The more I read during this campaign the more leave remind me of a dog chasing cars. Absolutely desperate to catch one but absolutely no idea what to do with it. Year's of whining about a referendum then not a single idea about how to win it, when they get one.
You are completely misquoting The Joker there!
"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... do things!"
REMAINERs don't want Britain to be an independent sovereign nation.
Just let that sink in for a minute.
So long as the UK has three power to unilaterally leave the EU via the repeal of the European Communities Act, it is sovereign. I don't see that changing, even if we do vote to Remain.
Forgive me if I don;t take that as a guarantee of centuries of rights, regularly bought in blood.
Still, your words will be a comfort when I have to rot in a foreign jail for months for non-payment of euro taxes.
You can spend months in a foreign jail for the non payment of US taxes today, if you haven't correctly accounted for services delivered to a US company from a UK company.
Without an extradition hearing at a UK court? Are you sure about that?
You do need to be extradited. But the extradition treaty we've signed with the US is so broad as regards US tax evasion, and the subject matter so complex, that your extradition is a virtual inevitability.
OK but that's a pretty narrow field.
Any EU state can summarily issue a warrant for your arrest and stick you in jail for months, for anything, without trial. Even something that's not a crime here.
I agree the EAW is far too broad, in particular as regards things ('sex by surprise') which are not crimes in the extraditing country.
My point is that the situation is little better with the US, which has issued warrants for things not crimes in the UK, and where the crime was not even committed in the US. The classic example being that of the Natwest Three.
The history of the EAW is interesting, of course. The UK was dealing with Irish Republican terrorism at the time, and wanted to streamline the process of extraditing (accused) IRA terrorists from Catholic countries with courts (and public opinion) that were sympathetic to the notion that these were the acts of freedom fighters.
Like all things that give power to governments, it has gone far too far, and needs to be pruned back.
"If Remain wins, it's clear the UK just can't get enough of the EU."
Mr Eagles. I agree. If Remain win, then Remainers should support further integration because it's what they are voting for.
That's where it varies from the Scottish Referendum. Winning meant a little more devolution.
Remain winning means less independence, a rump Parliament, a common currency, a European army, and a European defence policy. There's no pretence, but they just don't say it out loud.
Well done for your honesty.
Come off it. Surely you realise this is just scaremongering cobblers, and just as bad as Osborne's dodgy reports?
Donald Trump signed off on a controversial business deal that was designed to deprive the US Government of tens of millions of dollars in tax, the Telegraph can disclose.
The billionaire approved a $50 million investment in a company – only for the deal to be rewritten several weeks later as a ‘loan’.
Experts say that the effect of this move was to skirt vast tax liabilities, and court papers seen by the Telegraph allege that the deal amounted to fraud.
Independent tax accountants and lawyers said that the documents Mr Trump signed – copies of which were obtained by this newspaper as part of a three-month investigation - contained “red flags” indicating the deal was irregular.
But the Republican presumptive presidential nominee signed nonetheless.
Well forget Brexit or Bremain, I have a free weekend and have ordered Uncharted 4. Gf is away visiting her mum in Switzerland and I have no other plans. It's going to be amazing.
The Director General of the WTO will be coming to London in early June and explain why Brexit is bad for the UK.
If Remain was really confident of a win, they wouldn't keep asking for help from outsiders.
But what does the DG of the World Trade Organisation know about World Trade.
Yep, the people at the top of these international quangos are always to be trusted. I mean, just look at Christine Lagarde. Oh wait.
The heads of international bodies - whether the IMF or the World Bank or the WTO - desire stability. That's where their interest lies, and anything which threatens to destabilise is to be discouraged.
They do not have the interests of the British people in mind. But that does not make them stooges of Remain or David Cameron. It makes them people who have their own interests and who promote those interests relentlessly; as they should, as it is their job to do so.
That's well put. Linked to that, they believe that power is best exercised by technocrats, who are answerable to supranational institutions, rather than by national legislatures who have the potential to do stupid things.
I understand that the case for saying the online polls overstate Leave is that Leavers are more politically engaged and probably older/retired so have more time to answer online surveys. This (allegedly) means they are likely to respond more quickly than Remainers and because online polling systems stop accepting responses from the various defined groups of voters when sampling quotas have been filled if the split of Leave/Remain amongst quick responders is not the same as the population as a whole the result of the poll will be unrepresentative.
This theory seems to have some logic to it - and clearly the punters and bookies believe it - but what is the counter-argument against phone polling? If we accept the online polls are right the phone polls must exaggerate Remain so why would Remainers be more likely to respond to phone calls than Leavers?
Martin Boon thinks that telephone polls pick up too many left wing voters; Yougov think they pick up too many graduates. Both of these might skew the findings in favour of Remain.
I also suspect Remainers are simply less likely to vote. Differential turnout might also make it much closer than the (phone) polls suggest.
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
Hollande has already threatened us BTW, though at least he did it in France, unlike Obama who had the red carpet rolled out at UK tax payers expense to threaten... The UK taxpayer.
That was the point of not return for me and the Posh Boys.
To be fair, US Netflix is a fair bit better than UK Netflix. Overall I find it worth the price but it's frustrating how many streaming services you need to patch together to get the stuff you want. I'm just not convinced that the absence of certain things reflects the lack of demand, more that Netflix do enough to keep subscribers despite those absences. I'd happily pay 2-3 times more for a single comprehensive provider.
The likes of Netflix are crying out for programming that will attract new customers, justify increasing prices, and reduce churn. If there really was a substantial demand for the sort of European programmes that everyone claims they would love to watch they would be part of the package now, and no country would need the quotas.
It's not as though a streaming service is a finite resource, there isn't a limited schedule that a conventional broadcaster has to deal with. Nor is there anything inhibiting small producers and broadcasters getting their programming online. It wouldn't take much effort to simply dump everything on Youtube with adverts to earn money if they simply want to reach a wide audience.
"If Remain wins, it's clear the UK just can't get enough of the EU."
Mr Eagles. I agree. If Remain win, then Remainers should support further integration because it's what they are voting for.
That's where it varies from the Scottish Referendum. Winning meant a little more devolution.
Remain winning means less independence, a rump Parliament, a common currency, a European army, and a European defence policy. There's no pretence, but they just don't say it out loud.
Well done for your honesty.
Come off it. Surely you realise this is just scaremongering cobblers, and just as bad as Osborne's dodgy reports?
What would you have said in 1975 if someone had suggested to you then that the EU and Britain's participation would be at the stage they are now in 2016 without a further public vote? 'Scaremongering cobblers' is quite near the mark in my estimation.
I posted the following on the previous thread. "Anecdote alert. I almost never answer “unknown” phone calls and, although I get regular emails from Yougov and I’m saving up to get to 5000 points(!) I’ve never been asked about the EU by them. I’ve not been canvassed, either, although there have been a couple of pub chats, during one of which I was told that “as I wasn’t really English, I wouldn’t understand why they (the speaker) felt so strongly about Leaving".” The ‘not really English’ is due to me being part Welsh! During the other chat, with some Labour Party members, everyone was for RemaIN!”
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
Hollande has already threatened BTW, though at least he did it in France, unlike Obama who had the red carpet rolled out at UK tax payers expense to threaten... The UK taxpayer.
That was the point of not return for me and the Posh Boys.
There were some reports Trump was planning to visit the UK pre referendum - would he intervene? what might the effect be?
General Rose's comments on how EU law restricts UK combat effectiveness are devastating and expose Remain's outrageous lies about us being 'safer' in the EU.
A man who knows his own mind, in contrast with Remain going around intimidating doddery senile generals to sign one of their ghastly letters.
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
Hollande has already threatened BTW, though at least he did it in France, unlike Obama who had the red carpet rolled out at UK tax payers expense to threaten... The UK taxpayer.
That was the point of not return for me and the Posh Boys.
There were some reports Trump was planning to visit the UK pre referendum - would he intervene? what might the effect be?
I haven't heard that but it wouldn't surprise me if he rolled into the UK and tried to stir things up against the "establishment"... It's what he does isn't it?
The more I read during this campaign the more leave remind me of a dog chasing cars. Absolutely desperate to catch one but absolutely no idea what to do with it. Year's of whining about a referendum then not a single idea about how to win it, when they get one.
You are completely misquoting The Joker there!
"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... do things!"
Perhaps that's because I spend time with members of the same sex rather than memorising memorable movie quotations. You should never ever try it!
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
Hollande has already threatened BTW, though at least he did it in France, unlike Obama who had the red carpet rolled out at UK tax payers expense to threaten... The UK taxpayer.
That was the point of not return for me and the Posh Boys.
There were some reports Trump was planning to visit the UK pre referendum - would he intervene? what might the effect be?
I haven't heard that but it wouldn't surprise me if he rolled into the UK and tried to stir things up against the "establishment"... It's what he does isn't it?
"Sunil J. Prasannan Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shut-down of E.U. Directives entering U.K. law, until the Great British public's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!"
I understand that the case for saying the online polls overstate Leave is that Leavers are more politically engaged and probably older/retired so have more time to answer online surveys. This (allegedly) means they are likely to respond more quickly than Remainers and because online polling systems stop accepting responses from the various defined groups of voters when sampling quotas have been filled if the split of Leave/Remain amongst quick responders is not the same as the population as a whole the result of the poll will be unrepresentative.
This theory seems to have some logic to it - and clearly the punters and bookies believe it - but what is the counter-argument against phone polling? If we accept the online polls are right the phone polls must exaggerate Remain so why would Remainers be more likely to respond to phone calls than Leavers?
Martin Boon thinks that telephone polls pick up too many left wing voters; Yougov think they pick up too many graduates. Both of these might skew the findings in favour of Remain.
I also suspect Remainers are simply less likely to vote. Differential turnout might also make it much closer than the (phone) polls suggest.
Turnout is key. My icon Mrs Duffy has (for many weeks) been the type of voter REMAIN assumes it will get to vote for them. Solid Labour, northern, working class and some pollsters report that Labour voters will vote 3:1 or even a 4:1 split in favour of REMAIN.... People who have immigration as their top concern and are being asked by the Tory Leader to go and vote for more immigration... It does not compute.
PS Today Mrs Duffy says "I do not want to be European".
However, they said that nothing compared with Mr Hilton’s ultimate blue-sky plan, formulated when the Tories were in opposition, to buy cloudbusting technology to provide Britain with more sunshine.
The more I read during this campaign the more leave remind me of a dog chasing cars. Absolutely desperate to catch one but absolutely no idea what to do with it. Year's of whining about a referendum then not a single idea about how to win it, when they get one.
You are completely misquoting The Joker there!
"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... do things!"
Perhaps that's because I spend time with the opposite sex rather than memorising chunks of cartoon character dialogue. You should try it sometime.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
Hollande has already threatened BTW, though at least he did it in France, unlike Obama who had the red carpet rolled out at UK tax payers expense to threaten... The UK taxpayer.
That was the point of not return for me and the Posh Boys.
There were some reports Trump was planning to visit the UK pre referendum - would he intervene? what might the effect be?
I haven't heard that but it wouldn't surprise me if he rolled into the UK and tried to stir things up against the "establishment"... It's what he does isn't it?
"Sunil J. Prasannan Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shut-down of E.U. Directives entering U.K. law, until the Great British public's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!"
However, they said that nothing compared with Mr Hilton’s ultimate blue-sky plan, formulated when the Tories were in opposition, to buy cloudbusting technology to provide Britain with more sunshine.
Is that for real?
It appears so.
No wonder Dave won a majority when he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.
Alex Wickham BOOM. Eddie Izzard's election hotel bills declared as national spend despite clearly being part of local campaign: https://t.co/ey1FEsYSbD
Alex Wickham BOOM. Eddie Izzard's election hotel bills declared as national spend despite clearly being part of local campaign: https://t.co/ey1FEsYSbD
"They did it too" is not much of a defence.
Maybe not but looks if this matter goes to law a general election will be needed as everyone seems to have fallen into the same trap. Suspect it will slowly be dropped
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Hillary Clinton is sending her attack dogs out to attack Trump about his buying real estate during a market downturn (what the hell else would you do?).
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (or Pocahontas according to Trump) is attacking Trump on this front.
According to the networks Warren and her husband flipped 5 houses in the late 1990s making profits of between 300% and over 650% on each one.
I also suspect Remainers are simply less likely to vote.
No they will be marching into the polling booths driven by their enthusiasm for the Audiovisual Media Services Directive.
"What do we want? A 20% quota for EU sourced programming! When do we want it? Now!"
There must be a strong demand for EU sourced programming. Back in the day, people would travel to Amsterdam and come back with bags full of videos containing "EU sourced programming"!
Haven't we all felt like that about Mr Cameron recently?
Of course there are a pile of ex-generals who don't like Cameron, but they're not particularly smart turning on *their* man. Non of their preferred alternative rightwing tories could win a plurality, even against corbyn.
Alex Wickham BOOM. Eddie Izzard's election hotel bills declared as national spend despite clearly being part of local campaign: https://t.co/ey1FEsYSbD
"They did it too" is not much of a defence.
Yes it is. If everyone did the same thing then it shows that either it is OK or the Electoral Commission needs to up its game and set clear rules for next time rather than cherrypicking political opponents and whining about them.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
I need it to strengthened by July for my holiday and to be honest in the event of leave the opinion seems to be that it will fall by 10-15% almost immediately
Haven't we all felt like that about Mr Cameron recently?
Of course there are a pile of ex-generals who don't like Cameron, but they're not particularly smart turning on *their* man. Non of their preferred alternative rightwing tories could win a plurality, even against corbyn.
And they *really* don't want Corbyn.
But Cameron is going anyway and won't be fighting Corbyn no matter what.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Disagree: we have a massive current account deficit, while the Eurozone has the opposite. As interest rates rise, funding our external deficit is going to get increasingly expensive.
I have some excellent research from Melissa Kidd at Redburn (who's an outstanding economist, who I'd recommend to anyone), on the UK economy if you're interested.
The more I read during this campaign the more leave remind me of a dog chasing cars. Absolutely desperate to catch one but absolutely no idea what to do with it. Year's of whining about a referendum then not a single idea about how to win it, when they get one.
You are completely misquoting The Joker there!
"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... do things!"
Perhaps that's because I spend time with the opposite sex rather than memorising chunks of cartoon character dialogue. You should try it sometime.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
I need it to strengthened by July for my holiday and to be honest in the event of leave the opinion seems to be that it will fall by 10-15% almost immediately
Hence my word ultimately. July may be too soon given the vote is end of June but I think a fall of 15% if it occurs (unlikely) would be reversed sooner rather than later.
Haven't we all felt like that about Mr Cameron recently?
Of course there are a pile of ex-generals who don't like Cameron, but they're not particularly smart turning on *their* man. Non of their preferred alternative rightwing tories could win a plurality, even against corbyn.
And they *really* don't want Corbyn.
Against Corbyn, probably any Tory could win the election, apart from Osborne.
Is the World Trade Organisation an EU stooge or an Osborne stooge?
The EU has been a permanent member of the WTO since its foundation in 1995, the only member that isn't a country.
Because the EU is a customs union, rather than merely a free trade bloc, that's probably a practical necessity.
When I did history at school, I always dwelled on the similarity between the words "sovereign" and "Zollverein", but I'm sure they must be coincidental.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
I need it to strengthened by July for my holiday and to be honest in the event of leave the opinion seems to be that it will fall by 10-15% almost immediately
Hence my word ultimately. July may be too soon given the vote is end of June but I think a fall of 15% if it occurs (unlikely) would be reversed sooner rather than later.
I am sure it will as you say be reversed ultimately but not sure sooner will be less than two years
I also suspect Remainers are simply less likely to vote.
No they will be marching into the polling booths driven by their enthusiasm for the Audiovisual Media Services Directive.
"What do we want? A 20% quota for EU sourced programming! When do we want it? Now!"
There must be a strong demand for EU sourced programming. Back in the day, people would travel to Amsterdam and come back with bags full of videos containing "EU sourced programming"!
Um, I just popped down to the basement of Lovejoy's on Charing Cross Road. But that was a long time ago
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Disagree: we have a massive current account deficit, while the Eurozone has the opposite. As interest rates rise, funding our external deficit is going to get increasingly expensive.
I have some excellent research from Melissa Kidd at Redburn (who's an outstanding economist, who I'd recommend to anyone), on the UK economy if you're interested.
We have a bigger deficit because we are doing better. It is a symptom not a cause. If current account balances were all that mattered then Greece would be a tremendous success story and not a disaster.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Disagree: we have a massive current account deficit, while the Eurozone has the opposite. As interest rates rise, funding our external deficit is going to get increasingly expensive.
I have some excellent research from Melissa Kidd at Redburn (who's an outstanding economist, who I'd recommend to anyone), on the UK economy if you're interested.
We have a bigger deficit because we are doing better. It is a symptom not a cause. If current account balances were all that mattered then Greece would be a tremendous success story and not a disaster.
Spain, Portugal, Greece 2007 had one thing in common: they all ran enormous current account deficits. (And Italy and Ireland ran medium sized ones.)
Did that mean their economies were in great shape?
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
If they came out with a positive message it wouldn't be all that bad, but everything is so relentlessly negative right now. Kinda depressing...
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
I need it to strengthened by July for my holiday and to be honest in the event of leave the opinion seems to be that it will fall by 10-15% almost immediately
Hence my word ultimately. July may be too soon given the vote is end of June but I think a fall of 15% if it occurs (unlikely) would be reversed sooner rather than later.
I am sure it will as you say be reversed ultimately but not sure sooner will be less than two years
I think even in the event of a Leave vote the pound will be stronger with 12 months let alone 2 years.
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Disagree: we have a massive current account deficit, while the Eurozone has the opposite. As interest rates rise, funding our external deficit is going to get increasingly expensive.
I have some excellent research from Melissa Kidd at Redburn (who's an outstanding economist, who I'd recommend to anyone), on the UK economy if you're interested.
We have a bigger deficit because we are doing better. It is a symptom not a cause. If current account balances were all that mattered then Greece would be a tremendous success story and not a disaster.
Spain, Portugal, Greece 2007 had one thing in common: they all ran enormous current account deficits. (And Italy and Ireland ran medium sized ones.)
Did that mean their economies were in great shape?
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
If they came out with a positive message it wouldn't be all that bad, but everything is so relentlessly negative right now. Kinda depressing...
Hilton seems to be making the point that if we come out, the people whose lives will really change are the elite telling us to stay in.
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
If they came out with a positive message it wouldn't be all that bad, but everything is so relentlessly negative right now. Kinda depressing...
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Disagree: we have a massive current account deficit, while the Eurozone has the opposite. As interest rates rise, funding our external deficit is going to get increasingly expensive.
I have some excellent research from Melissa Kidd at Redburn (who's an outstanding economist, who I'd recommend to anyone), on the UK economy if you're interested.
We have a bigger deficit because we are doing better. It is a symptom not a cause. If current account balances were all that mattered then Greece would be a tremendous success story and not a disaster.
Spain, Portugal, Greece 2007 had one thing in common: they all ran enormous current account deficits. (And Italy and Ireland ran medium sized ones.)
Did that mean their economies were in great shape?
No. That's not all they had in common either.
Nevertheless, a current account deficit is a sign that you need to import capital. A current account deficit means you are either:
(a) selling off UK assets to those abroad (and therefore causing a long term flow of dividends/rent abroad) (b) selling off assets held by UK citizens and businesses (and therefore reducing the flow of assets into the UK from abroad) or (c) issuing debt (either at the corporate, personal or government level), which - of course - means that there will need to be corresponding interest payments abroad in the medium term
The stock of UK foreign liabilities is higher now than it has ever been. Only the US - and economy more than 6x larger than us, and much more self reliant in terms of natural resources - has a greater quantity of foreign liabilities.
You may regard consumers spending more than their incomes to buy new iPhones as a sign of a strong economy. You would be wrong.
On the plus side, at least bastard white men know they have the same electoral weight as lovely Indian grandmas [which also makes me wonder at their definition of black, to be honest].
Just written some innuendo so horrendous it could've been the product of Mr. Eagles. Hmm. May have to delete it.
So we've had Lagarde, Obama, Brown, Blair, Cameron, Osborne, the IMF, the OECD, the IFS, NIESR, no doubt B and Q, MFI, TGIF, C and A and every other acronym telling us how awful it will all be.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
If they came out with a positive message it wouldn't be all that bad, but everything is so relentlessly negative right now. Kinda depressing...
Hilton seems to be making the point that if we come out, the people whose lives will really change are the elite telling us to stay in.
On the plus side, at least bastard white men know they have the same electoral weight as lovely Indian grandmas [which also makes me wonder at their definition of black, to be honest].
Just written some innuendo so horrendous it could've been the product of Mr. Eagles. Hmm. May have to delete it.
On unrelated news.. I hope all PB Tories received their two ballot papers for the referendum...
You seem to have missed the point that one crowd of Conservative Remain supporters is supposed to be in Sussex, the other Kent. I know there are some coastal gravel pits that straddle the two - maybe they were there? Canvassing the ducks perhaps...
I am interested in the pound as I am holidaying in Tuscany in July. In August 2015 I received 1.3350 euros when paying my deposit and yesterday I received 1.2648 on making the final payment for our Villa. Today I notice the best tourist rate is now 1.2980 and looks like going higher. Is this because the City have all but called it for remain hence the strengthening pound
I expect the pound will ultimately strengthen whether we vote Leave or Remain. The fundamentals are on the side of Britain being stronger than the Eurozone still either way and the market generally dislikes uncertainty. Once we have a certain outcome, even if it is Leave, we will ultimately see the pound rise against the Euro.
Agree; I expect to see the market rise initially, whatever happens, then fall sharply if Leave has won.
You seem to have missed the point that one crowd of Conservative Remain supporters is supposed to be in Sussex, the other Kent. I know there are some coastal gravel pits that straddle the two - maybe they were there? Canvassing the ducks perhaps...
Yeah, they were being cost efficient and used the same set of activists for a photo op for two neighboring areas. The horror!
You seem to have missed the point that one crowd of Conservative Remain supporters is supposed to be in Sussex, the other Kent. I know there are some coastal gravel pits that straddle the two - maybe they were there? Canvassing the ducks perhaps...
Comments
"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... do things!"
My point is that the situation is little better with the US, which has issued warrants for things not crimes in the UK, and where the crime was not even committed in the US. The classic example being that of the Natwest Three.
The history of the EAW is interesting, of course. The UK was dealing with Irish Republican terrorism at the time, and wanted to streamline the process of extraditing (accused) IRA terrorists from Catholic countries with courts (and public opinion) that were sympathetic to the notion that these were the acts of freedom fighters.
Like all things that give power to governments, it has gone far too far, and needs to be pruned back.
Hollande has already threatened us BTW, though at least he did it in France, unlike Obama who had the red carpet rolled out at UK tax payers expense to threaten... The UK taxpayer.
That was the point of not return for me and the Posh Boys.
It's not as though a streaming service is a finite resource, there isn't a limited schedule that a conventional broadcaster has to deal with. Nor is there anything inhibiting small producers and broadcasters getting their programming online. It wouldn't take much effort to simply dump everything on Youtube with adverts to earn money if they simply want to reach a wide audience.
"Anecdote alert. I almost never answer “unknown” phone calls and, although I get regular emails from Yougov and I’m saving up to get to 5000 points(!) I’ve never been asked about the EU by them.
I’ve not been canvassed, either, although there have been a couple of pub chats, during one of which I was told that “as I wasn’t really English, I wouldn’t understand why they (the speaker) felt so strongly about Leaving".” The ‘not really English’ is due to me being part Welsh!
During the other chat, with some Labour Party members, everyone was for RemaIN!”
Maybe I should call myself Old King Coel?
"What do we want? A 20% quota for EU sourced programming! When do we want it? Now!"
Sunil J. PrasannanDonald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shut-down of E.U. Directives entering U.K. law, until the Great British public's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!"PS Today Mrs Duffy says "I do not want to be European".
Is that for real?
No wonder Dave won a majority when he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (or Pocahontas according to Trump) is attacking Trump on this front.
According to the networks Warren and her husband flipped 5 houses in the late 1990s making profits of between 300% and over 650% on each one.
Did she read 'The Art of The Deal'?
And they *really* don't want Corbyn.
"Come off it. Surely you realise this is just scaremongering cobblers, and just as bad as Osborne's dodgy reports?"
How old were you in 1975?
I have some excellent research from Melissa Kidd at Redburn (who's an outstanding economist, who I'd recommend to anyone), on the UK economy if you're interested.
https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/spot-the-difference.png?w=900
At one point it was only myself and @Bob__Sykes from Team Con who were honest enough to admit the Tories 2010 campaign was a shambles...
How times change.
You're always going too far. The Atlantic will be fine.
Did that mean their economies were in great shape?
I probably should apologise for going all ageist on you. Sorry.
In 1975, I was a keen Europhile, as were most of the voters. Many of those still living seem to have changed allegiance. Why do you think that is?
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/735488336706445313
Somewhere near the Canaries would be nice.
Be LEAVE!
(a) selling off UK assets to those abroad (and therefore causing a long term flow of dividends/rent abroad)
(b) selling off assets held by UK citizens and businesses (and therefore reducing the flow of assets into the UK from abroad)
or
(c) issuing debt (either at the corporate, personal or government level), which - of course - means that there will need to be corresponding interest payments abroad in the medium term
The stock of UK foreign liabilities is higher now than it has ever been. Only the US - and economy more than 6x larger than us, and much more self reliant in terms of natural resources - has a greater quantity of foreign liabilities.
You may regard consumers spending more than their incomes to buy new iPhones as a sign of a strong economy. You would be wrong.
On the plus side, at least bastard white men know they have the same electoral weight as lovely Indian grandmas [which also makes me wonder at their definition of black, to be honest].
Just written some innuendo so horrendous it could've been the product of Mr. Eagles. Hmm. May have to delete it.
Edit: RobD got there before me
Here an ex Lib Dem govt SPAD writes.... Clearly one who pays no attention to actual research. (pssst - Boris tops the Trust League..)
"It is time for Vote Leave to admit that Boris has been a disaster for them"
http://nicktyrone.com/time-vote-leave-admit-boris-disaster/
Phew
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/735496343972511744
Hoorar for the muzzer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village
I question the poll
You attack the poll
They smear the poll
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/features/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36373649/36165924