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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Re-formatting the EURef polling table so it strips out the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Re-formatting the EURef polling table so it strips out the don’t knows
The election is a month today and postal votes to overseas addresses are starting to be mailed out. To coincide I’m switching my regular polling table to election mode stripping out the don’t knows and just give the figures of those who had a voting intention.
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1.52
Still a few more votes to come, I think...
Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_may_2016_general_election
I have it solid blue in my model !
Van Der Bellen has now taken over by some hundreds with the final constituencies still to be added.
"Although the working class votes for Labour seem to have fallen, it is not necessarily the case that they are gone for good. Labour does still have a working class lead in people who identify with a party. However, many of their identifiers either didn’t vote or defected to another party in 2015. "
"Nonetheless because of the large scale shifts in occupational structure in Britain, only 34% of the UKIP vote comes from the traditional working class (routine and semi-routine NS-SEC classes). In fact nearly 20% of UKIP’s support comes from the lower professional class, more than from any other single source."
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/the-new-face-of-british-class-voting/#.V0MGOL76948
Wawrinka is seeded 3 and in Murray's half of the draw.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
Can Predictit PLEASE be released in UK !
There is a lot of interest and the RO's office at the Council has said it has been overwhelmed with queries from electors. So looks like a high turnout can be expected.
Sturgeon blasts the Treasury's "overblown" Brexit claims "we should be trying to enthuse people about this vote, not trying to scare them"
Ian Wishart
Exclusive: Euro area to lend Greece 11bn euros in next bailout disbursement
https://t.co/Bd7P8FrGwT
System working well, please send more money.
Lending money to Greece is like throwing it out of a hot air balloon.
Twitter seems to think Hofer has lost.
It wasn't wholly absurd though as it turned out, it was wrong.
But I'd still like to know the numbers
Van der Bellen now has 12,855 vote lead
Only Salzburg, Innsbruck, Bregenz and Feldkirch to come
Van der Bellen hat nun 12.855 Stimmen Vorsprung
Es fehlen nur noch Salzburg Stadt, Innsbruck, Bregenz und Feldkirch
0.5%
Equivalent of 200 votes in a UK parliamentary election.
The Greens' preferred candidate is now president. But they only poll ~13% nationally. The FPOe by contrast polls ~33% nationally.
The FPOe is the most popular party in Austria. The two centre parties poll at ~23% each - 10% lower than the FPOe. (7/)
Nothing like a close loss to get supporters out for the next election.
Austria's prefered candidate has won.
The Hofer came bloody close.
Will Project Terror start to crack the Leave base, or will Leave finally sort itself out?
Who knows, but just over 4 weeks to go.
That gets little traction because most people know we can always have another referendum further down the line if things progress in a direction we don't like.
Remain is the status quo unless we choose otherwise, we cannot be forced to join the Euro,, forced to join Schengen or be forced to agree to Turkey joining etc etc.
The old palm-in-front-of-the-lens moment that'll definitely get broadcast and look really, really bad https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/734720626204807168 …
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-fec-filings/may/table/
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/734750320820146176
When it comes to who's going to win the EU referendum, the best people to ask are the bookies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/23/the-polls-suggest-a-tight-race-in-the-eu-referendum-but-is-this/
"Of course I 'm sad ," writes the FPÖ candidate on Facebook
I was sent this today. While correlation doesn't equal causation, there may have been some effect from Trump's "crooked Hillary" name.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36362505
John Baron MP speaks for A LOT of Conservative MP saying the Treasury report shows "project fear has reached a new low" #EUref
He did come close, but he was expected to win.
Nobody got rich backing odds on shots ante post, great PR for Ladbrokes, well done Matthew Shaddick.
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet
Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
"Is it really possible for the Treasury to state as facts what would happen to the economy after Brexit?
No. Contrary to the impression given by some ministers, the Treasury document isn’t really a forecast. It’s an assessment of what might happen in just two different post-referendum scenarios. This is where the trouble starts..."
And
"In the “shock” scenario, the recession is about as mild as possible, and much less severe than any recession in living memory: GDP falls by 0.1 per cent in each quarter starting in July 2016. Given the natural variation in GDP figures and the world economy, it’s perfectly possible that even small changes in the economic outlook could push some of those numbers into positive territory, meaning a recession was averted. And the Vote Leave campaign notes that this “year-long recession” would only reduce the overall size of the economy to the level seen at the end of 2015.
No, I thought not.