Times story > Remain wanted to run a poster with Boris in Farage's pocket, to be leaked to the Guardian - but blocked by Number 10 over concerns of post-result Party reconciliation...
No idea if that's true or faux-olive branch. I suspect the latter given the personal insults of Mayor yesterday.
The trade union intervention emphasises just how poor Labour's Remain effort has been. Die-hard Corbynistas would never blame the great leader for this, but there will be a fair few who voted for him - and who have supported him up to now - who will be bitterly disappointed by the result come 24th June. It could just be that Dave and George are not the only casualties of Brexit. Though their departures will be more immediate.
I mentioned earlier seeing a couple of dozen Labourites very disappointed/talking of/have cancelled their memberships over Corbyn's stance on the EU. They feel cheated. None struck me as hardcore sorts - just average bods who'd thought his EU position was a key factor.
This whole campaign period has exposed fault lines all over - no one seems impressed by Owen Jones/Paul Mason turning their coats either.
To be fair to Corbyn, I don't think he ran for the leadership as a europhile, and his previous views on the EU were well-known.
The trade union intervention emphasises just how poor Labour's Remain effort has been. Die-hard Corbynistas would never blame the great leader for this, but there will be a fair few who voted for him - and who have supported him up to now - who will be bitterly disappointed by the result come 24th June. It could just be that Dave and George are not the only casualties of Brexit. Though their departures will be more immediate.
I mentioned earlier seeing a couple of dozen Labourites very disappointed/talking of/have cancelled their memberships over Corbyn's stance on the EU. They feel cheated. None struck me as hardcore sorts - just average bods who'd thought his EU position was a key factor.
This whole campaign period has exposed fault lines all over - no one seems impressed by Owen Jones/Paul Mason turning their coats either.
To be fair to Corbyn, I don't think he ran for the leadership as a europhile, and his previous views on the EU were well-known.
Indeed. It seems to be the only thing he's come close to changing his mind about since he became leader - although his speech a few days back was hardly a massive endorsement of Remain.
Times story > Remain wanted to run a poster with Boris in Farage's pocket, to be leaked to the Guardian - but blocked by Number 10 over concerns of post-result Party reconciliation...
No idea if that's true or faux-olive branch. I suspect the latter given the personal insults of Mayor yesterday.
Perhaps @Roger would have a view, but surely an advert as obviously derivative as that would have minimal impact?
The original worked because it was unexpected, shocking and chimed with what people thought. The reaction of most to a new version would just be boredom and a shrug?
How Parliament deals with a Leave vote is going to be very interesting indeed. The MPs themselves are about 2:1 for Remain, will they vote according to their consciences, their whips, or the will of the electorate?
In a previous poll Boris and Farage both had much higher trust ratings than Cameron. Now if those were mainly from different voters, this would backfire from combining two strong positions.
I see that Gazza is facing trial in Wolverhampton on June 17-20 for telling a joke deemed offensive which even the independent thinks is going too far and 'a wilful act of cruelty'
To be honest it is a sign how far things have changed that there is not more excitement arising from this poll. It just fits a consistent pattern of polling over the last week and in fact is older than pretty much any of them because of the way that TNS works.
Leave probably are 2-3% ahead at the moment and it does look as if the late breakers are more even than was once assumed. This is looking incredibly close and frankly impossible to call at the moment. Turnout will be all.
Dawn in Barcelona. I have spent much of the last three days explaining to incredulous assorted Americans and Europeans that the UK will vote to leave the EU. They just don't get it. The shockwaves that will be caused by the referendum result are going to be significant. We can only hope that they are short-lived. If the Leave establishment have this wrong in the way that Yes were wrong about the benefits of Scottish independence, then a lot of people in the UK face very uncertain, unhappy futures. But that's democracy. It's what the people will have voted for.
Interesting. I don't think this is dissimilar to Americans failing to understand why Tony Blair wasn't viewed as the best thing since sliced bread in the UK, or Eastern Europeans (from behind the iron curtain) failing to understand why Margaret Thatcher was defenestrated. Or the establishment bewilderment at how Churchill was unceremoniously booted out in 1945.
That's very good. Leave need to make more use of Hannan, he's relentlessly positive and has been on the inside of the EU for long enough to know the arguments inside out, having a very good line about the EU itself as a corrupt institution.
He's also the first politician I ever remember asking voters to sack him!
That would give us pro-Leave, pro EEA voters (there are at least half a dozen on this site) a bit of a dilemma. It might cause real tensions in the Leave camp and confuse the message on immigration that is proving so potent.
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
I see that Gazza is facing trial in Wolverhampton on June 17-20 for telling a joke deemed offensive which even the independent thinks is going too far and 'a wilful act of cruelty'
Cameron teams up with rivals to accuse Leave campaign of 'con-trick' - The Guardian.
Goodbye 'Reason'.
What the hell is the PM up to? He's really lost his mind over this referendum, maybe he realises he's toast in his current position and wants to go out with a Remain vote at whatever cost to himself and his party?
In the eyes of many Conservatives he might has well have crossed the floor already.
How Parliament deals with a Leave vote is going to be very interesting indeed. The MPs themselves are about 2:1 for Remain, will they vote according to their consciences, their whips, or the will of the electorate?
Ex Scottish Labour MPs can probably tell you. Mind you it may be quite a few MPs will say 'I was for Brexit all along - I just didn't want to upset party harmony'.
I see that Gazza is facing trial in Wolverhampton on June 17-20 for telling a joke deemed offensive which even the independent thinks is going too far and 'a wilful act of cruelty'
How Parliament deals with a Leave vote is going to be very interesting indeed. The MPs themselves are about 2:1 for Remain, will they vote according to their consciences, their whips, or the will of the electorate?
Ex Scottish Labour MPs can probably tell you. Mind you it may be quite a few MPs will say 'I was for Brexit all along - I just didn't want to upset party harmony'.
The fallout is going to be very interesting either way, both from Conservative and Labour points of view - it's clear that the members and activists of both parties have quite different views to the current elected representatives.
Whatever the result of the referendum, the next four years are going to be the most interesting politically of my lifetime!
"I see that Gazza is facing trial in Wolverhampton on June 17-20."
I'm not sure Gazza should be out on his own. So the CPS will be charging a seven-year-old with being a seven-year-old. A little cruel?
And I'm not sure that the Unions should be publicising the fact that they want to be in Europe to subvert the will of the British people. Yes, they are defending their workers rights but they might be better off helping to make Labour more electable.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Remind me what his mum and dad did prior to retirement? They really needed someone else with a different surname to make such a point
Cameron teams up with rivals to accuse Leave campaign of 'con-trick' - The Guardian.
Goodbye 'Reason'.
What the hell is the PM up to? He's really lost his mind over this referendum, maybe he realises he's toast in his current position and wants to go out with a Remain vote at whatever cost to himself and his party?
In the eyes of many Conservatives he might has well have crossed the floor already.
If the Brexiteers stood on an explicit platform of no EFTA/EEA, you might be right, but since they are standing on a platform of Unicorns and wishes, it is not unreasonable for elected representatives to interpret a result in the best possible light for their constituents
@bbclaurak: On road with Vote Leave today - take their claims today we'd be on hook for billions extra if we stay in EU with bucket of salt
Is that an editorial comment?
It does seem a curious thing to say. It is also the case that for as long as our economy outperforms the EZ our contributions to the EU budget will increase as they did when we had to take parts of the black economy into account. Whether Boris's figures relate to this or something else is not that clear at the moment.
As an aside, don't unions work by restricting the supply of labour?
So why have they done nothing while the party they support has enthusiastically flooded the country with cheap imported labour?
Surely not all union members are in the public sector?
TBH, I really don't understand this at all. The RMT and Baker's Union are pro-Brexit. Another big union in NI NIPSA is also for Leave. The rest IIRC are for Remain.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
Times story > Remain wanted to run a poster with Boris in Farage's pocket, to be leaked to the Guardian - but blocked by Number 10 over concerns of post-result Party reconciliation...
No idea if that's true or faux-olive branch. I suspect the latter given the personal insults of Mayor yesterday.
Perhaps @Roger would have a view, but surely an advert as obviously derivative as that would have minimal impact?
The original worked because it was unexpected, shocking and chimed with what people thought. The reaction of most to a new version would just be boredom and a shrug?
The original also worked because the widely foreseen outcome - Minority Lab Govt in search of support - rang true & the poster summed it up.
In what sense one of the leaders of the Official LEAVE campaign would be 'in the pocket' of the party leader of a party with one MP (who he doesn't get on with) is beyond me.
If LEAVE win, Nige will go down the pub, and pop out now and then to congratulate the British people on the wisdom of their choice, then fade away when it gets messy.....
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Agreed. The trouble there is immigration.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
The Reverse Maastricht thing just might be a problem for the Brexiteers.
If the point of the exercise is to restore the "sovereign will of parliament", how exactly can they stop MPs voting to do a deal they personally don't like?
it remains unclear why the SNP so strongly supports one Union (the EU) and not the other (the UK). Partly it jars because for so long the words “Union” and “Unionism” have been treated pejoratively, synonymous with Conservatism, imperialism and lots of other regressive “isms”, thus the sudden change of tone in praising the European Union – and there-fore European Unionism – sounds insincere.
So you're saying that if Remain win, you'd be happy to see Parliament vote to leave because "We know best."
That's not what they are proposing.
If we vote leave, we leave, but the argument is the terms of leaving will be decided by Parliament (what Brexiteers claim they want to happen anyway), not by the Faragists
How can the Brexiteers claim they want to ignore the "sovereign will of Parliament" ?
To be honest it is a sign how far things have changed that there is not more excitement arising from this poll. It just fits a consistent pattern of polling over the last week and in fact is older than pretty much any of them because of the way that TNS works.
Leave probably are 2-3% ahead at the moment and it does look as if the late breakers are more even than was once assumed. This is looking incredibly close and frankly impossible to call at the moment. Turnout will be all.
Of course, anyone who doesn't think that Remain still have one or two major rounds of heavy ammunition in their armoury is naive.
Our membership of the EU means everything to a lot of very influential people and they will do whatever they can, and say whatever needs to be said, over the next two weeks to try and claw this back.
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Agreed. The trouble there is immigration.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
Dunno.
I don't see how it could be consistent with the leave campaign to enter into any agreement which prevented a restriction on immigration. If we can retain access to the Single Market but still limit the number of EU citizens entitled to come here I for one would be delighted.
1) The swing is still within MOE 2) The swing is less than other swings previously recorded the other way and 3) It is an online poll.
Genuine question: is the MoE measured on the swing or on the actual figures?
(i.e. YouGov is +4 for Leave - outside MoE - but the swing is +2 to Leave - inside MoE)
I would say it would be absolute values. Thus for a change of +4
38 = 35 --38 -- 41 42 = 39 --42 -- 45
There is some overlap.
However - the MOE is not linear assuming Normal Distribution. The poll is more likely to be +- 1% rather than +2-+3 || -2 - -3.
Forgot that the starting poll could also be one end of the MoE spectrum
But a 6 point spread is pretty bloody useless
Well if it helps - remember you would have to multiply the two probabilities together - so if there is a 10% chance of being 2-3% out on one poll and 10% of being 2-3% out on the other then there is only a 1% chance of the overlap occurring.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
But the UK government agreed a deal with the EU under which the European Central Bank - i.e. eurozone countries only - would cover any liabilities that would have fallen to the UK or other non-eurozone countries. This meant that the UK and other non-eurozone countries were exempted from any risk of losing money in this emergency loan to Greece
What she says is true, but it was only after the press screamed at Cameron. The original intention was that we were to be on the hook for our share.
I believe (IIRC) there was also an attempt to use some leftover money from an old fund towards the bailout - again stopped after complaints.
Basically we have to be eternally vigilant to make sure promises are kept and we are not being stitched up. That's not a partnership I want to be part of.
@bbclaurak: On road with Vote Leave today - take their claims today we'd be on hook for billions extra if we stay in EU with bucket of salt
Is that an editorial comment?
It does seem a curious thing to say. It is also the case that for as long as our economy outperforms the EZ our contributions to the EU budget will increase as they did when we had to take parts of the black economy into account. Whether Boris's figures relate to this or something else is not that clear at the moment.
it remains unclear why the SNP so strongly supports one Union (the EU) and not the other (the UK). Partly it jars because for so long the words “Union” and “Unionism” have been treated pejoratively, synonymous with Conservatism, imperialism and lots of other regressive “isms”, thus the sudden change of tone in praising the European Union – and there-fore European Unionism – sounds insincere.
Not sure I agree with that. There is a certain logic that small countries such as a putative independent Scotland are more secure within the umbrella of an organisation like the EU. I think the SNP recognise that if Scotland leaves the EU with the rest of the UK then it is yet another barrier to getting a yes vote making splitting from rUK just that bit scarier.
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Agreed. The trouble there is immigration.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
Dunno.
Although my point is that - made up numbers - 35% of people are voting to leave because of immigration. 16% are voting for other factors such as sovereignty, nostalgia, kicking that nice Mr Cameron, etc.
So - in this scenario - 65% might support EFTA with free movement and 35% would be unhappy. It's not immediately obvious that it's a betrayal. Politically very difficult though, if not impossible.
The trade union intervention emphasises just how poor Labour's Remain effort has been. Die-hard Corbynistas would never blame the great leader for this, but there will be a fair few who voted for him - and who have supported him up to now - who will be bitterly disappointed by the result come 24th June. It could just be that Dave and George are not the only casualties of Brexit. Though their departures will be more immediate.
Corbyn is Eurosceptic, he's Bennite at heart, even in the Labour Leadership contest he criticised the EU. If he was not the Labour leader he would be campaigning for out its as simple as that. IMO there is a stronger case for Leave from the Left than even from the Right.
The view that the EU is a bit crap but we're better off inside is the centre of gravity for the centre-left. SOP for politicians generally who are speaking in favour of something is to swallow doubts and say it's fantastic and the alternative is catastrophe, but Corbyn doesn't actually do bullshit - he either says what he thinks or he purses his lips and says nothing.
In fact, he's going to make a further four speeches for Remain. I think he's saying exactly what he believes, and in this particular instance he's closer to most Labour voters than, say, me.
To be honest it is a sign how far things have changed that there is not more excitement arising from this poll. It just fits a consistent pattern of polling over the last week and in fact is older than pretty much any of them because of the way that TNS works.
Leave probably are 2-3% ahead at the moment and it does look as if the late breakers are more even than was once assumed. This is looking incredibly close and frankly impossible to call at the moment. Turnout will be all.
Of course, anyone who doesn't think that Remain still have one or two major rounds of heavy ammunition in their armoury is naive.
Our membership of the EU means everything to a lot of very influential people and they will do whatever they can, and say whatever needs to be said, over the next two weeks to try and claw this back.
This isn't over yet.
Osborne is in NI today with his doom-mongering message. I expect him to do Wales and Cornwall plus anywhere else that gets EU funding.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Agreed. The trouble there is immigration.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
Dunno.
I don't see how it could be consistent with the leave campaign to enter into any agreement which prevented a restriction on immigration. If we can retain access to the Single Market but still limit the number of EU citizens entitled to come here I for one would be delighted.
That would give us pro-Leave, pro EEA voters (there are at least half a dozen on this site) a bit of a dilemma. It might cause real tensions in the Leave camp and confuse the message on immigration that is proving so potent.
It would be fascinating theatre if, say, Leave won by a very narrow margin, and Parliament voted down legislation to achieve that end.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
But the UK government agreed a deal with the EU under which the European Central Bank - i.e. eurozone countries only - would cover any liabilities that would have fallen to the UK or other non-eurozone countries. This meant that the UK and other non-eurozone countries were exempted from any risk of losing money in this emergency loan to Greece
What she says is true, but it was only after the press screamed at Cameron. The original intention was that we were to be on the hook for our share.
I believe (IIRC) there was also an attempt to use some leftover money from an old fund towards the bailout - again stopped after complaints.
Basically we have to be eternally vigilant to make sure promises are kept and we are not being stitched up. That's not a partnership I want to be part of.
The other problem is that within the club we simply cannot be protected from the knock on consequences. If the EZ bring yet another recession on themselves with an excessively tight monetary structure we may not pay into the EZ bailouts directly but we will pay a larger share of the overall EU budget.
The Reverse Maastricht thing just might be a problem for the Brexiteers.
If the point of the exercise is to restore the "sovereign will of parliament", how exactly can they stop MPs voting to do a deal they personally don't like?
Doesn't bother me. So long as we leave the political Project, what deals Parliament assents to is up to them - and up to us as we can elect on the basis of implementable manifestos.
But it's more evidence that we will need a new election after a Leave vote.
As an aside, don't unions work by restricting the supply of labour?
So why have they done nothing while the party they support has enthusiastically flooded the country with cheap imported labour?
Surely not all union members are in the public sector?
TBH, I really don't understand this at all. The RMT and Baker's Union are pro-Brexit. Another big union in NI NIPSA is also for Leave. The rest IIRC are for Remain.
The RMT is the departed Bob Crow's Union. A very left wing Union which knows how to screw any government anytime. It is a bit silly of them to recommend BREXIT. A British government outside the EU could do lots of things to curtail them. Within EU, that is not so easy and probably impossible.
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
Your hero David Cameron and the party you support got elected on a manifesto to reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands.
Unless the referendum result is implemented in a way consistent with that, the Tories will be savagely punished at the next election.
Sterling volatility has surged to new heights, breaking levels not seen since the financial crisis as new opinion polls support evidence seen last week that the ‘Leave’ camp is nudging ahead in the Brexit referendum campaign.
What this suggestion by Kinnock minor does is acknowledge that leaving the EU does not necessarily mean leaving the Single Market. Which makes all the doom and gloom scenarios look a bit silly.
To be honest it is a sign how far things have changed that there is not more excitement arising from this poll. It just fits a consistent pattern of polling over the last week and in fact is older than pretty much any of them because of the way that TNS works.
Leave probably are 2-3% ahead at the moment and it does look as if the late breakers are more even than was once assumed. This is looking incredibly close and frankly impossible to call at the moment. Turnout will be all.
Of course, anyone who doesn't think that Remain still have one or two major rounds of heavy ammunition in their armoury is naive.
Our membership of the EU means everything to a lot of very influential people and they will do whatever they can, and say whatever needs to be said, over the next two weeks to try and claw this back.
This isn't over yet.
A week is a long time in politics - we have the two (or is it three) debates. Will be interesting if there is a swing in the polls towards the new 'winning side'.
But Remain now seem to have switched tactics and are 'stooping' to those of Leave. the question about the Remain 'major rounds of heavy ammunition' is probably moot since they will basically be variations on the theme that isn't working. The one big advantage Remain have is the unequivocal support of the largest broadcasting organisation in the UK.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
The final primaries are tomorrow, Hillary will likely win the nomination then but it would be farcical for Sanders to pull out now especially when he is so close in California
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Agreed. The trouble there is immigration.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
Dunno.
I don't see how it could be consistent with the leave campaign to enter into any agreement which prevented a restriction on immigration. If we can retain access to the Single Market but still limit the number of EU citizens entitled to come here I for one would be delighted.
You and Switzerland.
Would certainly throw a lot of balls up into the air.
Plus would most of the electorate immediately equate single market access with anything to do with immigration?
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
I see that Gazza is facing trial in Wolverhampton on June 17-20 for telling a joke deemed offensive which even the independent thinks is going too far and 'a wilful act of cruelty'
To be fair, if it is - say - 51 Leave / 49 Remain, then there is a fair argument that EEA/EFTA is the optimal outcome that will make everyone equally miserable
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Agreed. The trouble there is immigration.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
Dunno.
Although my point is that - made up numbers - 35% of people are voting to leave because of immigration. 16% are voting for other factors such as sovereignty, nostalgia, kicking that nice Mr Cameron, etc.
So - in this scenario - 65% might support EFTA with free movement and 35% would be unhappy. It's not immediately obvious that it's a betrayal. Politically very difficult though, if not impossible.
Impossible for the Conservative Party considering its immigration pledges in its last two manifestos.
it remains unclear why the SNP so strongly supports one Union (the EU) and not the other (the UK). Partly it jars because for so long the words “Union” and “Unionism” have been treated pejoratively, synonymous with Conservatism, imperialism and lots of other regressive “isms”, thus the sudden change of tone in praising the European Union – and there-fore European Unionism – sounds insincere.
Not sure I agree with that. There is a certain logic that small countries such as a putative independent Scotland are more secure within the umbrella of an organisation like the EU. I think the SNP recognise that if Scotland leaves the EU with the rest of the UK then it is yet another barrier to getting a yes vote making splitting from rUK just that bit scarier.
Given joining the EU would mean Euro and Schengen, at least the SNP's 'currency' and 'Border Control' questions would be answered for them......
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
We were told that we definitely wouldn't pay the extra £1.7bn requested by Brussels....
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility
It's not a fake. If we vote leave, we leave.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop foreigners coming.
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
If Leave were to win it would now be clearly with a mandate to stop quite so many foreigners coming quite so fast.
Today we've got Boris and Cameron making speeches - from 10am IIRC.
From reading the papers, there seems to be a concerted effort to take Boris out - all the name-calling et al.
I can't help but feel this is the wrong tactic. He's popular, and more trusted than his attackers. It looks nasty and negative. Given Remain has an image problem re scaremongering - they'd be better off trying to add some of Cameron's once famous sunshine.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
But there is no doubt that somewhere down the Euro road is Bailouts ... and, then, further centralisation/integration and movement towards a "fuller union" - a slow growth union.
What this suggestion by Kinnock minor does is acknowledge that leaving the EU does not necessarily mean leaving the Single Market. Which makes all the doom and gloom scenarios look a bit silly.
Except that is not the isolationist message the Brexiteers are peddling.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Apart from anything else, one of the reasons I've backed him for next Lab leader.
To be honest it is a sign how far things have changed that there is not more excitement arising from this poll. It just fits a consistent pattern of polling over the last week and in fact is older than pretty much any of them because of the way that TNS works.
Leave probably are 2-3% ahead at the moment and it does look as if the late breakers are more even than was once assumed. This is looking incredibly close and frankly impossible to call at the moment. Turnout will be all.
Of course, anyone who doesn't think that Remain still have one or two major rounds of heavy ammunition in their armoury is naive.
Our membership of the EU means everything to a lot of very influential people and they will do whatever they can, and say whatever needs to be said, over the next two weeks to try and claw this back.
This isn't over yet.
A week is a long time in politics - we have the two (or is it three) debates. Will be interesting if there is a swing in the polls towards the new 'winning side'.
But Remain now seem to have switched tactics and are 'stooping' to those of Leave. the question about the Remain 'major rounds of heavy ammunition' is probably moot since they will basically be variations on the theme that isn't working. The one big advantage Remain have is the unequivocal support of the largest broadcasting organisation in the UK.
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
That is where Laura K is missing the point. If the gullible British public can believe Turkey can join the EU, bypassing 28 vetoes and having first applied to join in 1987 then it can believe the bailouts as well.
Possibly the British public believe that Turkey will gain a right of residency for its citizens as part of a quid-pro-quo on migrants in much the same way as they will be getting visa free travel next month having fulfilled precisely none of the requirements that were put on them, or as part of a free trade deal, and that membership of the EU might not be a prerequisite.
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
" the argument is the terms of leaving will be decided by Parliament "
So if Parliament say we will leave and then basically spend four years doing a Chilcot, no one will notice? I still think Remain will win, but MPs are survivors when their own interests are at stake.
If leave were to win, it will be immigration wot won it, not economics. Any politicians claiming economic reasons for going their own way would fool no one.
I can see the EU offering concessions which Cameron would claim were marvellous and grounds for a re-run. A fig leaf perhaps, but his political career is run anyway.
While I am a Leave supporter and I am not in principle against EEA membership, I am angry at this. The Leave campaign have clearly said that any UK-EU deal would involve being outside of the single market. They may not have laid out the specific details of that, but on that point they have been consistent in recent weeks.
This story smacks both of desperation from Remain supporters, but most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
Apart from anything else, one of the reasons I've backed him for next Lab leader.
His ability to talk complete bollox with a straight face ?
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
We were told that we definitely wouldn't pay the extra £1.7bn requested by Brussels....
I suspect Cameron's tweeted outrage has been shared more over the last two weeks than it was at the time...
@bbclaurak: This is why Vote Leave's claims today are stretching it ...Reality Check: Will the UK pay for future euro bailouts? https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
But the UK government agreed a deal with the EU under which the European Central Bank - i.e. eurozone countries only - would cover any liabilities that would have fallen to the UK or other non-eurozone countries. This meant that the UK and other non-eurozone countries were exempted from any risk of losing money in this emergency loan to Greece
What she says is true, but it was only after the press screamed at Cameron. The original intention was that we were to be on the hook for our share.
I believe (IIRC) there was also an attempt to use some leftover money from an old fund towards the bailout - again stopped after complaints.
Basically we have to be eternally vigilant to make sure promises are kept and we are not being stitched up. That's not a partnership I want to be part of.
Comments
No idea if that's true or faux-olive branch. I suspect the latter given the personal insults of Mayor yesterday.
The original worked because it was unexpected, shocking and chimed with what people thought. The reaction of most to a new version would just be boredom and a shrug?
1) The swing is still within MOE
2) The swing is less than other swings previously recorded the other way and
3) It is an online poll.
(i.e. YouGov is +4 for Leave - outside MoE - but the swing is +2 to Leave - inside MoE)
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/remain-vote-means-soaring-population-jjk0x6mrf
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/charging-paul-gascoigne-with-racial-abuse-for-a-joke-is-a-wilful-act-of-cruelty-toward-a-man-a7066356.html
What better way to remind people of an unfree future if we stay in the EU just before the referendum. The trial will take place in Wolverhampton.
Goodbye 'Reason'.
It's "ignore the vote" time.
That should finish off his credibility - who next, Alex Salmond and Martin McGuiness?
Leave probably are 2-3% ahead at the moment and it does look as if the late breakers are more even than was once assumed. This is looking incredibly close and frankly impossible to call at the moment. Turnout will be all.
That's democracy folks.
For all the excitement please note.
Despite all the manic polling, there is a growing stolidity among the general population to vote Leave, which is firming up.
And despite all that, I still expect Remain to win by those 2 percentage points, that have not changed since the start of Cammo's sham negotiations.
He's also the first politician I ever remember asking voters to sack him!
(That's not why the MPs are muttering about this stupid idea, though)
Oh my, Farron's claiming security will be effected. Eamonn's face is a picture of Yeah, Right.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120
Stephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, said: "If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing.
"But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy? I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that."
But he warned there could be a constitutional crisis if MPs voted to keep Britain's borders open, something people would have rejected in the referendum.
"In a sense it's a lose-lose situation. I don't see how you untie that Gordian knot because you're looking at a massive economic crisis going down the track of the Canada model and a constitutional crisis going down the track of the Norway model."
In the eyes of many Conservatives he might has well have crossed the floor already.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/david-cameron-intensifies-tory-civil-war-by-uniting-with-leaders/
38 = 35 --38 -- 41
42 = 39 --42 -- 45
There is some overlap.
However - the MOE is not linear assuming Normal Distribution. The poll is more likely to be +- 1% rather than +2-+3 || -2 - -3.
The Berne gets ever more self-indulgent.
However, interesting that the Remain side are now telling us what they plan to do after they lose.
Whatever the result of the referendum, the next four years are going to be the most interesting politically of my lifetime!
"I see that Gazza is facing trial in Wolverhampton on June 17-20."
I'm not sure Gazza should be out on his own. So the CPS will be charging a seven-year-old with being a seven-year-old. A little cruel?
And I'm not sure that the Unions should be publicising the fact that they want to be in Europe to subvert the will of the British people. Yes, they are defending their workers rights but they might be better off helping to make Labour more electable.
Is that an editorial comment?
So why have they done nothing while the party they support has enthusiastically flooded the country with cheap imported labour?
Surely not all union members are in the public sector?
If the Brexiteers stood on an explicit platform of no EFTA/EEA, you might be right, but since they are standing on a platform of Unicorns and wishes, it is not unreasonable for elected representatives to interpret a result in the best possible light for their constituents
https://t.co/TbMdSAe4m1
In what sense one of the leaders of the Official LEAVE campaign would be 'in the pocket' of the party leader of a party with one MP (who he doesn't get on with) is beyond me.
If LEAVE win, Nige will go down the pub, and pop out now and then to congratulate the British people on the wisdom of their choice, then fade away when it gets messy.....
"it is not unreasonable for elected representatives to interpret a result in the best possible light for their constituents"
So you're saying that if Remain win, you'd be happy to see Parliament vote to leave because "We know best."
A Leave vote properly implemented would see Ukip wither. But if they don't take note, Mr Rentool might be right.
Might be able to get away with EFTA with *major* qualifications on free movement of workers.
Dunno.
If the point of the exercise is to restore the "sovereign will of parliament", how exactly can they stop MPs voting to do a deal they personally don't like?
it remains unclear why the SNP so strongly supports one Union (the EU) and not the other (the UK). Partly it jars because for so long the words “Union” and “Unionism” have been treated pejoratively, synonymous with Conservatism, imperialism and lots of other regressive “isms”, thus the sudden change of tone in praising the European Union – and there-fore European Unionism – sounds insincere.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14537766.David_Torrance__Why_SNP__39_s_support_for_European_Unionism_jars_with_its_rejection_of_UK_Unionism/
Their arrogance and condescension towards the voters is now becoming abundantly clear, in all its full glory.
But a 6 point spread is pretty bloody useless
If we vote leave, we leave, but the argument is the terms of leaving will be decided by Parliament (what Brexiteers claim they want to happen anyway), not by the Faragists
How can the Brexiteers claim they want to ignore the "sovereign will of Parliament" ?
Is that possible without also having freedom of movement?
Our membership of the EU means everything to a lot of very influential people and they will do whatever they can, and say whatever needs to be said, over the next two weeks to try and claw this back.
This isn't over yet.
What she says is true, but it was only after the press screamed at Cameron. The original intention was that we were to be on the hook for our share.
I believe (IIRC) there was also an attempt to use some leftover money from an old fund towards the bailout - again stopped after complaints.
Basically we have to be eternally vigilant to make sure promises are kept and we are not being stitched up. That's not a partnership I want to be part of.
You're not Gazza, are you?
A referendum seen to be a fake would lose all credibility for the Remain side. Ukip would soar at the next GE. All bets would be off.
So - in this scenario - 65% might support EFTA with free movement and 35% would be unhappy. It's not immediately obvious that it's a betrayal. Politically very difficult though, if not impossible.
In fact, he's going to make a further four speeches for Remain. I think he's saying exactly what he believes, and in this particular instance he's closer to most Labour voters than, say, me.
But the terms are not set by the Faragists.
It's true that if the public don't like the terms that are agreed, they can vote out the Government, but it's not clear they can vote out a majority of MPs who want the maximum economic benefit from the EU, even if that means free movement of people.
But it's more evidence that we will need a new election after a Leave vote.
https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
Not as many as some would have it.....
Unless the referendum result is implemented in a way consistent with that, the Tories will be savagely punished at the next election.
Whatever happened to the LibDems, by the way?
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/06/sterling-volatility-hits-new-heights-after-polls/?ftcamp=published_links/rss/markets/feed//product
But Remain now seem to have switched tactics and are 'stooping' to those of Leave. the question about the Remain 'major rounds of heavy ammunition' is probably moot since they will basically be variations on the theme that isn't working. The one big advantage Remain have is the unequivocal support of the largest broadcasting organisation in the UK.
http://news-watch.co.uk/bbc1-news-make-your-mind-up-features-strongly-favour-remain-side/
Would certainly throw a lot of balls up into the air.
Plus would most of the electorate immediately equate single market access with anything to do with immigration?
That may be a deplorable indictment of the British people, but Parliament should respect it.
From reading the papers, there seems to be a concerted effort to take Boris out - all the name-calling et al.
I can't help but feel this is the wrong tactic. He's popular, and more trusted than his attackers. It looks nasty and negative. Given Remain has an image problem re scaremongering - they'd be better off trying to add some of Cameron's once famous sunshine.
Alan Duncan came to Vote Leave before Xmas & begged to be made Chairman. We obv said no thx. Osborne bought him for a trinket instead
If the EU wanted to people to believe what they say about Turkey they should have insisted on every one of those requirements being met, not hand waved them away as a mere inconvenience, otherwise what else might get hand waved away as an inconvenience ?
" the argument is the terms of leaving will be decided by Parliament "
So if Parliament say we will leave and then basically spend four years doing a Chilcot, no one will notice? I still think Remain will win, but MPs are survivors when their own interests are at stake.
If leave were to win, it will be immigration wot won it, not economics. Any politicians claiming economic reasons for going their own way would fool no one.
I can see the EU offering concessions which Cameron would claim were marvellous and grounds for a re-run. A fig leaf perhaps, but his political career is run anyway.
While I am a Leave supporter and I am not in principle against EEA membership, I am angry at this. The Leave campaign have clearly said that any UK-EU deal would involve being outside of the single market. They may not have laid out the specific details of that, but on that point they have been consistent in recent weeks.
This story smacks both of desperation from Remain supporters, but most crucially is anti-democratic in sentiment. The Remain campaign need to smack it down quickly or I can see Leave running with it - 'they give you a vote, you decide, they ignore you - that's the elites for you'.
Next.