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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: A Look at the Remain Campaign.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: A Look at the Remain Campaign.
The Remain approach has been strikingly one-paced. It has been relentlessly and exclusively negative. There has been nothing about how good the EU is, nor how it will become better. We have heard no ‘In 5 years time, the EU will…..We don’t want to get off this Euro-express.’ There is no mention of the direction of travel of the EU, and why that direction is good for Britain.
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I know of very few people enthusiastic about remain, only fear would keep them in. Not a good way to win a campaign.
Also FPT
German finance minister admits the ECBs policy depresses the "little peoples" wages.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/659481/European-Union-Brussels-finance-ECB-central-bank-poorer-Cameron-Merkel-Brexit
That'll go down well.
The Remain campaign have - so far - blown their best chance to win on the basis of a positive vote for the EU and for Britain's role in it.
It took the UK Labour government until 2007 to increase ours to 4 weeks 4 days, and till 2009 to increase it to the current level of 5 weeks 3 days.
http://tinyurl.com/jgwb3a8
https://archive.is/bERJ6#selection-1141.0-1141.62
Once upon a time, I was "invited" to a compulsory party. No-one had much fun at it. If fun had been expected, the organisers wouldn't have made it compulsory.
The EU is very much the same sort of thing.
I've been in favour of the BBC moving to a subscription service for many years simply so that if they annoyed me sufficiently I could get rid of it. I've always thought I wouldn't go through with it as there's just about enough on it that I'm interested in. However, their coverage of the referendum has been nothing short of a disgrace and if I could I'd be ending my subscription.
This is best, albeit crudely demonstrated by looking at the odds on this market offered by the various bookmakers as shown by Oddschecker:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result.
Last night, working from the left, 9 out of the first 10 bookies listed showed LEAVE at odds of 5.0 (or 4/1), thereby implying a 20% chance of success. Tonight only one of those ten bookies are still showing that price, the other nine have all shortened their odds.
That said, I think that Cameron has played up his scepticism in order to win floating voters - I doubt if he has strong feelings either way, but wants to present himself as sharing their concerns while nonetheless favouring Remain.
The NO campaign was very negative too, but it's hard to think of a positive campaign that has won in politics since 2009 save, perhaps, that one guy in Canada. There's no evidence that an electorate scarred by the recession is willing to embrace risk; instead, huge fear and aversion to risk, "what I have I hold", and if you take it away I'll vote for the guy who says he will give it back, so don't try. Least worst is how democracy works these days. And LEAVE, for its part, is hardly multifarious and much more negative than YES, so therefore it's more likely to win. (Say, did you hear the one about the migrants?)
https://twitter.com/achrisevans/status/737278291346903041
"Hillary Clinton is about to be indicted on federal racketeering charges" citation needed
"contorted admissions of the Guardianista that, feck, Clarkson probably was quite good after all" citation needed
theme of the night really, comforting fantasies about the nasty, stupid people who aren't conservative
"I know of very few people enthusiastic about remain, only fear would keep them in. Not a good way to win a campaign.".
Well. with respect, I must say that most of my friends must be fearless.
They are almost to an individual are not Tories. I wonder whether this is a correlation or a coincidence.
Blair - remembered for a Dodgy Dossier.
Cameron - remembered for a Dodgy Deal.
So he was the err to Blair after all.
The EU is the epitome of isolationist protectionism.
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/737377314250559488
http://www.worldnewspolitics.com/2016/05/30/exclusive-huffington-post-writer-editors-deleted-article-hillarys-imminent-indictment-disabled-writing/
It'll do Labour loads of good in the long run, supporting unlimited EU immigration and keeping wages low. Especially supporting it when the elected UK government can do absolutely nothing about the numbers that come here from the continent.
Brexit may cause an average £4300 loss in earnings. But I don't believe for a moment the working classes will lose that.
Old Top Gear was tired, about 1 or 2 seasons from being cancelled IMO. Clarkson hit upon a lucky way out just in time. Last night was okay, mainly awkward because it was different. Reminded me of series one of Top Gear. Needs to find its own voice.
Otherwise in politics feeling quite LEAVEy at the moment. Democratic deficit in EU potentially bigger risk than economic hit IMO. Probably will default to REMAIN, but can't deny feelings are there.
It is also based on the idea that we take as long to negotiate a trade deal on our own as the EU does when taking account of 28 sets of vested interests.
"Next month official statistics are set to confirm the UK’s population has reached a record high, surpassing the symbolic 65m threshold. At the start of the millennium statisticians had not expected that mark to be reached until after 2031."
Extra Gear online show was at least something different and presenters showed promise of something similar but different, and without it being forced.
Just as for Sexit (Scottish exit...) I believe we are engaging in a democratic process here.
Many of the Cons Remainers are at their wits end. There may well be a more dramatic consequence.
Yes but at best we are going to be where we are now dragging along behind reluctantly moaning about EU armies or the latest absurdity about carrot orangeness regulations or some idiot in Strasbourg making a speech suggesting we drive in the right or whatever. It'll fester.
These polls are not that believable.
Choose your prejudice then pick the poll you like.
An honest debate would have genuinely settled the issue.
As it is, I am hopeful that a Leave outcome, although full of uncertainty as many point out, would result in a re-engagement with politics in this country.
I find the prospect quite exciting.
Apart from that, it'll be fine.
Remain are worried stiff, they've chucked everything at Leave and they're not just standing, they're fighting back. Cameron has the demeanour of the bloke who can't believe what he's done to himself, leaving the casino without the rent money.
They may just hold on but its desperate now and the Euros, where patriotic fervour runs high, are a couple of weeks away. And oh boy, if we manage to pull this off it will be the sweetest feeling.
They can't really do a last minute believable vow either.
The Final Countdown
Odd. But true.
So does Alfie from the east end.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/andrew-taken-aback-by-callers-anti-eu-rant-131412