Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide:
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide: Remain 8% lead remains
I’m off to London this after to record the first PB/Polling Matters TV Show in our new studios near Victoria. Keiran Pedley and I will, no doubt, spend a lot of time discussing the polling and trying to make sense of it.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
That said, sales of tinfoil are going to go through the roof.
Mike's talking about the repercentaged figures when DKs have been excluded.
BOOM. Eddie Izzard's election hotel bills declared as national spend despite clearly being part of local campaign: https://t.co/ey1FEsYSbD
If Remain was really confident of a win, they wouldn't keep asking for help from outsiders.
I mean, if this is about the difference between undecideds and certains might it be possible to match the header and blurb to the graphic? Just a thought.
Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!
But what does the DG of the World Trade Organisation know about World Trade.
Is he off to France to lecture them on that?
I see this as 53.66 - 46.34 = 7.32 which correctly rounds to 7 though (creates an error to round at headline stage then calculate the difference). The predecessor looks like 54.22 - 45.78 giving a remain lead of 8.44.
To round off the objectless pedantry, excluding DKs, that means Remain lost 13.27% of its lead between those two polls.
If you locked hungry people in KFC for a week, the consumption data wouldn't prove that fried chicken was what they really wanted to eat.
@sunny_hundal: Just spoke to Sister Sledge's US rep. Sal Michaels: he confirms they've pulled out of the Brexit concert https://t.co/iZPYQfHtyH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
They do not have the interests of the British people in mind. But that does not make them stooges of Remain or David Cameron. It makes them people who have their own interests and who promote those interests relentlessly; as they should, as it is their job to do so.
I don't wanna play any more
What can I say?
I'm heading for the door
I can't stand this emotional violence
LEAVE IN SILENCE
Netflix is enormously popular, particularly in the US, with higher satisfaction scores than other rivals and broadcasters, and ever increasing viewing figures. Maybe they are actually doing a good job, and giving people what they want for a fair price, and I find it utterly implausible that anyone else can do a better job of figuring out what programming they should be buying or making.
I understand that the case for saying the online polls overstate Leave is that Leavers are more politically engaged and probably older/retired so have more time to answer online surveys. This (allegedly) means they are likely to respond more quickly than Remainers and because online polling systems stop accepting responses from the various defined groups of voters when sampling quotas have been filled if the split of Leave/Remain amongst quick responders is not the same as the population as a whole the result of the poll will be unrepresentative.
This theory seems to have some logic to it - and clearly the punters and bookies believe it - but what is the counter-argument against phone polling? If we accept the online polls are right the phone polls must exaggerate Remain so why would Remainers be more likely to respond to phone calls than Leavers?
Just let that sink in for a minute.
UK = their servants
Time to #Brexit
UK leaves a free trade bloc and has to negotiate new trade agreements into order to avoid WTO 2% tariffs, ignoring a depreciated pound.
How does this guy know how much tariff we will pay? The deals haven't been negotiated yet. He also seems to have forgotten that Britain has a thumping great trade deficit and so should GAIN from tariffs, if we want to.
I think the lesson we should draw is that Civil Servants don't like extra work foisted upon them.
Perhaps they should be reminded they serve us, not the other way round.
Still, your words will be a comfort when I have to rot in a foreign jail for months for non-payment of euro taxes.
LEAVING is the best way to ensure we retain that sovereignty for our children and their children.
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Ex-General Tells PM To 'Bugger Off' Over Brexit
http://news.sky.com/story/1701753/ex-general-tells-pm-to-bugger-off-over-brexit
I'm perfectly capable on understanding your LEAVE propaganda without undue emphasis.
Mr Eagles. I agree. If Remain win, then Remainers should support further integration because it's what they are voting for.
That's where it varies from the Scottish Referendum. Winning meant a little more devolution.
Remain winning means less independence, a rump Parliament, a common currency, a European army, and a European defence policy. There's no pretence, but they just don't say it out loud.
Well done for your honesty.
I'd say a strong - though tangential - reason for sticking with the status quo is the damage that Brexit could do to what looks like it may be the stirrings of a nascent recovery in many parts of Europe. The last thing anyone wants now, surely, is a period of uncertainty and anything that knocks business and investor confidence. Should there be a negative market reaction to Brexit - and at the very least that is not out of the question - then it will have an impact across the EU. And that is something that will be very bad news for us too.
All signs of a sovereign nation.
BTW won't the French use their nukes against us?
It's LEAVERs who think we aren't (yet are somehow holding a referendum...)
The billionaire approved a $50 million investment in a company – only for the deal to be rewritten several weeks later as a ‘loan’.
Experts say that the effect of this move was to skirt vast tax liabilities, and court papers seen by the Telegraph allege that the deal amounted to fraud.
Independent tax accountants and lawyers said that the documents Mr Trump signed – copies of which were obtained by this newspaper as part of a three-month investigation - contained “red flags” indicating the deal was irregular.
But the Republican presumptive presidential nominee signed nonetheless.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/exclusive-donald-trump-signed-off-deal-designed-to-deprive-us-of/
"You're reading too much into my very subtle pop music references."
Very probably, but there's truth in jest. The direction of travel is consistent and I remember 1975 very well.
"Political Union? We're voting on a Common Market." There was no reference to tinfoil hats but the 1975 equivalent was swivel-eyed and Tony Benn.
One of the few things he got right.
I wonder if they will be stupid enough to roll out Merkel and Hollande to try it as well.
And still....only 21% of people believe they will be personally worse off if we leave the EU.
If we stay in the EU, we'll be staring down the Barrel Of A Gun.
Accrington StanleyEast 17? Who are they?"You're reading too much into my very subtle pop music references."
Like this young American group ...
"You can check out any time you like, But you can never leave."
The Establishment didn't even try to be impartial in 1975, but they're made some effort this time. Not totally successfully though. But leaving? If Remain wins, you can kiss goodbye to any more Referenda - this has been too tight for comfort.
Any EU state can summarily issue a warrant for your arrest and stick you in jail for months, for anything, without trial. Even something that's not a crime here.
LEAVING is the best way to ensure we retain that sovereignty for our children and their children.
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Mr. P, I actually feel some sympathy for the 'Brexit' music organisers. It's not their fault moronic musicians signed up without realising that 'Brexit' was a reference to the UK leaving the EU.