Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
"If Remain wins, it's clear the UK just can't get enough of the EU."
Mr Eagles. I agree. If Remain win, then Remainers should support further integration because it's what they are voting for.
That's where it varies from the Scottish Referendum. Winning meant a little more devolution.
Remain winning means less independence, a rump Parliament, a common currency, a European army, and a European defence policy. There's no pretence, but they just don't say it out loud.
Well done for your honesty.
Come off it. Surely you realise this is just scaremongering cobblers, and just as bad as Osborne's dodgy reports?
What would you have said in 1975 if someone had suggested to you then that the EU and Britain's participation would be at the stage they are now in 2016 without a further public vote? 'Scaremongering cobblers' is quite near the mark in my estimation.
There's a big difference between distant clairvoyancy and a prediction of what is reasonably foreseeable in the short to medium term.
If I vote to Remain, it will in no circumstances be a "In - for ever, without further consultation and as far as the EU federalists want to take us", and I still fully expect a radical reshaping of the EU at some point in the not too distant future, which gives us our opportunity then to forge something new and exciting and very much in our own interests.
So you hope for something that has failed to materialise in the last 40 years at the very time when all the pressure is for the exact opposite to happen. That does strike me as a mite unrealistic.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
5/20-5/22 2016 North Carolina President Trump 43% Clinton 41% PPP
Moving back to the GOP column (it'll actually go to TCTC in my sheet)
If Trump wins just 4 more states than Romney, he's in. FL, PA, NV, CO...
That's a very big 'just'. Those states are going to be very hard for him to win. Hillary will win the college handily precisely because of the demographics in the states you cite.
No surprise he is ahead in NC – it's hardly core blue territory.
The first two are already within striking distance (1% median DEM leads, currently), and PA definitely seems to be trending GOP. No polls in the latter two. Surely Trump must have some better prospect in Nevada? It was his first blowout victory in the primaries...
The problem for Trump in Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and its suburbs. If it was just the rural parts of the state and the rustbelt Trump would win it but Philadelphia is the 5th largest state in America and will go heavily for Hillary, tilting the state her way
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
Have you looked at DKs in polls that filter by turnout?
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Remember all those people solemly telling us here a year ago that Nick Cleggs appalling trust level meant nothing and people would still vote for their hardworking local Libdem MP
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Remember all those people solemly telling us here a year ago that Nick Cleggs appalling trust level meant nothing and people would still vote for their hardworking local Libdem MP
It was the concept that some GE2010 Lib Dems would have two votes, one for Clegg and the other for Labour...
Mr. SE, if Cameron wants to be inept at negotiating with his own money, that's fine by me. It's when he's inept on behalf of the whole country it's irritating.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
Have you looked at DKs in polls that filter by turnout?
Do people tell pollsters the truth about whether they are going to vote especially as a no answer means after, all the boring consumer crap youve had fired at you, they are not going to ask you then interesting question at the end.
"If Remain wins, it's clear the UK just can't get enough of the EU."
Mr Eagles. I agree. If Remain win, then Remainers should support further integration because it's what they are voting for.
That's where it varies from the Scottish Referendum. Winning meant a little more devolution.
Remain winning means less independence, a rump Parliament, a common currency, a European army, and a European defence policy. There's no pretence, but they just don't say it out loud.
Well done for your honesty.
Come off it. Surely you realise this is just scaremongering cobblers, and just as bad as Osborne's dodgy reports?
What would you have said in 1975 if someone had suggested to you then that the EU and Britain's participation would be at the stage they are now in 2016 without a further public vote? 'Scaremongering cobblers' is quite near the mark in my estimation.
There's a big difference between distant clairvoyancy and a prediction of what is reasonably foreseeable in the short to medium term.
If I vote to Remain, it will in no circumstances be a "In - for ever, without further consultation and as far as the EU federalists want to take us", and I still fully expect a radical reshaping of the EU at some point in the not too distant future, which gives us our opportunity then to forge something new and exciting and very much in our own interests.
So you hope for something that has failed to materialise in the last 40 years at the very time when all the pressure is for the exact opposite to happen. That does strike me as a mite unrealistic.
Your view is clearly that the Eurozone is on the fast track to becoming effectively a single country. What do you expect the position of the non-Eurozone EU members to be in 10 years time? If the United States of the Eurozone is a given, why is it not preferable to be part of a system of governance which gives us a non-negligible say in how things are run (as well as the option to go all in if we should ever so chose)?
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
Have you looked at DKs in polls that filter by turnout?
Do people tell pollsters the truth about whether they are going to vote especially as a no answer means after, all the boring consumer crap youve had fired at you, they are not going to ask you then interesting question at the end.
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
If they came out with a positive message it wouldn't be all that bad, but everything is so relentlessly negative right now. Kinda depressing...
Hilton seems to be making the point that if we come out, the people whose lives will really change are the elite telling us to stay in.
Here's a funny thing. One of the most enlightening and refreshingly neutral blogs on euroref is being provided by.... James Kelly, the exiled Scot, once of this parish. Worth checking out.
Here's a funny thing. One of the most enlightening and refreshingly neutral blogs on euroref is being provided by.... James Kelly, the exiled Scot, once of this parish. Worth checking out.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
Have you looked at DKs in polls that filter by turnout?
Do people tell pollsters the truth about whether they are going to vote especially as a no answer means after, all the boring consumer crap youve had fired at you, they are not going to ask you then interesting question at the end.
Isn't VI always asked first?
You may be right but if I had just been asked who I would vote for and expressed a preference I dont think I would then afmit to having no intention of voting -- especially in a phone interview.
Downthread I saw a tweet/image of a skinhead on a seesaw pointing at an Asian lady, its from something called Operation Black Vote. I'm all for freedom of speech and loathe censorship but wtf is that all about. I can only assume some idiot has paid another idiot to produce this tripe, I'm not certain how much lower we can stoop.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Downthread I saw a tweet/image of a skinhead on a seesaw pointing at an Asian lady, its from something called Operation Black Vote. I'm all for freedom of speech and loathe censorship but wtf is that all about. I can only assume some idiot has paid another idiot to produce this tripe, I'm not certain how much lower we can stoop.
I wonder if it has been reported as a hate crime yet. The skinhead was like a caricature out of Völkischer Beobachter
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
I suspect turnout is going to surprise on the upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see it approaching General Election levels.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Sadly the French team is quite good, and therefore they are unlikely to want to disrupt the tournament
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
I suspect turnout is going to surprise on the upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see it approaching General Election levels.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
That is just speculation.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
I suspect turnout is going to surprise on the upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see it approaching General Election levels.
Downthread I saw a tweet/image of a skinhead on a seesaw pointing at an Asian lady, its from something called Operation Black Vote. I'm all for freedom of speech and loathe censorship but wtf is that all about. I can only assume some idiot has paid another idiot to produce this tripe, I'm not certain how much lower we can stoop.
Downthread I saw a tweet/image of a skinhead on a seesaw pointing at an Asian lady, its from something called Operation Black Vote. I'm all for freedom of speech and loathe censorship but wtf is that all about. I can only assume some idiot has paid another idiot to produce this tripe, I'm not certain how much lower we can stoop.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Sadly the French team is quite good, and therefore they are unlikely to want to disrupt the tournament
Here's a funny thing. One of the most enlightening and refreshingly neutral blogs on euroref is being provided by.... James Kelly, the exiled Scot, once of this parish. Worth checking out.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Sadly the French team is quite good, and therefore they are unlikely to want to disrupt the tournament
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Could not agree. Leave has the best lines. The problem is that it also has crap people delivering them. With someone charismatic and identifiably centrist leading the line I reckon they'd be home and dry. But being so associated with the right is a real problem for them.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Just remember 58 - 42.
My Nojam was Remain 41.57%, though my turnout was a rather optomistic 67%.
Jacks ARS4EU is trending my way ;-)
I was very surprised to find out the turnout for the AV referendum was 41%. This is a far more significant vote and is getting huge amounts of coverage, so we should expect a turnout well in excess of 50%, maybe a lot higher in places like London.
I saw my first Leave poster today. On a nice cottagy looking house in Cheshunt, I haven't seen any Remain posters yet.
I saw a huge poster outside a hospital saying something along the lines of, "£50 million is sent to the EU every day. Let's spend it on the NHS. Vote Leave".
You are aware of most of my views so I won't rehearse them here. Two points only (and then sadly I must away):
1. Walking down the road (I actually hear the distant sound of the massed bands of the Household Division from where I sit) it doesn't feel as though the UK is not sovereign. 2. I thought the five presidents report was a vision for EZ countries only.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Could not agree. Leave has the best lines. The problem is that it also has crap people delivering them. With someone charismatic and identifiably centrist leading the line I reckon they'd be home and dry. But being so associated with the right is a real problem for them.
I hope you're right but, while I agree that that's a problem for Leave, I'm not sure it's fatal.
Twitter saying tampon tax abolition not included in new VAT rate list from EU.
Anyone know if this is true?
Awkward:
"After apparently securing a relaxation of the regulations, the Chancellor boasted: "We’ve used our seat at the top table in Europe to secure what the British public has demanded – common sense on VAT and an end to the tampon tax.""
You are aware of most of my views so I won't rehearse them here. Two points only (and then sadly I must away):
1. Walking down the road (I actually hear the distant sound of the massed bands of the Household Division from where I sit) it doesn't feel as though the UK is not sovereign. 2. I thought the five presidents report was a vision for EZ countries only.
But great piece. VL should have used it.
Thanks Topping.
(1) The UK is still *ultimately* sovereign, of course: the question is (a) whether our continued membership of the EU, with all the powers it now holds by virtue of all the treaties we've signed to date, is still appropriate for us, and, (b) whether those same treaties hold a far greater scope for future integration than we thought we'd signed up to, with more to come, by virtue of the constitutional and legal powers the EU now holds in its own right.
(2) Yes, it is. The question is how it affects the behaviour of those eurozone countries and, thereby, how it impacts upon non-eurozone countries through the EU institutions. However, the single market changes proposed would affect all 28 members states.
Twitter saying tampon tax abolition not included in new VAT rate list from EU.
Anyone know if this is true?
Awkward:
"After apparently securing a relaxation of the regulations, the Chancellor boasted: "We’ve used our seat at the top table in Europe to secure what the British public has demanded – common sense on VAT and an end to the tampon tax.""
Twitter saying tampon tax abolition not included in new VAT rate list from EU.
Anyone know if this is true?
Awkward:
"After apparently securing a relaxation of the regulations, the Chancellor boasted: "We’ve used our seat at the top table in Europe to secure what the British public has demanded – common sense on VAT and an end to the tampon tax.""
"If Remain wins, it's clear the UK just can't get enough of the EU."
Mr Eagles. I agree. If Remain win, then Remainers should support further integration because it's what they are voting for.
That's where it varies from the Scottish Referendum. Winning meant a little more devolution.
Remain winning means less independence, a rump Parliament, a common currency, a European army, and a European defence policy. There's no pretence, but they just don't say it out loud.
Well done for your honesty.
Come off it. Surely you realise this is just scaremongering cobblers, and just as bad as Osborne's dodgy reports?
What would you have said in 1975 if someone had suggested to you then that the EU and Britain's participation would be at the stage they are now in 2016 without a further public vote? 'Scaremongering cobblers' is quite near the mark in my estimation.
There's a big difference between distant clairvoyancy and a prediction of what is reasonably foreseeable in the short to medium term.
If I vote to Remain, it will in no circumstances be a "In - for ever, without further consultation and as far as the EU federalists want to take us", and I still fully expect a radical reshaping of the EU at some point in the not too distant future, which gives us our opportunity then to forge something new and exciting and very much in our own interests.
So you hope for something that has failed to materialise in the last 40 years at the very time when all the pressure is for the exact opposite to happen. That does strike me as a mite unrealistic.
Your view is clearly that the Eurozone is on the fast track to becoming effectively a single country. What do you expect the position of the non-Eurozone EU members to be in 10 years time? If the United States of the Eurozone is a given, why is it not preferable to be part of a system of governance which gives us a non-negligible say in how things are run (as well as the option to go all in if we should ever so chose)?
If we do not join the Eurozone then I expect us to be either forced out of the EU entirely (Yay!!) or sat bemoaning the fact that the Eurozone dominates all rule making in the EU and that our financial services industry is being decimated by rules emanating from Frankfurt.
Funnily enough I expect us to be in exactly the position the Remainders falsely claimed for EEA membership - subject to all the rules with effectively no say in how they are decided.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Sadly the French team is quite good, and therefore they are unlikely to want to disrupt the tournament
You are aware of most of my views so I won't rehearse them here. Two points only (and then sadly I must away):
1. Walking down the road (I actually hear the distant sound of the massed bands of the Household Division from where I sit) it doesn't feel as though the UK is not sovereign. 2. I thought the five presidents report was a vision for EZ countries only.
Here's a funny thing. One of the most enlightening and refreshingly neutral blogs on euroref is being provided by.... James Kelly, the exiled Scot, once of this parish. Worth checking out.
Twitter saying tampon tax abolition not included in new VAT rate list from EU.
Anyone know if this is true?
Awkward:
"After apparently securing a relaxation of the regulations, the Chancellor boasted: "We’ve used our seat at the top table in Europe to secure what the British public has demanded – common sense on VAT and an end to the tampon tax.""
I much prefer a situation where the elected government has the power to raise taxes or not as it sees fit.
Gareth Bacon, London Assembly Member for the Tories, sums it up quite nicely:
"Mr. Bacon summed up Mr. Kahn’s argument as: “We need other people outside of this country to impose those rights upon us because our government is not competent to do it themselves… a democratically elected government in this country should be overruled by an undemocratically elected elite in Brussels.”"
That's the last but one poll. CBS/YouGov which finished later had the lead at 1%, as did the Quinnipiac earlier in May. But admittedly, not a great poll. Shifts Florida a little out of reach.
FWIW, I've just added an analysis which shows Clinton's national lead slipping consistently by about 0.5% a week for the past eight or nine weeks...
Hillary is at her lowest ebb – thanks to having to go through the motions of fighting the already defeated Sanders – yet still has a clear lead in the key states.
The popular vote might be within four points, but the electoral college will be comfortable for Hillary.
I think the word "sovereignty" is being used as a shorthand for something else.
The real distinction is between those who think the nation state is still worthwhile and a good thing and those who think that it has had its day.
If you belong to the former camp, then - even if you accept that nation states will co-operate, join international institutions etc etc - you believe that the fundamental political grouping should be the nation state. And you also attach more importance to the idea that that nation state should be able to govern itself, that that should be the default setting.
Whereas if you are in the latter group, giving up or attenuating the institutions of a nation state is less problematic. Self-government may be really quite unattractive if previous instances of it led to war or civil war. Why hold onto the idea - let alone the structures - of a nation state if the nation state you came from was a disaster, failure or total menace or riven by civil war e.g. Germany or Italy or Belgium or Spain? Why be so attached to Parliamentary democracy if you don't have much tradition of Parliamentary democracy e.g. Italy or France, whose current Republic is barely 58 years old?
This seems to me to be one of the fundamental divides between the UK and much of Continental Europe. We have largely made a success of the nation state. So we don't see the need to abandon it. Much of Continental Europe did not make a success of nationhood and some countries made such a mess of it that parts of Europe will forever be stained with the blood of those who died as a result. So creating a new structure seems right to them in a way that it does not to the UK. You don't change if what you have works.
It is no coincidence that the UK made moves to join the EU when its economy was failing by comparison with other countries, when it lacked economic self-confidence and equally not surprising that virtually the entire case for remaining in the EU is an economic one. Strangely, despite our relative recent economic success there still seems to be a lack of economic self-confidence about the British - as if we could not possibly be successful without the EU (and I don't discount by any means the economic risks of leaving). It is an odd psychological mindset.
And as I have said before it misses the point of the EU.
Interestingly, looks like Florida will in November legalise cannabis for medical use (poll has it 69-23). Some other states that have done that have gone for full-blown legalisation soon after (e.g. Colorado). Cannabis prohibition in the United States is dying.
That's the last but one poll. CBS/YouGov which finished later had the lead at 1%, as did the Quinnipiac earlier in May. But admittedly, not a great poll. Shifts Florida a little out of reach.
FWIW, I've just added an analysis which shows Clinton's national lead slipping consistently by about 0.5% a week for the past eight or nine weeks...
Early days all round.
Once Clinton effectively eliminates Sanders her numbers will move just as Trump's have. Even then the shake out from the distant Conventions will still require factoring in. The contenders are still shadow boxing before the main event.
Nevertheless Trump has to near run the table of swing states to secure the electoral college.
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Sadly the French team is quite good, and therefore they are unlikely to want to disrupt the tournament
France are woefully under-ranked thanks to having played very few meaningful games in the last two years (simply because they have not been asked to qualify for the tournament, their being hosts). They are a superb side and it would be very French indeed, after all the horrors they have had to deal with in recent times, to go on to win the thing on a surge of national pride.
And they'll tap them on the head, say bad boys, don't do that again and let them go. The Liberal Left have no concept that others think totally different from them.
That's the last but one poll. CBS/YouGov which finished later had the lead at 1%, as did the Quinnipiac earlier in May. But admittedly, not a great poll. Shifts Florida a little out of reach.
FWIW, I've just added an analysis which shows Clinton's national lead slipping consistently by about 0.5% a week for the past eight or nine weeks...
Early days all round.
Once Clinton effectively eliminates Sanders her numbers will move just as Trump's have. Even then the shake out from the distant Conventions will still require factoring in. The contenders are still shadow boxing before the main event.
Nevertheless Trump has to near run the table of swing states to secure the electoral college.
Your Arse is still looking good after all these years, Jack.
And they'll tap them on the head, say bad boys, don't do that again and let them go. The Liberal Left have no concept that others think totally different from them.
Or tomorrow we'll hear that they arrested the wrong people by mistake - again.
This seems to me to be one of the fundamental divides between the UK and much of Continental Europe. We have largely made a success of the nation state. So we don't see the need to abandon it. Much of Continental Europe did not make a success of nationhood and some countries made such a mess of it that parts of Europe will forever be stained with the blood of those who died as a result. So creating a new structure seems right to them in a way that it does not to the UK. You don't change if what you have works.
Pinning that argument on the success of our constitutional arrangements rather than the good fortune of a stretch of water keeping us relatively safe from land invasions seems a bit tenuous.
Even now we have an unresolved situation from the mishandled withdrawal from Ireland and a nationalist party dominates the politics north of the border.
Arguably where the EU has been successful is in imitating the British art of fudge and delay as a core governing principle.
I think the word "sovereignty" is being used as a shorthand for something else. ... And as I have said before it misses the point of the EU.
Well... I don't think most people believe the nation state is to be given up. Perhaps not even most REMAIN voters. Yet REMAIN is winning, apparently.
Even within the EU, the state remains the primary and practically the only unit of relevance for political discussion. States participate in the council and nominate commissioners; voters choose from among their national parties as their parliamentary representatives, with the geographical unit representation in all cases at the state or sub-state regional level.
(Needless to say the UK is not a nation state. It is a merger of several nations, woven together mainly by force of arms. Nothing odd about that latter point even among nation states - France a good example. But the UK was not an organic outgrowth of an ancient people from Enniskillen to Lowestoft all speaking the same language. And it has been a parliamentary democracy for less than a hundred years; before that, it was under a limited system of regional representation, in which most adults did not participate.)
Opinium has it 51% Remain 34% Leave in London, 60 40 excluding don't knows but only 44% Remain 40% Leave UK wide
How can polls still be showing REMAIN with only a 4% lead given the onslaught the Establishment has unleashed on LEAVE?
Betfair out to 6 now on Leave, and 55-60% Remain band now down to 3. Clearly people believe the phone polls in preference to online.
Leave have made no progress. It's a lock for Remain – most DKs will break for the status quo or just won't turn out. As most influencers (educational elite etc) are Remainers, that will crush Leave beyond the point of no return.
Then again YouGov and ICM have had the race level within the last 48 hours.
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
Leave at 5/1 or over is certainly value.
Agreed, with a caveat.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
Disruption of Euro 2016 by sundry strikers and rioters in France would do tbe job nicely
Sadly the French team is quite good, and therefore they are unlikely to want to disrupt the tournament
France are woefully under-ranked thanks to having played very few meaningful games in the last two years (simply because they have not been asked to qualify for the tournament, their being hosts). They are a superb side and it would be very French indeed, after all the horrors they have had to deal with in recent times, to go on to win the thing on a surge of national pride.
You are aware of most of my views so I won't rehearse them here. Two points only (and then sadly I must away):
1. Walking down the road (I actually hear the distant sound of the massed bands of the Household Division from where I sit) it doesn't feel as though the UK is not sovereign. 2. I thought the five presidents report was a vision for EZ countries only.
But great piece. VL should have used it.
Thanks Topping.
(1) The UK is still *ultimately* sovereign.
Just as Texas is.....
Yes, there's a difference of course between being theoretically sovereign and practically sovereign: theoretically sovereign means there is a legal way to do it, but practically it's extremely difficult - i.e. you can make the cost and difficulty threshold of secession so high that it's a risky path to take. Practically sovereign means you can basically walk away anytime with no serious political or economic consequences.
The constitution of the USA does not permit a state to leave. It is a perpetual and indissoluble union, unless all other states agree for it to secede.
The equivalent constitution of the EU does recognise this right through Article 50 in TFEU (Lisbon) but this also isn't particularly practical: 2 years notice, being excluded from the exit negotiations, and the QMV votes on it, and it also threatens consequences if we do leave, so that makes it scary and hard to guarantee a decent exit deal.
We are, of course, already seeing how this is being exploited by the Remain campaign. So I think the UK is somewhere in between.
However, we can quit if we really want to (and there is a legal route to do so) and our parliament can repeal the European Communities Act as well.
I think the word "sovereignty" is being used as a shorthand for something else.
The real distinction is between those who think the nation state is still worthwhile and a good thing and those who think that it has had its day.
If you belong to the former camp, then - even if you accept that nation states will co-operate, join international institutions etc etc - you believe that the fundamental political grouping should be the nation state. And you also attach more importance to the idea that that nation state should be able to govern itself, that that should be the default setting.
Whereas if you are in the latter group, giving up or attenuating the institutions of a nation state is less problematic. Self-government may be really quite unattractive if previous instances of it led to war or civil war. Why hold onto the idea - let alone the structures - of a nation state if the nation state you came from was a disaster, failure or total menace or riven by civil war e.g. Germany or Italy or Belgium or Spain? Why be so attached to Parliamentary democracy if you don't have much tradition of Parliamentary democracy e.g. Italy or France, whose current Republic is barely 58 years old?
This seems to me to be one of the fundamental divides between the UK and much of Continental Europe. We have largely made a success of the nation state. So we don't see the need to abandon it. Much of Continental Europe did not make a success of nationhood and some countries made such a mess of it that parts of Europe will forever be stained with the blood of those who died as a result. So creating a new structure seems right to them in a way that it does not to the UK. You don't change if what you have works.
It is no coincidence that the UK made moves to join the EU when its economy was failing by comparison with other countries, when it lacked economic self-confidence and equally not surprising that virtually the entire case for remaining in the EU is an economic one. Strangely, despite our relative recent economic success there still seems to be a lack of economic self-confidence about the British - as if we could not possibly be successful without the EU (and I don't discount by any means the economic risks of leaving). It is an odd psychological mindset.
And as I have said before it misses the point of the EU.
Yup, and I set out my views on precisely that in Section 1 of my blogpost.
On your final paragraph, I think a large part of the nation is *still* living in the post-Suez and post-imperial shadow, despite that starting to move out of living memory and into the history books now.
We are, of course, already seeing how this is being exploited by the Remain campaign. So I think the UK is somewhere in between.
However, we can quit if we really want to (and there is a legal route to do so) and our parliament can repeal the European Communities Act as well.
But we'd have to vote for it first.
I think we're clearly in the latter camp rather than somewhere in between. Whatever arguments the government is using in the referendum campaign, if they were behind Leave, they could execute a withdrawal without the majority of the negative consequences they're threatening now.
Comments
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36332411
Also, while from a betting perspective I have money on Leave, from a political perspective I want Remain to win and from that standpoint I find Cameron's low trust rating worrying. How can one interpret that except in a way that suggests his message is being rejected?
Leave is far from out of this imo.
With turnout expected to be 60% ish ie about 40% wont turn up and the polls only finding 20% or less dont knows it is a reasonable assumption that most of the dont knows wont turn up and a statistically significant numbe of those who express a preference wont turn up either
http://order-order.com/2016/05/25/ozbot-versus-androgenoid/
Tyvm
"Drama as Survation reports that Remain's lead has dropped to just SIX points - unusually low for a telephone poll"
Pity he apparently got banned
Opinium were spot on with the Mayor, and their London gap for Leave/Remain is considerably smaller than 'phone sub samples show.
Him and SeanT got into a royal slanging match one evening, and both ended up sin binned for a while. SeanT came back. Tim did not.
We need something, a catalyst to move the Leave vote upwards. Perhaps it's the debate, perhaps a resurgence of the migrant crisis, but we need something. Otherwise, it's likely the clock will run down, and there'll be an unenthusiastic (but near certain) vote for Remain.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-campaign-to-encourage-under-registered-groups-to-register-to-vote
England FIFA ranking 10
http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
Jacks ARS4EU is trending my way ;-)
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3171064/Euro-2016.html
On a nice cottagy looking house in Cheshunt,
I haven't seen any Remain posters yet.
Vs
One REMAIN window poster.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/five-dead-as-migrant-boat-capsizes-off-libya-2dv608228
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/warren-attacks-trump-223541
Anyone know if this is true?
You are aware of most of my views so I won't rehearse them here. Two points only (and then sadly I must away):
1. Walking down the road (I actually hear the distant sound of the massed bands of the Household Division from where I sit) it doesn't feel as though the UK is not sovereign.
2. I thought the five presidents report was a vision for EZ countries only.
But great piece. VL should have used it.
"After apparently securing a relaxation of the regulations, the Chancellor boasted: "We’ve used our seat at the top table in Europe to secure what the British public has demanded – common sense on VAT and an end to the tampon tax.""
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/673665/EU-referendum-George-Osborne-Brexit-tampon-tax-John-Redwood
(1) The UK is still *ultimately* sovereign, of course: the question is (a) whether our continued membership of the EU, with all the powers it now holds by virtue of all the treaties we've signed to date, is still appropriate for us, and, (b) whether those same treaties hold a far greater scope for future integration than we thought we'd signed up to, with more to come, by virtue of the constitutional and legal powers the EU now holds in its own right.
(2) Yes, it is. The question is how it affects the behaviour of those eurozone countries and, thereby, how it impacts upon non-eurozone countries through the EU institutions. However, the single market changes proposed would affect all 28 members states.
Have a good evening.
Funnily enough I expect us to be in exactly the position the Remainders falsely claimed for EEA membership - subject to all the rules with effectively no say in how they are decided.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
Sample 2,542
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/florida-general-election-poll-marijuana-and-trans-bathroom/
Will Salmond put the boot into Cameron as well as Leave? How will he come across to the English viewer?
The other three are not exactly box office but maybe one of them will seize the moment.
Always assuming anybody watches.
Fook. Even I think that's harsh.
"Mr. Bacon summed up Mr. Kahn’s argument as: “We need other people outside of this country to impose those rights upon us because our government is not competent to do it themselves… a democratically elected government in this country should be overruled by an undemocratically elected elite in Brussels.”"
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/25/mayor-london-sadiq-khan-grilled-bacon-question-time/
FWIW, I've just added an analysis which shows Clinton's national lead slipping consistently by about 0.5% a week for the past eight or nine weeks...
Hillary is at her lowest ebb – thanks to having to go through the motions of fighting the already defeated Sanders – yet still has a clear lead in the key states.
The popular vote might be within four points, but the electoral college will be comfortable for Hillary.
The real distinction is between those who think the nation state is still worthwhile and a good thing and those who think that it has had its day.
If you belong to the former camp, then - even if you accept that nation states will co-operate, join international institutions etc etc - you believe that the fundamental political grouping should be the nation state. And you also attach more importance to the idea that that nation state should be able to govern itself, that that should be the default setting.
Whereas if you are in the latter group, giving up or attenuating the institutions of a nation state is less problematic. Self-government may be really quite unattractive if previous instances of it led to war or civil war. Why hold onto the idea - let alone the structures - of a nation state if the nation state you came from was a disaster, failure or total menace or riven by civil war e.g. Germany or Italy or Belgium or Spain? Why be so attached to Parliamentary democracy if you don't have much tradition of Parliamentary democracy e.g. Italy or France, whose current Republic is barely 58 years old?
This seems to me to be one of the fundamental divides between the UK and much of Continental Europe. We have largely made a success of the nation state. So we don't see the need to abandon it. Much of Continental Europe did not make a success of nationhood and some countries made such a mess of it that parts of Europe will forever be stained with the blood of those who died as a result. So creating a new structure seems right to them in a way that it does not to the UK. You don't change if what you have works.
It is no coincidence that the UK made moves to join the EU when its economy was failing by comparison with other countries, when it lacked economic self-confidence and equally not surprising that virtually the entire case for remaining in the EU is an economic one. Strangely, despite our relative recent economic success there still seems to be a lack of economic self-confidence about the British - as if we could not possibly be successful without the EU (and I don't discount by any means the economic risks of leaving). It is an odd psychological mindset.
And as I have said before it misses the point of the EU.
Once Clinton effectively eliminates Sanders her numbers will move just as Trump's have. Even then the shake out from the distant Conventions will still require factoring in. The contenders are still shadow boxing before the main event.
Nevertheless Trump has to near run the table of swing states to secure the electoral college.
Even now we have an unresolved situation from the mishandled withdrawal from Ireland and a nationalist party dominates the politics north of the border.
Arguably where the EU has been successful is in imitating the British art of fudge and delay as a core governing principle.
Even within the EU, the state remains the primary and practically the only unit of relevance for political discussion. States participate in the council and nominate commissioners; voters choose from among their national parties as their parliamentary representatives, with the geographical unit representation in all cases at the state or sub-state regional level.
(Needless to say the UK is not a nation state. It is a merger of several nations, woven together mainly by force of arms. Nothing odd about that latter point even among nation states - France a good example. But the UK was not an organic outgrowth of an ancient people from Enniskillen to Lowestoft all speaking the same language. And it has been a parliamentary democracy for less than a hundred years; before that, it was under a limited system of regional representation, in which most adults did not participate.)
The constitution of the USA does not permit a state to leave. It is a perpetual and indissoluble union, unless all other states agree for it to secede.
The equivalent constitution of the EU does recognise this right through Article 50 in TFEU (Lisbon) but this also isn't particularly practical: 2 years notice, being excluded from the exit negotiations, and the QMV votes on it, and it also threatens consequences if we do leave, so that makes it scary and hard to guarantee a decent exit deal.
We are, of course, already seeing how this is being exploited by the Remain campaign. So I think the UK is somewhere in between.
However, we can quit if we really want to (and there is a legal route to do so) and our parliament can repeal the European Communities Act as well.
But we'd have to vote for it first.
Some says my ARSE is the eighth wonder of the world but most are more generous ....
Controversial Corbyn aide Andrew Fisher set to be appointed Labour's "executive director of policy" imminently. Replacing Neale Coleman
Corbyn's office clearly emboldened by recent events. Fisher is from hard left PCS, embroiled in row over Class War party support....
... Labour MPs likely to be unhappy at Fisher's appointment.
Andrew Fisher's new role likely to be even bigger than this - de facto deputy chief of staff too.
On your final paragraph, I think a large part of the nation is *still* living in the post-Suez and post-imperial shadow, despite that starting to move out of living memory and into the history books now.
Bizarre.