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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a danger of Leave peaking too soon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s a danger of Leave peaking too soon
Only the churlish would deny it’s been a very good week for Leave, especially in the opinion polls, I think that’s in part because Leave have been focussing heavily on immigration, and moved away from the economy, where they are perceived to behind Remain. With another poll out tomorrow with Leave ahead, the narrative is changing, and that might not be to Leave’s advantage.
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Shadow chancellor says the concept of an unconditional payment to all could prepare country for robotisation of the workforce
A universal basic income (UBI) is regarded by some on the left as a response to the robotisation of the workforce, which it is feared could replace lower-skilled jobs and exacerbate inequality.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/05/john-mcdonnell-labour-universal-basic-income-welfare-benefits-compass-report
I can't any problems with this at all...none at all...especially if we are still part of the EU. As for the "robotisation" of the work force, we already have it and and it is less likely to affect the low skilled, it will be middle skilled tasks where computers have made leap and bounds.
Computer AI can do lots of tasks that we currently deem skilled e.g. pretty good at translation, but we have hardly made any progress on enabling computers to "understand" simple tasks like cleaning and tidying, where things are not clear cut and require a lot of different understanding.
I would be more concerned if i was just a code monkey than a cleaner.
* May not have used those exact words.
Has there ever been a more openly anti-intellectual movement in British politics?
Switzerland 'rejects basic income', poll projections suggest
LEAVE are only going for it for 4 weeks.
Now which has the hardest job of maintaining their err election?
Finbarr S
The Home office visa policy is the problem, as he was released from prison less than five years ago and therefore technically is ineligible. Therefore some change of policy would be required.
Like I say, I wasn't too happy with the original conviction. But tweaking the rules at this moment might easily cause a row.
As their recent surge in fortunea only started a week ago and people were still writing them off then it seems a bit soon for them to peak.
All thats really happen is that online have won the online v phone polling battle and people are getting increasingly nervous that even online are underestimating it as increasing reports of labour leavers arrive.
Dosent help that the main thrust of Remains campaign (project fear) is now a public laughing stock and being openly mocked.
Whilst I still think Remain will win, my long term prediction of it being 60/40 now looks optimistic for Remain. Could happen, but it seems a bit closer.
I think it is entirely relevant if the ECB back the decision to grant a visa, it provides a level of cover as to why it [almost certainly] will be given. The simple fact is that the world of sport is never treated just like any normal business.
If the discretion that is allowed under the system is exercised to grant a visa then I think most people will brush that off as sport being sport.
It will be a very Sir Humphrey-style "brave" campaign that tries to run on a policy of excluding top level international sporting athletes. Especially given it has nothing to do with the EU anyway.
https://twitter.com/craigawoodhouse/status/739455361808224256
"Thanks to Dawdon Miners' Social Welfare Club in Co. Durham for showing their support to #VoteLeave and #TakeControl "
https://mobile.twitter.com/vote_leave/status/739447094726037504
Yes. Culture is based on values which beget behaviours. There is much literature on this.
Letting such states whether in Europe or Kuwait interfere with our internal affairs and strike down acts of parliament is another.
Cameron fighting with every fibre of his being.
Postponing PMQ's to send mp's up to Scotland.
All newspapers bar one.
The Queen.
Plenty more.
Ammunition missing in this fight.
Part-British, part-Scottish performance, so far
'Doesn't the policy give an element of discretion? Which is how this is to be decided? '
Why should there be any discretion for a criminal that trashed an entire test series.
Cnut or Canute are generally accepted spellings. Kanut just looks wrong, like Boudiseeya.
This period would be used to hammer out a permanent settlement.
while you could define a culture in the way that you do, I can't see that there's any reason to consider that the only definition. Can you really say that a culture is anything more than a kind of behaviour?
The reason I like the Swiss system is that it forces voters to think about proposals in detail. The public service referendum had a large polling lead initially and was supported by all the major parties, but on closer study of the proposals people felt that there wasn't any reason to mess with the existing services. Swiss voters are not predictably right- or left-wing, but they are cautious about change.
I'm not impressed that there are still apparently just over 20 who are undecided. This says a lot about them, if they haven't made their minds up yet. Perhaps the ducking stool, or some water-boarding might help!
The thing is the Brexit crowd are completely clueless about how to leave, when to leave and what the hell happens after they vote out.
Make it up as they go along chumps....
Apart from that, brilliant plan
Plenty of time for some gentle persuasion by the Germans and others methinks, equally plenty of time for some changes of mind on our part.
Equally it should be said, plenty of time for the UK to set up its own trade deals across the world.
Overall this timescale probably helps LEAVE, since it provides plenty of wriggle room for us to remain within the EU if, by magic, it were to reform and/or we were able to secure a better deal.
It just looks like internal point scoring by frustrated REMAIN folk in Downing street (such as Osborne and Cameron) watching as their campaign falls apart. A toddler's temper tantrum.
I some how don't think this collapse has anything to do with any dodgy Russians...
"Why have we not left yet?"
@Philip_Thompson I think you are optimistic. But you could be right. Stuart Broad - who scored his only Test century as a result of Amir's no-ball - will be interesting to watch...
Mr. Eagles, if you anticipate this tennis match lasting another decade and a half or so, yes.
As for the second part, that is for those with the discretion to decide. I would say because he has served his sentence and the ECB is willing to play against him and are backing him to come over - if the ECB were saying "no, life ban is appropriate" then I think he'd be refused entry.
I don't buy this view that because of advantages in computers / robots / AI everybody will be out of job, rather jobs will change, just as they have over history. New sectors will open up. Who would have predicted 50 years the vast numbers of people we would require to work keeping the internet working.
AI / computer vision is something I know a lot about and we aren't anywhere near solving so many of things that humans do with ease. The AI we are seeing advances in at the moment is based upon theory that is actually 30 years old, and still have some significant limitations.
Not to say it isn't exciting and will automate jobs, but we are a long way off having general purpose solutions.
And once you get into societal culture, the field is unmanageable, with many competing theories as one would expect when people from the Arts, Social Sciences and empirical sciences try to work in as amorphous and complex an issue as culture.
However, at least in my field, the best working definition of culture is 'the way we do things around here'. So you are right that there is indeed a strong correlation between culture and behaviour. But the linkage is that culture is built on a limited number of shared values, and it is these shared values that result in autonomous decision-makers individually making decisions which result in behaviours which are consistent with the culture across the whole organization, without need for top-down micromanagement.
The behaviourists would add that the culture provides the feedback mechanisms for behaviours - if accepted behaviours receive positive feedback, they will be repeated, if not they will over time be extinguished. If unacceptable behaviours receive negative feedback, they will be discontinued, but what they are replaced with is uncertain unless there is a strong mechanism for positive feedback of desired behaviours.
Thus behaviours are the result of culture, not the other way around.
Now is the time for each side to really just say whatever comes into their minds, however stupid it appears to people like ourselves.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
You're such a sycophant that you're even copying David Cameron's mistakes.
the thing that immedaitaely springs to mind from yr description tho is that people can belong to many types of groups simultaneously, and the values they will share with other members depend on the group? So trying to generalize about which national groups are closer to each other could be a pretty tricky thing, and maybe not very rewarding in the end?
Anyway, good night. woud be good to hear more anon. cheers
'There should be an element of discretion because potentially ultimately many hundreds of millions of pounds are at stake so this should be decided at the highest level and not in advance by some arbitary rule that ignores the specifics of the case.'
Have I missed something ? Why are hundreds of millions of pounds at stake on whether a convicted criminal should be allowed to play having already trashed a previous Test series ?
If we invoke Article 50 we negotiate an agreement for withdrawal.
It does not say we negotiate an agreement to negotiate an agreement
If a country does not honour a test series/tour they have agree to play, then the other side can sue and the ICC can fine them.
Your posts are going to look so incredibly stupid if Remain win but then again I expect you will disappear from the site as quickly as you arrived if that happens.
It is up to the ICB to decide if it was meant to be a lifetime ban, they have decided against.
A very narrow win for Remain unless ... a terrorist atrocity or Juncker saying something silly. The latter a certainty, but it may not be reported.
A temporary agreement that sees us outside the EU as soon as possible but in an EEA/EFTA-style agreement until the final agreement is reached matches this requirement. Once we have given notice of our intent to withdraw it is in the best interests of all parties to both see an agreement ASAP and see it implemented and us outside ASAP.