Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
Interesting theory.
I don't buy it, I genuinely think the country is at heart at least a bit Eurosceptic. If not now and a tepid win, then:
A. There will be a demand for another referendum soon.
B. The EU will do something daft that would precipitate it anyway.
Picture it: two days before the vote a flotilla of boats capsizes in the Channel and dozens drown. Dead babies are washed up on the Kentish shingle. It turns out many are Kosovans and Albanians happily shooed across the frontiers by Schengen...
I will stop there, because it is distasteful to go further.
But it is easy to see how this ongoing news story could affect the referendum.
It hurts remain more than "normal" refugee/migrant smuggling stories because those are normally North African or Syrian, the people being smuggled at the moment are Albanian and Kosovan. Both of those nations are in Europe, though not in the EU, they won't be seen as some kind of persecuted refugee, they will be seen as a bunch of chancers who are just using the current crisis to try and come here to seek economic gain, the EU's porous border is going to be under the spotlight again.
Yep. It all works for Leave perfectly. Then when we've voted for Brexit the Tories who take over from Dave are going to have to work with the reality that the cuts to the navy they voted for mean we have no way of preventing people getting in and the French have absolutely no incentive to stop them trying.
The bit that people making this argument always omit is that our relationship with the EU is mutual. Yes, any of them can come here but, by the same token, any of us can go there. It's freedom of movement, not just immigration. And it's a far stretch of the imagination to describe this as isolationist!
Of course it is isolationist. We exclude 93% of the world's population not on the basis of whether or not they have anything to offer our country but just because they don't come from a particular political grouping. It is ridiculous, just like everything else about the EU.
Why do you insist on ignoring the fact that freedom of movement also gives all of us the right to live and work in any EU country? It's not all about immigration. How exactly is taking away that right supposed to make the UK less isolationist?
Each country should be able to determine its immigration policy based on what serves its own needs best. I certainly don't consider Australia isolationist, nor Canada. Both have immigration policies based on what is in the best interest of their economies and their ability to absorb new population. They have high rates of migration because that is what they need but they get the chance to pick the people they want. I fail to see what is so bad about that policy? It is certainly better than the current policy we have of white Europeans good, non whites from the rest of the world bad.
You continue to studiously ignore my point that the same freedom of movement policy that allows all EU citizens to come here also allows all UK citizens to live in any EU country. Removing the right of UK citizens to settle in any of the other 27 EU states cannot be rationally described as an anti-isolationist policy. Once again: freedom of movement is not all about immigration; it's also about the giving UK citizens the freedom to emigrate. Why are you so reluctant to acknowledge this?
Look put simply who the hell wants to emigrate to Romania? The reverse doesn't apply.
The EU is not just Romania. Some 1.2 million Brits are currently exercising their right to settle in other EU countries.
So not the point or vote driver.
What? The point is that UK citizens currently have the right to settle in any EU country. The policies favoured by Leave will remove that right. Somehow, though, removing our right to settle in 27 countries is supposed to give us more freedom and and be anti-isolationist. Sounds like doublespeak to me.
This poll is a big move - yet Betfair has only gone from around 5.2 (last night) to 4.7 now.
Of course it's only one poll and I think the Crosby article is a bit more positive for Remain than the headline poll numbers.
In particular the Wisdom Index is still very heavily expecting a Remain win - and history suggests the Wisdom Index is usually a good pointer - it's not normally wrong in a big way.
Suspect conclusion may therefore be that Wisdom Index is pointing to an expectation that some people will bottle it at the last minute - ie in order to win, Leave needs to actually be about 3% ahead on the night before voting day.
The last ICM WI from May 2015
ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index” – respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score – continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%, all figures that are unchanged from the provisional data.
While the Tory/Lab figures look reasonable, the LD/UKIP ones are horrendous.
6% swing from left to right at the real election.
Thanks.
So it was better on the Con/Lab than most polls.
Re LD and UKIP - one issue is that the Wisdom Index question gave the 2010 actual GE result - that may well have pushed the LD score higher and UKIP lower - as people may have been reluctant to forecast really massive changes from 2010.
So all in all I think the Wisdom is a useful pointer.
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
I've yet to speak to anybody that's backing REMAIN... A few "undecided" including my 90 year old granny both generally it's LEAVE all the way in my social circle
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
No one here has said it's the Gold standard. I for one think their polls are a steaming pile of the proverbial. Therefore, I see nothing here for me as a Leaver to get excited about at this point.
I also totally disagree that Leave need to push on immigration, which surely must be factored in. It seems to me that SIR Lynton is unlikely to be giving free advice to Leave, and that this is perhaps a strategy to flush Leave out as a baying crowd of migrant haters. It was very much the strategy that they used against UKIP in the GE.
Picture it: two days before the vote a flotilla of boats capsizes in the Channel and dozens drown. Dead babies are washed up on the Kentish shingle. It turns out many are Kosovans and Albanians happily shooed across the frontiers by Schengen...
I will stop there, because it is distasteful to go further.
But it is easy to see how this ongoing news story could affect the referendum.
It hurts remain more than "normal" refugee/migrant smuggling stories because those are normally North African or Syrian, the people being smuggled at the moment are Albanian and Kosovan. Both of those nations are in Europe, though not in the EU, they won't be seen as some kind of persecuted refugee, they will be seen as a bunch of chancers who are just using the current crisis to try and come here to seek economic gain, the EU's porous border is going to be under the spotlight again.
Yep. It all works for Leave perfectly. Then when we've voted for Brexit the Tories who take over from Dave are going to have to work with the reality that the cuts to the navy they voted for mean we have no way of preventing people getting in and the French have absolutely no incentive to stop them trying.
If anything the French would be actively encouraging it to happen because then it becomes our problem, look at how we had to bribe them to stop exporting migrants from Calais.
Picture it: two days before the vote a flotilla of boats capsizes in the Channel and dozens drown. Dead babies are washed up on the Kentish shingle. It turns out many are Kosovans and Albanians happily shooed across the frontiers by Schengen...
I will stop there, because it is distasteful to go further.
But it is easy to see how this ongoing news story could affect the referendum.
It hurts remain more than "normal" refugee/migrant smuggling stories because those are normally North African or Syrian, the people being smuggled at the moment are Albanian and Kosovan. Both of those nations are in Europe, though not in the EU, they won't be seen as some kind of persecuted refugee, they will be seen as a bunch of chancers who are just using the current crisis to try and come here to seek economic gain, the EU's porous border is going to be under the spotlight again.
Yep. It all works for Leave perfectly. Then when we've voted for Brexit the Tories who take over from Dave are going to have to work with the reality that the cuts to the navy they voted for mean we have no way of preventing people getting in and the French have absolutely no incentive to stop them trying.
If anything the French would be actively encouraging it to happen because then it becomes our problem, look at how we had to bribe them to stop exporting migrants from Calais.
Absolutely - the French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in. Defence spending is going to have to rise pretty considerably post-Brexit.
Just think about that for a moment - a tax ID for everyone within the EU along with the federalist wet dream of harmonised uncompetitive corporation taxes across the EU area. Like any area in decline, the EU is increasingly adopting a bunker mentality and closing itself off from the outside world. The long term cycles are definitively pointing to the rise of Asia - we in Britain must lead the way and re-orientate ourself back to the great outside world beyond the insular confines of the EU.
Just think about that for a moment - a tax ID for everyone within the EU along with the federalist wet dream of harmonised uncompetitive corporation taxes across the EU area. Like any area in decline, the EU is increasingly adopting a bunker mentality and closing itself off from the outside world. The long term cycles are definitively pointing to the rise of Asia - we in Britain must lead the way and re-orientate ourself back to the great outside world beyond the insular confines of the EU.
It is on their radar. It needs to be shouted about though.
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Absolutely not - I favour the higher skilled migrant wherever they come from.
Just think about that for a moment - a tax ID for everyone within the EU along with the federalist wet dream of harmonised uncompetitive corporation taxes across the EU area. Like any area in decline, the EU is increasingly adopting a bunker mentality and closing itself off from the outside world. The long term cycles are definitively pointing to the rise of Asia - we in Britain must lead the way and re-orientate ourself back to the great outside world beyond the insular confines of the EU.
How is a tax ID closing itself off from the outside world. Osborne is already able to kowtow to Chinese Communism within the EU.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Still having trouble seeing which way it will go.
Kunsberg said polls show that there are 10 million enthusiastic leavers with only 5 million enthusiastic remainsers.
I think that is key.
I also know that firm remainers are being turned towards leave by the remain campaign rather than the leave one. Just like in Scotland.
Indeed but the status quo in Scotland still held on in the end, even if it was given a fright
The EU's terrible because it wants to help states check who is claiming benefits in multiple jurisdictions, to control the supposed problems of immigration that LEAVE allegedly cares about while voting for governments that double net inward migration in the last 3 years, oh it's awful.
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
I've yet to speak to anybody that's backing REMAIN... A few "undecided" including my 90 year old granny both generally it's LEAVE all the way in my social circle
[Means nothing though of course]
I've got some Facebook friends quite vocal about supporting Remain, but they haven't been getting many likes from what I've been seeing.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Will the WWCs really vote REMAIN? I'm not hearing that.
Middle class lefties yes of course, but they are not the majority of Labour voters, even now.
The WWC whether UKIP, Tory or Labour will vote Leave, middle-class LD and Labour voters and to a lesser extent middle-class Tories will vote Remain
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Absolutely not - I favour the higher skilled migrant wherever they come from.
But we need unskilled migrants. Or would you force the unemployed in, say, the NE to relocate in order to fill the job vacancies that exist in London and the SE?
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Just think about that for a moment - a tax ID for everyone within the EU along with the federalist wet dream of harmonised uncompetitive corporation taxes across the EU area. Like any area in decline, the EU is increasingly adopting a bunker mentality and closing itself off from the outside world. The long term cycles are definitively pointing to the rise of Asia - we in Britain must lead the way and re-orientate ourself back to the great outside world beyond the insular confines of the EU.
How is a tax ID closing itself off from the outside world. Osborne is already able to kowtow to Chinese Communism within the EU.
Its going to lead to an EU wide corporation tax!..........and it will be set for the benefit of those countries that don't want others to undercut them eg France. We've had zero progress on getting the EU common external tariff reduced, and as for CAP reform to enable 3rd world countries to export food to the EU - well you can forget that thanks to the lobbying of French farmers in particular. That's some of the ways in which the EU is acting in an incredibly insular manner. And don't get me started on the madness of the common fisheries policy which has been a disaster. You only need look at the example of Iceland which has managed its fish stocks 100 times better than the EU area to see the complete failure of the CFP.
You continue to studiously ignore my point that the same freedom of movement policy that allows all EU citizens to come here also allows all UK citizens to live in any EU country. Removing the right of UK citizens to settle in any of the other 27 EU states cannot be rationally described as an anti-isolationist policy. Once again: freedom of movement is not all about immigration; it's also about the giving UK citizens the freedom to emigrate. Why are you so reluctant to acknowledge this?
We would not be removing any rights for UK citizens to live in any EU country. It would be up to the EU to decide what policy they wish to follow. If they wish to remain an isolationist backwater it would be their loss. We would be looking to the rest of the world.
You seem to want to try to blame the UK for what would be an entirely EU decision. I mean I know you are a fairly fanatical Europhile but that really is going too far.
Look put simply who the hell wants to emigrate to Romania? The reverse doesn't apply.
The EU is not just Romania. Some 1.2 million Brits are currently exercising their right to settle in other EU countries.
So not the point or vote driver.
What? The point is that UK citizens currently have the right to settle in any EU country. The policies favoured by Leave will remove that right. Somehow, though, removing our right to settle in 27 countries is supposed to give us more freedom and and be anti-isolationist. Sounds like doublespeak to me.
The point is that most of those 27 countries are countries few Brits would want to settle in, and the more the EU expands, the truer that is, with most of the countries people do move to (Spain, France, Ireland) having joined before or at the same time as us, with most of the countries joining in the last 15 years being ones which attract few Brits, but to whose citizens Britain appears to be very attractive.
In net migration and aspiration terms, we'd be better off with a freer movement arrangement with prosperous English-speaking countries. Remaining in the EU means an ever-tighter migration policy with regard to countries outside it, and it's foolish to believe they don't respond in kind. Or we should have vetoed the former Communist countries until an arrangement not including full free movement was reached.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Old Top Gear was tired, about 1 or 2 seasons from being cancelled IMO. Clarkson hit upon a lucky way out just in time. Last night was okay, mainly awkward because it was different. Reminded me of series one of Top Gear. Needs to find its own voice.
Otherwise in politics feeling quite LEAVEy at the moment. Democratic deficit in EU potentially bigger risk than economic hit IMO. Probably will default to REMAIN, but can't deny feelings are there.
A possible Labour leave from you? In Horsham? Wow.
The Remain campaign has had more than a hint of "nanny knows best" and that the population should not be stupid and do as it's told. Democracy doesn't work that way. Or at least it shouldn't. The electorate needs to assert itself, somehow.
The undesirability of the leaders of the 'Leave' campaign trumps everything else for me. If they want 'out' then there's something wrong with 'out'. As for David's header....when you start accusing the BBC of bias it just reminds me what "taking control" means in the hands of the Leavers and why I want nothing to do with it.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Still having trouble seeing which way it will go.
Kunsberg said polls show that there are 10 million enthusiastic leavers with only 5 million enthusiastic remainsers.
I think that is key.
I also know that firm remainers are being turned towards leave by the remain campaign rather than the leave one. Just like in Scotland.
Indeed but the status quo in Scotland still held on in the end, even if it was given a fright
How many times did Leave lead, or achieve a tie, in the Sindy polls?
The SIndy In campaign started will a big buffer and still managed to give itself a fright.
Leave has never had the buffer and has been tied or behind on many occasions in the last six years.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly.
Evening Bilge...
Mother always said the "Channel Tunnel" was the moment the Blessed Margaret started losing the Plot...
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Still having trouble seeing which way it will go.
Kunsberg said polls show that there are 10 million enthusiastic leavers with only 5 million enthusiastic remainsers.
I think that is key.
I also know that firm remainers are being turned towards leave by the remain campaign rather than the leave one. Just like in Scotland.
Indeed but the status quo in Scotland still held on in the end, even if it was given a fright
It did. After the vow. How are we going to get one of those?
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
Blimey, passport and visa checks at ports too difficult for you?
Look put simply who the hell wants to emigrate to Romania? The reverse doesn't apply.
The EU is not just Romania. Some 1.2 million Brits are currently exercising their right to settle in other EU countries.
So not the point or vote driver.
What? The point is that UK citizens currently have the right to settle in any EU country. The policies favoured by Leave will remove that right. Somehow, though, removing our right to settle in 27 countries is supposed to give us more freedom and and be anti-isolationist. Sounds like doublespeak to me.
The point is that most of those 27 countries are countries few Brits would want to settle in, and the more the EU expands, the truer that is, with most of the countries people do move to (Spain, France, Ireland) having joined before or at the same time as us, with most of the countries joining in the last 15 years being ones which attract few Brits, but to whose citizens Britain appears to be very attractive.
In net migration and aspiration terms, we'd be better off with a freer movement arrangement with prosperous English-speaking countries. Remaining in the EU means an ever-tighter migration policy with regard to countries outside it, and it's foolish to believe they don't respond in kind. Or we should have vetoed the former Communist countries until an arrangement not including full free movement was reached.
Why would English speaking countries change their immigration policies to suit us? Would pensioners retiring to The Costas really fancy schlepping to Australia instead and what benefit would the Aussies get from taking them?
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Still having trouble seeing which way it will go.
Kunsberg said polls show that there are 10 million enthusiastic leavers with only 5 million enthusiastic remainsers.
I think that is key.
I also know that firm remainers are being turned towards leave by the remain campaign rather than the leave one. Just like in Scotland.
Indeed but the status quo in Scotland still held on in the end, even if it was given a fright
How many times did Leave lead, or achieve a tie, in the Sindy polls?
The SIndy In campaign started will a big buffer and still managed to give itself a fright.
Leave has never had the buffer and has regularly been tied or behind on many occasions in the last six years.
Leave did lead once or twice in Sindy polls but I would agree EU ref will be tighter, 52 48 Remain or thereabouts
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Absolutely not - I favour the higher skilled migrant wherever they come from.
But we need unskilled migrants. Or would you force the unemployed in, say, the NE to relocate in order to fill the job vacancies that exist in London and the SE?
There's been a collapse in the demand for unskilled labour over the past 30 or 40 years in the West! Skilled migrants bring an awful lot to this country in non-economic benefits as well as economic - demographically yes we need more people particularly in the 25-40 year old bracket where economic growth and dynamism comes from, but I don't see the need to have lots of unskilled migrants here.
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Absolutely not - I favour the higher skilled migrant wherever they come from.
But we need unskilled migrants. Or would you force the unemployed in, say, the NE to relocate in order to fill the job vacancies that exist in London and the SE?
What used to happen is the cost to hire unskilled labour went up.
Then the employer could either make themselves more efficient of charge higher prices.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
Blimey, passport and visa checks at ports too difficult for you?
Ever heard of the Irish sea?
Once someone is on UK soil they are our problem. The Irish Sea is not a border that currently requires passport and visa checks to cross. If you need a passport to enter the UK mainland from Northern Ireland you are creating an internal frontier and creating two classes of British citizen.
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Absolutely not - I favour the higher skilled migrant wherever they come from.
But we need unskilled migrants. Or would you force the unemployed in, say, the NE to relocate in order to fill the job vacancies that exist in London and the SE?
What used to happen is the cost to hire unskilled labour went up.
Then the employer could either make themselves more efficient of charge higher prices.
At the moment they only need to pay the minimum.
As long as the UK trades with the rest of the world, Brexit will make no difference to the prices.
You might have fewer of the "unskilled immigrant" category in rural areas, less British jams/agricultural produce, and more "skilled immigrants" looking for tech jobs and driving up living costs in London. Because let's face it, if you really want skilled immigrants then you have to accept that they will be moving to places that are already in huge demand from people with the same skills.
You continue to studiously ignore my point that the same freedom of movement policy that allows all EU citizens to come here also allows all UK citizens to live in any EU country. Removing the right of UK citizens to settle in any of the other 27 EU states cannot be rationally described as an anti-isolationist policy. Once again: freedom of movement is not all about immigration; it's also about the giving UK citizens the freedom to emigrate. Why are you so reluctant to acknowledge this?
We would not be removing any rights for UK citizens to live in any EU country. It would be up to the EU to decide what policy they wish to follow. If they wish to remain an isolationist backwater it would be their loss. We would be looking to the rest of the world.
You seem to want to try to blame the UK for what would be an entirely EU decision. I mean I know you are a fairly fanatical Europhile but that really is going too far.
If we remove the freedom of EU citizens to settle in the UK, we can hardly expect the EU countries to continue to allow UK citizens the freedom to settle in their countries. It's not rocket science.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly.
Evening Bilge...
Mother always said the "Channel Tunnel" was the moment the Blessed Margaret started losing the Plot...
Well, to be fair, she may have gone mad, but not the full Ken surely?
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly.
Evening Bilge...
Mother always said the "Channel Tunnel" was the moment the Blessed Margaret started losing the Plot...
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
That's the Casino Royale theory: that the Brits deep down want to give the EU a terrible scare, and put Brussels on notice, but they don't want to leave - not quite yet. So the ideal result is 50.1% REMAIN, 49.9% LEAVE, cueing up another referendum within a decade maximum, or less, if the EU does anything shifty.
In my heart of hearts such a result might suit me, too, even though I am very likely to vote OUT.
I like Casino's theory, it makes strange sense
It does make sense, and on that bombshell, goodnight
Tonight on PB LEAVE, if the French don't police the UK's seas on behalf of the Royal Navy, close the Channel Tunnel!
I see REMAIN have been reduced to gibbering wrecks on PB tonight.
Ships leaving French points should have their passengers checked. Ships not with proper clearance should be intercepted by the UK coastguard.
Passengers boarding Eurostar should have the proper clearances.
Too difficult for you? Or rattled?
The French will decide what the proper checks are for people leaving France. Thanks to Tory cuts the Royal Navy and the coastguard are severely depleted and not capable of effectively policing the Channel.
Leave looks like it is going to win, thanks in no small part to the mendacity of Dave and George. But the Tory Leavers - who supported all that the government did until a couple of months ago - are soon going to have to confront reality.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly.
Evening Bilge...
Mother always said the "Channel Tunnel" was the moment the Blessed Margaret started losing the Plot...
The reason my 90 years old granny is undecided is that her late husband was staunchly for IN in '75 due to Maggie being for "IN" (my grandfather was a big fan of the Blessed Margaret)
The old girl came to her senses in the end though (Maggie that is not my granny)
Tonight on PB LEAVE, if the French don't police the UK's seas on behalf of the Royal Navy, close the Channel Tunnel!
I see REMAIN have been reduced to gibbering wrecks on PB tonight.
Ships leaving French points should have their passengers checked. Ships not with proper clearance should be intercepted by the UK coastguard.
Passengers boarding Eurostar should have the proper clearances.
Too difficult for you? Or rattled?
Personally, I would have accused myself of uninspired parody, by not embellishing the words "close the Channel Tunnel" in a post mocking closing the Channel Tunnel with some humour. Then again, expecting good faith argument from an account set up as a personal chortle attack against a REMAIN commenter is probably Canute's-advisors levels of unquenchable ambition.
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
Any victory for Remain will be taken in Brussels a an endorsement of their continued unification.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Still having trouble seeing which way it will go.
Kunsberg said polls show that there are 10 million enthusiastic leavers with only 5 million enthusiastic remainsers.
I think that is key.
I also know that firm remainers are being turned towards leave by the remain campaign rather than the leave one. Just like in Scotland.
Indeed but the status quo in Scotland still held on in the end, even if it was given a fright
It did. After the vow. How are we going to get one of those?
Remain was going to win either way with or without the vow. A rogue poll may have given the frighteners but the result should not have shocked anybody.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
Blimey, passport and visa checks at ports too difficult for you?
Ever heard of the Irish sea?
Once someone is on UK soil they are our problem. The Irish Sea is not a border that currently requires passport and visa checks to cross. If you need a passport to enter the UK mainland from Northern Ireland you are creating an internal frontier and creating two classes of British citizen.
You really are rattled.
What's to stop us imposing such on Brexit? Nothing.
Creating an internal frontier? Well, duh. There were many checks on people flying to N.Ireland during the Troubles.
As for creating two classes of citizens? Poppycock. The citizens of Northern Ireland will be free to move around and settle anywhere within Britain as per now.
Incidentally, how do countries like France (French Guiana), USA (Alaska) and Italy (enclave in Switzerland) manage? Quite fine it seems.
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
Any victory for Remain will be taken in Brussels a an endorsement of their continued unification.
Wouldn't a Leave victory have much the same effect in Brussels?
You continue to studiously ignore my point that the same freedom of movement policy that allows all EU citizens to come here also allows all UK citizens to live in any EU country. Removing the right of UK citizens to settle in any of the other 27 EU states cannot be rationally described as an anti-isolationist policy. Once again: freedom of movement is not all about immigration; it's also about the giving UK citizens the freedom to emigrate. Why are you so reluctant to acknowledge this?
We would not be removing any rights for UK citizens to live in any EU country. It would be up to the EU to decide what policy they wish to follow. If they wish to remain an isolationist backwater it would be their loss. We would be looking to the rest of the world.
You seem to want to try to blame the UK for what would be an entirely EU decision. I mean I know you are a fairly fanatical Europhile but that really is going too far.
If we remove the freedom of EU citizens to settle in the UK, we can hardly expect the EU countries to continue to allow UK citizens the freedom to settle in their countries. It's not rocket science.
No but it is also not us being isolationist. Normalising immigration rules with the other 93% of the world so they are treated as equals with the other EU states can in no way be considered isolationist, except perhaps in some strange Eurofanatic world.
Tonight on PB LEAVE, if the French don't police the UK's seas on behalf of the Royal Navy, close the Channel Tunnel!
I see REMAIN have been reduced to gibbering wrecks on PB tonight.
Ships leaving French points should have their passengers checked. Ships not with proper clearance should be intercepted by the UK coastguard.
Passengers boarding Eurostar should have the proper clearances.
Too difficult for you? Or rattled?
The French will decide what the proper checks are for people leaving France. Thanks to Tory cuts the Royal Navy and the coastguard are severely depleted and not capable of effectively policing the Channel.
Leave looks like it is going to win, thanks in no small part to the mendacity of Dave and George. But the Tory Leavers - who supported all that the government did until a couple of months ago - are soon going to have to confront reality.
Now that pair want Labour to help clean up their mess, after they spent the last six years kicking Labour around. Labour's response seems to be ... "unprintable". Sorry Dave, your problem, now you might be the greatest inadvertent destroyer of your political cause in UK politics since... well, actually, just since Nick Clegg, really.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
Blimey, passport and visa checks at ports too difficult for you?
Ever heard of the Irish sea?
Once someone is on UK soil they are our problem. The Irish Sea is not a border that currently requires passport and visa checks to cross. If you need a passport to enter the UK mainland from Northern Ireland you are creating an internal frontier and creating two classes of British citizen.
We've had this discussion.
If you get on a plane in the UK, regardless of its destination, you need sufficient ID, for preference a passport to prove who you are.
The same can easily apply to boats. Northern Ireland is not connected to the mainland by a bridge or tunnel,
Tonight on PB LEAVE, if the French don't police the UK's seas on behalf of the Royal Navy, close the Channel Tunnel!
I see REMAIN have been reduced to gibbering wrecks on PB tonight.
Ships leaving French points should have their passengers checked. Ships not with proper clearance should be intercepted by the UK coastguard.
Passengers boarding Eurostar should have the proper clearances.
Too difficult for you? Or rattled?
Personally, I would have accused myself of uninspired parody, by not embellishing the words "close the Channel Tunnel" in a post mocking closing the Channel Tunnel with some humour. Then again, expecting good faith argument from an account set up as a personal chortle attack against a REMAIN commenter is probably Canute's-advisors levels of unquenchable ambition.
Can I have this translated into English? It seems to bear no relation to the argument going on here.
Look put simply who the hell wants to emigrate to Romania? The reverse doesn't apply.
The EU is not just Romania. Some 1.2 million Brits are currently exercising their right to settle in other EU countries.
So not the point or vote driver.
What? The point is that UK citizens currently have the right to settle in any EU country. The policies favoured by Leave will remove that right. Somehow, though, removing our right to settle in 27 countries is supposed to give us more freedom and and be anti-isolationist. Sounds like doublespeak to me.
The point is that most of those 27 countries are countries few Brits would want to settle in, and the more the EU expands, the truer that is, with most of the countries people do move to (Spain, France, Ireland) having joined before or at the same time as us, with most of the countries joining in the last 15 years being ones which attract few Brits, but to whose citizens Britain appears to be very attractive.
In net migration and aspiration terms, we'd be better off with a freer movement arrangement with prosperous English-speaking countries. Remaining in the EU means an ever-tighter migration policy with regard to countries outside it, and it's foolish to believe they don't respond in kind. Or we should have vetoed the former Communist countries until an arrangement not including full free movement was reached.
Why would English speaking countries change their immigration policies to suit us? Would pensioners retiring to The Costas really fancy schlepping to Australia instead and what benefit would the Aussies get from taking them?
Tonight on PB LEAVE, if the French don't police the UK's seas on behalf of the Royal Navy, close the Channel Tunnel!
I see REMAIN have been reduced to gibbering wrecks on PB tonight.
Ships leaving French points should have their passengers checked. Ships not with proper clearance should be intercepted by the UK coastguard.
Passengers boarding Eurostar should have the proper clearances.
Too difficult for you? Or rattled?
The French will decide what the proper checks are for people leaving France. Thanks to Tory cuts the Royal Navy and the coastguard are severely depleted and not capable of effectively policing the Channel.
Leave looks like it is going to win, thanks in no small part to the mendacity of Dave and George. But the Tory Leavers - who supported all that the government did until a couple of months ago - are soon going to have to confront reality.
I'm not a Tory.
The coastguard can be increased.
And airlines are held responsible for their passengers. Why not ferry companies?
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
To be fair to PB, most of the Leave comments so far have been to treat with caution.
Indeed, that's why I said twitter. I think we all know not to get overexcited by just one poll.
When are the next polls out? I do sense a movement to leave, in particular Osborne's arranged interview with Andrew Neil which he wouldn't risk ordinarily. I can't wait for Neil to tear shreds out of the ridiculous economic scare stories. That's been the biggest mistake of the remain campaign so far, and I don't sense that they're about to change tack, for taming down the scare stories would be an admission of failure all the same.
Anecdote alert - got talking to someone yesterday ranting and raving about immigration destroying the fabric of this country and planning on voting remain as the lesser of two evils! Think I managed to persuade him to back leave at the end of our conversation, although I stressed the unfairness of favouring unskilled EU immigrants over highly skilled non-EU migrants - my miniscule contribution to the leave campaign!
Would you favour unskilled Non-EU migrants over EU ones?
Absolutely not - I favour the higher skilled migrant wherever they come from.
But we need unskilled migrants. Or would you force the unemployed in, say, the NE to relocate in order to fill the job vacancies that exist in London and the SE?
What used to happen is the cost to hire unskilled labour went up.
Then the employer could either make themselves more efficient of charge higher prices.
At the moment they only need to pay the minimum.
As long as the UK trades with the rest of the world, Brexit will make no difference to the prices.
You might have fewer of the "unskilled immigrant" category in rural areas, less British jams/agricultural produce, and more "skilled immigrants" looking for tech jobs and driving up living costs in London. Because let's face it, if you really want skilled immigrants then you have to accept that they will be moving to places that are already in huge demand from people with the same skills.
Eastern EU migration made a huge difference to labour prices at the low end in the south of England.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
Blimey, passport and visa checks at ports too difficult for you?
Ever heard of the Irish sea?
Once someone is on UK soil they are our problem. The Irish Sea is not a border that currently requires passport and visa checks to cross. If you need a passport to enter the UK mainland from Northern Ireland you are creating an internal frontier and creating two classes of British citizen.
You really are rattled.
What's to stop us imposing such on Brexit? Nothing.
Creating an internal frontier? Well, duh. There were many checks on people flying to N.Ireland during the Troubles.
As for creating two classes of citizens? Poppycock. The citizens of Northern Ireland will be free to move around and settle anywhere within Britain as per now.
Incidentally, how do countries like France (French Guiana), USA (Alaska) and Italy (enclave in Switzerland) manage? Quite fine it seems.
Why would I be rattled? I have always expected Leave to win and have bet accordingly. I realise and accept I hold a minority view. Brexit will not affect me. It will affect plenty of others though. We'll soon find out how. My guess is that you may not be pisting on here so much in a few months' time. We shall see.
I am sure the people of Northern Ireland will be delighted to return to how things used to be during the Troubles.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly. 2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
Closing the Channel Tunnel works both ways. In any case, it would be easier to get people onto ferries. Will we cut ourselves off completely?
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
Blimey, passport and visa checks at ports too difficult for you?
Ever heard of the Irish sea?
Once someone is on UK soil they are our problem. The Irish Sea is not a border that currently requires passport and visa checks to cross. If you need a passport to enter the UK mainland from Northern Ireland you are creating an internal frontier and creating two classes of British citizen.
We've had this discussion.
If you get on a plane in the UK, regardless of its destination, you need sufficient ID, for preference a passport to prove who you are.
The same can easily apply to boats. Northern Ireland is not connected to the mainland by a bridge or tunnel,
Yes, it can. And we create a situation in which British citizens will need passports or driving licences to travel inside the UK.
I'm sure it will do wonders for the NI Unionist turnout to hear that LEAVE would put up an invisible partition between True UK and Ignorable Bit of UK.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
Remain does not have the passion of Leave but probably a majority will still grudgingly vote for it but it will be close as tonight's poll confirms
Still having trouble seeing which way it will go.
Kunsberg said polls show that there are 10 million enthusiastic leavers with only 5 million enthusiastic remainsers.
I think that is key.
I also know that firm remainers are being turned towards leave by the remain campaign rather than the leave one. Just like in Scotland.
Indeed but the status quo in Scotland still held on in the end, even if it was given a fright
It did. After the vow. How are we going to get one of those?
Remain was going to win either way with or without the vow. A rogue poll may have given the frighteners but the result should not have shocked anybody.
Sorry, the online polls show leave with a very slight leave lead, so it is close.
So if it gets closer of a leave lead in phone polls as well, how will we get a vow?
Are you saying that remain is so nailed on that it can't possibly lose?
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
I don't do utterly fervent about anything, especially not on PB, where I think we're best employed discussing what we think will happen, rather than ranting to each other. Not ambivalent either, though - since you (sort of) ask, I think leaving would be a disaster for Britain, powered by a mixture of lukewarm Ministers and unscrupulous opponents, and I think it would lead to a seriously chaotic period with dangerous consequences for economic and political stability and real harm for the medium term. I think it's odd, and frivolous, that people who care about the country are willing to consider it because they don't like Cameron or feel the Remain campaign is a bit crap. I'm not a super-patriot but I'd be sorry to see us in a total mess.
But that's just my view. By the way, I was polled twice over the weekend by Opinium, so unless they were private polls there should be more soon.
I should think we have all experienced a worker that advances spurious objections to doing anything. anything at all. And you sack them.
In other words, you get rid of people who raise inconvenient points and ask difficult questions. That's not how things work at our place, but each to their own.
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
Any victory for Remain will be taken in Brussels a an endorsement of their continued unification.
Wouldn't a Leave victory have much the same effect in Brussels?
Everything and anything that happens is a signal to Brussels to carry on at full speed if not speed up.
That is the problem with Brussels and why the EU will fail at some point.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
I don't do utterly fervent about anything, especially not on PB, where I think we're best employed discussing what we think will happen, rather than ranting to each other.
Er, what we would do on here without ranting at each other?
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? Somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Ireland as a whole is an Island Our common travel area pre-dates the EU Ireland isn't in Schengen
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
To be fair to PB, most of the Leave comments so far have been to treat with caution.
Indeed, that's why I said twitter. I think we all know not to get overexcited by just one poll.
When are the next polls out? I do sense a movement to leave, in particular Osborne's arranged interview with Andrew Neil which he wouldn't risk ordinarily. I can't wait for Neil to tear shreds out of the ridiculous economic scare stories. That's been the biggest mistake of the remain campaign so far, and I don't sense that they're about to change tack, for taming down the scare stories would be an admission of failure all the same.
He gave the CBI spokesperson a very hard time the other day, and Matt Hancock over the 0.1% recession leading to 800,000 job losses. Hancock always looks like a rabbit caught in the headlights with Andrew Neil.
I'm sure it will do wonders for the NI Unionist turnout to hear that LEAVE would put up an invisible partition between True UK and Ignorable Bit of UK.
I think NI Unionists realise they have a land border with the ROI and that the Irish sea exists.
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
That's the Casino Royale theory: that the Brits deep down want to give the EU a terrible scare, and put Brussels on notice, but they don't want to leave - not quite yet. So the ideal result is 50.1% REMAIN, 49.9% LEAVE, cueing up another referendum within a decade maximum, or less, if the EU does anything shifty.
In my heart of hearts such a result might suit me, too, even though I am very likely to vote OUT.
I like Casino's theory, it makes strange sense
Except that the EU will see a Remain victory of any size as endorsing the Project.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
1. The French will have no interest in or incentive to prevent people wanting to get to the UK from trying. 2. And without border posts between NI and the Republic anyone who gets to Ireland has a free passage in.
1. Close the channel tunnel if the French behave so stupidly.
Evening Bilge...
Mother always said the "Channel Tunnel" was the moment the Blessed Margaret started losing the Plot...
The reason my 90 years old granny is undecided is that her late husband was staunchly for IN in '75 due to Maggie being for "IN" (my grandfather was a big fan of the Blessed Margaret)
The old girl came to her senses in the end though (Maggie that is not my granny)
but 'ow can you reject the lurvely EU and its splendid jumpers??
a single market in quality knits .... can't we dream of a better future?
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
I'm sure it will do wonders for the NI Unionist turnout to hear that LEAVE would put up an invisible partition between True UK and Ignorable Bit of UK.
I think NI Unionists realise they have a land border with the ROI and that the Irish sea exists.
Unlike you.
You are saying that the most concrete expression of sovereignty is to control one's own frontier and keep foreigners out. Then you say that William Ulsterman is on the wrong side of that frontier, not in the fully-sovereign True UK but a place where anyone from Vilnius to Lisbon can wander illegally.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? Somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
No, you've got it completely wrong. The Republic if Ireland is obliged to allow all EU citizens the right to settle there. It can't stop them from entering its territory. If we do not implement border controls on our side of the border, all EU citizens will be able to freely enter the UK, as will anyone else who gains entry to Ireland.
Last week ORB good poll for Remain, twitter Leavers saying ORB tiny sample size, ignore.
This week, ORB = Gold Standard.
Well if it's true that they have adjusted their methodology so they actually ask the question on the ballot, then yes they are closer to the Gold Standard than before.
But who the hell knows. The polls are ridiculously wobbly.
It must be terrifying for Cameron, like skating for a gold medal on deadly thin ice.
The previous question they were asking wasn't that far from the ballot paper, I suspect this is a genuine shift, rather a methodology led change.
During the Indyref when the pollsters changed the question to what was on the ballot paper, it made no difference.
I agree. It was clear there was a public mood shift last week. Suddenly REMAINIANS stopped gloating and began to look nervy, and the bookies took a surge of bets on LEAVE.
MY country is as bipolar as me.
Want my theory, the UK wants to Remain in the EU, but they don't want a big Remain victory so the EU sees it as the UK endorsing Ever Closer Union or a United States of Europe, so they are voting accordingly to ensure a tepid Remain victory.
That's the Casino Royale theory: that the Brits deep down want to give the EU a terrible scare, and put Brussels on notice, but they don't want to leave - not quite yet. So the ideal result is 50.1% REMAIN, 49.9% LEAVE, cueing up another referendum within a decade maximum, or less, if the EU does anything shifty.
In my heart of hearts such a result might suit me, too, even though I am very likely to vote OUT.
I like Casino's theory, it makes strange sense
Except that the EU will see a Remain victory of any size as endorsing the Project.
maybe Eurocrats are in agreement with some of the leavers that the present halfway house is unsustainable (maybe esp. economically?), rather than being under any illusion about their popularity in the UK
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
Ireland isn't in Schengen.
Neither are we. But if we can't control our borders, how can Ireland?
I'm sure it will do wonders for the NI Unionist turnout to hear that LEAVE would put up an invisible partition between True UK and Ignorable Bit of UK.
I think NI Unionists realise they have a land border with the ROI and that the Irish sea exists.
Unlike you.
You are saying that the most concrete expression of sovereignty is to control one's own frontier and keep foreigners out. Then you say that William Ulsterman is on the wrong side of that frontier, not in the fully-sovereign True UK but a place where anyone from Vilnius to Lisbon can wander illegally.
To be fair, it's clear he doesn't actually know what he is saying.
You continue to studiously ignore my point that the same freedom of movement policy that allows all EU citizens to come here also allows all UK citizens to live in any EU country. Removing the right of UK citizens to settle in any of the other 27 EU states cannot be rationally described as an anti-isolationist policy. Once again: freedom of movement is not all about immigration; it's also about the giving UK citizens the freedom to emigrate. Why are you so reluctant to acknowledge this?
We would not be removing any rights for UK citizens to live in any EU country. It would be up to the EU to decide what policy they wish to follow. If they wish to remain an isolationist backwater it would be their loss. We would be looking to the rest of the world.
You seem to want to try to blame the UK for what would be an entirely EU decision. I mean I know you are a fairly fanatical Europhile but that really is going too far.
If we remove the freedom of EU citizens to settle in the UK, we can hardly expect the EU countries to continue to allow UK citizens the freedom to settle in their countries. It's not rocket science.
No but it is also not us being isolationist. Normalising immigration rules with the other 93% of the world so they are treated as equals with the other EU states can in no way be considered isolationist, except perhaps in some strange Eurofanatic world.
I wasn't the one claiming that anything was isolationist. It is you who, rather bizarrely, claim that the EU policy of permitting complete freedom of movement within between the 28 countries of the EU is isolationist. It isn't. What you call "normalising" immigration rules actually amounts to curtailing the freedom of UK citizens to work abroad. While you may consdier this a resonable price to pay for reducing immigration, you should be honest enough to acknowledge the fact.
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
I don't do utterly fervent about anything, especially not on PB, where I think we're best employed discussing what we think will happen, rather than ranting to each other. Not ambivalent either, though - since you (sort of) ask, I think leaving would be a disaster for Britain, powered by a mixture of lukewarm Ministers and unscrupulous opponents, and I think it would lead to a seriously chaotic period with dangerous consequences for economic and political stability and real harm for the medium term. I think it's odd, and frivolous, that people who care about the country are willing to consider it because they don't like Cameron or feel the Remain campaign is a bit crap. I'm not a super-patriot but I'd be sorry to see us in a total mess.
But that's just my view. By the way, I was polled twice over the weekend by Opinium, so unless they were private polls there should be more soon.
Nick- I'd love to know how you explain Switzerland's success outside of the EU, when you are such an admirer of the said country? And if Switzerland can be so successful outside the EU then surely we can?
We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
If UK Brexits and institutes a stricter immigration policy and maintains the Ireland/Northern Ireland open border and Ireland DOES NOT match the UK's immigration policy then NI will develop a migration problem as those who cant enter UK via GB will enter via NI and Ireland suddenly has a problem coping with entrants heading for the border
If UK Brexits and institutes a stricter immigration policy and maintains the Ireland/Northern Ireland open border and Ireland DOES match the UK's immigration policy then the border can remain (pun!) open but Ireland suddenly has a problem because it's operating a UK-border-by-fax and for a country that presents itself as independent from the UK that will irk
The Irish Government is operating a pro-Remain campaign in the UK. Has it occurred to you that it may have good reasons for doing so?
What strikes me is the nonchalance many lefties show towards a possible BREXIT.
Just on pb, we have Jonathan expressing ambivalence. And Mike Smithson apparently contemplating an OUT vote to screw the Tories. Even NPXMP doesn't seem particularly horrified by the idea of LEAVE.
I expected all three to be utterly fervent REMAINIACS.
Then Sandy Rentool, and so on.
If this is repeated across the country....
I don't do utterly fervent about anything, especially not on PB, where I think we're best employed discussing what we think will happen, rather than ranting to each other. Not ambivalent either, though - since you (sort of) ask, I think leaving would be a disaster for Britain, powered by a mixture of lukewarm Ministers and unscrupulous opponents, and I think it would lead to a seriously chaotic period with dangerous consequences for economic and political stability and real harm for the medium term. I think it's odd, and frivolous, that people who care about the country are willing to consider it because they don't like Cameron or feel the Remain campaign is a bit crap. I'm not a super-patriot but I'd be sorry to see us in a total mess.
But that's just my view. By the way, I was polled twice over the weekend by Opinium, so unless they were private polls there should be more soon.
Nick- I'd love to know how you explain Switzerland's success outside of the EU, when you are such an admirer of the said country? And if Switzerland can be so successful outside the EU then surely we can?
Sadly, the Leave side has closed off the Swiss option. I imagine a consensus could have been built around that post-Brexit.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
Ireland isn't in Schengen.
Neither are we. But if we can't control our borders, how can Ireland?
If they rock up in Dublin, it's Ireland's problem. If they rock up in the Ardoyne... then it will be their problem. If they get on a flight from Belfast to the mainland... then they'll get spotted at border control.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
Ireland isn't in Schengen.
Neither are we. But if we can't control our borders, how can Ireland?
If they rock up in Dublin, it's Ireland's problem. If they rock up in the Ardoyne... then it will be their problem. If they get on a flight from Belfast to the mainland... then they'll get spotted at border control.
Got it - so NI de facto ceases to be an integral part of the UK. Who's going to tell the DUP?
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? Somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
No, you've got it completely wrong. The Republic if Ireland is obliged to allow all EU citizens the right to settle there. It can't stop them from entering its territory. If we do not implement border controls on our side of the border, all EU citizens will be able to freely enter the UK, as will anyone else who gains entry to Ireland.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
Ireland isn't in Schengen.
Neither are we. But if we can't control our borders, how can Ireland?
If they rock up in Dublin, it's Ireland's problem. If they rock up in the Ardoyne... then it will be their problem. If they get on a flight from Belfast to the mainland... then they'll get spotted at border control.
Got it - so NI de facto ceases to be an integral part of the UK. Who's going to tell the DUP?
No. You need to show ID to get on a plane. Are you having trouble with this? Really? Seriously? You think it's just like getting on a bus?
Besides which, if they do get here by what ever means, they can be sent home. They have no right to reside.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? Somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
No, you've got it completely wrong. The Republic if Ireland is obliged to allow all EU citizens the right to settle there. It can't stop them from entering its territory. If we do not implement border controls on our side of the border, all EU citizens will be able to freely enter the UK, as will anyone else who gains entry to Ireland.
So what?
So you are in favour of retaining free movement with the EU?
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
Ireland isn't in Schengen.
Neither are we. But if we can't control our borders, how can Ireland?
If they rock up in Dublin, it's Ireland's problem. If they rock up in the Ardoyne... then it will be their problem. If they get on a flight from Belfast to the mainland... then they'll get spotted at border control.
Got it - so NI de facto ceases to be an integral part of the UK. Who's going to tell the DUP?
No. You need to show ID to get on a plane. Are you having trouble with this? Really? Seriously? You think it's just like getting on a bus?
Besides which, if they do get here by what ever means, they can be sent home. They have no right to reside.
Anyone from Finland to Romania to Portgual can settle in NI and the UK border patrol doesn't care. Try to go to Wales and they will enforce the law. Try to go to NI and they won't. Hmm.
Re NI. You've considered that Ireland will be the one instituting EU border controls to ward off UK-resident prospective migrants with no right to free movement into the EU?
Let's see if I've got this right?
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
UK will have a different residency and immigration policy to IE and all other EU countries with no free movement, correct? So how could IE NOT have border checks? It would otherwise be an entrepot for illegal UK-based migration to the EU.
Ireland isn't in Schengen.
Neither are we. But if we can't control our borders, how can Ireland?
If they rock up in Dublin, it's Ireland's problem. If they rock up in the Ardoyne... then it will be their problem. If they get on a flight from Belfast to the mainland... then they'll get spotted at border control.
Got it - so NI de facto ceases to be an integral part of the UK. Who's going to tell the DUP?
Comments
I don't buy it, I genuinely think the country is at heart at least a bit Eurosceptic. If not now and a tepid win, then:
A. There will be a demand for another referendum soon.
B. The EU will do something daft that would precipitate it anyway.
So it was better on the Con/Lab than most polls.
Re LD and UKIP - one issue is that the Wisdom Index question gave the 2010 actual GE result - that may well have pushed the LD score higher and UKIP lower - as people may have been reluctant to forecast really massive changes from 2010.
So all in all I think the Wisdom is a useful pointer.
[Means nothing though of course]
I also totally disagree that Leave need to push on immigration, which surely must be factored in. It seems to me that SIR Lynton is unlikely to be giving free advice to Leave, and that this is perhaps a strategy to flush Leave out as a baying crowd of migrant haters. It was very much the strategy that they used against UKIP in the GE.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/eu-passed-tax-id-numbers-for-everyone/
Just think about that for a moment - a tax ID for everyone within the EU along with the federalist wet dream of harmonised uncompetitive corporation taxes across the EU area. Like any area in decline, the EU is increasingly adopting a bunker mentality and closing itself off from the outside world. The long term cycles are definitively pointing to the rise of Asia - we in Britain must lead the way and re-orientate ourself back to the great outside world beyond the insular confines of the EU.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/open-letter-to-the-guardian/
2. A free passage into Northern Ireland. We can process them when they try to enter Britain. I'm not aware of Northern Ireland having a immigration problem.
You seem to want to try to blame the UK for what would be an entirely EU decision. I mean I know you are a fairly fanatical Europhile but that really is going too far.
In net migration and aspiration terms, we'd be better off with a freer movement arrangement with prosperous English-speaking countries. Remaining in the EU means an ever-tighter migration policy with regard to countries outside it, and it's foolish to believe they don't respond in kind. Or we should have vetoed the former Communist countries until an arrangement not including full free movement was reached.
Internal borders inside the UK. Sounds good.
The SIndy In campaign started will a big buffer and still managed to give itself a fright.
Leave has never had the buffer and has been tied or behind on many occasions in the last six years.
Mother always said the "Channel Tunnel" was the moment the Blessed Margaret started losing the Plot...
Ever heard of the Irish sea?
Then the employer could either make themselves more efficient of charge higher prices.
At the moment they only need to pay the minimum.
You might have fewer of the "unskilled immigrant" category in rural areas, less British jams/agricultural produce, and more "skilled immigrants" looking for tech jobs and driving up living costs in London. Because let's face it, if you really want skilled immigrants then you have to accept that they will be moving to places that are already in huge demand from people with the same skills.
Ships leaving French points should have their passengers checked. Ships not with proper clearance should be intercepted by the UK coastguard.
Passengers boarding Eurostar should have the proper clearances.
Too difficult for you? Or rattled?
Leave looks like it is going to win, thanks in no small part to the mendacity of Dave and George. But the Tory Leavers - who supported all that the government did until a couple of months ago - are soon going to have to confront reality.
The old girl came to her senses in the end though (Maggie that is not my granny)
What's to stop us imposing such on Brexit? Nothing.
Creating an internal frontier? Well, duh. There were many checks on people flying to N.Ireland during the Troubles.
As for creating two classes of citizens? Poppycock. The citizens of Northern Ireland will be free to move around and settle anywhere within Britain as per now.
Incidentally, how do countries like France (French Guiana), USA (Alaska) and Italy (enclave in Switzerland) manage? Quite fine it seems.
If you get on a plane in the UK, regardless of its destination, you need sufficient ID, for preference a passport to prove who you are.
The same can easily apply to boats. Northern Ireland is not connected to the mainland by a bridge or tunnel,
The coastguard can be increased.
And airlines are held responsible for their passengers. Why not ferry companies?
I am sure the people of Northern Ireland will be delighted to return to how things used to be during the Troubles.
So if it gets closer of a leave lead in phone polls as well, how will we get a vow?
Are you saying that remain is so nailed on that it can't possibly lose?
But that's just my view. By the way, I was polled twice over the weekend by Opinium, so unless they were private polls there should be more soon.
That is the problem with Brussels and why the EU will fail at some point.
The ROI will be putting in border checks with NI? Somewhere it considers part of the same country? That would devastate its own economy? Turn Donegal into effective enclave? Completely isolate the effective enclave already in existence? No it bloody won't.
It may institute border controls at its ports and airports for entry into the rest of the EU.
Our common travel area pre-dates the EU
Ireland isn't in Schengen
There isn't a problem here.
Unlike you.
a single market in quality knits .... can't we dream of a better future?
and institutes a stricter immigration policy
and maintains the Ireland/Northern Ireland open border
and Ireland DOES NOT match the UK's immigration policy
then NI will develop a migration problem as those who cant enter UK via GB will enter via NI
and Ireland suddenly has a problem coping with entrants heading for the border
If UK Brexits
and institutes a stricter immigration policy
and maintains the Ireland/Northern Ireland open border
and Ireland DOES match the UK's immigration policy
then the border can remain (pun!) open
but Ireland suddenly has a problem because it's operating a UK-border-by-fax and for a country that presents itself as independent from the UK that will irk
The Irish Government is operating a pro-Remain campaign in the UK. Has it occurred to you that it may have good reasons for doing so?
Besides which, if they do get here by what ever means, they can be sent home. They have no right to reside.
Or other countries which are non-contiguous?