sense of powerlessness to change the direction of travel to the point that we now have the Trump phenomenon. Could it be that EU membership is not actually the root cause of this disaffection with democracy?
I agree.
Pretty much every country in the world is coming to terms with the plusses and minuses of globalisation. The changes present differently in different places, but have the same roots. People information and goods all move much more easily over the surface of the world.
This is true. The conclusion I draw from that is that our national governance arrangements should be organised in such a way so as to enable us to independently, and nimbly navigate these challenges. Long term, that is not going to happen when tied in to the most economically sclerotic region in the world.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
yes my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
In fairness, there's bound to be people like this in the country, somewhere. They're a cross we have to bear - some of the more elderly members of my Conservative club clearly think that I'm the Devil Incarnate for being what I am. I forgive them, even if I don't particularly like it.
People will extrapolate all kinds of things from Brexit - things that suit their own prejudices and special interests. All we can say is that they'll be terribly disappointed.
The NHS alone relies on immigrants. Immigrants are great and very welcome. We just have to make sure we are able to manage the numbers sensibly. I don't think that's particularly contentious.
If Leave win there must be a new GE very shortly afterwards, (within months). There can be no trusting the present REMAIN supporting government to conduct EXIT negotiations with the EU grandees, in a manner that the majority of UK society would wish.
I disagree about the GE but the REMAINers need to be largely gone from the cabinet with only a few exceptions.
It may just be that the Tory outright victory last year, the destruction of the Lib Dems, the election of Corbyn as Labour leader, the defection of Tory moderates and big beasts to Leave, and the maximum fear led campaign have created a perfect storm for Remain.
We'll see.
If Remain win it will be thanks to middle class Tories, if Leave win it will be down to working class Labour voters
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
Barack Obama also hit the campaign in the solar plexus.
The Remain campaign.
When Sgt major Izzard rraised Obama wanting us to stay last night there was audible mocking laughter. Poor Luuvie confused face. I have to say I was shocked myself the fact the audience we so clear that didn't think that was a credible reason.
I was leaning strongly Leave before Obama's intervention. It was that that put me into the firm Leave column. Don't like being threatened.
Many many weeks ago on here the point was repeatedly made that Dave was not the ideal chap to persuade Labour voters to go with REMAIN. But REMAIN are blind to the Mrs Duffy's of this land.
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
Students are in both immigrant an emigrant figures for a reason, and why we talk about net effects. 20% of people coming in as students are here 5 years later and established as permanent residents.
Taking students out fiddles the figures to look better, but nothing more. About 250 000 foreign students per annum come here each year, so adding 50 000 per year to the permananent population. Then they start bringing over spouses and families...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 5m5 minutes ago That ORB poll is bonkers. If Leave is 12% ahead in London I'll streak naked round Boris Johnson's living room.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 5m5 minutes ago That ORB poll is bonkers. If Leave is 12% ahead in London I'll streak naked round Boris Johnson's living room.
Fair play to him for actually going through with it
Barack Obama also hit the campaign in the solar plexus.
The Remain campaign.
When Sgt major Izzard rraised Obama wanting us to stay last night there was audible mocking laughter. Poor Luuvie confused face. I have to say I was shocked myself the fact the audience we so clear that didn't think that was a credible reason.
I was leaning strongly Leave before Obama's intervention. It was that that put me into the firm Leave column. Don't like being threatened.
I think the back of the queue statement was way over the line & backfired. It is the sort of bullying America has a bad name for over giving aid. If he had stuck to well I don't have a vote but working together makes things better for everybody would have worked out better.
Many many weeks ago on here the point was repeatedly made that Dave was not the ideal chap to persuade Labour voters to go with REMAIN. But REMAIN are blind to the Mrs Duffy's of this land.
At heart Dave and Corbyn are Leave. It shows.
I can't see how you can describe Dave as a Leaver. It was his risible 'negotiation' that decided me that there was no point in considering a Remain vote.
Hurstlama. So you have no answer. The question is crucial. In the 1960s after the loss of empire we found that a market of 60 million was too small to support a country with the aspirations and standards that we had. The EC was the solution. I fail to see what has changed. If there are examples of countries similar to the UK who have not found it necessary to submerge their economies into large trading blocs, then I think we should be told. Perhaps we are uniquely blessed but in the absence of any convincing evidence that the solution we embraced in the 1960s is no longer needed, I'll not be gambling my grandchildren's futures. Anyhow, if I don't receive a sensible answer I've got better things to do.
Again with this 60million assertion. Are you proposing we cease all foreign trade?
The UK had a population of about 56m during the 60s and 70s. If you can't even get such a basic statistic right then why should anything you say be taken remotely seriously?
Hurstlama. So you have no answer. The question is crucial. In the 1960s after the loss of empire we found that a market of 60 million was too small to support a country with the aspirations and standards that we had. The EC was the solution. I fail to see what has changed. If there are examples of countries similar to the UK who have not found it necessary to submerge their economies into large trading blocs, then I think we should be told. Perhaps we are uniquely blessed but in the absence of any convincing evidence that the solution we embraced in the 1960s is no longer needed, I'll not be gambling my grandchildren's futures. Anyhow, if I don't receive a sensible answer I've got better things to do.
Again with this 60million assertion. Are you proposing we cease all foreign trade?
The UK had a population of about 56m during the 60s and 70s. If you can't even get such a basic statistic right then why should anything you say be taken remotely seriously?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 5m5 minutes ago That ORB poll is bonkers. If Leave is 12% ahead in London I'll streak naked round Boris Johnson's living room.
Probably is, but was he saying it's bonkers when Remain were c.20% ahead?
Hurstlama. So you have no answer. The question is crucial. In the 1960s after the loss of empire we found that a market of 60 million was too small to support a country with the aspirations and standards that we had. The EC was the solution. I fail to see what has changed. If there are examples of countries similar to the UK who have not found it necessary to submerge their economies into large trading blocs, then I think we should be told. Perhaps we are uniquely blessed but in the absence of any convincing evidence that the solution we embraced in the 1960s is no longer needed, I'll not be gambling my grandchildren's futures. Anyhow, if I don't receive a sensible answer I've got better things to do.
Again with this 60million assertion. Are you proposing we cease all foreign trade?
The UK had a population of about 56m during the 60s and 70s. If you can't even get such a basic statistic right then why should anything you say be taken remotely seriously?
If Leave win and immigration is not reduced what will happen to the Politicians who have based their whole campaign on bringing down immigration through a Leave vote. Are we absolutely sure that immigration will be massively reduced through Brexit. The "Leavers" in my office are basing their reasoning for voting leave on not only immigration being reduced but on the mass forced deportation of non british people. The term "we have got to get them out" is used all the time. I do not know how wide this belief if but if a Brexit just involves tinkering round the edges and not something dramatic as hundreds of thousands of non-british citizens leaving the UK then some of the people in my office are going to be massively disappointed. If this view is replicated throughout the UK it could get interesting.
One of the biggest contrasts between Remain and Leave voters in the Yougov was in immigration. 90% of Leavers were sure that Leave would cut it drastically, while 60% of Remainers thought that it would make little difference, including me. The figures are from memory but ring true.
The failure of the Conservatives to control non-EU immigration, 2015 was 277 000 gross, 188 000 net, a much bigger issue.
There is a reasonable prospect of many EU migrants moving back, as they are middle income countries in the main, and with functioning economies and civil peace (excluding Greece), and indeed Brits may well well migrate there. Spain Italy Portugal and Greece in particular but not exclusively. Non -EU migrants generally come from much lower income countries and are much more likely to settle permenantly and never return, while bringing over family members as soon as they can. These are places that few if any Brits would migrate to - Pakistan, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria etc.
There are many other reasons to be concerned about non-EU migration particularly from communities that do not integrate over generations. The fact that the government has had near zero impact on it suggests to me that it is not easily fixed.
How much "Non-EU" immigration is constrained by various European legislation around human rights, right to family life, inability to deport overstayers and even criminals
I do not believe 0.1% of LEAVE voters are expecting "mass forced deportations of non-British people". Not least because clearly, if any government was that insane and cruel, the same would be done, in reverse, to Brits abroad
What will happen is that those here already will get full rights to stay, if not citizenship, so that Brits abroad can carry on, too
But yes, immigration will come down. If a Gove-Boris government took power, post Brexit, I'd expect them to remove students from the statistics, then reduce the total of non-student immigration to about 100,000.
You are not living in the real world, go to a Building Site and ask for opinions.
There are certainly people out there who have this expectation of the referendum. At a bare minimum their expectation is that there will be an end to immigration, and the more extreme are expecting deportations. This is what has been whipped up and it would be naive to think otherwise.
Garbage. I have yet to come across a single person who wants or expects that. If you are hearing that then I would suggest you review your friends as it sounds like they are part of the tiny minority voting BNP.
Really? I find that astounding, do people you speak to just talk about the economic virtues of Brexit and hope that immigration will be reduced by just a little bit. With non-eu migration and eu migration for "hard to fill" skilled jobs in this Country immigration will still be over 200,000 per year. This is not what a large proportion of leave voters will be expecting. I am unsure that the BNP has a large presence in Eastleigh.
I think you will find that such peoplr rather enjoy saying such outrageous right wing things becsuae it is so frowned upon by society. I recall a conversation involving air raids over Scotpand if Brown didnt resign the day after GE 2010. If there is someone progressive that they can scandalise then that just encourages them.
Most of them dont for a minute actually support being quite so extreme - they will vote Brexit though.
Comments
I predicted a Leave win in the PB competition. I was just joking. But I am really starting to think that Leave will win. When we wake up bleary-eyed on the 24th and if Leave have won I am reminded of Arthur C. Clarke: (paraphrasing from memory) "he didn't know what to do next but was sure he would think of something".
A: Yes.
In fag packet terms.
Q: Does anyone have any fag packet calculations as to how many Labour votes REMAIN must win to guarantee victory?
A: They probably need a ratio close to 3:1 split between LEAVE and REMAIN in the Labour voters on a 50% turnout for their REMAIN. If the Lab turnout for REMAIN is in the 60 percents then a 2:1 split might be enough.
:-o
Pretty much every country in the world is coming to terms with the plusses and minuses of globalisation. The changes present differently in different places, but have the same roots. People information and goods all move much more easily over the surface of the world.
On here they are either vile metropolitans, entitled public sector workers, immigrants, the workshy or the indolent. Collectively known as the client state.
Just to clarify - what I mean is I think the BBC are trying to say to people - you don't want to vote Leave and be like these people, do you?
Having got an answer to your question that, perhaps, you didn't like or expect, you tried to twist what I and other said and failed. You now are still trying to twist what I said and what to ask another question with even more conditions.
Sorry. but I for one, refuse to play. You have access to google. Do your own research.
http://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2016/06/remember-great-britain-great/
We are better-off-out (as Mr Llhama will testify).
Immigrants do put a degree of strain on maternity units, and do use casualty for relatively minor complaints. The real expense and bed occupation is by older Brits. That is where the bed crisis and collapse of social care keeps making the queues longer.
I think it's just an acceptance that the future is uncertain, and that despite all the turbulence of 'events, dear boy, events', we still get up every day, pull up our socks and carry on, no matter what is happening in the world.
We've spent a fair amount of time arguing economics and getting bogged down in detail. World GDP is around 400% higher than it was in 1973. Combined with the advances in medicine and technology we're living like royalty compared to our immediate ancestors. We've every reason to be optimistic - as long as we're prepared to take a longer view.
160/1, 258 behind.
Yes. I should have added aging population, as well as population growth!
The question is crucial. In the 1960s after the loss of empire we found that a market of 60 million was too small to support a country with the aspirations and standards that we had. The EC was the solution. I fail to see what has changed. If there are examples of countries similar to the UK who have not found it necessary to submerge their economies into large trading blocs, then I think we should be told.
Perhaps we are uniquely blessed but in the absence of any convincing evidence that the solution we embraced in the 1960s is no longer needed, I'll not be gambling my grandchildren's futures.
Anyhow, if I don't receive a sensible answer I've got better things to do.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/1257718/poll-reveals-david-cameron-makes-voters-twice-as-likely-to-back-brexit-in-body-blow-for-pm/
The Remain campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenerife_airport_disaster
A lot of Eastern cultures find this REALLY difficult to adapt to, and still do. It's why the European airlines generally have the best safety records - with one massive, Paris-based exception.
A 5% fall is roughly equivalent to half our exports to the EU. Since first two years probably see no deal sorted - possibly not until year 3, then there should be no real change outside of the continuing problems of the EU and Eurozone in particular.
What needs modelling is what happens if the EU bumps along with a growth rate of barely 0.5% pa for the next 5 years. Unshackling us from that is where we need to go and in years 3+ we start to get benefits of lower food etc prices for substituted products and higher wage rates, potentially lower housing costs etc etc.
In favour of freedom of speech and all that, but really, do today's kids have no idea how to behave in public any more? Whoever's going to want to give her a job after that outburst to the PM?
So. We want a country which is similar to the UK in size, lack of natural resources, density of population, employment protection and welfare provision and has a Prime Minister called Dave.
Could be a tricky one.
The economic argument is completly wasted on them.
They think the country is too crowded, there are too many foreigners here and they need to go and Brexit will enable that. If this doesn't happen they will be very disappointed.
These are hardworking, educated, sensible people. Leave will win this easily
A: Our public sector.
The failure of the Conservatives to control non-EU immigration, 2015 was 277 000 gross, 188 000 net, a much bigger issue.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016
There is a reasonable prospect of many EU migrants moving back, as they are middle income countries in the main, and with functioning economies and civil peace (excluding Greece), and indeed Brits may well well migrate there. Spain Italy Portugal and Greece in particular but not exclusively. Non -EU migrants generally come from much lower income countries and are much more likely to settle permenantly and never return, while bringing over family members as soon as they can. These are places that few if any Brits would migrate to - Pakistan, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria etc.
There are many other reasons to be concerned about non-EU migration particularly from communities that do not integrate over generations. The fact that the government has had near zero impact on it suggests to me that it is not easily fixed.
Remain out from 1.35 to 1.39.
Poll coming?
Are there any examples of anyone winning a national poll 12 days out when as long as 3.5 in a two-horse race? I can't think of any.
Poll surely imminent?
We'll see.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
People will extrapolate all kinds of things from Brexit - things that suit their own prejudices and special interests. All we can say is that they'll be terribly disappointed.
The NHS alone relies on immigrants. Immigrants are great and very welcome. We just have to make sure we are able to manage the numbers sensibly. I don't think that's particularly contentious.
Taking students out fiddles the figures to look better, but nothing more. About 250 000 foreign students per annum come here each year, so adding 50 000 per year to the permananent population. Then they start bringing over spouses and families...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 5m5 minutes ago
That ORB poll is bonkers. If Leave is 12% ahead in London I'll streak naked round Boris Johnson's living room.
I did like his 'for humanity' shrieking. Reminded me of The Simpsons: won't somebody please think of the children!
That was Remain +12 last time but I see no reference to that comparator.
Regardless of the above, this is a massive moment for Leave.
*edit* Conspiracy theory: a final attempt to GOTV for remain. Only 13 days to save the EU!
Most of them dont for a minute actually support being quite so extreme - they will vote Brexit though.