Dawn in Barcelona. I have spent much of the last three days explaining to incredulous assorted Americans and Europeans that the UK will vote to leave the EU. They just don't get it. The shockwaves that will be caused by the referendum result are going to be significant. We can only hope that they are short-lived. If the Leave establishment have this wrong in the way that Yes were wrong about the benefits of Scottish independence, then a lot of people in the UK face very uncertain, unhappy futures. But that's democracy. It's what the people will have voted for.
You keep referring to how Yes were wrong in Scotland, but what about the flip side? For the Euro it wasn't the sceptics were wrong, so what if Leave are right and Remain are wrong like the Europhiles were wrong about the Euro?
most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
That's the problem for the Brexiteers.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get
The Reverse Maastricht thing just might be a problem for the Brexiteers.
If the point of the exercise is to restore the "sovereign will of parliament", how exactly can they stop MPs voting to do a deal they personally don't like?
Doesn't bother me. So long as we leave the political Project, what deals Parliament assents to is up to them - and up to us as we can elect on the basis of implementable manifestos.
But it's more evidence that we will need a new election after a Leave vote.
I'm not sure I follow the logic of that, but if you're convinced those nice folk at Skybet are offering odds of 12/1 against a General Election this year and the same odds against 2017.
What does "should" mean when a French person is asked whether Britain "should" stay in the EU? "Should" in the sense of good for people in Britain or good for people in France?
So 65% of the French sample said Britain should leave and 34% said yes. In another survey, done for academics at Edinburgh university, the figures were 56% and 44%. Both sets of figures seem unreliable given that 65% in France (of those who expressed a preference) are said to want a referendum on Frexit source) and 42% (ditto, and same source) are said to want a Frexit.
There's no great antagonism between Britain and France at the moment, so it's possible the question "Should Britain stay?" was interpreted by many as "Do you like Britain?"
Those who think opinion polls should be consumed without salt should take account of the fact that only 1% of the French sample gave a "neither yes nor no" answer to "should Britain stay?" but 22% of another French sample gave an uncommitted answer to "should France stay?" (Source.) So more people in France care about whether Britain should be in the EU than whether France should?
If Britain does leave, France retaining its EU membership would seem to amount to tagging along with what would basically be a deutschmark zone in all but name. I doubt that would last long.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
I've watched many elections that have left me depressed. But if this goes for 'Leave' it'll be the first one that will leave me ashamed. I never thought this country would vote for xenophobia. UKIP becoming the de facto government.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
The TNS poll showing what Europe thinks of us will change very radically over the next few months if this madness happens.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived their until very recently.
He should be able to talk extensively about how the ECJ struck down the Council of Europe deal that was made to get the Danes to signup up for Maastricht, considering who he is married to, strangely doesn't mention that either
The final primaries are tomorrow, Hillary will likely win the nomination then but it would be farcical for Sanders to pull out now especially when he is so close in California
I've watched many elections that have left me depressed. But if this goes for Leave it'll be the only one that will leave me ashamed. I never thought this country would vote for xenophobia. UKIP philosophy becoming the de facto government.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
But he is correct in saying a Vote for Leave = Coming out of the Single Market and closing down the borders.
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
But the UK government agreed a deal with the EU under which the European Central Bank - i.e. eurozone countries only - would cover any liabilities that would have fallen to the UK or other non-eurozone countries. This meant that the UK and other non-eurozone countries were exempted from any risk of losing money in this emergency loan to Greece
What she says is true, but it was only after the press screamed at Cameron. The original intention was that we were to be on the hook for our share.
I believe (IIRC) there was also an attempt to use some leftover money from an old fund towards the bailout - again stopped after complaints.
Basically we have to be eternally vigilant to make sure promises are kept and we are not being stitched up. That's not a partnership I want to be part of.
ie we're not on the hook.
Next.
As far as my reading of the situation went, the extra two billion in budget contributions is seperate from the possibility of another Greek baillout.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
As we say in Yorkshire, Leavers are all fart and no follow through.
I've watched many elections that have left me depressed. But if this goes for Leave it'll be the only one that will leave me ashamed. I never thought this country would vote for xenophobia. UKIP philosophy becoming the de facto government.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
What the f*ck is it with you lefties, no one is pulling up any drawbridges, closing any gates, not even necessarily reducing the net number of immigrants (although its likely). Its about letting the British people decide their own future, and letting them throw out politicians that don't give them what they want, and yet you despise us so much you can't bring yourself to countenance it.
How is it the British are too small, too poor and too stupid to be successful outside the EU, whilst being a major world power with a top 5 economy, and yet no one is telling New Zealand they are too small and should be forming a federation with Australia, or the Japanese with China. It's bizarre.
I've watched many elections that have left me depressed. But if this goes for Leave it'll be the only one that will leave me ashamed. I never thought this country would vote for xenophobia. UKIP philosophy becoming the de facto government.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of Political Betting people aren't political betting people?
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get"
You are conflating two issues. The UK Parliament are elected by the people correct, but since their election they would, in the event of a Leave vote, have been told by the voters to Leave the European Union. If MPs then begin to chip away at that decision then we have a huge constitutional crisis and I would imagine the voters would in 2020 see fit to tell those MPs who will have lost an argument and then sought to ignore the will of the people where to get off.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
As we say in Yorkshire, Leavers are all fart and no follow through.
Or a few rich people have put a lot of money on remain and the betting numbers bear no real resemblance to the actual chances.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
As we say in Yorkshire, Leavers are all fart and no follow through.
Or a few rich people have put a lot of money on remain and the betting numbers bear no real resemblance to the actual chances.
Then Leavers should be hoovering up all that free money. Win win for you.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
But he is correct in saying a Vote for Leave = Coming out of the Single Market and closing down the borders.
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
Its not tariff free now, we pay far bigger tariffs on whole ranges of good, not least food, imported from outside the EU now compared to the maximum WTO MFN tariffs of 4%. Not only that the EU tariffs go to the EU, any tariffs we chose to impose post-Brexit would come to HM Treasury.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
Possibly the British public believe that Turkey will gain a right of residency for its citizens as part of a quid-pro-quo on migrants in much the same way as they will be getting visa free travel next month having fulfilled precisely none of the requirements that were put on them, or as part of a free trade deal, and that membership of the EU might not be a prerequisite.
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
Turkey has complied with its side of the deal - stopped the boats. It is the EU which has reneged by not giving a cent as yet and has not allowed visa free travel.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
Possibly the British public believe that Turkey will gain a right of residency for its citizens as part of a quid-pro-quo on migrants in much the same way as they will be getting visa free travel next month having fulfilled precisely none of the requirements that were put on them, or as part of a free trade deal, and that membership of the EU might not be a prerequisite.
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
Turkey has complied with its side of the deal - stopped the boats. It is the EU which has reneged by not giving a cent as yet and has not allowed visa free travel.
I thought there were many more conditions to the deal than that?
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
I think the referendum result has to be and will be respected but it means what it says on the tin: we would be leaving the EU. Specific plans announced by Vote Leave aren't on the ballot paper and the new regime would have to work to get them through Parliament if it wanted to, using the usual methods - threats, concessions, appeals to personal authority etc.
But I think it will be hard enough to assemble a majority for any course of action. That will be their real worry.
Roger. Not wanting to be governed by 'others' is not equal to hating them (xenophobia).
I think one of the main psychological differences between Reamiers and Leavers is that Remainers don't regard fellow Europeans as "others", or, at least, not to the same extent as Leavers do.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of people on here not only don't bet, they claim not to understand any betting terms anf will act incredibly offended if you offer them a wager on a prediction they make.
So, looking at the thread header I see that trade unions want us to vote Remain in order that future British governments are not free to deliver the employment law they put in their manifestos. Marvelous! Are they scared of the British people or do they hate them? Tells you all you need to know about lefty views on the merits of democracy - they want to subvert it because the plebs can't be trusted to give the 'right' outcome. Please vote Leave everybody.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
Possibly the British public believe that Turkey will gain a right of residency for its citizens as part of a quid-pro-quo on migrants in much the same way as they will be getting visa free travel next month having fulfilled precisely none of the requirements that were put on them, or as part of a free trade deal, and that membership of the EU might not be a prerequisite.
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
Turkey has complied with its side of the deal - stopped the boats. It is the EU which has reneged by not giving a cent as yet and has not allowed visa free travel.
I thought there were many more conditions to the deal than that?
Turkey can "opt out" of the deal just like the EU can. It can just rest the coast guards.
I enjoy posting on Political betting for the quality of debate (albeit more recently this seems to have got far too parochial and tribal); I am not a political gambler of any note. I once put a few quid on a previous General Election, but no spreadbetting.
I would imagine the discrepancy of the views on politicalbetting and on the referendum stem from people being like me; interested in politics but not a fan of gambling.
Moreover, even the polls suggest most Leave supporters don't think we will win. I hope we do, I think it will be closer than I imagined, and I live in hope; but I still put Remain a firm favourite.
Sometimes some of the people on here do not seem to understand there are individuals who passionately believe in something and believe in that regardless of whether we think it is popular or will win a contest.
Roger. Not wanting to be governed by 'others' is not equal to hating them (xenophobia).
I think one of the main psychological differences between Reamiers and Leavers is that Remainers don't regard fellow Europeans as "others", or, at least, not to the same extent as Leavers do.
Indeed. Wait until the Eurozone is forced to become a country. Then we'll find out just how real the dreamed of European 'demos' really is. Or isn't, as the case may be. The elites may jerk themselves into a frenzy about it - but the ordinary people of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, NL, etc have NOT given an OK for their countries to be eradicated. A recession is coming PDQ and will kill the Euro IMHO.
So, looking at the thread header I see that trade unions want us to vote Remain in order that future British governments are not free to deliver the employment law they put in their manifestos. Marvelous! Are they scared of the British people or do they hate them? Tells you all you need to know about lefty views on the merits of democracy - they want to subvert it because the plebs can't be trusted to give the 'right' outcome. Please vote Leave everybody.
There's something really odd about this whole thing - I keep seeing horror predictions of the workers' rights wasteland Brexit would usher in.
WTF? It's the British electorate who'll decide this. Are they going to back this? Of course not. It's complete rubbish. The same goes for them voting in a bunch of racist bigots who want to stone gays. I think it says a great deal more about them than the good sense of the British people.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
But he is correct in saying a Vote for Leave = Coming out of the Single Market and closing down the borders.
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
Its not tariff free now, we pay far bigger tariffs on whole ranges of good, not least food, imported from outside the EU now compared to the maximum WTO MFN tariffs of 4%. Not only that the EU tariffs go to the EU, any tariffs we chose to impose post-Brexit would come to HM Treasury.
What do you mean Tariffs go to the EU ? EU sets the tariffs , yes , but where did you get the idea that any duties paid in the ports or airports go to the EU ?
it remains unclear why the SNP so strongly supports one Union (the EU) and not the other (the UK). Partly it jars because for so long the words “Union” and “Unionism” have been treated pejoratively, synonymous with Conservatism, imperialism and lots of other regressive “isms”, thus the sudden change of tone in praising the European Union – and there-fore European Unionism – sounds insincere.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get"
You are conflating two issues. The UK Parliament are elected by the people correct, but since their election they would, in the event of a Leave vote, have been told by the voters to Leave the European Union. If MPs then begin to chip away at that decision then we have a huge constitutional crisis and I would imagine the voters would in 2020 see fit to tell those MPs who will have lost an argument and then sought to ignore the will of the people where to get off.
For the sake of argument , say the UK votes narrowly for Leave but the local count figures show that Boris's and Gove's constituents had voted a clear majority for Remain then in Parliament should they vote for the UK to remain in the EU ?
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
Possibly the British public believe that Turkey will gain a right of residency for its citizens as part of a quid-pro-quo on migrants in much the same way as they will be getting visa free travel next month having fulfilled precisely none of the requirements that were put on them, or as part of a free trade deal, and that membership of the EU might not be a prerequisite.
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
Turkey has complied with its side of the deal - stopped the boats. It is the EU which has reneged by not giving a cent as yet and has not allowed visa free travel.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
1. If you assume that the result is halfway between phone polls and on-line polls, the Remain is probably still 4-5% ahead, although their lead has slipped sharply of late. 2. There's no such thing as momentum in politics: that something moved in one direction last week does not increase the chance it will move that way this week. 3. Historically, "Don't Knows" tend to break for the status quo. (And, bizarrely, there seems to be little difference to vote with DKs.)
I can report from Stornoway that Vote Leave posters are everywhere and I haven't seen a single Remain poster although I did see one car sticker. True, Yes had more posters on the island than No during the indyref and still lost, but that was different.
The Western Isles voted 70%-30% to leave the EU in 1975. Those figures could be repeated, more or less, in 2016.
The SNP seems to be applying a pro-Remain whip quite effectively on its MSPs. (The reason for pro-EU feeling in the SNP is little to do with "the economy". It's to do with countering the view that they are little Scotlanders. Hence too the use of ludicrous car stickers saying "Ecosse".) But that doesn't mean that those who voted for the SNP in the indyref and the Scottish GE will do what they're told in the EU referendum. I doubt the Scottish Remain % will be more than 1-2% higher than the British figure.
Admittedly, that 1-2% could make the difference between being above 50% and below it.
The argument that runs "vote Remain, because then Remain can win in Scotland and Leave can win in Britain, so we can push for another referendum" has little to no weight among most people.
So, looking at the thread header I see that trade unions want us to vote Remain in order that future British governments are not free to deliver the employment law they put in their manifestos. Marvelous! Are they scared of the British people or do they hate them? Tells you all you need to know about lefty views on the merits of democracy - they want to subvert it because the plebs can't be trusted to give the 'right' outcome. Please vote Leave everybody.
There's something really odd about this whole thing - I keep seeing horror predictions of the workers' rights wasteland Brexit would usher in.
WTF? It's the British electorate who'll decide this. Are they going to back this? Of course not. It's complete rubbish. The same goes for them voting in a bunch of racist bigots who want to stone gays. I think it says a great deal more about them than the good sense of the British people.
No, the British electorate does not decide our elections. We only need 37% to vote in a government to decide what 63% did not want.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
But he is correct in saying a Vote for Leave = Coming out of the Single Market and closing down the borders.
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
Its not tariff free now, we pay far bigger tariffs on whole ranges of good, not least food, imported from outside the EU now compared to the maximum WTO MFN tariffs of 4%. Not only that the EU tariffs go to the EU, any tariffs we chose to impose post-Brexit would come to HM Treasury.
What do you mean Tariffs go to the EU ? EU sets the tariffs , yes , but where did you get the idea that any duties paid in the ports or airports go to the EU ?
If other EU countries wanted us to stay, they should have given us a better deal....
That's missing the point. in fact, the whole renegotiation, pretty much since (but not including) Cameron's Bloomberg speech, has been missing the point. The basic issue isn't Britain's 'deal': it's the nature of the EU itself.
It's unsurprising that other countries don't want to give Britain improved terms vis a vis themselves; what they should be looking to do is improve the organisation as a whole so that such deals aren't necessary. Hardly anyone is keen on the EU as it is; the division comes between those who believe that the benefits are worth the cost and/or that events will force the EU to reform towards what the European public wants (it's not just the EU), and those who believe that reform is a lost cause and/or that current and future costs are not worth the candle.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
But he is correct in saying a Vote for Leave = Coming out of the Single Market and closing down the borders.
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
Its not tariff free now, we pay far bigger tariffs on whole ranges of good, not least food, imported from outside the EU now compared to the maximum WTO MFN tariffs of 4%. Not only that the EU tariffs go to the EU, any tariffs we chose to impose post-Brexit would come to HM Treasury.
We do keep 25% of the tariffs, a few crumbs from the EU table.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
Possibly the British public believe that Turkey will gain a right of residency for its citizens as part of a quid-pro-quo on migrants in much the same way as they will be getting visa free travel next month having fulfilled precisely none of the requirements that were put on them, or as part of a free trade deal, and that membership of the EU might not be a prerequisite.
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
Turkey has complied with its side of the deal - stopped the boats. It is the EU which has reneged by not giving a cent as yet and has not allowed visa free travel.
The EU cannot grant visa free travel to the EU, it can only do so to the Schengen Zone (which is administered by the EU). The EU cannot make any 'promises' regarding the Common Travel Area (which we are a member of) because that would require the unanimous consent of a number of non-EU countries.
I enjoy posting on Political betting for the quality of debate (albeit more recently this seems to have got far too parochial and tribal); I am not a political gambler of any note. I once put a few quid on a previous General Election, but no spreadbetting.
I would imagine the discrepancy of the views on politicalbetting and on the referendum stem from people being like me; interested in politics but not a fan of gambling.
Moreover, even the polls suggest most Leave supporters don't think we will win. I hope we do, I think it will be closer than I imagined, and I live in hope; but I still put Remain a firm favourite.
Sometimes some of the people on here do not seem to understand there are individuals who passionately believe in something and believe in that regardless of whether we think it is popular or will win a contest.
I think it is more often that people on here do not understand there are vast swathes of the population who really don't care very much either way -- and that applies to most issues.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of Political Betting people aren't political betting people?
or possibly, a lot of political betting people aren't Political Betting people.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day
So, looking at the thread header I see that trade unions want us to vote Remain in order that future British governments are not free to deliver the employment law they put in their manifestos. Marvelous! Are they scared of the British people or do they hate them? Tells you all you need to know about lefty views on the merits of democracy - they want to subvert it because the plebs can't be trusted to give the 'right' outcome. Please vote Leave everybody.
There's something really odd about this whole thing - I keep seeing horror predictions of the workers' rights wasteland Brexit would usher in.
WTF? It's the British electorate who'll decide this. Are they going to back this? Of course not. It's complete rubbish. The same goes for them voting in a bunch of racist bigots who want to stone gays. I think it says a great deal more about them than the good sense of the British people.
Perhaps you could explain two things. First, why we need a legal system when in this electronic age it would be cheap enough to trust "the good sense of the British people" and indeed why we need representative, as opposed to direct, democracy at all.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of people on here not only don't bet, they claim not to understand any betting terms anf will act incredibly offended if you offer them a wager on a prediction they make.
Well, there's around £19m on BF alone on EU market, so probably 1000s of punters who have never been near our sainted site.
As it happens I'm a Remainer, who's bet on Leave, because I think they will win and I will at least have the price of a night out as a consolation.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
Hi, logical song.
1) A significant proportion of those who bet on political events do not do so with the expectation of winning, but more an avocation of hope and tribal belonging 2) A significant proportion of those who bet on political events do so on a "value bet" basis, placing money on inaccurate odds in the hope that they will move in the right direction before the election, enabling them to trade out at a profit.
If you assume that the result is halfway between phone polls and on-line polls, the Remain is probably still 4-5% ahead
On that assumption, and using the most recent five polls cited here of each kind, I make it 3.7%.
I am very sceptical of the idea that DKs will break for the "status quo" this time. Is there any evidence for that when the issue is immigration?
Even the concept of "status quo" seems less strongly applicable to continued EU membership than it does to Scotland remaining part of the Union, or to the retention of FPTP in Westminster elections.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop quite so many foreigners coming quite so fast.
Yes agreed. I've got no real problem with the right to work or even reside here with certain restrictions (maybe like having a job lined up that's at least 80% of average wages or being able to support yourself to the same level privately?) as long as it is under the sole control of the British people, which at present it's not. Wouldn't have taken that much really to have swayed my vote but the fact we got two fifths of sod all out of the negotiations was not great, and Cameron then trying to con me it was the greatest thing since sliced bread really put the tin hat on it.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of Political Betting people aren't political betting people?
or possibly, a lot of political betting people aren't Political Betting people.
Just to remove doubt, the lowercase and space were deliberate ;-)
I've watched many elections that have left me depressed. But if this goes for 'Leave' it'll be the first one that will leave me ashamed. I never thought this country would vote for xenophobia. UKIP becoming the de facto government.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
The TNS poll showing what Europe thinks of us will change very radically over the next few months if this madness happens.
When you say 'this country', do you mean the UK, which is considering leaving an international organisation, or France, where polls give the National Front's Marine Le Pen the lead over incumbent president Hollande in head-to-head second round polls (admittedly, it's unlikely that there'd be such a second round but it's not completely impossible if there's a split centre/centre-right).
I enjoy posting on Political betting for the quality of debate (albeit more recently this seems to have got far too parochial and tribal); I am not a political gambler of any note. I once put a few quid on a previous General Election, but no spreadbetting.
I would imagine the discrepancy of the views on politicalbetting and on the referendum stem from people being like me; interested in politics but not a fan of gambling.
Moreover, even the polls suggest most Leave supporters don't think we will win. I hope we do, I think it will be closer than I imagined, and I live in hope; but I still put Remain a firm favourite.
Sometimes some of the people on here do not seem to understand there are individuals who passionately believe in something and believe in that regardless of whether we think it is popular or will win a contest.
This cuts both ways. I, for example, am a passionate believer in the European ideal of free movement and trade and even, ultimately, a United States of Europe. However, I accept that the vast majority of people do not share my views, and that there exists a wide spectrum of opinions ranging from roughly my position to full withdrawal from all European institutions.
I also rarely bet, though I did make £100 betting against Grexit a couple of years ago. There's no way I'd bet on the referendum - far too many unknown unknowns! I'm here for the political discussion.
@MarkSenior For the sake of argument , say the UK votes narrowly for Leave but the local count figures show that Boris's and Gove's constituents had voted a clear majority for Remain then in Parliament should they vote for the UK to remain in the EU ?
- Two points. I agree that the idea of representative democracy does not necessarily mean an MP should follow what their electorates opinions to the letter. They are elected to represent their interests, should listen carefully and they can be voted out next time. However, in this case a national referendum on a very specific issue will have been held and I think this national referendum, and the verdict from the people should be respected; otherwise what is the point? Either don't have referenda, inform the voters the referendum is a guide only or respect the will of the people in them.
- Second point, the referendum is essentially a single, national constituency. There is no Boris Johnson or Michael Gove's constituency in these cases.
most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
That's the problem for the Brexiteers.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get
Indeed. But if you think that the British parliament would do anything other than respect the will of the nation as expressed in a referendum then in that event, I expect you to be uncomfortably surprised.
(The only exception I'd make is if the referendum is so close that there are questions about the accuracy of the declared result, though in that case it'd be a real constitutional crisis, quite possibly leading to a second vote rather than parliament trying to close down the issue one way or the other).
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of people on here not only don't bet, they claim not to understand any betting terms anf will act incredibly offended if you offer them a wager on a prediction they make.
Well, there's around £19m on BF alone on EU market, so probably 1000s of punters who have never been near our sainted site.
As it happens I'm a Remainer, who's bet on Leave, because I think they will win and I will at least have the price of a night out as a consolation.
I only bet on things I don't care much about. I've always had a fear of counting chickens, so never jinx an outcome my heart wants.
most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
That's the problem for the Brexiteers.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get
Indeed. But if you think that the British parliament would do anything other than respect the will of the nation as expressed in a referendum then in that event, I expect you to be uncomfortably surprised.
(The only exception I'd make is if the referendum is so close that there are questions about the accuracy of the declared result, though in that case it'd be a real constitutional crisis, quite possibly leading to a second vote rather than parliament trying to close down the issue one way or the other).
Well there have been problems - biased instructions going out and EU Nationals sent polling instructions. I don't think that Remain could claim that either have disadvantaged them.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day
I think that's somewhat of an exaggeration but it will harm our reputation abroad.
Then again the reputation we have built up over centuries is not exactly lilywhite.
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
As we say in Yorkshire, Leavers are all fart and no follow through.
As we say in Warwickshire remainers are all blocked up and too full of shit to let go.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day
The overwhelming impression one gets from reading this site is that most political betting people here want Leave to win and think that they will, but on Betfair where political betting people actually put their money it's about 65:35 that we will Remain. Can anyone explain that?
A lot of Political Betting people aren't political betting people?
or possibly, a lot of political betting people aren't Political Betting people.
Just to remove doubt, the lowercase and space were deliberate ;-)
Sure - but it does work both ways. A lot of people on the site don't bet, and a lot (far more, I'd imagine) people who bet don't visit the site.
@MarkSenior For the sake of argument , say the UK votes narrowly for Leave but the local count figures show that Boris's and Gove's constituents had voted a clear majority for Remain then in Parliament should they vote for the UK to remain in the EU ?
- Two points. I agree that the idea of representative democracy does not necessarily mean an MP should follow what their electorates opinions to the letter. They are elected to represent their interests, should listen carefully and they can be voted out next time. However, in this case a national referendum on a very specific issue will have been held and I think this national referendum, and the verdict from the people should be respected; otherwise what is the point? Either don't have referenda, inform the voters the referendum is a guide only or respect the will of the people in them.
- Second point, the referendum is essentially a single, national constituency. There is no Boris Johnson or Michael Gove's constituency in these cases.
Votes are being counted on a local basis in some cases as a single constituency in others 2 or 3 constituencies together . It may be that local factors cause a particular area to vote contrary to the national view , you seem to be saying that in this case the MP can put national considerations before that of his constituents . .
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Strange that Stephen Kinnock doesn't mention the Swiss model, after all he lived there until very recently.
But he is correct in saying a Vote for Leave = Coming out of the Single Market and closing down the borders.
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
Its not tariff free now, we pay far bigger tariffs on whole ranges of good, not least food, imported from outside the EU now compared to the maximum WTO MFN tariffs of 4%. Not only that the EU tariffs go to the EU, any tariffs we chose to impose post-Brexit would come to HM Treasury.
Does this fall within the £8.5bn already or on top of it?
Admittedly, that 1-2% could make the difference between being above 50% and below it.
Since 1-2% of the Scottish vote would likely to be in the low tens rather than hundreds of thousands, the odds are hugely against that 1-2% tipping the result either way.
I've watched many elections that have left me depressed. But if this goes for 'Leave' it'll be the first one that will leave me ashamed. I never thought this country would vote for xenophobia. UKIP becoming the de facto government.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
The TNS poll showing what Europe thinks of us will change very radically over the next few months if this madness happens.
When you say 'this country', do you mean the UK, which is considering leaving an international organisation, or France, where polls give the National Front's Marine Le Pen the lead over incumbent president Hollande in head-to-head second round polls (admittedly, it's unlikely that there'd be such a second round but it's not completely impossible if there's a split centre/centre-right).
The 'worst' it gets in this country is Nigel Farage who, for all his faults, is neither a fascist nor a racist.
I am proud of my country and its innate good sense.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day
It is grim and depressing. If people vote for a campaign that is openly, unabashedly xenophobic, and which ranges from campaigning on "foreign criminals" to ther prospect of sex attacks on British women if we stay in the EU, this country will deserve absolutely everything it gets from the economic disaster of Brexit.
most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
That's the problem for the Brexiteers.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get
Indeed. But if you think that the British parliament would do anything other than respect the will of the nation as expressed in a referendum then in that event, I expect you to be uncomfortably surprised.
(The only exception I'd make is if the referendum is so close that there are questions about the accuracy of the declared result, though in that case it'd be a real constitutional crisis, quite possibly leading to a second vote rather than parliament trying to close down the issue one way or the other).
On the parliamentary arithmetic, unless Labour had a whipped vote against a new UK-EU deal I can't see it failing to pass the commons.
Let's be pessimistic: the SNP will definitely vote against, Green/SDLP/LD/Plaid too and Labour too
Conversely, Carswell/DUP/UUP/Tory leadership for (but with 40 Tory rebels and abstentions) except a dozen or so Labour Brexit rebels join them
I get about 308 MPs for the new deal and 299 against. That's with all other Labour MPs obeying the whip.
The bigger problem will be getting it through the Lords, IMHO.
In the early days of the campaign every time they were criticised for not knowing what Brexit meant the refrain was that it won't be up to us.
I remain convinced that Leave are whipping up the anti-immigration vote knowing full well that a single market option with F0M will follow. I just think Boris & Gove hope they will be able blame someone else when it happens.
The Tories that dominate the Leave campaign will look on the angry UKIP brigade as the poor bloody infantry. Their views will be dispensed with the moment they have served their purpose. As someone who could live with EEA/EFTA I don't mind but that is how I see it panning out.
most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
That's the problem for the Brexiteers.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get
Indeed. But if you think that the British parliament would do anything other than respect the will of the nation as expressed in a referendum then in that event, I expect you to be uncomfortably surprised.
(The only exception I'd make is if the referendum is so close that there are questions about the accuracy of the declared result, though in that case it'd be a real constitutional crisis, quite possibly leading to a second vote rather than parliament trying to close down the issue one way or the other).
On the parliamentary arithmetic, unless Labour had a whipped vote against a new UK-EU deal I can't see it failing to pass the commons.
Let's be pessimistic: the SNP will definitely vote against, Green/SDLP/LD/Plaid too and Labour too
Conversely, Carswell/DUP/UUP/Tory leadership for (but with 40 Tory rebels and abstentions) except a dozen or so Labour Brexit rebels join them
I get about 308 MPs for the new deal and 299 against. That's with all other Labour MPs obeying the whip.
The bigger problem will be getting it through the Lords, IMHO.
If the Lords go against the express will of the people recorded in a direct referendum, I can see more winds of change coming their way.
But, isn't there a convention that the Lords does not block what is expressly in a manifesto? If so, isn't a referendum result even more explicit than one pledge of many in a manifesto? The logic must surely be that the convention would extend to referendum results.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
It is a deplorable indightment of the British people as much as the leaers promoting it. Their whole campaign is based on xenophobia and that's how it will be seen around the world. A reputation which Britain has built up over centuries will be lost in a single day
It is grim and depressing. If people vote for a campaign that is openly, unabashedly xenophobic, and which ranges from campaigning on "foreign criminals" to ther prospect of sex attacks on British women if we stay in the EU, this country will deserve absolutely everything it gets from the economic disaster of Brexit.
Are you saying you are OK with "foreign criminals", sex attacks on British women?
I think for most people, the Democracy is the prime mover. Being able to curb foreign criminals & sex attacks is just a bonus.
In the early days of the campaign every time they were criticised for not knowing what Brexit meant the refrain was that it won't be up to us.
I remain convinced that Leave are whipping up the anti-immigration vote knowing full well that a single market option with F0M will follow. I just think Boris & Gove hope they will be able blame someone else when it happens.
The Tories that dominate the Leave campaign will look on the angry UKIP brigade as the poor bloody infantry. Their views will be dispensed with the moment they have served their purpose. As someone who could live with EEA/EFTA I don't mind but that is how I see it panning out.
Indeed and we'll be back to square one. Rinse and repeat in 5 or 10 years time.
Comments
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get
Since that is not a real thing that is happening, how should Parliament respect that wish?
If you stand on a platform of moonbeams and fairy dust, you can't complain when they are not delivered.
Mr M is correct. "You have a referendum, you propose, but we dispose."
That would be political suicide.
So 65% of the French sample said Britain should leave and 34% said yes. In another survey, done for academics at Edinburgh university, the figures were 56% and 44%. Both sets of figures seem unreliable given that 65% in France (of those who expressed a preference) are said to want a referendum on Frexit source) and 42% (ditto, and same source) are said to want a Frexit.
There's no great antagonism between Britain and France at the moment, so it's possible the question "Should Britain stay?" was interpreted by many as "Do you like Britain?"
Those who think opinion polls should be consumed without salt should take account of the fact that only 1% of the French sample gave a "neither yes nor no" answer to "should Britain stay?" but 22% of another French sample gave an uncommitted answer to "should France stay?" (Source.) So more people in France care about whether Britain should be in the EU than whether France should?
If Britain does leave, France retaining its EU membership would seem to amount to tagging along with what would basically be a deutschmark zone in all but name. I doubt that would last long.
I know there are xenophobes in this country-this site has more than its fair share-but I've never thought they were anywher near a majority.
The TNS poll showing what Europe thinks of us will change very radically over the next few months if this madness happens.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/78/83/29/7883292bcb8dc46ceecf84f89681b6be.jpg
Access to the Single Market is not the same as being in the Single Market. After all, we have access to the Chinese market as well or any other market. But that would not necessarily be tariff free - either way.
Can anyone explain that?
How is it the British are too small, too poor and too stupid to be successful outside the EU, whilst being a major world power with a top 5 economy, and yet no one is telling New Zealand they are too small and should be forming a federation with Australia, or the Japanese with China. It's bizarre.
However, on the day itself I still believe that Remain will win comfortably.
"That's the problem for the Brexiteers.
Gove claimed on TV that the EU was an undemocratic elite cos you can't vote them out.
He can't now claim the UK Parliament are also an undemocratic elite.
If Brexit wants to assert the "sovereign will of the British parliament" then that is what they get"
You are conflating two issues. The UK Parliament are elected by the people correct, but since their election they would, in the event of a Leave vote, have been told by the voters to Leave the European Union. If MPs then begin to chip away at that decision then we have a huge constitutional crisis and I would imagine the voters would in 2020 see fit to tell those MPs who will have lost an argument and then sought to ignore the will of the people where to get off.
But I think it will be hard enough to assemble a majority for any course of action. That will be their real worry.
I would imagine the discrepancy of the views on politicalbetting and on the referendum stem from people being like me; interested in politics but not a fan of gambling.
Moreover, even the polls suggest most Leave supporters don't think we will win. I hope we do, I think it will be closer than I imagined, and I live in hope; but I still put Remain a firm favourite.
Sometimes some of the people on here do not seem to understand there are individuals who passionately believe in something and believe in that regardless of whether we think it is popular or will win a contest.
WTF? It's the British electorate who'll decide this. Are they going to back this? Of course not. It's complete rubbish. The same goes for them voting in a bunch of racist bigots who want to stone gays. I think it says a great deal more about them than the good sense of the British people.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36276419
2. There's no such thing as momentum in politics: that something moved in one direction last week does not increase the chance it will move that way this week.
3. Historically, "Don't Knows" tend to break for the status quo. (And, bizarrely, there seems to be little difference to vote with DKs.)
Personally, I think the odds are about right.
EU Referendum: Are the Western Isles the most Eurosceptic part of Britain?".
I can report from Stornoway that Vote Leave posters are everywhere and I haven't seen a single Remain poster although I did see one car sticker. True, Yes had more posters on the island than No during the indyref and still lost, but that was different.
The Western Isles voted 70%-30% to leave the EU in 1975. Those figures could be repeated, more or less, in 2016.
The SNP seems to be applying a pro-Remain whip quite effectively on its MSPs. (The reason for pro-EU feeling in the SNP is little to do with "the economy". It's to do with countering the view that they are little Scotlanders. Hence too the use of ludicrous car stickers saying "Ecosse".) But that doesn't mean that those who voted for the SNP in the indyref and the Scottish GE will do what they're told in the EU referendum. I doubt the Scottish Remain % will be more than 1-2% higher than the British figure.
Admittedly, that 1-2% could make the difference between being above 50% and below it.
The argument that runs "vote Remain, because then Remain can win in Scotland and Leave can win in Britain, so we can push for another referendum" has little to no weight among most people.
http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/money/revenue-income/index_en.htm
It's unsurprising that other countries don't want to give Britain improved terms vis a vis themselves; what they should be looking to do is improve the organisation as a whole so that such deals aren't necessary. Hardly anyone is keen on the EU as it is; the division comes between those who believe that the benefits are worth the cost and/or that events will force the EU to reform towards what the European public wants (it's not just the EU), and those who believe that reform is a lost cause and/or that current and future costs are not worth the candle.
http://www.greatcaricatures.com/articles_galleries/gillray/galleries/html/1787_0529_monstrous.html
As it happens I'm a Remainer, who's bet on Leave, because I think they will win and I will at least have the price of a night out as a consolation.
1) A significant proportion of those who bet on political events do not do so with the expectation of winning, but more an avocation of hope and tribal belonging
2) A significant proportion of those who bet on political events do so on a "value bet" basis, placing money on inaccurate odds in the hope that they will move in the right direction before the election, enabling them to trade out at a profit.
Betting odds are a lousy predictor of results...
I am very sceptical of the idea that DKs will break for the "status quo" this time. Is there any evidence for that when the issue is immigration?
Even the concept of "status quo" seems less strongly applicable to continued EU membership than it does to Scotland remaining part of the Union, or to the retention of FPTP in Westminster elections.
I also rarely bet, though I did make £100 betting against Grexit a couple of years ago. There's no way I'd bet on the referendum - far too many unknown unknowns! I'm here for the political discussion.
- Two points. I agree that the idea of representative democracy does not necessarily mean an MP should follow what their electorates opinions to the letter. They are elected to represent their interests, should listen carefully and they can be voted out next time. However, in this case a national referendum on a very specific issue will have been held and I think this national referendum, and the verdict from the people should be respected; otherwise what is the point? Either don't have referenda, inform the voters the referendum is a guide only or respect the will of the people in them.
- Second point, the referendum is essentially a single, national constituency. There is no Boris Johnson or Michael Gove's constituency in these cases.
(The only exception I'd make is if the referendum is so close that there are questions about the accuracy of the declared result, though in that case it'd be a real constitutional crisis, quite possibly leading to a second vote rather than parliament trying to close down the issue one way or the other).
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Then again the reputation we have built up over centuries is not exactly lilywhite.
Better out than in
I am proud of my country and its innate good sense.
Let's be pessimistic: the SNP will definitely vote against, Green/SDLP/LD/Plaid too and Labour too
Conversely, Carswell/DUP/UUP/Tory leadership for (but with 40 Tory rebels and abstentions) except a dozen or so Labour Brexit rebels join them
I get about 308 MPs for the new deal and 299 against. That's with all other Labour MPs obeying the whip.
The bigger problem will be getting it through the Lords, IMHO.
I remain convinced that Leave are whipping up the anti-immigration vote knowing full well that a single market option with F0M will follow. I just think Boris & Gove hope they will be able blame someone else when it happens.
The Tories that dominate the Leave campaign will look on the angry UKIP brigade as the poor bloody infantry. Their views will be dispensed with the moment they have served their purpose. As someone who could live with EEA/EFTA I don't mind but that is how I see it panning out.
But, isn't there a convention that the Lords does not block what is expressly in a manifesto? If so, isn't a referendum result even more explicit than one pledge of many in a manifesto? The logic must surely be that the convention would extend to referendum results.
I think for most people, the Democracy is the prime mover. Being able to curb foreign criminals & sex attacks is just a bonus.