Not content with losing, Brexiteers are now briefing they will be BAD losers...
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref
Well a big juicy tax cut for the middle classes might buy them off, given the government finances are in such a good way.
Not content with losing, Brexiteers are now briefing they will be BAD losers...
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref
Penny Mordant seems to have gone off the reservation. A shame as she previously seemed a good prospect.
Mr. P, Cameron's making the referendum the Battle of Heraclea. A man can hardly take a Pyrrhic approach to victory in battle, then complain he's lost the war.
Edited extra bit: for modernists, he's making it the Battle of Najera.
Unfortunately it keeps getting brushed under the carpet.
The growth of cannabis legalisation (sort of) across the United States may change things. Our politicians can ignore Portugal and Holland but America is on telly. As Faraday replied when Gladstone asked what is the use of electricity: one day, sir, you may tax it. Politicians in the states are attracted not by liberty but by revenue.
Good point.
The image of an entourage from Whitehall sat around with Colombians and Afghans is too awful to contemplate, but drugs are the scourge of society, an entirely different approach is required.
Legalise, regulate, educate, tax.
Yes that's a start. As a libertarian it's nobody's business what an individual chooses to ingest, but dealers prey on users in unimaginable ways. So somewhere in your equation proper punishment must appear too.
Good to talk though, I wish parliament would.
Once you legalise, then commercial enterprises will move in: that's part of 'regulate' - ensure standards of supply. Criminal suppliers will be driven out by simple market forces, just as those who controlled the US prohibition-era drinks market were once legal brewers and distillers were back in the market.
I'd like to agree but I'm afraid you're being naive. People controlling £million drug rings won't just shrug their shoulders. That's not to say nothing can be done, it can, but politicians refuse to even discuss it. None of them has the foggiest idea of the depth of the problem.
A legal product will destroy the market for an illegal one (unless the legal one has an absurdly high tax on it). It doesn't really matter whether criminals like it or not. They won't have any customers.
The principle problem is that still guarantees a market for a deadly product. Which libertarians wouldn't have a problem with, I see that, but most people would.
Alcohol and tobacco are deadly and legal.
These are anomalies and I have no inclination to add to them. Indeed they are only bearable because of the much lower harm than cocaine.
Mr. P, his actions and attitude are the cause of bitterness. Saying he isn't briefing is like saying a cook isn't complaining when his diners think the food is rotten.
Unfortunately it keeps getting brushed under the carpet.
The growth of cannabis legalisation (sort of) across the United States may change things. Our politicians can ignore Portugal and Holland but America is on telly. As Faraday replied when Gladstone asked what is the use of electricity: one day, sir, you may tax it. Politicians in the states are attracted not by liberty but by revenue.
Good point.
The image of an entourage from Whitehall sat around with Colombians and Afghans is too awful to contemplate, but drugs are the scourge of society, an entirely different approach is required.
Legalise, regulate, educate, tax.
Yes that's a start. As a libertarian it's nobody's business what an individual chooses to ingest, but dealers prey on users in unimaginable ways. So somewhere in your equation proper punishment must appear too.
Good to talk though, I wish parliament would.
Once you legalise, then commercial enterprises will move in: that's part of 'regulate' - ensure standards of supply. Criminal suppliers will be driven out by simple market forces, just as those who controlled the US prohibition-era drinks market were once legal brewers and distillers were back in the market.
I'd like to agree but I'm afraid you're being naive. People controlling £million drug rings won't just shrug their shoulders. That's not to say nothing can be done, it can, but politicians refuse to even discuss it. None of them has the foggiest idea of the depth of the problem.
A legal product will destroy the market for an illegal one (unless the legal one has an absurdly high tax on it). It doesn't really matter whether criminals like it or not. They won't have any customers.
The principle problem is that still guarantees a market for a deadly product. Which libertarians wouldn't have a problem with, I see that, but most people would.
Alcohol and tobacco are deadly and legal.
These are anomalies and I have no inclination to add to them. Indeed they are only bearable because of the much lower harm than cocaine.
Yes its tricky, but unless we accept that what we're doing now isn't working we're in big trouble.
Not content with losing, Brexiteers are now briefing they will be BAD losers...
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref
Isn't it terrible. Labour lost the GE in 2015 and yet a year later they are still sat in Parliament voting against the Government. They even say they will stand against the Government at the next GE! Aren't they bad losers.
Not content with losing, Brexiteers are now briefing they will be BAD losers...
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref
Penny Mordant seems to have gone off the reservation. A shame as she previously seemed a good prospect.
Lib Dems doing a lot of Winning Here in the local elections this month, all over Portsmouth. I expect she is worried.
Bank of England confirm that interest rates will "go up - or down after Brexit, it's rather hard to say".
That's correct. The situation will be unstable, and there will be two contradictory forces.
- On the one hand, the BoE might want to reduce interest rates (not that there's much scope for that!) or restart QE to counter the recessionary pressure from the Brexit uncertainty;
- But some of the Brexit uncertainty will come from and manifest itself as a fall in sterling (possibly leading to inflation, although that's not certain); QE or reducing interest rates would exacerbate that.
My guess is that they'd leave interest rates alone and consider QE, but there would be no good options.
Unfortunately it keeps getting brushed under the carpet.
The liberty but by revenue.
Good point.
The image of an entourage from Whitehall sat around with Colombians and Afghans is too awful to contemplate, but drugs are the scourge of society, an entirely different approach is required.
Legalise, regulate, educate, tax.
Yes ish parliament would.
Once you legalise, then commercial enterprises will move in: that's part of 'regulate' - ensure standards of supply. Criminal suppliers will be driven out by simple market forces, just as those who controlled the US prohibition-era drinks market were once legal brewers and distillers were back in the market.
I'd like to giest idea of the depth of the problem.
A legal product will destroy the market for an illegal one (unless the legal one has an absurdly high tax on it). It doesn't really matter whether criminals like it or not. They won't have any customers.
The principle problem is that still guarantees a market for a deadly product. Which libertarians wouldn't have a problem with, I see that, but most people would.
Alcohol and tobacco are deadly and legal.
These are anomalies and I have no inclination to add to them. Indeed they are only bearable because of the much lower harm than cocaine.
Having - unlike most pb-ers, I will guess - personally ruined large parts of the UK with my addiction, and taken every drug in the world in the process, I can firmly conclude that alcohol and tobacco are two of the *worst* drugs. Both are extremely addictive, and both harm far more people than any Class A substance. Tobacco literally kills you. Alcohol makes you kill others, in your car, or in your home.
By contrast, heroin is sbenign. It is not a toxin like tobacco or booze. If you get a regular supply of the good shit you can take it all your life without noticeable harm, as long as you make sure to eat well, etc.
The damage done by heroin comes from the inability to get a fix, which leads to crime, and the self neglect that comes with its agreeable torpor.
Is it true that,
There are horrible cravings associated with Heroin
The pair were commissioned to paint the piece by We Are Europe, a group dedicated to convincing young people to register to vote in order to keep Britain in the EU.
It really is quite annoying that the debate isn't actually focussed on Britain's long term future.
Bristol Post now carrying story of risk to 45,000 jobs in the area, according to Greg Hands. I wonder if other local papers have been briefed with similar scare stories.
It is all very well printing this stuff, but where is Cameron's picture of the EU in ten years time?
At the moment the PIIGS are still outside the abattoir waiting for something to happen.
With respect to the polls, there will be some who salivate at the closeness of the latest findings, it helps sell papers, occupies air time on TV & radio and excites users on social media. But if the polls are far from the final result, there will a great deal of sound and fury with a bar stewards' inquiry.
Not content with losing, Brexiteers are now briefing they will be BAD losers...
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref
Penny Mordant seems to have gone off the reservation. A shame as she previously seemed a good prospect.
Lib Dems doing a lot of Winning Here in the local elections this month, all over Portsmouth. I expect she is worried.
Well we should only employ British born Cambridge graduates to work for The Secret Intelligence Service and MI5.
That'll solve that problem of Euro Spies leaking to Russia
Last found-out Cambridge Spy ring is dead - and so we can assume inactive (unless the Russians have invested in Ouija boards). Current EU Russian spys seem very much active.
(As an aside - when I went up to Cambridge in 1980, the Freshers guide included a list of all the societies (to meet at the society fair). One wag had included "The Cambridge Espionage Society" - promising wide travel and meeting interesting people - contact A Blunt (Trinity))
Glad you've joined in, I know a former addict, well several actually. You talk about not being able to get a fix, if you're (relatively) affluent, it will be a case of supply. In the case of plenty of wretched users its that they have no money and all manner of sordid activities ensue. I'm sure you know this, the majority on here won't have a clue what goes on.
The reasoning behind the ICM revision of methodology is interesting. It does give weight to the idea that online panels are unrepresentatively politically engaged.
It's about employment patterns and social arrangements of different demographics, rather than political engagement, in my view.
Older people who tend to vote Leave will more likely be at home on Friday evenings than younger people who vote Remain.
That's about work patterns and social lives.
Apolitical, social research finds exactly the same thing when chasing responses.
The time to attempt and most likely obtain equal contact is Sunday or after 7pm Monday-Thursday. Saturday contact is more likely to meet with a brush-off.
All other most beneficial contacts will be determined by when people work, collect children from school, go out with friends and socialise etc.
Bank of England confirm that interest rates will "go up - or down after Brexit, it's rather hard to say".
That's correct. The situation will be unstable, and there will be two contradictory forces.
- On the one hand, the BoE might want to reduce interest rates (not that there's much scope for that!) or restart QE to counter the recessionary pressure from the Brexit uncertainty;
- But some of the Brexit uncertainty will come from and manifest itself as a fall in sterling (possibly leading to inflation, although that's not certain); QE or reducing interest rates would exacerbate that.
My guess is that they'd leave interest rates alone and consider QE, but there would be no good options.
QE is working SO well in the EU isn't it. Greece gone, Italy Indebted, France F*ck*d, Spain struggling, Portugal performing.
@chestnut Your view is not ICM's. Their statement makes it clear that they think that Leavers are likely to respond early in some demographic groups, not just that some demographic groups respond early.
QE is working SO well in the EU isn't it. Greece gone, Italy Indebted, France F*ck*d, Spain struggling, Portugal performing.
Well, they haven't done that much, they started too late, and some of the Eurozone countries have totally failed to make the necessary labour market reforms.
But yes, you are right that it's not a magic bullet. The power of the BoE to mitigate the short-term economic damage would be very limited. And the power of the government to use a fiscal stimulus would also be limited, given that we're not exactly under-borroweed at the moment.
Unfortunately it keeps getting brushed under the carpet.
The liberty but by revenue.
Good point.
The image of an entourage from Whitehall sat around with Colombians and Afghans is too awful to contemplate, but drugs are the scourge of society, an entirely different approach is required.
Legalise, regulate, educate, tax.
Yes ish parliament would.
Once you legalise, then commercial enterprises will move in: that's part of 'regulate' - ensure standards of supply. Criminal suppliers will be driven out by simple market forces, just as those who controlled the US prohibition-era drinks market were once legal brewers and distillers were back in the market.
I'd like to giest idea of the depth of the problem.
A legal product will destroy the market for an illegal one (unless the legal one has an absurdly high tax on it). It doesn't really matter whether criminals like it or not. They won't have any customers.
The principle problem is that still guarantees a market for a deadly product. Which libertarians wouldn't have a problem with, I see that, but most people would.
Alcohol and tobacco are deadly and legal.
These are anomalies and I have no inclination to add to them. Indeed they are only bearable because of the much lower harm than cocaine.
Having - unlike most pb-ers, I will guess - personally ruined large parts of the UK with my addiction, and taken every drug in the world in the process, I can firmly conclude that alcohol and tobacco are two of the *worst* drugs. Both are extremely addictive, and both harm far more people than any Class A substance. Tobacco literally kills you. Alcohol makes you kill others, in your car, or in your home.
By contrast, heroin is sbenign. It is not a toxin like tobacco or booze. If you get a regular supply of the good shit you can take it all your life without noticeable harm, as long as you make sure to eat well, etc.
The damage done by heroin comes from the inability to get a fix, which leads to crime, and the self neglect that comes with its agreeable torpor.
The real damage done by heroin and other Class A drugs is done by the people who supply them.
With the continent-wide democratic surge to the right, the anti-democratic Commission could be in for a challenge in their attempt to exclude each and every elected government they deem to be “far right".
However, as of 2014, the Commission was handed a batch of new powers that it could plausibly use to do just this – powers already being mobilised against Poland’s elected, conservative leaders.
The Commission can now trigger a “rule of law mechanism” (Article 7 TEU) against nations it perceives as deviating from “the common constitutional traditions of all Member States.” Ultimately, “far-reaching sanctions” can be exerted, and a country can be stripped of all voting rights in the EU. ------------------
Do we really want to remain members of such a fascist organisation?
Hard to contend there hasn't been a 3-4% swing back to Remain over the last 2 weeks since the Blitzkreig was launched.
Question is: what is Vote Leave doing? Where are they?
I presume they are doing something, but it's not visible to man or beast.
This won't go down well but I think Leave.EU might have done a better job. My dad's reaction to the broadcast last night was "do Vote Leave want us to stay in the EU or something?"
LEAVE.EU would overall have done a far worse job. But that said LEAVE.EU should have been brought in to run most of the grassroots and leaflet work as that is very patchy.
No They wouldn't. Because unlike Vote Leave, they at least vaguely have their sh*t together. Check out their social media account numbers and engagement.
The idea that the bunch of hopeless Tories that run Vote Leave could do better if only they only had the use of UKIP as a sort of 'party that does' is deeply misguided and rather insulting. Accordingly, I gave Leave.EU a small but hopefully useful donation the other week. I wouldn't give the others a penny.
Isn't the very fact that we're having this discussion the problem? The Leave side are still divided, unhappy, have different visions, and as of last night publishing personal contact details of the other groups. Winning the referendum for out with a clear vision and united campaign would have been hard enough, but like this? If we do vote out, I fear that the negotiations would have a similar tone and be just as fractious - as the different camps want so many different things, and even 'Take Control' can mean whatever you want it to.
The problem as I see it is that Vote Leave people are naively clinging to a form of 'acceptibility' as defined by their opponents. They think by shunning all things Kipper they are within the pale, but they're not. Nigel and the Kippers did not harm the anti-EU cause by being boorish oafs, they are portrayed as boorish oafs because they are anti-EU. Vote Leave failed completely to appreciate the forces that would be brought to bear against them.
@chestnut Your view is not ICM's. Their statement makes it clear that they think that Leavers are likely to respond early in some demographic groups, not just that some demographic groups respond early.
Yes indeed, but I suspect they are over-thinking it.
Response patterns are, in my experience, directly linked to things like age and employment circumstances.
For example, the idea that first calls on telephones generate a left bias isn't because lefties answer phones quickly.
It's because young people (generally left inclined) have mobiles with them all the time and are therefore easier to reach than landline owners. It's the age and social habits, not the political leaning, that makes the response so much quicker and generates the bias.
At 6pm on a Friday - who's more likely to be out socialising or commuting - pensioners or under 30s? Who is more likely to be tapping away at home on the internet? It's lifestyle, not politics.
Update re my Brexit betting position. I had built up a very nice green position over the last month or more by backing LEAVE as the price drifted and REMAIN likewise. After the BES poll I decided LEAVE was the value bet only to see most of the subsequent polls enhancing REMAIN's position.
I've cut my losses by trading out of my recent LEAVE bet at a loss and now I'm slightly red overall on this market. But it feels like the right call an no serious harm done.
Before the GE I was on the Tories for overall majority at about 6.5/1. I lost my nerve and closed that position at a small loss when nearly all the polls indicated the bet would lose. Maybe the same will happen this time. I don't think so. It feels like Project Fear has won and I will most likely be betting REMAIN because of Project Fear.
Not content with losing, Brexiteers are now briefing they will be BAD losers...
@BethRigby: Brexit minister tells me damage done in party over #EUref. PM "50/50 chance of vote of no confidence" post June 23. 1/2
@BethRigby: And even if Cameron does survive, #Brexit minister warns impending blood letting will make party "ungovernable" Grim state of affairs #euref
Some mistake surely ?
Youve been telling us for weeks that the Tories will all be one big happy family and that anyone who thinks otherwise is a liar.
Mr. T, must agree that the powers are excessive and show contempt for democratic nation-states.
But there we are. Cameron will bang on about eleventy billion jobs being lost and East Anglia falling into the sea if we leave, we'll vote to Remain, and then millions of people will regret it.
Sticking with my long term 60/40 Remain victory prediction.
With the continent-wide democratic surge to the right, the anti-democratic Commission could be in for a challenge in their attempt to exclude each and every elected government they deem to be “far right".
However, as of 2014, the Commission was handed a batch of new powers that it could plausibly use to do just this – powers already being mobilised against Poland’s elected, conservative leaders.
The Commission can now trigger a “rule of law mechanism” (Article 7 TEU) against nations it perceives as deviating from “the common constitutional traditions of all Member States.” Ultimately, “far-reaching sanctions” can be exerted, and a country can be stripped of all voting rights in the EU. ------------------
Do we really want to remain members of such a fascist organisation?
The Polish government seem set to ignore the European Commission. I rather admire the Polish government.
With the continent-wide democratic surge to the right, the anti-democratic Commission could be in for a challenge in their attempt to exclude each and every elected government they deem to be “far right".
However, as of 2014, the Commission was handed a batch of new powers that it could plausibly use to do just this – powers already being mobilised against Poland’s elected, conservative leaders.
The Commission can now trigger a “rule of law mechanism” (Article 7 TEU) against nations it perceives as deviating from “the common constitutional traditions of all Member States.” Ultimately, “far-reaching sanctions” can be exerted, and a country can be stripped of all voting rights in the EU. ------------------
Do we really want to remain members of such a fascist organisation?
It really is extraordinary, how much power we have handed over to the EU. Most of it has happened without proper scrutiny. Now it is being revealed.
I've possibly mentioned this before, but only a traitor (or perhaps a drooling imbecile) could vote REMAIN, in the light of these revelations
With the continent-wide democratic surge to the right, the anti-democratic Commission could be in for a challenge in their attempt to exclude each and every elected government they deem to be “far right".
However, as of 2014, the Commission was handed a batch of new powers that it could plausibly use to do just this – powers already being mobilised against Poland’s elected, conservative leaders.
The Commission can now trigger a “rule of law mechanism” (Article 7 TEU) against nations it perceives as deviating from “the common constitutional traditions of all Member States.” Ultimately, “far-reaching sanctions” can be exerted, and a country can be stripped of all voting rights in the EU. ------------------
Do we really want to remain members of such a fascist organisation?
The Polish government seem set to ignore the European Commission. I rather admire the Polish government.
With the continent-wide democratic surge to the right, the anti-democratic Commission could be in for a challenge in their attempt to exclude each and every elected government they deem to be “far right".
However, as of 2014, the Commission was handed a batch of new powers that it could plausibly use to do just this – powers already being mobilised against Poland’s elected, conservative leaders.
The Commission can now trigger a “rule of law mechanism” (Article 7 TEU) against nations it perceives as deviating from “the common constitutional traditions of all Member States.” Ultimately, “far-reaching sanctions” can be exerted, and a country can be stripped of all voting rights in the EU. ------------------
Do we really want to remain members of such a fascist organisation?
The Polish government seem set to ignore the European Commission. I rather admire the Polish government.
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
Cameron hates the Tory party more than he hates the EU. Discuss.
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
As a kipper I'm enjoying it.
Scenario 1 for me is we Leave and Cameron walks, scenario 2 is Remain wins and Cameron is hounded out. One or the other will happen, I'm very relaxed.
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.
I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
Online polling - isn't the issue in a nutshell that most people do what they are interested in. So the politically enthused, of what ever persuasion, are more likely to respond quickly than someone who is not interested.
Hence the classification cells filling up first, regardless of the day in question, with the most enthused.
This will cause polling problems if the level of turnout is such that politically enthused is not a representative sample of that particular cell given those who vote.
This is would account for the 1992 polls (high turnout of the politically unenthusiastic) and the 2010 lib dem polling surge (unrepresentative sample of enthusiastic Nick agreers).
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.
I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
It's almost like he made a series of tactical decisions to pander to the eureurosceptic wing of the party that has stored up long term strategic trouble.
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.
I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
It's almost like he made a series of tactical decisions to pander to the eureurosceptic wing of the party that has stored up long term strategic trouble.
crivvens, jings and help ma George.
As I have said before the problem with the victory at all costs approach is eventually the bill turns up.
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.
I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
He should have taken on the Euroheadbangers when he first became leader. His tactic of tiptoeing around the problem and fostering the belief that he was really on the fence about the EU has led him to a situation in which he could well be about to join the long list of Tory premiers whose career foundered on the Eurorocks.
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
The standard way of dealing with difficult people is to smile sweetly and let them disappear up their own arseholes in search of the Holy Grail. Dave and George have taken the poke a hornets nest approach and are wondering why they are getting stung.Really Cameron has just screwed up on this, it's bad party management and all needless, he would have won the referendum any way and with no-one to fight the various leavers could only turn in on themselves. Instead he has given them a target, a purpose and more importantly a sense of being wronged.
Update re my Brexit betting position. I had built up a very nice green position over the last month or more by backing LEAVE as the price drifted and REMAIN likewise. After the BES poll I decided LEAVE was the value bet only to see most of the subsequent polls enhancing REMAIN's position.
I've cut my losses by trading out of my recent LEAVE bet at a loss and now I'm slightly red overall on this market. But it feels like the right call an no serious harm done.
Before the GE I was on the Tories for overall majority at about 6.5/1. I lost my nerve and closed that position at a small loss when nearly all the polls indicated the bet would lose. Maybe the same will happen this time. I don't think so. It feels like Project Fear has won and I will most likely be betting REMAIN because of Project Fear.
Debating with myself whether to do likewise. Not yet, I think.
If Leave lose and the first thing that hardline Conservative Leaver MPs do is challenge their victorious leader, they will look utterly ridiculous*. If Leave loses, a period of quiet introspection as to why they lost is the appropriate reaction. The Prime Minister has done nothing that a good campaigner wouldn't do.
That's the problem really. Remain have campaigned effectively. Leave seem to have been taken aback by this and see it as somehow unfair. One wonders how they thought the referendum was going to be fought.
Anyway, the referendum is far from over. Instead of mewling like scalded cats, Leavers should be putting their backs into the campaign.
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
Perhaps you might consider why so many tories, including on here, are disappointed with him.
I'm not disappointed with him. He went to Brussels to negotiate a deal, we can all read what that deal was (although I wager that many keen Leavers haven't), and then we can make our own minds up.
Why is that so dreadful? It's not as though he is going to force the deal through, such that the ability to opt out of ever closer union is force throughable.
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
The standard way of dealing with difficult people is to smile sweetly and let them disappear up their own arseholes in search of the Holy Grail. Dave and George have taken the poke a hornets nest approach and are wondering why they are getting stung.Really Cameron has just screwed up on this, it's bad party management and all needless, he would have won the referendum any way and with no-one to fight the various leavers could only turn in on themselves. Instead he has given them a target, a purpose and more importantly a sense of being wronged.
Who's the fkwit ?
Wrong. Again.
There is a large constituency who wants out of the EU. Kippers, the Moggster, IDS, et al. Fine, Dave realised he wasn't winning or might not win unless he gave these people something they wanted.
S'called politics.
Dave gave them the referendum, he won the election, we have a referendum, and now...there's all hell to pay.
Online polling - isn't the issue in a nutshell that most people do what they are interested in. So the politically enthused, of what ever persuasion, are more likely to respond quickly than someone who is not interested..
It may, though if they are unobtainable due to lifestyle/employment when contact is attempted their enthusiasm will not factor.
I was pondering the Tory 2015 position on internet panels earlier.
Is there a single reason why an actively engaged Tory who happens to be a Leaver is more likely to have signed up to a panel than an actively engaged Tory who happens to be a Remainer?
If not, why should we disbelieve internet poll findings on the Tory 2015 vote split?
In Scott's defence he's been busy insulting Tory Leavers. Regardless of the referendum outcome he's in for a nasty shock.
The Brexiteers wanted a referendum, and have done nothing but whinge about getting it.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
Sort of makes you wonder how Dave got himself in such a stupid pickle.
I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
He should have taken on the Euroheadbangers when he first became leader. His tactic of tiptoeing around the problem and fostering the belief that he was really on the fence about the EU has led him to a situation in which he could well be about to join the long list of Tory premiers whose career foundered on the Eurorocks.
Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
Maybe, maybe not. That is not what the polls have been showing until recently (and they may still be wrong)
Cameron plays to win. He won the leadership, a general election, a majority, 2 referendums and wants to win this.
And the serial losers on the Tory right hate him for it. Smiling sweetly was never going to stop these idiots.
It strikes me Cameron has won a series of battles but is about to lose the war.
He's about to go, the backwoodsmen owe him nothing, he leaves no tangible mark on the UK in his period of his Premiership and a long list of things he could have done but must now leave to someone else.
He leaves a party as divided if not more so than when he came in and will probably end his time on a low rather than a high.
I don't know what he thought he has won, but it seems to me he has been picking the wrong fights.
If Leave lose and the first thing that hardline Conservative Leaver MPs do is challenge their victorious leader, they will look utterly ridiculous*. If Leave loses, a period of quiet introspection as to why they lost is the appropriate reaction. The Prime Minister has done nothing that a good campaigner wouldn't do.
That's the problem really. Remain have campaigned effectively. Leave seem to have been taken aback by this and see it as somehow unfair. One wonders how they thought the referendum was going to be fought.
Anyway, the referendum is far from over. Instead of mewling like scalded cats, Leavers should be putting their backs into the campaign.
*(Still more utterly ridiculous)
You underestimate the ego of politicians, plenty consider themselves humiliated, they can't be made to look any more ridiculous. You think the Eurosceptics in the conservative party are going to humbly line up to shake Cameron's hand if Remain wins?
Nope, they want blood, Cameron has publicly patronised people who worked so hard to get him elected, they won't forgive him. Great fun to watch.
Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
It's quite remarkable that both here and Scotland, people who have campaigned their entire adult lives for something, get it, and then have absolutely no idea what to do next. Totally fixated on the interim goal, with apparently no thought whatsoever about how to actually win the argument.
There ought to be a number of PhD theses out of this
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
Perhaps you might consider why so many tories, including on here, are disappointed with him.
I'm not disappointed with him. He went to Brussels to negotiate a deal, we can all read what that deal was (although I wager that many keen Leavers haven't), and then we can make our own minds up.
Why is that so dreadful? It's not as though he is going to force the deal through, such that the ability to opt out of ever closer union is force throughable.
What else could or should he have done?
No idea, I'd have voted out regardless, perhaps the tories I refer to can help you out. My hunch is they're offended by being taken for fools.
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
The standard way of dealing with difficult people is to smile sweetly and let them disappear up their own arseholes in search of the Holy Grail. Dave and George have taken the poke a hornets nest approach and are wondering why they are getting stung.Really Cameron has just screwed up on this, it's bad party management and all needless, he would have won the referendum any way and with no-one to fight the various leavers could only turn in on themselves. Instead he has given them a target, a purpose and more importantly a sense of being wronged.
Who's the fkwit ?
Wrong. Again.
There is a large constituency who wants out of the EU. Kippers, the Moggster, IDS, et al. Fine, Dave realised he wasn't winning or might not win unless he gave these people something they wanted.
S'called politics.
Dave gave them the referendum, he won the election, we have a referendum, and now...there's all hell to pay.
Whingeing Leavers should grow up.
Hmmm
once you've got passed the defensive jerk you end up agreeing it's bad party management.
How was Romney, McCain, Dukakis, Kerry doing in may Polling?
Who cares? If such daft "iron laws" were anything to go by, Trump would have been laughed out of the race last September...
In any event, the "iron law" is bullshit. Taking open elections only [like 2016], from the viewpoint of the challenging party.
1952 Eisenhower led throughout, and won
1960 Kennedy was nip-and-tuck with Nixon, and won narrowly
1968 Nixon was nip-and-tuck with Humphrey, and won narrowly
1988 Dukakis led May-Aug, but lost
2000 Bush led May-Aug, but lost the PV (vagaries of the college saw him elected)
2008 Obama was nip-and-tuck with McCain, and won convincingly
If there's an iron law there, I sure as hell can't discern it, other than no "challenger" who was convincingly behind in May has gone on to win [although there isn't an example of such a weak challenger, anyhow]...
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
Perhaps you might consider why so many tories, including on here, are disappointed with him.
I'm not disappointed with him. He went to Brussels to negotiate a deal, we can all read what that deal was (although I wager that many keen Leavers haven't), and then we can make our own minds up.
Why is that so dreadful? It's not as though he is going to force the deal through, such that the ability to opt out of ever closer union is force throughable.
What else could or should he have done?
No idea, I'd have voted out regardless, perhaps the tories I refer to can help you out. My hunch is they're offended by being taken for fools.
@blackburn63 There may well be a challenge to David Cameron if Remain wins. If there is, I expect that he will win that in some comfort.
In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.
They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.
Why should he have taken them on? He gave them what they wanted. Far more effective. As we see, because they have never forgiven him for it.
It's quite remarkable that both here and Scotland, people who have campaigned their entire adult lives for something, get it, and then have absolutely no idea what to do next. Totally fixated on the interim goal, with apparently no thought whatsoever about how to actually win the argument.
There ought to be a number of PhD theses out of this
people who have campaigned their entire adult lives for something, get it, and then have absolutely no idea what to do next.
Incidentally and way off topic, but more cheering than endless euro-feuds, a cursory gance at Liveleak and YouTube suggests that ISIS are now getting absolutely shredded.
They're under vicious attack from Assad, Putin, the Kurds and the Yanks in Syria, and the Iranians, the Shia, the Kurds and America and even Sunni tribes in Iraq.
Right now armies are preparing to retake Raqqa and Fallujah. There are reports ISIS have been reduced to feeding their under-performing officers to dogs, pour encourager les autres, and shooting dead anyone in Fallujah who wants to flee or surrender. This is not the behaviour of a swaggering Caliphate.
Inshallah, they will be exterminated soon. The videos (NSFW) make it clear the extermination has begun.
Trouble is, when it does fall apart, there will be a lot of battle-hardened, trained killers going home -- wherever home is.
Comments
Oh wait....
Edited extra bit: for modernists, he's making it the Battle of Najera.
No one in Brussels seriously expects Britain to #VoteLeave. Attitudes range from contempt to outright sneering.
That doesn't mean Cameron's behaved wisely.
Hey loser squad, come back into the fold.
Fuck off
That'll solve that problem of Euro Spies leaking to Russia
- On the one hand, the BoE might want to reduce interest rates (not that there's much scope for that!) or restart QE to counter the recessionary pressure from the Brexit uncertainty;
- But some of the Brexit uncertainty will come from and manifest itself as a fall in sterling (possibly leading to inflation, although that's not certain); QE or reducing interest rates would exacerbate that.
My guess is that they'd leave interest rates alone and consider QE, but there would be no good options.
There are horrible cravings associated with Heroin
And
You need ever more to get the same effect?
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/45-000-jobs-Bristol-region-risk-pull-Europe/story-29311767-detail/story.html
It is all very well printing this stuff, but where is Cameron's picture of the EU in ten years time?
At the moment the PIIGS are still outside the abattoir waiting for something to happen.
With respect to the polls, there will be some who salivate at the closeness of the latest findings, it helps sell papers, occupies air time on TV & radio and excites users on social media. But if the polls are far from the final result, there will a great deal of sound and fury with a bar stewards' inquiry.
(As an aside - when I went up to Cambridge in 1980, the Freshers guide included a list of all the societies (to meet at the society fair). One wag had included "The Cambridge Espionage Society" - promising wide travel and meeting interesting people - contact A Blunt (Trinity))
Glad you've joined in, I know a former addict, well several actually. You talk about not being able to get a fix, if you're (relatively) affluent, it will be a case of supply. In the case of plenty of wretched users its that they have no money and all manner of sordid activities ensue. I'm sure you know this, the majority on here won't have a clue what goes on.
Older people who tend to vote Leave will more likely be at home on Friday evenings than younger people who vote Remain.
That's about work patterns and social lives.
Apolitical, social research finds exactly the same thing when chasing responses.
The time to attempt and most likely obtain equal contact is Sunday or after 7pm Monday-Thursday. Saturday contact is more likely to meet with a brush-off.
All other most beneficial contacts will be determined by when people work, collect children from school, go out with friends and socialise etc.
But yes, you are right that it's not a magic bullet. The power of the BoE to mitigate the short-term economic damage would be very limited. And the power of the government to use a fiscal stimulus would also be limited, given that we're not exactly under-borroweed at the moment.
However, as of 2014, the Commission was handed a batch of new powers that it could plausibly use to do just this – powers already being mobilised against Poland’s elected, conservative leaders.
The Commission can now trigger a “rule of law mechanism” (Article 7 TEU) against nations it perceives as deviating from “the common constitutional traditions of all Member States.” Ultimately, “far-reaching sanctions” can be exerted, and a country can be stripped of all voting rights in the EU.
------------------
Do we really want to remain members of such a fascist organisation?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589
Response patterns are, in my experience, directly linked to things like age and employment circumstances.
For example, the idea that first calls on telephones generate a left bias isn't because lefties answer phones quickly.
It's because young people (generally left inclined) have mobiles with them all the time and are therefore easier to reach than landline owners. It's the age and social habits, not the political leaning, that makes the response so much quicker and generates the bias.
At 6pm on a Friday - who's more likely to be out socialising or commuting - pensioners or under 30s? Who is more likely to be tapping away at home on the internet? It's lifestyle, not politics.
I've cut my losses by trading out of my recent LEAVE bet at a loss and now I'm slightly red overall on this market. But it feels like the right call an no serious harm done.
Before the GE I was on the Tories for overall majority at about 6.5/1. I lost my nerve and closed that position at a small loss when nearly all the polls indicated the bet would lose. Maybe the same will happen this time. I don't think so. It feels like Project Fear has won and I will most likely be betting REMAIN because of Project Fear.
Apart from that...
Youve been telling us for weeks that the Tories will all be one big happy family and that anyone who thinks otherwise is a liar.
But there we are. Cameron will bang on about eleventy billion jobs being lost and East Anglia falling into the sea if we leave, we'll vote to Remain, and then millions of people will regret it.
Sticking with my long term 60/40 Remain victory prediction.
Now they are talking about taking revenge on the man who won the election and gave them the referendum they craved.
I am under no illusions that these people are stupid enough to destroy the party in order to unseat Cameron; they hate him more than the EU, that much is clear.
So it won't be a shock.
But I never expected these fukwits to be welcomed back into one big happy family. Boris' bum is oot the windae. IDS might finally STFU.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36367221
Scenario 1 for me is we Leave and Cameron walks, scenario 2 is Remain wins and Cameron is hounded out. One or the other will happen, I'm very relaxed.
I mean I understand the idea of lancing the European boil but wouldn't it have been better to keep boil in the singular rather than create a plague of them ?
Hence the classification cells filling up first, regardless of the day in question, with the most enthused.
This will cause polling problems if the level of turnout is such that politically enthused is not a representative sample of that particular cell given those who vote.
This is would account for the 1992 polls (high turnout of the politically unenthusiastic) and the 2010 lib dem polling surge (unrepresentative sample of enthusiastic Nick agreers).
Cameron gives the referendum Brexiteers have always wanted.
Brexiteers whine about it, and do their utmost to lose.
That bastard Cameron...
Does not compute
As I have said before the problem with the victory at all costs approach is eventually the bill turns up.
But they are serial losers. And whine about losing. And lose again. And whine about getting revenge for losing. Again.
By sacking the manager,,,
If any one of them was a better player, things might be different. When IDS is your star striker...
Clinton 48 .. Sanders 42
Clinton 38 .. Trump 35
Sanders 49 .. Trump 38
https://morningconsult.com/2016/05/donald-trump-tax-returns-poll-results/
Who's the fkwit ?
If Leave lose and the first thing that hardline Conservative Leaver MPs do is challenge their victorious leader, they will look utterly ridiculous*. If Leave loses, a period of quiet introspection as to why they lost is the appropriate reaction. The Prime Minister has done nothing that a good campaigner wouldn't do.
That's the problem really. Remain have campaigned effectively. Leave seem to have been taken aback by this and see it as somehow unfair. One wonders how they thought the referendum was going to be fought.
Anyway, the referendum is far from over. Instead of mewling like scalded cats, Leavers should be putting their backs into the campaign.
*(Still more utterly ridiculous)
Why is that so dreadful? It's not as though he is going to force the deal through, such that the ability to opt out of ever closer union is force throughable.
What else could or should he have done?
Cameron plays to win. He won the leadership, a general election, a majority, 2 referendums and wants to win this.
And the serial losers on the Tory right hate him for it. Smiling sweetly was never going to stop these idiots.
There is a large constituency who wants out of the EU. Kippers, the Moggster, IDS, et al. Fine, Dave realised he wasn't winning or might not win unless he gave these people something they wanted.
S'called politics.
Dave gave them the referendum, he won the election, we have a referendum, and now...there's all hell to pay.
Whingeing Leavers should grow up.
I was pondering the Tory 2015 position on internet panels earlier.
Is there a single reason why an actively engaged Tory who happens to be a Leaver is more likely to have signed up to a panel than an actively engaged Tory who happens to be a Remainer?
If not, why should we disbelieve internet poll findings on the Tory 2015 vote split?
He's about to go, the backwoodsmen owe him nothing, he leaves no tangible mark on the UK in his period of his Premiership and a long list of things he could have done but must now leave to someone else.
He leaves a party as divided if not more so than when he came in and will probably end his time on a low rather than a high.
I don't know what he thought he has won, but it seems to me he has been picking the wrong fights.
Nope, they want blood, Cameron has publicly patronised people who worked so hard to get him elected, they won't forgive him. Great fun to watch.
There ought to be a number of PhD theses out of this
once you've got passed the defensive jerk you end up agreeing it's bad party management.
1952
Eisenhower led throughout, and won
1960
Kennedy was nip-and-tuck with Nixon, and won narrowly
1968
Nixon was nip-and-tuck with Humphrey, and won narrowly
1988
Dukakis led May-Aug, but lost
2000
Bush led May-Aug, but lost the PV (vagaries of the college saw him elected)
2008
Obama was nip-and-tuck with McCain, and won convincingly
If there's an iron law there, I sure as hell can't discern it, other than no "challenger" who was convincingly behind in May has gone on to win [although there isn't an example of such a weak challenger, anyhow]...
In those circumstances, the Conservative Leaver hardcore will be cornered. They will have been shown to be in the minority twice running. The public (and the rest of their party) can reasonably ask them either to sit down and shut up or, if they find the views of the majority so repellent, to up sticks and leave.
They will need to decide who they feel more in harmony with, David Cameron (soon to be departing) or Nigel Farage. Not an easy choice.
sounds like Cameron's premiership to be honest