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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    you end up agreeing it's bad party management.

    Why do you place any value on party management?

    The Lib Dems have good party management. All 8 of them. Much good it does them.

    Labour have NO party management. Nobody cares.

    The SNP have brilliant party management, and are the sleaziest party at Westminster.

    The Tories are in government, and likely to remain so regardless of how the kids eject the toys from their pram
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Scott_P said:

    Generally disputes have two parties.

    And yet the formulation repeated ad nauseum is...

    Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.

    Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.

    That bastard Cameron...

    Does not compute
    Perhaps you might consider why so many tories, including on here, are disappointed with him.
    Because he's opposing them and he's winning. That's all.
    Actually the reasons why are irrelevant, I can't imagine a time when so many of his "side" want him to lose. I do, always have done, but this is about tories. It seems they loathe him far more than his supposed enemies do.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Generally disputes have two parties.

    And yet the formulation repeated ad nauseum is...

    Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.

    Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.

    That bastard Cameron...

    Does not compute
    The standard way of dealing with difficult people is to smile sweetly and let them disappear up their own arseholes in search of the Holy Grail. Dave and George have taken the poke a hornets nest approach and are wondering why they are getting stung.Really Cameron has just screwed up on this, it's bad party management and all needless, he would have won the referendum any way and with no-one to fight the various leavers could only turn in on themselves. Instead he has given them a target, a purpose and more importantly a sense of being wronged.

    Who's the fkwit ?
    Wrong. Again.

    There is a large constituency who wants out of the EU. Kippers, the Moggster, IDS, et al. Fine, Dave realised he wasn't winning or might not win unless he gave these people something they wanted.

    S'called politics.

    Dave gave them the referendum, he won the election, we have a referendum, and now...there's all hell to pay.

    Whingeing Leavers should grow up.
    Hmmm

    once you've got passed the defensive jerk you end up agreeing it's bad party management.
    well Dave couldn't wish away the anti-EU-ers could he? So he was stuck with them and as such I actually think he managed them well by giving them their referendum.

    As with the EU, so the Conservative Party MPs - I wouldn't have started from here.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    SeanT said:

    Mr. T, is she intending to vote Leave?

    Possibly. She is undecided.

    Incidentally and way off topic, but more cheering than endless euro-feuds, a cursory gance at Liveleak and YouTube suggests that ISIS are now getting absolutely shredded.

    They're under vicious attack from Assad, Putin, the Kurds and the Yanks in Syria, and the Iranians, the Shia, the Kurds and America and even Sunni tribes in Iraq.

    Right now armies are preparing to retake Raqqa and Fallujah. There are reports ISIS have been reduced to feeding their under-performing officers to dogs, pour encourager les autres, and shooting dead anyone in Fallujah who wants to flee or surrender. This is not the behaviour of a swaggering Caliphate.

    Inshallah, they will be exterminated soon. The videos (NSFW) make it clear the extermination has begun.
    Trouble is, when it does fall apart, there will be a lot of battle-hardened, trained killers going home -- wherever home is.
    Sheffield, an NHS doctor has joined them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    Scott_P said:

    Generally disputes have two parties.

    And yet the formulation repeated ad nauseum is...

    Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.

    Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.

    That bastard Cameron...

    Does not compute
    Perhaps you might consider why so many tories, including on here, are disappointed with him.
    Because he's opposing them and he's winning. That's all.
    Actually the reasons why are irrelevant, I can't imagine a time when so many of his "side" want him to lose. I do, always have done, but this is about tories. It seems they loathe him far more than his supposed enemies do.
    Opposition and enemy, etc...
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited May 2016

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    Cameron will undoubtedly win a VoC. But what matters is by how much: a VoC is not an election. How does a PM look if 40% percent of his party has expressed 'no confidence' in him? If this does happen it will be fascinating.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.

    The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.

    Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.

    I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.

    So it won't be a shock.

    But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
    Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.

    I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
    He should have taken on the Euroheadbangers when he first became leader. His tactic of tiptoeing around the problem and fostering the belief that he was really on the fence about the EU has led him to a situation in which he could well be about to join the long list of Tory premiers whose career foundered on the Eurorocks.
    Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
    He has indeed appeased the rebels, but at what cost? His party is divided, possibly beyond repair, his government is left weakened and barely in control of events and the UK has lost influence with its allies. And it seems highly unlikely that most of the Leavers will meekly accept the result - they will declare the process unfair and continue to demand vetoes and draw red lines against whatever the EU does.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Scott_P said:

    you end up agreeing it's bad party management.

    Why do you place any value on party management?

    The Lib Dems have good party management. All 8 of them. Much good it does them.

    Labour have NO party management. Nobody cares.

    The SNP have brilliant party management, and are the sleaziest party at Westminster.

    The Tories are in government, and likely to remain so regardless of how the kids eject the toys from their pram
    Well let's see there are 4 years left of this Parliament and the PM can't guarantee getting legislation through.

    Seems you have forgotten the point of government is to govern not just sit in the office.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. T, I read earlier of the Fallujah offensive.

    It does seem a while since ISIS made any gains.

    That said, once ISIS' territory is whittled down, pressure on them may diminish as Assad et al. focus on other foes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Steve Hilton was on R5 this afternoon. Very interesting guy to listen to* (in you switch off to the nonsense anti-Tory anti-Leaver presenters who try to paint him as a racist Thatcher-rite).

    * said this in the past when he did 3hrs with Joe Rogan and was allowed to talk freely about his view of the world.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And another...

    @aljwhite: Alesha Dixon Quits Anti-EU Music Festival https://t.co/WNsGUUqTxF via @jimwaterson @BuzzFeedUK
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    you end up agreeing it's bad party management.

    Why do you place any value on party management?

    The Lib Dems have good party management. All 8 of them. Much good it does them.

    Labour have NO party management. Nobody cares.

    The SNP have brilliant party management, and are the sleaziest party at Westminster.

    The Tories are in government, and likely to remain so regardless of how the kids eject the toys from their pram
    The problem is that the Conservatives have really ceased governing. What on earth have they achieved over the past year?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    PeterC said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    Cameron will undoubtedly win a VoC. But what matters is by how much: a VoC is not an election. How does a PM look if 40% percent of his party has expressed 'no confidence' in him? If this does happen it will be fascinating.
    Before any vote of confidence it'll be time for the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and his team to start rifling through their little black books.

    Plus Michael Gove will be out defending Dave.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Generally disputes have two parties.

    And yet the formulation repeated ad nauseum is...

    Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.

    Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.

    That bastard Cameron...

    Does not compute
    The standard way of dealing with difficult people is to smile sweetly and let them disappear up their own arseholes in search of the Holy Grail. Dave and George have taken the poke a hornets nest approach and are wondering why they are getting stung.Really Cameron has just screwed up on this, it's bad party management and all needless, he would have won the referendum any way and with no-one to fight the various leavers could only turn in on themselves. Instead he has given them a target, a purpose and more importantly a sense of being wronged.

    Who's the fkwit ?
    Wrong. Again.

    There is a large constituency who wants out of the EU. Kippers, the Moggster, IDS, et al. Fine, Dave realised he wasn't winning or might not win unless he gave these people something they wanted.

    S'called politics.

    Dave gave them the referendum, he won the election, we have a referendum, and now...there's all hell to pay.

    Whingeing Leavers should grow up.
    Hmmm

    once you've got passed the defensive jerk you end up agreeing it's bad party management.
    well Dave couldn't wish away the anti-EU-ers could he? So he was stuck with them and as such I actually think he managed them well by giving them their referendum.

    As with the EU, so the Conservative Party MPs - I wouldn't have started from here.
    I actually agreed with him giving them the vote, my point was simple he should have left them to their own devices. farage would soon squabble with Boris , IDS with Aaron Banks.

    Remain would still win without Dave campaigning because one of the points I agree with Mssrs Meeks and Nabavi going in to this, is Leave have done bugger all to prepare for it.

    Instead with his jumping in to front the campaign he has given the opposition a sense of grievance and a rallying point.He has not killed the issue but left it bubbling like a caldera.

    His best job was in the Indyref when he stayed out of it completely. he should have done the same this time round.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    PeterC said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    Cameron will undoubtedly win a VoC. But what matters is by how much: a VoC is not an election. How does a PM look if 40% percent of his party has expressed 'no confidence' in him? If this does happen it will be fascinating.
    Before any vote of confidence it'll be time for the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and his team to start rifling through their little black books.

    Plus Michael Gove will be out defending Dave.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it is a secret ballot. What people say and what they do in private are two different things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    And another...

    @aljwhite: Alesha Dixon Quits Anti-EU Music Festival https://t.co/WNsGUUqTxF via @jimwaterson @BuzzFeedUK

    Talking of Britains Got Talent, apparently the sword swallowing guy* has been on not one, not two, but 8 previous other "Got Talent's" shows around the world and because of H&S he isn't allowed to perform the act live..it has to be pre-recorded.

    Makes a bit of a mockery of the Britain bit.

    * don't watch the show, so don't know his name.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Scott_P said:

    And another...

    @aljwhite: Alesha Dixon Quits Anti-EU Music Festival https://t.co/WNsGUUqTxF via @jimwaterson @BuzzFeedUK

    and she is ?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    F**k me.

    Trump in to 3.1

    How was Romney, McCain, Dukakis, Kerry doing in may Polling?
    Who cares? If such daft "iron laws" were anything to go by, Trump would have been laughed out of the race last September...
    In any event, the "iron law" is bullshit. Taking open elections only [like 2016], from the viewpoint of the challenging party.

    1952
    Eisenhower led throughout, and won

    1960
    Kennedy was nip-and-tuck with Nixon, and won narrowly

    1968
    Nixon was nip-and-tuck with Humphrey, and won narrowly

    1988
    Dukakis led May-Aug, but lost

    2000
    Bush led May-Aug, but lost the PV (vagaries of the college saw him elected)

    2008
    Obama was nip-and-tuck with McCain, and won convincingly

    If there's an iron law there, I sure as hell can't discern it, other than no "challenger" who was convincingly behind in May has gone on to win [although there isn't an example of such a weak challenger, anyhow]...
    In 1968 Nixon and Humphrey were not nip-and-tuck until the last few days of the campaign. At one point in September that year there was even serious speculation that Humphrey might be pushed into third place by George Wallace.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    Generally disputes have two parties.

    And yet the formulation repeated ad nauseum is...

    Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.

    Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.

    That bastard Cameron...

    Does not compute
    Perhaps you might consider why so many tories, including on here, are disappointed with him.
    Because he's opposing them and he's winning. That's all.
    No. I expected him to do most of what he's done. He wants to win. It's hardball. Fair enough.

    What I found objectionable was the deal. That was an out and out lie, just the worst. An attempt to hoodwink the entire nation. And then he attempted to sell this shoddy piece of crap as some great reform? And expected me to believe? Because, what, I have an IQ of 3 and I can be fed any old shit?

    What an odious, hypocritical creep. What a nasty piece of work.

    After that the iron entered my soul, with regard to David Cameron, and I judged everything else he did much more harshly. I think others have been through the same process.
    He has lost the benefit of the doubt factor
  • The mural is pretty offensive but I'm glad someone has done it if only because it seems some people still are interested in the future of the country rather than celebrity trivia.

    We are only 4 weeks from the big day and hardly anyone has put posters out. People seem to be engaging as much as they would for a PCC election in November.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    PeterC said:

    PeterC said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    Cameron will undoubtedly win a VoC. But what matters is by how much: a VoC is not an election. How does a PM look if 40% percent of his party has expressed 'no confidence' in him? If this does happen it will be fascinating.
    Before any vote of confidence it'll be time for the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and his team to start rifling through their little black books.

    Plus Michael Gove will be out defending Dave.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it is a secret ballot. What people say and what they do in private are two different things.
    They'll make them do what happened in 1995, and make some Tory MPs wave their filled in ballot papers to the media.

    The pressure will be unbearable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    F**k me.

    Trump in to 3.1

    How was Romney, McCain, Dukakis, Kerry doing in may Polling?
    Who cares? If such daft "iron laws" were anything to go by, Trump would have been laughed out of the race last September...
    In any event, the "iron law" is bullshit. Taking open elections only [like 2016], from the viewpoint of the challenging party.

    1952
    Eisenhower led throughout, and won

    1960
    Kennedy was nip-and-tuck with Nixon, and won narrowly

    1968
    Nixon was nip-and-tuck with Humphrey, and won narrowly

    1988
    Dukakis led May-Aug, but lost

    2000
    Bush led May-Aug, but lost the PV (vagaries of the college saw him elected)

    2008
    Obama was nip-and-tuck with McCain, and won convincingly

    If there's an iron law there, I sure as hell can't discern it, other than no "challenger" who was convincingly behind in May has gone on to win [although there isn't an example of such a weak challenger, anyhow]...
    There's no 'iron law'. It's just pointless getting excited about Polling in May when one party is still in the primary process.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.
    I'm doing a thread on that next week
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Tom Harris heads today's 5@5 - Any Tory who challenges Cameron after the referendum is committing political suicide https://t.co/ctVZAqOgHx
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.
    I'm doing a thread on that next week
    I imagine that a lot depends on the prevailing point of view. Shy Remain may well exist in places like Havering; Shy Leave may exist in places like Camden.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.

    The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.

    Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.

    I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.

    So it won't be a shock.

    But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
    Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.

    I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
    He should have taken on the Euroheadbangers when he first became leader. His tactic of tiptoeing around the problem and fostering the belief that he was really on the fence about the EU has led him to a situation in which he could well be about to join the long list of Tory premiers whose career foundered on the Eurorocks.
    Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
    He has indeed appeased the rebels, but at what cost? His party is divided, possibly beyond repair, his government is left weakened and barely in control of events and the UK has lost influence with its allies. And it seems highly unlikely that most of the Leavers will meekly accept the result - they will declare the process unfair and continue to demand vetoes and draw red lines against whatever the EU does.
    His party's division predates him. Someone had to face up to the situation. What do you suppose the rebels would have done with no referendum (and in opposition)?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Some good news for Leave. My partner's niece, who has recently turned 18, has come out for Leave because "with the amount we give the EU we could pay for the entire NHS". (Attempts to cast doubt on this statement have been dismissed as establishment lies.)

    I am assured that she is registered to vote. The only possible fly in the ointment is that she is the epitome of the can't-be-arsed teenager. She had to repeat a school year due to non-attendance, considers it a violation of her human rights if she has to put her own plate in the dishwasher etc. So her certainty to vote may be less than the 10/10 she claims.

    Still, the torch has been passed to a new generation of Kippers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    You say Project Fear, some might call it Project Reality.

    If Remain's approach was such patent BS, Leave would be able to rebut it easily
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    It's hard to be certain what pent-up hatreds exist within the senior ranks of the Conservative Party.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    tpfkar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hard to contend there hasn't been a 3-4% swing back to Remain over the last 2 weeks since the Blitzkreig was launched.

    Question is: what is Vote Leave doing? Where are they?

    I presume they are doing something, but it's not visible to man or beast.

    This won't go down well but I think Leave.EU might have done a better job. My dad's reaction to the broadcast last night was "do Vote Leave want us to stay in the EU or something?"
    LEAVE.EU would overall have done a far worse job. But that said LEAVE.EU should have been brought in to run most of the grassroots and leaflet work as that is very patchy.
    No They wouldn't. Because unlike Vote Leave, they at least vaguely have their sh*t together. Check out their social media account numbers and engagement.

    The idea that the bunch of hopeless Tories that run Vote Leave could do better if only they only had the use of UKIP as a sort of 'party that does' is deeply misguided and rather insulting. Accordingly, I gave Leave.EU a small but hopefully useful donation the other week. I wouldn't give the others a penny.
    Isn't the very fact that we're having this discussion the problem? The Leave side are still divided, unhappy, have different visions, and as of last night publishing personal contact details of the other groups. Winning the referendum for out with a clear vision and united campaign would have been hard enough, but like this? If we do vote out, I fear that the negotiations would have a similar tone and be just as fractious - as the different camps want so many different things, and even 'Take Control' can mean whatever you want it to.
    The problem as I see it is that Vote Leave people are naively clinging to a form of 'acceptibility' as defined by their opponents. They think by shunning all things Kipper they are within the pale, but they're not. Nigel and the Kippers did not harm the anti-EU cause by being boorish oafs, they are portrayed as boorish oafs because they are anti-EU. Vote Leave failed completely to appreciate the forces that would be brought to bear against them.
    Nope. Nige and the rest are portrayed as boorish oafs because they are boorish oafs. No more complicated than that.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited May 2016

    PeterC said:

    PeterC said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    Cameron will undoubtedly win a VoC. But what matters is by how much: a VoC is not an election. How does a PM look if 40% percent of his party has expressed 'no confidence' in him? If this does happen it will be fascinating.
    Before any vote of confidence it'll be time for the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and his team to start rifling through their little black books.

    Plus Michael Gove will be out defending Dave.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it is a secret ballot. What people say and what they do in private are two different things.
    They'll make them do what happened in 1995, and make some Tory MPs wave their filled in ballot papers to the media.

    The pressure will be unbearable.
    I can't say I remember that, but Major was in a state of considerable uncertainty. If it did happen is would surely be a breach of process which would attract very hostile coverage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Sean_F said:

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.
    I'm doing a thread on that next week
    I imagine that a lot depends on the prevailing point of view. Shy Remain may well exist in places like Havering; Shy Leave may exist in places like Camden.
    I've been analysing the forced question supplementary. That's proving to be illuminating.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    justin124 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    F**k me.

    Trump in to 3.1

    How was Romney, McCain, Dukakis, Kerry doing in may Polling?
    Who cares? If such daft "iron laws" were anything to go by, Trump would have been laughed out of the race last September...
    In any event, the "iron law" is bullshit. Taking open elections only [like 2016], from the viewpoint of the challenging party.

    1952
    Eisenhower led throughout, and won

    1960
    Kennedy was nip-and-tuck with Nixon, and won narrowly

    1968
    Nixon was nip-and-tuck with Humphrey, and won narrowly

    1988
    Dukakis led May-Aug, but lost

    2000
    Bush led May-Aug, but lost the PV (vagaries of the college saw him elected)

    2008
    Obama was nip-and-tuck with McCain, and won convincingly

    If there's an iron law there, I sure as hell can't discern it, other than no "challenger" who was convincingly behind in May has gone on to win [although there isn't an example of such a weak challenger, anyhow]...
    In 1968 Nixon and Humphrey were not nip-and-tuck until the last few days of the campaign. At one point in September that year there was even serious speculation that Humphrey might be pushed into third place by George Wallace.
    In the earlier period [around May], the lead changed several times.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1968
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.
    Another tick for internet polling. It's anonymous and more closely mirrors a voting booth than disclosing a taboo opinion over the telephone.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    You say Project Fear, some might call it Project Reality.

    Of course it's Project Fear!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    You say Project Fear, some might call it Project Reality.

    If Remain's approach was such patent BS, Leave would be able to rebut it easily

    It is hard to overcome certain propaganda techniques, eg The "big lie" principle that Hitler used against the Jews. (This is by way of example only).

    Remain is putting about huge scare stories, hoping that people (even if they don't believe) will downgrade them to "well something might happen", and this will push enough people over to Remain to win.

    The "Reality" is that if we Leave, there may be some disruption, but nothing horrendous. Then we will continue to grow without the EU holding us back.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    It may not be fashionable to say so, but Nigel Farage is by far Leave's best advocate. He's very effective at getting straight to it. And he clearly cares. I think that matters to a lot of voters.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The "Reality" is that if we Leave, there may be some disruption, but nothing horrendous.

    Maybe not for you. It would be horrendous for lots of people
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    it's about tone. The hysterical edge to the hyperbole in the Leave interviews. The resistance to acknowledging facts (which switched Sarah Wolleston off distributing Leave stuff about the NHS for example, and led to Penny Mordaunt talking nonsense about Turkey, and means they keep using £350 million a week even when it has been completely discredited). The feeling that you can't have a rational conversation with a Brexiteer without them building up a head of steam towards shoutyness.
    So people don't bother to engage or argue. They tell Out campaigners what they think they want to hear as the easiest way out. And are wary of giving much away to pollsters because who'd trust some random organisation that contacts you and asks you stuff about your political opinions?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    The "Reality" is that if we Leave, there may be some disruption, but nothing horrendous.

    Maybe not for you. It would be horrendous for lots of people
    Who would it be "horrendous" for?

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    It may not be fashionable to say so, but Nigel Farage is by far Leave's best advocate. He's very effective at getting straight to it. And he clearly cares. I think that matters to a lot of voters.

    Yes a very perceptive point. Could he be used more widely? its a big gamble.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Threatened men live longest.

    If Leave lose and the first thing that hardline Conservative Leaver MPs do is challenge their victorious leader, they will look utterly ridiculous*. If Leave loses, a period of quiet introspection as to why they lost is the appropriate reaction. The Prime Minister has done nothing that a good campaigner wouldn't do.

    That's the problem really. Remain have campaigned effectively. Leave seem to have been taken aback by this and see it as somehow unfair. One wonders how they thought the referendum was going to be fought.

    Anyway, the referendum is far from over. Instead of mewling like scalded cats, Leavers should be putting their backs into the campaign.

    *(Still more utterly ridiculous)

    You underestimate the ego of politicians, plenty consider themselves humiliated, they can't be made to look any more ridiculous. You think the Eurosceptics in the conservative party are going to humbly line up to shake Cameron's hand if Remain wins?

    Nope, they want blood, Cameron has publicly patronised people who worked so hard to get him elected, they won't forgive him. Great fun to watch.
    Yes, Tory leavers have really disappointed in the campaign. They don't seem to have been battle inoculated. So much so, they haven't had one of their number chosen by ITV to face Cameron.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MrsB said:

    The feeling that you can't have a rational conversation with a Brexiteer without them building up a head of steam towards shoutyness.

    ...or Hitler
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    It may not be fashionable to say so, but Nigel Farage is by far Leave's best advocate. He's very effective at getting straight to it. And he clearly cares. I think that matters to a lot of voters.

    I'm not great fan but the determination to marginalise him has been stupid.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.

    The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.

    Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.

    I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.

    So it won't be a shock.

    But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
    Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.

    I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
    He should have taken on the Euroheadbangers when he first became leader. His tactic of tiptoeing around the problem and fostering the belief that he was really on the fence about the EU has led him to a situation in which he could well be about to join the long list of Tory premiers whose career foundered on the Eurorocks.
    Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
    He has indeed appeased the rebels, but at what cost? His party is divided, possibly beyond repair, his government is left weakened and barely in control of events and the UK has lost influence with its allies. And it seems highly unlikely that most of the Leavers will meekly accept the result - they will declare the process unfair and continue to demand vetoes and draw red lines against whatever the EU does.
    His party's division predates him. Someone had to face up to the situation. What do you suppose the rebels would have done with no referendum (and in opposition)?
    I think Cameron should have taken a leaf out of Blair's book - he crushed opposition within his own party whilst in opposition (by abolishing clause 4) and did it so effectively that it took them 20 years to re-emerge. Cameron should have done something on those lines. He might have lost a few members along the way (as Blair did) but he would have saved himself and his party a great deal of heartache had he given a clear lead from the outset.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    Scott_P said:

    The "Reality" is that if we Leave, there may be some disruption, but nothing horrendous.

    Maybe not for you. It would be horrendous for lots of people
    Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Who would it be "horrendous" for?

    Those who lose their jobs or homes.

    You know, little people... The Elite will be fine either way.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MrsB said:

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    it's about tone. The hysterical edge to the hyperbole in the Leave interviews. The resistance to acknowledging facts (which switched Sarah Wolleston off distributing Leave stuff about the NHS for example, and led to Penny Mordaunt talking nonsense about Turkey, and means they keep using £350 million a week even when it has been completely discredited). The feeling that you can't have a rational conversation with a Brexiteer without them building up a head of steam towards shoutyness.
    So people don't bother to engage or argue. They tell Out campaigners what they think they want to hear as the easiest way out. And are wary of giving much away to pollsters because who'd trust some random organisation that contacts you and asks you stuff about your political opinions?

    And if you are for Leave and told you are (a) racist, (b) stupid, or (c) hurting others - possibly all 3. Why would you tell anyone?

  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    MrsB said:

    tpfkar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hard to contend there hasn't been a 3-4% swing back to Remain over the last 2 weeks since the Blitzkreig was launched.

    Question is: what is Vote Leave doing? Where are they?

    I presume they are doing something, but it's not visible to man or beast.

    This won't go down well but I think Leave.EU might have done a better job. My dad's reaction to the broadcast last night was "do Vote Leave want us to stay in the EU or something?"
    LEAVE.EU would overall have done a far worse job. But that said LEAVE.EU should have been brought in to run most of the grassroots and leaflet work as that is very patchy.
    No They wouldn't. Because unlike Vote Leave, they at least vaguely have their sh*t together. Check out their social media account numbers and engagement.

    The idea that the bunch of hopeless Tories that run Vote Leave could do better if only they only had the use of UKIP as a sort of 'party that does' is deeply misguided and rather insulting. Accordingly, I gave Leave.EU a small but hopefully useful donation the other week. I wouldn't give the others a penny.
    Isn't the very fact that we're having this discussion the problem? The Leave side are still divided, unhappy, have different visions, and as of last night publishing personal contact details of the other groups. Winning the referendum for out with a clear vision and united campaign would have been hard enough, but like this? If we do vote out, I fear that the negotiations would have a similar tone and be just as fractious - as the different camps want so many different things, and even 'Take Control' can mean whatever you want it to.
    The problem as I see it is that Vote Leave people are naively clinging to a form of 'acceptibility' as defined by their opponents. They think by shunning all things Kipper they are within the pale, but they're not. Nigel and the Kippers did not harm the anti-EU cause by being boorish oafs, they are portrayed as boorish oafs because they are anti-EU. Vote Leave failed completely to appreciate the forces that would be brought to bear against them.
    Nope. Nige and the rest are portrayed as boorish oafs because they are boorish oafs. No more complicated than that.
    You are Lord Feldman and I claim my £10.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????
  • Threatened men live longest.

    If Leave lose and the first thing that hardline Conservative Leaver MPs do is challenge their victorious leader, they will look utterly ridiculous*. If Leave loses, a period of quiet introspection as to why they lost is the appropriate reaction. The Prime Minister has done nothing that a good campaigner wouldn't do.

    That's the problem really. Remain have campaigned effectively. Leave seem to have been taken aback by this and see it as somehow unfair. One wonders how they thought the referendum was going to be fought.

    Anyway, the referendum is far from over. Instead of mewling like scalded cats, Leavers should be putting their backs into the campaign.

    *(Still more utterly ridiculous)

    You underestimate the ego of politicians, plenty consider themselves humiliated, they can't be made to look any more ridiculous. You think the Eurosceptics in the conservative party are going to humbly line up to shake Cameron's hand if Remain wins?

    Nope, they want blood, Cameron has publicly patronised people who worked so hard to get him elected, they won't forgive him. Great fun to watch.
    Yes, Tory leavers have really disappointed in the campaign. They don't seem to have been battle inoculated. So much so, they haven't had one of their number chosen by ITV to face Cameron.
    Yes such a surprise that ITV decide who represents LEAVE. Why would Peston do something that his BFF Roland Rudd would approve? Also amazing that Cameron and Osborne appear on consecutive weeks with Peston on his programme and overlook Andrew Neil. Why would they want to help Peston launch his show with its tiny audience?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    Who would it be "horrendous" for?

    Those who lose their jobs or homes.

    You know, little people... The Elite will be fine either way.
    Specifically who will lose their job/home (any worse that the gov handling already)?

    Trade with Europe will continue.

    Other services will continue.

    The Euro problems are causing more risks to us right now than Brexit.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Scott_P said:

    Who would it be "horrendous" for?

    Those who lose their jobs or homes.

    You know, little people... The Elite will be fine either way.
    After the ERM debacle, it is rich for any Europhile to claim to be concerned about little people's jobs or homes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    MrsB said:

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    it's about tone. The hysterical edge to the hyperbole in the Leave interviews. The resistance to acknowledging facts (which switched Sarah Wolleston off distributing Leave stuff about the NHS for example, and led to Penny Mordaunt talking nonsense about Turkey, and means they keep using £350 million a week even when it has been completely discredited). The feeling that you can't have a rational conversation with a Brexiteer without them building up a head of steam towards shoutyness.
    So people don't bother to engage or argue. They tell Out campaigners what they think they want to hear as the easiest way out. And are wary of giving much away to pollsters because who'd trust some random organisation that contacts you and asks you stuff about your political opinions?
    Put you down as a maybe?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937

    I think Cameron should have taken a leaf out of Blair's book - he crushed opposition within his own party whilst in opposition (by abolishing clause 4) and did it so effectively that it took them 20 years to re-emerge. Cameron should have done something on those lines. He might have lost a few members along the way (as Blair did) but he would have saved himself and his party a great deal of heartache had he given a clear lead from the outset.

    That underestimates what a tough job he had at managing the party and overcoming the decade long toxification at the hands of Mandelson and New Labour. Remember that the original moderniser Michael Portillo was barred from the leadership over social issues despite having the right Eurosceptic credentials.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Scott_P said:

    The "Reality" is that if we Leave, there may be some disruption, but nothing horrendous.

    Maybe not for you. It would be horrendous for lots of people
    No, it wouldn't.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    test
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
    I can imagine he was a nightmare when working government..doesn't stop him being interesting. His reasoning for Brexit was actually the most sensible I have heard from either side i.e. takes power away from everybody and was constructed based upon rules that are totally inflexible and outdated for the modern world.

    He also dropped an interesting story about how he was partly responsible for the use of all this nonsense of pick a figure then quadruple it and then stick it on a poster....as a younger man, he was involved in the Labour Tax Bombshell, where he claims it was his idea to stick a big figure on that.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
    I know.
    If only he had listened to Hilton he might still be in government with his real brothers in politics. The liberal democrats.

    How he must rue the day Hilton left. All these bl88dy tories!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I can imagine he was a nightmare when working government..doesn't stop him being interesting.

    @PeterMannionMP: Steve 'why can't we just axe all consumer and maternity rights' Hilton, now wants to leave the EU. #yesandho #euref https://t.co/acqXfVDo3z
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has anyone heard or seen Theresa Villiers ? Not just the last month but the entire 6 years. What does she do ? Even Patel, who is not a full cabinet minister, goes around studios.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171
    surbiton said:

    Has anyone heard or seen Theresa Villiers ? Not just the last month but the entire 6 years. What does she do ? Even Patel, who is not a full cabinet minister, goes around studios.

    Probably more involved with stuff in NI itself, I'd imagine. She's been on Daily Politics at least a few times, for whatever that's worth.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726



    I think Cameron should have taken a leaf out of Blair's book - he crushed opposition within his own party whilst in opposition (by abolishing clause 4) and did it so effectively that it took them 20 years to re-emerge. Cameron should have done something on those lines. He might have lost a few members along the way (as Blair did) but he would have saved himself and his party a great deal of heartache had he given a clear lead from the outset.

    The people now being regarded as Cameron's 'opposition' within his party are around half of the party's MPs and probably the majority of its members. Are you really saying he should have 'crushed' them? I am not sure he would even have got to be PM if he had followed your advise.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.

    The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.

    Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.

    I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.

    So it won't be a shock.

    But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
    Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.

    I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
    He should have taken on the Euroheadbangers when he first became leader. His tactic of tiptoeing around the problem and fostering the belief that he was really on the fence about the EU has led him to a situation in which he could well be about to join the long list of Tory premiers whose career foundered on the Eurorocks.
    Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
    He has indeed appeased the rebels, but at what cost? His party is divided, possibly beyond repair, his government is left weakened and barely in control of events and the UK has lost influence with its allies. And it seems highly unlikely that most of the Leavers will meekly accept the result - they will declare the process unfair and continue to demand vetoes and draw red lines against whatever the EU does.
    His party's division predates him. Someone had to face up to the situation. What do you suppose the rebels would have done with no referendum (and in opposition)?
    I think Cameron should have taken a leaf out of Blair's book - he crushed opposition within his own party whilst in opposition (by abolishing clause 4) and did it so effectively that it took them 20 years to re-emerge. Cameron should have done something on those lines. He might have lost a few members along the way (as Blair did) but he would have saved himself and his party a great deal of heartache had he given a clear lead from the outset.
    And look what happened to Blair and New Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    I can imagine he was a nightmare when working government..doesn't stop him being interesting.

    @PeterMannionMP: Steve 'why can't we just axe all consumer and maternity rights' Hilton, now wants to leave the EU. #yesandho #euref https://t.co/acqXfVDo3z
    His core belief is actually fairly right...i.e. too much power concentrated in too few hands and it is giving a massive advantage to a very small number of people / corporations. It is also stunting innovation and start-ups as the playing field is set against them and just leading to too many monopoly providers. This is true in both private and public services.

    His solutions not necessary as good though.

    He is a very strong believer that the way we educate kids is totally outdated and I 100% agree with him on that.

    But at the moment nobody in politics appears to be doing any novel thinking....its is either more of the same with Tories or back to the 70's hard left nonsense with Corbyn.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
    Only yesterday you said Hilton was unfairly criticised for the Tories not winning a majority at GE2010.

    Funny how the tune changes.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
    Only yesterday you said Hilton was unfairly criticised for the Tories not winning a majority at GE2010.

    Funny how the tune changes.
    "The Cameroons: a warning from History"

    narrated by Sam West

    Episode 1:
    "2010 - Helped into power"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Sean_F said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    It's hard to be certain what pent-up hatreds exist within the senior ranks of the Conservative Party.
    There seem to be quite a few on both wings of the Conservative Party who see beating and humiliating the other as far more important than the EU referendum.

    Which is a proxy for it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    Sean_F said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    It's hard to be certain what pent-up hatreds exist within the senior ranks of the Conservative Party.
    There seem to be quite a few on both wings of the Conservative Party who see beating and humiliating the other as far more important than the EU referendum.

    Which is a proxy for it.
    I guess I must be one of the very few boorish oafs LEAVERs who has never been a member of ANY political party :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited May 2016

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
    Only yesterday you said Hilton was unfairly criticised for the Tories not winning a majority at GE2010.

    Funny how the tune changes.
    I was taking the piss out of the argument of those PBers who made the same argument about Lord Cooper.

    To be fair, you've never inaccurately smeared Andrew Cooper nor ComRes.

    Now wish me luck, I'm campaigning for Remain tonight, here's hoping I don't meet any finger loving dogs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    New tests find 14 Russian athletes positive at Beijing Games

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/36373805

    Well I am shocked I tell you, shocked I tell you...what's the betting they still let him compete in Rio?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Spectator item on the strange disappearance of Stuart Rose:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/where-have-the-in-campaign-been-hiding-stuart-rose/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Eagles, your obscene fashion tastes will not protect you from the hounds.

    One hopes you persuade no-one, but do survive.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speaking of which, for me the main sign of the Leave Campaign's haplessness is their failure to make more of Rose's "warning" about rising wages.

    They should be getting that into every media appearance a Leave figure makes, rather than going on about "sovereignty" or "democratic liberation" or whatever.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,554
    A very interesting blog post from Matt Singh on the phone polls v online polls discrepancy, and a repost to the yougov analysis.

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/the-case-against-phone-polls-is-not-proven.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Just listened to Steve Hilton on LBC - what an interesting character he is. A sad loss to the PM I would say, as I believe Andy Coulson was. I wonder if the Chancellor would have become so powerful if these two characters were still around?????

    Have you noticed Dave won a majority once he stopped listening to Steve Hilton.

    Just saying.
    Only yesterday you said Hilton was unfairly criticised for the Tories not winning a majority at GE2010.

    Funny how the tune changes.
    I was taking the piss out of the argument of those PBers who made the same argument about Lord Cooper.

    To be fair, you've never inaccurately smeared Andrew Cooper nor ComRes.

    Now wish me luck, I'm campaigning for Remain tonight, here's hoping I don't meet any finger loving dogs.
    Watch those letterboxes.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Scott_P said:

    I can imagine he was a nightmare when working government..doesn't stop him being interesting.

    @PeterMannionMP: Steve 'why can't we just axe all consumer and maternity rights' Hilton, now wants to leave the EU. #yesandho #euref https://t.co/acqXfVDo3z
    His core belief is actually fairly right...i.e. too much power concentrated in too few hands and it is giving a massive advantage to a very small number of people / corporations. It is also stunting innovation and start-ups as the playing field is set against them and just leading to too many monopoly providers. This is true in both private and public services.

    His solutions not necessary as good though.

    He is a very strong believer that the way we educate kids is totally outdated and I 100% agree with him on that.

    But at the moment nobody in politics appears to be doing any novel thinking....its is either more of the same with Tories or back to the 70's hard left nonsense with Corbyn.
    The irony is that Carswell was - is - one of the few novel thinkers out there ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Simon Le Bon has declared for Leave.

    True British hero.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Bill Cosby ordered to stand trial for sex assault case

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36371740
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Tennis: Konta's out of the French Open. Think I have a little on her to win SPOTY, at long odds.

    Wimbledon and the US Open still to come, of course.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    edited May 2016

    Simon Le Bon has declared for Leave.

    True British hero.

    "The name's Bon. Simon Le Bon"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXjnwXUN1Mg
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016

    Scott_P said:

    I can imagine he was a nightmare when working government..doesn't stop him being interesting.

    @PeterMannionMP: Steve 'why can't we just axe all consumer and maternity rights' Hilton, now wants to leave the EU. #yesandho #euref https://t.co/acqXfVDo3z
    His core belief is actually fairly right...i.e. too much power concentrated in too few hands and it is giving a massive advantage to a very small number of people / corporations. It is also stunting innovation and start-ups as the playing field is set against them and just leading to too many monopoly providers. This is true in both private and public services.

    His solutions not necessary as good though.

    He is a very strong believer that the way we educate kids is totally outdated and I 100% agree with him on that.

    But at the moment nobody in politics appears to be doing any novel thinking....its is either more of the same with Tories or back to the 70's hard left nonsense with Corbyn.
    The irony is that Carswell was - is - one of the few novel thinkers out there ...
    Yes. The Plan and all that. The thing is with modern politics people like Hilton and Carswell get labelled with the odd ball / nutter tag, when somewhere in there is some decent ideas, it is a matter of filtering through them.

    Education is the one that really gets me. We educate kids basically the same way we did 100 years ago, and we are getting the same results / problems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937
    Looking at Hillary's Twitter feed, her campaign clearly thinks that giving Donald Trump more exposure is the way to beat him. Almost every tweet is about Trump.

    https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016

    Simon Le Bon has declared for Leave.

    True British hero.

    Simon Le Bon, Ian Botham, Roger Daltrey - all the cool dudes.

    Remain have Eddie Izzard and Benedict Cumberbatch.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,932
    Updated government borrowing versus Osborne's prediction:

    Predicted Borrowing
    2010/11 £149bn
    2011/12 £116bn
    2012/13 £89bn
    2013/14 £60bn
    2014/15 £37bn
    2015/16 £20bn
    Total £471bn

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/7846849/Budget-2010-Full-text-of-George-Osbornes-statement.html

    Actual Borrowing
    2010/11 £137bn
    2011/12 £116bn
    2012/13 £121bn
    2013/14 £103bn
    2014/15 £92bn
    2015/16 £76bn
    Total £645bn

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls

    Osborne's overborrowing for the six completed years totalling £174bn.

    As 2016/17 was supposed to be a surplus year the £60bn plus likely government borrowing can be added to the cumulative overborrowing.

    A particular triumph was underestimating the 2015/16 borrowing by £4bn in his Budget of March 16th - does anyone really think his predictions of the far future have any credibility ?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Updated government borrowing versus Osborne's prediction:

    Predicted Borrowing
    2010/11 £149bn
    2011/12 £116bn
    2012/13 £89bn
    2013/14 £60bn
    2014/15 £37bn
    2015/16 £20bn
    Total £471bn

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/7846849/Budget-2010-Full-text-of-George-Osbornes-statement.html

    Actual Borrowing
    2010/11 £137bn
    2011/12 £116bn
    2012/13 £121bn
    2013/14 £103bn
    2014/15 £92bn
    2015/16 £76bn
    Total £645bn

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls

    Osborne's overborrowing for the six completed years totalling £174bn.

    As 2016/17 was supposed to be a surplus year the £60bn plus likely government borrowing can be added to the cumulative overborrowing.

    A particular triumph was underestimating the 2015/16 borrowing by £4bn in his Budget of March 16th - does anyone really think his predictions of the far future have any credibility ?

    I predict 2020 GE campaign will be all about getting economy into surplus by 2025...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Sean_F said:

    @blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.

    In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.

    They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.

    It's hard to be certain what pent-up hatreds exist within the senior ranks of the Conservative Party.
    There seem to be quite a few on both wings of the Conservative Party who see beating and humiliating the other as far more important than the EU referendum.

    Which is a proxy for it.
    To the membership/activist base it all seems quite bewildering. There are many of us who are genuinely undecided and wanting to make a pragmatic decision, and of course quite a few who are just 'leave' instinctively. To us the fighting in Westminster seems bizarre. It's not about them!!!

    I did wind up a hard left quasi friend the other day who is an RMT nut job and has always wanted out. I said "You know, i was reading your facebook page the other day, and you said you wanted out of the EU because it was neo liberal conspiracy stamping out socialism across the continent, but that's one of the reasons I want to stay in!".

    I'm not too sure he took it well.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937

    Simon Le Bon has declared for Leave.

    True British hero.

    "The name's Bon. Simon Le Bon"
    Very modern of him to take his wife's name. (© Jennifer Saunders)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Notme, a few people I've spoken to about it were irritated because they wanted some objective information about the pros and cons of staying or going.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    chestnut said:

    Simon Le Bon has declared for Leave.

    True British hero.

    Simon Le Bon, Ian Botham, Roger Daltrey - all the cool dudes.

    Remain have Eddie Izzard and Benedict Cumberbatch.
    Leave need a leader. A real one.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.

    What about Obama's threats, WW3, "massive recession (no evidence)", the IMF*, mortgages rising, etc, etc.

    This is Remain BS bullying. It works both ways.

    *not the fun one with Tom Cruise.
    You say Project Fear, some might call it Project Reality.

    If Remain's approach was such patent BS, Leave would be able to rebut it easily

    It is hard to overcome certain propaganda techniques, eg The "big lie" principle that Hitler used against the Jews. (This is by way of example only).

    Remain is putting about huge scare stories, hoping that people (even if they don't believe) will downgrade them to "well something might happen", and this will push enough people over to Remain to win.

    The "Reality" is that if we Leave, there may be some disruption, but nothing horrendous. Then we will continue to grow without the EU holding us back.

    Nothing quite tops Penny Morduant's "big lie" at the weekend that we have no veto over Turkey joining the EU. Nothing Remain have come up with so far has been quite that barefaced
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    taffys said:

    chestnut said:

    Simon Le Bon has declared for Leave.

    True British hero.

    Simon Le Bon, Ian Botham, Roger Daltrey - all the cool dudes.

    Remain have Eddie Izzard and Benedict Cumberbatch.
    Leave need a leader. A real one.
    Michael Caine in the Italian Job?

    "You were only supposed to be opening... a common market"
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,932
    The British government debt is older than the British state itself having begun in 1694.

    It took until 1992 for it to reach the £174bn which Osborne has already overborrowed and until September 2008 for it to reach the £645bn which Osborne borrowed in the six completed years.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6w
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    chestnut said:

    MrsB said:

    Just odious, no wonder they posted people's mobile numbers online

    @Hannah_McGrath: So Farage has just told his 'people's army' in Dudley to 'go out, persuade people, bully people'. #Brexit

    and that's what people feel is happening: an onslaught by the Leave side that amounts to bullying. Which is why I think "shy" Remain is a real thing, and the outcome of the vote might be less close than some think. See #Indyref.
    Another tick for internet polling. It's anonymous and more closely mirrors a voting booth than disclosing a taboo opinion over the telephone.

    We all believe the polls we want to believe and we will know which are the more accurate soon enough. At the moment nobody knows even if they keep telling us they do. .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Looking at Hillary's Twitter feed, her campaign clearly thinks that giving Donald Trump more exposure is the way to beat him. Almost every tweet is about Trump.

    https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton

    Trump... president.. wins...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    NEW THREAD

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367

    Mr T pointed out something on the last thread that is important. Cameron lied brazenly about being open to persuasion if he didn't get a reasonable re-negotiation. Politicians lie, that isn't the problem. It's the fact that he believes the British public are so gullible they can be fed any bullshit and will believe it.

    That's the real insult. World War Three can only be averted by Herr Juncker. The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 was defused by the EU ... oops. the Common Market as it was then ... not by the Septics.

    You'll all lose £4300 by 2030 even when we can't accurately forecast the Deficit a year ahead. It's all guff but they don't have the brain cells of we Old Etonians. I'd be rather good at politics, even if I say so myself I say so myself, which I do.

    I forgive the Scotts of this world and many of the LDs - they are believers in a United States of Europe, and any means of achieving this is fine (but don't mention that fact if you can avoid it)..

    Let's be honest, what the Establishment wants, the Establishment gets generally, and the Establishment believes in the Euro dream. That's why I've always thought that Remain will win.

    Accept defeat if it happens, and don't whinge when the EU rushes on towards full union, which it will. Life isn't always fair.
This discussion has been closed.