''Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.''
Wittgenstein and H*tler were class mates in Linz.
I lived in Vienna at the end of the 50s and early 60s - I was a kid so had no strong impressions, but my bilingual mother was convinced that the country was (then) pretty much divided as you say, with rather more than half in the "Why should we apologise?" camp. I'd have thought things had moved on a bit by now, but the underlying attitudes perhaps not.
I had a bad experience in the early 1990s ski-ing in Austria. One of our party was a black guy and you could hear the tutting as he got into the cable car.
Damning verdict from Crudas and the inquiry into why labour lost. Full report has now been published. Two highlights:
"A tsunami of aspirant voters sank Labour and the pollsters. Voters abandoned Labour because they believed Labour lacked economic credibility and the perception was that it would be profligate in government. In contrast, they trusted the Tories with their economic security."
No they didn't they deserted Labour because they thought Miliband was a bien pensant middle class liberal who had no idea or care for their hopes and lifestyle and because they were not prepared to countenance SNP in govenment. Economics may have persuaded a few but nowhere enough to give the Tories a majority.
"Labour is becoming dangerously out of touch with the electorate, and at the time of writing appears unwilling to acknowledge this growing estrangement."
@JGForsyth: So, BBC Question Time Brexit special is Cameron & Gove. But the two are appearing on different nights: Gove on Wednesday 15th, Cameron 19th
Damning verdict from Crudas and the inquiry into why labour lost. Full report has now been published. Two highlights:
"A tsunami of aspirant voters sank Labour and the pollsters. Voters abandoned Labour because they believed Labour lacked economic credibility and the perception was that it would be profligate in government. In contrast, they trusted the Tories with their economic security."
No they didn't they deserted Labour because they thought Miliband was a bien pensant middle class liberal who had no idea or care for their hopes and lifestyle and because they were not prepared to countenance SNP in govenment.
Evidence? Crudas and co have done the research, focus groups etc etc. The stuff you are describing was a factor but not the main, long term ones by the sound of it.
Mr 63. I really can't be arsed with this, however, for the last time.
Whatever your views. local knowledge, amazing betting insights on the Oldham byelection were, the unarguable fact is that on Betfair UKIP were approximately a 7/2 chance. You then asked whether it was possible to name a bigger shock than would have been the case had they won said byelection and suggested it would be impossible or at least difficult to do so.......so far so good?
Its since been established that several larger price selections have indeed obliged, and indeed that in many cases a larger swing than UKIP required has been achieved. Thus had Ukip prevailed it really, really, really wouldn't have been the political equivalent of Leicester winning the league.
This means you were WRONG, INCORRECT, ERRONEOUS in your assumption. Admit it, to yourself at least.
You are wasting your time, he's never wrong.
Winning Oldham West on a 17% would have been the biggest shock in the world ever despite the fact that UKIP had already recorded an 18% swing in next door Heywood and Middleton less than 12 months before!
Is nunu "the medisa always underestimate the right, Hofer will win" around?
Close but no cigar. There's nothing like a far-right candidate for mobilising the low-turnout left.
Quite amazed it wasn't a crushing victory like the La Pen election.
Imagine if
(1) After he norman and saxon invasions the majority population of the UK other than East Anglia had kept its celtic culture and continued to speak what we call Welsh
(2) the UK had lost the first world war and been broken up England being reduced to just the counties of East Anglia and the rest being newly independent states governed by majority non English speakers with English speakers being a relatively small ethnic minority that had overnight gone from being the governing class to a disliked and powerless ethnic minority.
(3) Large scale immigration of non English speakers from outside Europe had been occuring into East Anglia.
The very sharp rural / urban divide is the most striking thing I think.
And starting to become ever more striking in the UK as country towns continue expand rapidly with white people who used to live in cities - many of them have doubled in size in 30 or 40 years yet are still nearly 100% white - go figure.
Crikey, you be careful what you say on here about that issue. Other posters who have mentioned it have got into dreadful trouble and even been banned. The tens of thousands of new houses being built in places like Sussex are needed because their are lots and lots of local people who need them, got that. This has nothing to do with population increase caused by immigration and there is no such thing as white flight from the cities.
Is nunu "the medisa always underestimate the right, Hofer will win" around?
Close but no cigar. There's nothing like a far-right candidate for mobilising the low-turnout left.
Thinking cynically, it might actually be better for Hofers lot that he lost. The president has fairly limited powers and disenchantment would have set in. Plus the new president appears to be a pro immigration leftie in the Corbyn mould so he will wind up plenty of potential right wing voters in time for the general election in a year or two.
Thinking about it the fact that modern Austria exists at all was another Versailles error. Having broken it up they really ought to have put the rump into Germany rather than leaving a smallish rump state looking inwardly (particularly in the mountains) and licking their wounds. It really ought to be another German Lander or two.
Thinking about it the fact that modern Austria exists at all was another Versailles error. Having broken it up they really ought to have put the rump into Germany rather than leaving a smallish rump state looking inwardly (particularly in the mountains) and licking their wounds. It really ought to be another German Lander or two.
The french blocked it.
If German Austria had merged with Germany, Germany would have ended up with a bigger population than in 1914
Thinking about it the fact that modern Austria exists at all was another Versailles error. Having broken it up they really ought to have put the rump into Germany rather than leaving a smallish rump state looking inwardly (particularly in the mountains) and licking their wounds. It really ought to be another German Lander or two.
The french blocked it.
If German Austria had merged with Germany, Germany would have ended up with a bigger population than in 1914
It was also the French who most vociferously demanded the ludicrous levels of reparation that broke the Wiemar economy and was the other plank of Mr Hilter getting into power.
''Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.''
Wittgenstein and H*tler were class mates in Linz.
I lived in Vienna at the end of the 50s and early 60s - I was a kid so had no strong impressions, but my bilingual mother was convinced that the country was (then) pretty much divided as you say, with rather more than half in the "Why should we apologise?" camp. I'd have thought things had moved on a bit by now, but the underlying attitudes perhaps not.
I had a bad experience in the early 1990s ski-ing in Austria. One of our party was a black guy and you could hear the tutting as he got into the cable car.
I won't name the resort but its well known
I remember being struck by the warnings that 'Schwarzfahrer werden bestraft' in buses in Salzburg. (Fare dodgers literally translating to 'black travellers'.)
The very sharp rural / urban divide is the most striking thing I think.
And starting to become ever more striking in the UK as country towns continue expand rapidly with white people who used to live in cities - many of them have doubled in size in 30 or 40 years yet are still nearly 100% white - go figure.
Crikey, you be careful what you say on here about that issue. Other posters who have mentioned it have got into dreadful trouble and even been banned. The tens of thousands of new houses being built in places like Sussex are needed because their are lots and lots of local people who need them, got that. This has nothing to do with population increase caused by immigration and there is no such thing as white flight from the cities.
Possibly the context in which it is mentioned being rather more right wing than my context which is a fear for social cohesion in the future. Interestingly only non white ethnic minorities in my little town which have settled appear to be Zimbabweans - a place that in day to day matters is still culturally very British (Mugabe still lives in a road called Borrowdale Road next to the Royal Harate Sports Club & St Georges College and near the junction of the A4 and A5. Across the other side of the park is Smith Street.
Its a cultural not a racial issue, smalltowns tend to be more culturally homogenous than anonymous cities where there are so many people you can meet and associate with plently of people of whatever culture you are from and this makes it difficult for people not part of that culture to feel at home.
You also get mixed race couples where the spouse has integrated totally into English culture - something that women seem to be far more able to do than men.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
Thinking about it the fact that modern Austria exists at all was another Versailles error. Having broken it up they really ought to have put the rump into Germany rather than leaving a smallish rump state looking inwardly (particularly in the mountains) and licking their wounds. It really ought to be another German Lander or two.
Austria was originally called German Austria in 1918, but the Allies told them to rename themselves just plain Austria.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
@JGForsyth: So, BBC Question Time Brexit special is Cameron & Gove. But the two are appearing on different nights: Gove on Wednesday 15th, Cameron 19th
only because it had collapsed so much (down to 187,000 at the 2015 election that hardliners were a disproportionate number of those remaining and entryism via new SJWs and the £3ers was quite easy.
Corbyn wouldn't have won if the membership was still over a million or proably even over 500,000 at the last election.
It's a very long time since any poloitical party had a mllion-strong membership. But I don't think you're right, in any case, and I've known the party from the inside for decades. Corbyn was the only candidate offering a coherent alternative agenda, and people all the way across to the party centre-right felt we couldn't have another 5 years standing for almost nothing in particular.
One effect has been to make the centre-right look to its laurels and invest some effort in thinking what they're actually about. It's a work in progress, but they're making an effort, which will be a good thing in the longer term.
Thinking about it the fact that modern Austria exists at all was another Versailles error. Having broken it up they really ought to have put the rump into Germany rather than leaving a smallish rump state looking inwardly (particularly in the mountains) and licking their wounds. It really ought to be another German Lander or two.
Austria was originally called German Austria in 1918, but the Allies told them to rename themselves just plain Austria.
Indeed what we call Germany was officially (at first) the North German Empire
Austria being the East German Empire (the actual name for Austria is Osterreich ie Eastern Reich / Eastern Empire)
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
Why is that a disgrace? You don't like it, that's ok. But like "shameful" it seems a much overused word.
The very sharp rural / urban divide is the most striking thing I think.
And starting to become ever more striking in the UK as country towns continue expand rapidly with white people who used to live in cities - many of them have doubled in size in 30 or 40 years yet are still nearly 100% white - go figure.
Crikey, you be careful what you say on here about that issue. Other posters who have mentioned it have got into dreadful trouble and even been banned. The tens of thousands of new houses being built in places like Sussex are needed because their are lots and lots of local people who need them, got that. This has nothing to do with population increase caused by immigration and there is no such thing as white flight from the cities.
Possibly the context in which it is mentioned being rather more right wing than my context which is a fear for social cohesion in the future. Interestingly only non white ethnic minorities in my little town which have settled appear to be Zimbabweans - a place that in day to day matters is still culturally very British (Mugabe still lives in a road called Borrowdale Road next to the Royal Harate Sports Club & St Georges College and near the junction of the A4 and A5. Across the other side of the park is Smith Street.
Its a cultural not a racial issue, smalltowns tend to be more culturally homogenous than anonymous cities where there are so many people you can meet and associate with plently of people of whatever culture you are from and this makes it difficult for people not part of that culture to feel at home.
You also get mixed race couples where the spouse has integrated totally into English culture - something that women seem to be far more able to do than men.
Oh, dear. Now you have mentioned social cohesion. You really are treading on thin ice today, Mr. Bedfordshire. Social cohesion is regarded by many as the antithesis of a multi-cultural society and is therefore racist.
I am going to leave this discussion before I get into trouble for talking to you.
Thinking about it the fact that modern Austria exists at all was another Versailles error. Having broken it up they really ought to have put the rump into Germany rather than leaving a smallish rump state looking inwardly (particularly in the mountains) and licking their wounds. It really ought to be another German Lander or two.
Austria was originally called German Austria in 1918, but the Allies told them to rename themselves just plain Austria.
Indeed what we call Germany was officially (at first) the North German Empire
Austria being the East German Empire (the actual name for Austria is Osterreich ie Eastern Reich / Eastern Empire)
Naughty Iain Dale is tweeting stories of B&Q workers 'tipped over to leave' by the personal visit of the dear chancellor today.
Oh dear.
George has the common touch.
I'm only catching up on he campaign today -Ive been more inetrested in Austria - but looking at Cameron and Osborne today theyve gone bonkers. To me at least theyre coming across as more than a bit desperate.
Now watching BBC South and see the incident where a PR person puts their hand over the camera to shut down an interview with a B&Q staff person who asked a question. "The Treasury has stopped us from asking questions" was what B&Q told Peter Henly from the BBC.
Call that a local PR ballsup with not one minute of Cameron or Osborne on local news.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
You think the BBC is neutral in this??
Well, obviously not. I'm just about to write a complaint to them. We've discussed this topic before and come up with lots of ideas for different franchises and perhaps one day things will change. But right now the system is one person one vote for those aged over 18. For the BBC to have someone putting across the view that they're opinion matters more because of age is a disgrace. It is tantamount to trying to intimidate older voters.
@JGForsyth: So, BBC Question Time Brexit special is Cameron & Gove. But the two are appearing on different nights: Gove on Wednesday 15th, Cameron 19th
With so many postal votes why would you want to be last?
Reckons white flight is a sign of prosperity, and when offering Cornish voters (in a piece about English devolution) options he didn't even mention the idea of an English Parliament.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
That was the same argument 40 years ago I seem to recollect..
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
Why is that a disgrace? You don't like it, that's ok. But like "shameful" it seems a much overused word.
Does it need practice to come across as a simpleton or is it something that comes naturally to you?
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
That was the same argument 40 years ago I seem to recollect..
so all those youngsters who wanted to stay in now want to get out
I wonder how RumpEU will fill the coffers if we leave?
That's the only economic shock I can see at present and I suspect so do they. As regards a recession we will get one with bells on either way and nothing to do with the EU. Normal cycle innit...?
@JGForsyth: So, BBC Question Time Brexit special is Cameron & Gove. But the two are appearing on different nights: Gove on Wednesday 15th, Cameron 19th
With so many postal votes why would you want to be last?
Still better to go last.
Most postals will be cast before 15th June - so neither programme will be relevant to them.
The number who will vote between 15th and 19th will be a tiny % of total vote.
Whereas over 80% vote on the day - so better to go last.
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Guess we'll find out by 24th June.
A Gillian Duffy moment?
It was Gillian Duffy that prompted top politicians, particularly Cameron and Osborne, to stage "public" campaign events mainly in sheds, hangars and industrial estates, and only in front of workers (or party members). The theory was that workers wouldn't dare to criticise politicians whom their bosses had invited.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
That was the same argument 40 years ago I seem to recollect..
so all those youngsters who wanted to stay in now want to get out
Sort off. I was one of the ones who just missed being old enough to vote. It did strike me at the time that it's my future as well yet I have no say. On the other hand I think at that age the world and even national experience was limited so not sure I could or would have summed it all up. Of course we only really had Benelux then. probably better than others had the say.
Of course now we have a currency, national anthem, an EU army, three unelected presidents and the threat of thermo nuclear Armageddon if we vote the wrong way *
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH 6h6 hours ago Journos at PMs event in Eastleigh amazed at stage-management. @BandQ staff who asked public Qus stopped from talking
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Guess we'll find out by 24th June.
A Gillian Duffy moment?
It was Gillian Duffy that prompted top politicians, particularly Cameron and Osborne, to stage "public" campaign events mainly in sheds, hangars and industrial estates, and only in front of workers (or party members). The theory was that workers wouldn't dare to criticise politicians whom their bosses had invited.
Reckons white flight is a sign of prosperity, and when offering Cornish voters (in a piece about English devolution) options he didn't even mention the idea of an English Parliament.
Morriis. you're so right about Easton - a completely mixed-up PC Lefty. If I ever got my way with the BBC, he'd be one of the first out the door ....
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
That was the same argument 40 years ago I seem to recollect..
so all those youngsters who wanted to stay in now want to get out
Speaking only for myself, yes. I've come round to thinking that General de Gaulle was right.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
You think the BBC is neutral in this??
Well, obviously not. I'm just about to write a complaint to them. We've discussed this topic before and come up with lots of ideas for different franchises and perhaps one day things will change. But right now the system is one person one vote for those aged over 18. For the BBC to have someone putting across the view that they're opinion matters more because of age is a disgrace. It is tantamount to trying to intimidate older voters.
Eh? It's simply a point of view which people are free to agree with or not. It's not disgraceful for the BBC to include someone with that viewpoint - are you saying such views should be suppressed?
Female voters Trump down by 14 vs Clinton Male voters Trump up by 22 vs Clinton
In March this was
Trump down by 21 with women and up 5 with men vs Clinton.
Not only is Trump winning over women, Hillary is losing the male vote in droves. He stupid comments such as "women are the primary victims of war, they lose their husbands" or whatever inanity she came out with just shows how out of touch she is.
Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
Compared to 10 or more years of euro stagnation and decline.....
No, it's on top of the effect on the UK of any European stagnation and decline (and of course will also make the problem on the continent worse - they will also be affected).
Is nunu "the medisa always underestimate the right, Hofer will win" around?
Close but no cigar. There's nothing like a far-right candidate for mobilising the low-turnout left.
Lol. I said scratch that comment after the "prophet" said RodCrosby's model predicted the green guy would win. Anyhoo have you met a leaver in islington yet?
@faisalislam: 296 declared serious economists in Brexit debate All here - Leave on pg 4: current score 284 -8 to Remain: https://t.co/DRZDKGsDLV
Are there unserious ones ? Do they tell jokes and dress up in clown uniforms and call themselves George ?
Or is it more here's some economists who want to stay in ?
Gawd. Remain can't even reach par Thatcher.
They are in trouble.
It gets more complicated than that.
These are "declared" serious economists. How does that work ?
I get the economist bit, you sit a degree and pass. But then it appears there are two further stages firstly you get split in to serious and "having a laugh" categories. And then the serious ones have a ceremony of declaration. Presumably they get an owl and a book on gravitas and swear never to tell jokes for the rest of their lives.
But then what happens the unserious ones or the serious ones who don't manage to get declared serious ? We need more research.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
You think the BBC is neutral in this??
Well, obviously not. I'm just about to write a complaint to them. We've discussed this topic before and come up with lots of ideas for different franchises and perhaps one day things will change. But right now the system is one person one vote for those aged over 18. For the BBC to have someone putting across the view that they're opinion matters more because of age is a disgrace. It is tantamount to trying to intimidate older voters.
Eh? It's simply a point of view which people are free to agree with or not. It's not disgraceful for the BBC to include someone with that viewpoint - are you saying such views should be suppressed?
It is the lack of balance and equal time Nick. One example on Sunday was Pienaar's politics on R5. He had 35 minutes for two Labour REMAIN people Izzard and Burnham. Then later 3 mins for Kwarteng a Conservative LEAVE MP.
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Guess we'll find out by 24th June.
Osborne tells woman that she will not be able to employ a nanny after Brexit as she will be out of a job... What a disgusting little man.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
That was the same argument 40 years ago I seem to recollect..
so all those youngsters who wanted to stay in now want to get out
Speaking only for myself, yes. I've come round to thinking that General de Gaulle was right.
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Guess we'll find out by 24th June.
I've been thinking about how people will vote in EuroRef.
I think some Labourites will go with party loyalty, some Tories will go with Cameron loyalty and some will go with luvvie loyalty, hence the bizarre endorsements for Remain.
I don't think ordinary voters pay as much attention to the issues as posters here, but I am encouraged by Nick Palmer's reports of voters wishing to know more. In this light, I think the more transparent lies told by either campaign will come back to haunt them. And the more relentlessly those lies are pushed the more chance of voters twigging they are being taken for fools.
I can't remember who on PB said it, but the tactics used by Remain belong in the last week of a by-election, not with a month to go in a national election.
Hayley Barlow @Hayley_Barlow Nottinghamshire Police obtain 12-month extension to investigate @Anna_Soubry and @Mark_Spencer #electionexpenses. http://po.st/zRibZv Photo published for Police given extension to investigate two Nottinghamshire MPs over expenses fraud accusation
Narrow victory for Van der Bellen in Austria, a clear split along gender and class lines. Hofer won 60% of men, Van der Bellen 60% of women. Hofer also won 85% of manual workers, Van der Bellen 60% of white collar workers http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36362505
@faisalislam: 296 declared serious economists in Brexit debate All here - Leave on pg 4: current score 284 -8 to Remain: https://t.co/DRZDKGsDLV
Are there unserious ones ? Do they tell jokes and dress up in clown uniforms and call themselves George ?
Or is it more here's some economists who want to stay in ?
Gawd. Remain can't even reach par Thatcher.
They are in trouble.
It gets more complicated than that.
These are "declared" serious economists. How does that work ?
I get the economist bit, you sit a degree and pass. But then it appears there are two further stages firstly you get split in to serious and "having a laugh" categories. And then the serious ones have a ceremony of declaration. Presumably they get an owl and a book on gravitas and swear never to tell jokes for the rest of their lives.
But then what happens the unserious ones or the serious ones who don't manage to get declared serious ? We need more research.
Well.....If they were labour supporters they would not get a fecking owl that's for sure!
Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
Or how little or even no effect at all. Well, It's as accurate a statement as you just made.
No, there will certainly be a significant negative effect in the short to medium term ( a couple of years). That's just about the one thing we can say with great confidence. It's hardly a controversial point: of course businesses and investors will hold off investing in the UK whilst they wait to see how things pan out, and consumers will also be cautious.
In the most optimistic scenario, most of that lost investment/spending will just be deferred, not lost for ever. If we are lucky.
'Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.'
Perfect description of current Euro zone chaos.
Two years? The Eurozone has been in crisis for years. The mass migration into this country as acted a pressure release valve for Spain, Italy and France.
Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
Or how little or even no effect at all. Well, It's as accurate a statement as you just made.
No, there will certainly be a significant negative effect in the short to medium term ( a couple of years). That's just about the one thing we can say with great confidence. It's hardly a controversial point: of course businesses and investors will hold off investing in the UK whilst they wait to see how things pan out, and consumers will also be cautious.
In the most optimistic scenario, most of that lost investment/spending will just be deferred, not lost for ever. If we are lucky.
Getting the excuses in early for the next slowdown/recession... Blame it all on the referendum.
Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
Or how little or even no effect at all. Well, It's as accurate a statement as you just made.
No, there will certainly be a significant negative effect in the short to medium term ( a couple of years). That's just about the one thing we can say with great confidence. It's hardly a controversial point: of course businesses and investors will hold off investing in the UK whilst they wait to see how things pan out, and consumers will also be cautious.
In the most optimistic scenario, most of that lost investment/spending will just be deferred, not lost for ever. If we are lucky.
Mmmm.....Hold of investing in the 5th biggest world economy.
'Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.'
Perfect description of current Euro zone chaos.
Two years? The Eurozone has been in crisis for years. The mass migration into this country as acted a pressure release valve for Spain, Italy and France.
Indeed so. That doesn't seem to me to be a compelling reason to plunge our economy into the doldrums.
Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
Compared to 10 or more years of euro stagnation and decline.....
No, it's on top of the effect on the UK of any European stagnation and decline (and of course will also make the problem on the continent worse - they will also be affected).
Could you even conceive that an economy unshackled from the EU could operate in a more enterprising manner than being inside the EU? Are you an entrepreneur?
@faisalislam: 296 declared serious economists in Brexit debate All here - Leave on pg 4: current score 284 -8 to Remain: https://t.co/DRZDKGsDLV
Are there unserious ones ? Do they tell jokes and dress up in clown uniforms and call themselves George ?
Or is it more here's some economists who want to stay in ?
Gawd. Remain can't even reach par Thatcher.
They are in trouble.
It gets more complicated than that.
These are "declared" serious economists. How does that work ?
I get the economist bit, you sit a degree and pass. But then it appears there are two further stages firstly you get split in to serious and "having a laugh" categories. And then the serious ones have a ceremony of declaration. Presumably they get an owl and a book on gravitas and swear never to tell jokes for the rest of their lives.
But then what happens the unserious ones or the serious ones who don't manage to get declared serious ? We need more research.
Well.....If they were labour supporters they would get a fecking owl that's for sure!
yebbut Dave did PPE. The E stands for economics.
Ive never seen Dave declared as a serious economist. I suspect he's one of the taking the piss category. And this is the guy who's meant to be in charge. If Dave was serious he would have been on Scott Pasters list and he wasn't.
Ergo the whole remain campaign is based on shaky numbers. Chuckles Cameron is just making it up and buying whoopee cushions for the nation.
@Richard_Nabavi 'Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit. That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.' Perfect description of current Euro zone chaos.
Except the eurozone two more years of chaos is on a rolling timeframe.
Mark Easton doing a good job at trying to guilt trip elderly leavers into voting remain. Getting a youngster to say that they're going to live longer so they should have more of a say is a disgrace.
That was the same argument 40 years ago I seem to recollect..
so all those youngsters who wanted to stay in now want to get out
They have the benefit of experiencing the evolution of the EEC over the intervening 40 years.
Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
Or how little or even no effect at all. Well, It's as accurate a statement as you just made.
No, there will certainly be a significant negative effect in the short to medium term ( a couple of years). That's just about the one thing we can say with great confidence. It's hardly a controversial point: of course businesses and investors will hold off investing in the UK whilst they wait to see how things pan out, and consumers will also be cautious.
In the most optimistic scenario, most of that lost investment/spending will just be deferred, not lost for ever. If we are lucky.
Mmmm.....Hold of investing in the 5th biggest world economy.
Well It's a view I suppose.
Come off it, I'm hardly saying anything surprising.
I really can't get my head around the blind faith of Leavers that almost every single expert in the world, as well as simple common sense, are wrong. It's just extraordinary.
Still, the good news is that no-one can possibly claim voters weren't warned.
"How do other people feel about Cameron saying those voting Leave are immoral?"
Not bothered in the slightest. Lying Is immoral, isn't it? The mirror's over there Mr Cameron.
"He thought he'd be rather good at it." Politics, that is, and he was in a Tony Blair kinda way. Jezza is bad at it and is also hard left (i.e. a Trot).
People like Frank Field, Priti Patel and even the Badger are also poor politicians, but I know who I'd trust most. They will never be party leaders for that reason.
Any good party leaders? Kinnock could have been a lot worse and a sober Charlie could have been good. Heath was a loon, but that may be my bias showing.
Worst ones? Brown and Miliband must rate highly and you thought Labour couldn't make things worse ... but they could. I even voted Labour when Worzel Gummidge was leader, but he was a patriot at least.
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH 6h6 hours ago Journos at PMs event in Eastleigh amazed at stage-management. @BandQ staff who asked public Qus stopped from talking
Those public debates are going to be fun. It is going to be almost impossible to gag the audience for Cameron.
Comments
Close but no cigar. There's nothing like a far-right candidate for mobilising the low-turnout left.
I won't name the resort but its well known
"Labour is becoming dangerously out of touch with the electorate, and at the time of writing appears unwilling to acknowledge this growing estrangement."
At least Gove will talk sense.
Winning Oldham West on a 17% would have been the biggest shock in the world ever despite the fact that UKIP had already recorded an 18% swing in next door Heywood and Middleton less than 12 months before!
(1) After he norman and saxon invasions the majority population of the UK other than East Anglia had kept its celtic culture and continued to speak what we call Welsh
(2) the UK had lost the first world war and been broken up England being reduced to just the counties of East Anglia and the rest being newly independent states governed by majority non English speakers with English speakers being a relatively small ethnic minority that had overnight gone from being the governing class to a disliked and powerless ethnic minority.
(3) Large scale immigration of non English speakers from outside Europe had been occuring into East Anglia.
Thats Austria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GuBdvA7Qus
Actually it was a banned TV campaign.
Directly behind him is the battle bus and over his left shoulder you can clearly see the sign....
"Emergency exit, break glass."
Oh dear.
If German Austria had merged with Germany, Germany would have ended up with a bigger population than in 1914
Its a cultural not a racial issue, smalltowns tend to be more culturally homogenous than anonymous cities where there are so many people you can meet and associate with plently of people of whatever culture you are from and this makes it difficult for people not part of that culture to feel at home.
You also get mixed race couples where the spouse has integrated totally into English culture - something that women seem to be far more able to do than men.
Iain Dale @IainDale 18m18 minutes ago
B&Q employee ring me to tell me the 'Chancellor tipped me over to Leave camp'
EXC: "You dont live in the real world" B&Q worker blasts Chancellor after "stage managed" event [AUDIO] https://audioboom.com/boos/4602914-you-dont-live-in-the-real-world-what-b-q-worker-told-chancellor?utm_campaign=detailpage&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter …
12 retweets 7 likes
One effect has been to make the centre-right look to its laurels and invest some effort in thinking what they're actually about. It's a work in progress, but they're making an effort, which will be a good thing in the longer term.
Austria being the East German Empire (the actual name for Austria is Osterreich ie Eastern Reich / Eastern Empire)
I am going to leave this discussion before I get into trouble for talking to you.
It was, of course, Austria-Hungary 1867 to 1918.
Call that a local PR ballsup with not one minute of Cameron or Osborne on local news.
Reckons white flight is a sign of prosperity, and when offering Cornish voters (in a piece about English devolution) options he didn't even mention the idea of an English Parliament.
All here - Leave on pg 4: current score 284 -8 to Remain: https://t.co/DRZDKGsDLV
https://audioboom.com/boos/4602914-you-dont-live-in-the-real-world-what-b-q-worker-told-chancellor?utm_campaign=detailpage&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
There's something quite patronising about the Remain campaign that takes people for fools and presumes to think they're not intelligent people capable of forming their own judgment.
Guess we'll find out by 24th June.
Or is it more here's some economists who want to stay in ?
That's the only economic shock I can see at present and I suspect so do they.
As regards a recession we will get one with bells on either way and nothing to do with the EU. Normal cycle innit...?
They'll live longer ... as long as they don't become porkers.
Sort of says he has lost it. this will be morality a la New Labour "doing the right thing"
Usually it wasn't.
Most postals will be cast before 15th June - so neither programme will be relevant to them.
The number who will vote between 15th and 19th will be a tiny % of total vote.
Whereas over 80% vote on the day - so better to go last.
Of course now we have a currency, national anthem, an EU army, three unelected presidents and the threat of thermo nuclear Armageddon if we vote the wrong way *
* inserted solely to wind up Mr Meeks
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH 6h6 hours ago
Journos at PMs event in Eastleigh amazed at stage-management. @BandQ staff who asked public Qus stopped from talking
They are in trouble.
I was surprised how much it wanted to vote leave just to spite him.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.
WomensEqualityUK @WEP_UK
"Without sex + relationships education girls are facing a lifetime of online abuse: @cathynewman blogs http://tinyurl.com/hqg98cb"
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-n577726
These are "declared" serious economists. How does that work ?
I get the economist bit, you sit a degree and pass. But then it appears there are two further stages firstly you get split in to serious and "having a laugh" categories. And then the serious ones have a ceremony of declaration. Presumably they get an owl and a book on gravitas and swear never to tell jokes for the rest of their lives.
But then what happens the unserious ones or the serious ones who don't manage to get declared serious ? We need more research.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1334000/1334131.stm
The politicians don't like meeting the great British public.
'Two years (at least) of business uncertainty = big economic hit.
That's basically all there is to it; no-one really knows how big it will be.'
Perfect description of current Euro zone chaos.
I think some Labourites will go with party loyalty, some Tories will go with Cameron loyalty and some will go with luvvie loyalty, hence the bizarre endorsements for Remain.
I don't think ordinary voters pay as much attention to the issues as posters here, but I am encouraged by Nick Palmer's reports of voters wishing to know more. In this light, I think the more transparent lies told by either campaign will come back to haunt them. And the more relentlessly those lies are pushed the more chance of voters twigging they are being taken for fools.
I can't remember who on PB said it, but the tactics used by Remain belong in the last week of a by-election, not with a month to go in a national election.
Hayley Barlow @Hayley_Barlow
Nottinghamshire Police obtain 12-month extension to investigate @Anna_Soubry and @Mark_Spencer #electionexpenses. http://po.st/zRibZv
Photo published for Police given extension to investigate two Nottinghamshire MPs over expenses fraud accusation
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36362505
In the most optimistic scenario, most of that lost investment/spending will just be deferred, not lost for ever. If we are lucky.
Well It's a view I suppose.
Ive never seen Dave declared as a serious economist. I suspect he's one of the taking the piss category. And this is the guy who's meant to be in charge. If Dave was serious he would have been on Scott Pasters list and he wasn't.
Ergo the whole remain campaign is based on shaky numbers. Chuckles Cameron is just making it up and buying whoopee cushions for the nation.
As seen today in Austria postal votes are important.
Hhmmn.
I really can't get my head around the blind faith of Leavers that almost every single expert in the world, as well as simple common sense, are wrong. It's just extraordinary.
Still, the good news is that no-one can possibly claim voters weren't warned.
"How do other people feel about Cameron saying those voting Leave are immoral?"
Not bothered in the slightest. Lying Is immoral, isn't it? The mirror's over there Mr Cameron.
"He thought he'd be rather good at it." Politics, that is, and he was in a Tony Blair kinda way. Jezza is bad at it and is also hard left (i.e. a Trot).
People like Frank Field, Priti Patel and even the Badger are also poor politicians, but I know who I'd trust most. They will never be party leaders for that reason.
Any good party leaders? Kinnock could have been a lot worse and a sober Charlie could have been good. Heath was a loon, but that may be my bias showing.
Worst ones? Brown and Miliband must rate highly and you thought Labour couldn't make things worse ... but they could. I even voted Labour when Worzel Gummidge was leader, but he was a patriot at least.
So there's not many I 'd be insulted by.